BENDING THE CURVE

executive summary

Ten scalable solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability “We must combine rigor and imagination “We are the University of to confront : the rigor California, and there is no of scientific facts with the imagination reason that UC can’t lead to perceive what is now unseen – the the world in this quest, as dangers that lie ahead if we do not act.” it has in so many others.”

Honorable Edmund G. Brown, Jr. Speech given at the UN Foundation President Janet Napolitano Statement issued during the Governor of California dinner in New York City in honor University of California announcement of the Carbon September 25, 2015 of the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy 2013 Neutrality Initiative of the of Sciences for its role in shaping University of California the Vatican’s position on climate change as espoused in ’ encyclical, Laudato Si’ UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Bending the Curve: Executive Summary

TABLE OF CONTENTS

part one foreword 2 I. Seizing the Moment 3 II. We Are at a Crossroads 4 III. Bending the Curve 5 IV. The California Experience: 1960 to 2015 6 V. The UC Carbon Neutrality Initiative 7

part two the solutions 8 I. 10 Scalable Solutions 10 II. Unique Aspects of the 10 Solutions 13 III. Pathways for Implementing the 10 Solutions 14

This Executive Summary should be cited part three the urgency, the human dimensions, 23 as follows: and the need for scalable solutions I. How Did We Get Here? 24 Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Juliann E. Allison, II. Is Not the Only Problem 25 Maximilian Auffhammer, David Auston, III. Planetary-Scale Warming: How Large and How Soon? 26 Anthony D. Barnosky, Lifang Chiang, William D. Collins, Steven J. Davis, Fonna IV. Facing the Worst Scenario: the Fat Tail 27 Forman, Susanna B. Hecht, Daniel Kammen, V. From Climate Change to Climate Disruption: 28 C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, Teenie Matlock, Amplifying Feedbacks Daniel Press, Douglas Rotman, Scott VI. The Human Dimension: Public Health and Food 31 Samuelsen, Gina Solomon, David G. Victor, and Water Security Byron Washom, 2015: Executive Summary VII. Environmental Equity, Ethics and Justice: What Is 33 of the Report, Bending the Curve: 10 scalable Our Responsibility? solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability. Published by the University of California, October 27, 2015. Citations 34 Authors 37 The authors acknowledge senior editor Research Foci 38 Jon Christensen of UCLA, for help with editing and for improving the readability of this executive summary. FOREWORD I. Seizing the Moment PART ONE FOREWORD Climate change is scientifically incontrovertible. What the world urgently needs now are scalable solutions for bending the curve — flattening the upward trajectory of human-caused emissions and consequent global climate change. This executive summary of the full report, Bending the Curve: 10 scalable solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability, presents pragmatic paths for achieving carbon neutrality and climate stability in California, the United States and the world. More than 50 researchers and scholars — from a wide range of disciplines across the University of California system — formed a climate solutions group and came together in recent months to identify these solutions, many of which emerge from UC research as well as the research of colleagues around the world. Taken together, these solutions can bend the curve of climate change. The full report will be published in spring 2016 after peer review. This report is inspired by California’s recent pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, and by the University of California’s pledge to become carbon neutral by 2025. What is taking place in California today is exactly the sort of large-scale demonstration project the planet needs. And this statewide demonstration project is composed of many of the kinds of solutions that can be scaled up around the world. Over the past half century, California has provided a remarkable example for the world by achieving dramatic reductions in air pollution, while continuing to grow economically. In this report, we propose a set of strategies for combating climate change and growing the economy in California, the nation and the world, while building present-day and intergenerational wealth, and improving the well-being of people and the planet. The University of California has played a key role in California’s pioneering leadership in energy and environmental policy through research, teaching and public service, and currently is partnering with local, state, federal and international leaders in the public, private and philanthropic sectors to address our pressing climate change challenges. We still have much more to do here in California. We are eager to share these lessons with the world at the upcoming global climate summit in Paris, and together build a better, safer, healthier and more equitable world, while bending the curve of climate change. As we make the changes necessary to achieve carbon neutrality at the University of California, employing solutions that can be scaled up to developing energy and climate solutions for the world, hundreds of thousands of faculty, students and staff across our 10 campuses and three affiliated national laboratories will be learning and sharing with the world how we can bend the curve of greenhouse gas emissions and stop global warming through taking bold yet pragmatic steps and lowering the barriers so others can follow.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 3 II. We Are at a Crossroads and We Must Make a Choice III. Bending the Curve

SLCP CLIMATE BENEFITS Avoided Global Warming by 2050 BAU reference Climate change (Business As Usual)

CO2 only BC + CH 4 0.5°C BC+CH4 only is real and it is HFCs 0.1°C SLCPs 0.6°C Full Mitigation

CO2+SLCPs (BC+CH +HFCs) happening now. 4

This is evident in the increased 2011 was around 50 billion tons and frequency and intensity of storms, is growing at a rate of 2.2 percent Simulated temperature change under various hurricanes, floods, heat waves, per year. If this rate of increase mitigation scenarios droughts and forest fires. These continues unabated, the world is on extreme events, as well as the target to warm by about 2 degrees spread of certain infectious diseases, Celsius in less than 40 years. By the worsened air pollution, drinking end of the century, warming could “Bending the curve” refers to methane (CH4), , 2100, which would avert most water contamination and food range from 2.5 degrees Celsius to flattening the upward trajectory hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs, which are disastrous climate disruptions. This is shortages, are creating the beginning a catastrophic 7.8 degrees Celsius. of human-caused warming trends. used in refrigerants) and tropospheric our goal in this report. of what soon will be a global public We are transitioning from climate Reducing CO emissions by 80 ozone. If currently available 2 In this executive summary of the health crisis. A whole new navigable change to climate disruption. percent by 2050 and moving to technologies for reducing SLCPs full Bending the Curve report, we ocean is opening in the Arctic. With such alarming possibilities carbon neutrality post-2050 would were fully implemented by 2030, describe 10 practical solutions to Sea levels are rising, causing major the planet is highly likely to cross begin to bend the temperature projected warming could be reduced mitigate climate change that are damage in the world’s most populous several tipping points within curve downward and reduce by as much as 0.6 degrees Celsius scalable to the state, the nation cities. All this has resulted from decades, triggering changes that overall warming by as much as 1.5 within two to four decades, keeping and the world. There are many such warming the planet by only about could last thousands of years. All of degrees Celsius by 2100.1 More the mid-century warming well below reports offering recommendations 0.9 degrees Celsius, primarily from this is occurring against a backdrop rapid reductions can be achieved 2 degrees Celsius relative to the and solutions to keep climate change human activities. Since 1750, we of growing needs and pressures by by reducing four short-lived climate pre-industrial average. This could give under manageable levels. We take have emitted 2 trillion metric tons humans, as our population is set to pollutants. These short-lived climate the world additional time to achieve full account of such action-oriented of carbon dioxide (CO ) and other increase by at least 2 billion people pollutants, known as SLCPs, are net-zero emissions or even negative 2 reports and offer some unique greenhouse gases. The emission in by 2050. carbon emissions through scaling solutions to complement them. Many up existing and emerging carbon- 1 Temperature estimates for future warming of the solutions proposed here are neutral and carbon sequestration trends as well as for the mitigated warming being field tested on University of given throughout this report have a 95 technologies and methods. Achieving California campuses and elsewhere percent probability range of ±50 percent. both maximum possible mitigation of For example, a value of 2 degrees Celsius in California. The background, the SLCPs and carbon neutrality beyond in the report is the central value with a 95 criteria, the quantitative narrative percent range of 1 to 4 degrees Celsius. 2050 could hold global warming to and justification for these solutions That is, there is a 95 percent probability the about 2 degrees Celsius through true value will be within that range. can be found in the full report.

4 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 5 IV. The California Experience: 1960 to 2015 V. The Carbon Neutrality Initiative of the University Of California

In the economic boom following generated from renewables (not Gov. Brown issued an executive California cannot address climate This report is an outgrowth of the Examples of current projects related

World War II — fueled by large including hydropower), second order setting a goal of reducing CO2 change on its own, but the state University of California President’s to the Carbon Neutrality Initiative increases in population, vehicles, only to Germany (which generates emissions to 40 percent below 1990 can serve as a living laboratory for Carbon Neutrality Initiative. The are described in the full report. These diesel trucks and coal-burning 27 percent of its electricity from levels by 2030, which is the pathway “the art of the possible,” sharing its authors of this report and our include an 80 megawatt solar array industries — California recorded renewables). These impressive required for stabilizing climate below good practices and cooperating colleagues at the University of in the Central Valley (the largest at some of the highest air pollution environmental gains did not hurt 2 degrees Celsius relative to the with other states and nations to California’s 10 campuses and three any U.S. university), an experimental levels, competing with the city of California’s economy, which grew at pre-industrial average. The legacy mitigate their emissions. To achieve affiliated national laboratories are anaerobic digester that is using food London for the dubious title of the an impressive pace with the highest of California’s air quality and energy this goal, California has created strongly motivated by the special waste to produce bio-methane, a worst polluted region in the world. gross domestic product of all states efficiency programs since the 1960s an “Under 2 MOU,” an agreement demands of this ambitious goal, large fuel cell that generates 2.8 Since then, California has made in the nation, constituting the world’s and the depth of expertise at CARB Gov. Brown co-founded with the and we are also motivated by megawatts of electricity from a a remarkable turnaround. From eighth largest economy. California on the multi-dimensional aspects state of Baden-Württemberg in corresponding goals for the state municipal waste water treatment 1960 to the present, California has has shown how to reduce fossil fuel of climate change mitigation have Germany. The “Under 2 MOU” is of California, the nation and the facility, smart lighting and smart reduced levels of particles and gases related pollution emissions while placed California in a unique position an agreement among subnational world. The UC Carbon Neutrality building systems that dramatically related to air pollution by as much sustaining strong economic growth. to embark on such ambitious low jurisdictions around the world to Initiative is dedicated to achieving reduce energy consumption and a as 90 percent. carbon pathways. limit the increase in global average net-zero greenhouse gas emissions solar greenhouse that selectively Emboldened by this favorable temperature to below 2 degrees by 2025 across all 10 UC campuses. harvests light for solar electricity. The concentration of black carbon experience in regulating air pollution, While its geography, equable Celsius. Since the global agreement It should be emphasized that a net- These and other works at the was reduced by 90 percent across California in 2002 passed the first climate and commerce have favored was first signed in May 2015, a total zero emission target is enormously University of California illustrate the California. In the meantime, fuel law in the country that targeted green growth, this progress came of 45 jurisdictions in 20 countries demanding and requires careful commitment that we have made to consumption for the transportation greenhouse gas emissions from as a result of five decades of and five continents, with a total strategic planning to arrive at a mitigate climate change. sector increased by a factor of five vehicles. In 2006, it enacted the consistent and innovative policies GDP of US $14 trillion, have signed mix of technologies, behavioral and population grew from 15.5 precedent-setting Global Warming that relied on sound research, or endorsed the agreement. measures and policies, as well as million (1959) to 39 million (2014). Solutions act and gave authority innovative development and highly effective communication — California also has made impressive to California’s air pollution agency, aggressive implementation of all of which, taken together, are gains in energy efficiency and in the California Air Resources Board policies. While California relied only far more challenging than simply lowering its carbon footprint. Its (CARB), to enact policies to reduce on command and control regulation reducing emissions by some per capita energy consumption is its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 until the 1990s, the state began 40 percent or even 80 percent. among the lowest in the United levels by 2020. The state responded rolling out market incentives for Each campus has a unique set of States (48th) and its per capita with a suite of measures that include controlling nitrous oxide emissions requirements based on its current electricity consumption is the a cap and trade program, a low and demonstrated the efficacy of energy consumption and emissions. lowest — roughly half of the U.S. carbon fuel standard for vehicles, market instruments to mitigate Factors such as a local climate, per capita consumption. automobile emission standards certain types of emissions. Relying reliance on cogeneration facilities, expected to reduce emissions by 30 on this experience, CARB launched California is one of the most energy- access to wholesale electricity percent by 2016, renewable portfolio a cap and trade system in 2013 efficient and greenest economies in markets and whether the campus standards for utilities, energy to reduce carbon emissions from the world. It is the second-to-least has a hospital and medical school, efficiency programs for buildings and utilities, industrial facilities and fuel carbon-intense economy in the world shape the specific challenges of appliances, and transit and land use distributors, covering 85 percent of next to France, which relies heavily the campuses, each of which is a programs to reduce vehicle miles California’s emissions, making it the on nuclear power. It also is a leader “living laboratory” for learning and traveled. This has been followed by most comprehensive cap and trade in renewable power generation adapting. another milestone in 2015 when market in the world. with 23 percent of its electricity

6 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 7 PART TWO THE SOLUTIONS THE SOLUTIONS I. 10 Scalable Solutions

These 10 pragmatic, scalable solutions — all of which can be implemented immediately and expanded rapidly — will clean Of the 10 solutions proposed here, seven our air and keep global warming under 2 degrees Celsius and, at the same time, provide breathing room for the world to 7 9 (solutions #1 and #4 through #9) have been fully transition to carbon neutrality in the coming decades. More detail on each solution can be found in Section III. or are currently being implemented in California (see “The California Experience: Promote immediate widespread Immediately make maximum use 1960 to 2015” in this executive summary). use of mature technologies such as of available technologies combined California’s experience provides valuable photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery with regulations to reduce methane lessons, and in some cases direct models, 1 3 5 and hydrogen fuel cell electric light- emissions by 50 percent and black for scaling these solutions to other states duty vehicles, and more efficient carbon emissions by 90 percent. and nations. Decades of research on Bend the warming curve immediately Deepen the global culture of climate Adopt market-based instruments end-use devices, especially in Phase out hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) University of California campuses and by reducing short-lived climate collaboration by designing venues to create efficient incentives for lighting, air conditioning, appliances by 2030 by amending the Montreal in national laboratories managed by the university contributed significantly to the pollutants (SLCPs) and sustainably where stakeholders, community and businesses and individuals to reduce and industrial processes. These Protocol. In addition to the climate development of these solutions. Several by replacing current fossil-fueled religious leaders converge around CO emissions. These can include 2 technologies will have even greater and health benefits described of the renewable energy technology energy systems with carbon neutral concrete problems with researchers cap and trade or carbon pricing impact if they are the target of under solution #1, this solution will solutions in solutions #6 and #7 have been technologies. Achieve the SLCP and scholars from all academic and should employ mechanisms to market-based or direct regulatory provide access to clean cooking for field tested on University of California reduction targets prescribed in solution disciplines, with the overall goal of contain costs. Adopt the high quality solutions such as those described in the poorest 3 billion people who campuses (see “The Carbon Neutrality Initiative of the University of California” #9 by 2030 to cut projected warming initiating collaborative actions to emissions inventories, monitoring solutions #5 and #6, and have the spend hours each day collecting solid in this report). Scaling these solutions to by approximately 50 percent by 2050. mitigate climate disruption. and enforcement mechanisms potential to achieve 30 percent to biomass fuels and burning them other states and nations and eventually To limit long-term global warming to necessary to make these approaches 40 percent reduction in fossil fuel indoors for cooking. globally will require attitudinal and under 2 degrees Celsius, cumulative work. In settings where these behavioral changes covered in solutions CO2 emissions by 2030. emissions from now to 2050 must be 4 institutions do not credibly exist, #2 and #3. less than 1 trillion tons and approach alternative approaches such as 10 UC researchers currently are working zero emissions post-2050. Solutions Scale up subnational models direct regulation may be the better 8 on many of these solutions, along with #7 to #9 cover technological solutions of governance and collaboration approach — although often at higher Regenerate damaged natural colleagues around the world. UC faculty also are involved in research on solution to accomplish these targets. around the world to embolden and cost than market-based systems. Aggressively support and promote ecosystems and restore soil organic energize national and international #10 to identify and improve carbon sinks innovations to accelerate the carbon to improve natural sinks in natural and managed ecosystems by action. Use the California complete electrification of energy for carbon (through afforestation, expanding existing, proven practices 2 examples to help other state- and 6 and transportation systems reducing deforestation and worldwide. The cost of fully implementing city-level jurisdictions become and improve building efficiency. restoration of soil organic carbon). these solutions will be significant, but Foster a global culture of climate living laboratories for renewable Narrowly target direct regulatory Support development of lower-cost Implement food waste reduction California shows that it can be done while maintaining a thriving economy. And the action through coordinated public technologies and for regulatory as measures — such as rebates and energy storage for applications programs and energy recovery cost is well justified in light of the social communication and education at local well as market-based solutions, and efficiency and renewable energy in transportation, resilient large- systems to maximize utilization costs of carbon emissions, including to global scales. Combine technology build cross-sector collaborations portfolio standards — at high scale and distributed micro-scale of food produced and recover 7 million deaths every year due to air and policy solutions with innovative among urban stakeholders because emissions sectors not covered grids, and residential uses. Support energy from food that is not pollution linked to fossil fuel and biomass approaches to changing social creating sustainable cities is a key by market-based policies. Create development of new energy storage consumed. Global deployment of burning which also releases climate warming pollutants to the atmosphere. attitudes and behavior. to global change. powerful incentives that continually technologies, including batteries, these measures has the potential reward improvements to bring super-capacitors, compressed air, to reduce 20 percent of the current If we can scale these 10 solutions beginning now, we can dramatically bend down emissions while building hydrogen and thermal storage, as well 50 billion tons of emissions of CO 2 the curve of deadly air pollution and political coalitions in favor of as advances in heat pumps, efficient and other greenhouse gases global warming worldwide. California climate policy. Terminate subsidies lighting, fuel cells, smart buildings and and, in addition, meet the recently can’t bend the curve on its own. Neither that encourage emission-intensive systems integration. These innovative approved sustainable development can the University of California. But we activities. Expand subsidies that technologies are essential for meeting goals by creating wealth for the can be part of powerful networks and collaborations to scale these solutions. encourage innovation in low the target of 80 percent reduction in poorest 3 billion. emission technologies. CO2 emissions by 2050.

10 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 11 II. Unique Aspects of the 10 Solutions

• This report is one of the first • This report recognizes that intra- of a culture of climate action documents that treats mitigation regional, intra-generational through localized interventions of air pollution and climate and inter-generational that lower barriers for citizens disruption under one framework. equity and ethical issues are to take concrete steps to The solutions proposed here inherent in climate change participate in solving our recognize the fact that fossil and any solutions to climate climate crisis. fuel combustion — which change. These issues arise in • These solutions recognize produces greenhouse gases part because consumption by the fact that fundamental — also produces particles and about 15 percent of the world’s changes in human attitudes gases such as ozone and black population contributes about and behaviors toward nature carbon, which also contribute 60 percent of climate pollution; and each other are critical to global warming. Others, such while 40 percent of the for bending the curve of air as sulfates, cause sunlight to population, who contribute very pollution and global warming. dim and dry the planet. We can little to this pollution, as well as As a result, two of the solutions accelerate solutions and gain generations unborn, are likely to deal with bringing researchers some time for long-term change suffer the worst consequences and scholars together with to a carbon-neutral world by of climate disruption. community and religious bending the curve of all of these • These solutions represent leaders and stakeholders to pollutants immediately and an integrated approach that lower barriers to addressing simultaneously as part of one includes familiar goals for climate change from the local unified strategy. achieving carbon neutrality level on up. • These 10 solutions leverage the through renewable energy, • This report recognizes the power of concern for human with new goals for reducing fundamental importance of health worldwide. People care SLCPs immediately; building effective communication to about human health. Burning on California’s success to reach and engage diverse fossil fuels causes both air encourage sub-national constituencies throughout pollution and climate changes governance, regulations and the world to bend the curve that result in human illnesses market-based instruments; of emissions and warming, and death. As the Lancet and innovative approaches achieve carbon neutrality and Commission concluded in June in education, communication stabilize Earth’s climate. 2015: “The effects of climate and incentives to encourage change are being felt today and attitudinal and behavioral future projections represent changes. To be effective, this an unacceptably high and integrated strategy requires potentially catastrophic risk engagement by diverse to human health.” stakeholders and the creation

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 13 III. Pathways for Implementing the 10 Solutions

Our 10 scalable solutions Science Solutions Cluster • Phase out the current fossil- report, even above regulatory and technological solutions. harmed by climate change, and that energy access fueled energy system and Top-down action will be difficult to implement without choices based on more sustainable, low-carbon are grouped in six clusters 1. Bend the warming curve replace it with a diverse mix substantial support from the general public, which can be sources for these populations will result in prevention listed below. immediately by reducing short- of carbon-neutral and carbon accelerated by societal transformations from the bottom up. of climate disruption and collective harm to the lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and • Science Solutions Cluster sequestration technologies. planet and biodiversity. sustainably by replacing current 2. Foster a global culture of climate action through California’s targets of 50 percent • Societal Transformation fossil-fueled energy systems coordinated public communication and education at • Create and integrate curricula at all levels of Solutions Cluster renewables in power generation, with carbon neutral technologies. local to global scales. Combine technology and policy education, from kindergarten through college, to a 50 percent increase in energy Achieve the SLCP reduction targets solutions with innovative approaches to changing social educate a new generation about climate change • Governance Solutions Cluster efficiency, and a 40 percent prescribed in solution #9 by 2030 attitudes and behavior. impacts and solutions. • Market- and Regulations-Based reduction in greenhouse gas to cut projected warming by Solutions Cluster emissions by 2030 provide an • Promote coordinated information campaigns to 3. Deepen the global culture of climate collaboration. approximately 50 percent by 2050. excellent medium-term roadmap inform choices available to strategic constituents: Design venues where stakeholders, community and • Technology-Based Solutions To limit long-term global warming to for the nation and the world. If religious leaders converge around concrete problems with Cluster under 2 degrees Celsius, cumulative o The world’s top carbon emitters, numbering carbon emissions are reduced by researchers and scholars from all academic disciplines, emissions from now to 2050 must be 1 billion people, both individuals and institutions, • Natural and Managed 80 percent by 2050, transitioning with the overall goal of initiating collaborative actions to less than 1 trillion tons and approach who contribute about 60 percent of the world’s Ecosystem Solutions Cluster to zero emissions soon after, mitigate climate disruption. zero emissions post-2050. Solutions greenhouse gas emissions. This targeted audience this action along with the SLCP #7 to #9 cover technological solutions is easy to reach as they have readily available • Climate solutions require integrated behavioral, mitigation action can keep global to accomplish these targets. access to information technologies. ethical, political, social, humanistic and scientific warming below 2 degrees Celsius o Investors in and supporters of sustainable knowledge. Public and private institutions at every • Maximize use of existing for the rest of the century. development throughout the world, by providing scale can create venues where decision makers, technologies to cut emissions • Set up calibrated monitoring information on best practices in clean energy business leaders, community and religious leaders, of methane and black carbon to quantify trends in emission access for the world’s poorest 3 billion citizens with and academics spanning the natural sciences, social immediately. Since both are air sources and verify and make very low carbon footprints. Among the energy poor sciences, humanities and arts converge around pollutants, air pollution control public the bending of ambient are forest managers who offset the consumption concrete problems, with the goal of creating agencies can require this now. concentration curves of all air and energy patterns of other consumers. dialogues, developing common understanding, and This also will reduce another fostering collaborative action to mitigate climate and climate pollutants. o The 3 billion low carbon emitters can serve as short-lived climate pollutant, disruption. Public universities must use their public partners in worldwide de-carbonization by actively ozone. Phase out HFCs missions and mobilize their knowledge and resources Societal Transformation committing themselves, their families and their immediately — replacement to partner with community-based agencies, local Solutions Cluster communities to learn about and to strategize for refrigerant compounds are school districts and industry partners to educate future access to carbon-neutral energy. available now. Mitigation of The intra-regional, intra-generational locally for climate action. SLCPs also has significant local and inter-generational equity issues • Make the distribution of accountability and • Initiate a culture of climate action by localizing benefits, saving 2.4 million lives of climate change raise major responsibility for sustainable energy consumption clear interventions. Research shows that behavioral change lost to outdoor pollution and questions of ethics and justice. These to all constituencies through accurate, transparent, and positive public opinion are more likely when the 3 million lives lost to indoor questions compel us to reflect deeply widely available energy calculators that reveal how impacts of climate are recognized at a local scale and pollution each year, and saving on our responsibility to each other, much energy different constituencies are consuming. as much as 140 million tons of when barriers are lowered for people to participate in to nature, and to future inhabitants • Provide evidence-based indicators of the cumulative maize, rice, soybean and wheat concrete actions to solve our climate crisis. of this planet — Homo sapiens and all impacts of climate injustices. Past studies have lost annually to air pollution. other living beings alike. It is for these demonstrated that the poorest 3 billion, whose • Religious leaders can integrate protection of the reasons that societal transformation emissions account for only 5 percent of total environment with their traditional efforts to protect merits such high ranking in this emissions, will nevertheless be disproportionately the poor and the weak. A model exhortation in this

14 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 15 vein is Pope Francis’ encyclical Laudato Si’, which • State-level climate policy should encourage Market- and Regulations-Based Solutions Cluster As a matter of policy design, we have chosen not to stated: “We are faced not with two separate crises, one innovation and commercialization of technologies come down in favor of either market based or regulatory 5. Adopt market-based instruments to create efficient environmental and the other social, but rather with one and solutions that can replace fossil fuels and approaches, but to include both. Specifically, we incentives for businesses and individuals to reduce CO complex crisis which is both social and environmental. concurrently enable the poorer nations of the world 2 recommend the following: emissions. These can include cap and trade or carbon Strategies for a solution demand an integrated to achieve economic growth with zero and low- pricing and should employ mechanisms to contain costs. • It is imperative to anticipate and design climate approach to combating poverty, restoring dignity to carbon technologies. Adopt the high quality emissions inventories, monitoring policies in a way that can contain compliance costs. the excluded, and at the same time protecting nature.” • Accelerate the impact of cities on climate mitigation and enforcement mechanisms necessary to make these Pure regulation leaves policies susceptible to large through: (1) municipal and regional Climate Action approaches work. In settings where these institutions do increases in compliance costs, particularly in the Governance Solutions Cluster Plans (CAPs); (2) green infrastructure projects, such not credibly exist, alternative approaches such as direct presence of capacity or production constraints that 4. Scale up subnational models of governance and as: (a) urban forestry to improve carbon sequestration regulation may be the better approach — although often are inherent in energy markets. and reduce the urban heat island effect; (b) locally collaboration around the world to embolden and energize at higher cost than market-based systems. • Another artificial market distortion that must be decentralized micro-grids using renewable energy national and international action. Use the California 6. Narrowly target direct regulatory measures — such as corrected is subsidization of fossil fuels worldwide, sources; (3) smart mobility planning and design for examples to help other state- and city-level jurisdictions rebates and efficiency and renewable energy portfolio which provides carbon-intensive fuels with an active living and healthy place-making (such as mixed- become living laboratories for renewable technologies and standards — at high emissions sectors not covered by advantage over low-carbon fuels. Where necessary, use in-fill and transit oriented development), which for regulatory as well as market-based solutions, and build market-based policies. Create powerful incentives that charge royalties for fossil fuels extracted on public reduces greenhouse gas emissions by making cities cross-sector collaborations among urban stakeholders continually reward improvements to bring down emissions lands and territorial waters. less auto-centric and more walkable and bikeable; because creating sustainable cities is a key to global change. while building political coalitions in favor of climate policy. (4) incentivizing photovoltaic retrofits and new • Regulation requires extremely sophisticated Terminate subsidies that encourage emission-intensive • State- and city-level jurisdictions can set the standards net-zero energy technology; and (5) corresponding institutions and enforcement (such as the California activities. Expand subsidies that encourage innovation in and the pace for national actions by serving as living civic engagement and public education strategies, Air Resources Board) to prevent leakage and to low-emission technologies. laboratories for renewable technologies, regulatory- accompanied by concrete local opportunities for look ahead and assess how regulatory decisions based (“command and control”) strategies and market- participatory climate action, to change attitudes and The problem of emissions won’t solve itself. Policy makers interact with business strategy and the evolution of based solutions. Such efforts also speed up translation behaviors. must send decisive signals to firms and individuals. So technology. of science to policy actions, especially if those who far, very few places in the world have adopted strong o The 25th session of the UN-Habitat’s Governing • Revenues from cap and trade or carbon taxes should have been marginalized in systems of governance are greenhouse gas mitigation policies. California is an Council (April 2015) approved new International be used to fund aggressive pursuit of innovative new included in authentic ways that advance justice and exception, but California is less than 1 percent of the global Guidelines on Urban and Territorial Planning technologies that can bend the curve and protect equity. Over the past several decades, California has problem. If we are to lead, we need to adopt policies that which highlight the vital role cities can play in disadvantaged communities and those adversely shown that subnational leadership in technological others can emulate; this is tricky because the best policies addressing climate change and other pressing affected by cap and trade or other regulatory development, regulatory action, market-based will vary with local circumstances. In general, there are two solutions and provision of equitable benefits has social and ecological problems of the 21st century. strategies (for example, through payments for flavors of emissions policies: direct regulation and market- environmental services to rural communities engaged demonstrated a viable path forward for other states o Cities cover less than 2 percent of Earth’s surface, based (cap and trade and carbon pricing) regulation. and nations. but they consume 78 percent of the world’s in low carbon development paths, such as forest energy and produce more than 60 percent of all Economic theory and empirical evidence tell us that dependent communities). • National and subnational leaders must promote carbon dioxide and significant amounts of other market approaches are more cost-effective. In a few cases international action and cooperation in order for greenhouse gas emissions (UN-Habitat 2015). where market based control systems have been used at unilateral climate policies — such as California’s scale — such as trading of lead pollution, trading of sulfur climate mitigation mandate AB 32 or the American dioxide pollution, and European and Californian carbon Clean Energy and Security Act — to succeed and to markets — that theory is borne out by evidence. Yet it is minimize potential detrimental effects, such as the already clear that market approaches are politically very risk of emissions leakages which arise when only one difficult to implement in part for the very reasons that jurisdiction (California, for example) imposes climate many analysts find them attractive: They make the real policy but other jurisdictions do not. costs of action highly transparent.

16 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 17 Technology-Based Solutions Cluster • Technologies exist today that can provide significant • Energy storage is a vital enabling technology that of next-generation intelligent and more efficient carbon reductions if used widely. Achieve a more holds the key to transitioning from fossil fuels for 200 lm/Watt LED lighting products. These will be The technological measures under solutions #7 and #8, if reliable and resilient electric grid with at least our vehicular needs and managing the intermittency optimized for color and brightness to improve work fully implemented by 2050, will reduce global warming by 90 percent of all new generation capacity by 2030 of renewables on the electric power grid. Over the and school productivity and building efficiency. as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, and combined from distributed and renewable technologies, such past five years, electric vehicles have been entering with measures to reduce SLCPs in solution #9 will keep • Residential natural gas consumption can be reduced as photovoltaics, wind turbines, fuel cells, biogas the market and storage technologies are being warming below 2 degrees Celsius during the 21st century by 50 percent or more with widespread deployment and geothermal. tested now on various grid applications, mainly and beyond. of heat pumps and systems coupled to solar thermal driven by innovations in lithium-ion batteries and • Expand electrification of highly-efficient end- and solar power generation. To accelerate this goal, Global emissions of CO and other greenhouse gases in hydrogen. While these innovations are promising, 2 use devices, especially lighting, electric vehicles, we recommend deployment of an incentive program 2010 totaled 49 gigatons of equivalent CO per year, with more research and development is needed to reduce 2 machinery and plug load appliances. of rebates comparable to those for energy efficiency 75 percent due to increases in CO and 25 percent from the cost and ensure widespread deployment of 2 appliances. We also recommend the elimination of other greenhouse gases. This estimate from the IPCC (2013) • Examples from UC campuses demonstrate that battery and hydrogen storage. To achieve carbon- disincentives such as outdated and inappropriate does not include two of the SLCPs, ozone and black carbon. deep energy efficiency investments are immediately free electrification, complementary energy storage regulations for ground source heat pump installations. About 32 gigatons per year are due to CO from fossil fuels amenable to widespread implementation. technologies over a variety of scales must be 2 Although more challenging, widespread deployment and industrial processes. The challenge for technology developed and deployed, requiring a new generation • Accelerate the transition from fossil to zero-carbon, of heat pumps in larger commercial buildings also is solutions is to bring down emissions of CO to less than of sophisticated dynamic system control methods. 2 locally sourced transportation fuels such as hydrogen possible, but will require further investments in applied 6 gigatons per year by 2050, and reduce the emissions of to power fuel-cell-powered electric vehicles, and low- • Smart grid and micro-grid technology make possible research and development to accomplish comparable methane and black carbon by 50 percent and 90 percent carbon grid electricity to power battery electric vehicles, the increasing penetration of intermittent solar reductions in natural gas consumption. A promising respectively by 2030. This in turn will reduce ozone levels by to meet the carbon reduction required from the light- and wind generation resources, the emergence approach that now is being tested is the capture at least 30 percent. In addition, HFCs must be phased out duty and goods movement transportation sectors. and integration of plug-in electric vehicles into the of waste heat (and water) from cooling towers and completely by 2030. To indicate the importance of these grid infrastructure, and a proactive response to recirculating it with heat pumps into the heating loop non-CO mitigation measures: HFCs are the fastest growing • Overall, these measures, if implemented with 2 the increasing demand for enhanced grid resiliency, of buildings. greenhouse gases; if emissions continue to grow at current market and regulatory measures, can mitigate about thereby meeting the challenging environmental rates, HFCs alone will warm the climate by 0.1 degrees 10 gigatons per year of CO2 emissions by 2030. • The development of zero-carbon fuels such as goals associated with climate change, air quality and Celsius by 2050 and 0.5–1.0 degrees Celsius by 2100. hydrogen and highly-efficient engines with zero 8. Aggressively support and promote innovations to water consumption. The evolution of this technology criteria pollutant emissions is required to substantially 7. Promote immediate widespread use of mature accelerate the complete electrification of energy and represents a paradigm shift. Our power grids will be reduce the carbon footprint from light-duty vehicles technologies such as photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery transportation systems and improve building efficiency. designed, configured and operated in the future across and goods movement (medium-duty and heavy-duty and hydrogen fuel cell electric light-duty vehicles and Support development of lower cost energy storage a range of scales, from smart home devices to central vehicles, locomotives and ships) and, at the same more efficient end-use devices, especially in lighting, air for applications in transportation, resilient large-scale plant power generation. Smart micro-grid systems time, achieve urban air quality goals. conditioning, appliances and industrial processes. These and distributed micro-scale grids, and residential uses. also enable the ability to go off the main grid, which is technologies will have even greater impact if they are the Support research and development of a portfolio of new especially important in regions that historically have • While full electrification is an achievable goal for light- target of market-based or direct regulatory solutions such energy storage technologies, including batteries, super- been deprived of energy access, such as developing duty and medium-duty transportation, some form as those described in solutions #5 and #6 and have the capacitors, compressed air, hydrogen and thermal storage, countries in Africa and Asia. of environmentally friendly renewable fuel solutions potential to achieve 30 percent to 40 percent reduction in as well as advances in heat pumps, efficient lighting, fuel will be needed for heavy-duty transport, such as • Advanced lighting based on efficient light-emitting fossil fuel CO emissions by 2030. cells, smart buildings and systems integration. These algal-based biofuels. Using algae, we can capture 2 diode (LED) technology is now commercially available innovative technologies are essential for meeting the and beneficially reuse carbon dioxide produced from • Use of renewables and other low carbon energy sources and has a pay-back time of only one to two years. target of 80 percent reduction in CO emissions by 2050. existing fossil energy sources such as natural gas are increasing rapidly. Catalyzed by falling prices, in 2 The replacement of all incandescent, metal halide electricity generation to produce diesel and jet fuels. 2014, renewables accounted for about 50 percent of all • This solution will require significant investments in and fluorescent lighting fixtures with LED lighting Using wastewater and saline waters for algae growth, new power generation in the world (primarily in China, both basic and applied research and development, can reduce energy consumption from lighting by 40 we will not place additional burdens on our limited Japan, Germany and the United States), representing an demonstration of prototypes, and commercial percent. Investments are needed to capture further fresh water resources, and can remediate pollutants investment of about $270 billion. deployment. efficiencies, which are possible with the development

18 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 19 such as nitrogen and phosphate Natural and Managed in sustaining forest ecosystems from wastewaters before they Ecosystem Solutions Cluster as an effective and rapid means TECHNOLOGICAL MEASURES FOR CURBING SLCP EMISSIONS reenter the environment to of sequestering carbon and Measure 1 Sector contaminate aquifers or oceans. 10. Regenerate damaged natural achieving carbon neutrality. This ecosystems and restore soil organic CH measures Because these currently are also will achieve co-benefits for 4 not scalable in an economically carbon to improve natural sinks biodiversity, hydrological cycles Extended pre-mine degasification and recovery and oxidation of CH4 from ventilation air coal mines competitive manner, further for carbon (through afforestation, and soil development. Extended recovery and utilization, rather than venting, of associated gas and improved control of Extraction and transport of research is needed in this area. reducing deforestation and restoration of soil organic carbon). • Support policies that reward unintended fugitive emissions from production of oil and natural gas fossil fuels 9. Immediately make maximum use Implement food waste reduction complex agro-ecological Reduced gas leakage from long-distance transmission pipelines of available technologies combined programs and energy recovery systems rather than simplified with regulations to reduce methane systems to maximize utilization of tree crop systems. Half the Separation and treatment of biodegradable municipal waste throught reycling, composting and anaerobic digestion as well as landfill gas collection with combustion/utilization emissions by 50 percent and black food produced and recover energy world is still rural, and rural Waste management carbon emissions by 90 percent. from food that is not consumed. communities need to be part Upgrading primary wastewater treatment to secondary/tertiary treatment with gas recovery and Phase out hydrofluorocarbons Global deployment of these of the solution. This can be overflow control (HFCs) by 2030 by amending the facilitated by reforming agrarian measures has the potential to reduce Control of CH emissions from livestock, mainly through farm-scale anaerobic digestion of manure Montreal Protocol. In addition to policy with a focus on managing 4 20 percent of the current 50 billion from cattle and pigs Agriculture the climate and health benefits tons of emissions of CO and other carbon, which in many areas 2 Intermittent aeration of continuously flooded rice paddies described under solution #1, this greenhouse gases and, in addition, will involve natural forest solution will provide access to clean meet the recently approved management or agroforestry. BC measures (affecting BC and other co-emitted compounds) cooking for the poorest 3 billion sustainable development goals by • Globally, one-third of food people who spend hours each day Diesel particle filters for road and off-road vehicles creating wealth for the poorest produced is not eaten; in the Transport collecting solid biomass fuels and 3 billion. United States 40 percent is Elimination of high-emitting vehicles in road and off-road transport burning them indoors for cooking. • The potential for carbon not eaten. The CO2 and other Replacing coal by coal briquettes in cooking and heating stoves • The specific technological mitigation from afforestation, greenhouse gases emitted Pellet stoves and boilers, using fuel made from recycled wood waste or sawdust, to replace current measures for reducing methane in producing this wasted reduced deforestation and wood-burning technologies in the residential sector in industrialized countries and black carbon are described restoration of soil organic carbon food contribute 3.3 gigatons Residential Introduction of clean-burning biomass stoves for cooking and heating in developing countries2,3 in the table on page 21. These is about 8 to 12 gigatons per year. annually to emissions. And measures were developed when food is thrown away, Substitution of clean-burning cookstoves using modern fuels for traditional biomass cookstoves in by an international panel • Integrate payment for methane — which is about 80 developing countries2,3 and reported in UNEP WMO environmental services into times more potent than CO as 2 Replacing traditional brick kilns with vertical shaft kilns and hoffman kilns Report, 2011. global, national and local a greenhouse gas — is released Industry economic systems to support in landfills. Replacing traditional coke ovens with modern recovery ovens, including the improvement of forest-dependent communities end-of-pipe abatement measures in developing countries

Ban on open field burning of agricultural waste2 Agriculture

1 There are measures other than those identified in the table that could be implemented. For example, electric cars would have a similar impact to diesel particulate filters but these have not yet been widely introduced; forest fire controls could also be important but are not included due to the difficulty in establishing the proportion of fires that are anthropogenic. 2 Motivated in part by its effect on health and regional climate, including areas of ice and snow. 3 For cookstoves, given their importance for BC emissions, two alternative measures are included.

20 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 21 PART THREE THE URGENCY, THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS, AND THE NEED FOR SCALABLE SOLUTIONS THE URGENCY I. How Did We Get Here? II. Carbon Dioxide Is Not the Only Problem

The invention of the steam engine and the subsequent The greenhouse gas CO contributes 2 Between CO and other manmade greenhouse gases, acquisition of breathtaking technological prowess ANTHROPOCENE: GROWTH IN HUMAN ACTIVITIES about 50 percent to the manmade 2 (1880s to 1990s) Crutzen (2002) culminating in the current information age two centuries heat added to the planet. The other we already have added enough heat to warm the later have led to enormous improvements in human well- Human activity Increase in size 50 percent is due to several other planet by 2.3 degrees Celsius. The planet has already being. But the impressive improvement has come at a greenhouse gases and particles in World population Increased six-fold warmed by 0.9 degrees Celsius. About 0.8 degrees huge cost to the natural environment. The combination of soot. Those greenhouse gases include air and water pollution, species extinction, deforestation Urban population Increased thirteen-fold nitrous oxide, methane, halocarbons Celsius of this warming has been masked by air and climate change has become an existential threat to World economy Increased fourteen-fold (CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs), and pollution particles that reflect sunlight and cool the life on this planet. The gargantuan transformation of the tropospheric ozone. The warming environment has stimulated ecologists and geologists to Industrial output Increased forty-fold particles in soot are black carbon atmosphere. This masking effect will go away when consider whether the Holocene epoch — the past 12,000 Energy use Increased sixteen-fold and brown carbon. The sources strict air pollution controls are adopted worldwide. years of relatively constant climate and environmental of these pollutants include fossil Another 0.6 degrees Celsius is stored in the oceans; conditions that stimulated the development of human Coal production Increased seven-fold fuels (ozone, methane, black carbon), civilization — has ended, and a new epoch, the Carbon dioxide emission Increased seventeen-fold agriculture (methane and nitrous this will be released in the coming decades. Anthropocene, has begun, an epoch that recognizes oxide), organic wastes (methane), that human exploitation of Earth has become akin to Sulfur dioxide emission Increased thirteen-fold biomass cooking and open burning a geologic force (see side table). Lead emission Increased eight-fold (black and brown carbon) and refrigeration (halocarbons). Among involves a complication due to air The particle cooling effect of 0.6 Most of the changes listed in this table, and many others, Water use Increased nine-fold these pollutants, the SLCPs (methane, pollution particles. In addition to degrees Celsius should not be have occurred in a span of time equivalent to a human Fish catch Increased thirty-five fold black carbon, tropospheric ozone black and brown particles (which thought of as offsetting greenhouse lifetime beginning in the 1950s, which is considered the and HFCs) have lifetimes of days warm the climate), fossil fuel gas warming. This is because the beginning of the so-called “great acceleration” of human Blue whale population 99 percent decrease (black carbon) to 15 years (HFCs), combustion emits sulfate and nitrate lifetimes of these particles last just impacts. This also is the period that has seen the steepest which are much shorter than the particles, which reflect sunlight like days, and when stricter air pollution increase in global mean temperatures, global pollution century or longer lifetimes of CO mirrors and cool the planet. The controls worldwide eliminate the and deforestation. Taken from Climate and Common Good, Statement: P. Dasgupta*, 2 V. Ramanathan*, P. Raven*, Mgr M. Sanchez Sorondo*, M. Archer, and nitrous oxide. mechanisms of warming and cooling emission of these particles, the are extremely complex. But when 0.6 degrees Celsius cooling effect P.J. Crutzen, P. Lena, Y.T. Lee, M.J. Molina, M. Rees, J. Sachs, When we add up the warming effects J. Schellnhuber. Published by Pontifical Academy of Sciences, we add up all of the effects, sulfate will disappear. This however does of CO with the other greenhouse The most imminent threat that April 2015. 2 and nitrate particles have a net not imply that we should keep on gases, the planet should have cooling effect of about 0.8 degrees polluting, since air pollution leads to can harm the entire planet and its warmed by about 2.3 degrees Celsius (0.3–1.2 degrees Celsius 7 million deaths worldwide each year, Celsius, instead of the 0.9 degrees inhabitants is climate change. range). Summing 0.9 degrees Celsius as well as reductions in precipitation Celsius observed warming. About of observed warming, 0.6 degrees and decreases in crop yields. 0.6 degrees Celsius of the expected Celsius stored in the oceans, and warming is still stored in the deep the 0.8 degrees Celsius masked oceans (to about 1,500 meters). by particles, adds up to the 2.3 That heat is expected to be released degrees Celsius warming we should and contribute to atmospheric have seen from the build up of warming in two to four decades. greenhouse gases to-date. The balance of 0.8 degrees Celsius

24 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 25 III. Planetary Scale Warming: How Large and How Soon? IV. Facing the Worst Scenario: the Fat Tail

Of the CO released to the air, 44 percent remains for 2 Unless we act within few years, a century or longer; 25 percent remains for at least a millennium. Due to fast atmospheric transport, CO 2 degrees Celsius warming will 2 A warming of 4 to 7.8 degrees envelopes the planet like a blanket. That blanket is growing be upon on us by 2050. Unlike thicker and warmer at an accelerating pace. It took us in a game of chess played with 220 years — from 1750 to 1970 — to emit about 1 trillion tons of CO . We emitted the next trillion in less than 40 a compassionate opponent, we Celsius can cause collapse of 2 years. Of the total 2 trillion tons humans have put into the cannot take back our flawed moves atmosphere, about 44 percent is still there. At the current when checkmate is imminent. rate of emission — 38 billion tons per year and growing at a critical natural systems. rate of about 2 percent per year — the third trillion will be added in less than 20 years and the fourth trillion by 2050. 2050, mostly due to emissions already released into the A projection such as 2 degrees How does the CO blanket warm the planet? It works The “fat tail,” when 2 atmosphere (although that amount of warming could Celsius warming by 2050 is subject to just as a cloth blanket on a cold winter night keeps us come as early as 2040 or as late as 2070). By 2050, under a three-fold uncertainty range. It is combined with the warm. The blanket warms us by trapping our body heat. a business-as-usual scenario, we will have added another important to note, however, that the current 50 billion Likewise, the CO blanket traps the heat given off by the 2 trillion tons and the 2050 warming could be as high as 2 uncertainty goes both ways: Things tons per year of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. The surface and degrees Celsius — and the committed warming would be could be a little better than the atmosphere absorb sunlight and release this solar energy 3 degrees Celsius by 2050. average expectation, or a lot worse. emissions of warming in the form of infrared energy, some of which escapes to The most disturbing part of the space. The human-made CO blanket is very efficient at What is our predicament? We get deeper and deeper into pollutants, poses 2 uncertainty is that it has a so-called the hole as time passes if we keep emitting at present rates blocking some of this infrared energy, and thus warms the “fat tail,” that is, a probability of a existential risks to under business-as-usual scenarios. The problem is that CO atmosphere and the surface. 2 warming two to three times as much, stays in the atmosphere so long; the more that is there, the civilizations and How large? Each trillion tons of emitted CO can warm the or even more, than the 2 degrees 2 hotter Earth gets. If we wait until 2050 to stop emitting ecosystems alike. Celsius that would result from best- planet by as much as 0.75 degrees Celsius. CO , there would be no way to avoid warming of at least 2 case greenhouse gas mitigations. For The 2 trillion tons emitted as of 2010 has committed the 3 degrees Celsius because the thickness of the blanket example, the IPCC (2013 report) planet to warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius. The third trillion covering Earth would have increased from 900 billion gives a 95 percent confidence range argue that our decisions should be we would add under business-as-usual scenarios would tons (as of 2010) to about 2 trillion tons (in 2050). Our of 2.5–7.8 degrees Celsius warming guided by such extreme possibilities commit us to warming by 2.25 degrees Celsius by 2030. predicament is analogous to stopping a fast-moving train: for the baseline case without any and that we should take actions to You have to put on the brakes well in advance of the point How soon? A number of factors enter the equation. mitigation actions. A warming in prevent them, much as we already do you need to stop; otherwise you will overshoot the mark. To simplify, we likely will witness about 1.5 degrees the range of 4 to 7.8 degrees Celsius in requiring buildings to withstand Celsius (or two-thirds of the committed warming) by can cause collapse of critical natural earthquakes and automobile systems such as the Arctic sea ice, manufacturers to equip our cars with the Asian monsoon system and seat belts and air bags in the unlikely the Amazon rain forest. Economists event of an accident.

26 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 27 V. From Climate Change to Climate Disruption: Amplifying Feedbacks

Observations with satellites, aircraft, Arctic Ice Extent: 1979-2012 U.S. Drought Monitor – California: October 6, 2015 Massive wildfires burning ships and weather balloons gathered (Malte Humpert/The Arctic Institute) (David Miskus, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC) across Southern California: over the past three decades are October 25, 2003 providing disturbing evidence of (Jacques Descloitres, NASA GSFC) nonlinear amplification of global warming through feedbacks. This D0 – Abnormally Dry has raised concerns that continued D1 – Moderate Drought warming beyond 2 degrees Celsius D2 – Severe Drought D3 – Extreme Drought can lead to crossing over tipping D4 – Exceptional Drought points in the climate system itself or in other natural and social systems that climate influences. Examples of climate-mediated tipping points include depletion of snowpack, drought, fires and insect infestations threatening whole forests, and the opening of new oceans in the Arctic. The following are among the many major feedbacks for which we have empirical evidence.

Nonlinear feedbacks Feedbacks between warming, Arctic sea ice and absorption of Feedbacks between warming, snowpack, Feedbacks between warming are kicking in and the sun’s heat drought and fires and atmospheric moisture leading to climate Observations from 1979 to 2012 reveal that warming in the Arctic has been The California example: California has kept up with the average warming of the With every degree of warming, amplified by 100 percent due to a feedback (a vicious cycle) between surface planet by about 0.9 degrees Celsius, with regions such as the Central Valley air holds about 7 percent more disruptions and warming, melting sea ice and increased absorption of solar heat. Melting ice warming in excess of 2 degrees Celsius. This warming melts the snowpack, and moisture. This means that warming they largely are exposes the underlying darker ocean, which then absorbs rather than reflecting the dark surface underneath absorbs more heat and therefore increases moisture is amplified by a factor of two, since underestimated in sunlight as the bright ice does. The added absorption of solar energy has been loss by 7–15 percent per degree of warming. This amplified drying becomes water vapor itself is a dominant equivalent to the addition of 100 billion tons of CO2 to the air. The large warming chronic, since the warming gets worse each year due to increase in emissions greenhouse gas. This is one of the most climate models. has exposed a whole new oceanic region in the Arctic. of warming pollutants. The chronic drying is drastically magnified into a mega- most vicious cycles that amplifies drought when rainfall decreases sporadically due to variability in the weather, greenhouse warming. Increases similar to what has happened over the past four years. The resulting extreme in water vapor also contribute to drying of the soil and vegetation contributes to fires. The forest fires, in turn, emit extreme storms and increased

more CO2 as well as black carbon and methane, the two largest contributors to rainfall, which have become more

warming next to CO2. This phenomenon is not confined to California. Similar common, leading to devastating problems are occurring throughout western North America. The melting of floods around the world. northern latitude permafrost and resultant increases in methane emissions are another potential feedback element in warming driven by similar patterns.

28 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 29 VI. The Human Dimension: Public Health and Food and Water Security

Climate change directly affects several major hurricanes, floods, human health through heat waves droughts and fires in the United Direct and Indirect Health and increasing frequency and States. Within wealthy nations, poor Effects of Coal, Petroleum severity of weather extremes such communities will tend to suffer and Gas as storms, floods and droughts. disproportionately from the health Secondary effects include wildfires, effects of climate change. (Lancet Commission, June 2015) worsened air quality, drinking water While the focus of climate change • Mortality and morbidity scarcity and contamination, crop discussions is on CO from fossil and fishery failures, and expansion 2 • Cardiovascular disease fuel combustion, particulate of transmissible diseases. Floods, pollution — nitrogen oxides, toxic • Acute respiratory infection droughts and resource shortages pollutants and ozone created from trigger population displacement, • Stroke power plants, vehicles and other mental health effects and fossil fuel combustion — also have • Mental health potentially violent conflict, both devastating impacts on human lives • Vector-borne diseases within countries and across borders. and well-being, including: Such events will affect poorer • Water- and food-borne nations much more severely, at • 3 million premature deaths diseases least initially, but wealthy countries every year from air pollution • Heat stroke and other will not be spared significant harm, originating from fossil fuel extreme weather related such as we have already seen from combustion. effects • Stroke, cardiovascular disease, • Lung cancer, drowning, acute and chronic respiratory under-nutrition The effects of climate disease and adverse birth change are being outcomes. • Harmful algal blooms felt today and future • More than 200 million tons of • Mass migration crops are destroyed every year projections represent • Decreases in labor by ozone pollution. an unacceptably productivity • Mega-droughts in sub-Saharan Cost: $70 to $840 per ton of CO high and potentially Africa and the Indo-Gangetic 2 catastrophic risk to plains of South Asia. The human health. blocking of sunlight by particles from combustion of coal and Lancet Commission petroleum, and the resulting surface dimming has slowed June 2015 down rain-bearing weather systems.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 31 VII. Environmental Equity, Ethics, and Justice: What Is Our Responsibility?

One billion of us consume about • Small island nations in the 50 percent of the fossil fuel energy tropical Pacific already are If the carbon footprint of consumed on Earth and emit about facing mass migration caused the entire 7 billion became 60 percent of the greenhouse gases. by increased sea level. If sea comparable to that of the top In contrast, the poorest 3 billion, level rise reaches 1 meter 1 billion, global CO2 emissions who still rely on pre-industrial or more, as is plausible would increase from the current era technologies for cooking and with business as usual, low- 38 billion to 150 billion tons heating, contribute only 5 percent lying coastal nations with every year and we would add a to CO pollution. Thus, the climate populations of more than 2 trillion tons every seven years, in problem is due to unsustainable 100 million people — such as turn adding 0.75 degrees Celsius consumption by just 15 percent of — will move to warming every seven years. the world’s population. Fixing the and other neighboring problem thus has to simultaneously nations. While likely slower lower the carbon footprint of the than sudden catastrophic wealthiest 1 billion, while allowing events, the size and scope of Such impacts mean that children for growth of energy consumption such climate migration could alive today, their children, and and expansion of carbon sinks, such make today’s Syrian migration their grandchildren, along with as forests, needed to empower the crisis look mild by comparison. all generations to come, will poorest 3 billion. It is in this context suffer from our unsustainable • With melting of Himalayan and that it is critical to bend the curve burning of fossil fuels. What is other glacier systems, such through transforming to carbon our responsibility to them? as those of the Andes, more neutrality in developed nations while than 1.5 billion people would sharing technology that enables be left without most of their developing nations to leapfrog over permanent water supply. use of fossil fuels to produce the energy they need. Indeed, for the • These are critical practical poorest 3 billion, doing so is literally issues, but there are even more a matter of life and death. substantial inter-generational ethical issues. A large fraction For example: of CO2 and other greenhouse • The poorest 3 billion live gases stay in the air longer than mainly in rural areas relying on a century, and when combined mixed market and subsistence with the added heat stored in farming on few acres. A four- the depths of the ocean, will year mega-drought of the type affect climate for thousands that California is experiencing of years. Moreover, increased

now would change their forms CO2 makes the oceans more of livelihood and expand the acidic, which threatens at least likelihood of both temporary and a quarter of the ocean’s species permanent migration. with extinction.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 33 Citations in the Report

The 10 solutions in the executive Auston, D., J. Brouwer, S. DenBaars, Mitigation: Institutions, Ideas, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Solutions Network and the Institute and Actions, Bending the Curve: 10 summary were distilled from the W. Glassley, W.B. Jenkins, P. Change, 2014: Climate Change 2014: for Sustainable Development and IV. Natural and Managed critical analyses provided in the seven Peterson, S. Samuelsen and V. Scalable Solutions for Carbon and Mitigation of Climate Change. O. International Relations, SSN and Ecosystems chapters listed below. These seven Srinivasan, 2016: Assessing the Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, Edenhofer, et al., Eds., Cambridge ISDIR, New York and Paris. chapters along with the executive Current and Future Needs for D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., Univ. Press, Cambridge. Lal, R., 2006: Enhancing Crop Yields summary comprise the full report: High Impact Technology Research, University of California Press, III. Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in the Developing Countries Through Crutzen, P. J., 2002: Geology of Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Development & Deployment Oakland. Restoration of the Soil Organic Mankind. Nature, 415, 23. Shindell, D., V. Ramanathan, F. Raes, Solutions for Climate and Carbon for Mitigating Climate Change, Carbon Pool in Agricultural Lands, Barnosky, A.D., J. Christensen , H. L. Cifuentes, N.T. Kim Oanh, 2011: Mitigation. The full report will be Chapter 3, Bending the Curve: 10 Land Degradation and Development. Han, T. Matlock, J. Miles, R. Rice, II. Carbon Mitigation Pathways: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon published in spring 2016 after peer Scalable Solutions for Carbon and 17: 197–209. L. Westerling and L.D. White, 2016: and Tropospheric Ozone, United review. The seven chapters, along Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, Fay, M., S. Hallegatte, A. Vogt-Schilb, Chapter 7, Establishing Common Nations Environment Programme, Jan, O, C. Tistivint, A. Turbé, C. with the references therein, form the D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., J. Rozenberg, U. Narloch and T. Kerr, Ground: Finding Better Ways to Nairobi. O’Connor, P. Lavelle, A. Flammini, basis of the quantitative estimates University of California Press, 2013: Decarbonizing Development: Communicate About Climate N. El-Hage Scialabba, J. Hoogeveen, provided in the executive summary. Oakland. Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future. Shindell, D., J.C.I. Kuylenstierna, E. Disruption, Bending the Curve: 10 M. Iweins, F. Tubiello, L. Peiser, and In addition to the seven chapters, Climate Change and Development, Vignati, R. van Dingenen, M. Amann, Delmas, M., D. Feldman, D. Kammen, Scalable Solutions for Carbon and C. Batello, 2013: Food Wastage we also list a few published studies World Bank, Washington, D.C. M., Z. Klimont, S.C. Anenberg, N. M. Mielke, D. Miller, R. Ramesh, Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, Footprint: Impacts on Natural and reports below which provided us Muller, G. Janssens-Maenhout, F. D. Rotman and D. Sperling, 2016: D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., Birol, F., B. Wanner, F. Kesicki, C. Resources, Summary Report, with critical analyses and some of the Raes, J. Schwartz, G. Faluvegi, L. How Do We Scale and Implement University of California Press, Hood, M. Baroni, S. Bennett, C. FAO, Rome. quantitative estimates mentioned in Pozzoli, K. Kupiainen, L. Höglund- Technologies and Best Practices to Oakland. Besson, S. Bouckaert, A. Bromhead, the executive summary. Isaksson, L. Emberson, D. Streets, State, National and Global Levels? O. Durand-Lassserve, F. Kęsicki ,M. V. Regulations V. Ramanathan, K. Hicks, N.T. Collins, W.D., S.J. Davis, R. Bales, Chapter 4, Bending the Curve: 10 Klingbeil, A. Kurozumi, E. Levina, J. Other references used in the Kim Oanh, G. Milly, M. Williams, Press, D.M. , 2015: American J. Burney, R. McCarthy, E. Rignot Scalable Solutions for Carbon and Liu, S. McCoy, Pwet Olejarnik, N. executive summary: V. Demkine, D. Fowler, 2012: Environmental Policy: The Failures and D.G. Victor, 2016: Science and Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, Selmet, D. Sinopoli, S. Suehiro, J. Simultaneously Mitigating Near- of Compliance, Abatement and Pathways for Bending the Curve, D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., Trüby, C. Vailles, D. Wilkinson, G. I. Radiative Forcing, Carbon Term Climate Change and Improving Mitigation, Edward Elgar, Inc., Chapter 1, Bending the Curve: 10 University of California Press, Zazias, S. Zhang, 2015: World Energy Emissions and Future Temperature Human Health and Food Security. Cheltenham, UK. Scalable Solutions for Carbon and Oakland. Outlook: Special Report-Energy and Trends: Science, 335, pp.183-9. Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, Climate Change, International Energy Sabel, C. and D.G. Victor, 2015: Allison, J., C. Horowitz, A. Millard- D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., Myhre, G. and D. Shindell et al, 2013: Agency, Paris. Ramanathan, V. and Y. Xu, 2010: Governing Global Problems under Ball, D. Press and S. Pincetl, 2016: University of California Press, Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative The Copenhagen Accord for limiting Uncertainty: Making Bottom-Up Paths to Carbon Neutrality: Lessons World Bank-Ecofys, 2014: State Oakland. Forcing. In Chapter 8, Climate global warming: Criteria, constraints, Climate Policy Work, forthcoming in from California, Chapter 5, Bending and Trends of Carbon Pricing. Change 2013: The Physical Science and available avenues. Proceedings Climatic Change, Springer, New York. Auffhammer, M., C.-Y. C. Lin the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for IEA-2014. World Energy Investment Basis, Contribution of Working Group of the National Academy of Sciences, Lawell, J.B. Bushnell, O. Deschênes Carbon and Climate Neutrality, V. Outlook, Special Report, World Bank, I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the National Academy of Sciences, and J. Zhang, 2016: Economic Ramanathan, D. Kammen and F. Washington, D.C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Washington, D.C. Considerations, Chapter 2, Bending Forman, Eds., University of California Change, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Williams, J.H., B. Haley, F. Kahrl, J. the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Press, Oakland. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Moore, A.D. Jones, M.S. Torn, H. Carbon and Climate Neutrality, V. Forman, F., S.B. Hecht, R. Morello- Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex McJeon, 2014: Pathways to Deep Ramanathan, D. Kammen and F. Frosch, K. Pezzoli and G. Solomon, and P.M. Midgley, Eds., Cambridge Decarbonization in the United States. Forman, Eds., University of 2016: Chapter 6, Equitable Social University Press, Cambridge, United Report of the Deep Decarbonization California Press, Oakland. Approaches to Climate Change Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Pathways Project of the Sustainable

34 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 35 Authors of the Full Report to be Published in Spring 2016

Chair: Veerabhadran Ramanathan

Vice-Chairs Daniel Kammen Fonna Forman

Contributors Juliann E. Allison William Glassley Stephanie Pincetl Maximilian Auffhammer Hahrie Han Daniel Press David Auston Susanna B. Hecht Ramamoorthy Ramesh Roger Bales Cara Horowitz Ronald E. Rice Anthony D. Barnosky Bryan Jenkins Eric Rignot Jack Brouwer C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell Douglas Rotman Jennifer Burney Teenie Matlock Scott Samuelsen James Bushnell Ryan McCarthy Gina Solomon Lifang Chiang Michael Mielke Daniel Sperling Jon Christensen Jack Miles Venkat Srinivasan William D. Collins Adam Millard-Ball David G. Victor Steven J. Davis Dorothy Miller Byron Washom Magali Delmas Rachel Morello-Frosch LeRoy Westerling Steven DenBaars Walter Munk Lisa D. White Olivier Deschênes Per Peterson Junjie Zhang David Feldman Keith Pezzoli

Coordinator L. Chiang

Senior Editor J. Christensen

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 37 Research Foci of UC Climate Solutions Group

Veerabhadran Ramanathan (Chair), Jennifer Burney, San Diego. Energy, David Feldman, Irvine. Water Michael Mielke, Silicon Valley Daniel Press, Santa Cruz. Venkat Srinivasan, Berkeley Lab. San Diego. Climate and atmospheric environment, climate change; food resources management and Leadership Program. Corporate Environmental politics and Next-generation batteries for science; carbon mitigation; security, production and agriculture; policy, adaptive management and environmental sustainability; state policy, agricultural sustainability, vehicle& grid; Li-ion, metal-based, interdisciplinary solutions. poverty alleviation. sustainable development. and Federal climate change policy. land preservation, water and flow batteries. quality regulation and resource Fonna Forman (Vice Chair), San James Bushnell, Davis. Energy and William Glassley, Davis. Geothermal Jack Miles, Irvine. Religion, science David G. Victor, San Diego.Highly management. Diego. Political theory; global justice; environmental economics, industrial energy; metamorphic processes, and the environment; religion, regulated industries (electric power); sustainable and equitable urban organization and regulation, and fluid/rock interaction and literature and international relations; Ramamoorthy Ramesh, Berkeley. how regulation affects operation of transformation. energy policy. continental growth. religion, poetry and music RD and D for sustainable energy; major energy markets. synthesis and materials physics of Daniel Kammen (Vice Chair), Lifang Chiang, Office of the Hahrie Han, Santa Barbara. Adam Millard-Ball, Santa Cruz. Byron Washom, San Diego. Strategic complex oxide materials. Berkeley. Renewable and appropriate President. Science and innovation Environmental politics, civic and Future of travel demand; cities and campus energy initiatives; energy energy technologies; energy access; policy; program and budgetary political engagement, political climate change; carbon trading; Ronald E. Rice, Santa Barbara. New storage development; renewable energy and innovation policy. evaluation; geography and health. behavior. transportation policy. Media, Diffusion of Innovations, energy financing. Environmental Communication. Juliann E. Allison, Riverside. Political Jon Christensen, Los Angeles. Susanna B. Hecht, Los Angeles. Dorothy Miller, Office of the LeRoy Westerling, Merced. Applied economy, environmental politics Environmental journalism, writing, Political ecology; climate change President. Translation of UC research Eric Rignot, Irvine. Glaciology, ; climate-ecosystem- and policy; community-based social editing; strategic communications; adaptation and mitigation; tropics; from lab to market; science and climate change, radar remote wildfire interactions; statistical change. mapping and visualization. long term resilience strategies. innovation policy; chemistry. sensing, ice sheet modeling, modeling. interferometry, ice-ocean Maximilian Auffhammer, Berkeley. William D. Collins, Berkeley Lab Cara Horowitz, Los Angeles. Rachel Morello-Frosch, Berkeley. Lisa D. White, Berkeley. interactions. Greenhouse gas emissions (LBNL). Interactions among sunlight, California and federal climate policy Environmental health science; social Paleontology, historical geology, forecasting; impacts of air pollution heat, coupled climate system, global and local sustainability; climate determinants of environmental Douglas Rotman, Lawrence Livermore and the history of life; K-12 science on agriculture. environmental change. change legislative reform health disparities. National Lab (LLNL). Clean energy education and outreach. technologies; energy storage; public- David Auston, Santa Barbara. Carbon Steven J. Davis, Irvine. Sustainable Bryan Jenkins, Davis. Energy Walter Munk, San Diego. Junjie Zhang, San Diego. private partnerships. neutrality applied research solutions; systems analysis; strategies for low- systems in agriculture, biomass fuel Geophysics; measurement of Environmental and resource materials science and engineering. carbon global demand for energy, production, thermal conversion, and warming ocean temperatures; ocean Scott Samuelsen, Irvine. Power economics, climate policy, applied food and goods. environmental impacts. sound transmission, deep-sea tides. generation, distribution, and econometrics. Roger Bales, Merced. Adaptation of utilization; hybrid systems; water supplies, critical ecosystems Magali Delmas, Los Angeles. C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, Davis. Per Peterson, Berkeley. High- renewable fuels; smart grid and economy to the impacts of Firm behavior in climate change Environmental and natural resource temperature reactors, high level technology. climate warming. mitigation; barriers and incentives to economics; energy economics; nuclear waste processing and energy efficient solutions. industrial organization. nuclear materials management. Gina Solomon, San Francisco. Anthony D. Barnosky, Berkeley. Science and health; health and Assessing ecological baselines and Steven DenBaars, Santa Barbara. Teenie Matlock, Merced. Cognitive Keith Pezzoli, San Diego. Planning, asthma effects of climate change. how ecosystems respond to climate Solid state lighting and energy; science, linguistics; climate bioregional theory & natural-human change; science communication. effect of materials properties on communications; political language. system interactions in city-region Daniel Sperling, Davis. high tech device performance. sustainability. Transportation technology Jack Brouwer, Irvine. Alternative Ryan McCarthy, CA Air Resources assessment; energy/environmental energy; high temperature Olivier Deschênes, Santa Barbara. Board. Transportation, energy and Stephanie Pincetl, Los Angeles. aspects transportation; electrochemical dynamics and Climate change health and economic climate planning and policy; SLCPs Land use, land use change, urban transportation policy. integrated energy systems. impacts; relationship between reductions planning. environments and transformation of energy and labor markets. urban natural environments.

38 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 39