TECHNICAL NOTE

PEACE CONFLICT AND FOOD SECURITY What do we know about the linkages? TECHNICAL NOTE

KEY FINDINGS

ON WHETHER FOOD INSECURITY ON CONFLICT TRIGGERS CONFLICT AND FOOD Food insecurity can also be > a source of conflict, but not SECURITY necessarily so. Where it is, it is COLOMBIA never the one single factor behind Most conflicts mainly the strife. Farmers of Balboa, a village affect rural areas and their some 140 km from Popayan, > the capital of Cauca Province. populations. This is particularly Causal effects of the food ©FAO/Mattioli true for civil conflicts, nowadays > security-conflict nexus the most common form of armed include dispossession of assets conflict. (including land and livestock) and threats to food security (including Conflict has strong and sudden food price increases), but > unambiguous adverse effects in conjunction with other forms of on food security and nutrition. It is grievance and discontent. FAO data show that that, on the major driver of food insecurity average, the proportion of people and malnutrition, both acute and who are undernourished is almost chronic. ON PEACE DIVIDENDS three times as high in countries AND FOOD SECURITY in protracted crisis than in other Conflict has lasting impacts developing countries (Figure > on human development as a Building resilience through 1). While protracted crises are result of increased malnutrition, > peacebuilding efforts is critical typically caused by multiple which tends to affect children the for food security and nutrition. factors, conflict is nearly always most and leave lifelong physical one of them. Not all countries and/or mental handicaps. Little is known about how, in protracted crisis present very > and to what extent, improved high levels of undernourishment Causal effects of conflict-food food security could prevent conflict, because, in some of these > security nexus vary across and build and sustain peace. Yet, countries, crises are localized to conflict zones, but common features depending on context-specific certain areas or regions. In 2013, are disruption of food production conditions, food aid and social there were approximately 167 and food systems, plundering of protection, as well as helping million undernourished people crops and livestock, loss of assets communities complete harvests, in countries in protracted crisis – and incomes, hence directly and tend to contribute significantly to roughly 21 percent of the world’s indirectly affecting food access. peacebuilding. undernourished people.

2 PROPORTION OF UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE ABOUT THREE TIMES HIGHER IN COUNTRIES IN PROTRACTED CRISIS (PERCENTAGE UNDERNOURISHED IN 2012-14)

40

35

30 e d i s h 25 ernour d 20

15

P ercentage un 10

5

0 Countries in China and India Other developing

protracted crisis countries Source: FAO.

Several aspects of the relationship This relationship is nuanced and This note provides a succinct between food, hunger, peace and needs to be given more careful summary of the main conflict have been well explored consideration. Third, there are literature and some evidence and documented. First, conflict indications that food security on the hunger-conflict-peace tends to have a strong adverse and improved rural livelihoods relationship. What is clear from impact on hunger and food security, may contribute to the mitigation the literature is that a deeper and this finding is uncontested. and prevention of conflicts and exploration of the relationships Second, there is evidence that to securing sustainable peace. between conflict, food security high food prices and lack of However, the nature and strength and peace would provide a access to food have contributed to of this relationship has been stronger basis for designing political instability and civil strife. underexplored. effective interventions.

3 TECHNICAL NOTE THE IMPACT OF CONFLICT ON FOOD SECURITY

Conflict entails enormous and Countries with the highest Although the causal effects multifaceted costs, including levels of undernourishment may differ across conflict zones, direct human suffering and tend to be those engaged commonly observed features catastrophic socioeconomic in violent conflict, or that are that conflicts disrupt food disruptions, which can have recently emerged from production through physical significantly impede economic it. High risk of conflicts is a destruction and plundering of and social progress. Most key characteristic of fragile crops and livestock, harvests and conflicts mainly affect rural states and the probability of food reserves; they prevent and areas and their populations, a high burden of hunger rises discourage farming; they disrupt with heavy impacts on exponentially with the degree food transportation systems; agricultural production of fragility (Figure 2). The they destroy farm assets and and rural livelihoods. This Central African Republic and capital; they conscript or entice is particularly true for civil Chad are among the worst- young men to fight, taking conflicts, which in recent years scoring countries and both have them away from their work at have become the most common experienced violent conflict and the farm; and they suppress form of armed conflict.1 political instability in recent income earning livelihoods and years. In contrast, in Angola, occupations. Conflict also makes Conflict can reduce the Ethiopia and Rwanda, hunger it difficult for governments and amount of food available, levels have fallen substantially humanitarian actors to reach disrupt people’s access to food, since their large scale civil wars those in need. limit families’ access to food of the 1990s and 2000s ended. preparation facilities and health Ethiopia was still considered in care, and increase uncertainty protracted crisis in 2010, but yet about satisfying future needs for managed to reach the MDG 1c food and nutrition (Simmons, target of halving the proportion 2013). Poverty rates are 20 of undernourished population, 1 Center for Systemic Peace. 2012. http://www.systemicpeace.org/. percentage points higher in thanks to sustained political Civil conflicts are those between a state and an countries affected by repeated commitment and efforts to opposition group that aims to take power over the cycles of violence over the target interventions to improve central government, or in a region, or to change government policies. last three decades. Every food production and nutrition 2 The Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence year of violence in a country (FAO, IFAD, and WFP, 2015). and Development. 2011. Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011: lethal encounters. GDAVD: is associated with lagging This commitment probably Geneva. (http://www.genevadeclaration.org/ poverty reduction of nearly one became possible as the conflict measurability/global-burden-of-armed-violence/ global-burden-of-armed-violence-2011.html). percentage point (World Bank, subsided, and helped to sustain 3 http://www.fao.org/somalia/news/de- 2011). more peaceful conditions. tail-events/en/c/247642/.

4 THE BURDEN OF HUNGER RAPIDLY RISES WITH THE DEGREE OF FRAGILITY (ALL COUNTRIES, 2006-2014

Source: FAO (for PoU data) and Fund for Peace (for fragile states index). Note: The fragile states index is based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability: social (4),

Prevalence of people undernourished people of Prevalence economic (2), and political (6). The higher the index the greater the risk of violence and conflict. The threshold between situations of “stability” and “fragility” is 70, right at the point in the graph where the probability of high prevalence of undernourishment rises exponentially. Each point in the graph refers to country estimates for each year during 2006-2014.

Fragile States Index

The lasting effect of Mortality caused by conflict 100,000 people or more (de Waal, through food insecurity and 2015). It is posited that this may be conflicts is manifested famine can far exceed deaths due to the interrelated effects of through its impact on caused directly by violence. factors such as the end of the Cold nutrition, especially Between 2004 and 2009 War, the adoption of international approximately 55,000 people a human rights norms and the rise undernutrition during year lost their lives as a direct of globalisation. This is not to infer early childhood with result of conflict or terrorism.2 that famines are over – but today’s many of those affected In contrast, as a result of famine are mostly caused by violent conflict, caused by drought and conflict, exacerbated by natural disasters and suffering from lifelong more than 250,000 died in are more often local (Keen, 2008). physical and/or mental Somalia alone between 2010 handicaps. and 2012.3 Nonetheless, acute and chronic hunger remains a global problem, An ‘unheralded achievement’ of and severe hunger can exist even the past 50 years has been the end without conflict. A number of of the age of ‘calamitous famines’ – South Asian and African countries those that kill more than one million face serious or alarming levels people – and a significant reduction of hunger despite their relatively in ‘great famines’ – those that kill stable and peaceful recent history.

5 TECHNICAL NOTE CAN FOOD INSECURITY LEAD TO CONFLICT?

As clearly indicated in the literature, and political instability after the be a catalyst for civil and political violent conflict is the major driver first significant global rise in food unrest. In other words, they may of food insecurity and malnutrition, prices in 2008, which coincided become the channel through which both acute and chronic. However, with civil unrest in over 40 other, wider grievances such as the causes of armed conflict countries (Brinkman and Hendrix, poverty, unemployment (particularly have been the subject of lengthy 2011). The Arab Spring, which of youth), low incomes, unpaid and controversial debate. The toppled governments in Tunisia, salaries, political marginalisation conclusion of a synthesis of this Egypt and Libya, had a consistent and access to basic services are literature (World Bank, 2011) is motivating factor - the price of expressed (Brinkman and Hendrix, that there is no simple causal food. The protests in Tunisia, 2011). The corollary is that food price explanation for conflict. Conflict which signalled the start of the stabilization measures and safety comes in many forms, and its Arab Spring domino effect, were nets are critical instruments for causes are complex, nonlinear, and initially demonstrations against preventing violent conflict. mediated by a host of factors. high bread prices. While public outrage over high food prices was People resort to violence due to a not the only cause, it is generally In fragile states, broad spectrum of threats to their perceived as an important one. a vicious cycle human security. This may include threats to their food security or - of A recent study which explored of instability can equal importance - because they whether food prices cause social exist whereby food have been dispossessed. Other unrest (Bellemare, 2015) concluded insecurity both results factors include loss of assets and that the answer is a qualified ‘yes’. other threats to their livelihoods, It argued that although rising food from and contributes together with economic and/ prices appear to cause food riots, to repeated rounds of or political marginalisation. The food price volatility is negatively armed conflict. precise contribution of hunger and associated with or unrelated to food insecurity to conflict is difficult social unrest. to assess (GHI, 2015). Some of When national governance fails, as the causes, such as dispossession While food insecurity may trigger, in the case of Somalia, conflict can and lack of access to resources, are fuel or sustain conflicts, the lead to large-scale food insecurity directly associated with reduced literature stresses that this is not the or even famine. But the relationship access to food. only cause. Sudden and unexpected can also go the other way. Over 60 food price rises, or the reduction percent of Somalia’s population are Greater attention has been given or removal of subsidies on basic pastoralists and semi-pastoralists to the links between food security foodstuffs and cooking fuel can who earn a living from livestock

6 SYRIA

A pistachio vendor. ©FAO/Messori Finally, there is growing evidence of a causal relationship between extreme weather events and the incidence of civil conflicts. This has proved to be valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in Somalia, and one study estimated that one standard deviation increase in the length and intensity of drought increases the likelihood of conflict by 62 percent (Maystadt and Ecker, 2014). The same study also found that drought affects conflict by causing changes in livestock prices, and suggests that drought- caused livestock price shocks are a main driver of local conflict. This has important implications for policies and investments in drought mitigation and resilience building for both climate change adaptation and conflict prevention.

However, Brinkman and Hendrix (2011) highlight contradictory evidence regarding causality. In some cases, weather conditions that reduce agricultural productivity - drought, floods and warmer husbandry. More frequent and conflicts for pastoralists and semi- temperatures - seem to lead to food intense droughts often lead to pastoralists by fostering growth insecurity and contribute to civil collapses in livestock prices, and in the livestock sector, providing conflict. Young men find fighting NIGER thus contribute to the conditions alternative income earning a more attractive option than Women return to their homes with that can cause food insecurity. A opportunities, and establishing farm work ifflour the and latter beans produces supplied by FAO. collapse in livestock prices reduces social safety nets (Maystadt and low returns. Or poor households©FAO/Sanogo the incentives for being involved Ecker, 2014). may voice their grievances against in “normal” animal husbandry inadequate government responses activities. Therefore, they also Another possible catalyst of wider to their poverty and hunger. In reduce the opportunity cost of inter-group conflict is competition other cases, good agricultural engaging in violent conflicts which to control natural resources such weather conditions and high levels are expected to bring higher income as land and water, required for of agricultural productivity provide – and this makes the risks worth food production. However, the both incentives and opportunities taking (IFPRI, 2014). In this way, causal relationship between natural to fuel, and engage in, conflict food insecurity can result in more resources, weak governance, conflict incited by other grievances people entering a conflict and the and poor development remains (Simmons, 2013). In such contexts, vicious cycle continues. In order unclear, and point to the need for improved agricultural conditions to reduce the risk of civil conflict a deeper analysis of the particular increase the availability of valuable in this context, it is necessary to elements and circumstances in assets worth plundering (grains, increase the costs of participating in which they are relevant. land, livestock, etc.).

7 TECHNICAL NOTE FOOD SECURITY AND PEACE DIVIDENDS

It has been argued that, when may lead individuals to become implemented appropriately, well- fighters or support armed groups. timed interventions aimed at Second, greater food price improving food security build stability and the recovery of local resilience to conflict because they agricultural and food markets help countries and peoples to cope could help vulnerable individuals with and recover from conflict; and households to overcome the they also contribute to preventing adverse legacies of armed conflict conflicts, while supporting by encouraging affected people economic development more to move beyond subsistence broadly (IFPRI, 2014). Conversely, agriculture and rejoin exchange building resilience through markets. They may also reduce the peacebuilding efforts has been seen appeal of illegal activities. These to play a critical role in supporting effects depend largely on how food security outcomes in areas the local institutional formation with recurrent crises (Kurtz and during wartime affected (either a social shock, particularly in McMahon, 2015). negatively or positively) the lives fragile settings, it is important to and livelihoods of populations rapidly re-engage small-holder However, there is limited living in these areas. More work farmers - both men and women - knowledge about the role of is required to better understand in productive activities. food security in preventing or these pathways, and acquire more mitigating conflicts and, potentially, systematic evidence. Food assistance can offer valuable in supporting peacebuilding peace dividends, as well as processes. Based on a number of Nonetheless, agriculture is the contributing to restoring trust in disperse findings in the literature, dominant form of livelihood for governments and rebuilding social some potential mechanisms the majority of households in capital (Brinkman and Hendrix, whereby food security may affect conflict-affected countries, and 2011). Findings from a review conflict (or peace) outcomes are efforts to revive the agricultural of case studies and literature posited. First, interventions to sector, foster economic growth and (Frankenberger, 2012) indicate that improve food security may help increase food security may have food-based livelihood assistance weaken some - but not all – of positive effects on the sustainability has the potential to directly address the welfare-related motives that of peace. In the aftermath of some of the underlying causes of

8 KENYA

A woman collecting drinking water from a polluted watering hole.. ©FAO/Vitale

conflict in affected communities. to mitigate the risk of conflicts new life to shattered homes and It can do so by creating productive recurring, and the related impacts communities, and motivates infrastructure, providing social on food security. As noted above, people to come together when protection, and improving the preventative interventions that conflict has destroyed social technical capacity of governments can break the link between networks. Limited research has and other local counterparts. food insecurity and conflict demonstrated that it is possible However, there are obviously include mechanisms that shield to evaluate psycho-social substantial challenges to providing consumers and producers from impacts using, for example, a assistance strategically and food price shocks, including food Sense of Coherence scale. One effectively in conflict and post- price stabilization measures and application of this approach to conflict settings. safety nets. a FAO programme in the North Caucasus showed the multiple Broadly speaking, there are a A different perspective, drawing contributions of different types number of food security related on social anthropological of agriculture programmes to the interventions and measures that approaches, is that in addition to recovery process, including for governments and international restarting the economic engine to social regeneration (Akhilgova, J., stakeholders can put in place drive recovery, agriculture brings et al. 2013).

9 TECHNICAL NOTE ROLE OF WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE AND PEACEBUILDING

The role and position of women own or control land, buy inputs, critical for survival during conflict, is relevant to how conflicts obtain credits, or receive an as well as the drivers in post- affect food security and how education (see, for example, FAO, conflict recovery (UN Women, food security can support 2011; Lastarria-Cornheil, 2005). 2012). Targeting women as the first peacebuilding. In most rural and During civil strife and conflict, beneficiaries of food aid and social agricultural settings, women these constraints tend to be even protection, as well as helping them are mainly responsible for food stronger because more men who and their communities complete security and nutrition within the normally take responsibilities are harvests, can therefore contribute household. In many developing absent as they engage in conflict significantly to improving countries, they also supply the or flee in search for alternative household resilience and to bulk of agricultural labour, livelihoods. peacebuilding. It is important although they usually finding to promote women’s economic it harder than men to earn a Experience and evidence show that empowerment, their right to living as farmers or agricultural women are more likely to spend access and use resources as well workers because they often do not their incomes on food, health care as their participation in decision- have the same rights as men to and education. Hence, they are making on natural resource

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

An analysis of the complex development and greater equity With improved data and data relationship between ‘peace and within and between countries analyses on agricultural and stability’ and the achievement of while strengthening good non-agricultural incomes, conflict development goals (Hong, 2015) governance can help address the models might better predict shows that peace and stability are root causes of conflict (GHI, 2015). how food insecurity related to both the enablers for - and outcome Policies and strategies that reduce crop failure or persistent low of - development. development stresses and mitigate productivity could affect the the risks of conflict simultaneously incentives of rural households Reducing armed conflict and can be effective in restoring to be involved in conflicts. extreme poverty - and addressing peace and stability and create a Micro-level analyses and case their consequences - are key to virtuous cycle between peace and studies will be crucial to better ending hunger. Fostering economic sustainable development. understand these relationships.

10 BIBLIOGRAPHY

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