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The Covid-19 Pandemic Its Impact on Georgia and Beyond to Our Readers

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The Covid-19 Pandemic Its Impact on Georgia and Beyond to Our Readers THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ITS IMPACT ON GEORGIA AND BEYOND TO OUR READERS We are pleased to present you the first issue of The Journal of Frontline Democracy, published by Economic Policy Research Center and Fukuyama Democracy Frontline Center. We decided to create this journal to offer our readers a selection of the best articles written within the framework of the research and analysis work of our centers. In this journal, you will have the opportunity to get acquainted with the views and opinions of Georgian as well as foreign experts and decision- makers on both global and regional issues. THE PUBLICATION WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE BLACK SEA TRUST, A PROJECT OF THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES. OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS PUBLICATION DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THOSE OF THE BLACK SEA TRUST OR ITS PARTNERS. © ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH CENTER 2020 CONTENT 5 Introduction VIEWS FROM GEORGIA: 11 The Pandemic Outlook: Economic Impact and Implications for Georgia – Irina Guruli 33 Lessons from Pandemic for Social Protection System of Georgia – Andrew Urushadaze 43 Post-Pandemic: Rethinking and Rearranging the Critical Infrastructure in Georgia – Batu Kutelia 55 The Post-Pandemic Characteristics of Global Order: A Georgian Perspective – Grigol Mgaloblishvili 65 Contemporary security environment and future trends in the times of pandemics – Shota Gvineria FROM MOSCOW: 81 Russia’s Corona Challenge: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications; Russia-Georgia Relationship in the Pandemic Context – Lilia Shevtsova 95 Russia as The Global Challenge – Lilia Shevtsova FROM THE STATES: 117 The Pandemic, Democracy and the United States: Implications for the Black Sea Region – David J.Kramer 125 Transatlantic Relations: From Bad To Worse To What Next? – David J.Kramer INTRODUCTION As this publication goes to print, there are more than 43 million cases of COVID-19 in the world, including more than 1.1 million deaths, according to the World Health Organization. The COVID-19 pandemic certainly outstrips by a wide margin the SARS, MERS, Swine Flu and Ebola outbreaks earlier this century. Some compare the current pandemic to the Spanish Flu in 1918-19, which ultimately claimed some 40-50 million lives. The race for a vaccine, one hopes, will keep the fatality numbers well below those of the Spanish Flu. But some countries have suffered staggering losses. The United States holds the ignoble distinction as the country suffering from the most deaths due to the virus, with more than 230,000 victims, and with the highest number of cases of infection, nearly 9 million. To understand the abysmal failure in handling the pandemic by the current administration, one simply needs to look at the numbers: the U.S. represents four percent of the world’s population and yet has some 21 percent of the total number of cases in the world and 20 percent of the fatalities due to COVID-19. Brazil and India follow, though other countries such as Russia are thought to undercount their losses in human lives by significant margins. As of October 261, Georgia has experienced a huge increase in cases in the fall after keeping the numbers incredibly low earlier in the year. The country registered more than 30,300 cases (a number that has roughly quadrupled since late September) and 215 deaths (a figure that is nearly seven times the toll in late September). For purposes of comparison, neighboring Armenia, a country with a million fewer people than Georgia, has registered more than 78,100 cases and close to 1,200 deaths; Azerbaijan, with 2.5 times the population of Georgia, has close to 50,000 cases with 671 reported deaths. Georgia, in other words, had been a leader in containing the spread of the virus and aiding those who have been infected, as several authors in this publication have noted. Irina Guruli, in her essay, provides a very useful timeline of the various steps the Georgian government, working together with civil society and others, took early on in the crisis. That said, Georgia is experiencing a significant increase in infections in the fall, as a second wave hitting the country – and the rest of the world – is proving to be much worse for Georgia than the first wave in the spring and summer. 1 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. 5 The recent jump in cases in Georgia arrives at a tense time with the country preparing for parliamentary elections October 31. Election officials should provide safe conditions for voting, ensuring that Georgians do not have to choose between exercising their right to vote and staying alive; the same, of course, applies to Americans with their upcoming elections. Despite keeping the number of cases and deaths low, relatively speaking, earlier in the year, the shutdown of Georgia’s borders exacted a significant toll on the country’s economy. Tourism, a key to many Georgians’ livelihood, has been devastated by the pandemic, with many foreigners unable to travel to sightsee and explore. In her chapter, Guruli cites decline in the second quarter of 12.6 percent; the six-month average is negative 5.8 percent. She notes a forecast of approximately 4-5% shrinkage of Georgian GDP for all of 2020. Georgia, certainly, is not alone in suffering economically from the pandemic and its effects. By taking serious measures early on, however, Georgia not only kept the numbers down of people infected but avoided having to shift major public spending toward emergency health care. If that continues, Georgia might emerge from the crisis in better shape than other states in the region. A key to such recovery will be a return of foreign tourists – and the ability of Georgian officials to handle the new wave of infections. In his essay, Andrew Urushadze describes the social and economic impact of the pandemic globally, and in Georgia. Citing a World Bank assessment, Urushadze writes that global gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to shrink by 5.2% this year, which is the worst decline in the past 150 years. Citing UN estimates, he notes that some 130 million people worldwide face the threat of extreme poverty. In Georgia, Urushadze describes the toll the pandemic and the response to it have taken: “Thousands of people have been left without jobs and daily income. Rising prices on food products and items of daily consumption have further aggravated the situation of poor families and elderlies, people with disabilities, unemployed workers and people working in informal sector.” Batu Kutelia, in his essay, argues that the pandemic poses opportunities as well as challenges for Georgia when it comes to infrastructure. “COVID-19 provides a perfect opportunity to conceptually rethink the critical infrastructure network in Georgia.,” he writes. “’Resilience’ is the key word used for describing the effective outcome of the critical infrastructure policies. Resilience can be defined as the capacity of critical infrastructure to absorb a disturbance, recover from disruptions and adapt to changing conditions, while still retaining essentially the same function as prior to the disruptive shock.” 6 Grigol Mgaloblishvili offers an important reminder from a Georgian perspective in his essay on the pandemic’s impact on the global order: “There is a growing concern that “the pandemic is in danger of becoming an unlimited excuse that can be used to justify increasing restrictions on personal freedoms and greater intervention in different spheres of everyday life.” The upcoming parliamentary elections pose the immediate test of this concern. Mgaloblishvili goes on to state that the pandemic poses other challenges and “small states with fragile institutions, such as Georgia, will face enormous challenges in navigating the uncharted waters of disrupted geo-political realities.” The pandemic, he warns, “will significantly inflame tensions in the international environment and, as a result, will considerably increase security risks in and around Georgia.” That is a theme that Shota Gvineria picks up on in his contribution to this report, where he focuses on the Euro-Atlantic security order and broader security challenges. He rightly acknowledges that some of the challenges heightened by the pandemic have been around for a while. “[T]he countries bordering the Russian Federation in the so-called Eastern flank see Russia’s aggressive policies as an existential threat,” he argues. “In contrast, among the countries of Western and Southern Europe, there is more focus on cooperation opportunities with Russia, while threats are often seen as exaggerated.” Gvineria worries that the pandemic will lead to a reduction in defense spending needed to confront and deter a variety of threats. “Authoritarian regimes,” he writes, “are historically less reluctant in cutting military expenditures during crises as they experience less pressure from public opinion in times of socioeconomic difficulties.” One such regime of great interest to Georgia and others, of course, is Russia. One of that country’s best analysts, Lilia Shevtsova, takes issue with much of the analysis to date on Russia. “Russia presents an intellectual and political puzzle,” she writes. “It is a puzzle even for Russians who are still confused about Russia’s trajectory.” She is especially critical of “pragmatists” and “their dogmas on ‘common interests,’ the need to respond to Russia’s ‘grievances’ and the Kremlin’s demands for ‘equality’.” The Western pragmatists, she continues, “bear at least partial responsibility for the Kremlin’s reckless actions, which are based on the belief that the West would be ready to accommodate (if threatened) – just as the Western pragmatists promised!” 7 Shevtsova offers an important caution to those predicting the imminent demise of the Putin regime. “[A]nyone holding out hopes that the System will go down in flames should prepare themselves for disappointment,” she writes. “Public opinion creates the impression of the cognitive dissonance. On the one hand, people’s trust in Putin is failing.
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