PRISMVOL. 6, NO. 4 2017 The Struggle for Security in Africa A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS ABOUT PRISM PRISM, a quarterly journal published by the Center for Complex Operations (CCO) at the VOL.6, NO. 4 2017 National Defense University, aims to illuminate and provoke debate on whole-of-government efforts to conduct reconstruction, stabilization, counterinsurgency, and irregular warfare EDITOR operations. Since its inaugural issue in 2010, PRISM’s readership has expanded to include more Mr. Michael Miklaucic than 10,000 officials, servicemen and women, and practitioners from across the diplomatic, defense and development communities in more than 80 countries. DEPUTY EDITOR Ms. Patricia Clough COMMUNICATIONS PRISM encourages authors to aggressively seek out and identify problems that should be addressed irrespective of prevailing U.S. Government policy or current military doctrine. 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The Struggle for Security in Africa INTERVIEW 2 An Interview with Princeton Lyman and Johnnie Carson FEATURES 14 African Security Futures: Threats, Partnerships, and International Engagement for the New U.S. Administration By Martin Kindl 32 Continuity and Change in War and Conflict in Africa By Paul D. Williams 46 Strategic Dilemmas: Rewiring Africa for a Teeming, Urban Future PRISM 6, No. 4 / cco.ndu.edu By Greg Mills, Jeffrey Herbst, and Dickie Davis 64 The Security Governance Initiative By Julie E. Chalfin and Linda Thomas-Greenfield 78 Brothers Came Back with Weapons: The Effects of Arms Proliferation from Libya By Nicholas Marsh 98 The Armies of the Great Lakes Countries By Gérard Prunier 112 Islam in from the Cold: A Muslim Brother’s Reflections on the Past, Present, and Future of the Islamic Movement in the Sudan By Marie Besançon BOOK REVIEWS 136 This Present Darkness: A History of Nigerian Organized Crime Reviewed by Raymond Gilpin 138 Security in Africa: A Critical Approach to Western Indicators of Threat Reviewed by Hilary Matfess 141 The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World Reviewed by Lawrence Garber LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 147 A Critique of “Special Operations Doctrine: is it Needed?” in PRISM 6, No. 3 By Jerome M. Lynes 148 A Reply to Jerome Lynes’ Critique By Charles T. Cleveland, James B. Linder, and Ronald Dempsey AUTHOR A female Burundian medical officer serving with the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in 2013 speaks with Somali women at a free medical clinic in Mogadishu, where medical care was a lifeline for thousands of civilians who were caught up and injured during fighting with al-Shabaab. (Stuart Price/AMISOM posted by Albany Associates) 2 | FEATURES PRISM 6, NO. 3 An Interview with Ambassador Princeton N. Lyman and Ambassador Johnnie Carson What strategic interests does the United States have in Africa? Lyman: In Africa you have a whole set of complex security and related issues. Not only the expansion of terrorism from East Africa across the Sahel and the dangers of health pandemics which pose threats to the international community, but if you combine those with the demo- graphics and problems of poverty, development, and climate change, these will cause a tremen- dous migration push toward Europe and elsewhere. All of which impacts on the United States. That combination of things going on in Africa has a very direct and important, strategic impor- tance for the United States. Carson: The United States is part of a global community and Africa is an increasingly important member. Stability, economic growth, improved health, and greater trade and com- merce in Africa contribute to global stability and thus to U.S. stability. The absence of peace is conflict; and the absence of development is poverty; the absence of good economic growth can also generate inequality, poverty, and social upheaval. We have to recognize we are better off as a country and as a global community when Africa is better off. The problems in Africa do not exist in isolation from the United States. Conflict in Africa generally comes at a high cost to our country. The State Department, USAID, and the White House are often required to engage politically. It also costs us financially at the UN because we [the United States] have to pay the largest share of the budget for UN peacekeepers, humanitar- ian support and refugee assistance, and for implementing many of the organization’s political and diplomatic resolutions. This interview was conducted by Mr. Michael Miklaucic on March 6, 2017. PRISM 6, NO. 4 INTERVIEW | 3 What are the major impediments to peace, did not correspond to any of the ethnic or economic growth, and development in Africa? tribal relationships in the continent. You had systems that moved basically from a chief- Lyman: One of them is the difficulty taincy model with all of the patrimonial related to creating large enough economic linkages that entails, to a national model markets, sub-regional, and then beyond under the rule of state law. Some of the sub-regional markets in Africa so that you have inherited models were essential for holding economies of scale and efficiencies of produc- the countries together when they first became tion. Better and more stable governance are independent, but many countries never needed; and investment is needed. You also evolved into more effective and accountable need a transformation in Africa from being systems of governance. In some cases they merely suppliers of natural commodities, and did; there are countries like Botswana, Kenya, natural resources—that transformation has Ghana, and Senegal that have evolved not taken place in very many African coun- tremendously in terms of developing demo- tries. And on top of that, there is a tremendous cratic norms, etc. But, you have a lot of other growth in population, and the ability of countries in which this remains a problem, Africans to manage that is still limited. and issues of identity, rivalry, and lack of Carson: I would agree that probably the modern governing institutions continue to greatest impediment is the absence of good constrain development. leadership, the absence of good governance, and the absence of the rule of law. There is in Africa is economically one of the most fact a correlation between good governance dynamic regions of the world and it is also one and stability. Countries that are governed well of the regions experiencing the most dramatic are generally more stable and peaceful. Those urbanization. What impact will urbanization areas of Africa where we see the greatest have on stability and economic development? instability are those areas where we see enormous deficits in the quality of leadership; Lyman: There are two theories: Some where we in fact see inadequate governance, people think urbanization is a very powerful poor rule of law, and a disrespect for basic force for development; particularly for freedoms and civil liberties. Where we see the industrialization and economic moderniza- greatest attempts to strengthen good gover- tion, but also for revamping the agricultural nance, rule of law, and respect for democratic sector into a more modern economic culture values, we see less persuasive instability. and away from subsistence farming. There is a lot of historical evidence that this is the case. What are the origins of that deficit in But if you don’t have some of the basic governance and absence of good leadership in political and economic infrastructure and Africa? What are the causes of that deficit? leadership, urbanization can be a source of great instability and greater poverty.