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Stability Programme Update Kingdom of Spain 2016

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Stability Programme Update Kingdom of Spain 2016 STABILITY PROGRAMME UPDATE KINGDOM OF SPAIN 2016 - 2019 Stability Programme Update 2016-2019 e-NIPO 720-15-057-9 Stability Programme Update 2016-2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 5 2. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 7 3. MACROECONOMIC PROSPECTS ............................................................................... 10 3.1. Recent evolution of the Spanish economy .................................................... 10 3.1.1. International environment ......................................................................... 10 3.1.2. Recent evolution and adjustment of macroeconomic imbalances in Spain in 2015 .......................................................................................................... 11 3.2. Macroeconomic assumptions .......................................................................... 14 3.3. 2016-2019 macroeconomic prospects ........................................................... 15 4. PUBLIC DEFICIT AND PUBLIC DEBT ............................................................................. 21 4.1. The Public Administrations in 2015 ...................................................................... 21 4.2. The General State Budget for 2016.................................................................... 30 4.3. 2016-2019 Fiscal strategy. Analysis of measures and budgetary impact ... 38 4.3.1. 2016-2019 Fiscal strategy ........................................................................... 38 4.3.2. Tax policy ..................................................................................................... 43 4.3.3. Labour Market and Social Security Measures ........................................ 50 4.3.4. Reform measures of the Public Administrations. CORA ........................ 54 4.4. The role of Regional Governments and Local Entities in the fiscal strategy60 4.4.1. Regional Governments .............................................................................. 60 4.4.1a Budget for 2016 ......................................................................................... 60 4.4.1b. Regional Governments Measures ......................................................... 62 4.4.2. Local Corporations ..................................................................................... 71 4.5. Public debt forecasts ......................................................................................... 74 4.6. Cyclical orientation of the fiscal policy ........................................................... 75 4.7. Adjustment path to the Medium-Term Objective (MTO) ............................. 80 5. COMPARISON WITH THE PREVIOUS STABILITY PROGRAMME. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................... 81 5.1. Comparison with the previous Stability Programme ..................................... 81 5.2. Risk scenarios and sensitivity analysis ............................................................... 82 5.2.1. Sensitivity to interest rates .......................................................................... 82 5.2.2. Sensitivity to economic growth of the trade partners ........................... 83 5.2.3. Oil price change ......................................................................................... 84 6. THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES ............................................................... 86 6.1. Long-term budgetary projections .................................................................... 86 6.2. Strategy ................................................................................................................ 88 -1- Stability Programme Update 2016-2019 6.3. Contingent liabilities ........................................................................................... 98 7. THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES ......................................................................... 101 7.1. Public spending quality: Dynamic Strategy of Public Administrations expenditure review............................................................................................. 103 7.1.1. State budget expenditure review .......................................................... 103 7.1.2. Expenditure Review in the Regional Governments budget ............... 104 7.2. Composition of revenue ............................................................................. 108 8. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK OF THE FISCAL POLICY ............................................ 111 -2- Stability Programme Update 2016-2019 TABLES INDEX Table 3.2.1. Basic assumptions of the Macroeconomic Scenario 2016-2019 ........... 14 Table 3.3.1. Macroeconomic prospects........................................................................ 15 Table 3.3.2. Labour Market developments ................................................................... 16 Table 3.3.3. Price developments..................................................................................... 17 Table 3.3.4. Sectorial balances ....................................................................................... 18 Table 4.1.1. Balance of the General Government in 2015 ......................................... 24 Table 4.1.2. The General Government in 2015 ............................................................. 25 Table 4.1.3. The Central Government in 2015 ............................................................... 26 Table 4.1.4. The Regional Governments in 2015 ........................................................... 27 Table 4.1.5. The Local Entities in 2015 ............................................................................. 28 Table 4.1.6. The Social Security Administrations in 2015............................................... 30 Table 4.2.1. The State Budget for 2016 ........................................................................... 32 Table 4.2.2. The State Tax Revenue budget in 2016 .................................................... 33 Table 4.2.3. Structure of the State Budget for 2016 ...................................................... 36 Table 4.2.4. The Social Security budget for 2016 .......................................................... 37 Table 4.3.1.1. Budgetary prospects ................................................................................ 41 Table 4.3.2.1. Tax bases of the main taxes in accrual terms ....................................... 44 Table 4.3.2.2. Revenue coming from fight against fiscal fraud .................................. 47 Table 4.4.1.1. 2016 Budget of the Regional Governments .......................................... 61 Table 4.5.1. Debt stock-flow adjustment in 2015 .......................................................... 75 Table 4.5.2. Public debt dynamics ................................................................................. 75 Table 4.6.1. Cyclical performance ................................................................................. 76 Table 4.6.2. Discretionary effort indicator ...................................................................... 78 Table 5.1.1. Differences with the previous Stability Programme update .................. 81 Table 5.2.1.1. Impact of a 100 b.p. increase of the interest rate ............................... 83 Table 5.2.2.1. Impact of a 4% fall in the export demand ............................................ 84 Table 5.2.3.1. Asumptions about the oil price (euros/barrel) ...................................... 84 Table 5.2.3.2. Effect of a 10% oil price increase ........................................................... 85 Table 6.1.1. 2013-60 Projections of ageing-related expenditure ............................... 87 Table 6.2.1. Summary of S2 indicator ............................................................................. 92 -3- Stability Programme Update 2016-2019 Table 6.3.1. Outstanding balance of General Government guarantees ................ 99 Table 7.1. Fiscal Adjustment 2011-2015. Subsector breakdown ............................... 101 -4- Stability Programme Update 2016-2019 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2016-2019 Stability Programme Update presents a prudent and realistic macroeconomic framework based on conservative assumptions. The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) supports macroeconomic projections in this Stability Programme, based on the exogenous assumptions on which it is built on and the associated fiscal paths. The Government acknowledges the recommendations received in relation to the purpose of the report. In line with the forecasts of the main national and international organisations, an average growth of approximately 2.5% is forecasted, and this will be significantly higher than that of the Eurozone and one of the highest among the advanced economies. This robust growth will be particularly intensive in job creation. In addition, over the coming years, there will be a sustained progress in the correction of the most important macroeconomic imbalances cumulated in the past. Structural reforms undertaken in recent years are decisively contributing to place the Spanish economy on the way for sustainable economic growth and job creation. At the same time, the reforms have allowed to leverage exogenous factors, such as the oil price reduction and the euro depreciation. In addition,
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