Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: 51029-001 May 2020

People’s Republic of China: Hubei Xiangyang Integrated Sustainable Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study

Prepared by: David Lupton & Associates Ltd.

For the Asian Development Bank and Xiangyang Municipal Transport Bureau

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents.

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

TRANSPORT PLAN

FINAL REPORT

May 2020

Prepared for: the Asian Development Bank and Xiangyang Municipal Transport Bureau

by: David Lupton & Associates Ltd.

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

CURRENCY EQUIVALENT (as of 12 May 2020) Currency unit: USD USD1=7.09 CNY

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES km2 – square kilometer m3 cubic meter mu: 15 mu=1 hectare

NOTE In this Report, “$” refers to US Dollars (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government and its agencies ends on 31 December. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2018 ends on 31 December 2018.

Consultants Quality Assurance Protocol Prepared By James P. Rizer/Consultant Team Leader

Auditor/Reviewer

Place Xiangyang Date May 2020

Approved By David Lupton, Principal

Note on Study Title

At the 17 January 2019 meeting between the client the XMTB, ADB and the consultant, the client requested that the title for the Project be changed to “Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study” in order to reflect the new Han River Economic Development Plan

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

ABBREVIATIONS AAGR Average Annual Growth Rate ADB Asian Development Bank ART Autonomous-Rail Rapid Transit BRT Bus Rapid Transit CNY Chinese New Yuan, or yuan CRC China Railways Corporation DLA David Lupton and Associates DRC Development and Reform Commission FTZ Free Trade Zone GDP Gross Domestic Product HS High Speed (railway) IA Implementing Agency IWT Inland Waterway Transport km kilometer LSP Logistics Service Provider NDRC National Development and Reform Commission O:D Origin: Destination PKM Passenger-kilometers PRC Peoples’ Republic of China PBN Plane-based Navigation RORO Roll-on/Roll-off TA Technical Assistance TOR Terms of Reference TKM Ton-kilometers XMG Xiangyang Municipal government or Xiangyang Prefecture XMTB Xiangyang Municipal Transport Bureau XY Xiangyang yr year

Transport Plan (2020) Page ii of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 4

A. This Report 4 B. Aims and Objectives 4 C. Hubei Province 5 D. Xiangyang 7 E. Han River Development 10

II. TRANSPORT ISSUES 13

A. National and Regional Trends 13 B. Transport in Xiangyang 18

III. ROAD TRANSPORT 22

A. The Highway Network 22 1. Current Network 22 2. Expressways under Construction 22 3. Proposed Further Development 23 4. Need for Planning Data 23 B. Urban Roads 24 1. Current Situation and Developments 24 2. The Implications of Doing Nothing 25 3. Preferred Road Pricing Approach 27 C. Road Freight 29 D. Pedestrians and Parking 32 1. Issues Facing Pedestrians 32 2. Parking Pricing 33 E. Two-Wheeled Travel 33

IV. RAIL, INLAND WATERWAY AND INTERMODAL 35

A. Railways 35 1. National and Regional Rail 35 2. Urban Rail 42 3. Light Rail and Subway 42 B. Waterways and Ports 42 C. Logistics 45

V. URBAN AND REGIONAL PASSENGER TRANSPORT 48

A. Introduction 48 B. Urban Bus Services 49

Transport Plan (2020) Page 1 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

1. Current Services 50 2. Bus Company Funding Arrangements 54 3. Harmonizing Service Levels with Funding Levels 56 4. Xiangyang Government Organisational Arrangements for Urban and Regional Public Transport 57 5. Need for Government to Act as Transport Co-Ordinator 60 6. Traffic Management (Improved Driver Behavior) 60 7. Proposed Demonstration Areas 61 C. Long Distance and Regional Bus Services 65 1. Regional Passenger Services 65 2. Policy Position 66 3. Current Operations 66 4. Current and Future Viability 67 5. Government Response and Mitigation Options 68 6. Proposed Form of Market Intervention 68 7. Social Equity and Government Expenditure Outcomes 70 D. Connector Service Strategy 70 1. Connector Passenger Transport Services 71 2. Proposed Short to Medium Term Connector Strategy 73 3. Key Nodes Served 73 4. Overview of Short to Medium Term Connector Corridors 74 5. Urban Rail Connector Services (Route CS 1) 75 6. Outer Ring Connector Services (Route CS 2) 78 7. Inner Ring Connector Services (Route CS 3) 79 8. Airport Connector Services (Routes CS 4 and CS 5) 79 E. Proposed Connector Modes 80 1. Mode for Urban Rail Services (Route CS 1) 80 2. Mode for the Outer Ring (Route CS 2) and the Inner Ring (Route CS 3) services 80 3. Mode for the Airport Connector Services (Routes CS 4 and CS 5) 84 4. Connector Service Priority Treatments 84 F. Bus Terminals and Transit Centre 85 1. Issue and Discussion 85 2. Possible Solution 86 3. A Transit-Oriented Development Complex 88 VI. THE TRANSPORT PLAN 89

A. Purpose 89 1. Thoughts 89 B. Actions and Activities 90 1. General/Overall 92 2. Roads 92 3. Urban 93 4. Railways 94 5. Ports 94 6. Aviation 95 7. Logistics 96 C. Summary: Transport Improvement Projects 97 D. Possible Projects for International Funding Institutions (IFI) 98 1. G 207 Bypass, (2020 funding). 98

Transport Plan (2020) Page 2 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

2. The Xiangyang - Yichang Expressway, 98 3. Develop Proposed Tang Bai Port. 98 4. Urban Rail Service 101 APPENDIX A: DESIGN AND MONITORING FRAMEWORK 102

APPENDIX B: ROAD SAFETY PLANNING 104

A. Traffic Accidents Overview 104 1 Introduction 104 2 Global Trends 104 3 China’s Successes 104 B. Road Safety Auditing from Planning to Operations 111 i. Introduction 111 ii. The Role of Auditing 112 iii. Road Safety Audits Objectives: Safer Roads 115 iv. Road Safety Audits: Developing the Tool 116 C. Traffic Safety Measures for Pedestrians and Non-Motorized Vehicles 117 v. Introduction 117 vi. Road Safety Audits 117 D. Traffic Safety Measures for Vehicles 120 vii. Introduction 120 viii. Road Safety Audit For Vehicles 120 E. Traffic Safety: Conclusions 125

APPENDIX C MODELING AND DATABASE DEVELOPMENT 126

A Introduction 126 B Brief Summary of Phone User Data 127 C Model for Xiangyang Prefecture 129 D Model for Xiangyang and Hubei Province 140 E Modeling for interchanges 144

APPENDIX D: XIANGYANG -YICHANG EXPRESSWAY PROJECT ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 3 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

I. INTRODUCTION

A. This Report

1. This report for TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Integrated Sustainable Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study - 01 (51029-001) has been prepared for the Asian Development Bank (ADB), by David Lupton & Associates Ltd, New Zealand (DLA). 2. The purpose of the Technical Assistance (TA) is to develop recommendations for the Xiangyang Municipality Transport Bureau (XMTB) with respect to the resources, systems and institutions needed to develop and manage the Xiangyang Municipal Government (XMG) transport network so that it serves the needs of the Prefecture. The process will draw upon existing planning documents and the experiences of the XMTB and other stakeholders in order to support the XMG’s preparation and implementation of strategic and sustainable transport and logistics plans. 3. The TA outcome will be the promotion of sustainable and integrated transport and logistics systems that can be implemented, monitored and revised as necessary in order to provide modern, green, efficient and livable areas within the Prefecture. Moreover, the XMG systems will be incorporated within the broader Hubei provincial and Chinese national policies, plans and networks. 4. This is the final report for the Transport Plan componient of the TA. It presents findings and recommendations on the development of a sustainable transport plan for Xiangyang. Separate reports have been produced in respect of the Logistics Improvement Plan and the capacity strengthening requirements.

B. Aims and Objectives

5. The terms of reference (TOR) for the TA imply that there is a need for the transport and logistics plans to provide additional transport capacity within Xiangyang by supplementing road improvements with public transport services for passengers and rail and waterway services for freight. There is an assumption that encouraging a switch from road transport using private vehicles will improve the transport system and environmental sustainability. Conserving resources is not the only objective. The objective is to also improve the quality of life, particularly for the transport-poor (the aged, women and children, people with disabilities). With this in mind, the policies and programs developed under the TA should maximize support to the inclusive economic development of the transport system, including infrastructure and environmental improvements. 6. With urban areas likely to drive economic growth through both rural and regional development, we recognize the importance of improved urban and environmental infrastructure and services in facilitating local economic growth. Nevertheless, public transport service improvements including urban railways and tramways are very expensive to build and operate and should only be introduced after thorough analysis. The Consultant worked with the stakeholders to help identify key economic and livelihood development prospects and to ensure as far as possible that their delivery is economically and environmentally sustainable. Possible approaches for public transport are discussed in Chapter III

Transport Plan (2020) Page 4 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

7. We interpret the idea of a “plan” to be more than a list of projects. Developing a plan involves setting objectives, outlining principles, determining strategies and developing policies that achieve the desired outcomes. In this document we analyse the issues, discuss potental solutions and propose actions that should be taken in the next few years. Beyond that the plan is only an indicative program. In later years it will be the policies and strategies that prevail, not the program that happened to look good in 2020.

C. Hubei Province

8. Hubei Province includes 13 prefectures and 4 directly administered county-level entities. The population totaled 61.56 million in 2016, of which 48% were registered as females and 52% males. About 56% live in urban areas and 44% in rural areas. Wuhan, the provincial capital is a vibrant major inland port on the Yangtze, and its greater urban area has a population exceeding 10 million. 9. The land area is 185,900 km2 and includes the mid reaches of the Yangtze River. The Jianghan Plain between the Yangtze and Han Rivers dominates the central and southern reaches of the province, with the peripheries more mountainous. The climate is relatively mild on the plain but there are times when temperatures are below freezing, and in the summer, 40C is not unknown. 10. Important agricultural products include rice, wheat, cotton, fish and aquaculture, and tea. Major industries include automobiles, metallurgy, machinery, power generation, textiles, foodstuffs and high-tech products such as optical-electronics, telecommunications equipment biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and laser-based equipment.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 5 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 1.1: Hubei Province and Administrative Divisions Source: chinadaily.com.cn

11. The 8th largest provincial (out of 31 contiguous provinces and municipalities) economy totaled 3,547.8 billion CNY in 2017, with primary industry accounting for 352.9 billion CNY, secondary industry 1,544.2 billion CNY, and tertiary industry 1,650.7 billion CNY. GDP per capita was 60,199 CNY, which places it roughly in the upper middle of China’s 31 administrative divisions (contiguous provinces and municipalities, including Hainan). 12. With its central location and key position on the Yangtze River, Hubei is a transport hub for road, water and rail. Total freight ton kilometers totaled 1651.3 billion in 2016. As shown in Figure 1.2 roads accounted for 74.3%, waterways 21.6% and rail 4.1%. 13. Passenger km totaled 1,058.1 billion with roads accounting for 83.4%, rail 15.0%, air 1.1% and waterways less than 0.1%.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 6 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Hubei Province

Figure 1.2: GDP per Capita Source Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics. 2018

14. While Hubei is a multimodal transport hub, the predominance of roads indicates that there is a definite preference for roads over other transport modes, primarily because of the overall efficiency of the road network—it tends to be faster and more reliable.

D. Xiangyang

15. Xiangyang (known as Xiangfan until 2 December 2010) is a prefecture-level city and consists of nine county-level divisions, including three districts, three county-level cities and three counties. The urban area of Xiangyang City is an incorporation of two once separate ancient cities, Fancheng and Xiangcheng District. 16. Its greater area covers 19,727 square kilometers and includes Baokang County, Gucheng County, Laohekou City, Nanzhang County, Yicheng City, and Zaoyang City; the built-up urban city center spans 190.3 square kilometers. As of 2017, greater Xiangyang has 5.65 million inhabitants, of which 1.45 million live in the city center; this number is forecast to grow to 1.7 million by 2020, and about 2.5 million by 2035. The Male:Female ratio is 1.05:1.00. In 2016, 39.95 million tourists visited the area, 12.5% more than in 2015. 17. A key issue is that a new city center is being developed about 18 km from the existing city center, and the overall urban area for the combined two city centers and various manufacturing and logistics areas will total 759 km2, or nearly 4 times larger than the currently designated area. Obviously, this raises considerable transport network issues. Government offices will begin shifting to the new city center in June-July 2019.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 7 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Road Waterways Rail

Figure 1.3: Freight by Mode in Hubei Source Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics. 2018

18. The GDP of Xiangyang totaled 370 billion CNY in 2016 and 61,189 CNY per capita. Whereas in 2010, primary industry accounted for 15%, secondary industry 52% and tertiary industry 33%, by 2016, primary industry accounted for only 12%, while secondary industry had increased to 55%, Tertiary was stable on 33%. The increasing trend in manufacturing and construction is likely to continue well into the next decade. As reported by the XMG Statistics Bureau, GDP increased 7.8% from 2017 to 2018. 19. Xiangyang possesses large water energy resources and mineral deposits including coal, iron, aluminum, gold, manganese, potassium nitrate and rock salt. Its reserves of rutile and ilmenite rank highly in China. Textile production is the mainstay industry followed by machinery manufacturing, chemical processing, electronics, and manufacturing of construction materials. Agricultural products include grain, cotton, vegetable oil crops, tobacco, tea and fruit. As the home of Dongfeng Motors (a leader in producing hybrid and E- -vehicles), Xiangyang is an automobile hub, producing Nissan and Infiniti brands for the domestic market. Electric vehicles are actively promoted but we are not aware of any direct subsidy. There are numbers of chemical fibre enterprises in the city. The city has invested in many industrial, technology and clean energy parks. 20. Although there have been marked increases in road traffic in recent years, it is likely that these will slow in the not so distant future because population growth rates are slowing and many individuals have already purchased vehicles. Increases in road passenger and

Transport Plan (2020) Page 8 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) freight traffic of 13% (5.4 billion passenger-km in 2017) and 9% (52.5 billion metric ton-km in 2016) per year respectively are placing significant strain on Xiangyang’s transport infrastructure and supporting systems, particularly the river crossings. The number of private vehicles grew at an average annual rate of 23% per year between 2013 and 2016. Road transport use in Xiangyang has been increasing at a much higher rate that population, which for the city itself was around 10% in 1990-2000 but fell to around 2% in 2000-2010. From 2013 to 2016 the number of private vehicles in Xiangyang grew by 87%, from 135,500 to 252,800, averaging 23% per year (data on comparable years were not available). These increases are placing significant strain on Xiangyang’s transport infrastructure and supporting systems. 21. Urban transport accounts for more than 30% of the city’s total emissions because of its reliance on road transportation and the use of old technology, especially older diesel buses and older smaller trucks.. Xiangyang’s 92 bus lines transport 550,000–600,000 passengers per day and cover the existing city center area, with the exception of Dongjin New Town. Although the public transport system has improved greatly in recent years, its availability in the outlying zones of the city is poor, and the vehicle fleets need to be modernized to reduce urban air pollution. The development of nonmotorized transport lanes, bus lanes, and urban rail systems is lagging that in other cities in the PRC. Moreover, the lack of grade-separated, signalized pedestrian facilities results in high pedestrian and vehicle interaction, interrupts the traffic flow on main roads, and endangers pedestrians. A new bus terminal owned by the Fanchan District will be opened in 2019 and will service and maintain buses running on electricity and areas west of the city. Many of the older buses have been converted to compressed natural gas (CNG). 22. Highway connectivity to the poorer southwest part of the city is particularly low, and the connection between downtown and the Xiangyang Liui Airport, 18 km northeast of the city, is inadequate. A new bus terminal is being opened at the end of 2019 that will improve transport options for the western areas. A new passenger terminal for 3 new high-speed rail lines is being constructed about 20 km in another direction. Although a light rail is being planned to connect the airport and the new high-speed rail terminal to the existing city center, it will require a population of at least 3 million for national approval. A new city centre, which will also be the Government Centre for Xiangyang, is being developed close to the new rail terminal. Connections to this centre are also needed urgently. With the new high-speed terminal set to open after the 2020 Spring Festival and some New City buildings already occupied, consideration needs to be given to alternative modes including bus rapid transit and express buses to connect the various demand centers in the near term. These may be replaced or augmented by light rail over the medium to long-term. 23. Water and air transport infrastructure is also inadequate to meet current and future demand. These capacity constraints have resulted in high transport costs, reducing the competitiveness of Xiangyang, while poor connectivity within the city has led to uneven economic development, particularly in the poor mountainous areas. Although the public transport system has improved greatly in recent years, usage is low (an estimated 20% of all passenger km) and there is only a low level of public transport available in the outlying zones of the prefecture. 24. Xiangyang is a railway junction for three main railway lines: Xiangyang-Chongqing, Hankou (Wuhan)-Danjiangkou, and Jiaozuo-Liuzhou (see Figure 2.1: and 2.6). CR High speed trains operate on the Hankou - Danjiangkou route providing connections to Shenzhen-

Transport Plan (2020) Page 9 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Beijing bullet trains at Wuhan. Three additional high-speed rail and a heavy haul dedicated coal line will transect the city by 2022. 2 other rail lines are being planned for later in the 2020- 2030 decade. 25. Three National Highways including Route 207 pass through the city. The Han River and four other rivers are open to commercial navigation year-round and connect with the Yangtze River system. Xiangyang Airport has commercial airline service to major cities throughout China including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. 26. The biggest challenge Xiangyang is facing is the heavy reliance on road-based transportation for both passengers and freight. This results in congestion, safety risks and air pollution. According to the XMTB, the transport modes split for freight is not rational, with 92% of tons by road, 1% by water and air, and only 7% by railwayThere is only one inland waterway port currently operating in Xiangyang, however the infrastructure is fragmented and outdated and as such water transportation is underutilized. A second port is under construction and a third is being planned. Redistribution of the modal split of freight transport has the potential to reduce logistics costs, fuel consumption, air emissions, congestion and road accidents

E. Han River Development

27. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the policy paper “Development Planning Han River Ecological Economic Belt” in November 2018. As a result, it has been proposed the title of this TA be changed to reflect the focus on comprehensive and integrated development outlined in the NDRC policy paper. The paper provides guidelines that emphasize the need to pursue developments that reduce pollution and strengthen the environment. The paper also articulates that all communities must benefit from development— that successful development means that both urban and rural residents have to share benefits. 28. A prominent basis for the paper is to foster inclusion, coordination and cooperation with the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the Silk Road Economic Belt initiatives that are national priorities. 29. Spatially, the paper presents two zones for development: the Danjiangkou reservoir area and its upstream areas will place a priority on ecologically sound and “green” development; and “the middle-lower reaches of Han River actively carry out ecological restoration and construction, vigorously develop Eco-agriculture with high efficiency, advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, accelerate industrial and population agglomeration, strengthen linkage with Danjiangkou reservoir area and upstream areas, and enhance the overall development level of Han River basin.” 30. The paper presents four transport axes through Xiangyang, as channels for development: the Han River itself with Wuhan serving as a state-level central city and Xiangyang as a regional -level central city; the Wuhan-Xi’an high-speed railway; the Shanghai- Shaanxi Expressway; and the Erlianhot-Guangzhou Expressway. Each of the initiatives has unique advantages for economic development and should be pursued appropriately. Figure 1.4 highlights the axes and indicates the central role that Xiangyang will play in the Han River’s transformation. 31. The paper specifically identifies key guiding principles for transportation and improving the overall network. These include:

Transport Plan (2020) Page 10 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

The axis of development along Wuha-Xi’an high-speed railway

The axis of development along Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway

Shangluo

Hanzhong Nanyang Ankang Shiyan Dengzhou

Xiangyang The axis of development along Han River Shennongjia Forest Area

Suizhou Jingmeng Xiaogan Danjiangkreservoir area & upstream area Tianmeng Wuhan Middle-lower reaches of Han River Qianjiang Xiantao The axis of development along Erlianhot-Guangzhou Expressway

Source: National Development and Reform Commission. “Development Planning Han River Ecological Economic Belt.” Beijing. November 2018. Figure 1. 4: Diagram of Spatial Development Pattern for Han River Ecological Economic Belt

 Ships: strictly enforce discharge and pollution control, utilize energy-saving and energy efficient ships and retire older ones, and improve pollution response measures;  Ports: speed up construction of Han River ports and improve navigation capacity through remedial actions and dredging;  Railways and Highways: speed up construction and increase inter-Provincial connectivity;  Aviation: accelerate expansion and upgrade of airports, increase flights and connections;  Logistics: strengthen linkages between node cities including the leading role of Wuhan in the region, and “Vigorously develop cold chain logistics, actively develop public warehousing, intercity logistics, postal services, courier services, joint distribution and third-party logistics, and improve the allocation of urban logistics transfer & distribution stations and community distribution points;” and  Free Trade Zones (FTZ): Xiangyang is specifically mentioned to construct the FTZ and to accelerate development of a “single window” for international trade. This would require significant upgrading of inland port / rail yards with bonded areas and bonded container transport to sea port. 32. The paper then addresses specific sectors and industries, calling for development of these industries in a manner that is ecologically sensitive to protecting the overall environment and providing for improved quality of life for residents. The paper also stresses the need for

Transport Plan (2020) Page 11 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Xiangyang to develop as a key central city that improves transportation linkages with other areas and becomes a driving force for broader regional development.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 12 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

II. TRANSPORT ISSUES

A. National and Regional Trends

33. With the world’s second largest economy and second largest contiguous geographical area, China’s transport network has played a major role in its unparalleled economic growth and diversification, rural to urban migration and poverty reduction. Xiangyang is soon to become one of the key hubs in China’s transformation. 34. As shown in Table 2.1 (for passengers) and Table 2.2 (for freight) there are important national trends. While population growth has become quite gradual and in future years may even decline, the economy has experienced a prolonged period of strong growth. Total passenger trips by road1 and rail have experienced steady long-term growth. Passenger trips by waterway have declined as more people are choosing faster other modes. This includes the marked increase in civil aviation passenger trips, while for rail passenger traffic, the implementation of the high-speed network has led to a marked increase in passengers. However, the road passenger share continues to dominate. 35. For freight, total tons per kilometer and total tons in Xiangyang have been increasing at rates similar to the national economy, 7.6% per year and 6.0% respectively from 1992-2017. On the other hand, rail tons and ton-km have shown a decline in recent years as rail has lost market shares to road transport. The high ton-km share but low tonnage share for waterways is because the traffic figures include coastal and ocean shipping in addition to inland waterways, thus, the average distance by wateways is 3,450 km, which is well above that for rail and road.

1 The reason for the apparent decline in road passenger traffic in 2013 is because the definition of road transport shifted to only inter-city traffic and removed near-city urban and peri-urban traffic.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 13 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Table 2.1: China Passengers by Mode, 1985-2017 人均GDP （ 民航份 中华人民共和 中铁份 GDP （当前十 当前人民币 中铁乘客（百 公路份额 水路份额（ 民航（百万 额（%） 国旅客（百万 额（%） 公路（百万 水路（百万 中华人民共和 人口（百万）Po 亿元人民币）G ）GDP per 万）CR （%）Hig %）Waterw ）Civil Civil 年份Year ）PRC CR ）Highway ）Waterwa 国旅行/人员PR pulation (Million) DP (current Capita Passengers hways ays Share Aviation Aviation Passengers Share s (Million) ys (Million) C Trips/Person Billion CNY) (current (Million) Share (%) (%) (Millions) Share (Million) (%) CNY) (%) 1985 1,058.51 912.36 861.93 6,202.06 1,109.13 17.88 4,764. 86 76.83 308.63 4.98 7.47 0.12 5.86 1986 1,075.07 1,027.54 955.79 6,882.12 1,073.58 15.60 5,44 2.59 79.08 343.77 5.00 9.97 0.14 6.40 1987 1,093.00 1,215.66 1,112.22 7,464.22 1,114.14 14.93 5, 936.82 79.54 389.51 5.22 13.10 0.18 6.83 1988 1,110.26 1,517.44 1,366.74 8,095.92 1,215.95 15.02 6, 504.73 80.35 350.32 4.33 14.42 0.18 7.29 1989 1,127.04 1,718.84 1,525.09 7,913.76 1,127.98 14.25 6, 445.08 81.44 317.78 4.02 12.83 0.16 7.02 1990 1,143.33 1,892.33 1,655.10 7,726.82 948.88 12.28 6,48 0.05 83.86 272.25 3.52 16.60 0.21 6.76 1991 1,158.23 2,205.03 1,903.79 8,060.48 942.08 11.69 6,82 6.81 84.69 261.09 3.24 21.76 0.27 6.96 1992 1,171.71 2,720.82 2,322.09 8,608.55 987.88 11.48 7,31 7.74 85.01 265.02 3.08 28.86 0.34 7.35 1993 1,185.17 3,559.92 3,003.72 9,966.34 1,045.80 10.49 8, 607.91 86.37 270.74 2.72 33.83 0.34 8.41 1994 1,198.50 4,854.82 4,050.75 10,928.81 1,080.09 9.88 9, 539.40 87.29 261.65 2.39 40.39 0.37 9.12 1995 1,211.21 6,035.66 4,983.17 11,725.96 1,020.81 8.71 10 ,408.10 88.76 239.34 2.04 51.17 0.44 9.68 1996 1,223.89 7,077.96 5,783.17 12,453.56 935.50 7.51 11,2 21.10 90.10 228.95 1.84 55.55 0.45 10.18 1997 1,236.26 7,880.29 6,374.30 13,260.94 919.19 6.93 12,0 45.83 90.84 225.73 1.70 56.30 0.42 10.73 1998 1,247.61 8,381.76 6,718.25 13,787.17 929.91 6.74 12,5 73.32 91.20 205.45 1.49 57.55 0.42 11.05 1999 1,257.86 8,936.65 7,104.65 13,944.13 977.25 7.01 12,6 90.04 91.01 191.51 1.37 60.94 0.44 11.09 2000 1,267.43 9,906.61 7,816.30 14,785.73 1,018.47 6.89 13 ,473.92 91.13 193.86 1.31 67.72 0.46 11.67 2001 1,276.27 10,927.62 8,562.15 15,341.22 1,016.80 6.63 1 4,027.98 91.44 186.45 1.22 75.24 0.49 12.02 2002 1,284.53 12,048.04 9,379.34 16,081.50 1,017.41 6.33 1 4,752.57 91.74 186.93 1.16 85.94 0.53 12.52 2003 1,292.27 13,675.63 10,582.64 15,874.97 936.34 5.90 14 ,643.35 92.24 171.42 1.08 87.59 0.55 12.28 2004 1,299.88 16,141.54 12,417.72 17,674.53 1,073.00 6.07 16,245.26 91.91 190.40 1.08 121.23 0.69 13.60 2005 1,307.56 18,599.89 14,224.88 18,470.18 1,106.51 5.99 16,973.81 91.90 203.27 1.10 138.27 0.75 14.13 2006 1,314.48 21,902.85 16,662.75 20,241.58 1,197.28 5.91 18,604.37 91.91 220.47 1.09 159.68 0.79 15.40 2007 1,321.29 27,084.40 20,498.45 22,277.61 1,287.12 5.78 20,506.80 92.05 228.05 1.02 185.76 0.83 16.86 2008 1,328.02 32,150.05 24,209.01 28,678.92 1,444.52 5.04 26,821.14 93.52 203.34 0.71 192.51 0.67 21.60 2009 1,334.74 34,849.85 26,109.84 29,768.98 1,507.98 5.07 27,790.81 93.35 223.14 0.75 230.52 0.77 22.30 2010 1,340.91 41,126.52 30,670.60 32,695.08 1,647.61 5.04 30,527.38 93.37 223.92 0.68 267.69 0.82 24.38 2011 1,347.35 48,475.32 35,978.27 35,263.19 1,826.26 5.18 32,862.20 93.19 245.56 0.70 293.17 0.83 26.17 2012 1,354.04 53,911.65 39,815.40 38,040.35 1,893.37 4.98 35,570.10 93.51 257.32 0.68 319.36 0.84 28.09 2013 1,360.72 59,042.24 43,390.44 21,229.92 2,105.97 9.92 18,534.63 87.30 235.35 1.11 353.97 1.67 15.60 2014 1,367.82 64,479.11 47,140.05 22,093.91 2,357.04 10.6 7 17,362.70 78.59 262.93 1.19 391.95 1.77 16.15 2015 1,374.62 68,644.95 49,937.40 19,437.71 2,534.84 13.0 4 16,190.97 83.30 270.72 1.39 436.18 2.24 14.14 2016 1,382.71 74,059.87 53,561.39 19,001.54 2,814.05 14.8 1 15,427.59 81.19 272.34 1.43 487.96 2.57 13.74 2017 1,390.08 82,484.28 59,337.80 18,485.20 3,083.78 16.6 8 14,567.84 78.81 283.00 1.53 551.56 2.98 13.30 年均 增长 率（1985- 2017 ）Average Annual 0.9% 15.1% 14.1% 3.5% 3.2% -0.2% 3.6% 0.1% -0.3% -3.6% 14.4% 1 0.6% 2.6% Growth Rate (1985- 2017) 2017 年 乘客 平均 行驶 距 离 （公里 ）2017 Average Distance 177 436 NA 67 NA 26 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Traveled by Passenger (km) (1) 2013 年，由于公布公路乘客统计数据的出版商因未披露原因而下调，中国乘客人数大幅减少。 PRC passengers decreased significantly in 2013 due to downward adjustment by the publisher of highway passenger statistics due to undisclosed reasons. NA = 不 适 用NA=Not 。 Applicable.

资料来源：中国统计出版社， 2018 年及前几年的《中国统计年鉴》：中国国家统计局，北京。 Source : China Statistical Press, China Statistical Yearbook 2018 and earlier years; National Bureau of Statistics of China, Beijing.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 14 of 154

TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Table 2.2: China Freight by Mode

） ） ） Total Rail 亿 亿 Rail Highwa Waterw ） ） 十 ） 十 Rail Higway Waterway 万 ） ） ） ） Highway Highway （ 亿 （ TKM TKM Rail TKM TKM 百 万 吨 万 吨 万 吨 ） 十 ） 额 额 额 （ 百 额 百 额 百 额 （ 亿 TKM TKM 份 份 份 数 （ 份 （ 份 （ 份 十 量 场 场 运 场 吨 数 场 数 场 数 场

（ TKM Year 总 市 市 货 市 总 吨 市 吨 市 吨 市 份 运 路 路 路 路 路 路 运 路 路 路 路 路 路 TKM Total Total Freight TKM(billion) TKM(billion) Market Tons Share Market Tons Share Market Tons Share Freight Tons Freight(Million Tons Market TKM Share MarketHighway Share TKM Waterway Market Share TKM waterway Freight TKM(billion) Tons (MillionTons y (Million Tons ay (Million Tons TKM(billion) 年 货 铁 铁 公 公 水 水 货 铁 铁 公 公 水 水 1992 2,921.80 1,157.60 39.60% 375.50 12.85% 1,325.60 45.40% 10,458.99 1,576.27 15.10% 7,809.41 74.70% 924.9 8.80% 1993 3,064.70 1,209.10 39.50% 407.10 13.28% 1,386.10 45.20% 11,159.02 1,627.94 14.60% 8,402.56 75.30% 979.38 8.80% 1994 3,343.50 1,263.20 37.80% 448.60 13.42% 1,568.70 46.90% 11,803.96 1,632.16 13.80% 8,949.14 75.80% 1,070.91 9.10% 1995 3,590.90 1,305.00 36.30% 469.50 13.07% 1,755.20 48.90% 12,349.38 1,659.82 13.40% 9,403.87 76.10% 1,131.94 9.20% 1996 3,659.00 1,310.60 35.80% 501.10 13.69% 1,786.30 48.80% 12,984.21 1,710.24 13.20% 9,838.60 75.80% 1,274.30 9.80% 1997 3,838.50 1,327.00 34.60% 527.20 13.73% 1,923.50 50.10% 12,782.18 1,721.49 13.50% 9,765.36 76.40% 1,134.06 8.90% 1998 3,808.90 1,256.00 33.00% 548.30 14.40% 1,940.60 50.90% 12,674.27 1,643.09 13.00% 9,760.04 77.00% 1,095.55 8.60% 1999 4,056.80 1,291.00 31.80% 572.40 14.11% 2,126.30 52.40% 12,930.08 1,675.54 13.00% 9,904.44 76.60% 1,146.08 8.90% 2000 4,432.10 1,377.10 31.10% 612.90 13.83% 2,373.40 53.60% 13,586.82 1,785.81 13.10% 10,388.13 76.50% 1,223.91 9.00% 2001 4,771.00 1,469.40 30.80% 633.00 13.27% 2,598.90 54.50% 14,017.86 1,931.89 13.80% 10,563.12 75.40% 1,326.75 9.50% 2002 5,068.60 1,565.80 30.90% 678.30 13.38% 2,751.10 54.30% 14,834.47 2,049.56 13.80% 11,163.24 75.30% 1,418.32 9.60% 2003 5,385.90 1,724.70 32.00% 710.00 13.18% 2,871.60 53.30% 15,644.92 2,242.48 14.30% 11,599.57 74.10% 1,580.70 10.10% 2004 6,944.50 1,928.90 27.80% 784.10 11.29% 4,142.90 59.70% 17,064.12 2,490.17 14.60% 12,449.90 73.00% 1,873.94 11.00% 2005 8,025.80 2,072.60 25.80% 869.30 10.83% 4,967.20 61.90% 18,620.66 2,692.96 14.50% 13,417.78 72.10% 2,196.48 11.80% 2006 8,884.00 2,195.40 24.70% 975.40 10.98% 5,548.60 62.50% 20,370.60 2,882.24 14.10% 14,663.47 72.00% 2,487.03 12.20% 2007 10,141.90 2,379.90 23.50% 1,135.50 11.20% 6,428.50 63.40% 22,758.22 3,142.37 13.80% 16,394.32 72.00% 2,811.99 12.40% 2008 11,030.10 2,510.60 22.80% 3,286.80 29.80% 5,026.30 45.60% 25,874.13 3,303.54 12.80% 19,167.59 74.10% 2,945.10 11.40% 2009 12,213.30 2,523.90 20.70% 3,718.90 30.45% 5,755.70 47.10% 28,252.22 3,333.48 11.80% 21,278.34 75.30% 3,189.96 11.30% 2010 14,183.70 2,764.40 19.50% 4,338.90 30.59% 6,842.70 48.20% 32,418.07 3,642.71 11.20% 24,480.52 75.50% 3,789.49 11.70% 2011 15,932.40 2,946.60 18.50% 5,137.50 32.25% 7,542.40 47.30% 36,969.60 3,932.63 10.60% 28,202.00 76.30% 4,259.68 11.50% 2012 17,377.10 2,918.70 16.80% 5,953.50 34.26% 8,170.80 47.00% 40,994.00 3,904.38 9.50% 31,884.75 77.80% 4,587.05 11.20% 2013 16,801.40 2,917.40 17.40% 5,573.80 33.17% 7,943.60 47.30% 40,989.00 3,966.97 9.70% 30,766.48 75.10% 5,597.85 13.70% 2014 18,539.80 2,753.00 14.85% 6,101.70 32.91% 9,277.50 50.00% 43,810.89 3,813.34 8.70% 33,328.38 76.10% 5,982.83 13.70% 2015 17,835.60 2,375.54 13.32% 5,795.57 32.49% 9,177.35 51.46% 41,755.86 3,358.01 8.04% 31,005.19 74.25% 6,135.67 14.69% 2016 18,662.90 2,379.23 12.75% 6,108.01 32.73% 9,738.88 52.18% 43,867.63 3,331.86 7.60% 33,412.59 76.17% 6,382.28 14.55% 2017 19,737.30 2,696.22 13.66% 6,677.15 33.83% 9,861.12 49.96% 48,048.50 3,688.55 7.68% 36,868.58 76.73% 6,687.46 13.92%

年均增长率（19 92- 7.6% 3.3% -4.0% 11.7% 3.8% 8.0% 0.4% 6.0% 3.3% -2.6% 6.2% 0.1% 7.9% 1.8% 2017）Aerage Annual Growth Rate (1992-2017) 2017年每吨平均 运距（公里） 2017 Average 411 731 NA 181 NA 3,450 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Distance Traveled by Ton (km) NA =不适用。 NA=Not Applicable. 注释：水路可能是海运，包括沿海航运。Note; waterways may ocean and include coastal shipping.. 资料来源：中国统计出版社，2018年及前几年的《中国统计年鉴》：中国国家统计局，北京。Source: China Statistical Press, China Statistical Yearbook 2018 and earlier years; National Bureau of Statistics of China, Beijing.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 15 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

36. There have been massive investments in transport infrastructure over the last several decades as shown in Table 2.3. Faster travel has been the objective of investment with electrified railways, expressways, and aviation all showing dramatic long-term increases. Pipelines have also been increasing at high long-term rates. Navigable inland waterways have received less investment than the other modes and this is also the case in Xiangyang, where only one port is operating and it is outdated. However, more investments are now going into inland waterways with scheduled investments now in place (e.g, a new port is under construction and another is planned). As another example, Wuhan opened a new container port during the last two years, and it is already handling well over 1,000,000 TEUs per year. Table 2.3: China’s Total Route Length by Mode (000 km)

民航常规航 可通航的内陆水 线 石油和天然气管 电气化铁路 国际航线 铁路 高速公路 道 Navigable Regular 道 Petroleum 年份Year Electrified 公路Highways Internaitional Railways Expressways Inland Civil and Gas Railways Routes Waterways Aviation Pipelines Routes

1980 53.3 1.0 890.2 0.0 108.5 195.8 91.2 8.3 1985 55.2 4.0 942.4 0.0 109.1 277.2 106.0 11.7 1990 57.9 6.9 1,023.0 0.5 109.1 506.8 166.4 15.1 1995 62.4 9.7 1,157.0 2.1 110.6 1,129.0 348.2 17.2 2000 66.7 14.9 1,679.8 16.3 119.3 1,502.9 508.4 24.7 2005 75.4 19.4 3,345.0 241.0 123.3 1,998.5 855.9 44.0 2010 91.2 32.7 4,008.2 74.1 124.2 2,765.1 1,070.2 78.5 2015 121.0 74.7 4,577.3 123.5 127.0 5,317.2 2,384.4 108.7 2016 124.0 80.3 4,696.3 131.0 127.1 6,348.1 2,828.0 113.4 2017 127.0 86.6 4,773.5 136.4 127.0 7,483.0 3,245.9 119.3 AAGR 1980- 2.4% 12.8% 4.6% 23.1% 0.4% 10.3% 10.1% 7.5% 2017 Hubei 42.2 56.5 269.5 259.6 8.4 259.9 NA NA 20173 Xiangyang 0.9 0.9 2.8 0.6 0.4 NA NA NA 2016

资料来源：中国统计出版社，2018年及前几年的《中国统计年鉴》：中国国家统计局，北京。Source: China Statistical Press, China Statistical Yearbook 2018 and earlier years; National Bureau of Statistics of China, Beijing. NA=无。NA=not available. 注释1：高速公路年均增⻓率计算时间为1990-2017。 Note: 1. Expressways AAGR is calculated from 1990-2017. 注释2：AAGR是年均增⻓率。 Note: 2. AAGR is average annual growth rate. 注释3：湖北高速公路总和包括四级公路。Note: 3. Hubei total for Expressways includes Class IV roads. 注释4：襄阳铁路包2019年运营的330公里和2020年将开始运营的570公里。Note 4: Xiangyang railways include 330 km in operation in 2019 and 570 km that will begin operating in 2020. 注释5：襄阳公路包括807.8公里的国道和2,037.3公里的省道。Note 5: Xiangyang highways include 807.8 km of national highways and 2,037.3 km of Provincial roads. 注释6：襄阳水道⻓度是到武汉的近似距离。Note 6: Xiangyang waterways length is the approximate distance to Wuhan.

37. High investment levels are anticipated to continue over the next several years. As shown in Figures 2.1 (China Railway Network in 2030) and 2.5 (High-speed Railway Network in 2030), emphasis on faster and broader national coverage for the railway network will continue as key criteria.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 16 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 2.1: China Railway Network in 2030 Source: China Railway Corporation (until 2013, Ministry of Railways). 2016

Figure 2.2: High-speed Rail Network in 2030 Source: China Railway Corporation (until 2013, Ministry of Railways). 2016

Transport Plan (2020) Page 17 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

B. Transport in Xiangyang

38. Figure 2.3 shows Xiangyang’s overall transport network. The red and yellow lines indicate national expressways or highways and show north-south and east-west directions are served. These routes connect to similar expressways and highways in neighboring areas. The green lines indicate Provincial highways. Collectively, the road network has a solid base and it is being expanded. 39. Figure 2.4 shows the existing and new urban areas’ transport links. As with the Prefecture as a whole, there are good connections to neighboring areas. 40. Figure 2.5 shows the Xiangyang’s Municipal Transport Bureau’s organization and associated agencies. Note that on 31 January 2019, an announcement was made that Civil Aviation will be shifted to the Transport Bureau and Tourism will move to the Cultural Affairs Bureau. The Cultural Affairs Bureau are nevertheless a key stakeholder in the future of the airport, because improving transport will be key to making sure Xiangyang is an attractive tourism destination – particularly improvements to the airport which currently loses passengers to Wuhan The airport runways has been extended from 2,400 meters to 2,600 meters and plans are in place to upgrade the radar and navigation systems in order to enable service to operate in low-visibility. Cancellation of services due to low visibiiluty being one reason for the low use of the airport.

Figure 2.3: Xiangyang Transport Network Source: Xiangyang Municipal Transport Bureau. November 2018.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 18 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 2.4: Xiangyang Urban Area Transport Network Source: Xiangyang Urban Transport Project. World Bank. 2015

41. Table 2.4 shows Xiangyang’s road transport for freight and passengers for 2005-2017. While the decline in number in 2013 passengers and pkms is due to changes in record-keeping (only inter-city movements were included from then onwards), the dramatic increases in freight tkms are difficult to explain, although again, the statistical record-keeping was likely a cause. While these factors may make it difficult to draw conclusions, the point is that there has been growth in road transport. Table 2.4: Xiangyang Road Traffic (million units)

年份 旅客 旅客公里 吨公里 Year Passengers Passenger km 吨 Tons Ton km 2005 77.81 3,172.75 52.59 4,022.32 2006 82.45 3,365.07 55.29 4,211.19 2007 88.27 3,594.09 59.49 4,512.03 2008 85.75 4,283.78 62.77 4,783.75 2009 92.50 4,624.39 73.11 9,673.12 2010 101.28 5,151.33 87.03 11,729.25 2011 117.43 6,197.16 96.72 14,976.07 2012 139.63 7,741.80 130.03 18,815.80 2013 86.15 3,868.86 150.33 22,192.29 2014 96.02 4,756.86 248.42 48,319.17 2015 108.63 5,247.97 239.93 50,735.82 2016 109.74 5,298.30 253.35 50,483.44 2017 106.39 5,138.99 337.00 61,881.76 资料来源：襄阳市统计局。 2017年和2018年。Source: Xiangyang Bureau of Statistics. 2017 and 2018.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 19 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 2.5 Organization Chart for Xiangyang Municipal Transport Bureau Source: TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001), Inception Report,

42. In Xiangyang in 2016, there were 354 transport-related accidents and 320 deaths, in 2015 there were 116 accidents and 98 deaths. In 2016 there were 163 transport-related injuries at a total cost of 29.82 million CNY, and in 2015 there were 80 transport-related injuries at a cost of 5.74 million CNY. Road safety has been given a higher national priority over the past decade. Road safety has been given a higher national priority over the past decade. (Source: Xiangyang Statistical Yearbook for 2017, Table 13-9). 43. Further attention needs to be given to road safety with respect to enforcement of existing laws such as wearing seatbelts but also to safety for non-motorized transport and pedestrians. Road safety audits are evolving in China and are especially important in rural areas where there are many different transport modes on narrow lanes with possible visual limitations. Road safety issues incuding road safety audits are presented in Appendix B: Road Safety Planning. 44. The road and railway networks connecting Xiangyang internally as well to external regions are in the process of being significantly upgraded to where they will meet foreseeable demand and enable improved travel/transport times, costs, and the basis for medium to long- term economic evolution for a sustainable greener industrial sector, a more efficient agricultural (or primary) sector, and a growing and dynamic services (tertiary) sector. Inland waterways and associated ports and aviation are positioned and planned to assume increasing roles in the development of Xiangyang as a key transportation and a complementary commercial hub. Xiangyang is at the center of economic growth for the Han River belt, and it will become even more important in future years. 45. While the infrastructure in place and planned provide a solid basis for sustainable Han River development, there are issues that need to be strengthened for Xiangyang to facilitate the evolution of the Han River region. Specifically, capacities have to be enhanced with respect to data generation and analysis, forecasting, and most importantly integration of

Transport Plan (2020) Page 20 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) various modes. A better understanding of transport cost factors in Xiangyang and potentially competing regions is essential to realizing more competitive producers and economic growth. 46. Xiangyang has experienced very positive development results including economic growth in recent years. For these to continue and increase the efficiency of operations in the Prefecture, more attention has to be given to integrating not only transport modes to become more functionally multimodal, but also to integrating thinking—the ideas and concepts—that will provide the basis for a comprehensive multimodal hub. 47. This sounds good “on paper” but it is far more difficult to actually implement with positive results. Much more needs to be done on developing and/or utilizing information platforms. A higher priority needs to be given to collective dialogue and implementation. 48. Globally, this is a weakness—private operators don’t want to share their market information, public sector agencies want to protect their “turf,” and special interest groups (e.g., environmentalists, preservationists, etc.) want to have an impactful role that is often at odds with the other participants. 49. However, to meet the stated goals and targets, all parties have to be “on the same page,” with some common understanding of what needs to be done and why. 50. The transport network in Xiangyang is in relatively good condition. Connecting (within and external to the prefecture) and urban roads are being maintained, rail lines are in good condition, waterways are being upgraded, and the air network is expanding. While there is a solid infrastructure basis for growth and development, there are also issues and challenges that require attention. The XMTB has competent skilled staff that are more than capable of identifying and addressing the issues. 51. The new ports will provide a viable alternative to roads for freight based on tariffs and the ability to track cargoes. Increasing the role of rail freight traffic remains problematic based on CRC’s performance over the years as it has not fully developed a customer-friendly basis to handle shipments especially handling containers. Instead CRC has focused on traditional bulk cargoes such as coal, fertilizers, iron and steel, grains, cement, ores, and bulk building materials. The national government’s policy to promote the use of rail and shift from road transport will undoubtedly have some effect but it will take time to develop customer confidence in switching from the reliable road trucking industry even if it is the most expensive transport mode. 52. For passengers, the new high-speed lines and terminal will enable improved and faster access to a number of locations. Similarly, the aviation upgrades will facilitate increased and ease of air travel. The bus network is expanding in urban as well as rural areas. 53. Collectively current and planned initiatives for the transport and logistics networks are positive steps that Xiangyang is implementing. The following chapters hightlight the infrastructure and operaional issues for each mode.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 21 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

III. ROAD TRANSPORT

A. The Highway Network

1. Current Network

54. The national expressways provide the key link to the national road network. Provincial roads provide connections within Xiangyang and to neighboring areas.

55. The length of the road network in Xiangyang totaled 30,215 in operation in 2018 including highways, national, county, town and rural roads. Of this, expressways comprised 599 km and national highways totaled 807.3 km. the expressways include:  Fuzhou-Yinchuan (east-west) Expressway at 168 km;  Erlian-Guangzhou (north-south) Expressway at 104 km;  Gucheng-Zhu (east-west) Expressway at 64 km;  East Ring Road of Xiangyang Expressway at 16 km;  Baoyi Expressway at 74 km;  Mazhu (east-west) Expressway in eastern Xiangyang at 59 km; and  Mazhu Expressway in western Xiangyang at 114 km. 56. The national highways include:  G241 Hubei (east-west) highway, passing through Tuguan, Shihua, Zijin, Guoduwan, Paifangwan, Houping, Baiguoshuping, Maliang and Dianya;  G207 Xihai (east-west) highway, passing Wei Ji, Huang Ji, Huo Pai, Tuan Shan, San Qiao, Wang Shugang, Xiao He, Zhou Gang, Tao Yuan;  G234 Xingyang (east-west) highway, passing Sizhuang, Taiping, Yuanzhuang, Ligang, Wudian, Tangdian, Qingtan;  G316 Fulan (north-south) highway, passing Suiyangdian, Zaoyang, Qifang, Shuanggou, Laohekou Interchange, Gucheng Interchange, Shihua, Tuguanya;  G346 Shangan (north-south) highway, passing Xinji, Banqiao, Nanying street office, Yicheng North Interchange, Wu'an, Nanzhan Chengguan, Changping, Huangpu, Paifangwan, Guoduwan Town, Siping, Langkou;  G328 Qilao highway, passing Menglou, Lanmahe, Xianrendu; and  G347 Nande highway, passing Shaziling, Tongmuji and Zengjiagang. 57. Provincial roads account for 2,037.3 km and there are 10 north-south roads, 9 east- west roads, and 9 interconnecting roads.

2. Expressways under Construction

58. The road network is expanding to accommodate increasing traffic and provide the necessary basis for growth and development. There are five expressways under construction and two new expressway extensions are planned for the 2020-2025 period: one to the north

Transport Plan (2020) Page 22 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) into Hunan and one to the south to connect with the Chongqing-Shanghai expressway. A fourth bridge over the Han River will be completed in 2020 and the elevated East-West expressway across the center of the city will be completed in 2022. Other expressways are:  a 32 km expressway as part of the South Ring Road for the existing city center;  a 39 km expressway from Laohekou to Gucheng;  a 37 km expressway from Gucheng to Shennongjia;  a 61 km expressway from Zaoyang to Qianjiang (the southern section);  a 48 km Zaoyang-Qianjiang expressway (the northern section); and  construction of a 17 km expressway from Xiangyang to Nanzhang will begin in the near future..

3. Proposed Further Development

59. There are two major projects proposed to further develop the network  G 207 Bypass, (2020 funding). This is one of the most important recommended projects because it would greatly reduce congestion in Xiangyang and force heavy trucks to use a new and strengthened bridge. The cost for this 94 km (largely 6- lane) highway including bridges is expensive—an estimated 7 billion CNY. However, it will be built to handle heavy trucks and will greatly reduce congestion in and around Xiangyang. A feasibility study in Chinese is available and indicates economic viability. This is a priority project.  The Xiangyang - Yichang Expressway, The expreeway directly connect Xiangyang to the Shanghai-Chengdu Expressway. With a length of 141.4 kilometers and a two-way four-lane design, the total investment of the project is about 25.3 billion CNY, and the average cost per kilometer is about 142 million yuan. The Hubei Provincial Department of Transportation has agreed to carry out the project feasibility. The expressway will be jointly developed by Xiangyang and Yichang, A more detailed discription of the project is in Appendix D.

4. Need for Planning Data

60. In summary, the totals for the different road categories appear impressive. However, there is a major gap in the data and its analysis: there is no systematic traffic counting by any agency and the data that are available (periodic Provincial traffic counts on vehicles passing through Xiangyang) have not been integrated with origin-destination (O:D) surveys. In other words, we have the infrastructure but we don’t really know how many are using it, who is using it, why they are using it, and when they are using it. Which means that forecasting is next to impossible. 61. How to bridge this knowledge gap? First, there are equipment requirements including those that provide traffic counts by hour that can be shifted to different locations. Second, there has to be improved data recording and sharing by the various involved agencies, including a centralized database that the various agencies can utilize. This includes driver/passenger O:D surveys and preference surveys, some of which the urban bus company already undertakes and utilizes in its information system. However, there is not a fully

Transport Plan (2020) Page 23 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) integrated bus information system. Third, more use of the mobile phone database could result in a more comprehensive database on traffic flows. Huawei has indicated an interest in providing mobile phone data from all three providers in Xiangyang (China Telecom 22%, Unicom 22%, and China Mobile 56% coverage). This project worked with one of the providers to demonstrate the typreof information that could be collected. 62. Developing this database over time in conjunction with historic socioeconomic variables including population, gross domestic product (GDP) employment, industrial output, etc., will provide the basis for traffic forecasting. The means are available to establish and implement an upgraded and functional database. 63. Importantly by establishing a database that includes counts and travel times by time of day, capacity bottlenecks can be readily identified and remedial actions can be taken— whether short- or long-term. 64. The capacity to understand and analyze traffic must become a priority for infrastructure planning as well as for transport services such as buses. To date, an integrated database and traffic/transport information system has not been developed.

B. Urban Roads

1. Current Situation and Developments

65. The Xiangyang urban area is undergoing dramatic changes with the relocation of government offices to the new city center, the establishment of new central business districts, and the location of the new High Speed rail terminal. The land area for the expanded urban area will be roughly four times larger than the current city center. In the northern section, manufacturing and logistics centers are being planned with some resorts in one of the corners. The existing city center will continue as a main commercial and residential area. The eastern area will also include commercial and residential activities as well as hosting the new government offices and the new HS rail terminal. Tourism including resorts, and a port will be located in the south. 66. Another challenge is coping with increasing traffic in the existing city center. Passenger and freight traffic have been increasing at 13% and 9% per year between 2013 and 2016. The number of private vehicles grew at an average annual rate of 23% per year between 2013 and 2016, and now total about 260,000. As a result, there are congested bottlenecks in the urban road system. Relocating government offices to and developing new commercial and residential area in the new city area will help to reduce some of the congestion. Heavy truck traffic is limited to between 12:00 am and 5:00 am in the existing city center. However, these measures won’t resolve all the issues. 67. The goal is for all of the urban area to be within 15 minutes of an expressway. To facilitate this, an east-west axis expressway with tunnels under the Yuliang Zhou delta and ecological park island is being planned that will run west to east and connecting to existing north-south expressways at both ends. It will pass just in the northern edges of the existing city center, go under the island, and then pass north of the new town center. 68. However, other initiatives are also needed for non-motorized transport, the many motorbikes, and pedestrians. In addition, there are some opportunities for retrofits to enhance bus stops and access to taxis. Parking is also becoming an issue in the existing city center,

Transport Plan (2020) Page 24 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) which also adds to congestion. Park and ride facilities and not being planned, although bus connections between the existing city center, the new city center, and the railway stations including the new high-speed passenger terminal could alleviate some congetion and requirements for parking. The Traffic Police are reportedly considering a plan to improve traffic flows in the existing city center. 69. Within the established urban and city areas traffic volumes and traffic congestion can be described as being moderate. There is very little evidence of significant congestion delays caused by traffic volumes in excess of road capacity – though there are of course areas that are relatively more congested than others (e.g. the traffic bottleneck associated with the Han Shui Bridge as already noted). Arguably much of the current traffic delays are caused not so much by traffic volumes per se, but by road user behaviour. Left turns across double yellow ‘no crossing’ lines delay both following vehicles and opposing vehicles. Motorists executing U-turns in inappropriate locations slows traffic. Vehicles parked on sidewalks and blocking pedestrian flows encourages pedestrians to walk on roadways, thus slowing traffic. Vehicles parked in traffic lanes naturally slows traffic. In particular cases construction works and construction barriers ‘flow’ onto roads, restricting road capacity and slowing traffic. 70. Traffic volumes in the city are manageable at present, but with increasing private motorisation congestion levels will increase unless proactive measures are taken by Government. Appropriate road pricing measures should be introduced sooner rather than later. 71. Competition for the very limited amount of car, delivery vehicle, bicycle and motorcycle parking space is causing problems. Inappropriate on-street parking slows traffic and buses. Inappropriate parking on footpaths encourages and even forces pedestrians to walk on the roads, slowing traffic and buses. Footpaths broken by vehicles further encourage pedestrians to walk on the roads. As motorisation increases this cannot be allowed to continue. Parking regulations, parking pricing and parking enforcement will all be required. The city is too big to do it all at once: several demonstration projects are proposed.

2. The Implications of Doing Nothing

72. In discussion with transport industry players it is apparent that there are concerns that implementing measures to limit the growth of motor vehicle use in Xiangyang will adversely affect the city’s competitiveness and attractiveness for business, compared with other cities in China. There are also concerns that measure to discourage motor vehicle use will cause some unrest. This sub-section aims to point out the implications of not addressing the rapid increase in motor vehicle use in Xiangyang. 73. As previously noted, traffic congestion in the established urban area is not overly excessive at present. However in the absence of policy intervention this favourable situation is almost certain to change. 74. Private vehicle ownership is relatively low in China at present, compared with more developed nations. But China is developing rapidly, incomes are rising, discretionary expenditure is increasing and motor vehicle ownership is seen as a status symbol. China is currently the world’s single largest motor vehicle manufacturer – much of this production being for domestic consumption. For these reasons, motor vehicle ownership rates in China can be reasonably expected to increase significantly over the coming years (in the absence of widespread policies to the contrary).

Transport Plan (2020) Page 25 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

75. Figure 3.1: below shows, at the starting point, China’s current national motor vehicle ownership per 1,000 persons2. It then plots a series of motor vehicle ownership rate trajectories if China were, in ten years time, to achieve the current (c. 2015-2018) vehicle ownership rates of a selection of more developed countries. At recent Xiangyang motor vehicle ownership growth rates, Xiangyang’s motor vehicle ownership per head of population would reach USA motor vehicle ownership rates by 2026, just 7 to 8 years hence.

Figure 3.1: Motor Vehicle Ownership Trajectories Source: Extrapolated from Wikipedia search of ‘List of countries by vehicles per capita’

76. While new roads will be built in Xiangyang – as in the case of the New City – road capacity increases will undoubtedly not keep pace with the increase in motorisation. This will be especially the case in the built-up urban area, where opportunities for new roads are much more limited. 77. This will mean that traffic congestion will increase and with that increase in congestion road travel speeds will decrease. Peak traffic periods will spread as people change their travel times to try to avoid the most congested times of travel. Travel speeds will therefore not only reduce, but will reduce for longer periods of the day. There will be significant pressure to allow general traffic into relatively low vehicle use3 bus lanes. And bus lanes cannot be provided everywhere. 78. Buses in mixed traffic travel slower than general traffic:- they have lower acceleration rates and have to stop to pick up and set down passengers. As general traffic speeds reduce,

2 The ToR identifies that in 2016 Xiangyang’s motor vehicle ownership rate of 173 vehicles per 1,000 persons was consistent with the national average. 3 But high person use.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 26 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) so too bus travel speeds will reduce, with bus travel speeds (in mixed traffic) remaining lower than the ever reducing general traffic speeds. There will be no time advantage in travelling by bus. Indeed, for bus passengers, there will be a relative travel time advantage of opting for private car travel instead of bus travel.

79. The cost of operating bus services will increase as bus travel speeds decrease.4. At the same time, the bus network will need to expand to serve new and more remote locations, such as the New City. These two factors combined will have a very significant and adverse impact on bus gross operating costs. Despite population increase, bus ridership / load factors are likely to decrease as former passengers opt for the travel time savings of private motor vehicles and new bus routes to new areas will carry fewer passengers per bus kilometre travelled. In an optimistic scenario passenger revenues may increase, but even so will not increase at the same rate as the anticipated increase in gross operating costs. Inevitably the bus company’s operating deficit5 will increase. 80. The risks associated with doing nothing in terms of managing motor vehicle use in Xiangyang can therefore be summarised as follows:  Increased general traffic congestion, increased vehicle travel times and increased travel times for bus passengers;  Increased deficits for the bus company;  Overall reduced economic performance and competitiveness of the city as a whole.

3. Preferred Road Pricing Approach

81. There are a variety of road pricing approaches in place internationally and domestically. Each has been tailored to best meet the needs of each particular city. These approaches include lottery to purchase number plates for a new car (Beijing), public bidding to purchase number plates for a new car (Shanghai), cordon pricing (London), a combination of lottery / bidding and cordon pricing (Singapore) and tolls on highways (Australia, France). 82. The lottery and bidding options certainly reduce the number of vehicles in the market, and therefore have an indirect downward impact on the amount of traffic on the streets. However once the ownership hurdle has been overcome there is no ongoing pricing mechanism to further reduce road consumption by those who have gained ownership through lottery or bidding. 83. For Xiangyang a preferred approach is to directly charge – even partially - for actual road space consumed. In this way motorists will be aware of the costs that they will incur due to their day to day travel decisions. This awareness is the means for achieving the required behavioural modification – vis to use private vehicles less and to avoid wasteful congestion- causing private car usage 84. Xiangyang is already in the favourable position of having numerous traffic enforcement camera gantries. This system also includes automatic vehicle number plate recognition. Conceptually this existing hardware and software could be modified and extended to be used

4 As bus speeds decrease, more buses and drivers will be required to operate any given service. This will increase costs. 5 Or if the bus company’s deficit is to not increase, then the subsidy that the local Government needs to pay to the bus company to maintain bus services will need to increase. There will be a cost increase that will need to be paid for by local Government, one way or another.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 27 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) for road pricing. With modern technology that pricing could (and probably should) vary depending on the level of congestion at that particular location and at that day and time (and also depending on Xiangyang Government’s desire for motorists to opt for that route or some other alternative route).

Figure 3.2: One of the Many Traffic Enforcement Gantries in Xiangyang

85. All things being equal:  As and when traffic volumes per lane are high (a proxy for congestion) the user charge would be at the upper end of the maximum (note however that at current traffic volumes the maximum amount charged per event would itself be very low);  For those roads that for whatever reason the Government was keen for traffic to not use (e.g. residential streets, etc.) the user charge would be at the upper end of the maximum (noting here the same point as has been made above). 86. This charging system should initially be implemented at the locations of the existing camera gantries, trialled, and extended once operating successfully. 87. In principle no vehicles would be exempt. Government cars, government buses, private buses, taxis, etc. would all be charged a sum for their road consumption. Larger vehicles (e.g. buses) that consume more road space than standard cars would be charged more than standard cars. For cars, with their low occupancy, the road charge would be incurred by the one driver6. For buses the cost would be spread across all passengers, in the form of a very small almost imperceptible fare increase per passenger7. Taxis would be charged at the same rate as private cars. 88. While the prime objective of road (and parking) pricing is to modify driver behaviour (by suppressing ‘wasteful’ consumption of road space) it will also have a useful side benefit:-

6 Though it might be shared between the driver and the passenger. 7 Very small fare increases are less easily cash payment systems than for electronic payment systems. This may be a pragmatic reason for not charging buses for their road consumption since it is hard for the bus company to pass that cost on to cash-paying passengers.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 28 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) that being the generation of revenues for Government use. Those revenues would be applied to managing the road pricing system, with surplus revenues available for other uses, such as funding public transport services. 89. In practice it is more likely that buses (and possibly taxis) would be exempt. Such exemptions, if implemented, would not present a fatal flaw to the proposed road pricing regime. 90. Now is the opportune time to introduce some form of pricing regime to limit the growth in motor vehicle use in Xiangyang. As noted above, current traffic congestion levels are relatively low. That means that a pricing regime, if introduced now, could also charge relatively low prices. In that way there would be little driver opposition to the introduction of a road pricing regime. As time goes on, and as traffic volumes increase, the price charged for the consumption of road space would be gradually increased – so as to ‘price away’ excess use. Put another way the avoidance of future congestion would be better served by the orderly transition now to a road pricing regime than an abrupt and disorderly transition at a later stage.

C. Road Freight

91. Properly constructed roads are not damaged by high volumes of cars or motorcycles. It is heavy trucks that damage roads. The more weight per truck axle the more the damage to the roads. 92. This is a fact well known to road engineers. It is also self-evident from casual observation. In China the roads within city boundaries are generally in much better condition than the roads outside the city boundaries. The key difference in traffic is that while trucks operate outside the city boundaries, trucks are (generally) prohibited from operating within the city boundaries8 93. In this regard the roads in Xiangyang are no different from other similar areas of China. The roads within the city are smooth and even whilst many of the roads outside the city are corrugated and badly broken due to damage by heavy trucks.

8 Or heavy truck use within city boundaries is severely curtailed.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 29 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

94. Damage to roads by overloaded trucks causes significant economic loss: A case study (as observed on a trip by regional bus between Yicheng and Xiangyang in mid-April  The road requires considerable 2019). more maintenance and repair The road pavement was badly corrugated due to costs than would otherwise be the overloaded trucks, especially on the outer right case. This places additional hand ‘slow’ lane. pressure on scarce public funds As a result, all traffic – including the overloaded and diverts funds from other trucks – tended to now drive close to the centre important causes (e.g. education, line, where it was less corrugated. health, etc.). In many occasions General traffic was invariably travelling faster than there simply is not the public the overloaded centre-lane trucks. So to pass the funding to repair the road and road trucks, cars and buses usually passed on to the right hand side of the slower moving trucks. This pavement condition gets ever required travelling quickly on the to-be –avoided worse; most corrugated outer part of the road.  The benefits envisaged when the Bicycles and low powered motorcycles still road was first built (e.g. getting travelled in the safer outside area of the right hand perishable products to markets lane, despite the corrugations. Except where the quickly, etc.) are not fully realised; road pavement was particularly damaged, in which case they would swerve closer to the centre  The poor road condition leads to line to avoid the worst of the road damage. poor driver behaviour which in turn Straight into the path of cars and buses increases motor vehicle accidents, approaching at high speed from behind while ‘undertaking’ overloaded trucks. personal injury and economic loss. On occasion the bus driver avoided this situation 95. It is important to understand why by passing the overloaded truck (which was trucks are overloaded in order to develop travelling towards the centre of the road) on the rational solutions to the problem. Put left and into the face of oncoming traffic – typically simply, trucks are overloaded because it an overloaded truck hugging the smoother centre line in that direction. is in the truck operator’s best interests to do so. By overloading, the truck operator does not need to make so many trips to carry a given amount of goods. By not travelling so far, the truck operator saves on fuel costs, labour costs and vehicle capital costs. Vehicle capital costs are saved in two ways: (1) fewer trucks are required, since each truck carries more freight, and (2) less expensive trucks can be operated, since trucks that are not designed to carry so much load cost less than more heavily engineered trucks (fewer axles, smaller engines, etc.). 96. There is a second important reason why truck operators overload. It is a competitive business, and if they do not then they will need to charge more, and as a result they will have fewer customers. It is akin to athletes taking performance enhancing drugs – because everyone else is doing it each player needs to do it to stay competitive. 97. To significantly overcome the problem caused by overloaded trucks it is important to put measures in place that incentivise truck operators: 1. to not overload trucks; and 2. to purchase trucks that are better suited to carrying legal loads without causing excessive road pavement damage.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 30 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

98. To deal with the above 2nd point first: As noted above, trucks cause road damage due to axle loads. Therefore, truck operators need to be incentivised to operate trucks with more axles when carrying heavy loads, and to only use trucks with fewer axles when carrying light loads. This can be achieved by charging truck operators a ‘road user charge’ applicable to the axle configuration and the weight of the load carried. Under this regime, a (say) 40 tonne gross vehicle mass load spread over a truck’s total of five axles (say) would be charged less per km than the same weight spread over a different truck’s total of three axles (say). Truck operators would buy9 a ‘weight & axle configuration’ permit (i.e. road user charge) applicable to the truck in question and the goods it was about to carry for all use of the truck. That permit would be for a certain distance and / or for a certain time, with the permit rate per km (or per hour) depending in the ‘weight & axle configuration’ for the particular freight task. 99. The rate per km (by axle configuration and weight) would be set to cover the costs of repairing road pavement damage caused by a truck of that axle configuration and weight. In this way the truck industry would incur the costs of maintaining the roads that it damaged. This would also put the road freight industry on a (more) level playing field with the rail freight industry (which has to cover the costs of track maintenance itself). 100. To now deal with the 1st point above: If a truck operator assesses that the probability of being caught10 conceptually factored by the penalty incurred if caught is low, then truck operators will continue to overload11. Other truck operators will then be very inclined to do likewise. Therefore an enforcement regimes is required that: 1. Yields a high likelihood of inspection by police; and 2. A very severe penalty for breaches of the proposed permit system. 101. Levels of enforcement would almost certainly need to be increased above current levels. That enforcement would include fixed road-side weigh-point locations (as already exist, but more of them) staffed with well trained and diligent officers. The enforcement would also include mobile patrols equipped with mobile truck weighing devices. 102. The type of severe penalty that would focus the minds of truck drivers would include:  A fine equal to (say) 20 or 30 times the permit fee avoided from not having the correct and valid axle and weight configuration permit when stopped by police;  A fine (say) two or three times the above fine for carrying a load that is illegal in terms of exceeding Government-specified maximum permitted gross vehicle mass for that road and / or carrying a load that is illegal in terms of exceeding vehicle manufacturer’s- specified maximum permitted gross vehicle mass. 103. No overloaded vehicle would be permitted to move from that inspection point while overloaded. The truck operator would be liable for all costs associated with removing excess weight (i.e. hire of another truck, etc.). 104. Overloaded vehicles held at any inspection point would be charged a fee for occupying that space until moved.

9 Online, via an app. 10 Carrying a load in excess of the permit paid for – too heavy, too far, for too long. 11 See footnote above

Transport Plan (2020) Page 31 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

105. Multiple infringements could result in forfeiture of the truck to the Government and / or cancellation of the truck operator’s license to operate. 106. Legal action would be taken to collect any unpaid debts. Unpaid debts would escalate at a high rate monthly. 107. The business details of offending truck companies would be published and would be provided to the relevant truck operators’ association. Repeat offenders could be barred from belonging to a truck operator’s association for a defined period. 108. If the empirically correct road user charges were to result in an increase in the cost of road freight costs incurred by truck operators then these cost increases would be passed on to customers. This in turn might encourage some customers to opt for rail freight – consistent with Government policy to increase rail freight mode share.

D. Pedestrians and Parking

1. Issues Facing Pedestrians

109. Pedestrians face a constant series of obstacles, particularly in the older and more established areas of the city. Cars parked on footpaths (as mentioned above), cars manoeuvring to and from footpath parking, changes in footpath height at business vehicle entrances, uneven cobbled footpaths, street furniture and fixtures to be avoided, and bicycles (motorised and non-motorised) and motor scooters (electric and petrol) moving amongst but faster than pedestrians are all obstacles for pedestrians to overcome.

Figure 3.3: Cars blocking footpaths

110. Of the issues mentioned above, motorcycles ridden on footpaths is without doubt the single greatest problem facing pedestrians, followed closely by the problem of cars parked on footpaths. 111. In newer / redeveloped areas of the city pedestrian travel is easier, with better pavements and less interaction with two-wheeled vehicles. At face value this is indicative of Xiangyang Government’s recognition of the difficulties facing pedestrians in some areas. 112. Pedestrians also face the additional burden of having to ascend and descend the grade separated pedestrian interchanges atop many of the main traffic intersections in the city.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 32 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

2. Parking Pricing

113. The concept of road pricing should not be limited to applying solely to motor vehicles as they travel along roads. The principle should also apply to any parked vehicles consuming public space – such as parked on street or parked on footpaths. By applying pricing to vehicles parked in public spaces the adverse impacts of such parking can be reduced. Different parking rates (and penalties) can apply in different parts of the city and at different times of the day depending on the situation.

Figure 3.4: High Capacity Low Capital Cost Off-Street Parking in Xiangyang

114. Once a value is placed on parking in public spaces there will be a market for the private development of off-street parking facilities. The cost of constructing and operating off-street car parks therefore need not be a cost to Government alone. Of course, the higher the charge set by Government for parking in public space, the higher the sum chargeable by potential private car park developers – and the greater the amount of off-street parking that would be provided by the private sector.

E. Two-Wheeled Travel

115. In Xiangyang two-wheeled travel includes bicycle (owned or ‘share-use’) either pedal- powered or electric, or motorcycle (generally of the low-powered motor scooter type) either electric or gasoline powered. In comparison with pedestrian travel, two-wheel travel could

Transport Plan (2020) Page 33 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) hardly be easier. Xiangyang is covered with an extensive network of cycle lanes – including cycle only, cycle lanes shared with pedestrians, cycle lanes shared with buses and taxis, including both off-road and on-road treatments. 116. For reasons that are self-evident, motorists are very ‘cycle aware’ and although motor vehicles and two-wheel vehicles often travel closely to one another, and / or have to stop for one another, it all ‘works’ with no signs of angst or western-style ‘road-rage’. Driver behavior

Figure 3.5: Cyclists and Other Vehicles At-Grade. Pedestrians Go Over improvement measures are further discussed in the Traffic Management section below. 117. At intersections, two-wheeled travellers either comply with the green vehicle traffic signal and proceed with the traffic on that phase, or cross on the pedestrian phase along with pedestrians12, depending on the intersection in question. In any event, it all seems to work rather well for two-wheeled vehicles: not so well for pedestrians (as briefly discussed above). 118. In many parts of the city – including cross river travel – two wheeled travellers significantly outnumber pedestrians.13 On-street, two-wheeled vehicles undoubtedly slow buses at times – buses tend not to materially slow two-wheeled vehicles. The safe use of the very high number of two-wheeled vehicles would need to be an important consideration in any at-grade track based LRT proposal.

12 Unless there is a pedestrian overbridge, in which case pedestrians are not permitted to cross the road at grade. 13 And why wouldn’t that be so, being so much faster and easier.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 34 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

IV. RAIL, INLAND WATERWAY AND INTERMODAL

A. Railways

1. National and Regional Rail

119. The railways are set to play a much larger role in Xiangyang’s future primarily because of the three new High Speed (HS) passenger lines and the heavy haul coal line that will begin operating over the next several years. The new terminal for the HS lines is located southeast of the existing city center and about 20 km distant. 120. There are three existing railways (Handan, Jiaoliu , Xiangyu ) with a total route length of 330 km in Xiangyang, a large marshalling yard (Xiangyang North Station) and more than 20 railway stations in Xiangyang Prefecture. In 2017, passenger and freight traffic volume through Xiangyang totaled 20 million passengers and 14 million tons respectively, of which the arriving traffic reached eight million tons while the out-going traffic was six million tons. In the existing city center, Xiangyang Station, and Xiangyang Dong (East) Station are the main passenger stations. 121. The Handan Railway (Wuhan to Danjiangkou Railway, east-west bound) has a total route length of 412 kilometers, of which about 182 kilometers are within Xiangyang. There are 10 stations in Xiangyang, including Laohekou, Ma Shed, Xiangyang North, Xiangyang, Xiangyang East and Zaoyang. This line was put into operation in 1967. It is connected to the Beijing-Guangzhou and Wuhan-Jiujiang railways in the south and meets the Jiaozuo-Liuzhou and Xiangyang-Chongqing railways in Xiangyang. It is the main line connecting the central and northwestern parts of Hubei Province. 122. In July 2009, the Wuhan-Xiangyang section of the Handan Railway (except Danjiangkou to the eastern section of Laohekou) was electrified with double tracks. The train speed of the Handan railway was increased from 120 kmph to 200 kmph. At present, there are 17 pairs of EMU trains between Xiangyang and Wuhan running every day. 123. The Jiaoliu Railway (Jiaozuo to Liuzhou Railway, north-south bound) starts from Jiaozuo City, Henan Province, and ends in Liuzhou, Guangxi. It has a total route length of 1,645 kilometers. There are 105 kilometers of the line with 10 stations in Xiangyang, including Denghu Station, Yuying Station, Xiangyang North Station, Xiangyang Station, Yujiahu Station, Wangshugang Station, Brick Temple Station, Zhushi Station and Yicheng Station. Jiaoliu Railway was built in 1970. In 2010, the Luoyang-Zhangjiajie section was electrified. The train speed has been increased from 120 km/h to 160 km/h. 124. The Xiangyu Railway (Xiangyang to Chongqing Railway) starts from the east of Laohekou East Railway Station of Xiangyang and arrives at Chongqing Railway Station via Shiyan City, Ankang City, Dazhou City and Guang'an City with a total length of 837 kilometers, including about 43 kilometers in Xiangyang. It was officially opened in 1979 and was electrified with double-track in November 2009. The designed train speed is 160 kmph. 125. In addition to the railway lines are stations and other facilities including the Xiangyang North Station (Xiangyang North Marshalling Yard). It was built in 1958 and is located in Mizhuang Town, near the Xiangyang High-tech Zone. The marshalling yard expanded in 2012, and is now the 13th largest in China. Prior to the expansion it had capacity to handle 2-3,000 wagons/day, now capacity is 6,000 wagons/day. It is responsible for the five direction’s

Transport Plan (2020) Page 35 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

(Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Liuzhou, Luoyang, Danjiang) train decomposition and reformation work for the railway trunk lines of Handan, Jiaoliu and Xiangyu. 126. The Xiangyang Railway Station was built in 1958 and is now the main passenger and cargo station in the Xiangyang Railway Hub. There are 15 arrival and departure lines and 2 main lines for through trains. In 2015, the receiving and dispatching capacity of the station was 60 pairs of trains with 27 pairs of final destination trains, and 40 pairs of passing trains. 127. The Xiangyang Dong (East) Railway Station is located on the Handan Line connecting the Xiangyang North Station and the Xiangyang Station. It is at the intersection of the Handan Line and the Jiaoliu Line. Completed on July 1, 2012, it is the fourth railway station in Xiangyang City, following Xiangyang Station (First Class Station), Fuyang North Station (Special Station) and Xiangyang South Station (fourth station). There are 10 arrival and departure lines plus 5 main lines for through trains. In 2015, the receiving and dispatching capacity of the station was 45 train pairs with another 45 pairs for through trains. 128. The 3 new lines under construction include a dedicated freight line and 2 high-speed lines. The 3 lines have a total of 540 km within Xiangyang. All of them will be opened during the end 2019-2020 period. 129. The Menghua Railway (from the west of Inner Mongolia to eastern China，and is north-south bound in Xiangyang) starts from Erdos in Inner Mongolia, passing through seven provinces including Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi, and ends in Ji'an City, Jiangxi Province. Its main line is 1,814.5 kilometers (330.6 kilometers in Hubei) with the technical standards of electrified, heavy haul (25-ton axle load) and double-track railway. 130. The Menghua Railway passes through 6 counties (cities, districts) of Xiangyang, including Xiangzhou , Hi-tech zone, Fancheng, Xiangcheng, Nanzhang and Yicheng, with a total length of 111 kilometers. A decomposition station will be set up in Xiangzhou and 2 stations that will be passed through without stopping in Fancheng West and Oumiao. A 24.4 kilometer connecting line between Denghu and Gaoying Station will be also built. 131. Denghu Station will serve as the end point for the 10,000 ton trains (based on 120 wagons of 80 tons each=96,000 tons), where it will be broken into two 5,000 ton trains. The two trains will then be able to disperse over the network. The heavy haul DaQin line returns to Datong with empty wagons. It has not been determined whether the wagons returning to Erdos will be empty or carrying cargo. 132. The total investment is 193.04 billion CNY, of which the Xiangyang section is about 13.9 billion CNY. Construction started in 2015, and it is planned to be completed and opened to traffic at the end of 2019. 133. The. Han-Shi HS line (southeast-northwest bound in Xiangyang) is an important part of the planned Wuhan-Xi'an HS route. The project starts from Xiaogan East Station in the east and reaches Shiyan North Station in the west. It has a total length of 395 kilometers and a design speed of 350 km/h. Han-Shi HS Railway passes through 5 counties (cities, districts) of Zaoyang, Xiangzhou, Dongjin, Xiangcheng and Gucheng, with a total length of 180 km in Xiangyang. There are 3 stations in Zaoyang, Dongjin and Gucheng. The line and the station began operations in2019.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 36 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

134. The total investment is about 54.5 billion CNY, of which about 23.8 billion CNY is in the Xiangyang section. Construction started in 2015, and it is planned to be completed and opened to traffic in 2019-2020. 135. The Zheng-Wan HS line (northeast-southwest bound in Xiangyang) starts from Zhengzhou East Station in the north, passing through Xuchang, Pingdingshan and Nanyang of Henan Province, Yangyang, Shenlongjia, Xingshan and Badong of Hubei Province, and to Wanzhou of Chongqing. From Wanzhou it connects to existing railways that continue on to Chongqing. It has a total length of 818.1 km, including 187 kilometers in Xiangyang, passing through its five counties (districts)：Xiangzhou, Dongjin, Xiangcheng, Nanxun and Baokang. 136. The total investment is about 118 billion CNY, of which about 22.4 billion CNY is in the Xiangyang section. Construction started in 2016, and it is planned to open to traffic in 2021. The section between Xiangyang Dongjin to Zhengzhou is expected to open to traffic in 2019- 2020. 137. The Dongjin HS Railway Station is the hub station for the three high-speed railways: Han-Shi, Zheng-Wan and the planned HS line from Xiangyang to Changde in Hunan. It is a “zero-transfer” (seamless transfer between modes) integrated transportation hub with railway transportation as the center and integrating various traffic modes including cars, buses, and urban mass transit (subway or light rail). The total investment is about 10 billion CNY, with a total construction area of 645,600 square meters, including 214,200 square meters for the station, 430,700 square meters for other transport modes. The stations will have 9 platforms with 20 lines. The project started in September 2016 and is began operationsat the end of 2019. 138. The Xiangyang-Changde HS line (north-wouth bound) is part of the HS route from Hohot in Inner Mongolia to Nanning in Guanxi Province. The section in Hubei is about 210 kilometers long. The Xiangyang section will start from the Dongjin HS Railway Station and passes through Yicheng to Jingmen . The total length in Xiangyang is about 65 km. 139. The total investment in the Hubei section is about 30 billion CNY of which 9 billion CNY is in the Xiangyang section. It is planned to start construction in 2019. However, the final alignment has not been determined. 140. There are other key activities associated with railways in Xiangyang that have been approved for implementation under the 13th 5-Year Plan. These include:  Development of a railway logistics center (2,218 mu; capacity over 10 M tons/yr). It will be next to the existing railway vehicle manufacturer and adjacent to the marshalling yard. Construction hasn’t started yet.  There are plans to relocate the existing freight yard in the city center to an area between the marshalling yard and the new railway logistics park.  A new spur line is planned for the new port (govt owned) now under construction about 30 km south of the city center.  A new spur line will be built for Dongfeng (following national policy the company will pay for it).  An information platform is planned.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 37 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

141. However, there are issues resulting from the new and planned developments. It appears that light rail is being planned and an application will be submitted by end 2019 and begin construction in 2020. The agencies involved indicated that it would cost about two-thirds the cost of subway (excluding land acquisition and demolition). Agencies have acknowledged that light rail/subway incurred debt has affected certain cities. 142. It will take 5-6 years to construct light rail. Given that the new HS lines won’t be fully operational (in terms of full integration with the HS network) for 2-3 more years, express buses can handle limited number of passengers at the new HS terminal for 2-3 years but then there will be a gap of another 2-3 years when passenger traffic may be very high to service with express buses. 143. Another key issue is that the current north-south Jiaoliu Railway dissects the city center and adds congestion and restricts growth. It has been proposed that the line be located either west or east of the city. It has been suggested the eastern route would be preferable based on construction preferences (i.e., ease of construction) and the Xiangyang Dong Station could handle the passenger traffic. Some people may prefer to keep the Xiangyang Station in operation but it has a large footprint in the city center that restricts development. However, with the new HS terminal, it is likely that some congestion issues will be resolved and Xiangyang Station is likely to remain in operation. 144. There is another rail station, Xiangyyang Nan, which is south of the city and is used primarily for gravel transport.. 145. The relocated line could align with the corridor of the appropriate HS lines, thus limiting land use impacts. This is shown in Figure 3.3. 146. Figure 4.1 shows the current Xiangyang urban railway facilities. As noted, the North Station at the marshalling yard would continue to operate and the freight station now in the city center would be next to it. Xiangyang Dong would handle Xiangyang Station’s passenger traffic with the new alignment. Collectively these actions would open more area for development in the city center and reduce congestion. 147. Another suggestion would be to extend the spur line to Dongfeng Motors from the marshalling/freight yard/railway logistics park eastward past Dongfeng, the new logistics base park and the airport to the proposed river port if it is approved (it has been approved by the Provincial DRC but XMG Land Use Planning Bureau opposes it on grounds that it will create congestion on the river and possibly pollute the Han River). This could serve as the main spur line to which could be attached additional spur lines serving other logistics centers and manufacturers in the area. This area has been designated for logistics centers and large manufacturers, thus establishing a rail network to service them would be a logical step. A number of the currently planned logistics centers have not included railway lines. 148. Figure 4.2 shows Xiangyang and the connections of current, under construction and planned lines in conjunction with the broader Chinese rail network. As shown, Xiangyang will have an important role to play as a hub in the railway network. ++

Transport Plan (2020) Page 38 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Relocate Jiaoliu Railway to east of city center and follow HS rail lines as a corridor. Xiangyang Dong would become the passenger station and the rest of the route south from the intersection would be closed. Close Route Xiangyang Dong Rail Corridor

Figure 4.1: Proposed Relocation of the Jiaoliu Railway

Transport Plan (2020) Page 39 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Xiangyang Urban Railway Facilities

Railway

Railway Planned

RR Freight Station

RR Marshalling Yard

RR Passenger Stations

Central Station

Xiangyang Dong

New High Speed Station=Dongjin

Figure 4.2: Xiangyang Urban Railway Facilities

Transport Plan (2020) Page 40 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 4.3: Xiangyang and the China Railway Network Source: Railway Office, Xiangyang. January 2019

Transport Plan (2020) Page 41 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

2. Urban Rail

149. The established rail corridor through the city currently serves no useful urban passenger task. Trains on these lines comprise solely long passenger distance trains or freight trains. By and large, long distance passenger trains either travel north - south and stop at Xiangyang station, or east - west and stop at Xiangyang Dong station - though some of the east - west trains terminate at Xiangyang station and as a result do not stop at Xiangyang Dong station. With the opening of the new high speed rail lines to the south east of the New City some 20 of the current 23 pairs of passenger trains that terminate at and then depart from Xiangyang (either station) will be diverted from the existing ‘conventional’ line to the new high speed line. As a result the number of long distance passenger trains operating on the existing conventional lines (via Xiangyang and / or Xiangyang Dong) will decrease. 150. A proposal to relocate the rail freight traffic via a new freight-only line to the east of the city would of course, if implemented, significantly reduce the number of freight train movements through the existing Xiangyang conventional rail network. 151. The likely reduction in the number of long distance passenger trains operating on the existing ‘conventional’ Xiangyang rail lines, plus the possibility of relocating freight trains away from the existing ‘conventional’ Xiangyang rail lines, may give rise to the opportunity to operate an urban rail service on these conventional lines.14

3. Light Rail and Subway

152. Light rail is being planned with an ultimate goal of 5 lines totaling 150 km to be phased in as demand increases. Phase 1 is for 3 lines totaling 70 km (total cost for 70 km approximates 35 billion CNY excluding land acquisition, resettlement and demolition) and this will include linking the airport, the HS terminal, the existing city center, and the new city center. The 70 km will be about 50% elevated. 153. A subway system has also been considered but it appears that light rail is the preferred system given that is cheaper than a subway, and a subway requires an urban populations of at least 3 million before the central government approves. An application for construction is anticipated by end 2019 with construction to begin on the first two lines in 2020 and completed around 2026. The remaining system will not be completed until about 2030.

B. Waterways and Ports

154. As noted in the background section, inland waterways and ports have not received the same attention with respect to investment that other modes have received. This is changing in Xiangyang as a new port is being developed about 30 km from the existing city center, and another port is being proposed to service the manufacturers and logistics centers in the northern part of the enlarged urban area. 155. Reportedly, at one time there were as many as 11 small scattered ports or wharves in the city’s urban area. Currently only one, Shu Jia Port, is operating and it is an older coal port. It had a maximum capacity of 5 million tons per year. At its peak, it handled between 2-3 million

14 It is understood that the possibility of making greater use of existing conventional lines for urban rail services is the matter of some discussion and support at the Central Government level.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 42 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) tons of coal. Currently it handles about 0.5 million tons for the nearby power plant and provides storage space for the coal. 156. The port under construction is next to a free trade zone/industrial park. Xiao He port is south of Shu Jia port, near a railway line for passengers and freight, 4 docks are under construction, and this could be expanded to 17 berths in the future. This port has significance for exporting to international markets through the Yangtze River to Shanghai. A spur railway line is planned to connect to the complex. The port will have an annual capacity of 10 million tons in its first phase and then reaches 20 million tons when fully developed. 157. Adjoining this new port will be a new industrial park that one of the largest operators in the Shenzhen port is considering to develop. A framework for the investment has been agreed upon, and formal contract is pending. 158. The key issues are the dams being built to increase and maintain channel depths and associated dredging to ensure that depths are maintained. There are other works along the river banks to combat erosion. 159. There is one dam about 2 km north of the existing coal port. A second dam at Nianphanshan about 104 km south of Xiangyang city center will be completed in 2021 but filling of the reservoir behind the dam will likely begin this year and continue into 2020. A similar schedule is planned for a third dam on the lower Han River. The dams will ensure that depths will be maintained in the 6-8 meter range. 160. The locks at the dams are capable of handling 2,000 ton vessels but in the beginning years (2020-2025), 1,000 ton vessels will be used and increased to 2,000 tons by 2030. RORO (roll-on/roll-off) vessels are planned to carry vehicles from Dongfeng Motors. In addition, there will be general and bulk cargo vessels that are also able to transport containers. 161. Waterway tariff rates are competitive at 10-20 fen per ton km. Vessels will be able to travel the 400 km to Wuhan in one day and reach Shanghai in another 2-3 days. Inland waterways have proven to be more reliable than railways in that departure/arrival dates and times are set and cargo tracking is possible on a daily basis; whereas shipments via rail are dependent on train movements that do not provide cargo tracking. 162. The proposed Tang Bai Port south of the airport and designated to service the manufacturers (high technology zone for automobile manufacturing) and logistics operators in the northern part of the enlarged urban area has reportedly been approved by the Provincial government. Forty percent of Xiangyang domestic output is from this area. However, the local Land Use and Planning Bureau has raised concerns about possible pollution and river congestion if the port is built. The key issue has been the reclassification of the land from agricultural use to a transportation area and this is expected to be resolved by the end of 2019. 163. Figure 4.4 shows the Xiangyang ports as well as the location of the airport. As noted, the airport is about 18 km from the existing city center and will be slightly closer to the new city center.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 43 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 4.4: Xiangyang Ports

Xiangyang Urban Ports and Airport

Existing Port

Port under construction

Planned Port

Airport

Transport Plan (2020) Page 44 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

C. Logistics

164. The ADB Technical Assistance Report, July 2018 for road, rail, and inland waterway transport of Xiangyang identified bottlenecks and the high costs of logistics in Xiangyang that needs to be examined and analyzed for solutions. 165. Understanding the markets served by transport and logistics and their respective supply chains is important to improving the Xiangyang logistics planning process. Interviews were conducted with both logistics service providers (LSPs) and their customers who are the users of the logistics infrastructures and facilities (parks, centers, Hubei Free Trade Zone, etc.). In addition, interviews were undertaken with relevant associations of business (shippers) and logistics/trucking and government authorities in transport (all modes), logistics and Customs. The customers, markets and supply chains focused on the following sectors of the Xiangyang economy: automotive (electric vehicles), agriculture, mining-raw materials (logs), chemical processing and textiles. The automobile supply chain is especially important to Xiangyang which provides for just-in-time deliveries for automobile manufacturing for Dongfeng Motors, Nissan, Infiniti that are shipped to PRC markets. 166. Recommendations to improve Xiangyang logistics and transport planning are in three areas: 1) institutional by better coordination and collaboration among government offices and between government and business by public-private sector dialogue bodies; 2) policy implementation of multimodal/intermodal among all modes: rail, road, Inland Water Transport (IWT), air; and 3) operational with improving information technologies for better visibility in all supply chains for the increasing inbound and outbound volumes needed for profitability to logistics service providers and their customers as well as for increasing government tax revenues from local, domestic/regional and international trade flows. 167. Through a series of meetings and presentations a number of issues have been raised that affect transport costs and efficient integrated multimodal operations. These include:  Heavy trucks are restricted from entering the existing city center except from 12-5am. They can get a special pass from the public security bureau to enter during the day. The new logistics areas have 24 hr operating hours for heavy trucks and that will not change.  There is no IT platform in Xiangyang but some private companies have their own and a number utilize two national platforms (Huoche Bang and Yun Manman) which have now merged, that is operated by a private company. In 2012-13, XY gov tried to establish a platform but it is offline. Some would like to see a branch of the national platform established here. As noted, different companies, government and transport modes have their own IT systems and there is a gap between their systems. These entities say that their data is confidential. Users do not know where their cargo is and not good at sharing data with poor visibility. However, e-commerce end users can have visibility.  It was reported that total freight traffic in XY is about 300 million tons/yr (originated in and destined for Xiangyang, as well as dispersion of freight originated in and destined for Xiangyang) but rail only handled about 14 million tons and its capacity is 300 million tons.  Dongfeng is set to produce about 1 million cars/yr and rail currently handles 32,000 cars and is planning to handle 200,000. A rail spur line is planned to meet that target. The

Transport Plan (2020) Page 45 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

proposed Tang Bai Port could handle RORO (roll on/roll off) ships and Dongfeng would like to ship new cars via the port.  2018, government called meetings with agencies and private sector to push for shift from road to rail and to generate more use of containers. It is important that this dialogue be continued and highlighted on a regular basis. An inter-governmental meeting was established by the XY NDRC in May 2013 but has seldom met.  For exporters, some use is being made of container block trains to Europe for agricultural products and auto parts. The cost per 40 ft container is 33,000 CNY, of which govt subsidizes 14,000 CNY. Ocean shipping is also utilized with mostly trucks and some rail delivering products to Ningbo, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan and Chongqing.  Interestingly, the cost for 40 ft container shipments from Chongqing and Zhengzhou to Europe is about $7,000 USD, whereas Nippon Express in Xi’an charges $5,000 USD (plus $3,000 for backhaul) because it deals directly with CRC instead of going through an agent, which is required in these other cities.  Tracking container shipments in China adds costs but it is possible. Once a container leaves China, from Central Asia onward is managed by an agent that issues train movement reporst each morning on location of the container from the ionprevious midnight. 168. Figure 3.7 shows main rail routes from Asia to Europe.

Figure 4.5: Main rail routes to Europe

Transport Plan (2020) Page 46 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

 Need to relocate the private logistics center where consolidating shipments and long distance trucking are dominant. Operations are profitable and the largest in the existing city center. Although it is too large for the 2020 plan centers, the overall area designated for logistics could accommodate the relocation.  Zheng Ying Group Company cold storage facility is carrying considerable debt but will remain open. Another cold storage and expanded agricultural facility (a small agricultural operation is currently in use) will be located in the eastern part of the city.  There are some logistics operations in the city center that will eventually be relocated to the new and planned logistics parks.  Market problems: there are no large logistics companies, only 6 percent can serve the markets with average one year sales of 5 million CNY ($741,300).  Express delivery centers are fragmented and generally small and a specific park is being planned. 169. In summary, the logistics industry is rapidly increasing both in importance but also in terms of its land area and scale of operations. However, both the logistics industry and multimodal transport are at very early stages. Operations tend to be small and fragmented. This results in higher costs. Designating areas for manufacturing and logistics facilities will facilitate increasing economies of scale, and ultimately result in more competitive costs. Infrastructure is either constructed, under construction or being planned. However, there is a need for continuing dialogue and information exchange between government agencies, private operators and associations. 170. As the logistics industry and multimodal operations develop, there will be increased competition from neighboring areas to dominate transport linkages. Thus, it is necessary to increase interaction across Xiangyang City. Figure 3.8 shows areas within the City boundaries and neighboring potential large competitors. The geographic boundary focus for this TA is Xiangyang City which includes the Han River, and the Tang Bai River. The broader catchment area includes Baokang (B on the map, west on G4217), Gucheng (G on the map, near Laohekou), Laohekou (L on the map, north near rail and IWT), Nanzhang (N on the map, southwest by railway), Yicheng (Y on the map, south) and Zaoyang (Z on the map, east). Xiangyang regional competition for transport and logistics services could come from Wuhan, Chongqing, Xi’an, and Zhengzhou. However, Xiangyang’s competitive advantage with additional rail linkages crossing the city will need to be exploited and marketed. This is part of a recommendation to move from basic two-party logistics (2PL) services to higher value added services offered by established third-party logistics (3PL) companies. 171. A more detailed description of logistics services is presened in the Logistics Improvement Plan.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 47 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

V. URBAN AND REGIONAL PASSENGER TRANSPORT

A. Introduction

172. The urban and regional transport situation in Xiangyang is changing rapidly, through a combination of increasing incomes and an increasing number of transport options, such as high speed rail, rapidly increasing private motor vehicle ownership and use, recent introduction and rapid increase in the availability of share bikes and also the emerging introduction of car- share schemes. Xiangyang has experienced, and continues to experience, significant urban expansion. The railway marshalling yards, initially constructed in the late 1950’s at the then outskirts of the city, are now all-but surrounded by urban and industry growth. The first main railway and traffic bridge, built across the Han River in 1971 with little road traffic at that time is now a traffic bottleneck. Since 1971, and particularly in more recent years, additional vehicle traffic bridges have been built and are now in use. New bridges across both the Han River and its significant tributary, Tang Bai (an important waterway linking Hubei and Henan provinces) are now being built and yet further vehicle bridges and tunnels are planned. 173. City expansion, constrained by hills in the south, has until recent times mainly been northerly orientated from the ancient city centres. Significant new urban expansion is now taking place to the east of the city at a new city centre. This new city centre is referred to as the New City in the remainder of this paper. 174. The enlarged urban area will be 759 km2 and consist of very dispersed points that will need to be connected. The airport is 18 km from the existing city center and will be only slightly closer to the new town center. The new High Speed rail terminal is about 20 km from the existing town center and it will be about 5 km from the new town center but 10 km from the new central business district. Xiangyang Dong rail station will be roughly 12 km from the new town center. 175. Aside from Xiangyang Dong, these other areas as well as the manufacturers and logistics centers in the northern section of the expanded urban area are not served by the bus system. These dispersed areas present a challenge that will be discussed below. 176. All of these factors are having an impact on existing established transport modes and operations. Patronage and revenue on both urban and regional bus services has fallen markedly over the past 4 – 5 years. This is placing significant financial pressure on operators and pressure on service viability and sustainability. These services require increased revenues if they are to continue. 177. Government itself is under pressure from the transport situation. Financial support required to maintain the current urban bus services is increasing, at a time when additional high cost longer bus routes are also needed. Increased financial support for regional bus services will be needed if these services are to continue. Sustainable service planning and service funding arrangements will need to be put in place. Arrangements to harmonise service planning and Government budget and funding availability are proposed. 178. Government will require additional income streams to sustainably fund its urban transport obligations. Options are offered:- road pricing, parking pricing and air-rights developments. To meet the demands of the future transport planning and funding environment the Government needs to ensure it has the appropriate (and streamlined) organisational

Transport Plan (2020) Page 48 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) structure. An indicative ‘ideal’ organisation structure has been prepared, against which the current structure may be assessed. 179. New high speed rail services are already being introduced. These serve a new station to the south east of the New City (some 20 kms south east of the established older city area). That area is not well connected to the remainder of the urban passenger transport network. New high capacity high frequency relatively high speed passenger services are needed to link the new station with key passenger destinations in Xiangyang. Government will need to plan, implement and fund the required connector services. In the long term these may be LRT or metro, but LRT or metro services will not be operational by the end of this year. An interim, quick to implement and stage-able solution is required and a demonstration project is proposed. 180. The rail lines through the city serve long distance trains and freight trains. The potential to use this existing infrastructure for a new urban rail services warrants serious consideration. An indicative service plan is presented and a demonstration project is proposed. Abandoned or seldom-used rail infrastructure may also serve be able to be used more usefully for pedestrian walk links. 181. Better integration between passenger rail, urban bus and long distance bus services is needed. This could be achieved by the development of a multi-modal transit centre. A preferred location is presented. 182. The New City will be the relocated seat of Xiangyang Government and will include very significant and high density urban development areas. Already the key road network has been constructed, largely in the form of wide multi-lane tree divided boulevards. New parklands have been developed and are being nurtured, with tree-lined meandering pedestrian paths, cycle routes and grassed recreation areas. Many multi-storey apartment buildings have already been built and are occupied. Many more are under construction. There are large areas of land awaiting future development along the lines described above. 183. New high speed rail corridors are being constructed, coming together at the south eastern corner of the New City where a major new 20-track railway station was beeing constructed during the period of this study and is now in (limitied) use. This station will serve high speed rail services between Xiangyang and Xi’an, Chongqing, Yichang, Wuhan and Beijing. The lines will begin operations in late 2019. This station has the capacity for 22,000 passenger arrivals and departures (44,000 total) per day and 300 train movements per day. It has been constructed with provision for two underground train tracks and passenger facilities for urban connector rail services (plus car parking, bus stops, etc.). 184. There are around 2,200 taxis in Xiangyang, of which around 500 are operated by the Bus Company. Taxis are readily available throughout Xiangyang. Taxis also provide the main mode of fare paying passenger transport service to and from Xiangyang airport.

B. Urban Bus Services

185. It is beyond the scope of this strategic urban transport section to present a comprehensive review of the effectiveness of the existing bus routes or of the efficiency of the current bus operators.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 49 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

186. This sub-section focuses on identifying, discussing and presenting improvements that will allow urban transport services to meet the needs of users in a sustainable way. 187. The six key issues identified and discussed in this section are:  Bus Company Funding Arrangements;  Harmonizing Service Levels with Funding Levels;  Organisational Arrangements for Urban and Regional Public Transport;  Coordination Role of Government;  Traffic Management (Improved Driver Behaviour); and  Limiting the Growth of Motor Vehicle Use (Road Pricing). 188. It is likely that some if not all of the above matters will also impact positively on connector passenger transport services (discussed in section 2 above) and regional passenger transport services (discussed in section 4 below).

1. Current Services

189. Currently, the government-owned bus company has 1,300 buses for its 92 urban routes, and with its new terminal (financed by the Fanchan government) coming online by May 2019, it will consist of 70% electric powered buses, and 30% having a mix of electric and CNG with mostly powered by CNG. The older diesel-powered buses will be phased out. 190. Although the bus system is carrying 550-600,000 passengers per day, usage is low (an estimated 20% of all passenger km) and there is only a low level of public transport available in the outlying zones of the prefecture. This will change as connections to the new areas respond to reflect increasing densities of economic activity and population. 191. Figure 5.1 shows current urban bus routes in blue lines with planned routes in red. Note that the outlying areas have not been fully served. 192. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has been discussed at various levels but no firm conclusions have been drawn as yet. This is understandable given the expansion of the urban area to encompass a number of different nodes about 20 km from the existing city center. BRT will be considered by this TA; however, it is likely that an express bus service between nodes utilizing current infrastructure will first be implemented and monitored for its effectiveness and customer satisfaction. The XMTB and the bus company are fully aware of both the positives and minuses for establishing a BRT network. 193. The bus company has stated that it will adjust bus routes and add lines to connect the various nodes resulting from the development of the new city center and the HS railway station. This would include connecting to the airport and the existing railway stations. They are currently assessing implementing a plan for 2019-2021. 194. Urban public mass transport is provided mainly by the 1,300 buses operated by the Xiangyang Government-owned bus company (the Bus Company) of which around 300 are electric and most of the remainder CNG-powered. Buses are presented in very good condition generally: they are clean both inside and out. Passenger destination information is well displayed in large illuminated signs, showing bus route number, origin and destination, both

Transport Plan (2020) Page 50 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) front and rear. The ticketing system is simple: a flat fare of 2 cny per person payable in cash or via mobile phone or a discounted fare of 0.9 cny payable by ‘IC card’ scanning on boarding. 195. There is a significant and well-developed bus network, especially within the more established urban areas. There are 60kms of peak period bus priority lanes (shared with taxis) on high-use bus corridors (see Figure 5.1: ). From both observation and discussion with bus company management and taxi drivers motor vehicle traffic generally does not use these shared bus and taxi lanes and they therefore make a significant improvement over otherwise achievable bus travel speeds and bus (and taxi) user travel times – especially at peak periods. 196. In areas where there is no bus priority buses progress is impeded by the general traffic mix – and by driver behaviour as mentioned above.

Figure 5.1: Current Bus Priority Treatment Locations in Xiangyang Source: Compiled from maps provided by the Bus Company

Transport Plan (2020) Page 51 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 5.2: Bus Priority Lane Signs and Enforcement in Xiangyan

197. At the Xiangyang Government’s instruction the Bus Company has been expanding its service area. The most recent expansions have been between Xiangyang (Xiangyang Station) and the New City. Given the significant and rapid development of the New City the current level of bus service will not be sufficient to cope with the inevitable increase in demand. 198. There are also bus services connecting Xiangyang (the bus station opposite Xiangyang rail station) and Xiangyang Dong rail station and also connecting the Xiangyang bus and rail stations to Xiangyang airport – although at a travel time of more than 1 hour for the 20 km journey this bus service is relatively unattractive to most plane users. 199. There is a significant and well-developed bus network, especially within the more established urban areas. There are 60kms of peak period bus priority lanes (shared with taxis) on high-use bus corridors The Bus Company has little to no ability to amend this situation – it is bound to operate the services required by Xiangyang Government and has no authority to increase bus fares charged to passengers. At present, bus fare revenue falls some 160 M cny pa short of covering gross operating costs. With just 50 M cny pa from Xiangyang Government as a regular subsidy – better referred to as a contract payment – the Bus Company has an ‘excess’ net annual deficit as at end 2018 of around 110 M cny. 200. Unless the funding arrangements change, this fiscal situation will only get worse –as the Bus Company is required to add more longer distance urban services with higher than average resource input costs but lower than average fare revenues per bus kilometre. This adverse financial situation is likely to be compounded with gross unit input costs increasing (due to inflation) at a greater rate than fare levels are likely to increase.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 52 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

201. Bus Company management are keenly aware of the challenges they face in providing increased services and maintaining financial viability in the short, medium and long term.

Figure 5.3: Urban Bus Routes Source: Xiangyang Transport Bureau. 2019

202. There will be a gap of about 2-3 years between when the new High Speed rail lines are fully connected to the national network and when the light rail system is operating. During that time, express buses to/from the various nodes will fill that void. In fact, it is likely that express bus service will be utilized even before the new terminal begins operations in order to connect the various nodes. 203. Understanding traffic flows presents a challenge because the database is weak. As with the road mode generally, there are no regular traffic counts or O:D surveys. The bus company contracted with China Telecom to provide data from its mobile phone users to establish point-to-point users of transport in the urban and peri-urban areas (and based on the speed of movement, bus passengers can be identified). China Telecom mobile phone users comprise about 22% of the Xiangyang market, Unicom another 22%, and China Mobile about 56%. Unfortunately, the China Telecom data does not have an analytical component, so this system cannot be utilized to analyze passenger movements. The bus company also has a proprietary GPS database including online cameras for its buses that tracks passenger and bus movements.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 53 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

204. The bus company with its sister subsidiary for long-distance buses would like to extend its mobile phone user coverage to all of Xiangyang Prefecture in order to determine demand in outlying areas. The bus company is still developing forecasting based on its mobile phone database and hopes that it will be able reach this capability in the not so distant future. 205. This TA Project is planning on using Unicom mobile phone users to assess similar traffic flows and will discuss with the bus company areas for cooperation including expanding coverage to the broader Xiangyang Prefecture. This TA will attempt to utilize the data to forecast traffic flows and firmer O:D data. Some data has already been acquired and this will be discussed in Section 6.

2. Bus Company Funding Arrangements

206. The current funding arrangements for the Bus Company are not sustainable. Passenger fare revenues combined with explicit payments from the Xiangyang Government are not sufficient to cover the costs (operating plus capital) of providing the Government- required services. Entitlements to retired bus drivers have had to be reduced as a means of the Bus Company ‘making ends meet’. 207. This is a critical issue. If the Bus Company is not properly funded it will not be able to continue to provide services in the short term. If it cannot even provide the required services in the short term it has no hope of providing required bus services in the long term. 208. There are four ‘levers’ than can be adjusted, singly or together, to resolve this situation. These are:  Reduce unit resource costs so that costs fall to current revenue (fares plus subsidy) levels, without cutting services. Table 4-2 shows that in order to be successful on its own, unit resource costs (fuel, wages, spare parts, bus capital etc.) would need to reduce by over 30%. While market competition may, if adopted, play a positive part in putting downward pressure on unit resource costs it is extremely unlikely that market pressure alone would be sufficient to drive costs down by the required amount;  Increase passenger fares. If this measure alone were to be adopted, passenger fares would need to increase by at least 55% on average - allowing for modest patronage loss due to the fare increase itself. The current 2 cny flat fare per trip would need to increase to more than 3 cny flat fare per trip15.  Cut bus services. Assuming, very optimistically, that costs can be reduced in line with service cuts and at no loss in passenger revenues16 then service levels would need to be reduced by over 30 %.  ‘Normalise’ Government Funding. This option would recognise the Bus Company’s financial position for what it really is, i.e.:- o the 50 M cny it receives from Government is insufficient to cover the operating deficit; and

15 Distance based fares could be introduced, but the average fare increase required would still be much the same. Longer distance travellers would bear the brunt of any distance-based fare regime and increase. 16 This is an implausibly optimistic scenario – but serves to paint a picture of the best case scenario for eliminating the recurrent deficit from service cuts alone.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 54 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

o being a Government entity it cannot go out of business and ultimately the full deficit needs to be covered by Government. 209. If the normalise option alone were adopted, explicit Government funding would need to increase from 50 M cny pa to 160 M cny pa, but the otherwise remaining deficit of 110 M cny would reduce to zero. In other words, the sum payable by the Government would remain unchanged, but the Bus Company would have much more budget certainty and reduced financial stress from that increased certainty. This revised funding arrangement would set the scene for a long term, sustainable and adjustable (for changes in fare levels and service levels) funding regime for urban bus services in Xiangyang. Table 5.1: Bus Company Deficit Position and Remedial Funding Options Item Eliminate Shortfall Current Increase Fares Cut Costs / Cut Services 'Normalise' Funding CNY (M) % of Gross CNY (M) % of Gross % Change CNY (M) % of Gross % Change CNY (M) % of Gross % Change Passenger Revenue 200 56% 310 86% 55% 200 80% 0% 200 56% 0% Government Funding 50 14% 50 14% 0% 50 20% 0% 160 44% NA Shortfall (Government) 110 31% 0 0% -100% 0 0% -100% 0 0% NA Gross Operating Costs 360 360 0% 250 -31% 360 0%

Total Govt Funding 160 44% 50 14% -69% 50 20% -69% 160 44% 0% Source: Current CNY (M) values taken from notes from meeting with the Bus Company April 2019.

210. Significant fare increases and or service level reductions should not be implemented without a thorough appreciation of their impacts on the effectiveness of the passenger transport network. 211. It is therefore proposed that, at least in the immediate to short term, the Xiangyang Government provide full deficit funding to the Bus Company. As a pre-requisite for the full deficit funding the Bus Company would need to satisfy the Xiangyang Government that it is conducting its business to an acceptably high level of efficiency. 212. The Xiangyang Government would then, as a matter of urban passenger transport priority:  Review existing urban bus service levels, taking into account demand, and require the Bus Company to adjust services accordingly. Xiangyang Government would then incur the amended deficit (either higher or lower than present, depending on the required service changes): and  Review passenger fares and develop a long terms fares policy. That fares policy would include (for example):- o the minimum percentage of gross operating costs to be covered through passenger fares (and hence the maximum percentage of gross operating costs to be covered directly by Xiangyang Government); o fare structures (e.g. flat fares or distance-based fares); o maximum fares for any single journey; o transfer and / or intermodal fares; and

Transport Plan (2020) Page 55 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

o appropriate ticketing systems to implement the adopted fares policy.

213. In due course (once suitable governance and institutional arrangements were in place) the Xiangyang Government could then seek competitive tenders for the operation of the required bus services. This would ensure that unit resource costs charged to Government were no higher than market levels and also ensure that the business is conducted to an acceptably high level of efficiency. It would be premature to proceed to a competitive tender process at this point in time.

3. Harmonizing Service Levels with Funding Levels

214. Xiangyang Government funding for urban bus services is an established fact and is supported in principle by this project17. A funding regime needs to be established that is sustainable, well understood, and covers the difference between passenger (and other) revenues received by the Bus Company and the costs of efficiently operating the required bus services18. 215. The process for harmonizing service levels to be operated by the Bus Company and funding to be paid to the Bus Company would be as follows: 1. Government would develop a set of service level guidelines specifying, in principle, the level of service that should be provided in the urban areas (different levels of service may be warranted for different urban areas, for example); 2. The service level guidelines would also include passenger loading standards (when services should be increased due to high demand, when services should be reduced due to low demand) and also maximum fare levels (by distance and by passenger type (children, adults, elderly)); 3. The resultant service level guidelines would then be used as the basis for Government to plan the target urban bus service network; 4. The target urban bus service network would then be overlaid over the current urban bus network; 5. The gaps between the target network (item 3 above) and the current network (item 4 above) would be identified; 6. Government would then require the Bus Company to submit its costings for the operation of the required urban bus network and negotiations would take place to ensure that the costs submitted were fair and reasonable; 7. Once agreed, those costings would form the basis for ongoing payments from Government to the Bus Company;

17 Government financial support for urban public transport services is the norm world-wide, even in the most market- lead of economies. 18 Revenue risk may (nett cost contract) or may not (gross cost contract) remain with the operator. There are pluses and minuses to either approach, and the preferred option would require further consideration.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 56 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

8. If service levels on contracted services were adjusted post contract award, then the price paid to the operator would also adjust upwards or downwards, as applicable19; 9. Service level guidelines would be published for all to see in a simple but comprehensive document. 216. The service level guidelines would be updated from time to time by Government. In particular the service level guidelines would be amended so as to be in harmony with Government budget constraints. In this way, if Government were to (say) reduce funding for contracted urban bus services the likely level of service reduction would be readily apparent to users and the Bus Company alike – before it happened. 217. This approach is consistent with the approach proposed for regional bus services (as provided by the private bus operators) other than:  For regional bus services market contestability on a route by route basis is proposed for non-commercial services;  For urban (Bus Company) services market contestability is not proposed at this stage but could be introduced later.

4. Xiangyang Government Organisational Arrangements for Urban and Regional Public Transport

218. A representation of the Xiangyang Government organisational chart is shown in Figure 5.4:

Figure 5.4: Organization Chart for Xiangyang Municipal Transport Bureau Source: TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001), Inception Report,

19 Contracts of this type need to include a price variation mechanism for service changes. Such mechanisms are common and are not necessarily complicated.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 57 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

219. We would observe that whilst a well-considered organisational structure is by definition better than a poorly considered organisational structure, it is ultimately the calibre and cooperation of personnel within any structure that is of prime importance. In other words, the right people in a poor structure will almost always outperform the wrong people in a good structure. 220. Given this weak knowledge position regarding both the structure details and personnel skill details it would be inappropriate for this report to propose specific changes to this organisation chart.20 Table 5.2 is provided as a higher-level checklist against which the organisation chart could be assessed (by Xiangyang Government and / or in any subsequent project) to ensure that the organisation chart meets key requirements. This focuses, naturally, on Government transport activities and responsibilities. Other important Government activities that are not transport-specific, such as city budgeting, finances, financial control, non-transport related policing and so on are not shown in this table. provides an indicative organisation chart for the checklist activities in Table 5.3. Table 5.2 Required Key Government Transport Responsibilities and Activities – Suggested Checklist Key Key Activities Responsibility Long Term  Develop long term land use and transport strategies for the city Strategic  Long term zoning – industry, commercial, residential locations and Planning capacities Department  Develop long term high level road network (highways, expressways, major arterial roads)  Develop long term strategic public transport plans (passenger rail, bus corridors, other modes)  Designate future transport corridors (passenger and freight) and preserve those for future development  Make use of strategic land use and planning software to model alternative land use / transport planning scenarios to develop sound long term strategies  Set target completion dates for required infrastructure  Obtain Government approval of preferred strategy / strategies Infrastructure  Undertake detailed planning and design in accordance with the Planning and approved long term land use and transport strategies (roads, Design bridges, land developments, local roads, road freight corridors, Department bus ways, urban rail systems, etc.)  Prioritise works to allow target completion dates to be met Infrastructure  Prepare and award contracts for required infrastructure contracts Construction  Specify maximum road infringement permitted Department  Monitor contractor performance Public  Undertake detailed planning of public transport services in Transport accordance with the approved long term land use and transport

20 Plus also the inevitable upheaval that any change to an organization’s structure can lead to.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 58 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Planning strategies (develop service level guidelines, service levels, fare Department levels, route design, appropriate modes, etc.)  Collect and analyse relevant data (demand and supply)  Use transport planning tactical tools / computer models to match supply and demand Public  Monitor public transport services to ensure services operated are Transport consistent with public transport planning requirements Monitoring  Urban buses and regional buses and Procurement  Develop and award contracts to procure any required ‘gap filling’ Department services  Approve payments to bus operators consistent with any Government-approved contracts Traffic  Ensure that road users comply with required standards and laws Enforcement  Issue traffic violations Department  Issue parking violations  Enforce construction road infringement requirements Demand  Operate the demand management system infrastructure Management  Assess road demand and congestion and propose any changes Department necessary to continue to properly manage demand (infrastructure and or charging system changes)  Issue charges and ensure all payments are received Urban Bus  Operate the urban buses in accordance with contractual and Operations funding obligations Department  Propose service improvement options as necessary

Figure 5.5: Indicative Organisation Chart for Identified Transport Responsibilities and Activities

Transport Plan (2020) Page 59 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

5. Need for Government to Act as Transport Co-Ordinator

221. Market economies rely heavily on personal and corporate self-interest. It is personal self-interest that encourages individuals to take risk and establish businesses. It is corporate self-interest that stimulates continual product improvement to better meet customer needs and protect their own market. 222. Self-interest naturally exists in public transport demand and supply. 223. Individual travel decisions are based on self-interest (how long will it take, how much will it cost, when is the best time to travel, should I go by car or by bus, etc.). 224. Corporate self-interest naturally makes businesses likely to resist change where it is not in their own best interest: In Xiangyang for example:  Regional bus operators are concerned about revenue loss from high speed rail and any additional costs they will have to incur to ‘feed’ passengers to and from those new train services;  The Bus Company is concerned that any new light rail system or urban rail system – not being part of their corporate entity – will attract passengers from their bus services;  Taxi operators are concerned about the increased competition from car-share operators;  Most all public transport operators are concerned about the rapid increase in the number of share-bikes available. 225. Government intervention in individual and corporate life is a well established principle. Indeed it is the very reason for the existence of Governments in the first place. 226. This means that while Government should take into account the views of affected stakeholders it is Government that should be the final arbiter of any decision. Where the Government makes a transport decision that adversely impacts on individuals or businesses then Government should also consider whether some form of compensation is required. Sometimes the answer will be yes, sometimes no. 227. But the real point is that even in a market economy Government has an important role in ensuring that competing public transport supplier self-interests do not stand in the way of transport improvements that are beneficial for the city as a whole.

6. Traffic Management (Improved Driver Behavior)

228. This sub-section on traffic management has been deliberately written from the somewhat narrow perspective of improving bus speeds and reducing passenger travel times in Xiangyang. This section focuses on on-road driver behaviour and is not intended to discuss measures to limit the growth of motor vehicle usage. (The subject of limiting the growth of motor vehicle usage is covered in the next sub-section.) 229. Driver behaviour is reasonably orderly in Xiangyang with most drivers ‘doing the right thing’. Drivers are able to ‘get away’ with doing the wrong thing (not keeping within their own marked lane, changing lanes without indicating, crossing the centre line in the face of oncoming traffic, etc) as a combined consequence of:

Transport Plan (2020) Page 60 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

1. The very real tolerance shown by drivers to each other and the ethos of the importance of avoiding accidents rather than of preserving road space rights; 2. The relatively low traffic volumes or, where traffic volume are higher, the relatively low vehicle speeds; and 3. The apparent low level of proactive traffic behaviour enforcement. 230. Poor driver behaviour can and does slow bus services, since buses are much less manoeuvrable than general traffic and cannot dodge other vehicles so easily. 231. A three-part approach is proposed to improving on road driver behaviour: 232. Part 1: Driver behavior campaign. A rolling programme of television, radio and roadside / banner driver behaviour announcements targeting key areas of poor driver behaviour. Example campaign target subjects could include:  “Please drive within your own lane”;  “Please do not cross the centre line of the road”;  “Please do not drive on the wrong side of the road”;  “Please do not walk on the road”;  Please be considerate of cyclists and pedestrians;  “Please do not drive on the footpath”; and  “Please do not park on the footpath”. 233. Part 2: Traffic police training programme. Traffic police need to be aware of the driver standard that is being aimed for. Without a strong appreciation of the target driver behaviour outcome they will be in a weak position with regards to enforcement. That training programme could be undertaken by Chinese traffic police from a city that has already achieved relatively high standards of driver behaviour (e.g. Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong) or from international experts who are familiar with driver behaviour in China. 234. It would be impractical to train all traffic police at once, so a program to train a select number of traffic police, who can then continue to train their colleagues is likely to be the most practical approach for this traffic police training programme. 235. Part 3: Enforcement. Enforcement of required driver behaviour can begin once sufficient traffic police have been trained and once the driver behaviour campaign is underway. Initially this enforcement would be aimed at reinforcing the need for improved driver behaviour so financial penalties would be relatively light. As time goes on penalties for poor driver behaviour would be increased.

7. Proposed Demonstration Areas

236. Whilst this regime to improve driver behavious would apply across Xiangyang there would be merit in identifying a small number of ‘demonstration’ areas in Xiangyang to focus on to demonstrate the traffic benefits of improved driver behaviour.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 61 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

a) Demonstration Area 1 237. One proposed area is Changzheng Rd between Danjiang Rd and Hongguang Rd. This is a four lane (two lanes in each direction) road that is relatively heavily trafficked by cars, buses, taxis, two-wheeled vehicles and pedestrians. There are a number of side roads and at times vehicles turning left off Changzheng Road to access these side roads block traffic on Changzheng Rd in both directions. Buses are slowed down. 238. There are numerous businesses and restaurants along Changzheng Rd, generating considerable traffic and parking. Cars parked on the street slow buses. Cars parked and blocking the footpath mean pedestrians are inclined to walk on the road. This slows general traffic and buses too are slowed down.

Bicycle users parking share-bikes in inappropriate places and blocking pedestrian movements, or leaving share-bikes on roads, is causing public concern. To date little has been done to address this problem. The solution may be quite simple. Government inspectors would be appointed. Any share bike seen by a Government inspector to be left in the wrong place would be recorded by that Government inspector and the details would be sent to the share bike company electronically. The share bike company would be required to respond electronically within a short time period with the details of the previous user of that share bike. The Government would issue an infringement / fine notice to that share-bike user through the same fines system as used for driver infringements. The cost of the Government inspectors would be self-funding through fines revenues. Surplus revenues would be available for use by Governmentt.

239. Improved off-street parking will be an important part of ensuring improved driver behaviour and for gaining local business support for this proposed pilot area. There is a large and largely unused concreted rail freight yard with access off Changzheng Rd – this would make an ideal location for off-street parking for those who currently park on the footpath or on the road itself. To minimise traffic conflict this access would probably need to be signalised, or ‘right in, right out’ rules need to be applied and enforced. With the availability of this off- street parking, ‘No Parking’ signs would be erected along Changzheng Rd, applying to the road and to most, if not all, of the footpaths. Traffic police would enforce the ‘No Parking’ rules.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 62 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 5.6: Proposed Traffic Improvement Demonstration Area No 1

240. Figure 5.6 shows the location of this proposed pilot area and also the location of the current (largely unused) rail freight yard.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 63 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

b) Demonstration Area 2 241. The New City has broad streets, relatively little traffic and good quality pedestrian footpaths. The footpaths are generally free from parked cars, pedestrians generally walk on the footpaths and buses are generally not slowed by inappropriate road user behaviour. But in some areas cars can already be seen parked on footpaths and pedestrians are forced to walk on roadways.

Figure 5.7: Proposed Traffic Improvement Demonstration Area 2

242. It will be much easier to achieve good road user behaviour in the long term if behaviour is not allowed to deteriorate in the short term. The New City would therefore be an ideal place for a pilot project to prevent road user behaviour lapse. c) Demonstration Area 3 243. Within the built-up city centre there are a number of now-abandoned or seldom-used single track rail freight corridors. As has been done in other cities21 these corridors could be converted to create attractive and useful inner city walkways. This would be relatively low cost and would provide significant urban amenity improvements. These corridors could be made ‘Pedestrian Only’ and two-wheeled vehicles would be prohibited and prevented from using them. This would provide pedestrians on these corridors a welcome respite from the constant barrage of ‘zooming’ two-wheelers.

244. Figure 5.8: shows a scene from Changchong Rd, Xiangyang22 (left) and of the High Line, New York (right).

21 For example the ‘The High Line’, New York, USA. 22 This line is used by one coal train per day (typically) to serve the city’s boiler for centralised central heating.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 64 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 5.8: Urban Redevelopment Potential of Abandoned Rail Freight Lines Source: Internet search for ‘New York High Line’

C. Long Distance and Regional Bus Services

1. Regional Passenger Services

245. Intermediate distance regional transport is provided by road transport – minibuses, coaches, sleeper coaches, etc. These regional bus services are operated by commercial private bus companies with no direct financial support from Government. This means that only commercially viable services operate and continue to operate: persons living in regional areas where commercial services are not viable are unlikely to have any connecting regional bus service. 246. There are two long-distance bus companies operating from Xiangyang. The largest terminal was built in the 1970s by government and then sold to a Hong Kong investor in 2004. It operates 300 buses and serves 16 provinces but most of its routes are 300 km or less. The company is profitable carrying 3.5 million outgoing passengers (with a similar number returning) in 2015 but has been losing market share so that in 2018 it carried only 2.5 million each way. It is losing market share to private vehicles and the railway. These are both faster than the bus but the railway is about twice as expensive, which says that rising incomes result in passengers choosing speed and comfort over cost. 247. Bus passengers are able to purchase tickets with their mobile phones but there is no reservation system. The company is trying to attract more tour groups in order to gain more business. This is a growing market with about 1,183 tour groups that brought 0.4 million tourists who stayed overnight in the city in 2018. 248. The second long-distance bus company is a subsidiary to a government owned company that has a sister company that operates the urban buses. The terminal was built in 1994 and upgraded in 2014. It has a smaller fleet than the privately owned company and operates primarily within the Province.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 65 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

249. One of the transport services issues is that outlying areas within the Prefecture are not being served as well as their urban neighbors. The urban bus company has developed a databased for its urban customers based on mobile phone usage and would like to extend the coverage to the greater Prefecture. As part of this TA, an important component will be to develop a mobile phone database that enables traffic forecasting, and this could include working with the urban bus company to extend coverage to the entire Prefecture. See the discussion under Urban below. 250. There is a third large new bus terminal that is owned by the Fanchan District government and located in the area designated for manufacturers and logistics operators— about 20 km west of the existing city center. It will serve both urban areas near the terminal and provide long-distance buses for destinations in the western part of the Prefecture. It will begin operations in the next few months. 251. Within Xiangyang city the terminus arrangements for regional bus services seem somewhat disjointed. There are range of different long distance departure and arrival points, including in the general vicinity of Xiangyang rail station and close by Xiangyang Dong rail station. XYHSS is also being constructed to accommodate regional bus services. The regional buses themselves are in relatively poor condition as compared with the urban bus fleet – broken windows, dented bodies and poor internal condition not being uncommon. 252. There is scope for considerable improvement to the regional bus service supply.

2. Policy Position

253. Xiangyang Government has a policy that all towns in Xiangyang should be served by regional bus services. It is the responsibility of each of the subordinate local governments to ensure that such services are provided. The measures that subordinate local governments can take to achieve this appear limited given that there is little to no appetite for government funding to procure non-commercial regional bus services.

3. Current Operations

254. Regional bus services in Xiangyang are operated commercially by private sector operators, under licence to the Xiangyang Government, with no explicit financial support from Government. 255. Xiangyang Government adopts a light-handed approach to regulating these regional services, imposing few restrictions on the ability of an operator to be granted a licence – provided that the applicant:  Can show that the granting of the licence would not have a detrimental impact on the finances of any other regional bus service operating along or close to the proposed service; and  Agrees to charge passenger fares within the Government-set fare sum: Government sets a ‘standard’ fare for services and operators are permitted to charge +/- 30% of this ‘standard’ fare. 256. The standard of vehicle (cleanliness etc.) does not appear, in practice, to be a significant factor in the granting or retention of a regional bus service licence.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 66 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

257. In the case of an operator finding that they can no longer operate a licenced service (due to poor route viability, for example) the operator may withdraw from the service with little to no financial penalty. That would then result in:  former users of that cancelled route no longer having a bus service; or  a different regional bus operator identifying a market opportunity and obtaining a licence to reinstate that service. 258. Once a licence is granted, the operator can increase services or decrease services, as necessary to meet demand and to maintain financial viability. 259. From discussions with Government and private sector stakeholders regional bus services have been markedly improved in recent years and now operate to nearly all towns and cities in Xiangyang. The views of passengers or regional residents have not been canvassed in this project.

4. Current and Future Viability

260. The regional bus system is now under significant financial stress. This financial stress began around 2014 and has worsened every year since. The two main reasons for this financial stress, as advised by industry stakeholders, are:  The increasing number of high speed trains that are attracting passengers away from the regional bus services; and

 The rapidly increasing levels of motorisation23 261. One of the major providers of regional bus services in Xiangyang has advised that since 2014 passenger fare revenues have declined by 9% p.a. year on year – equivalent to a 40% overall revenue decrease over the four year period. 262. This financial situation is extremely unlikely to be specific to Xiangyang and is almost undoubtedly occurring across China. 263. Many regional bus operators in Xiangyang are looking to introduce innovative solutions to counter this revenue loss and financial threat, including:  Purchase of lower cost minibuses to offer more ‘boutique’ services;  Reducing fares to attract more passengers;  Carrying parcel freight (using excess passenger capacity);  Implementing a booking system; and  Diversifying into real estate. 264. As more and more high speed rail services are introduced, as personal incomes increase, and as motor vehicle ownership rates increase it can be reasonably expected that regional bus services will come under ever increasing financial pressure. It is unlikely that all regional bus operators will be able to make up for the passenger revenue loss through

23 As noted previously, motor vehicle ownership rates in Xiangyang have increased by 23% p.a. year on year since 2014.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 67 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) innovation or diversification. As a result if Government does nothing regional bus service levels are likely to decline – contrary to Government policy.

5. Government Response and Mitigation Options

265. Xiangyang Government has two main options in light of the worsening financial plight of regional bus operators. These are:  Do nothing, and let market forces prevail. Passengers will choose to use whatever mode most suits them, taking into account time and price. Under this option the downward trend in regional bus patronage will continue, passenger revenues will fall, services will (inevitably) be withdrawn and those without alternative travel means will lose their accessibility to other centres. This would be socially inequitable – Government intervenes in the urban bus service market to ensure that desirable but non-commercial service are operated so why should rural residents and their travel needs be treated any differently?  Intervene in the market. Intervention could take many forms, including but not limited to a mix of:  Fares relaxation: This could include allowing operators greater latitude to change fares (e.g. introduce a fares ceiling, but allow operators to charge any fare up to that ceiling);  Reduced regulations: This would reduce any regulations that impacted adversely on any regional bus operator’s ability to introduce innovative services, such as boutique mini bus operations.24  Service procurement: This would involve Government procuring all or some regional bus services from market suppliers.

266. Fares relaxation and / or reduced regulations alone – whilst supported - are unlikely to yield outcomes necessary to stave off continued operator financial stress and ultimate withdrawal from services. 267. On balance the Xiangyang Government should be prepared to intervene to ensure that socially desirable regional bus services continue to operate, even if not financially viable.

6. Proposed Form of Market Intervention

268. The proposed form of market intervention recognises China’s rapid move towards a market economy, whilst recognising the responsibility of Government to ensure the welfare of its people, particularly the disadvantaged. 269. The proposed market intervention would work as follows:

24 There is the suggestion from Xiangyang stakeholders that their ability to operate innovative services is limited by Government concern about consequential adverse impacts on other market players, such as taxis which are also suffering from the increase in ‘share-bike’ availability and other car-share competitors.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 68 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

1. Government would develop a set of service level guidelines specifying, in principle, the level of service that should be provided to regional areas (different levels of service for different sized areas, for example); 2. The service level guidelines would also include passenger loading standards (when services should be increased due to high demand, when services should be reduced due to low demand) and also maximum fare levels (by distance and by passenger type (children, adults, elderly)); 3. The resultant service level guidelines would then be the basis for Government to plan the target regional bus service network; 4. The target regional bus service network would then be overlaid over the current regional bus network; 5. The gaps between the target network (item 3 above) and the current network (item 4 above) would be identified; 6. Government would then call for tenders from the open market for regional bus operators to submit their tenders for the operation of the required ‘gap-filling’ regional bus services for a finite period (maybe 5 – 10 years); 7. The tenderer that submitted the lowest price at an acceptable quality (vehicle standard, etc.) would be awarded the contract and would be paid in accordance with their tendered price (with monthly instalments, inflation adjusted); 8. If service levels on contracted services needed to be adjusted post contract award, then the price paid to the operator would also adjust upwards or downwards, as applicable25; 9. In general the Government would then not issue a regional bus licence to any other regional service that would be likely to have a material adverse effect on that contracted operator’s patronage or revenue; 10. Service level guidelines would be published for all to see in a simple but comprehensive document. 270. If in future existing commercial services were withdrawn, then replacement services would be procured through the above process, provided that the replacement services were necessary as assessed against the prevailing service level guidelines. 271. The service level guidelines would be updated from time to time by Government. In particular the service level guidelines would be amended so as to be in harmony with Government budget constraints. In this way, if Government were to (say) reduce funding for contracted regional bus services the likely level of service reduction would be readily apparent to users and regional bus service operators alike. 272. This approach is consistent with the approach proposed for urban bus services (as provided by the Bus Company) other than:

25 Contracts of this type need to include a price variation mechanism for service changes. Such mechanisms are common and are not necessarily complicated.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 69 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

 For regional bus services market contestability on a route by route basis is proposed for non-commercial services;  For urban (Bus Company) services, deficit funding is proposed. Market contestability could be introduced later (as discussed previously).

7. Social Equity and Government Expenditure Outcomes

273. The service level guideline approach proposed above will:  Improve social equity: It will no longer be a private sector regional bus operator who ultimately decides whether a regional area and regional population receives a regional bus service or not;  Ensure efficient use of Government money: By procuring ‘gap-filling’ (non-commercial) regional bus services through competitive tender the Government can be reasonably confident that it will be paying no more than is necessary for the provision of each contracted service;  Retain flexibility: Government can amend the service level guidelines as necessary to match changing social circumstances and budget constraints; and  Will be sustainable.

D. Connector Service Strategy

274. As the city expands outwards and travel distances and travel times increase, it will be important to have a simple, coherent and rapid series of public passenger transport connector links joining important passenger attractors and generators (passenger nodes).

Transport Plan (2020) Page 70 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

275. The Xiangyang Government is mindful of this need for passenger transport connector services in future and has prepared plans for a strategic connector network, shown in Firgure 5.9.

Figure 5.9: Proposed Connector Network

1. Connector Passenger Transport Services

276. On review, the alignments of these strategic connector routes appear sound. There are connections between the key passenger transport nodes, including the new XYHSS, the airport, Xiangyang Dong station, Xiangyang station, the New City, the industrial areas towards the north of the city and the areas around the ancient city centres. The strategic corridors include stations where corridors intersect. If well designed these stations would allow for easy passenger transfers between lines, thus opening up further passenger travel opportunities. 277. Urban bus services (not shown on Error! Reference source not found.) could then provide further passenger penetration to and from urban areas around each stop. Conceptually this strategic network design can be compared favourably with both the London Underground and the Paris Metro. 278. For a number of reasons this strategic connector network – presented in the above figure as an underground metro system - should be regarded as a long term goal rather than a short term project. The main reasons for this view include:

Transport Plan (2020) Page 71 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

 Central Government’s announcement that local governments must not commit to metro construction until such time as City population reaches 3 million persons26. Xiangyang’s current population is in the order of 1.6 million persons. In the past 10 years China’s population has grown at a rate of 0.56% pa (compounding). At that rate Xiangyang’s population would not reach 3.0 million within the foreseeable future. Even if Xiangyang’s population growth rate were to be 2% p.a. (around four times the national average) Xiangyang’s population would still not reach 3.0 million until mid this century;  Even if Central Government were to relax its metro population threshold it is unlikely that a high capital cost subway rail system would be justifiable at this point in time. For the already developed urban area there are still lower cost options that could be implemented to overcome current public transport problems. This also applies to the New City. For the New City there is another consideration that favours deferment. By definition travel demand forecasts are not necessarily correct:- they are after all just that - forecasts. Constructing a high capital cost urban passenger network based on uncertain forecasts of future demand in a developing area opens up the very considerable risk of placing corridor construction and investment in sub-optimal locations and / or alignments. Given the very nature of subway or elevated systems, such mistakes cannot be corrected easily or cheaply;  Given the high capital costs of constructing subway or elevated systems, it is sound financial management to not incur such costs earlier than is necessary (taking into account demand, environmental, congestion, uncertainty and all other relevant factors); and  Even if a decision were made now to construct some sort of subway and / or elevated passenger transport connector system it would take many years before such a system could be even partially operational.

279. As noted above an underground Metro or LRT network should therefore be regarded as a strategy for long term implementation once the key issues noted above have been overcome. As such the Xiangyang’s proposed connector network design can be supported at the strategic level, for implementation in the long term (and subject to future revision as necessary). 280. Other options need to be developed to meet the short to medium term and to bridge the time gap between the present and when the Xiangyang Government’s long term connector strategy can be fully implemented. 281. A staged strategy comprising connector route development and preferred vehicle mode(s) is therefore needed. As part of the proposed connector system staging Xiangyang Government needs to take necessary planning (and other) actions to preserve future corridors for development / construction at the appropriate time.

26 There is a second caveat regarding city GDP. Xiangyang passes that GDP threshold so this second caveat is not a constraint for Xiangyang.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 72 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

2. Proposed Short to Medium Term Connector Strategy

282. For reasons already stated Xiangyang’s long term strategic metro-based corridor network cannot be implemented at this point in time, However, given the new developments, it will be important for some form of connector passenger transport services to be developed in the immediate to short term (for subsequent progression towards the long term strategy at the appropriate time). 283. The short to medium term connector strategy proposed in this paper can therefore be regarded as an initial and partial implementation of Xiangyang Government’s long term connector strategy. In this regard it should not be regarded as being a contradictory strategy but rather the beginnings of the long term strategy. 284. The two main differences between this proposed short to medium term strategy and the long terms strategy are as follows:  Initially there would be fewer strategic connector corridors; and  Corridors would be at-grade, with significantly lower capital constructions costs, significantly lower vehicle purchase and operating costs, and with significantly lower construction costs (as compared to a fully-fledged metro or LRT system). 285. Other aspects of this proposed staged approach also include:  A flexible strategy, able to be easily amended at relatively low cost as time goes on;  Can be implemented relatively quickly;  Connects the key transport nodes efficiently and reasonably directly;  Will establish the concept of a passenger connector network sooner rather than later and that will help establish desirable personal travel behaviour;  Operates at speeds –relative to car travel speeds – that are attractive to passengers;  Future-proofs the network for subsequent improvements over time;  Is managed – including traffic management – to allow it to operate as intended;  Is adequately funded – to allow it to operate as intended.

3. Key Nodes Served

286. As an input into developing a short to medium term connector strategy a matrix of key passenger transport nodes was developed. A subjective assessment of the relative importance of direct connections between each pair of nodes based on local knowledge, some demand data provided by the Bus Company and on-street observations. Table 5.3 presents a subjective professional assessment of the relative importance of connector services between key nodes during this staging process, in particular in the earlier years. Public transport connections to and from other locations in Xiangyang would require transferring to other required local bus services.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 73 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Table 5.3: Xiangyang Public Transport Connection ‘In Principle’ Priorities Between Key Nodes (Using New Dedicated Connector Services)

O / D Pair Xiangyang Xiangyang Xiangyang The Xiangfan XYHSS Xiangyang Nan Station Dong New Airport Area Ancient Station Area Station City City Area Area Area Area Xiangyang Nan 4 2-3 2-3 1 1-2 1 4 Station Area Xiangyang Station 4 1 1 1-2 1 1 Area Xiangyang Dong 4 1 1 2-3 2-3 Station Area The New 4 1 1 1 City Area Xiangfan 4 3 1-2 Airport XYHSS 4 1 Area Xiangyang Ancient 4 City Area Note: Implementation timing and mode to be staged, taking into account public transport policy and passenger demand. Key: 1 = Very important (and therefore requires a direct no-transfer service). 2 = Quite important (and may be provided with a maximum of one transfer). 3 = Not Important (may require more than one transfer). 4 = Local services would serve this origin / destination need. =Refer to unshaded section of table for this origin / destination pair.

4. Overview of Short to Medium Term Connector Corridors

287. Based on the Table 5.3 connection priority requirements, Figure 5.10: presents the short term (0-5 years) connector strategy. Explanatory text is provided below. 288. This initial strategy comprises no-transfer limited stop connector services between the identified ‘very important’ nodes (with connections to and from urban bus services not shown). The various connector corridors would form an ‘inner ring’ and an ‘outer ring’ to provide high quality services across Xiangyang, both north - south (both directions) and east - west (both directions). Additional connector services would be added to and from the airport – once air services and demand increase. 289. Connector services would comprise rail and road-based modes with suitable priority measures. The proposed connector services are described in more detail below, though still at the strategic level.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 74 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 5.10: Short to Medium Term Indicative Connector Network

5. Urban Rail Connector Services (Route CS 1)

290. This service would provide a part of the east - west ‘outer’ connector ring. 291. The reduction in the number of long-distance passenger trains using the existing conventional line through Xiangyang is expected to provide sufficient track capacity for the operation of an urban rail service. Remaining long distance trains and freight trains would inter-operate with the urban trains with judicious timetabling (and the potential for a greater portion of the freight trains to operate through Xiangyang at night time – when urban trains would be operating at much reduced frequencies or not at all). This proposed urban rail service would operate some 30 kms (one-way distance) between a new Xijia station (south of the unused Xiangyang Nan station) and a new station in the New City (south east of the existing Xiangyang Dong station). 292. The key connectors served by this urban rail would include:  Xijiachi Station. This would be a new station in the immediate vicinity of the Xijia Botanic Gardens. This is a very significant passenger destination with many thousands of daily visitors – especially on weekends. New passenger service sidings would be needed off the main line (assuming that freight and long distance trains were to still operate on the existing rail corridor).  Xiangyang Nan station. This station, located just to the east of the ancient walled city, is currently unused. Ideally this station would be relocated some 2-3 kms further south and closer to the Inner Ring Road. The relocated Xiangyang Nan station would then provide for passenger interchange between the proposed southern arcs of the east - west connectors and between this part of the city and the new XYHSS and also the

Transport Plan (2020) Page 75 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

New City. Ideally park ‘n ride car parking should be provided at this relocated station, along with local bus service connections.  Xiangyang station. The existing train station. Much improved passenger access and egress to Changzheng Rd could and should be provided by a pedestrian overbridge linking into the unused (and ideally to-be-redeveloped) rail freight siding yard off Changzheng Rd.  Xiangyang Dong station. The existing train station.  Xiangyang New City station. This is a proposed new station further east of Xiangyang Dong station on the southern side of Tang Bai River and in close proximity to the New City. Local bus services would connect this proposed new station to the New City itself. Park ‘n ride car parking should be provided at this station also. 293. Additional intermediate stations would be developed between the above key node stations so as to increase passenger catchment for this new urban rail service. The additional stations would be at opportune locations about midway between the above-named key stations. 294. With a one-way distance between the two end terminals of around 30 kms, an average operating speed of 60 km/hr and a notional 10 minute headway at peak times, this service would require six operating train sets at peak times. For efficiency reasons it is envisaged that these would be electric multiple units (EMUs) able to be driven from either end without the need for terminal manoeuvring. 295. It is recognised that procurement of suitable EMU rolling stock incurs some considerable cost – but that cost will be much lower than the cost of constructing a metro line and procuring metro trains.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 76 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

296. It will be important to verify that there is sufficient track capacity for the operation of the proposed urban passenger rail services along with the freight trains and long distance passenger trains. For this reason a project is proposed to assess the feasibility of this concept. (see text box below for outline of proposed feasibility project).

Feasibility Project Outline – Review of Track Capacity for LRT Operations Objective: To quickly assess whether is now, or will be with the opening of the new XYHSS, sufficient spare track capacity to operate an urban passenger service on the existing train lines within Xiangyang (as described in section 2.4.1 above). Current Rail Operations: Review current train operations (e.g. train diagrams and network diagrams) to obtain a sound appreciation of all current train paths (passenger and freight, both in-service and positioning). Future Rail Operations: Update the ‘current operations’ appreciation for post XYHSS opening (e.g. fewer passenger train movements through the current network). Rail Network Infrastructure: Obtain a sound appreciation of the rail infrastructure within the area of the proposed urban passenger operations. Scope for LRT Operations: Assess whether there is sufficient track capacity for a 10- minute frequency urban passenger service, both before and after the opening of the XYHSS. If not, identify what infrastructure or service changes would be required to allow that level of LRT operations. Project Deliverable: An easily understood technical report that addresses each of the matters identified above. Feasibility Project Timing: To be completed within 6 weeks of project approval to proceed.

297. Figure 5.11: shows the urban rail corridor alignment, existing stations and indicative location of additional stations.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 77 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 5.11: Urban Rail Corridor and Indicative Stations Key Existing train passenger stations (2) Indicative location of new intermediate stations (5) Indicative location of new terminal stations (2)

6. Outer Ring Connector Services (Route CS 2)

298. In addition to the rail portion described above, the outer ring connector network would also be provided by road-based vehicles (but not duplicating the above-described urban rail service). This outer ring would connect the established parts of Xiangyang (both north and south of the Han River) with the New City and the XYHSS. This ‘outer ring’ would also connect with other connector services, such as the urban rail connector at / near Xiangyang Nan rail station. 299. The northern portion of the outer ring connector would operate from Xiangyang rail station, along Daqing East Rd, Hankong Rd, Xiang Dong rail station, across the new bridge spanning Tang Bai River, through the main streets of the New City, via (precise alignment to be determined) and would end at the new XYHSS. 300. The southern portion of the outer ring connector corridor would then continue from the XYHSS along the Inner Ring Rd, over the Dongjjn Bridge, past the (proposed and relocated) Xiangyang Nan rail station and then via either the Han River rail and road bridge or the Xiangfan Hanjiang Chonghong Bridge and the city road network to terminate at Xiangyang rail station. 301. Services would operate in both directions at attractively high peak period frequencies – between every 5 and 10 minutes at peak periods initially - with potential to increase frequencies as and when demand increases.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 78 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

302. As can be seen, this short term ‘outer ring’ connector service is consistent with the aspects of Xiangyang’s long term strategic network (as shown above in Figure 5.11: ). 303. In the short to medium term these connector services would be operated by high capacity rubber-tyred ‘IRT’ vehicles operating on street and with extensive vehicle priority treatments. The rationale for the proposed vehicle type and the proposed vehicle priority measures are discussed in the Proposed Connector Modes section of this paper.

7. Inner Ring Connector Services (Route CS 3)

304. The inner ring connector network would provide an even more direct connection between the established Xiangyang City and the New City. 305. The northern portion of the inter ring connector would operate from Xiangyang rail station then head almost due eastwards along new east – west link (currently being constructed) and directly into the centre of the New City. From there it would travel southwards through a direct route to the Inner Ring Road. 306. The southern portion of this connector service would operate along the Inner Ring Rd then pass over the Dongjin Bridge, past the (proposed and relocated) Xiang Nan rail station and then via either the Han River rail and road bridge or the Xiangfan Hanjiang Chonghong bridge and the city road network to terminate at Xiangyang rail station. 307. An alternative would be for this service to not cross the river towards Xiangyang rail station but to penetrate further west through the residential southern side of the Han River. This is a matter of more detailed design and would be subject to more detailed assessment of the relative merits of the two alignment options. 308. As for the outer connector services (CS 2) described above:  Services would operate in both directions at attractively high peak period frequencies – between every 5 and 10 minutes at peak periods initially - with potential to increase frequencies as and when demand increases;  This short term ‘outer ring’ connector service is consistent with the aspects of Xiangyang’s long term strategic network (as shown above in Figure 5.10: );  In the short to medium term these connector services would be operated by high capacity rubber-tyred ‘IRT’ vehicles operating on street and with extensive vehicle priority treatments; and  The rationale for the proposed vehicle type and the proposed vehicle priority measures are discussed further on in the Proposed Connector Modes section of this paper.

8. Airport Connector Services (Routes CS 4 and CS 5)

309. At present passenger volumes through Xiangyang Airport are relatively low (around 4,000 persons per day) consistent with the limited number of flights serving this airport. Airport runway lengthening, improved landing guidance systems and in due course a second runway are all expected (by the stakeholders) to increase passenger volumes. At present there are already bus services connecting the airport to Xiangyang – a distance of about 20 kms. These bus services take approximately 1 ¼ hrs one way at an average speed of around 16 kms / hr.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 79 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

310. Initially the proposed airport connector services would be ‘lower order’ connector services, operating at times to meet arriving and departing flights until such time as higher frequency regular services would be justified. 311. These two routes would provide relatively high speed connections between Xiangyang and the airport (Route CS 3) and between the New City and the airport (Route CS 4). In due course Route CS 4 could be extended to connect with the XYHSS if required. 312. Both of these routes would operate partly along roads served by other road-based connector services (especially the northern portion of the outer ring connector services) and would benefit from the proposed priority measures to be introduced for those other connector services. The need for additional priority measures would need to be considered between the vicinity of Xiangyang Dong rail station and the airport itself.

E. Proposed Connector Modes

313. This sub-section presents the proposed connector modes in the short term (0-5 years) to medium term (5-10 years).

1. Mode for Urban Rail Services (Route CS 1)

314. These services would be operated by double-ended electrically powered light rail trains (LRTs)27. This type of commuter train is readily available and is ‘tried and proven’ in China and elsewhere. These LRTs would run on the existing conventional lines and would be powered from the existing electric rail overhead system. Being able to be driven from either end, there would be no need to turn trains between arrival and next departure at the terminal stations at each end of the suburban operations. Train capacity can be readily increased if required by connecting LRTs into larger trains (such as two sets of 2, 3 or 4 car consists).

2. Mode for the Outer Ring (Route CS 2) and the Inner Ring (Route CS 3) services

315. As noted above metro can be excluded from consideration at this point in time. Conceptually this then leaves the following three main modal options:  Light Rail mode;  High capacity on-road mode;  Ordinary bus mode. a) Light Rail Assessment 316. By definition, in any new light alignment rail requires the laying of rail tracks, either on structure above ground, at ground level or underground. 317. Above ground operations require, of course, substantial support structures, connecting beams, elevated stations and passenger access and egress between ground level and

27 It is understood that in Xiangyang the use of the term ‘light rail transit’ (or LRT) is used to refer to a rail-based passenger transport system that operates 50% or more at ground level. Since the proposed urban rail system would operate at ground level for more than 50% of its length we therefore use the term light rail or LRT. In other jurisdictions, where other rolling stock operates on the same line as the local passenger trains, the term EMU might be more commonly used.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 80 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) elevated station. This enabling infrastructure adds a considerable and very arguably unnecessary burden to the infrastructure costs of light rail. 318. At grade construction largely avoids the costs of above ground structures but is fraught with risk. International case studies reveal that construction costs are invariably higher than anticipated and construction time is invariably longer than anticipated. This is due to a number of reasons, but the main one is the uncertainty of what is below the ground and needs to be moved in order to allow tracks to be laid at ground level. Fibre optic cables, stormwater pipes, gas pipes, electricity cables, sewer lines all need to be moved (or otherwise protected). The Sydney (Australia) light rail is a case in point. The need to move underground services has lead to very significant cost over runs and time delays. Businesses along the construction corridor have failed because shoppers have not wanted to spend their money in noisy shops adjacent to ongoing construction. The Government is being threatened with legal action by both the constructor and by disadvantaged businesses along the corridor. 319. Underground construction is likely to incur similar risks as noted above: expensive tunnel construction (boring or cut and cover), service relocations, underground stations and passenger access and egress. 320. Another feature of track-based systems is their inability to begin operations until the complete track system for any self-contained corridor is one hundred percent completed – even if there are no construction delays this defers the commencement of passenger carrying services. 321. Furthermore, once the significant investment has been made in laying light rail tracks, it is very difficult to amend the alignment. For light rail it needs to be right first time. In a developing environment, such as the New City, this imposes alignment selection risks. 322. Despite the above comments it must be accepted that light rail, once constructed, has one significant advantage over typical road-based urban mass passenger transport systems. That advantage is its perceived permanence. The very fact that there are steel tracks laid along a certain corridor gives users, potential users, building developers and building dwellers a sense of certainty that the light rail system will be there for the long term. This in turn may give rise to increased property values near to stations, increased public transport mode share and, possibly, reduced private motor vehicle use. 323. It is doubtful however whether the benefits noted above are likely to exceed the incremental costs of light rail over other lower cost corridor connector modes. 324. On balance, light rail should not be relied upon to deliver the required connector services in Xiangyang in a cost effective way in the short term. b) Ordinary Bus Assessment 325. Ordinary buses, as are prevalent throughout Xiangyang, are tried and proven and might be able to provide the required connector services in the very short term. 326. They main problems that we envisage in operating ordinary buses on the connector network include:  Lack of visibility: The connector services will look – to users and potential users – very much like any ordinary bus service. This might be able to be overcome by

Transport Plan (2020) Page 81 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

adopting a special livery / paint scheme for connector service buses, but users and potential users are still likely to see ‘just another bus’ – albeit of a different colour;  Questionable status: Typically urban bus travel is regarded as being a low status mode of travel and there is no reason to believe that Xiangyang residents feel any differently. Using ordinary buses for the connector services is unlikely to change this attitude and this mode is unlikely to generate patronage in its own right;  Capacity: Xiangyang government’s proposed metro / LRT network suggests a high level of confidence in future demand. If this confidence materialises then it is very unlikely that ordinary buses could provide sufficient capacity to meet demand even in the short term (noting that the XYHSS will begin operations in late 2019 and the rapid development taking place in the New City);  Low perceived permanence: Passengers and potential passengers are well aware that bus networks can be easily changed. As a result the use of ordinary buses is considered unlikely to generate the desired sense of permanence that is considered important for the success of the connector service network. 327. Against the disadvantages of ordinary buses they do have a number of positive features, including:  They can operate on existing roads with minimal additional infrastructure costs;  With suitable priority measures they can perform to an acceptable standard;  Vehicle and required infrastructure costs are lower than light rail costs (on a per passenger capacity basis);  Services can commence before the entire corridor is one hundred percent completed;  In future if corridor realignments prove necessary then these can be accomplished at minimal cost and delay. 328. On balance, ordinary buses are not considered an appropriate mode for the proposed outer ring or inner ring connector services in the short term to medium term. c) Innovative Rapid Transit (IRT) Assessment 329. In principle, what is needed is an alternative mode that provides the presence, status and perceived permanence of light rail but has construction and operating costs closer to ordinary bus. This can be referred to as the “think high quality rail, build high quality bus” concept. 330. Both the ‘trackless tram’ and the SuperBus (both being developed in China (Zhuzhou) by CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive Co., Ltd) are examples of emerging new Innovative Rapid Transit systems. These may well offer the benefits of light rail (presence, status, permanence, passenger capacity) coupled with the benefits of bus (low infrastructure costs and risks, low vehicle capital costs) whilst avoiding the disadvantages of each mode. 331. Brisbane (Australia) has opted for this emerging technology and has now shortlisted three companies to submit detailed proposals for the construction of the required vehicles. Once procured, these vehicles will operate in conjunction with other ordinary buses along existing bus infrastructure. Any additional infrastructure costs associated with the inclusion of

Transport Plan (2020) Page 82 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

IRT vehicles in the public transport fleet mix will be very low. Although these new IRT vehicles will operate in Brisbane on the existing segregated busway, the vehicles themselves do not require segregated operations. They could operate in mixed traffic (as do LRT systems in many European cities) if required. 332. Clearly IRT is an emerging new mode that bridges the gap between ordinary bus and steel tracked LRT. As with any emerging mode there are technology risks. However since the IRT largely comprises proven technology (e.g. rubber tyres running on road pavement, diesel, CNG or electric drivelines, articulated sections akin to those used for articulated buses) we do not consider these risks to be excessive. 333. The economic life of these vehicles is likely to be similar to that of ordinary buses (diesel or electric). During the course of their economic life medium to long term connector corridor decisions can be made, and these IRT vehicles can then, at the end of their economic lives be replaced by new IRT vehicles or other modes (e.g. LRT, metro) as is appropriate. In other words, the investment in IRT vehicles in the short term will not be a wasted investment. 334. On balance, IRT vehicles are considered, at the strategic level, to be an appropriate mode for the proposed outer ring or inner ring connector services in the short term to medium term.

Figure 5.12: Examples of Innovative Rapid Transit (IRT) Source: Photos taken at CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive Pty., Ltd April 2019

335. With the new XYHSS due to commence operations in late 2019 time is of the essence to implement a high capacity passenger transport system between that station and Xiangyang. A feasibility project is required (see text box below for outline of requirements of the proposed Innovative Rapid Transit feasibility study).

Transport Plan (2020) Page 83 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

3. Mode for the Airport Connector Services (Routes CS 4 and CS 5)

336. Given the current low demand, ordinary buses – but with suitable distinguishing livery – are considered the appropriate mode, at least in the short term. As and when demand increases these connector corridors can be considered for conversion to IRT mode.

Feasibility Project Outline – Innovative Rapid Transit (IRT) ObjectiveTo quickly determine the feasibility of operating an on-road IRT mode connecting the new XYHSS to Xiangyang Station. Mode Assessment: To (i) determine whether either of CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive Co., Ltd’s IRT options would be able to operate safely and reliably in Xiangyang, taking into account topography, traffic conditions, road conditions, intersections, vehicle turning circles, distances between stops, required charging stations, and other key factors; and (2) determine which mode, if any, is the preferred mode, taking all relevant matters into account. Mode Development Status: To assess the development status of any preferred mode and whether that mode is likely to be able to be operational by end 2019. Corridor Alignment Selection: To determine the preferred alignment (or alignments), recognising the operational characteristics of the preferred mode and the short time frame for implementation. This should examine as a priority the corridor referred to as CS 2 in section 2.4.2 above, including options to operate the southern arc to and from Xiangyang station via either the Hanjiang (rail) Bridge or the Xiangfan Hanjiang Changchong Bridge. Other corridor options may also be examined. Required Number of IRT Vehicles: To determine the required number of operational plus spare vehicles required to operate a 10 minute frequency in two directions along the proposed corridor (or corridors). Required Infrastructure: To determine the required supporting infrastructure, including (but not limited to) road treatments, charging stations on route, terminal requirements, stabling and maintenance facilities, any special equipment, etc. Knowledge Transfer: To identify any knowledge transfer opportunities, from supplier to local Xiangyang workforce Capital Costs: To determine the capital costs for vehicles and for infrastructure (+/- 20%). Operating Costs: To determine the annual operating costs for vehicles and for infrastructure (+/- 20%). Payment Options: To identify payment options (e.g. outright purchase, lease to buy, etc.) Project Deliverable: An easily understood technical report that addresses each of the matters identified above. Feasibility Project Timing: To be completed within 6 weeks of project approval to proceed.

4. Connector Service Priority Treatments

337. Xiangyang already has a well established network of peak period bus priority lanes (shared with taxis). These are effective in getting buses through the traffic more quickly than would otherwise be the case. These priority measures are part of the urban transport ‘fabric’

Transport Plan (2020) Page 84 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) and are accepted by motorists. With relatively minor upgrading these already-existing bus priority measures would further improve travel times for IRT connector services. Such upgrades would also benefit regular buses where they operate along the same road section as IRT connector services. 338. Proposed connector service priority measures include:  Improved on-road markings to more clearly designate the road space reserved for public transport (IRT, bus, taxi) along connector corridors, where such priority already exists;  New high quality road markings and road side signs to clearly designate the road space reserved for public transport (IRT, bus, taxi) along connector corridors, where such priority does not already exist;  Joining together ‘spot treatment’ priority measures and markings to provide continuous public transport priority along connector corridors;  Where required, signal priority to give connector services a ‘head start’ through traffic pinch points;  Ensuring that passive enforcement (signs, cameras, etc.) is real and that offending motorists incur appropriate penalties for not observing the public transport priority measures;  Active enforcement by police, to reinforce the ongoing passive enforcement;  Publicity campaigns - primarily to encourage appropriate driver behaviour but also to present the city and user benefits of the connector network. 339. With the impending opening of the new Panggong Bridge (paralleling the existing Han Jian rail and road bridge) the possibility of converting the Han Jian bridge road pavements to dedicated bus (and taxi / bicycle possibly) use should also be actively considered. That would further improve public transport travel times through this part of Xiangyang28.

F. Bus Terminals and Transit Centre

1. Issue and Discussion

340. By any standard the regional buses are poorly integrated with other buses, trains and with other regional bus services. Within Xiangyang there are at least three different regional bus terminals in dispersed city locations. None could be said to be acceptably close to the train station or to the main urban bus station. 341. There is no one single point of contact to obtain regional bus information, such as timetables or route maps. There is no discernible information at any regional bus station about the existence, let alone services offered at, any (competing) regional bus station.

28 Without adversely impacting on traffic, since the new Panggong Bridge will significantly increase road traffic capacity over the Han River – even if such traffic can no longer use the Han Jian Bridge.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 85 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

342. This may suit those passengers who from years of experience are already knowledgeable about services which have remained unchanged over the years. But the current arrangement cannot be regarded as being ideal or sustainable. 343. A much preferred arrangement would be establishment of a single regional bus transport passenger terminal for use by all regional bus operators (they could use their existing facilities for pre-departure despatch operations if necessary or sell the real estate and realise the asset value). Such a terminal would need to be well served by a range of urban bus services, train services, taxis and would need to have high quality transport connections to the new XYHSS and to the airport.

2. Possible Solution

344. The obvious place for such a multi-modal transit centre is in close proximity to the existing Xiangyang station which, as suggested above in this paper, would also be served by the proposed urban rail system. 345. There are two sites close to the Xiangyang rail station that have been considered potential locations for this proposed integrated transport centre:-  Using the abandoned rail freight depot off Changzheng Road;  In front of Xiangyang station on Qianjin Rd, opposite the location of the current bus station. 346. The abandoned rail freight yard off Changzheng Road can probably be excluded for the same reasons that it is no longer suitable as a freight depot:- vehicle access is too difficult and traffic volumes on Changzheng Rd are too high. The number of urban bus services passing this location is also limited.

347. This leaves the front of the railway station as the remaining preferred site.29 348. A multi-level transit centre is envisaged. This has the potential for a revenue- generating multi-storey air rights development.

29 Options involving demolition of existing buildings have not been considered. If any building in the immediate vicinity of Xiangyang station were at the end of its economic life then that site could be considered. No such sites are known to the writer of this paper at the time of writing.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 86 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 5.13: Current Urban Bus Terminal and Xiangyang Train Station Building in Background

349. At the concept level:  City buses would operate to, from and through the new transport centre at ground level;  Connector services, as described in Section 2 of this paper, would also operate at ground level through the transit centre;  Regional buses would operate to and from an elevated second floor (with vehicle ramps up and down and passenger escalators up and down);  Additional levels could be added to generate real estate rental income. 350. The current city bus terminal at the intersection of Qianjin Road and Zhengyuan Road would no longer be used. Existing regional bus terminals would also no longer be used for passenger operations, but could still be used for regional bus despatch, overnight parking of regional buses, and so on. 351. Qianjin Road would be either re-aligned to still allow for general through traffic, or could be made into an underpass beneath the transit centre. 352. With suitable design, regional buses would have excellent connection to and from all directions via the new east-west link. This link is now being constructed and passes close by the proposed transit centre location. 353. World-class passenger facilities would be provided – well lit, air-conditioned and weather proof. Of course excellent and short passenger connections to and from the immediately adjacent Xiangyang train station concourse would also be provided.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 87 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Existing Existing Car parking urban bus terminal

Indicative Xiangyang location of station multi modal building transit centre

Figure 5.14: Indicative Multi-Modal Transit Centre Location

3. A Transit-Oriented Development Complex

354. The air-rights atop the proposed multi-modal transit centre provides the opportunity for a true transit-oriented development (TOD) in Xiangyang. But there is potential to also develop the adjacent unused rail freight yard (the site considered but rejected for the proposed transit centre) as an accompanying TOD. This could be achieved by developing a similar building on that site and providing a high quality elevated (above the main rail tracks) publicly accessible pedestrian walkway (or travelator) between the two developments. This would immediately connect business in the Qianjin Road area with businesses in the Changzheng Road area. It would also bring more areas into close walking distance of the transit centre. 355. The development of a second multi-level TOD would provide further long term revenue streams to Government. These revenue streams could be used to help fund passenger transport services in Xiangyang.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 88 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

VI. THE TRANSPORT PLAN

A. Purpose

1. Thoughts

356. One of the important strengths in Xiangyang is that people have recognized that there are weaknesses but these can be fixed. For example, both ports and aviation are instituting plans to “catch up” on their respective infrastructure and technological needs and upgrades. Similarly, the road and rail networks are being expanded and upgraded, including bypasses where appropriate. 357. With the new city center about to begin receiving the transfer of government offices starting in June/July to September 2019, there are considerable uncertainties as to what this will mean in terms of traffic flows: it could substantially reduce traffic congestion in the existing city center, or it could result creating more congestion between the existing and the new city centers. Especially important and as discussed in Urban and Regional Passenger and Personal Transport section, will be how public transport responds to the opening of the new city center with its provision of bus services. Similarly, the Bus company recognizes that it has to expand its services to outlying areas, and this may prove a more challenging task because data to plan routes and services are not readily available. 358. Other infrastructure initiatives are underway: another road bridge across the Han River is under construction; logistics centers and manufacturers are locating mostly in the northern part of the expanded urban area, with some in the eastern area as well as adjacent to the new port under construction; and, plans to link the logistics centers and manufacturers are being considered or being put into operation. 359. One proposal that has been discussed for some time is to relocate the railway freight yard outside the existing city center and adjacent to the marshalling yard. In terms of land use as well as for transport efficiencies, this would be a logical move but it has been bogged down by bureaucratic sensitivities about which agency pays for the move and what they receive in return. This needs to be resolved sooner rather than later. The current railway freight yard does little business, has expensive equipment sitting idle, and is well distant from the manufacturers and logistics centers that could utilize its services. Relocating in and of itself will not necessarily reduce transport costs but at least provide easier and more efficient access to railway services. 360. We didn’t think of these ideas and concepts. These issues, plans, and proposals were offered in discussions by stakeholders in Xiangyang: the task then becomes implementing them in a timely and coordinated manner. 361. Future work will include more detailed interaction with stakeholders to further define gaps and possible solutions. As discussed in this and earlier sections, for a comprehensive integrated multimodal system to evolve, there will be tremendous need to facilitate and maintain dialogue among the various stakeholders: a clear focus of the dialogue must be on costs and efficiencies. Working groups could be established for multiple agencies and divisions. External experts could be invited to present data and information in a seminar structure.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 89 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

362. This section presents some ideas for actions and projects that are needed to improve the transport and logistics industries within the context of an overall comprehensive multimodal based policy and plan. 363. Discussions with XMTB staff as well as staff from other agencies and companies demonstrate that they know what they are doing, what they need, and that the basic infrastructure for the various modes is operating, under construction, or being planned. In other words, a sound basis for realizing the goals and targets of the Han River Ecological Economic Belt is being established to meet the current and future needs of the greater Xiangyang catchment area. 364. As a perspective, what is needed largely fall into three categories:  Near to long-term actions that are on-going such as data collection and analysis, and for this particular item, some equipment would be required;  Infrastructure investments that have already been identified and could be accelerated for development such as relocation of the existing railway freight yard in the existing city center;  An on-going dialogue focused on improving transportation and logistics efficiencies including costs and consumer demands. 365. The challenge is to tie together what is operating, under construction, and planned into a package that becomes multimodal in fact and not separate agencies and separate modes going off in their own direction. Coordination and cooperation are essential for multimodal success, and these may not happen overnight or through set plans. Rather, some of the supply-chain success stories resulted from informal discussions between acquaintances. There is no single “right way” to develop multimodal operations but for it to become reality, many players have to work together so that all can benefit.

B. Actions and Activities

366. Discussed below are the actions including projects and activities that have been identified as being important for developing multimodal transport and logistics industries. Table 7.1 lists the priorities and a corresponding time-frame. However, some of the projects could be readily accelerated depending on the availability of funds and opportunities. 367. Again, this list should not be taken as a “wish list” of projects but rather as steps needed to comprehensively integrate the various modes in a cost-effective manner, to monitor that integration, and to be able to identify issues and problems in order to take remedial actions when it is determined that the comprehensive integration is not being successfully implemented. 368. Please note that we welcome comments, additions and/or subtractions to this list.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 90 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Table 6.1: Recommended Actions and Activities

Transport Plan (2020) Page 91 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

369. The suggested improvements are then discussed under each mode below.

1. General/Overall

370. The focus is to establish on-going activities that are necessary to effectively manage the various modes and to provide a basis for economic justification and decision-making.  Data Collection and Analysis. Currently there is no collection of traffic counts other than the Provincial government’s periodically assessing through traffic flows on expressways and highways. Equipment is needed to electronically collect and record traffic by time, day, and direction. The equipment should be mobile and rotated to different locations and at different times of the year. In addition, driver and passenger surveys should be administered to further define traffic flows. The Bus Company currently does this for its urban passengers. Collectively, these data will become the basis for traffic forecasting. As described in Section 4, utilization of mobile phone data is a cost-effective alternative to the more traditional traffic counts and traffic surveys. Moreover, mobile phone data provides real-time and origin:destination data that could be complemented by traffic/passenger surveys (including photos of “choke points”).  A key question is whether XMTB wants to expand the colleciton and analysis of phone data. Other cities in China and around the world are using mobile phone data as indicators for origin:destination data and for travel times. This could be a useful and cost-effective mechanism to plot demand for urban transport services.  Resume and Maintain Public Dialogue. This was initiated last year by XMG. As noted above, this is an essential component to successful multimodal operations. It should be resumed and maintained. It could take many different forms such as luncheon speakers, seminars, working committees, etc. it would not have to meet every week but as needed and at least every 6 months to start would be a suggestion.  IT Development and Integration. As discussed regarding logistics information platforms, there are many different systems and the purpose here is not to suggest unifying all of them but rather to determine where links need and can be established. Multimodal operations are highly dependent on IT, and support for the development of or integration with existing systems should be supported.  Monitor and Review. As actions, activities and projects are planned, implemented and operating there is always the need to step back and ask if this is working? If the results are in line with expectations? Can we improve efficiencies?

2. Roads

371. The focus here is to reduce congestion in city centers and to enable faster transit times and to improve transport service in outlying areas. Both of which are noted in the Han River Ecological Economic Belt policy paper.  G55 Expressway (Bypass) Extension, 2022-2027. The bypass will reduce congestion and pressure on the current road network by siting to the east of the airport

Transport Plan (2020) Page 92 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

where it would connect with an existing route and planned extension east of the new High Speed railway terminal.  G 207 Bypass, (2020 funding). This is one of the most important recommended projects because it would greatly reduce congestion in Xiangyang and force heavy trucks to use a new and strengthened bridge. See #C,2 below.  Improve Bus Services to out-lying areas, 2019-2020. This has been identified as an important priority. This is underway but considerable effort will be needed to implement. This has been highlighted in Section 4..  Monitor Traffic Volumes and Flows, on-going. As with the data collection and analysis above, this needs to be established practice in order to asses economic issues including traffic related to road use as well as forecasting.

3. Urban

372. The urban actions and activities are focused on connecting nodes and areas that are not currently connected and on monitoring changes resulting from the development of the new city center. These are highlighted in Section 4.  Improve Connections to Key Nodes. The airport, the new HS railway terminal that will become operational in 2020, the new city center and the existing city center are currently not connected except by taxi or individual vehicles. This is obviously an important action and requires planning as well as some implementation during 2019 when there is increased activity in the new city center, followed by dedicated express bus service between 2020 and 2027 when the Phase 1 of the light rail system becomes operational. From 2027, the light rail system will connect these nodes but it may be possible to reallocate the express buses to other routes if they prove successful.  Improve Bus Services to peri-urban areas. With the greatly enlarged urban area, there are development nodes of manufacturers, logistics centers, residences, and commercial centers scattered over a number of kilometers which are not connected. Consideration should be given to how to service these areas, and it will become an on-going activity as population and economic activity increase in these areas.  Monitor Traffic Volumes and Flows. Similar to the comments in the General/Overall and Roads discussion, traffic counts and surveys are essential to understanding what is occurring and what is needed in the future. This is especially the case for the urban areas with the new city developing and yet most of the population live in or near the existing city center.  Facilitate modal shift to public transport. By improving bus services, the bus company could become an important comoonent, Related to this effort would be to address the parking issue. Parking fees could be raised to enable the shift to public transport from automobiles.  Public safety campaigns should become an on-going activity. This would include providing resources including staff to schools and public meetings. Posters could be

Transport Plan (2020) Page 93 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

placed in shops/stores. Appendix B: Road Safety Planning addresses safety issues. The Urban and Regional Passenger and Personal Transport section provides a range of safety options and opportunities for all urban and regional transport modes, including for pedestrians, non-motorized, and vehicles.  Assess congestion following move to new City Center. How has the move affected congestion in the existing city center and is congestion becoming an issue in the new city center, and/or between the two city centers. While this should be an on-going activity in one sense, specific attention could be given in 2021-2024 following the shifting of government offices in 2019-2020.  Assess parking requirements. There have been some reports that in certain areas of the existing city center, the availability of parking spaces is becoming an issue. Unless there is a more urgent need to address this issue, it could be assessed during 2022-2023 and periodically thereafter, and once the government offices have relocated.

4. Railways

373. There are two areas of focus for the actions and activities related to railways: first is to improve connectivity through the development of spur lines, and light rail,; and second to improve land use in the urban areas.  Spur lines to Manurfacturers & Logistics Centers. This is a current activity that will be continued over the 2019-2025 in order to link the various ports, manufacturers and logistics centers. This is a priority activity necessary to increase multimodal operations.  Relocate Freight Yard. The current freight yard is vastly under-utilized. It has considerable equipment and space but very limited activity. It should be relocated near the marshalling yard and the new railway logistics center. This should occur in the 2020-2021 period and the then vacated land put to better use.  New High-speed Railway Terminal Connections. The new terminal will begin operations after Spring Festival 2020, thus there is a need to plan for the use of express buses this year, and to put the buses into operations in 2020 with the terminal’s opening. Following a 6-year construction period, the Phase 1 light rail system will begin operating in 2027.  Develop Mass Transit/Light Rail. This is for the actual construction of the light rail Phase 1 system. Application for the light rail is expected to be filed and approved in 2019, after which detailed planning can begin in 2020. Construction will follow and Phase 1 will begin operating in 2027. See #C.2 below.

5. Ports

374. The focus here is on opening ports and maintaining waterways. These are also essential to multimodal development.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 94 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

 Open Shu Jia Port. The port is currently under construction with 4 docking areas under Phase 1 during the 2020-2021 period and has water depths increase following the rising of water as the downstream dams are completed. A railway spur line will be added in the future as noted under Railways.  Develop Proposed Tang Bai Port. This port has been proposed but there has been some opposition to it regarding changes in land use. However, it is in a prime location to service the manufacturers and logistics centers in the northern part of the urban area. This has been scheduled for early completion during the 2021-2023 period in order to meet the demand for shipping in that area. A railway spur line will be added in the future as noted under Railways. See #C.2 below.  Monitor and Maintain Depth/Dredging. This is an on-going activity that has to be successfully implemented if the ports are going to function as expected. It is one of the activities cited in the Han River Ecological Economic Belt policy paper.

6. Aviation

375. The Xiangyang airport serves around 5,000 passenger movements (arrivals and departures combined) per day very low number compared with many other cities in China. The number of aircraft movements is also commensurately low. With airport upgrades both in hand (longer runway, improved all-weather landing and take-off technology) and planned (including another runway) the Xiangyang Government expects the number of aircraft movements and passengers will increase. At some stage in the future bus / mass transit services to and from the airport are likely to become more important, though the time frame for significant increases in passenger demand to and from the airport are not certain. 376. Aviation has been experiencing a rapid increase in passengers and service. In 2012, there were about 0.2 million passengers which had increased to 1.4 million in 2018, and 2 million in 2019. The target is to reach 2 million per year and thus become a “main line” airport. Currently there are an average of 17 scheduled flights per day, and the plan is to connect service to 29 airports during 2019. 377. The number of flights, passengers and tourists to the city have been increasing at rates in the range of 20-30+% in recent years. The 37 A Grade tourist sites in the city received over 12 million tourists in 2018. In other words, people are coming to Xiangyang. 378. As noted above, the Civil Aviation Office will be merging with the Transport Bureau. The Civil Aviation Office has the following responsibilities:  Facilitate Development of and Supervise Airline Operations;  Participate to assist Xiangyang Municipal government to reach its goals and targets;  Provide emergency rescue services including responding to accidents and training;  Investigate accidents;  Facilitate and assist the development of relationships with other airports; and

Transport Plan (2020) Page 95 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

 Provide information and collect statistics. 379. The current airport consists of a new (2018) terminal, an approved runway 2600 meters in length, taxiways, an additional short runway for small planes, and associated facilities. The added length is important because it has enabled the acquisition of more advanced navigational aids. The advanced navigational aids enable alll-weather landings and take offs under these conditions. There is a need to continue to upgrade aviation facilities and services. Air travel is expanding and as a regional hub, Xiangyang needs to meet this demand.  Increase routes and flights. This is an on-going activity reflecting the increasing economic growth in this region.  Construct 2nd Runway. The 2nd runway would enable handling more flights in a safe manner and is scheduled for the 2024-2027 period.

7. Logistics

380. The focus here is two-fold: first there are some facilities that need to be relocated or in the case of cold storage expanded to meet growing demand; and second, establishing mechanisms that both support and promote cost-effective multimodal solutions. These are discussed in detail in the Logistics Improvement Plan and are highlighted here.  Resume and Maintain Public Dialogue. As indicated in the General/Overall discussion, this was initiated last year by XMG. As noted above, this is an essential component to successful multimodal operations. It should be resumed and maintained. It could take many different forms such as luncheon speakers, seminars, working committees, etc. it would not have to meet every week but as needed and at least every 6 months to start would be a suggestion.  IT Development and Integration. As indicated in the General/Overall discussion and as discussed regarding logistics information platforms, there are many different systems and the purpose here is not to suggest unifying all of them but rather to determine where links need and can be established. Multimodal operations are highly dependent on IT, and support for the development of or integration with existing systems should be supported.  Relocate Private (Yicheng) Logistics Center. This successful and relatively large operation must be found a new home that is sufficient in size to enable growth and to support multimodal connections. This is a priority because it is a thriving operation and should be supported. Relocation should be targeted as soon as possible in the 2020-2021 period.  Upgrade Cold Storage. The current owner/operator is facing some financial issues but appears to be able to continue. A new agricultural cold storage facility is planned for east of the new city center in the 2020-2021 period.  Multimodal Integration of Logistics Centers. This is an on-going activity to stress and link logistics centers with multimodal transport modes when cost-effective. When

Transport Plan (2020) Page 96 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

multimodal modes are not cost-effective, there should be assessments as to why they are not.

C. Summary: Transport Improvement Projects

381. A series of suggested transport improvement projects including for infrastructure, operations, and sector reforms have been identified and are shown in Table 4.4. The projects reflect the discussions presented in this section. Some of the projects would likely involve sizeable investments while others are more policy-oriented. Note that no costings have been prepared. Table 6.2: Suggested Transport Improvement Projects Works Suggested Improvement Completion Services Category Timeframe Improved (1) (2) Transport Infrastructure Improvement Projects (TI) TI.1 Multi modal transit centre S-M C, L, R TI.2 Innovative Rapid Transit Feasibility N C TI.3 Connector Services Stage 1 S C TI.4 Connector Services, LRT or Metro M-L C TI.5 Transit Oriented Development S-M C, L, R TI.6 Urban Rail LRT Feasibility N C, L TI.7 Urban Rail LRT Implementation S C, L TI.8 Bus Priority S C, L Transport Operations Improvement Projects (TO) TO.1 Road Pricing S /ongoing C, L TO.2 Parking Pricing S /ongoing C, L TO.3 Traffic Management Improvements S /ongoing C, L, R TO.4 Pilot / Demonstration Area 1 S /ongoing C, L, P TO.5 Pilot / Demonstration Area 2 S /ongoing C, L, P TO.6 Pilot / Demonstration Area 3 S P TO.7 Driver Behaviour Improvement S /ongoing C, L, R, P Transport Reform Improvement Projects (TR) TR.1 Develop service level guidelines for S C, L urban passenger transport TR.2 New contract and funding S C, L arrangements for urban buses TR.3 Develop service level guidelines for S R regional passenger transport TR.4 New contract and funding S R arrangements for regional buses

Transport Plan (2020) Page 97 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

TR.5 Review organisational structure S C, L, R Key: (1) N = Now (within the next few months), S = Short term (0-5 years), M = Medium term (5-10 years), L = Long term (10-20 years) (2) C = Connector Services, L = Local Services, R = Regional Services

D. Possible Projects for International Funding Institutions (IFI)

382. The possible projects for IFIs are listed below.

1. G 207 Bypass, (2020 funding).

383. This is one of the most important recommended projects because it would greatly reduce congestion in Xiangyang and force heavy trucks to use a new and strengthened bridge. The cost for this 94 km (largely 6-lane) highway including bridges is expensive—an estimated 7 billion CNY. However, it will be built to handle heavy trucks and will greatly reduce congestion in and around Xiangyang. A feasibility study in Chinese is available and indicates economic viability. This is a priority project.

2. The Xiangyang - Yichang Expressway,

384. The expreeway directly connect Xiangyang to the Shanghai-Chengdu Expressway. With a length of 141.4 kilometers and a two-way four-lane design, the total investment of the project is about 25.3 billion CNY, and the average cost per kilometer is about 142 million yuan. The Hubei Provincial Department of Transportation has agreed to carry out the project feasibility. The expressway will be jointly developed by Xiangyang and Yichang, A more detailed discription of the project is in Appendix D.

3. Develop Proposed Tang Bai Port.

385. This port has been proposed and approval for reclassify land use is expected in the near future. However, it is in a prime location to service the manufacturers and logistics centers in the northern part of the urban area. This has been scheduled for early completion during the 2021- 2023 period in order to meet the demand for shipping in that area. A railway spur line will be added in the future as noted under Railways. The rail line to a multimodal terminal is 8.5 km. The multimodal terminal will be adjacent to a liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal and include a range of storage and cargo transfer points. Note that highway G 70 runs parallel to the rail/multimodal terminal, ensuring that road transport can easily access the multimodal terminal. From the terminal to the river port is 5 km for the rail connection and is about 3 km north of the airport. The cost for the 13.5 km of rail lines and rail marshalling yards is approximately 800 million CNY. The estimated cost for the intermodal terminal and storage facilities is 700 million CNY. The cost for the port development is approximately 2-2.5 billion CNY. Preliminary feasibility studies have been undertaken but detailed analysis is required. These projects are essential for developing the logistics industry and for shifting to multimodal operatiions. These projects have the highest

Transport Plan (2020) Page 98 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

priority in Xiangyang. (See Figure 7.1). DF Rail which recently incorporated institutional reforms conducive to better public private dialogue (PPD). DF Rail is merging with Hubei Railway Investment Company because DF Rail is an experienced rail company with a modern logistics company unit, FSL Logistics, and will serve not just DF Rail customers, but the entire Xiangyang logistics industry. DF Rail could be one of the needed leading 3PLs in Xiangyang. Consideration could also be given to providing a loan for rolling stock for the rail line under a PPP arrangement. Further information on the port is provided in the Logistics Plan report. 386. Importantly, the above projects will serve as the basis for planning and implementation efforts to turn Xiangyang and specifically the Fuyang area in the northern section of the city, into a national logistics hub. Xiangyang has been designated as one of 47 national logistics hubs for development. The development of the hub will be a multi-faceted and multi-year effort, including manufacturers/producers, transport operators, logistics companies and considerable integration and coordination between the public and private sectors. The overall aim is to reduce costs at all levels, improve resouce utilization and enable rationalization of the various currently diffused logistics parks. Technologies including IT will be upgraded and mechanisms established to improve coordination between varoius parties. There will be a Free-trade Zone and a bonded zone (see Figure 6.2). As the plans evolve, funding for the various components may be necessary. However, pursuing the national-level logistics hub is considered to provide the path for considerable downstream sustainable growth and development.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 99 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 6.1: Preliminary Route for Rail Lines to the Proposed Tang Bai Port

Transport Plan (2020) Page 100 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 6.2: Proposed Bonded and Free-Trade Zones for the National Logistics Hub

4. Urban Rail Service

387. Light rail is an expensive proposition. One alternative that has not been considered or developed is the fesibility of utilizing the exiting rail network both passenger and freight, for uran/suburan commuter services. The impact of the new high-speed passenger lines has not been determined in terms of effects on the existing rail network. Services may or may not be affected. There could be reduced services on the existing network as passengers shift to the high-speed network. If this is the case, there may be opportunities to utilize the existin nestwork for commuter services. A feasibility study may be warranted to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this alternative. A significant hurdle would be the cost of converting current at-grade rail lines running through the city to over-passes enabling non-stop transits. ⇔

Transport Plan (2020) Page 101 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

APPENDIX A: DESIGN AND MONITORING FRAMEWORK

Impact the TA is Aligned with Modern, green, efficient, livable urban areas in Xiangyang developed (The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of Xiangyang)a Results Chain Performance Indicators Data Sources Risks with Targets and and Baselines Reporting Mechanisms

Outcome By 2020: Xiangyang Change in Modern, sustainable, 1a. 1 recommendation for Municipal government integrated transport integrated, sustainable personnel or and logistics system transport adopted by the restructuring of promoted XMTB (2017 baseline: NA) government departments or duties 1b. 1 recommendation for delay the adoption of logistics adopted by the the strategy. XMTB (2017 baseline: NA) Outputs 1a. Transport sector gap Interim report, final Low stakeholder 3. Comprehensive, analysis completed by report, review participation and December 2018 (2017 meeting, and support for activities. integrated, sustainable baseline: NA). workshop transport plan presentations. completed. 1b. Integrated, sustainable transport plan completed by August 2019 (2017 baseline: NA).

2a. International logistics best-practice study and gap 3. Logistics analysis completed by Interim report, final December 2018 report, review improvement plan (2017 baseline: NA) meeting, and completed workshop 2b. Logistics improvement presentations plan completed by August 2019 (2017 baseline: NA)

3a. 15 XMTB staff completed a study tour and report better skills and understanding of best- practice multimodal logistics operating facilities XMTB unable to by December 2019 (2017 Study tour secure approval from 3. Multimodal baseline: NA) completion report higher authorities prepared by the integration and 3b. 15 XMTB staff have implementing logistics capacity received training on agency strengthened models of implementation and models of operation for integrated, multimodal logistics facilities and

Transport Plan (2020) Page 102 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

systems by December 2019 (2017 baseline: NA)

KEY ACTIVITIES WITH MILESTONES 1. Comprehensive, integrated, sustainable transport plan completed 1.1 Gap analysis of Xiangyang transport infrastructure, systems, and policies (Q3–Q4 2018) 1.1.1 Review and analysis of existing local, provincial, and national transport and logistics plans. 1.1.2 International and national best-practice case studies and lessons learned. 1.1.3 Development of current passenger and goods flows and demand analysis. 1.1.4 Stakeholder engagement to understand future demand, needs, challenges, and forecasts. 1.1.5 Identification of gaps between future state and current state.

1.2. Transport plan (Q4 2018–Q3 2019) 1.2.1 Development of recommendations for the improvement of transport in Xiangyang, with consideration of mobility and transit-oriented development principles, including infrastructure, policy, information systems, technology, multimodal connectivity, and other transport innovations. 1.2.2 Identification of project priorities for the short, medium, and long term.

2. Logistics improvement plan completed 2.1 International logistics best-practice study and gap analysis (Q3–Q4 2018) 2.1.1 Detailed investigation of current logistics challenges and needs in Xiangyang. 2.1.2 International and national best-practice case studies and lessons learned. 2.1.3 Development of Xiangyang-wide layout for logistics industry. 2.1.4 Identification of gaps between future state and current state.

2.2. Logistics improvement plan (Q4 2018–Q3 2019) 2.2.1 Development of optimal layout of logistics industry facilities in Xiangyang, considering future demand, industry needs, and multimodal transport integration. 2.2.2 Development of an operating philosophy based on international best practice for Xiangyang logistics. 2.2.3 Identification of project priorities for the short, medium, and long term.

3. Multimodal integration and logistics capacity strengthened 3.1 Development of a study tour of best-practice multimodal transport and logistics operating facilities that demonstrate the benefits of logistics clusters, multimodal transport facilities, intelligent traffic management, and information sharing by December 2019. 3.2 Training of 15 government officials on operating philosophies for integrated, multimodal logistics, inland waterway transport, and multimodal transport integration and information sharing by December 2019. Inputs

ADB: $400,000 (TASF-other sources)

Note: The government will provide counterpart support in the form of counterpart professional and support staff; a suitably furnished office space with utilities and telecommunication access; materials, maps, available data, and documents required by the TA; the cost of utilities (not including telephone) for the consultants; and other in-kind contributions. Assumptions for Partner Financing Not applicable. ADB = Asian Development Bank, NA = not applicable, XMTB = Xiangyang Municipal Transport Bureau. A Government of the People’s Republic of China, Xiangyang Municipal Government. 2016. The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of Xiangyang, 2016–2020. Xiangyang. Source: Asian Development Bank.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 103 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

APPENDIX B: ROAD SAFETY PLANNING

A. Traffic Accidents Overview

1 Introduction

388. This paper focuses on road safety. This section presents an overview of traffic accidents on a global basis, for China, and with some additional data on Xiangyang. There are gaps in the data but broad trends are apparent. 389. Following this introductory section and the overview of traffic accidents including global data, the next section discusses road safety audits. The followwing two sections present road safety audits with respect to pedestrians and non-motorized transport network, and vehicles. The final section covers conclusions

2 Global Trends

390. The Global status report on road safety 2018 (WHO, Geneva, 2018) indicates that global traffic deaths contiinue to rise (Box 1) but that deaths per 100,000 vehicles have fallen from 135 in 2000 to 64 in 2016, with 1.35 million people dying in traffic accidents in 2016.30 391. The World Health Organisation (WHO) report also states that traffic accidents are the 8th leading cause of death for people of all ages, and the leading cause of death for children and young adults, aged 5 to 29 years.31 Pedestrians and cyclists account for 26% of the deaths, motorized 2- and 3-wheel scooters account for 28%, car occupants 29%, and other/unaccounted 17%.32 392. WHO, Global Road Safety Partnership under the International Red Cross/Crescent, United Nations Road Satefy Trust, and the various internatiional lending institutions have all provided support during the Road Safety Decade of Action, 2010-2020. This includes funds, technical support and training, data collection and analysis. While there have been significant improvements, much remains to be done.

3 China’s Successes

393. The Global status report on road safety 2018 includes a statistical annex with comparative data on 175 countries. China’s table in the statistical annex is shown in Box 2. As the table indicates, the number of deaths has been halved between 2006 and 2015.

30 Global status report on road safety 2018 (WHO, Geneva, 2018), pp. 4.

31 Global status report on road safety 2018 (WHO, Geneva, 2018), p. 3.

32 Global status report on road safety 2018 (WHO, Geneva, 2018), p. 10.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 104 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Box 1: Global Traffic Deaths, 2000-2016

Source: Global status report on road safety 2018 (WHO, Geneva, 2018).

394. How has China been able to accomplish this feat? The answer is in the tables above the trend chart: laws and regulations have increased and are being enforced. These include requirements for seat belts, helmets, dealing with drunk drivers, speeding, vehicle inspections, post-crash care, vehicle standards, and mobile phone use by drivers. 395. In addition, there has been a strong national commitment to improving road safety and this is deomonstrated by the increasing use of road safety audits for current as well as planned roads. This has resulted in addressing specific safety concerns for especially vulnerable groups such as pedestrians and non-motorized vehicles. 396. While the successes are notable, further work is needed as demonstrated by the data showing that only 20% of all motorcycle riders wear helmets, and only 37% of car occupants wear seat belts.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 105 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Box 2: China’s Data Sheet in Global status report on road safety 2018

398.

399.

Source: Global status report on road safety 2018 (WHO, Geneva, 2018), p. 122.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 106 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

400. An interesting and timely recent article highlights accident trends in China, “Road traffic injuries in China from 2007 to 2016: the epidemiological characteristics, trends and influencing factors,” by Xue Wang, Huiting Yu, Chan Nie, Yanna Zhou, Haiyan Wang and Xiuquan Shi, published by PeerJ in August 2019. The article concludes with “Even though the frequency of road traffic accidents has declined, RTIs (road traffic incidents) remain an urgent public health problem in China. Thus, the government should give some target preventative measures to reduce RTIs, aiming at different regions, the increasing trend of the death toll related to non-motor vehicles and the highest occurrence on cement concrete pavement roads.” 401. The following 2 boxes indicate major trends including rising costs and the vulnerability of pedestrians and non-motorized vehicels. Box 3: China’s Traffic Accident Trends, 2007-2016

402. Source: “Road traffic injuries in China from 2007 to 2016: the epidemiological characteristics, trends and influencing factors,” by Xue Wang, Huiting Yu, Chan Nie, Yanna Zhou, Haiyan Wang and Xiuquan Shi, published by PeerJ in August 2019, p. 5.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 107 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Box 4: Other Road Accident Trends

Source: “Road traffic injuries in China from 2007 to 2016: the epidemiological characteristics, trends and influencing factors,” by Xue Wang, Huiting Yu, Chan Nie, Yanna Zhou, Haiyan Wang and Xiuquan Shi, published by PeerJ in August 2019, p. 6. 403. An important conclusion by the authors of the paper: “Road traffic accidents have caused a great hospitalization burden in China. Our results showed that the death toll related to motor vehicles, pedestrians/ passengers declined , and there was large fluctuation in the trends of the

Transport Plan (2020) Page 108 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

`other' traffic category (The actual value was small). Previous literature mainly focus on motor vehicle traffic rather than non-motor vehicles. However, one of notable findings from our study is that non-motor vehicle accidents (such as those involving bicycles, tricycles, electric bicycles, disabled people's motor wheel chairs and powered vehicles) has risen at a high speed since 2012, which indicates more attention should be given to address this issue in the future. Non-motor vehicles, as a vulnerable group in the traffic system, are rarely paid enough attention to. Non- motorized transportation is an important feature of urban transportation in China. The reasons for non-motor vehicle traffic accidents increased year by year are as follows: Firstly, the number of non-motor vehicles has increased fast as the advantages of small volume, convenient, flexible, environmental protection and low carbon popular with travelers. However, the road space was more crowded. Secondly, more non-motorized lanes or mixed carriageways for motor and non- motor vehicles are occupied for parking in roads, which further increases the risk of non-motorized vehicles being exposed to motor traffic.”33 404. An interesting trend is that with the length of railways increasing, traffic accidents had been declining up to 2016. In other words, people are shifting from longer bus services to the railway. This corraborates discussion with bus company operators in Xiangyang during 2019. 405. Table B.1 shows basic statistics for traffic accidents in China during 2017. As discussed above, the economic losses from traffic accidents have been increasing. Note: “tractors” is listed in the publication but it likely indicates heavy trucks. Table B.1: Basic Statistics on Traffic Accidents, 2017 Number of Number of Number of Direct Property Type Accidents Deaths Injuries Losses (cases) (persons) (persons) (million yuan) Total 203,049 63,772 209,654 1,213.11 Vehicles 182,343 59,166 188,585 1,155.56 Motor Vehicles 139,412 46,817 139,180 1,039.78 Motorcycles 39,780 10,991 46,504 98.25 Tractors 1,896 804 1,776 7.07 Non-motorized 18,144 3,253 19,619 39.74 Vehicles Bicycles 1,576 350 1,450 3.59 Pedestrians and 2,470 1,322 1,347 17.56 Passengers Others 92 31 103 0.26 Source: China Statistical Yearbook, 2018, National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing, Table 24-5.

1. 33 Source: “Road traffic injuries in China from 2007 to 2016: the epidemiological characteristics, trends and influencing factors,” by Xue Wang, Huiting Yu, Chan Nie, Yanna Zhou, Haiyan Wang and Xiuquan Shi, published by PeerJ in August 2019, p. 7-8.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 109 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

406. Of those killed, about 20% were pedestrians, and China is placing a priority on improving safety for pedestrians, and penalties for drivers that endanger pedestrians are increasing..34 China is also taking measures to improve warning systems and traffic flows during freezing and foggy conditions.35

407. China has 240 million automobiles and 409 million registered drivers.36 This includes 13.5 million trucks.37 The numbers are increasing and highlight the need to improve on the already impressive reductions in accidents and road-related deaths. 408. In Xiangyang in 2016, there were 354 transport-related accidents and 320 deaths, in 2015 there were 116 accidents and 98 deaths. In 2016 there were 163 transport-related injuries at a total cost of 29.82 million CNY, and in 2015 there were 80 transport-related injuries at a cost of 5.74 million CNY.38

34 State Council press release, 25 December 2017, Beijing. 35 State Council press release, 18 November 2017, Beijing. 36 State Council press release, 15 January 2019, Beijing. 37 State Council press release, 19 December 2017, Beijing. 38 Xiangyang Statistical Yearbook for 2017, Table 13-9.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 110 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

B. Road Safety Auditing from Planning to Operations

i. Introduction

409. This section presents an overview of managing the road network from planning to design to contruction to operation and maintenance. These stages are well-known. What is important to recognize is that each stage is not an end of one step in the process. Rather, monitoring through the use of data collection, analysis, and above all auditing progress and performance are essential to developing and improving road management and road safety. 410. An ADB Technical Assistance Report states “The Government (China) implements the following policies to improve road safety: (i) enforcement of rules and greater awareness of road safety, (ii) improving roads, (iii) improving the safety of motor vehicles, (iv) improving traffic safety management, and (v) developing technology (e.g., ITS: Intelligent Traffic/Transport Systems; added by the Consultant) to improve road safety. It recognizes that newly available technologies can play an important role in enhancing the impact of these policies.”39 411. Implementing these positive policies is an on-going process that requires constant and on-going evaluations, reviews, and revisions. Death rates and accidents have been decreasing in China and the developed countries through the enforcement of drunk driving laws, seat belt and helmet laws, speeding, and improvements in vechicle construction and safety measures. However, the costs of traffic accidents both socially and economically require much further attention: traffic accidents typically result in 1-3% losses to GDP. 412. Compliance with design standards and laws and regulations do not necessarily result in an optimally safer road design or optimum operational performance. An important tool to improve designs and performance during during road contruction/rehabilitation and operation and maintenance is the Road Safety Audit (RSA). 413. The concept of the RSAs originated in the United Kingdom in the early 1980s because some newly constructed roads were experiencing high crash frequencies or severities that could have been prevented through more safety concious design decisions. The concept has spread to many other countries throughout the world and has become an important method to improve safety and overall road performance.40 414. Roads and traffic schemes have always been designed with safety in mind. However, despite safety standards and good intentions, many new road projects quickly become crash “blackspots.” A reason might be that the new road or traffic scheme—even though designed according to safety standards—increases motorist speeds. A new traffic scheme may also be biased towards motorized vehicles, often at the expense of pedestrians and other vulnerable road users. Moreover, the combination of different and possibly outdated or inappropriate standards, design team members working independently, or various design outputs inadvertently combining in a way that reduces road safety, can increase the number of crashes at a site.

39 People’s Republic of China: Improving Road Safety through the Application of Intelligent Transport Systems, Project Number: 40045, Policy and Advisory Technical Assistance (PATA), June 2009, Manila. 40 Road Safety Audits Guidelines, USA Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., 2006.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 111 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

415. In addition to problems in the design of a new project, changes during project construction can also lead to a degradation of safety when the effects of those changes are not fully analyzed. Finally, a new project may also inadvertently increase hazards on adjacent roads. 416. Road safety audits are designed to specifically address and prevent these kinds of unexpected increases in traffic accidents by providing an integrated assessment of a new (or existing) road project. By analyzing the situation—through a study of the design and a visit to the actual location—audits can identify problem areas and recommend improvements. Specific objectives are to: . Minimize the risk of crashes on a new road project and minimize the severity of the crashes that do occur; . Minimize the risk of crashes on adjacent roads (that is, to avoid the possibility that the project creates crashes elsewhere on the network); . Ensure road safety for all road users, particularly slow moving traffic and pedestrians; . Reduce the long-term costs of a new road project (considering that unsafe designs may be expensive or even impossible to correct at a later stage); . Improve awareness of road safety engineering principles among all involved in road planning, design, construction, and maintenance. 417. By removing preventable crash producing elements (such as inappropriate intersection layouts) at the design stages and mitigating the effects of remaining problems by including suitable crash-reducing elements (such as anti-skid surfacing, crash barriers, and road signs), road safety audits provide a final and comprehensive safety check before a new road project or design scheme is built and put in use. Road safety audits will not necessarily make every new design completely safe, but they do help place safety higher on the decision making agenda and lead to deliberate decisions about safety aspects based on carefully considered advice. 41

ii. The Role of Auditing

418. Road safety audits are considered low-cost but effective means to evaluate specifc road sections in terms of safety concerns, and enable identifying (i) the extent or severity of the concerns or problems, (ii) potential impacts on specific user groups, (iii) under which circumstances (e.g., various types of weather, traffic congestion), and (iv) determine what mitigation measures can be utlized to reduce or eliminate the problems. 419. Importantly, defining user groups is an essential component of the road safety audits. Cars and light trucks, heavy trucks, motorized scooters and motorcycles, agricultural traffic, bicyclists, different age groups (e.g., school children, elderly), and physically-challenged are examples of various user groups. 420. A basic step in the process is to review accident occurrence and accident reports. Ths provides informantion on the frequency, type of accident (e.g., type of vehicle, pedestrians) , and the conditions (e.g., weather, traffic congestion, time of day/year) when the accident occurred. 421. A “best practice” approach to road safety audits is to establish an independent multi- disciplinary tearm. “Independent” means that project personnel can assist and participate but the

41 “Reducing Traffic Accidents in China: Strengthening the Use of Road Safety Audits,” Fei Deng, Phillip Jordan, and Mike Goodge, World Bank, Washington, DC, August 2012.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 112 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

team itself will be comprised of engineers, first responders (e.g., traffic police, emergency vehicle operators), and community/user group representatives. 422. Box 2.1 describes what RSAs are and are not. What is important to understan for the “are not” category is that RSAs can complement traditional design, planning, construction, and operation and maintenace stages of a road’s life. 423. China has a comprehensive set of road classifications and design standards that are utilized in the design and planning for new and rehabiliation projects. RSAs complement these national standards Box 2.1: Defining a Road Safety Audit

Source: Road Safety Audits Guidelines, USA Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., 2006.

424. Figure 2.1 highlights that different types of road safety audits can be conducted throughout the life of the road: from planning for a new road or rehabilitating an existing road, to design, to construction, to operations and maintenance. Through all phases, it is important that the necessary signage including warnings, and other key safety measures are operational.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 113 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

425. As shown in the figure, Development Project Road Safety Audit refers to investment project(s) that could impact traffic flows. For example, establishing a large manufacturing plant or a logistics center will generate considerable traffic from additional employees as well as transporting goods and services into and from the project. Figure 2.1: Road Safety Audits by Road Phase

Source: Road Safety Audits Guidelines, USA Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., 2006.

426. Road Safety Audits are a professional administrative tool that generates data that can be applied to road safety manaagement. Implementing the results of the audit depends on the commitment of the concerned agencies to address the issues.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 114 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

iii. Road Safety Audits Objectives: Safer Roads

427. The Planning and Design stages of road development/rehabilitation provide a window to incorporate safety features and mitigation measures in a timely and costt-effective manner. Specifically, planning and design need to focus on the following:  Reduce number and severity of crashes by using safer designs.  Reduce costs resulting from early identification and mitigation of safety issues before projects are built.  Improve awareness of safe design practices.  Increase opportunities to integrate multimodal safety strategies and proven safety countermeasures.  Expand ability to consider human factors in all facets of design.

428. However, planning and design are obviously linked to construction and operations and maintenance. The Asian Development Bank’s funded project, Yunnan Sustainable Road Maintenance (Sector) Project, states: 429. Poor trunk road conditions have also reduced road safety. In 2009, the risk of being killed in a road accident on the network was almost five times the rate in some developed countries— 30 fatalities per billion vehicle-kilometers, compared to about 6 in France and the 2 United Kingdom. Although the road fatality rate has fallen since 2004, it could rise again as traffic volume increases on older roads that are being ill-maintained and therefore becoming more dangerous to use.42 430. The project document continues with: 431. The implementation of safety audits has helped integrate safety aspects into all levels of decision making for new road projects and traffic schemes by road authorities around the world. With China building new roads, highways, and expressways at a pace unmatched in the world, the time is right to adopt road safety audits for the benefit of all road users. 432. The project will take steps to improve road safety on the subproject roads. Yunnan will coordinate road safety education activities with schools, village groups, and local governments after works are completed. The rehabilitation will include safety feature upgrades such as better signage, rumble strips, and improved grade and curve design. The safety features to be undertaken will be chosen based on an assessment procedure set out in the manual prepared for the project. The operational manual provides a guide for classifying safety risks as very high, high, moderate, and low, and prescribes the type and extent of the safety features needed to match the level of risk. Based on preliminary design, about 10% of the cost of the phase I subprojects will be allocated to safety features. Yunnan will conduct an independent road safety audit of all subprojects at the detailed design and completion stages.43

42 Asian Development Bank, Yunnan Sustainable Road Maintenance (Sector) Project, Report and Recommendation to the Board of Directors, Project Number: 45030-02, November 2013. 43 Asian Development Bank, Yunnan Sustainable Road Maintenance (Sector) Project, Report and Recommendation to the Board of Directors, Project Number: 45030-02, November 2013.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 115 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

433. The italicized preceeding two paragraphs highlight the need, benefits and comprehenive nature of Road Safety Audits. At one level, this may sound overly complex but the RSA is also a hands-on tool that when regularized can address more straight-forward safety issues such as rock falls, flooding due to clogged drainage, and slick road surfaces, all of which were found to be safety hazards in the mountainous areas of Yunna.44

iv. Road Safety Audits: Developing the Tool

434. The World Bank states: To strengthen the use of road safety audits for reducing traffic accidents and impacts, China could take advantage of the experience of other countries with more mature audit systems. Specifically, China is encouraged to:  Develop a comprehensive national audit standard. This Road Safety Audit Standard should not only include the technical aspects of audits, but more importantly also address institutional arrangements and procedures in the Chinese context.  Improve the technical guidelines for road safety audits. A practical road safety audit manual (supported by resources on DVD) will strengthen and streamline audits. China should select a style of manual that suits its needs and proceed quickly to develop a local Chinese audit manual.  Develop provincial road safety audit policies. Provincial road authorities without an audit policy should be encouraged to develop one. Policies can follow a basic template and reflect local resources and safety needs. In general, each province should consider the terms and conditions for the following three issues: making road safety mandatory, engaging fully independent audit teams, and legally enforcing proper actions to be taken in response to audit recommendations.  Provide training about road safety audits to project managers and auditors. Widespread trainings and workshops across the country, combined with a mentoring program for auditors (with experienced, possibly international auditors guiding new auditors), will be necessary for several years to increase awareness and skills among project managers and auditors.  Establish an accreditation system. A register of accredited auditors (either on a provincial or national basis) will provide reassurance to road authorities about auditor qualifications and support the development of an “audit profession” in China, with status and professionalism.45 435. China has been moving forward with Road Safety Audits as a component of the overall attention being given to road safety. Considerable resources are available through the Asian

44 Ibid. 45 “Reducing Traffic Accidents in China: Strengthening the Use of Road Safety Audits,” Fei Deng, Phillip Jordan, and Mike Goodge, World Bank, Washington, DC, August 2012.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 116 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Development Bank, World Bank, World Health Organization, and national programs such as the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and USA Federal Highway Administration.

C. Traffic Safety Measures for Pedestrians and Non-Motorized Vehicles

v. Introduction

436. As noted in previous sections, pedestrians and non-motorized riders are among the most vulnerable citizens. These are people that have no protection against a speeding car or truck. They die or are serioualy injured. Yet, most of us walk to work, to school, to the market and we are not really dealing with the fact that we walk and are vulnerable.

vi. Road Safety Audits

437. Well-designed pedestrian walkways, shared use paths, and sidewalks improve the safety and mobility of pedestrians. In some rural or suburban areas, where these types of walkways are not feasible, roadway shoulders provide an area for pedestrians to walk next to the roadway. 438. Rural road safety is a particular concern, because the majority of highway fatalities take place on rural roads. In 2012, 19 percent of the USA population lived in rural areas but rural road fatalities accounted for 54 percent of all fatalities. Even with reductions in the number of fatalities on the roadways, fatality rate in rural areas is 2.4 times higher than the fatality rate in urban areas.46 439. Addressing safety on local and rural roads presents several challenges including: 1) Safety issues are often random on local and rural roads; 2) Strategies to address local and rural road safety are diverse and draws from several safety areas. communities that support bicycling and walking are beoming a high priority in many countries because these transport modes are “green“ altlernatives to motorized transport. 440. RSAs can be conducted at any stage in a project’s life:

 A pre-construction RSA (planning and design stages) examines a road before it is built, at the planning/feasibility stage or the design (preliminary or detailed design) stage. An RSA at this stage identifies potential safety issues before crashes occur. For example, an existing bicycle route may approach an intersection widening project. Cyclists must be safely accommodated through the new geometric layout. The earlier a pre-construction RSA is conducted, the greater is the potential for designers to efficiently and effectively remedy possible safety concerns.  Construction RSAs (work zone, changes in design during construction, and pre-opening) examine temporary traffic management plans associated with construction, or other roadwork and changes in design during construction. For example, roadside construction barriers may eliminate a bicycle lane or available shoulder where cyclists ride, causing them to enter the mainline traffic stream. The RSA should assess the safety of cyclists under these conditions and examine measures to mitigate potential issues. RSAs can also be conducted when construction is completed but before the roadway is opened to traffic.

46 Road Safety Audits Guidelines, USA Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., 2016.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 117 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

 A post-construction or operational RSA (i.e., of an existing road) examines a road that is operating and is usually conducted to address a demonstrated crash risk. Many older roadways, in particular, were not designed with adequate consideration of the needs of bicyclists. Conducting an RSA on existing facilities presents opportunities to retroactively improve bicyclist safety and to consider the needs of bicyclists where cycling activity has increased since construction.47

441. Table 3.1 lists issues relating to a Road Safety Audit for pedestrians and non-motorized transport. Important throughout is recognizing and then adopting measures to reduce the vulnerability of these groups.

Table 3.1: Road Safety Audit Issues for Pedestrians and Non-motorized Transport

2. 47 FHWA Office of Safety, Proven Safety Countermeasures 2017.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 118 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Bicycle lane (off-road) Bicycle lane (on-road) Central hatching Clear roadside hazards (bike lane) Clear roadside hazards –driver side Clear roadside hazards – passenger side Delineation and signing (intersection) Footpath provision driver side Footpath provision passenger side (adjacent to road) Footpath provision driver side (informal pathc >1m) Footpath provision passenger side (>3 m from road) Informal footpath (>1 m from road) Footpath provision driver side (>3 m from road) Footpath provision passenger side (>3 m from road) Improve curve delineation Improve delineation Lane widening (>0.5 m) Parking improvements Pave road surface Pedestrian fencing Protected turn lane (unsignalized 3 leg) Refuge island Side road signalized pedestrian crossing Street lighting (intersection) Roadside barriers (bike lane)

Source: Environmental Monitoring Report, Semi-annual Report, PRC: Shaanxi Mountain Road Safety Demonstration Project, January 2019, ADB Manila.

442. As the table indicates, there are a number of measures that can improve safety for pedestrians and bicyclists. Many of these are relatively low cost and effective. Accompanying the measures is the need for enforcement of traffic laws and education about the rights and responsibilities of all road users. 443. Figure 3.1 shows what happens when traffic laws are not enforced. The cars blocking the footpaths can force pedestrians off footpaths and into the road, which increases the likelihood for accidents. Parking is an issue in Xiangyang and more needs to be done to resolve it for all road users.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 119 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 3.1: Cars blocking footpaths

444. The Road Safety Audit for pedestrians and non-motorized transport is an important tool to make streets safer and improve the quality of life for all residents. The audit is straight-forward and can be expanded beyond what is shown in Table 3.1 in order to reflect the specific contions and circumstances.

D. Traffic Safety Measures for Vehicles

vii. Introduction

445. This section presents Road Safety Audits for vehicles. As with the previous section on pedestrian and non-motorized vehicles, the safety audit can be conducted at any stage in poject development.

viii. Road Safety Audit For Vehicles

446. ADB has initiated two recent projects that have very focused and extensive safety features. The first is in the Qinba Mountains in Shaanxi. The project area contains many high- risk roads with significant traffic volume and a mix of heavy vehicles, automobiles, motorcycles, non-motorized vehicles and pedestrians. An initial assessment of road crashes in the Qinba Mountains area indicates a crash rate about 4 times the national average for roads of similar class in the PRC. Fatality rates are also exceptionally high at over 12 times the average rate reported for national highways of the same class.48 447. Road deaths have large economic and social costs that fall disproportionately on the poor. For a 1,000 kilometers (km) sample of roads in the project area, there were over 500 road fatalities

48 Shaanxi Mountain Road Safety Demonstration Project PPTA, Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Final Report, TA-8440-PRC, March 2015, Manila.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 120 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

between 2007 and 2012 with an estimated economic cost of CNY1.4 billion ($228 million equivalent). The PRC Government reports that only 28% of road deaths are car or truck drivers. The rest are pedestrians (26%), bicycle riders (17%), and motorcycle riders (28%), and others (1%), which are the travel modes most often used by the poor. Reducing road crashes and related impacts will contribute to inclusive economic growth and poverty alleviation in the region.49 448. A comprehensive road safety program has been designed and will include (i) road safety investments on an additional 569.66 km of roads in southeast Shaanxi, (ii) improved capacity of road safety unit in Shaanxi Provincial Transport Department (SPTD) and local traffic bureaus, and (iii) a road safety education campaign. The project will introduce the International Road Assessment Program (iRAP) assessment methodology (http://www.irap.net/about-irap- 3/methodology) to guide the road safety design and monitoring processes. The project will demonstrate the impact of rigorous and data driven road safety assessment and design practices to reduce crash rates and provide a model that can be replicated in other provinces as well as in other developing countries. An initial assessment of roads in the project area indicates that most of these roads require improved delineation and signage, intersection improvements, installation of well-designed roadside barriers, traffic calming, pedestrian crossing upgrades, and footpaths to protect pedestrians in towns and villages along the roads.50 449. Targeted awareness campaigns for specific risk factors (improper licensing, non-use of helmet, non-use of seat belts, excessive speed, drinking and driving) will be implemented in local communities. The road safety recommendations for trunk roads may include: realignments, roadside safety barriers, barrier ends, increased lane widths (at certain sections), improved pavements, paved shoulders, curve delineation signs, vehicle activated signs, enhanced skid resistance, lateral vibration lines, speed humps, reflectorized markers (cat-eyes), warning piles, road signs, pedestrian crossings, flashing yellow lights, tunnel entry delineation, marked parking areas for buses, ditch shape improvements, footpaths in village sections, protection works are highway and ail intersections, anti-stone nets, and separation of residential areas and roads.51 450. The road safety recommendations considered for rural roads include: roadside safety barriers, increased lane widths (at certain sections), improved pavements, paved shoulders, enhanced skid resistance, lateral vibration lines, speed humps, warning piles, road signs, pedestrian crossings, flashing yellow lights, village entry treatments, marked parking areas for buses, ditch shape improvements and passing points.52 451. An interesting outcome of two of the project’s major roads is that for G316, the EIRR without the safety components was less that 12% but jumped to 25% with the safety component, and the benefit:cost ratio for the safety investments was 8.3. Similarly, S224 had a satisfactory EIRR (e.g., 12+%) without the saftey components but the jumped to 27% with the safety

49 Ibid. 50 Ibid. 51 Shaanxi Mountain Road Safety Demonstration Project PPTA, Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Final Report, TA-8440-PRC, March 2015, Manila.

52 Ibid.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 121 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

components, and the benefit:cost ratio was 6.4. In other words, safety features that reduce accidents, injuries, and fatalities are sound viable investments.53 452. Recent efforts to improve road safety include the China Road Assessment Program (ChinaRAP) which provides the basis to rate roads in terms of dangerous conditions and potentail for accidents. “Walk Wise”, a school road safety program in Sichuan Province is being expanded to include Chongqin, and was estimated to have 80,000 students in 80 primary schools in 2016,54 453. A second ADB project is in Inner Mongolia and upgrades the provincial highway from Manzhouli to Alatanemole from class III to half-class-I standard; and improving safety of the provincial highway by introducing measures including road markings, signage, speed controlled junction design, barriers and underpasses for animals, designated parking, viewing points, and service areas.55 454. Table 4.1 lists various safety features aimed to reduce accidents. All of these features are important and will reduce accidents, injuries and fatalities. Moreover, many of these features are relatively low cost and are effective in reducing accidents.

53 Ibid. 54 Ibid. 55 Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors, Project Number: 43029, Proposed Loan and Technical Assistance Grant, People’s Republic of China: Inner Mongolia Road Development Project, September 2013, Manila.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 122 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Table 4.1: Safety Features for Vehicles

Roadside barriers – driver side Roadside barriers – passenger side Roundabout Shoulder sealing driver side (<1 m) Shoulder sealing driver side (> 1 m) Shoulder sealing passenger side (<1 m) Shoulder sealing passenger side (> 1 m) Side road signalized pedestrian crossing Side road unsignalized pedestrian crossing Sight distance (obstruction removal) Skid resistance (paved road) Skid resistance (unpaved road) Street lighting (intersection) Street lighting (mid-block) Traffic calming Unsignalized crossing Upgrade pedestrian facility quality Enhanced delineation and friction for hoizontal curves Longitudinal rumble strips on two-lane roads Wide centerline

Source: Environmental Monitoring Report, Semi-annual Report, PRC: Shaanxi Mountain Road Safety Demonstration Project, January 2019, ADB Manila.

455. Some of the more effective safety features include rumble strips/stripes and other delineation methods and paved shoulders that indicate when a vehicle is leaving a lane or pavement. Figure 4.1 shows rumble stripes that alert the driver that the vehicle is exiting the lane. Again, these are relatively low cost but effective safety measures. Roadway departures typically account for more than half of all fatalities.56

56 FHWA Office of Safety, Proven Safety Countermeasures 2017.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 123 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure 4.1: Rumble Stripes

Source: Missouri (state) Department of Transportation. 457. The Road Safety Audit can be conducted at any stage of the project development cycle. Incorporating safety features during the early stages (e.g., planning, design) tends to be more cost-effective but safety freatures can be added at any stage. 458. For vehicle safety, the following are key:  Enhanced Delineation; and  Roadside Design Improvements to Provide for a Safe Recovery;  Roadside Design Improvements to Reduce Crash Severity;  Increased Pavement Friction.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 124 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

E. Traffic Safety: Conclusions

459. A Road Safety Audit (RSA) is a process that enables the safe definition of the road for all road users. RSA can be utilized at any stage of the road’s life: planning, construction, maintenance, and rehabilitation. 460. As the number and variety of road users increases and traffic volumes also rise, it is especially important an RSA be applied frequently in order to ensure that potential hazards are remedied before there are many accidents. 461. As previous sections discussed, accident rates are falling in a number of countries including China. There are a number of factors contributing to the falling rates, including enforcement of drunk driving laws, speeding laws, using seat belts, increasing driver awareness, improved signage and signaling. 462. However, while rates may be falling, the cost of accidents to families and national GDP. A number of countries lose 3-5% of their GDP. 463. This highlights the need for a continuous public education and information program to ensure all road users are aware of their responsibilities and how they can improve safety for themselves as well as all other road users.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 125 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

APPENDIX C MODELING AND DATABASE DEVELOPMENT

A Introduction

464. Although not included in the Terms of Reference, we have undertaken collecting mobile phone data from China Telecom (21.94% of all mobile phone users) and applying the data to determine transport demand. We have demonstrated that you can use the data for planning and if collected over a period it would be an excellent tool for monitoring what is happening. We were learning with respect to telco data and so was the supplier- we both made mistakes. We could – as an additional piece of work – set up the XMTB and/or the bus company (which was unsuccessful in developing a similar exercise) with the transport planning software and specify data to be collected on a (say) 6 monthly basis that would provide the data needed for planning road improvements, public transport services, etc/ into the future and also to be able to monitor the success of the initiatives and implemented actions. 465. Again, this exercise is the first step in developing a cost-effective and time-sensitive (real time) database for transport planning. Over time, the database can be expanded to include specific origin:destination nodes such as school and government complexes, and manufacturing and logistics operations. In terms of cost-effectiveness, it should also be noted that this TA did not provide sufficient time or resources to conduct detailed traffic counts and surveys. Moreover, the XMTB has not developed a traffic database, and the mobile phone database offers a reasonable cost alternative to traffic counts and traffic surveys. 466. For the reader’s convenience, we have included a list of abbreviations and references unique to the modelling exercise. ABBREVIATIONS & REFERENCES OD Origin/Destination

TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone

XY XiangYang

HB Hubei Province

PA Traffic Production means traffic demand generated from the TAZ; Traffic (Production/Attraction) Attraction means traffic demand attracted by the TAZ

The central area of XY prefecture, including 3 districts of Fancheng, Xiangyang City Xiangcheng, and Xiangzhou

The whole administrative area of Xiangyang, including 3 districts, 3 cities Xiangyang Prefecture and 3 couties

TransCAD Modeling software

AIPT Xiangyang Airport

XYRS Xiangyang Railway Station

Transport Plan (2020) Page 126 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

XYERS Xiangyang East Railway Station

GC Guangcai Logistics Park

SJQ Sijiqing Logistics Park

TJT Tongjitang Logistics Park

YC Yicheng Logistics Park

B Brief Summary of Phone User Data

467. OD data has been acquired, derived from mobile phone users’ data of China Telecom, which covers 21.94% of all mobile users. The data includes OD of TAZs within Xiangyang prefecture and OD of TAZs consisting of Xiangyang Prefecture and the rest regions of Hubei Province. 468. Data analysis has been made for those raw data, and then a model has been established for TAZs in Xiangyang by using TransCAD – modeling software, key results are shown as below. 469. Total trips (all modes) and average travel time are shown in the table below: Peak time is 7:00am~8:00am in the morning, and 17:00pm~18:00pm in the afternoon. Peak hour percentage is 8.92% (7:00am~8:00am). Table C.1: Total trips and average travel time by hours Time-Hour Total Trips(All Modes) AvgTravelTime（Hour) 0 706 0.72 1 2510 0.65 2 2327 0.67 3 2421 0.67 4 2757 0.72 5 5716 0.92 6 22020 1.10 7 41529 1.08 8 38015 1.08 9 29712 1.04 10 26762 1.02 11 26398 0.93 12 22315 0.99 13 25088 1.06 14 26961 1.04 15 25037 1.02

Transport Plan (2020) Page 127 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

16 27020 0.93 17 35204 0.84 18 32184 1.03 19 20077 1.07 20 16064 1.15 21 12356 1.24 22 8592 1.27 23 13670 1.08

SumTrips 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 SumTrips 15000 10000 5000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

AvgTravelTime (hours) 1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60 AvgTravelTime

0.40

0.20

0.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Transport Plan (2020) Page 128 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

C Model for Xiangyang Prefecture

470. Xiangyang prefecture is divided into 37 TAZs according to the administration areas and Urban/Rural areas. TAZs are shown as below (filled areas means urban areas, unfilled means rural areas):

Transport Plan (2020) Page 129 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.1: TAZs definition – by zone ID

Figure C.2: TAZs definition – by zone names

Transport Plan (2020) Page 130 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Table C.2: Index of TAZs in XY

TAZ Code Type Administration

FanCheng-01 FC01 Urban FanCheng FanCheng-02 FC02 Rurual FanCheng FanCheng-03 FC03 Rurual FanCheng XiangCheng-01 XC01 Urban XiangCheng

XiangCheng-02 XC02 Rurual XiangCheng

XiangCheng-03 XC03 Rurual XiangCheng

Xiangzhou-01 XZ01 Urban Xiangzhou

Xiangzhou-02 XZ02 Rurual Xiangzhou

Xiangzhou-03 XZ03 Rurual Xiangzhou

Xiangzhou-04 XZ04 Rurual Xiangzhou LaoHeKou-01 LHK01 Urban LaoHeKou LaoHeKou-02 LHK02 Rurual LaoHeKou LaoHeKou-03 LHK03 Rurual LaoHeKou LaoHeKou-04 LHK04 Rurual LaoHeKou ZaoYang-01 ZY01 Urban ZaoYang ZaoYang-02 ZY02 Rurual ZaoYang ZaoYang-03 ZY03 Rurual ZaoYang ZaoYang-04 ZY04 Rurual ZaoYang ZaoYang-05 ZY05 Rurual ZaoYang GuCheng-01 GC01 Urban GuCheng GuCheng-02 GC02 Rurual GuCheng GuCheng-03 GC03 Rurual GuCheng GuCheng-04 GC04 Rurual GuCheng YiCheng-01 YC01 Urban YiCheng YiCheng-02 YC02 Rurual YiCheng YiCheng-03 YC03 Rurual YiCheng YiCheng-04 YC04 Rurual YiCheng YiCheng-05 YC05 Rurual YiCheng BaoKang-01 BK01 Urban BaoKang BaoKang-02 BK02 Rurual BaoKang

Transport Plan (2020) Page 131 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

BaoKang-03 BK03 Rurual BaoKang BaoKang-04 BK04 Rurual BaoKang NanZhang-01 NZ01 Urban NanZhang NanZhang-02 NZ02 Rurual NanZhang NanZhang-03 NZ03 Rurual NanZhang NanZhang-04 NZ04 Rurual NanZhang NanZhang-05 NZ05 Rurual NanZhang

471. The road network of Xiangyang Prefecture has also been established in TransCAD, shown as below:

Figure C.3: Road network of Xiangyang Prefecture

472. Traffic Production/Attraction forecast (Year 2035) for all-modes transportation in Xiangyang Prefecture are shown as below, which indicates the main traffic demand will be generated from the central area of Xiangyang City, meanwhile, traffic demand in Zaoyang and Laohekou will be obviously higher than the rest regions of Xiangyang Prefecture, thus, the east part of Xiangyang Prefecture will have more traffic demand in the future compared with the west part of the prefecture.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 132 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.4: Traffic Production/Attraction (All modes, by 2035)

473. The forecast preferred lines for all-modes transportation in Xiangyang Prefecture are shown as below (preferred lines with small value have been deleted ). The preferred lines shows that main traffic demand will be generated among the 3 central areas of Xiangyang City, especially Fancheng Dsitrict - Xiangzhou District and Fancheng District - Xiangcheng District. Besides, traffic demand between the urban area of each city/county and the rural areas in Gucheng, Zaoyang, Laohekou, and Yicheng is also considerably high. It’s worth noting, apart from the 3 districts (Fancheng, Xiangzhou, Xiangcheng), traffic demand crossing borders of cities/counties is much lower than the internal demand between the urban area and the rural areas of each city/county, which indicates that for all subsidiary cities/counties of Xiangyang Prefecture, the main traffic will still be internal traffic rather than external traffic.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 133 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.5: Preferred lines of all modes transportation – Future (by 2035)

474. Traffic Production/Attraction forecast (Year 2035) for vehicles transportation in Xiangyang Prefecture is shown as below, which indicates main traffic volume will be generated within the center area of the prefecture, including Fancheng, Xiangzhou and Xiangcheng districts, and of them Fancheng is the one with highest traffic production and attraction in the future, and again like all-modes traffic forecast, the east/north part of Xiangyang Prefecture will have more traffic demand than the west/south part of the prefecture.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 134 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.6: Traffic Production/Attraction (Vehicles, by 2035)

Table C.3: Current and Future Traffic Production/Attraction of TAZs in XY (Mode: Vehicles, Unit: PCU/Peak Hour) Current Future TAZ Production Attraction Production Attraction BK01 491 473 747 720 BK02 323 315 491 479 BK03 461 454 701 691 BK04 592 614 888 921 FC01 15572 16395 23357 24591 FC02 3247 3201 4870 4802 FC03 1251 1190 1876 1785 GC01 2157 2210 3368 3451 GC02 1721 1669 2688 2606 GC03 1899 1858 2964 2901 GC04 651 604 1016 943 LHK01 1575 1594 2363 2391 LHK02 1041 1009 1562 1513 LHK03 637 633 956 949

Transport Plan (2020) Page 135 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

LHK04 984 990 1476 1485 NZ01 1533 1557 2343 2379 NZ02 1073 1029 1640 1573 NZ03 1041 1043 1591 1594 NZ04 1197 1160 1829 1773 NZ05 622 598 950 914 XC01 7300 7115 10689 10419 XC02 929 895 1360 1311 XC03 1395 1387 2043 2031 XZ01 11252 11345 17184 17327 XZ02 2411 2297 3683 3509 XZ03 1298 1243 1982 1899 XZ04 1980 1921 3024 2934 YC01 1841 1838 2756 2750 YC02 776 758 1161 1135 YC03 821 815 1229 1220 YC04 824 788 1233 1179 YC05 589 570 882 852 ZY01 2376 2414 3726 3785 ZY02 1099 1024 1724 1606 ZY03 1203 1129 1886 1771 ZY04 1027 1114 1611 1746 ZY05 662 600 1038 941 Total 75853 75853 114888 114878

475. The current and forecast preferred lines for vehicles transportation in Xiangyang Prefecture are shown as below (preferred lines with small value have been deleted ), which indicates the main demand is, and will still be the traffic among the three districts located in the center of Xiangyang, including Fancheng, Xiangcheng and Xiangzhou. Especially the demand between Fancheng and XiangZhou is the highest. It’s worth noting that traffic demand between Fancheng District and the south part of Xiangzhou District will be significantly increased in the future, mainly due to the development of Dongjin New Town and Xiangyang Dongjin Railway Station.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 136 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.7: Preferred lines of vehicles transportation – Current

Figure C.8: Preferred lines of vehicles transportation – Future

Transport Plan (2020) Page 137 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

476. The results of traffic assignment are shown as below (Volume/Capacity from high to low: black-red-yellow-green), which indicates the inbound and outbound roads of Xiangyang City (the central area of the prefecture) will undertake most of the traffic demand in the future. The closer to the center, the higher traffic volume will be, particularly, the urban area of Fancheng district will have more pressure compared with other areas. Besides, with the rapid growth of Dongjin New Town, this area will produce and attract more traffic demand in the future, and it will bring pressure on the road network of the area, especially the crossing-river corridors.

Figure C.9: Traffic assignment of vehicles transportation – Current

Transport Plan (2020) Page 138 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.10: Traffic assignment of vehicles transportation – Future

Transport Plan (2020) Page 139 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

D Model for Xiangyang and Hubei Province

477. The data between cities of Xiangyang and the rest regions of Hubei Province has also been analyzed, traffic zones divided as below:

Figure C.11: Traffic zones of Hubei Province, defined by IDs

478. The index of TAZs and corresponding IDs are shown as the table below.

Table C.4: Index for TAZs of Hubei Province

ID TAZ Name TAZ Code

1 恩施 ENSHI HB-ES 2 十堰 SHIYAN HB-SY

3 神龙架 SHENLONGJIA HB-SLJ

4 宜昌 YICHANG HB-YC

5 襄阳-保康 XY-BAOKANG XY-BK

6 襄阳-谷城 XY-GUCHENG XY-GC

7 荆州 JINGZHOU HB-JZ

8 襄阳-南漳 XY-NANZHANG XY-NZ

Transport Plan (2020) Page 140 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

9 襄阳-老河口 XY-LAOHEKE XY-LHK

10 襄阳-襄阳市 XY-XIANGYANG CITY XY-XY

11 荆门 JINGMEN HB-JM

12 襄阳-宜城 XY-YICHENG XY-YC

13 襄阳-枣阳 XY-ZAOYANG XY-ZY

14 潜江 QIANJIANG HB-QJ

15 天门 TIANMEN HB-TM

16 随州 SUIZHOU HB-SZ

17 仙桃 XIANTAO HB-XT

18 孝感 XIAOGAN HB-XG

19 咸宁 XIANNING HB-XN

20 武汉 WUHAN HB-WH

21 黄冈 HUANGGANG HB-HG

22 鄂州 EZHOU HB-EZ

23 黄石 HUANGSHI HB-HS

479. The future traffic generation (Production/Attraction) is shown as below(only including the traffic inbound/outbound of XY prefecture, excluding the traffic within XY prefecture and between the other regions of HB province), which indicates XY city (Fancheng, Xiangzhou and Xiangcheng districts) is the main O/D for inbound/outbound traffic, while Zaoyang and Yicheng are the second and third largest in the prefecture. Within the other regions of Hubei Province, Wuhan is the largest O/D of inbound/outbound traffic, while Shiyan, Jingmen, Yichang, and Suizhou are also main O/D. Obviously, Wuhan has the largest traffic production/attraction to XY because of its special economic and political location in Hubei Province, and the main reason for the other four cities with big traffic production/attraction is they are linked to XY prefecture geographically.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 141 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.1: The inbound/outbound traffic production/attraction of XY prefecture

Table C.5: Current and Future Traffic Production/Attraction of TAZs in HB （Mode: All modes Unit: Trips/per day） Current Future TAZ Production Attraction Production Attraction HB-ES 311 196 1061 669 HB-SY 6588 6024 22404 20486 HB-SLJ 393 456 1235 1433 HB-YC 2923 2648 9666 8756 XY-BK 1502 1497 5198 5181 XY-GC 1773 1587 6004 5375 HB-JZ 1093 1139 3607 3759 XY-NZ 1168 1135 4022 3909 XY-LHK 1683 1545 5727 5257 XY-XY 16722 16111 55523 53495 HB-JM 4674 4963 14960 15885 XY-YC 2994 2911 10124 9843 XY-ZY 4945 3989 16816 13565 HB-QJ 168 107 525 334 HB-TM 137 164 458 548 HB-SZ 2972 2975 9772 9782 HB-XT 143 150 473 496

Transport Plan (2020) Page 142 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

HB-XG 1072 1068 3491 3478 HB-XN 187 182 611 595 HB-WH 7314 10032 24718 33903 HB-HG 422 380 1395 1256 HB-EZ 86 114 281 372 HB-HS 292 189 847 548

480. Current preferred lines shown as below (internal traffic within Xiangyang prefecture excluded.), which shows the traffic demand of Xiangyang City (including Fancheng, Xiangzhou and Xiangcheng districts) - Wuhan, Xiangyang City - Shiyan, Xiangyang City - Jingmen; and the traffic demand of Zaoyang - Wuhan, Zaoyang – Suizhou, are the main traffic desire lines.

Figure C.13: Current desire lines between XY and the other regions of HB province

481. The future desire lines are shown as below, which indicates the traffic demand in the future (by year 2035) between those cities of XY prefecture and the rest regions of Hubei province. Traffic demand between Xiangyang City and Wuhan,Shiyan,Jingmen,Suizhou,Yichang is higher than other ODs, which indicates Xiangyang City (Central area of Xiangyang Prefecture) will be the main OD for inbound/outbound traffic. Besides, traffic demand between Zaoyang and Wuhan, Shiyan, between Yicheng and Wuhan is also outstanding, which indicates Zaoyang will be another traffic interchange in the future.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 143 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.14: Future preferred lines between XY and the other regions of HB province

E Modeling for interchanges

482. The modeling sub-component has selected key interchanges in XY , including the airport, Xiangyang Railway Station, Xiangyang East Railway Station as passenger interchanges; and Guangcai Logistics Park, Tongjitang Logistics Park, Sijiqing Logistics Park, and Yicheng Logistics Park as freight transport interchanges, to establish models by treating every interchange as a single TAZ. 483. The average travel time from or to the airport is much less than that from or to XZ01 (the closest TAZ to the airport), which indicates, people will choose faster transport mode when accessing the airport, it’s especially outstanding for arrival passengers from the airport. As shown in the figures below.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 144 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Difference:To_XZ01 VS To_AIRP 100.00%

80.00%

60.00%

40.00%

20.00%

0.00% ZY01 ZY03 ZY05 FC01 FC03 XZ02 XZ04 YC02 YC04 XC01 XC03 BK01 BK03

-20.00% NZ02 NZ04 GC02 GC04 LHK02 LHK04 -40.00%

Figure C.15: Difference of average travel time between from-TAZs- to- XZ01 and from- TAZs-to-the-airport. (Positive means more travel time for trips to XZ01)

Difference:From_XZ01 VS From_AIRP 1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 ZY01 ZY03 ZY05 XZ02 XZ04 FC01 FC03 YC02 YC04 XC01 XC03 BK01 BK03

-0.2 NZ02 NZ04 GC02 GC04 LHK02 LHK04 -0.4

Figure C.16: Difference of average travel time between from-XZ01-to-TAZs and from- the- airport-to-TAZs.

484. The average travel time from/to XY Railway Station and XY East Railway Station is much less than that from/to XZ01 (the TAZ close to railway stations), the pattern is especially outstanding for XY East Railway Station, this also indicates that passengers will chose faster transport mode when accessing the railway stations. As shown in the figures below.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 145 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Difference:To_XZ01 VS To_XYRS 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20% ZY01 ZY03 ZY05 XZ02 XZ04 FC01 FC03 YC02 YC04 XC01 XC03 BK01 BK03 NZ02 NZ04 GC02 GC04 LHK02 LHK04 -40%

-60%

-80%

Figure C.17: Difference of average travel time between from-TAZs-to-XZ01 and from- TAZs-to-XY Railway Station.

Difference:From_XZ01 VS From_XYRS 100.0%

80.0%

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%

-20.0% ZY01 ZY03 ZY05 XZ02 XZ04 FC01 FC03 YC02 YC04 XC01 XC03 BK01 BK03 NZ02 NZ04 GC02 GC04 LHK02 LHK04 -40.0%

-60.0%

Figure C.18: Difference of average travel time between from-XZ01-to-TAZs and from- XY Railway Station-to-TAZs.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 146 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Difference:To_XZ01 VS To_XYERS 0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

-0.2

-0.4

Figure C.19: Difference of average travel time between from-TAZs-to-XZ01 and from- TAZs-to-XY East Railway Station.

Difference:From_XZ01 VS From_XYERS 1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

-0.2 ZY01 ZY03 ZY05 FC01 FC03 XZ02 XZ04 YC02 YC04 XC01 XC03 BK01 BK03 NZ02 NZ04 GC02 GC04 LHK02 LHK04 -0.4

Figure C.20: Difference of average travel time between from-XZ01-to-TAZs and from- XY East Railway Station-to-TAZs.

485. The preferred lines of passenger interchanges including AIRP, XYERS and XYRS, shows most of the traffic will be generated from Fancheng, Xiangzhou and Xiangcheng districts, thus the urban area of Xiangyang Prefecture. Meanwhile, the AIRP has greater coverage compared with railway stations, which indicates, the airplane is still the major transport mode for long-distance trips in XY Prefecture, this can also be supported by the passenger volume data of the airport, it’s

Transport Plan (2020) Page 147 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001) been reported that the passenger volume has exceeded 1 million by 26/07/2019 (from 01/01/2019), which is 71% of the total annual volume of 2018, and 19.26% year-on-year growth. Xiangyang Airport has become the third largest airport in Hubei Province, and it will keep increasing sharply with the upgrades of the facilities. As shown in the figures below.

Figure C.21: Preferred lines of AIRP

Transport Plan (2020) Page 148 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.22: Preferred lines of XYERS

Figure C.23: Desire lines of XYRS

Transport Plan (2020) Page 149 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

486. The assignment of traffic generated by the logistics parks including GC, TJT, SJQ and YC, indicates that most of the traffic will be through the main roads within the central area of XY, this will affect the urban traffic by the mixed flow of passenger and freight transport, and also contribute to urban traffic congestions. This problem is related to the layout planning of logistics facilities.

Figure C.24: Traffic assignment of GC

Transport Plan (2020) Page 150 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.2: Traffic assignment of SJQ

Figure C.26: Traffic assignment of TJT

Transport Plan (2020) Page 151 of 154 TA-9547 PRC: Hubei Xiangyang Comprehensive Transportation and Logistics Planning and Strategic Study- 01 (51029-001)

Figure C.27: Traffic assignment of YC

487. While this chapter may seem somewhat abstract and technical, it illustrates that utilizing mobile phone data for transport planning is possible, and importantly, it enables real time data and traffic volumes at a very reasonable cost. Other cities in for example, China and New Zealand are developing traffic databases for transport planning utilizing mobile phone data, and it is worth considering as a follow up activity. 488. Most importantly for this study, it shows that the relocation of government activities to the new city centre is unlikely to have a significant impact on the need to address congestion within the current urban area. On the other hand it will create a demand for new services linking the new and old centres and the industrial areas to the North. The distances involved are significant, indicating the need for express and limited stop services such as regional heavy or light rail or superbus-type services.

Transport Plan (2020) Page 152 of 154