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Improving Airline Schedule Reliability Using a Strategic Multi-Objective Runway Slot Assignment Search Heuristic" (2008)

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Improving Airline Schedule Reliability Using a Strategic Multi-Objective Runway Slot Assignment Search Heuristic University of Central Florida STARS Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 2008 Improving Airline Schedule Reliability Using A Strategic Multi- objective Runway Slot Assignment Search Heuristic Florian Hafner University of Central Florida Part of the Industrial Engineering Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Doctoral Dissertation (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Hafner, Florian, "Improving Airline Schedule Reliability Using A Strategic Multi-objective Runway Slot Assignment Search Heuristic" (2008). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019. 3641. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/3641 IMPROVING AIRLINE SCHEDULE RELIABILITY USING A STRATEGIC MULTI- OBJECTIVE RUNWAY SLOT ASSIGNMENT SEARCH HEURISTIC by FLORIAN B. HAFNER B.S. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 1999 M.S. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 2002 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems in the College of Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2008 Major Advisors: Jose Sepulveda (Co-Chair) Luis Rabelo (Co-Chair) © 2008 Florian B. Hafner ii ABSTRACT Improving the predictability of airline schedules in the National Airspace System (NAS) has been a constant endeavor, particularly as system delays grow with ever-increasing demand. Airline schedules need to be resistant to perturbations in the system including Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and inclement weather. The strategic search heuristic proposed in this dissertation significantly improves airline schedule reliability by assigning airport departure and arrival slots to each flight in the schedule across a network of airports. This is performed using a multi-objective optimization approach that is primarily based on historical flight and taxi times but also includes certain airline, airport, and FAA priorities. The intent of this algorithm is to produce a more reliable, robust schedule that operates in today’s environment as well as tomorrow’s 4-Dimensional Trajectory Controlled system as described the FAA’s Next Generation ATM system (NextGen). This novel airline schedule optimization approach is implemented using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm which is capable of incorporating limited airport capacities. The core of the fitness function is an extensive database of historic operating times for flight and ground operations collected over a two year period based on ASDI and BTS data. Empirical distributions based on this data reflect the probability that flights encounter various flight and taxi times. The fitness function also adds the ability to define priorities for certain flights based on aircraft size, flight time, and airline usage. The algorithm is applied to airline schedules for two primary US airports: Chicago O’Hare and Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson. The effects of this multi-objective schedule iii optimization are evaluated in a variety of scenarios including periods of high, medium, and low demand. The schedules generated by the optimization algorithm were evaluated using a simple queuing simulation model implemented in AnyLogic. The scenarios were simulated in AnyLogic using two basic setups: (1) using modes of flight and taxi times that reflect highly predictable 4-Dimensional Trajectory Control operations and (2) using full distributions of flight and taxi times reflecting current day operations. The simulation analysis showed significant improvements in reliability as measured by the mean square difference (MSD) of filed versus simulated flight arrival and departure times. Arrivals showed the most consistent improvements of up to 80% in on-time performance (OTP). Departures showed reduced overall improvements, particularly when the optimization was performed without the consideration of airport capacity. The 4-Dimensional Trajectory Control environment more than doubled the on-time performance of departures over the current day, more chaotic scenarios. This research shows that airline schedule reliability can be significantly improved over a network of airports using historical flight and taxi time data. It also provides for a mechanism to prioritize flights based on various airline, airport, and ATC goals. The algorithm is shown to work in today’s environment as well as tomorrow’s NextGen 4-Dimensional Trajectory Control setup. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Firstly, I would like to thank Dr. Sepulveda and Dr. Rabelo for their continued guidance and advice throughout the course of this research effort. It is through their guidance that an original broad idea was shaped into a focused research project that became this dissertation. I would also like to thank Dr. Proctor and Dr. Reilly for dedicating their time to serve on this committee and provide valuable input into my research. Moreover, I would likely never have made it to this point in my life if not for Ken Fleming’s continuous support and mentoring throughout my entire professional career. It was his airport simulation and modeling class in 1997 that has shaped my life since. Finally, it would have been impossible to perform my research and write this dissertation without support from my friends, family, and loved ones. Mostly, I would like to thank my parents for their never-ending support in my endeavors. v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... xii LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................... xvi CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION................................................................................. 1 Statement of the Problem................................................................................................ 7 Research Objectives........................................................................................................ 9 Contribution .................................................................................................................. 13 Chapter Layout.............................................................................................................. 17 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW................................................................... 18 Airport Arrival and Departure Processes...................................................................... 18 Arrival and Departure Sequencing............................................................................ 19 Arrivals ................................................................................................................. 20 Departures............................................................................................................. 20 Arrival and Departure Management Tools ............................................................... 21 Airline Scheduling .................................................................................................... 23 Air Traffic Flow Management.................................................................................. 28 Collaborative Decision Making ................................................................................ 30 Airport Capacity........................................................................................................ 32 Airport Slot Control .................................................................................................. 36 Future Supporting ATM Concepts................................................................................ 38 4-Dimensional Air Traffic Management .................................................................. 39 Performance Based Operations................................................................................. 40 vi Required Navigational Performance......................................................................... 41 Recent Approaches to Schedule Optimization Problems ............................................. 44 Recent Optimization Approaches for Airport Operations ............................................ 50 Capacity Optimization .............................................................................................. 51 Ground Operations Optimization.............................................................................. 53 Schedule Optimization.............................................................................................. 55 Strategic versus Tactical Planning............................................................................ 58 Network Planning ..................................................................................................... 59 Relevance to Proposed Methodology ........................................................................... 61 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY ......................................................................... 62 Research Approach ....................................................................................................... 63 Overview of Optimization Process ............................................................................... 64 Capacity-Constrained
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