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Loen Entertainment (016170 KS) Loen Entertainment Korea Consumer Discretionary 8 July 2016 Loen Entertainment (016170 KS) Loen Entertainment Target price: KRW87,000 Share price (7 Jul): KRW71,700 | Up/downside: +21.3% Initiation: turning up the volume Dominant digital-music platform; large number of paying subscribers Thomas Y. Kwon (82) 2 787 9181 Strong earnings-growth cycle set to emerge from 2H16 on price hike [email protected] Initiating with a Buy (1) rating and 12-month TP of KRW87,000 Investment case: We initiate coverage of Loen Entertainment, the leading Share price performance digital-music service platform in Korea, with a Buy (1) call. We believe the (KRW) (%) company is set for strong revenue and earnings growth from 2H16, 100,000 140 boosted by a combination of an increase in its digital music service prices, 90,000 125 paying subscribers, revenue from new content publishing and operating 80,000 110 70,000 95 synergies as a result of its collaboration with parent company Kakao 60,000 80 (035720 KS, KRW95,000, Buy [1]). Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Loen Ent (LHS) Relative to KOSPI (RHS) Catalysts: Powering up the Melon platform: In our view, Loen will continue to enhance its revenue streams, while ramping up its business 12-month range 64,300-96,900 expansion in related commerce and overseas. We forecast revenue from Market cap (USDbn) 1.57 its Melon B2C platform to grow at a CAGR of 20% for 2015-18E, on 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 3.35 Shares outstanding (m) 25 paying-user growth, an increase in average revenue per paying user Major shareholder Kakao (76.4%) (ARPPU) and the growing scale of its music-content related businesses. Financial summary (KRW) Kakao and Loen will pollinate and grow: We expect both companies to Year to 31 Dec 16E 17E 18E find potential service synergies in acquiring paying consumers, locking in Revenue (bn) 432 580 639 Operating profit (bn) 76 114 122 user traffic, lowering marketing costs and selling new entertainment Net profit (bn) 63 94 102 content. Including around 1.7m Kakao Music users, we believe Loen will Core EPS (fully-diluted) 2,501 3,710 4,023 increase the proportion of paying users to total registered users to 18% in EPS change (%) 26.1 48.4 8.4 Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (0.5) 7.7 2.4 2018, from 13% in 2015, thanks to better accessibility and user experience. PER (x) 28.7 19.3 17.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.7 1.0 1.2 Streamlining the ecosystem; winning strategies: By enhancing its DPS 500 750 850 PBR (x) 6.0 4.4 3.5 platform power for content distribution and production in Korea, Loen EV/EBITDA (x) 15.7 10.4 8.8 should continue to strengthen its revenue streams and earnings-generating ROE (%) 23.5 26.3 21.8 power. Management expects non-Melon platform revenue to grow strongly Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts in 2017 and contribute to improve its overall profitability, as it accelerates content production and distribution in Asia and China. Valuation: Our 12-month TP of KRW87,000 is based on our average EPS (KRW3,106) for 2016-17E, applying a target PER of 28x, the average for 2011-15. We believe investors should consider the full business impact of the hike in its digital music service price as well as Kakao and Loen’s joint efforts to create service synergies from 2H16. Our Buy (1) rating reflects what we see as Loen’s competitive positioning in Korea’s music industry, its powerful business-expansion strategy and its scalable revenue model with high profitability. Risks: The key risks to our call include a slowdown in paying subscribers for Melon services, intensifying competition from both global music-service providers and local sites, lower visibility on content production and its artist- management business, and a slower-than-expected ramp-up in new business-growth initiatives. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 25 Loen Entertainment (016170 KS): 8 July 2016 Table of contents Changing the way many listen ................................................................................ 6 A leader in streaming digital music ........................................................................ 8 Moving music: now and future ...............................................................................13 Playing a new tune ..................................................................................................17 Earnings outlook .....................................................................................................20 Investment concerns ...............................................................................................22 2 Loen Entertainment (016170 KS): 8 July 2016 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook Loen: revenue mix by service offering (2009-18E) We expect Loen to continue to add paying subscribers 700 100% and record higher revenue from the hike in its Melon 600 platform subscription price in 2H16, and fully from 2017. 500 90% Its profitability should start to improve from 3Q16 as 400 Loen starts to work closely with its parent company, 300 80% Kakao, to promote its music content, acquire new paying 200 subscribers, and pursue effective promotional 100 campaigns. We forecast the company’s revenue from its 0 70% content platform including Melon B2C services to grow 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E at a CAGR of 20% for 2015-18E, and account for 85% Others (concerts and miscellanies) Merchandise of its total revenue for 2016E. Products Contents % of contents sales to net revenue Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Valuation Loen: share-price trend and quarterly operating profit We expect Loen’s share price to perform strongly in (KRW) 2H16 and 2017 and trade at a target PER of 28x, the 120,000 20 average for 2011-15, as we expect its operating profit 100,000 15 and earnings to enter a strong growth cycle from 4Q16. 80,000 This should be supported by strong operating leverage 60,000 10 from increase in prices to download and stream songs 40,000 on its platform, effective control on marketing costs, and 5 the growing scale of its content-production business. 20,000 0 0 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 Operating profit(KRWbn, RHS) Share price(LHS) Paying users(m, RHS) Source: Company, FNData, Daiwa forecasts Earnings revisions Loen: Daiwa’s EPS forecasts vs. Bloomberg consensus The Bloomberg-consensus 2017 earnings forecasts for (KRW) Loen have been revised up since 3Q15 to factor in an 3,800 increase in paying subscribers, the potential benefit from 3,600 3,400 the price hike for its online streaming and song 3,200 downloading services, and the recent service synergies 3,000 with its parent company (Kakao) in acquiring new music 2,800 players. 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Daiwa forecast 2016 Consensus 2016 Daiwa forecast 2017 Consensus 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts 3 Loen Entertainment (016170 KS): 8 July 2016 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Total registered users (m) 20 23 25 26 27 28 28 28 Total paying users (m) 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.6 4.4 4.9 5.0 Portion of streaming paid users (%) 52.4 53.2 54.0 54.8 55.0 52.0 50.0 49.0 Profit and loss (KRWbn) Year to 31 Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Music content Revenues 147 160 230 292 309 368 482 522 Products Revenues 13 16 17 19 22 32 37 46 Other Revenue 7 10 5 12 27 32 62 71 Total Revenue 167 185 253 323 358 432 580 639 Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COGS (3) (5) (7) (11) (14) (40) (51) (66) SG&A (135) (150) (208) (254) (281) (315) (416) (451) Other op.expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating profit 29 30 37 58 63 76 114 122 Net-interest inc./(exp.) 2 3 2 3 3 5 6 8 Assoc/forex/extraord./others (3) (1) 5 (2) (1) 2 3 3 Pre-tax profit 28 32 45 60 66 83 123 133 Tax (7) (8) (11) (14) (16) (20) (29) (31) Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Net profit (reported) 21 24 34 46 50 63 94 102 Net profit (adjusted) 21 24 34 46 50 63 94 102 EPS (reported)(KRW) 846 943 1,349 1,801 1,983 2,501 3,710 4,023 EPS (adjusted)(KRW) 846 943 1,349 1,801 1,983 2,501 3,710 4,023 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(KRW) 846 943 1,349 1,801 1,983 2,501 3,710 4,023 DPS (KRW) 170 189 0 711 0 500 750 850 EBIT 29 30 37 58 63 76 114 122 EBITDA 39 41 51 77 83 100 142 154 Cash flow (KRWbn) Year to 31 Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Profit before tax 28 32 45 60 66 83 123 133 Depreciation and amortisation 10 11 14 18 19 23 28 32 Tax paid (6) (12) (6) (8) (17) (18) (27) (30) Change in working capital (25) (4) 9 10 14 15 (9) 16 Other operational CF items 0 1 (8) (3) (4) (0) (0) (0) Cash flow from operations 8 28 54 77 79 104 114 152 Capex (4) (4) (4) (5) (3) (3) (4) (5) Net (acquisitions)/disposals (7) (4) (25) (44) 6 (6) (6) (7) Other investing CF items (12) (11) (21) (15) (18) (28) (28) (28) Cash flow from investing (23) (20) (50) (64) (15) (37) (39) (40) Change in debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net share issues/(repurchases) 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dividends paid (4) (4) (5) 0 (18) 0 (13) (19) Other financing CF items 13 0 (0) (0) (0) 0 0 0 Cash flow from financing 18 (4) (5) (0) (18) 0 (13) (19) Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in cash 3 4 (1) 13 46 66 62 93 Free cash flow 3 24 49 72 76 100 109 146 Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts 4 Loen Entertainment (016170 KS): 8 July 2016 Financial summary continued … Balance sheet (KRWbn) As at 31 Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash & short-term investment 63 71 95 162 187 253 347 464 Inventory 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Accounts receivable 27
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