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Kommunalwahlen in Südkorea

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Kommunalwahlen in Südkorea RICHT South Korea Comeback of the Democratic Party – Defeat for Grand National Party Executive Summary In the local elections on June 2, 2010, the opposition Democratic Party scored a victory POLITISCHER SONDERBE POLITISCHER unexpected in this size, and the ruling Grand National Party suffered a defeat seen widely influenced as well by an unpopular flagship regional policy focusing on the restoration of four rivers as well as discontent with the tensions on the Korean peninsula. The Democratic Party, which was in most areas in a coalition with other successor parties of the former center-left government of late presidents Kim Dae-Jung and Roh Moo-Hyun, won 7 out of 16 races for governors of provinces and mayors of major cities, compared to 3 in the election 2006. The Grand National Party is halved to six from 12, the smaller right-wing Liberty Forward Party of the GNP renegade Lee Hoi-Chang won the mayor in Daejeon and 2 are independent, but closer to the opposition. However, the two core mayoral races in Seoul and Gyeonggi-Do were won by the GNP candidates, though in Seoul in a tight race. Gangwon-Do, the partner province of Hanns- Seidel-Foundation as well as Upper Franconia, a former stronghold of the GNP, now is governed by the Democratic Party. Another surprise is the election victory of an independent candidate close to late president Roh Moo-Hyun over the former Minister of Public Administration and Security of the Lee administration, Lee Dalgon, in another former stronghold of GNP, South Gyeongsan Province. Zusammenfassung Die Originaldaten finden sich so nur im Koreanischen,(Korean National Election Commission, www.nec.go.kr ), eine englische Fassung der Webseite zur Wahl findet sich auf: http://www.nec.go.kr/engvote/news/news.jsp Die Graphiken wurden von Rhee Jong-Han nach Originaldaten der Koreanischen Wahlkommission erstellt. Bei den Kommunalwahlen am 2. Juni 2010 konnte die oppositionelle Demokratische Partei (DP) einen in dieser Höhe unerwarteten Sieg einfahren, während die regierende Grand National Party eine Niederlage erlitt, die nach Ansicht vieler Beobachter sowohl an einer unpopulären Regionalpolitik beruht, die eine Restaurierung von vier der wichtigsten Flüsse Koreas zum Ziel hat, als auch an den erhöhten Spannungen auf der koreanischen Halbinsel. Die DP, die in den meisten Regionen ein Wahlbündnis mit kleineren Nachfolgeparteien aus der früheren Mitte-Links- Bewegung der verstorbenen Präsidenten Kim Dae-Jung und Roh Moo-Hyun eingegangen war, konnte 7 der 16 Rennen für Posten als Provinzgouverenur oder Bürgermeister der großen Städte für sich entscheiden, gegenüber 3 im Jahr 2006. Die GNP wurde von 12 auf 6 halbiert, die kleinere Liberty Forward Partei des GNP-Rebellen Lee Hoi-Chang kam auf einen Sitz in Daejeon und zwei siegreiche Kandidaten waren unabhängig, allerdings eher der Opposition nahestehend. Die beiden wichtigsten Rennen jedoch, um den Bürgermeisterposten von Seoul und die Gouverneursposten von Gyeonggi-Do wurden von der GNP für sich entschieden, wenn auch im 1 Fall von Seoul nur knapp. Die Gangwon-Provinz, Partnerprovinz der Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung sowie des Regierungsbezirks Oberfranken, eine frühere Hochburg der GNP, ist nun von einem DP- Gouverneur regiert. Eine andere Überraschung war der Wahlsieg eines unabhängigen Kandidaten, der dem früheren Präsidenten Roh Moo-Hyun sehr nahestand, gegen den früheren Innenminister der Lee Myung-Bak Regierung, Lee Dalgon, in einer anderen früheren Hochburg der GNP, der Süd-Gyeongsan-Provinz. 1. Overview In the last local elections in 2006, GNP had won in 12 places (mayor and governor level) out of 16 places. DP only won in 3 places, and there was only one independent elected for the governor of Jeju. (the count for DP included the Uri Party, which is now DP after the consolidation.) On the other hand, in the current elections in 2010, GNP won only in 6 places, which are half of what it had won in 2006. In addition, DP won in 7 places which is one place more than GNP. There are two governors who are elected as independent candidates in Gyeongnam province and Jeju Island. Also, LFP won place for the mayor of Daejeon. DP gained four places from GNP (Incheon, Gangwon province, Chungbuk province, and Chungnam province). LFP won a place for the mayor of Daejeon. Below the table for the result of elections in 2006/2010 provided. Local Election in 2006 Local Election in 2010 Seoul Oh Sehoon (GNP) Seoul Oh Sehoon (GNP) Incheon Ahn Sangsu (GNP) Incheon Song Yeonggil (DP) Daejeon Park Sunghyo (GNP) Daejeon Yeom Hongchul (LFP) Daegu Kim Beomil (GNP) Daegu Kim Beomil (GNP) Ulsan Park Mengwoo (GNP) Ulsan Park Mengwoo (GNP) Busan Heo Namsik (GNP) Busan Heo Namsik (GNP) Kwangju Park Gwangtae (DP) Kwangju Kang Woontae (DP) Kyonggi Prov. Kim Moonsu (GNP) Kyonggi Prov. Kim Moonsu (GNP) Gangwon Prov. Kim Jinseon (GNP) Gangwon Prov. Lee Kwangjae (DP) Chungbuk Prov. Jeong Wootaek (GNP) Chungbuk Prov. Lee Sijong (DP) Chungnam Prov. Lee Wanku (GNP) Chungnam Prov. Ahn Heuijung (DP) Jeonbuk Prov. Kim Wanjoo (DP) Jeonbuk Prov. Kim Wanjoo (DP) Jeonnam Prov. Park Joonyeong (DP) Jeonnam Prov. Park Joonyeong (DP) Gyeongbuk Prov. Kim Kwanyong (GNP) Gyeongbuk Kim Kwanyong (GNP) Prov. Gyeongnam Kim Taeho (GNP) Gyeongnam Kim Dookwan (Ind.) Prov. Prov. Jeju Kim Taehwan (Ind.) Jeju Woo Keunmin (Ind.) 2 For the election in Seoul, Oh Sehoon (GNP) got re-elected for his second term of the mayor, but the competition with Han Myeongsook (DP) was very intense, where Oh had 47.4% of the votes, and Han had 46.8%. For the election in Incheon, Ahn Sangsoo (GNP) could not be re- elected; Song Yeonggil (DP) won in the election with 52.7% of the votes.For the election in Kyonggi Province, Kim Moonsu (GNP) got re-elected for his second term of the governor with 52.2% of the votes while Yoo Simin (DP) had 47.8%. Candidate Lee Dalgon (GNP) did not win in the Gyeongnam Province. Independent candidate, Kim Dookwan, won for the governor of Gyeongnam Province with 53.5% of the votes while Lee had 46.5%. 2. Analysis of the vote To put the election results in perspective, a number of considerations are important: The five most important are discussed here, though, being a regional and local election, this cannot really include all factors often prevailing on the local and regional level. First, the results of the preceding election: It can hardly be called a yardstick, since it was taken when unpopularity of then-president Roh Moo-Hyun was highest. The landslide victory in 2006 now led to the relatively strong downfall of the GNP. However, given that GNP is prevailing in the two most populous regions, Seoul and Gyeonggi-Do, the current situation seems more to be a return to normalcy, with roughly both major parties in a draw, though a normalcy hurting the government and strengthening the opposition. In this sense it is a balancing vote, but it is not really a verdict on Lee Myung-Bak’s government or agenda. This is also clear from the result in Daejeon, where the Liberty Forward Party won, an opposition party to Lee Myung-Bak, but on the right wing, not on the left wing. Second, the balancing effect. It is typical for Korea, but also for other countries to hand out warnings to the government (for a number of reasons, see below) in a mid-term election. This is the more true since Korea has all the regional and local elections on the same day. Indeed, the political landscape is now more balanced, but again, it was not a landslide opposition victory as the 2006 election had been. Generally, it can be said that national policy reasons played an important role for the voter mobilization, in the case of GNP voters mainly in form of concerns on the economy, in the case of DP voters mainly related to “getting even with the 2MB government” (the unpopular government of Lee Myung-Bak), in particular in the wake of the first anniversary of the suicide of late president Roh Moo-Hyun. Third, domestic policy reasons. The regional policy agenda in Korea always has particular importance due to regional imbalances between the capital region (Seoul, Gyeonggi province, and Incheon) and the poorer other regions as well as the regional adversity of Southeastern (Yeongnam) and Southwestern (Honam) regions. In Korea, regional policy mainly means policy of the center vis-à-vis the regions, since material autonomy of provinces and local authorities is rather small, most of the money spent on regional development comes from central government coffers. The flagship regional development project of the Lee Myung-Bak government is the four rivers restoration programme, a programme to restore and improve the environment, the economic use and the living condition along four major rivers in the country. Many see this project as a rather unsuccessful successor to the original plan of President Lee to build a grand canal through the country. Environmentalists fear that the project is mainly aiming at helping local and national construction companies, at the expense of the environment the project claims to improve. Another major domestic policy issue working in favour of the opposition is the decision of the Lee administration to end the plans to build a new capital (or, in a later phase, a new administrative city) in South Chungcheon province. The project was a project started by his predecessor, Roh Moo-Hyun, who hoped to bind voters in the region, which had traditionally voted for the now long-defunct United Liberal Democrats. Lee Myung-Bak originally promised to honour the decision to build the new capital, but in the wake of rising costs and political opposition changed this plan, to the immense anger of voters there and against opposition in his own party, most prominently from former GNP chairwoman Park Geun-Hye.
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