Global Trends and the Future of Latin America
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
GLOBAL TRENDS AND THE FUTURE OF LATIN AMERICA WHY AND HOW LATIN AMERICA SHOULD THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE Sergio Bitar SEPTEMBER 2016 SECOND EDITION GLOBAL TRENDS REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2016 FOREWORD The Inter-American Dialogue continues to give priority of long-term political, economic, social, and security attention to raising awareness of global trends analysis scenarios to inform policy decisions, comparable efforts and how future scenarios will affect Latin America. For in Latin America lag behind, as the region’s policymakers this reason I am pleased to present this updated version remain primarily focused on short-term domestic agendas. of the Dialogue’s report on why and how Latin America Too few institutions in the region are carrying out the data should think about the future. Written by Dialogue senior collection, research, or analysis needed to understand fellow Sergio Bitar, who directs our initiative on global critical trends at the global level, and incorporate them trends, the current edition incorporates new elements and into policy thinking. shifts in global trends that present new opportunities for Latin American countries. Since the original was published Addressing such a challenge can greatly improve in December 2013, several changes stand out: the outlook for the region’s economic, social, and environmental welfare and security. Against this ◼◼ The drop in birth rates has become more pronounced; backdrop, in 2011, with support of the Inter-American Development Bank, the Inter-American Dialogue launched ◼◼ Challenges to governance have become greater; its Long-Term Global Trends Initiative. The program seeks to foster the practice and culture of long-term strategic ◼◼ Inequalities caused by technological change have thinking in Latin America and build the capacity of regional intensified; experts and institutions to carry out policy-relevant, forward-looking studies. In 2015, the project produced ◼◼ The race for innovation has accelerated; a regularly updated database of global trends reports (www.globaltrends.thedialogue.org) and periodically ◼◼ The impact of climate change has grown; issues newsletters addressing future scenarios and how to organize institutional and human capacity in Latin ◼◼ The pace of renewable energy installation American countries in response. has increased; This new report provides an original and comprehensive ◼◼ New security risks have emerged, specifically the sharp framework for achieving these objectives. Drawing on rise in terrorist and fundamentalist groups. decades of policy experience in roles ranging from senator to minister in three different presidential administrations There have also been positive signs on security, such in Chile, Sergio Bitar makes a compelling argument for as US political agreements with Iran and Cuba, and long-term global thinking in Latin America and reviews governability, thanks to the adoption of the Sustainable six global trends to which policymakers should pay Development Goals by the United Nations. This edition particular attention. He concludes by proposing steps that explores new areas of opportunity for Latin America, Latin America can take to confront challenges and take including rising water use for food production, new advantage of opportunities in five key areas: democratic industrialization and innovation, renewable energy, and governance, economic competitiveness, social inclusion, institution building. In fact, institution building emerges geopolitics, and sustainable development. as an even greater challenge for combating increased corruption and channeling amplified demands for We hope that this new report will help spur constructive participation and equality. debate about Latin America’s future among policymakers, business leaders, and members of civil society. We are As this report makes clear, Latin America’s future is grateful to the Inter-American Development Bank for its inextricably connected to developments taking place crucial support of this initiative. beyond the borders of individual nations. Michael Shifter, While a number of governments, businesses, and civil President society organizations in Europe, the United States, and Asia are addressing this new reality by carrying out studies Global Trends and the Future of Latin America I TRENDS Global Trends and Future Scenarios ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author would like to thank Santiago Levy, vice president for sectors and knowledge of the Inter- GLOBALAmerican Development Bank, for his support and encouragement in the course of developing the project. He is also indebted to Matthew Burrows, who served for many years as counselor to the National Intelligence Council and is now director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative. Burrows generously shared wise advice and valuable information on projects and institutions involved in long- term global trends work. This report benefited enormously from insightful editing and comments on early TRENDSdrafts by Michael Shifter, president, and Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue. &Future ScenariosThe author is especially grateful to Alexandra Bobak, Caitlin Reilly, and Missy Reif, staff assistants at the Dialogue, for their tireless research and careful editing. He would also like to acknowledge Joan Caivano, the Dialogue’s deputy to the president and director of special projects, for her superb management of the production of the report. GLOBAL GLOBAL TRENDS TandR FutureEN ScenariosDS &Future Scenarios GLOBAL TRENDS REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2016 Contents I. WHY AND HOW LATIN AMERICA SHOULD THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE ......................................1 A. Purpose of the Report. 1 B. The Importance of Foresight .................................................................1 C. Can Latin America Shorten the Distance? ........................................................2 D. Six Global Trends . 3 1. Disruptive technologies ...................................................................4 2. The power of natural resources .............................................................6 a. Water scarcity .......................................................................7 b. Energy challenges and Latin America’s position ............................................9 3. Demography and power ..................................................................10 a. Middle class: engine of development ....................................................13 b. Migration on the rise ................................................................14 c. Displacement of power ...............................................................15 4. The city of the future ....................................................................17 5. Tackling climate change .................................................................18 6. Citizens’ empowerment and government reform. 18 E. Unexpected Events: How Do We Detect Them? ...................................................20 II. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA IN THE NEW GLOBAL SYSTEM .....................21 A. Foresight Capacity Must Be Strengthened .......................................................21 B. How to Enhance Five Strategic Goals ..........................................................22 1. Democratic governance and citizen empowerment. 23 2. Productive transformation for competitiveness ...............................................25 a. Education to improve innovation and equality .............................................28 b. Competitiveness, energy, and natural resources ...........................................29 c. Water, agriculture, and aquaculture .....................................................32 d. The new industrialization .............................................................33 3. Social inclusion to reduce inequality .......................................................34 4. Integration and new alliances in a multipolar world ............................................36 5. Sustainable development and climate change ................................................39 C. How to Prepare ............................................................................40 Notes .....................................................................................42 Global Trends and the Future of Latin America III GLOBAL TRENDS REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2016 I. WHY AND HOW LATIN AMERICA SHOULD THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE A. PURPOSE OF THE REPORT B. THE IMPORTANCE OF FORESIGHT Latin America must strengthen its ability to plan forward In recent decades, Latin American countries have and deepen its strategic reflection if it is to govern better strengthened their democratic systems and respect for and improve the design of public policies. Achieving institutions, balanced the handling of public finances, this may require countries in the region to familiarize efficiently managed the macro economy, and implemented themselves with global scenarios and to explore the types inclusive social policies that seek to reduce poverty and and scale of challenges that they might confront. A national inequality. However, they lag behind in a very important perspective is not sufficient; a global vision is essential. area: the ability to devise a strategic vision that helps prioritize goals and build political agreement. Instead, Globalization creates a stream of effects that cannot their projects and policies are usually confined to the be controlled by individual countries. With an outlook national sphere, and thus they