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Submarine Slope Stability Submarine Slope Stability Based on M.S. Engineering Thesis Development of a Database and Assessment of Seafloor Slope Stability Based on Published Literature By James Johnathan Hance, B. S. The University of Texas at Austin Supervisor Dr. Stephen G. Wright The University of Texas at Austin Project Report Prepared for the Minerals Management Service Under the MMS/OTRC Cooperative Research Agreement 1435-01-99-CA-31003 Task Order 18217 MMS Project 421 August 2003 OTRC Library Number: 8/03B121 For more information contact: Offshore Technology Research Center Texas A&M University 1200 Mariner Drive College Station, Texas 77845-3400 (979) 845-6000 or Offshore Technology Research Center The University of Texas at Austin 1 University Station C3700 Austin, Texas 78712-0318 (512) 471-6989 A National Science Foundation Graduated Engineering Research Center Submarine Slope Stability Executive Summary Background and Context Oil and gas developments often require placing equipment, e.g., subsea wells, pipelines and flowlines, foundation systems for floating structures, in areas with sloping seafloors. Submarine slope failures can occur in such areas and create soil slides. Thus the stability of submarine slopes must be considered in selecting the site for installing and designing seafloor equipment. Assessing submarine slope stability requires estimating the likelihood, extent, and impact of a slide during the lifetime of the facility. This assessment is difficult due to the large difference in time scales between the project life (10’s of years) and the geologic processes and triggering mechanisms that cause the slides (10,000’s of years) Such an assessment is best approached through a probabilistic risk analysis that considers the risks to the equipment; the causes, likelihood, and behavior of submarine slides; and the uncertainties. A forum of experts from industry, government, and academia was held in 2002 (1, 2) to discuss the current state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice and to identify areas where future research was needed to advance capabilities to assess submarine slope stability and the impact of submarine slides. That forum concluded that a comprehensive data base should be developed for historical slides containing information on the seafloor characteristics (soil properties, slope topography, geology), triggering mechanisms, and the characteristics and extent of the slide. This database could then be used to develop, improve, and test models for predicting slope stability, slide occurrence and behavior, and to assess the impact of uncertainties in seafloor characteristics and triggering mechanisms in predicting the likelihood and behavior of slides. By looking for similarities between a new site under investigation for a subsea installation and sites of historical slides, data from the historical slides might also be useful in assessing the slope stability and risks of a slide for the new site. This was the basis for the project reported here. Development of a Database and Assessment of Seafloor Slope Stability based on Published Literature This work resulted from a research project conducted by J.J. Hance for his Master of Science in Engineering at the University of Texas under the supervision of Dr. Stephen G. Wright. Hance’s thesis (3) is attached Based on published literature, a database was compiled the includes 534 submarine slide events. The database contains information on the geographic location, water depth, date and type of failure, potential triggering mechanisms, dimensions, slope angle, and soil types and properties. The data were examined to identify important characteristics of seafloor slope failures. While the database is substantial, significant geotechnical information was not available for many slope failures. Fourteen different triggering mechanisms were identified and included in the database. Earthquakes are the most commonly reported trigger. Slope stability analyses were performed to assess the likelihood of slides being triggered by gravity, rapid sedimentation (underconsolidation) and earthquakes. The analyses revealed that it is unlikely that most of the seafloor slope failures were triggered by gravity loads alone. Earthquake loading was confirmed as a common trigger, and rapid sedimentation (underconsolidation) was also a likely trigger of many slope failures. It is important to note that the study revealed that a relatively large number of submarine slides occurred on much flatter (less than 10 degree) slopes and traveled much greater distances than slope failures on land. This strongly suggests that different mechanisms are prevalent for submarine slides, compared to those on land. Hydroplaning is one mechanism that may explain such large runout distances. The mechanism of hydroplaning is summarized, and a simple sliding block model is presented to illustrate how conditions for hydroplaning can be developed. Rheological models have also been developed to explain slide runout, and several models are described. However, the rheological models do not seem to explain some of the very large runout distances observed in both experiments and actual seafloor slides. For many slides, hydroplaning appears to be the mechanism that can best account for large runout distances. References Wright, Stephen G., "Forum on Risk Assessment for Submarine Slope Stability - Report of a Forum Held In Houston, Texas - May 10 And 11, 2002", June, 2002 (Offshore Technology Research Center Report). Wright, Stephen G., Gilbert, Robert B., and Smith, Charles E., "Risk Assessment of Submarine Slope Stability in Deepwater - Issues and Priorities", Proceedings, 14th Deep Offshore Technology Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana, November 13-15, 2003. Hance, J.J. (2003). “Development of a database and assessment of seafloor slope stability based on published literature.” M.S. Thesis, University of Texas at Austin. Development of a Database and Assessment of Seafloor Slope Stability based on Published Literature by James Johnathan Hance, B.S. Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering The University of Texas at Austin August 2003 Development of a Database and Assessment of Seafloor Slope Stability based on Published Literature APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Stephen G. Wright Robert B. Gilbert Copyright by James Johnathan Hance 2003 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are several people I must thank for their efforts and encouragement during the preparation of this thesis. Without their positive involvement in this process, this thesis would not have been completed. First, I am grateful for the opportunity to work with my primary supervisor, Dr. Stephen G. Wright. His continued interest and involvement in the development of this project has been rewarding. He has offered guidance in maintaining a proper direction for this thesis while ensuring that the research process has been educational for me as a young engineer. I am thankful that Dr. Robert Gilbert became involved in this project. He was efficient in reviewing the manuscript and results from the database. I also thank Dr. Ellen Rathje who helped me with the part of my thesis that involved evaluating seismicity and pseudo-static slope stability. I am grateful for the financial support provided by the Offshore Technology and Research Center (OTRC) during my involvement with this project. I thank the people on the 9th floor who always had a smile on their face, namely Teresa Tice-Boggs, Chris Treviño, Alicia Zapata, and Dr. Roy Olson. A special thanks also goes out to the friends I have made within the Geotechnical Engineering Program. iv My parents, James Hance and Brenda Ruffner, have always been a driving force in my life, and I am thankful for their encouragement during my graduate studies at The University of Texas at Austin. I would also like to thank my stepparents, Gary Ruffner and Joan Hance, and my younger brothers, Matt, Pat and Harry. Finally, I must acknowledge the daily support and love provided by my wonderful fiancée, Jennifer Graves. She has helped me whenever necessary, and I am forever indebted to her. v Development of a Database and Assessment of Seafloor Slope Stability based on Published Literature by James Johnathan Hance, M.S.E. The University of Texas at Austin, 2003 SUPERVISOR: Stephen G. Wright A database of seafloor slope failures has been created from the published literature. The database contains information on the geographic location, date and type of failure, potential triggering mechanisms, soil types, soil properties, dimensions, slope angle, and water depths for the slope failures. Data in the database have been examined to identify important characteristics of seafloor slope failures. However, while there is substantial information in the database, significant geotechnical information was lacking for many of the slope failures. Fourteen different triggering mechanisms have been identified and are included in the database. Each of these triggers is discussed. The most common trigger reported is earthquake loading. vi Seafloor slope failures (slides) can affect large areas and volumes of soil, and they tend to be larger than subaerial landslides. Also, in comparison to subaerial landslides, seafloor slides tend to travel larger distances and occur on flatter slopes. Slope stability analyses were performed and results are presented to assess the likelihood of slides being triggered by gravity, rapid
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