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IMT Traffic Estimates for the Years 2020 to 2030

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IMT Traffic Estimates for the Years 2020 to 2030 Report ITU-R M.2370-0 (07/2015) IMT traffic estimates for the years 2020 to 2030 M Series Mobile, radiodetermination, amateur and related satellite services ii Rep. ITU-R M.2370-0 Foreword The role of the Radiocommunication Sector is to ensure the rational, equitable, efficient and economical use of the radio- frequency spectrum by all radiocommunication services, including satellite services, and carry out studies without limit of frequency range on the basis of which Recommendations are adopted. The regulatory and policy functions of the Radiocommunication Sector are performed by World and Regional Radiocommunication Conferences and Radiocommunication Assemblies supported by Study Groups. Policy on Intellectual Property Right (IPR) ITU-R policy on IPR is described in the Common Patent Policy for ITU-T/ITU-R/ISO/IEC referenced in Annex 1 of Resolution ITU-R 1. Forms to be used for the submission of patent statements and licensing declarations by patent holders are available from http://www.itu.int/ITU-R/go/patents/en where the Guidelines for Implementation of the Common Patent Policy for ITU-T/ITU-R/ISO/IEC and the ITU-R patent information database can also be found. Series of ITU-R Reports (Also available online at http://www.itu.int/publ/R-REP/en) Series Title BO Satellite delivery BR Recording for production, archival and play-out; film for television BS Broadcasting service (sound) BT Broadcasting service (television) F Fixed service M Mobile, radiodetermination, amateur and related satellite services P Radiowave propagation RA Radio astronomy RS Remote sensing systems S Fixed-satellite service SA Space applications and meteorology SF Frequency sharing and coordination between fixed-satellite and fixed service systems SM Spectrum management Note: This ITU-R Report was approved in English by the Study Group under the procedure detailed in Resolution ITU-R 1. Electronic Publication Geneva, 2015 ITU 2015 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, by any means whatsoever, without written permission of ITU. Rep. ITU-R M.2370-0 1 REPORT ITU-R M.2370-0 IMT traffic estimates for the years 2020 to 2030 (2015) TABLE CONTENTS 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 2 2 Related ITU-R Recommendations and Reports ............................................................. 3 3 Trends impacting traffic estimation beyond 2020 .......................................................... 3 3.1 Drivers ................................................................................................................ 3 3.2 Shifting demography .......................................................................................... 7 4 Mobile device proliferation ............................................................................................ 8 4.1 Statistical information ......................................................................................... 8 4.2 Estimations of global number of mobile subscriptions to 2030 ......................... 11 5 Global IMT traffic estimations to 2030 .......................................................................... 15 5.1 Estimation 1 ........................................................................................................ 15 5.2 Estimation 2 ........................................................................................................ 19 5.3 Estimation 3 ........................................................................................................ 20 6 Traffic asymmetry .......................................................................................................... 22 6.1 Description of traffic asymmetry ........................................................................ 22 6.2 Examples of traffic asymmetry ........................................................................... 23 6.3 Traffic asymmetry volumes in recent years ........................................................ 24 6.4 Traffic asymmetry estimation to 2024 ................................................................ 26 6.5 Traffic asymmetry analysis in the space and time domains ............................... 29 7 Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 30 Annex 1 – Examples of basic esstimation methods ................................................................. 31 Annex 2 – Country-specific information ................................................................................. 32 Annex 3 – Some examples of subscribers’ traffic profiles ...................................................... 40 Annex 4 – Traffic characteristics of future applications supported by IMT ............................ 44 2 Rep. ITU-R M.2370-0 1 Introduction Mobile communication has become one of the largest and most significant platforms in history, transforming the way we communicate, experience entertainment and make use of the Internet. In May 2015, over the current world’s population of 7.3 billion, there were about 7.5 billion mobile subscriptions (including machine-to-machine/M2M) worldwide and about 3.7 billion people connected1. As many people have multiple subscriptions, the total number of subscriptions is higher than the number of people connected with mobile. Mobile communications contribute positively to the economic and social developments of both developed and developing countries. The evolution of mobile communications toward mobile broadband (MBB)2 results in a new opportunity to bridge the gap between Internet-connected and unconnected people. As of September 2014, 2.3 billion (or 30%) of mobile subscriptions were data subscriptions3. The spread of smart mobile devices – smartphones and tablets – and the associated innovative mobile broadband applications have resulted in an increase in the volume of mobile data traffic and it is still growing, putting more emphasis on MBB. ITU-R has developed two documents on traffic, as well as spectrum requirements to 2020, namely: − Report ITU-R M.2243-0 (11/2011) – Assessment of the global mobile broadband deployments and forecasts for International Mobile Telecommunications. − Report ITU-R M.2290-0 (12/2013) – Future spectrum requirements estimate for terrestrial IMT. Report ITU-R M.2243 reviews both the market and traffic forecasts for IMT that were developed in previous study periods (2000-2007) and assesses the perspectives and future needs of MBB that would be supported by IMT until 2020. In addition, it provides traffic forecasts up to 2015, and in some cases up to 2020, taking into account new market trends and market drivers. Report ITU-R M.2290 provides a global perspective on the future spectrum requirements estimate for terrestrial IMT. In order to estimate the spectrum requirements for 2020, this Report predicts future traffic growth up to 2020 and derived input parameters representing a possible set of global scenarios of the future mobile traffic growth. The first Report shows that mobile data traffic has grown dramatically in the recent years; whilst the second Report predicts more growth still to come towards 2020. Building on the Reports described above, this Report analyses trends impacting future IMT traffic growth beyond the year 2020 and estimates the traffic demands for the period 2020 to 2030. There are many drivers impacting future IMT traffic growth and the characteristics of the traffic that are envisaged to generate this growth are also described in this Report. These drivers are expected to evolve over time, and this evolution will be different in each country due to social/economic differences. This results in a wide variation in national estimates of traffic in the period 2020-2030. Given this high degree of variability, the absence of a complete catalogue of all national estimates, and the inability to collect a broader sample of national estimates, this Report has focused on global traffic forecasts for the period 2020-2030. 1 GSMA Intelligence, April 2015, https://gsmaintelligence.com . 2 In this report, Mobile Broadband (MBB) refers to devices using technologies that can offer at least IMT capabilities. 3 “The State of Broadband 2014: Broadband for all”, A Report by the Broadband Commission, 21 September 2014, page 19. http://www.broadbandcommission.org/Documents/reports/bb-annualreport2014.pdf . Rep. ITU-R M.2370-0 3 2 Related ITU-R Recommendations and Reports Report ITU-R M.2243-0 – Assessment of the global mobile broadband deployments and forecasts for International Mobile Telecommunications Report ITU-R M.2290-0 – Future spectrum requirements estimate for terrestrial IMT 3 Trends impacting traffic estimation beyond 2020 3.1 Drivers There are many drivers influencing the growth of future IMT traffic such as the adoption of IMT-20204 devices with enhanced capabilities that require increased bit-rates and bandwidth, increased video usage, device proliferation and application uptake. Similar drivers increased traffic in the transition from IMT-2000 to IMT-Advanced. The main drivers behind the anticipated traffic growth are5: – Video usage: Usage of video-on-demand services will continue to grow and resolution of these videos will continue to increase. By 2020, it is expected that people will want to watch high-resolution audio-visual content (HD/UHD), regardless of the way the content is delivered. A study by Bell Labs estimates that by 2016 video streaming will
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