The Future of Security in Iraq's Nineveh Plain

Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 06/03/2020 11:02:13 PM Nineveh Plain Defense Fund 'ZSEft? 12 hrs • Q

"The policy of minority self-security within a legal, legitimate structure of authority that is transparent and accountable, successfully exemplified by the NPU, is the only policy proven to facilitate Christian Assyrian return to the Nineveh Plain in significant proportions. Furthermore, it acts as a stabilizing actor in the region, resisting the presence of hostile actors, and is uniquely motivated to defend local populations. The expansion and empowerment of the NPU could also enable the Government of Iraq to regain control of Ninewa Governorate and elevate the Nineveh Plain above the Baghdad-Erbil dispute in order to prioritize the needs of local communities. Re-establishing federal control of these areas is necessary to rebuild local governing institutions, di- minish local tensions, and reduce territorial contestations." Thank you to the Assyrian Policy Institute for this valuable and timely report documenting the success of the Nineveh Plain Protection Units - NPU : <5*10 oIj^$ in providing local security in the Nineveh Plain. Areas patrolled by the NPU have the highest rates of return of displaced Assyrians. The NPU demonstrates that minority self-security is necessary to achieve long-term Assyrian survival and prosperity in their homeland.

l ASSYRIANPOLICY.ORG Contested Control: The Future of Security in Iraq's Nineveh Plain Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 06/03/2020 11:02:13 PM Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 06/03/2020 11:02:13 PM Nineveh Plain Defense Fund 'ZSEft? 12 hrs • Q

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"NPU-administered areas have seen the highest rates of return among Christian Assyrians in the Nineveh Plain. Despite the limitations of the NPU, its soldiers' connections to the local community provide reassurance and it has garnered significant popular support. For many Assyrians, the events of 2014 demonstrate that the only way for the community to feel secure is for Assyrians to be able to protect themselves."

Graph below from the new report from the Assyrian Policy Institute on security in the Nineveh Plain and the Nineveh Plain Protection Units -

NPU : J4-1 cjIjoj.

At top, rate of return of displaced Assyrians by village.

At bottom, populations by village before and after ISIS.

NPU patrolled areas demonstrate the highest rates of return of areas actually overrun by ISIS. Alqosh has a high rate or return, but as noted in text below, ISIS never assumed territorial control of Alqosh. In contrast, Bakhdida was overcome by ISIS. But now, with the presence of the NPU, Bakhdida's rate of return approaches that of Alqosh that was never actually overrun. Karamlesh, another NPU patrolled town, also has realized meaningful return. None of the other areas of the Nineveh Plain overcome by ISIS currently not patrolled primarily by the NPU have achieved the same levels of return as that seen in Bakhdida and Karamlesh where the NPU does primarily maintain security.

Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 06/03/2020 11:02:14 PM Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 06/03/2020 11:02:14 PM

Alqosh1 i§ Bakhdida (Qaraqosh) -F)

Baqopa

Bartella2

Bashiqa3

Batnaya4

Karamlesh Jr

Tel Keppe (Tel Kayf)

Tesqopa (Tel Eskof)

All o 0.25 0.5 0.75

Alqosh1 Iraqi Army Peshmerga Bakhdida (Qaraqosh) (wj Asayish Baqopa Nineveh Plain Protection Units (NPU) Bartella2 'X PMU Brigade 50 (Babylon Brigades) Bashiqa3 (fS3) PMU Brigade 30 Batnaya4 F Karamlesh Pre-ISIS Population Tel Keppe (Tel Kayf) Current Population (2020) Tesqopa (Tel Eskof)

All

OK 10K 20K 30K 40K 50K 60K 70K 80K 90K 100K

‘The ISIS never assumed territorial control of Alqosh despite the fact that it was abandoned by the Peshmerga on August 6, 2014. Therefore, it was left fully intact. The Peshmerga reasserted its authority in Alqosh on August 9, 2014. However, in some cases returns were protracted due to lack of necessary confidence in KRG-affiliated security forces. Twenty-five percent of Alqosh’s pre-ISIS population remains externally-displaced. following the liberation of the Nineveh Plain, the NPU was the dominant force in Bartella, however, its authori ty has become increasingly constrained as Brigade 30 has expanded in size and influence with the support, financial and otherwise, of the Badr Organization and nonlocal PMF forces. 3From late October 2016 to October 2017, security in Bashiqa was controlled by Peshmerga forces until their withdrawal from the area when Iraqi forces led a campaign to restore federal authority in the region, enabling Brigade 50 to develop a temporary presence in Bashiqa. Most returnees of Assyrian background returned to Basqhia between August and October 2017. Brigade 50’s presence hindered additional returns. Bashiqa is now controlled by Iraqi Army forces, but many displaced persons continue to lack the necessary confidence in current security arrangements. "" ” ’ tg its liberation from ISIS, Brigade 50 controlled Batnaya until Iraqi Army forces replaced them in the early Screenshot |2019.

Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 06/03/2020 11:02:14 PM