University of London Japan's Security Policy and The
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University of London Japan’s Security Policy and the ASEAN Regional Forum: The Search for Multilateral Security in the Asia Pacific Takeshi YUZA WA London School of Economics and Political Science Department of International Relations A thesis submitted to the University of London for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations 2005 UMI Number: U61BB59 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U613359 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 1 ! Lid*-»y British i_itx»ry ot noiiticai and Eoonomic Science iHc Sfc S F Abstract This thesis explores changes in Japan’s conception of and policy toward security multilateralism in the Asia-Pacific region after the end of the Cold War with special reference to the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). To understand the complex processes behind the changes in and formation of these perceptions, this study develops an eclectic analysis, which draws on the insights of various theoretical models in International Relations (IR). Based on a persistent analysis of Japan’s diplomacy in security institution building over the decade, this study goes on not only to illuminate the problems and the direction of Japan’s post-Cold War security policy but also to provide an empirical basis for examining the validity of three theoretical perspectives on the role and efficacies of security institutions, namely realism, neoliberal institutionalism and constructivism. This thesis makes the observation that notwithstanding strong multilateral impulses arising in Japanese policy thinking in the early 1990s, Japan’s enthusiasm for regional security multilateralism has dwindled since the late 1990s. It argues that this has been mainly due to Japan’s disappointing experiences in the ARF, evinced by abortive efforts to promote cooperative security measures and the failings of multilateral security diplomacy in addressing Japan’s security concerns. Japan’s enthusiasm for regional security multilateralism has been further diluted by a number of domestic and international constraints on the ARF policy. Combined with perceived limitations of the effectiveness of the ARF, these factors have made Japanese policymakers more inclined to devote their energies to the military dimension of the nation’s security policy, in particular its defence cooperation with the USA. Consequently, Japanese conceptions of the ARF have been shifted from an optimistic liberal to a more pessimistic realist perspective, from which it can at best be seen to contribute to making the existing bilateral alliance arrangements in the region work more smoothly. 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgements.....................................................................................7 List of Abbreviations.................................................................................8 Introduction............................................................................................... 11 1 The ARF within the IR research agenda: Realist, Neoliberal Institutionalist and Constructivist perspectives............................... 14 2 Research on Japan’s policy towards the ARF and Asia Pacific security multilateralism .................................................................... 21 3 The debate on the course and direction of Japan’s security policy in IR literature.......................................................................................23 4 Research method................................................................................26 5 Sources............................................................................................... 30 6 Structures............................................................................................31 Chapter 1 Japan’s growing interest in regional security multilateralism: The road to the Nakayama proposal (1989-1991) Introduction.................................................................................................. 35 1-1 The evolution of Japan’s security policy during the Cold War...........36 1-2 Japan’s negative position on Asia-Pacific security multilateralism during the Cold War .......................................................................... 43 1-3 Japan’s changing policy towards multilateralism: Satoh’s concept of a multifaceted approach to Asia-Pacific security and the formation of the Nakayama proposal of 1991.........................................................45 1-4 The US and ASEAN’s negative reactions to the Nakayama proposal............................................................................................. 54 1-5 Underlying factors for the Nakayama proposal...................................56 1 -6 Alternative explanations for the Nakayama proposal..........................63 Conclusion....................................................................................................68 Chapter 2Japan’s behind-the scene diplomacy in the formation of the ASEAN Regional Forum and the surge of Japan’s enthusiasm for regional security multilateralism (1992-1993) Introduction.................................................................................................. 71 2-1 Japan’s behind-the scene diplomacy in the formation of the ARF.... 72 2-2 Growing enthusiasm for regional security multilateralism after the Nakayama Proposal........................................................................... 78 2-3 The factors behind Japan’s rising expectations for regional security multilateralism after the Nakayama proposal....................................81 2-4 Japan’s changing expectations for the ARF: Beyond a forum for security dialogue ................................................................................ 88 2-5 The implications of multilateralism for Japan’s overall Asia-Pacific security policy: Japan’s long-term expectations of constructing a multi-layered regional security structure ........................................ 94 Conclusion.....................................................................................................96 Chapter 3Japan's policy on the evolution of the multilateral Confidence Building Measures in the ARF: The search for greater military transparency Introduction................................................................................................. 98 3-1 Japan’s approach to CBM: Steering a middle course between the two divergent views of CBMs.................................................................98 3-2 The success of Japanese proposal and the adoption of the Concept Paper................................................................................................. 106 3-3 Challenges for moving the ARF beyond modest CBMs.....................112 3-4 Japan’s conception of the ARF three years after its formation: The mid term strategy for the ARF................................................... 116 3-5 The struggle to move the ARF toward the implementation stage.... 118 3-6 Increasing frustration with the CBM process..................................... 121 3-7 The multilateral CBM process after the Sixth ARF: Malting steady steps towards military transparency or just escaping it?...................125 Conclusion....................................................................................................128 Chapter 4 Japan, the ARF and challenges for the promotion of preventive diplomacy measures Introduction...................................................................................................130 4-1 Debate on the concept and measures of Preventive Diplomacy in the inception years of the ARF............................................................... 130 4-2 Japan’s approach to PD in the inception years of the ARF................ 132 4-3 Initiating the work for PD in the ARF................................................ 134 4-4 Stagnation in progress towards PD: Uncertainty over the overlap between CBM and PD .......................................................................136 4-5 Two divergent views of PD................................................................137 4-6 The resurgent issues of ASEAN’s leadership role and the institutionalisation of the ARF: The implications for PD................. 143 4-7 The controversy over ASEAN’s paper on the concept and principles of PD and Japan’s initiatives for an enhanced role for the ARF chair...........................................................................................145 4-8 The adoption of three papers on PD: Progress or posturing? 150 Conclusion..................................................................................................... 153 Chapter 5 Japan’s security relations with China and the ARF(1994-1997).'Multilateral security diplomacy as a means for reassurance, engagement or containment? Introduction.............................................................................. 155 5-1 China’s resistance to multilateral discussions on regional security issues...........................................................................156