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12 Human Security Coordinating Lead Authors: W. Neil Adger (UK), Juan M. Pulhin (Philippines) Lead Authors: Jon Barnett (Australia), Geoffrey D. Dabelko (USA), Grete K. Hovelsrud (Norway), Marc Levy (USA), Úrsula Oswald Spring (Mexico), Coleen H. Vogel (South Africa) Contributing Authors: Helen Adams (UK), Jennifer Hodbod (UK), Stuart Kent (Australia), Marcela Tarazona (Colombia) Review Editors: Paulina Aldunce (Chile), Robin Leichenko (USA) Volunteer Chapter Scientist: Marcela Tarazona (Colombia) This chapter should be cited as: Adger , W.N., J.M. Pulhin, J. Barnett, G.D. Dabelko, G.K. Hovelsrud, M. Levy, Ú. Oswald Spring, and C.H. Vogel, 2014: Human security. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 755-791. 755 Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 758 12.1. Definition and Scope of Human Security ................................................................................................................ 759 Box 12-1. Relationship between Human Rights and Human Security in the Context of Climate Change ................................... 759 Box 12-2. The Nature of Evidence about Climate Change and Human Security ......................................................................... 760 12.2. Economic and Livelihood Dimensions of Human Security at Risk from Climate Change ....................................... 761 12.2.1. Climate Change Impacts on Material Aspects of Livelihood Security ................................................................................................ 761 12.2.2. Adaptation Actions and Livelihood Dimensions of Human Security .................................................................................................. 762 12.3. Cultural Dimensions of Human Security ................................................................................................................. 762 12.3.1. How Culture Interacts with Climate Impacts and Adaptation ........................................................................................................... 762 Box. 12-3. Food Prices, Food Insecurity, and Links to Climate .................................................................................................... 763 12.3.2. Indigenous Peoples ........................................................................................................................................................................... 765 12.3.3. Local and Traditional Forms of Knowledge ....................................................................................................................................... 765 12.4. Migration and Mobility Dimensions of Human Security ......................................................................................... 766 12.4.1. Impacts of Climate Change on Displacement, Migration, and Mobility ............................................................................................ 766 12.4.1.1. Nature of Evidence on Climate Change and Migration ..................................................................................................... 766 12.4.1.2. Potential Pathways from Climate Change to Migration ..................................................................................................... 767 12.4.1.3. Migration Trends and Long-Term Climate Change ............................................................................................................. 768 12.4.2. Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts .................................................................................................................. 770 Box 12-4. Evidence on the Existence of Environmental Migrants and International Policy for Their Protection ....................... 771 12.5. Climate Change and Armed Conflict ....................................................................................................................... 771 12.5.1. Climate Change as a Cause of Conflict ............................................................................................................................................. 771 12 Box 12-5. Climate and the Multiple Causes of Conflict in Darfur ............................................................................................... 773 12.5.2. Conflict and Insecurity Associated with Climate Policy Responses ................................................................................................... 773 12.5.3. Violent Conflict and Vulnerability to Climate Change ....................................................................................................................... 774 12.5.4. Peace-Building Activities in Promoting Adaptation ........................................................................................................................... 775 12.6. State Integrity and Geopolitical Rivalry ................................................................................................................. 775 12.6.1. Critical Infrastructure and State Capacity ......................................................................................................................................... 775 12.6.2. Geopolitical Issues ............................................................................................................................................................................ 775 Box 12-6. Evidence on Security and Geopolitical Dimensions of Climate Change Impacts in the Arctic ................................... 776 12.7. Synthesis .................................................................................................................................................................. 777 References .......................................................................................................................................................................... 779 756 Human Security Chapter 12 Frequently Asked Questions 12.1: What are the principal threats to human security from climate change? ......................................................................................... 762 12.2: Can lay knowledge of environmental risks help adaptation to climate change? .............................................................................. 766 12.3: How many people could be displaced as a result of climate change? .............................................................................................. 768 12.4: What role does migration play in adaptation to climate change, particularly in vulnerable regions? ............................................... 770 12.5: Will climate change cause war between countries? ......................................................................................................................... 772 12 757 Chapter 12 Human Security Executive Summary Human security will be progressively threatened as the climate changes ( robust evidence , high agreement ). Human insecurity almost never has single causes, but instead emerges from the interaction of multiple factors. {12.1.2, 12.2} Climate change is an important factor threatening human security through (1) undermining livelihoods {12.2}; (2) compromising culture and identity {12.3}; (3) increasing migration that people would rather have avoided {12.4}; and (4) challenging the ability of states to provide the conditions necessary for human security. {12.6} Climate change will compromise the cultural values that are important for community and individual well-being ( medium evidence , high agreement ). The effect of climate change on culture will vary across societies and over time, depending on cultural resilience and the mechanisms for maintaining and transferring knowledge. Changing weather and climatic conditions threaten cultural practices embedded in livelihoods and expressed in narratives, world views, identity, community cohesion, and sense of place. Loss of land and displacement, for example on small islands and coastal communities, has well documented negative cultural and well-being impacts. {12.3.1, 12.3.3, 12.4.2} Indigenous, local, and traditional forms of knowledge are a major resource for adapting to climate change ( robust evidence , high agreement ). Natural resource dependent communities, including indigenous peoples, have a long history of adapting to highly variable and changing social and ecological conditions. But the salience of indigenous, local, and traditional knowledge will be challenged by climate change impacts. Such forms of knowledge are often neglected in policy and research, and their mutual recognition and integration with scientific knowledge will increase the effectiveness of adaptation. {12.3.3-4} Climate change will have significant impacts on forms of migration that compromise human security ( medium evidence , high agreement ). Some migration flows are sensitive to changes in resource availability and ecosystem services. Major extreme weather events have in the
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