RICHT

South Korea

Comeback of the Democratic Party – Defeat for Grand National Party

Executive Summary

In the local elections on June 2, 2010, the opposition Democratic Party scored a victory

POLITISCHER SONDERBE POLITISCHER unexpected in this size, and the ruling Grand National Party suffered a defeat seen widely influenced as well by an unpopular flagship regional policy focusing on the restoration of four rivers as well as discontent with the tensions on the Korean peninsula. The Democratic Party, which was in most areas in a coalition with other successor parties of the former center-left government of late presidents Dae-Jung and Roh Moo-Hyun, won 7 out of 16 races for governors of provinces and mayors of major cities, compared to 3 in the election 2006. The Grand National Party is halved to six from 12, the smaller right-wing Liberty Forward Party of the GNP renegade Lee Hoi-Chang won the mayor in and 2 are independent, but closer to the opposition. However, the two core mayoral races in and Gyeonggi-Do were won by the GNP candidates, though in Seoul in a tight race. Gangwon-Do, the partner province of Hanns- Seidel-Foundation as well as Upper Franconia, a former stronghold of the GNP, now is governed by the Democratic Party. Another surprise is the election victory of an independent candidate close to late president Roh Moo-Hyun over the former Minister of Public Administration and Security of the Lee administration, Lee Dalgon, in another former stronghold of GNP, South Province.

Zusammenfassung

Die Originaldaten finden sich so nur im Koreanischen,(Korean National Election Commission, www.nec.go.kr ), eine englische Fassung der Webseite zur Wahl findet sich auf: http://www.nec.go.kr/engvote/news/news.jsp

Die Graphiken wurden von Rhee Jong-Han nach Originaldaten der Koreanischen Wahlkommission erstellt.

Bei den Kommunalwahlen am 2. Juni 2010 konnte die oppositionelle Demokratische Partei (DP) einen in dieser Höhe unerwarteten Sieg einfahren, während die regierende Grand National Party eine Niederlage erlitt, die nach Ansicht vieler Beobachter sowohl an einer unpopulären Regionalpolitik beruht, die eine Restaurierung von vier der wichtigsten Flüsse Koreas zum Ziel hat, als auch an den erhöhten Spannungen auf der koreanischen Halbinsel. Die DP, die in den meisten Regionen ein Wahlbündnis mit kleineren Nachfolgeparteien aus der früheren Mitte-Links- Bewegung der verstorbenen Präsidenten Kim Dae-Jung und Roh Moo-Hyun eingegangen war, konnte 7 der 16 Rennen für Posten als Provinzgouverenur oder Bürgermeister der großen Städte für sich entscheiden, gegenüber 3 im Jahr 2006. Die GNP wurde von 12 auf 6 halbiert, die kleinere Liberty Forward Partei des GNP-Rebellen Lee Hoi-Chang kam auf einen Sitz in Daejeon und zwei siegreiche Kandidaten waren unabhängig, allerdings eher der Opposition nahestehend. Die beiden wichtigsten Rennen jedoch, um den Bürgermeisterposten von Seoul und die Gouverneursposten von Gyeonggi-Do wurden von der GNP für sich entschieden, wenn auch im

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Fall von Seoul nur knapp. Die Gangwon-Provinz, Partnerprovinz der Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung sowie des Regierungsbezirks Oberfranken, eine frühere Hochburg der GNP, ist nun von einem DP- Gouverneur regiert. Eine andere Überraschung war der Wahlsieg eines unabhängigen Kandidaten, der dem früheren Präsidenten Roh Moo-Hyun sehr nahestand, gegen den früheren Innenminister der Lee Myung-Bak Regierung, Lee Dalgon, in einer anderen früheren Hochburg der GNP, der Süd-Gyeongsan-Provinz.

1. Overview

In the last local elections in 2006, GNP had won in 12 places (mayor and governor level) out of 16 places. DP only won in 3 places, and there was only one independent elected for the governor of Jeju. (the count for DP included the , which is now DP after the consolidation.) On the other hand, in the current elections in 2010, GNP won only in 6 places, which are half of what it had won in 2006. In addition, DP won in 7 places which is one place more than GNP. There are two governors who are elected as independent candidates in Gyeongnam province and Jeju Island. Also, LFP won place for the . DP gained four places from GNP (, Gangwon province, Chungbuk province, and Chungnam province). LFP won a place for the mayor of Daejeon. Below the table for the result of elections in 2006/2010 provided.

Local Election in 2006 Local Election in 2010 Seoul Oh Sehoon (GNP) Seoul Oh Sehoon (GNP) Incheon Ahn Sangsu (GNP) Incheon Song Yeonggil (DP) Daejeon Park Sunghyo (GNP) Daejeon Yeom Hongchul (LFP) Kim Beomil (GNP) Daegu Kim Beomil (GNP) Park Mengwoo (GNP) Ulsan Park Mengwoo (GNP) Heo Namsik (GNP) Busan Heo Namsik (GNP) Kwangju Park Gwangtae (DP) Kwangju Kang Woontae (DP) Kyonggi Prov. Kim Moonsu (GNP) Kyonggi Prov. Kim Moonsu (GNP) Gangwon Prov. Kim Jinseon (GNP) Gangwon Prov. Lee Kwangjae (DP) Chungbuk Prov. Jeong Wootaek (GNP) Chungbuk Prov. Lee Sijong (DP) Chungnam Prov. Lee Wanku (GNP) Chungnam Prov. Ahn Heuijung (DP) Jeonbuk Prov. Kim Wanjoo (DP) Jeonbuk Prov. Kim Wanjoo (DP) Jeonnam Prov. Park Joonyeong (DP) Jeonnam Prov. Park Joonyeong (DP) Gyeongbuk Prov. Kim Kwanyong (GNP) Gyeongbuk Kim Kwanyong (GNP) Prov. Gyeongnam Kim Taeho (GNP) Gyeongnam Kim Dookwan (Ind.) Prov. Prov. Jeju Kim Taehwan (Ind.) Jeju Woo Keunmin (Ind.)

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For the election in Seoul, Oh Sehoon (GNP) got re-elected for his second term of the mayor, but the competition with Han Myeongsook (DP) was very intense, where Oh had 47.4% of the votes, and Han had 46.8%. For the election in Incheon, Ahn Sangsoo (GNP) could not be re- elected; Song Yeonggil (DP) won in the election with 52.7% of the votes.For the election in Kyonggi Province, Kim Moonsu (GNP) got re-elected for his second term of the governor with 52.2% of the votes while Yoo Simin (DP) had 47.8%. Candidate Lee Dalgon (GNP) did not win in the Gyeongnam Province. Independent candidate, Kim Dookwan, won for the governor of Gyeongnam Province with 53.5% of the votes while Lee had 46.5%.

2. Analysis of the vote

To put the election results in perspective, a number of considerations are important: The five most important are discussed here, though, being a regional and local election, this cannot really include all factors often prevailing on the local and regional level. First, the results of the preceding election: It can hardly be called a yardstick, since it was taken when unpopularity of then-president Roh Moo-Hyun was highest. The landslide victory in 2006 now led to the relatively strong downfall of the GNP. However, given that GNP is prevailing in the two most populous regions, Seoul and Gyeonggi-Do, the current situation seems more to be a return to normalcy, with roughly both major parties in a draw, though a normalcy hurting the government and strengthening the opposition. In this sense it is a balancing vote, but it is not really a verdict on Lee Myung-Bak’s government or agenda. This is also clear from the result in Daejeon, where the Liberty Forward Party won, an opposition party to Lee Myung-Bak, but on the right wing, not on the left wing.

Second, the balancing effect. It is typical for Korea, but also for other countries to hand out warnings to the government (for a number of reasons, see below) in a mid-term election. This is the more true since Korea has all the regional and local elections on the same day. Indeed, the political landscape is now more balanced, but again, it was not a landslide opposition victory as the 2006 election had been. Generally, it can be said that national policy reasons played an important role for the voter mobilization, in the case of GNP voters mainly in form of concerns on the economy, in the case of DP voters mainly related to “getting even with the 2MB government” (the unpopular government of Lee Myung-Bak), in particular in the wake of the first anniversary of the suicide of late president Roh Moo-Hyun.

Third, domestic policy reasons. The regional policy agenda in Korea always has particular importance due to regional imbalances between the capital region (Seoul, Gyeonggi province, and Incheon) and the poorer other regions as well as the regional adversity of Southeastern (Yeongnam) and Southwestern (Honam) regions. In Korea, regional policy mainly means policy of the center vis-à-vis the regions, since material autonomy of provinces and local authorities is rather small, most of the money spent on regional development comes from central government coffers. The flagship regional development project of the Lee Myung-Bak government is the four rivers restoration programme, a programme to restore and improve the environment, the economic use and the living condition along four major rivers in the country. Many see this project as a rather unsuccessful successor to the original plan of President Lee to build a grand canal through the country. Environmentalists fear that the project is mainly aiming at helping local and national construction companies, at the expense of the environment the project claims to improve. Another major domestic policy issue working in favour of the opposition is the decision of the Lee administration to end the plans to build a new capital (or, in a later phase, a new administrative city) in South Chungcheon province. The project was a project started by his predecessor, Roh Moo-Hyun, who hoped to bind voters in the region, which had traditionally voted for the now long-defunct . Lee Myung-Bak originally promised to honour the decision to build the new capital, but in the wake of rising costs and political opposition changed this plan, to the immense anger of voters there and against opposition in his own party, most prominently from former GNP chairwoman Park Geun-Hye. A third important domestic policy factor is the mobilization of mainly left-leaning voters in the wake of the first

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anniversary of the suicide of Roh Moo-Hyun. While there had been moderate protests and mobilization in the aftermath of his death, it could now for the first time be expressed by the vote. A forth important domestic policy reason is the debate on educational policies. Among the elected posts in the vote of June 2nd is also the post of education chief on the provincial or city level. These officials have a tremendous influence, being in charge of schools and teachers. Until the vote, all education chiefs but one in Gyeonggi province had been conservative, now only 10 remain conservative, with in particular Seoul and Gyeonggi province education chief from the left. While the Lee Myung-Bak government was committed, ultimately unsuccessfully, to reduce the influence of costly private tutoring (hagwons) on the school system, it also fought against far- left leaning teachers’ unions. In the election, promises of free school meals for all children regardless of the income of parents proved to be a popular argument of left-leaning candidates.

Fourth, the North Korea factor. The sinking of the South Korean navy corvette on March 26, which according to an international investigation team was due to a North Korean torpedo, and the rising tension on the Korean Peninsula in its aftermath did not have a mobilizing effect for conservative voters. On the contrary, the verbally strong, but in deeds rather weak answer of the Lee Myoung-Bak administration – simply due to the fact that any stronger answer leading to serious consequences is for a number of economic and political reasons not desirable and almost impossible in a democracy – dismayed conservatives. At the same time the verbally tense state between the two Koreas mobilized voters wanting to express their support for former champions of rapprochement policies of the former Roh Moo-Hyun government, which now were candidates for prominent provincial governor posts.

Fifth, local factors. In a number of cases, local factors played an important role. This could be related to the home town advantage of candidates (e.g. the surprise DP winner in South Gyeongsan province) or other reasons rooted in local politics. Though these reasons were less visible in the outcome of the high-profile races of gubernatorial posts, they influenced the consistence of local and regional Parliaments, with a large number of independent candidates elected.

3. Effects of the vote

The vote was, to some extent rightly, perceived as a mid-term evaluation of the Lee Myoung-Bak government and, in the volatile political scene of Korea, was almost surely to be followed by personal consequences. The mid-term evaluation was negative, and in the wake of this judgment the consequences followed: Presidential Chief of Staff Chung Chung-Kil, GNP chairman Chung Mong-Joon as well as GNP secretary-general Chung Byung-Kook resigned together with other members of the GNP board, while the Parliamentary leadership remained intact. Kim Moo-sung, the floor leader, will lead the party as acting head of the crisis committee, until a new leadership is elected.

As for the general regional voting patterns, regionalism remains a strong aspect of voting behaviour, however, less strong maybe than in the past, as the examples of South Gyeongsan province and Gangwon province show, where special influences led to atypical voting. The most interesting is the analysis of the swing capital region (Seoul, Gyeonggi province, Incheon), since here more than half of the South Korean voters live. The victory for an opposition candidate in Incheon means and two relatively close races in Gyeonggi province and in particular in Seoul mean that the capital region remains a swing region. However, the double GNP victory in Seoul and Gyeonggi province, with around 20 million people, also shows that the result has not been a crushing defeat for GNP, rather a strong correction. The victory of DP in South and North Chungcheon province means that the smaller right-wing Liberty Forward Party, which could only score in Daejeon (the large city in mid of the Chungcheon provinces) cannot be sure of a regional foothold, which would guarantee its survival as it had done so for the equally right-wing ULD. However, the split of Daejeon and the Chungcheon provinces also shows that the region is not a natural home-turf of the opposition in terms of political inclination (versus voting motivated by regional considerations).

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In terms of presidential policies in the future not too many changes will be made, despite widespread initial rhetoric of “humbly receiving the vote of the people”. The four river restoration project had been unpopular in the past, but the planning and actions are so far progressed that no complete reversal or stop is conceivable. North Korea policy has been tough, but only in words, and in reality remarkably soft, after the Cheonan incident. The major cooperation project of the Koreas, Gaesong industrial complex, will probably remain working, though under less auspicious conditions, as also North Korea seems unwilling to change the status of Gaesong. Also, it cannot be spoken of a lame duck effect for President Lee (as was the case for President Roh in 2006). At least one major political event will be upcoming in November, the G20 summit in Seoul, and President Lee still possesses a clear parliamentary majority (though one rather poorly used in the first half of his presidency). Among the projects faces stronger opposition now will be the revised plan for (the planned administrative city turned business city) and the constitutional revision. Also, by-elections in July will probably see a similar weakening of the government (in absence of unforeseen new developments) as the local elections. Market reforms will equally face stronger opposition.

There are, additionally, major implications for the next presidential elections. On the government side, the resignation of Chung Mong-Joon of the Hyundai dynasty means that one important potential candidate will probably have left the field. Also, the defeat of the GNP in the provinces including Daejeon means that a candidate with a more palpable political concept to these crucial regions might be elected and that could mean that the chances of Park Geun-Hye, daughter of the former authoritarian ruler Park Chung-Hee and former chairwoman of GNP, are rising. She had been in clear opposition to the remodeled plan to build a company city instead of an administrative city in South Chuncheon province. On the opposition side, in particular the chances of former prime minister Han Myung-Seok, who surprisingly lost only at a very small margin in the crucial Seoul mayoral race, have risen considerably, while Ryu Shi-Min in Gyeonggi province did relatively worse. For the Democratic Party (DP) as a whole the election means a clear comeback. Until now the opposition is divided into 2-3 major successor parties of the Uri party and other left-leaning groups, plus the far-left Democratic Labour Party, which did not and probably will not be part of the center-left government for the foreseeable future. The DP has now the challenge to consolidate the opposition on the basis of the election victory. If it can achieve this, the DP will emerge as well-positioned for the next elections with current DP chairman Chung Se-Kyun or former Prime Minister Han Myung-Seok as potential candidates. Overall, the number of swing voters is estimated to be as high as forty percent, and all predictions made on this basis are to be taken with extreme caution.

4. Regional and local election in Gangwon Province

Gangwon province is of particular interest for Hanns-Seidel-Foundation as a partner province since 2006 and also as the partner province of Upper Franconia since 2007. Gangwon province has traditionally been a stronghold of the GNP and despite the election victory of governor Lee Kwang-Jae of Democratic Party and a certain weakening compared to the last election continues to be dominated by GNP or by independent, but rather conservative candidates, like in the case of our partner county, Goseong County.Lee Kwangjae has won for the governor of Gangwon Province with 54.1% of the votes while Lee Gyejin (GNP) had 45.9%. In addition, for the County Chief elections in border areas of Gangwon Province, Goseong-gun, Yanggu-gun, Inje-gun, and Cheolwon-gun, DP did not win in any of the places, while GNP won in Yanggu and Cheolwon. Jeon Changbeom (GNP) won in the County Chief election in Yanggu without competition since he was the only candidate for the Yanggu-County Chief. Jeong Hojo (GNP) won in Cheolwon with 45.9% of the votes. The current Goseong-County Chief, Hwang Jongkook (Ind.), got re-elected for the County Chief of Goseong with 44.2% of the votes. Lee Kisoon (Ind.) got elected in Inje with 44.9% of the votes. Out of 18 areas (at city- and gun-level elections), GNP won 10 places in Gangwon Province, DP 4 places, and there are 4 independent elected including Hwang and Lee in Goseong and Inje.

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During the Gangwon province election campaign, Lee Kwang-Jae played upon his image as confidant of the late Roh Moo-Hyun as well as promised to create new jobs by public works as well as attracting new companies. The defeated candidate of GNP, Lee Gyejin, focused on social integration of the people in the province and making Gangwon province a special self-governing province with increased autonomy. An incident during the election campaign, when the father of Lee Kwang-Jae was severely beaten by a madman, played ultimately in his favour, as among younger voters his pro-Roh Moo-Hyun image in the wake of the first anniversary of Roh’s suicide. In local councils and for county chiefs and mayors, the trend was however not so clear. Along the border area, GNP or independent conservative candidates clearly managed a victory. This development, which could also be seen along the border in Gyeonggi province, was at least partly related to the heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the (verbally) tough response by President Lee. In , local reasons led to the election of a DP mayor and to a strong decrease in GNP councilors and a rise of DP councilors, which however remained smaller than the GNP. Among these local reasons is that the hope of Wonju to become a hub of the Korean medical equipment was crushed when the government designated Gangwon province as a region for leisure industry.

Party1 distribution of Gangwon province and its metropolitan and municipal governments and councils (2006-2010)2 1. Councils

2006 2010 GNP 33 20

DP 2 12

DLP 1 0

Ind. 3 6

Vacant 1 -

Total 40 38

Note that the provincial council includes 4 members elected by party lists, which were not yet officially reported on June 3rd. *Gangwon province mayor: Lee Kwang Jae (DP)

1 Abbreviations: Grand National Party-GNP, Democratic Party-DP, Democratic Labour Party-DLP, Individual-Ind. 2 Graph indicates election results of 2010

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2006 2010 GNP 5 4

DP 1 1

DLP 0 0

Ind. 1 1

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

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2006 2010 -si council GNP 14 11

DP 1 1

DLP 0 0 GNP DP Ind. 3 4 Ind Vacant 0 0

Total 18 16

2006 2010 GNP 5 6

DP 1 0

DLP 0 0

Ind. 1 1

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 7

2006 2010 GNP 5 5

DP 0 0

DLP 0 0

Ind. 3 2

Vacant 0 0

Total 8 7

8

2006 2010 GNP 3 3

DP 3 1

DLP 0 0

Ind. 1 2

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

2006 2010 GNP 14 10

DP 5 7

DLP 0 0

Ind. 2 1

Vacant 0 0

Total 21 18

2006 2010 GNP 18 10

DP 2 9

DLP 0 0

Ind. 2 0

Vacant 0 0

Total 22 19

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2006 2010 GNP 5 3

DP 1 0

DLP 0 0

Ind. 1 3

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

2006 2010 GNP 6 5

DP 0 0

DLP 0 0

Ind. 1 1

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

2006 2010 GNP 3 4

DP 2 0

DLP 0 0

Ind. 2 2

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

10

2006 2010 GNP 4 3

DP 3 3

DLP 0 0

Ind. 0 0

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

2006 2010 GNP 5 3

DP 2 3

DLP 0 0

Ind. 0 0

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

2006 2010 GNP 4 3

DP 2 3

DLP 0 0

Ind. 1 0

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

11

2006 2010 GNP 7 5

DP 1 2

DLP 0 0

Ind. 0 0

Vacant 0 0

Total 8 7

2006 2010 GNP 5 4

DP 2 2

DLP 0 0

Ind. 0 0

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

2006 2010 GNP 5 3

DP 1 1

DLP 0 0

Ind. 1 2

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

12

2006 2010 GNP 5 4

DP 1 2

DLP 0 0

Ind. 1 0

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

2006 2010 GNP 4 4

DP 1 1

DLP 0 0

Ind. 2 1

Vacant 0 0

Total 7 6

2006 2010 GNP 117 90

DP 29 36

DLP 0 0

Ind. 22 20

Vacant 0 0

Total 168 146

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Gangwon province county chiefs and mayors

GNP DP Ind.

County chiefs (for gun = county) and mayors (for si= cities) in Gangwon province

2006 2010 -si Chae Yong Saeng (GNP) Chae Yong Saeng (GNP) Gangneung-si Choi Myeong Hee (GNP) Choi Myeong Hee (GNP) Donghae-si Kim Hak Gi (GNP) Kim Hak Gi (GNP) -si Kim Dae Soo (GNP) Kim Dae Soo (Ind.) -si Park Jong Gi (GNP) Kim Yeon Sik (GNP) Chuncheon-si Lee Gwang Jun (GNP) Lee Gwang Jun (GNP) Wonju-si Kim Gi Yeol (GNP) Won Chang Mook (DP) Goseong-gun Hwang Jong Guk (Ind.) Hwang Jong Guk (Ind.) Yangyang-gun Lee Jin Ho (GNP) Lee Jin Ho (GNP) Inje-gun Park Sam Rae (GNP) Lee Ki Soon (Ind.) Pyeongchang-gun Kwon Hyeok Seung (GNP) Lee Seok Rae (DP) Jeongseon-gun Yoo Chang Sik (GNP) Choi Seung Jun (DP) Yanggu-gun Jeon Chang Beom (GNP) Jeon Chang Beom (GNP) Hongcheon-gun Noh Seung Cheol (GNP) Heo Pil Hong (Ind.) Hoengseong-gun Han Gyu Ho (GNP) Ko Seok Yong (DP) Yeongwol-gun Park Seon Gyu (GNP) Park Seon Gyu (GNP) Hwacheon-gun Jeong Gab Cheol (GNP) Jeong Gab Cheol (GNP) Cheorwon-gun Jeong Ho Jo (GNP) Jeong Ho Jo (GNP)

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5. Curriculum Vitae of key persons in Gangwon-Do

Lee Kwangjae (DP) – Elected Governor of Gangwon Province

1965 – born in Pyeongchang, Gangwon 1993 – head of board of Research Center for Local Self-government Management 1995 – head of Cho Soon Seoul mayor’s candidate’s office 2001 – graduated for law major 2003 – head of project board of President Roh’s candidate office 2004 –member of the 17th Korea National Assembly 2004- Vice representative of the board of the Uri Party 2008 – member of the 18th Korea National Assembly 2005-2006 – chair of Gangwon-do Committee of the Uri Party 2007 – chair of Gangwon-do Committee of the Democratic Party

Hwang Jongkook (Ind.) – Elected County Chief of Goseong-gun

Born in 1937

Graduated Dongkwang Middle School 1993 – the 1st chairman of the Local Council of Goseong-gun 1998 – the 30th County Chief of Goseong-gun 2008 – the 33rd County Chief of Goseong-gun

Jeon Changbeom (GNP) – Elected County Chief of Yanggu-gun

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Born in 1953

B.A. of Law from Korea National Open University 2003 – head of the Department of the Self-governing administration of Gangwon-do 2005 – Vice County Chief of Yanggu-gun 2006 – County Chief of Yanggu-gun

Lee Kisoon (Ind.) – Elected County Chief of Inje-gun

1953 – born in Inje, Gangwon

Graduated Inje High School 2006-2008 – the 7th chairman of the 1st-term Local Council of Gangwon-do

Jeong Hojo (GNP) – Elected County Chief of Cheolwon-gun

Born in 1947 Graduated Sin Cheolwon High School Researcher of Kyemyeong Marketing Research Center Chairman of the Committee of Crime Prevention of the Local Prosecution Service 2006 – County Chief of Cheolwon-gun

HERAUSGEBER: CHRISTIAN J. HEGEMER, LEITER IBZ AUTOR: DR. BERNHARD SELIGER WITH RHEE JONG-HAN LAZARETTSTR. 33 – 80636 MÜNCHEN – TEL.: +49 (0)89 1258-0 – FAX.:+49 (0)89 1258-359 E-MAIL: [email protected] – HOMEPAGE: WWW.HSS.DE ERSTELLT AM: JUNE 3, 2010

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