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When and How Does Inequality Cause Conflict? Group Dynamics, Perceptions and Natural Resources

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The London School of Economics and Political Science When and how does inequality cause conflict? Group dynamics, perceptions and natural resources Elise Must A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, September 2016 1 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 63,161 words. Statement of conjoint work I confirm that Chapter 4 was jointly co-authored with Siri Aas Rustad at the Peace Research Institute of Oslo and I contributed 85% of this work. I planned and conducted the survey and the interviews, and wrote the article. Siri Aas Rustad programmed the survey questionnaire into the Open Data Kit (ODK) survey software, did the regression analyses and wrote parts of the result section. 2 Abstract Recent advances in conflict studies have led to relatively robust conclusions that inequality fuels conflict when it overlaps with salient group identities. Central to quantitative studies supporting this relationship is a stipulated causal chain where objective group – or horizontal – inequalities are translated into grievances, which in turn form a mobilization resource. All these studies are however limited by their use of objective measures of inequality, which leaves them unable to directly test the assumed grievance mechanism. In four papers I argue that objective asymmetries are not enough to trigger conflict. For people to take action on horizontal inequalities, they will have to be aware of them and consider them unjust. In the first paper, Perceptions, Horizontal Inequalities and Civil Conflict, I use data from the World Values Survey to show that perceived rather than objective economic inequality between sub-national regional groups is associated with increased risk of civil war. In the second paper, Injustice is in the eye of the beholder: Perceived Horizontal Inequalities and Communal Conflict in Africa, I analyse 20 countries covered by the Afrobarometer Surveys. I conclude that combined objective and perceived economic ethnic inequality, political ethnic inequality, and particularly perceived political ethnic inequality, increase the risk of between-group conflict. In the third paper, Expectations, Grievances and Civil Unrest in Emerging Petrostates. Empirical Evidence from Tanzania, I present evidence suggesting that those who feel that their region has been treated unfairly by the government are most prone to support and participate in civil unrest. I base my conclusions primarily on survey data collected in 2015. In a final article, From Silence to Storm. Investigating Mechanisms Linking Structural Inequality and Natural Resources to Mobilization in Southern Tanzania, I rely on 35 semi-structured interviews to argue that natural gas mismanagement triggered group grievances, which in turn fuelled civil unrest. 3 Acknowledgements First and foremost I wish to thank all the scholars, lecturers and practitioners that made my field work in Tanzania so rewarding – and at all possible. Successfully completing a survey in a logistically and politically challenging environment with limited time and budgets would never have been possible without the competence and energy of Peter Kanyingy N’dungu. I am forever grateful. I thank Daniel Ngugi for always staying calm and steady and for never losing track of important details in heated situations, and Justin Lusasi for his people skills and political flair. Bryson Mshana generously shared his wealth of knowledge on the political situation in Mtwara. His insights proved invaluable both in planning and conducting the field work and in writing my articles. Not least, finding ways of expressing my questions in ways understandable to the local men and women of Mtwara and Lindi – without losing my original intentions – would have been close to impossible without the rock solid support of my research assistant Imelda Mville. In general, I thank the administration at Stella Maris University College (STEMMUCO) for supporting my research, and in particular Rev. Dr. Aidan Msafiri for sharing his knowledge and introducing me to Imelda, Daniel and Peter. Several people contributed with experience and knowledge on doing surveys and research in Tanzania. Special thanks go to Sally Ross and Zara Pita Merali of the Aga Khan Foundation, Angela Ambroz and Elvis Mushi at Twaweza, Robert Ahearne at the UCL, Sterling Roop at ILPI and Yulli Jeremiah at the University of Dar es Salaam. My 16 survey enumerators did a tremendous job – thank you all. Finally, 35 informants and 804 survey respondents generously shared their time and thoughts. I am indebted to all of them. I have had the privilege to have two very competent supervisors. Paul Mitchell has provided insightful comments and valuable support at critical moments. Thank you for giving reassurance and helping me to move on. My warmest thanks also to Gudrun Østby, the most dedicated co-supervisor I could ever wish for. You always knew how to push me further, and I have the deepest respect for how you took on and solved the supervisor task. Throughout my dissertation project I found much inspiration and support in the PRIO Research School on Peace and Conflict. Special thanks to Lynn Nygård for invaluable 4 dissertation writing advice. In general, being part of the PRIO research environment has been both professionally and socially rewarding. My thanks to PRIO Director Kristian Berg Harpviken for opening up for this opportunity. For the first paper I thank discussants, panellists and participants at the annual MPSA conference in Chicago, April 2013 for comments on an early draft. The second paper has benefited from numerous comments and suggestions from participants at the ILPI Africa Discussion Forum, academic staff and students at the LSE Comparative Politics Workshop in November 2014, PRIO researchers at a PRIO Brownbag in November 2014, participants at the Norwegian Political Science Conference in January 2015 and at the European Network of Conflict Researchers (ENCoRe) in April 2015. Håvard Strand generously shared his time to discuss methodological challenges – I am very grateful for the insights he provided. For the third paper I thank my co-author Siri Aas Rustad for fruitful discussions and Henrik Urdal and Halvard Buhaug for thoughtful comments. I furthermore thank participants at the ENCoRe conference in January 2016, and panellists and participants at the ISA annual convention in March 2016. Special thanks go to our discussant Vally Koubi. For the fourth and final paper I received particularly helpful suggestions from Trine Lunde, Sigrun Marie Moss and Tove Heggli Sagmo. I also thank participants at the PRIO Research School of Peace and Conflict Symposium in April 2016 and staff and students at LSE Comparative Politics Workshop in May 2016. The PRIO Conflict Trends Project and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs generously supported my field work in Tanzania. Finally, the by far most rewarding discussions and useful comments to my dissertation were provided by my two excellent examinators at the London School of Economics Viva Voce – Livia Schubiger and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. I came out from my examination with a renewed interest for my dissertation topic and a profound respect for the academic thinking and conduct they both represent. I am deeply grateful to both. I have been very lucky to enjoy the company and receive support from friends too numerous to give full recognition to individually. Still, my warmest thanks go to Trine 5 Lunde for always understanding what I mean, and for providing absolutely invaluable guidance on how to do and not do a PhD. Thanks to Salima Nurmohammed for life saving evenings with wine, and to Anne Cecile Haug for coming up with ever innovative ways of getting fresh air and exercise. My parents Margrethe and Helge deserve a lot of credit for always fully supporting me – no matter what I embarked on. And for cooking dinners and taking care of everything at times when I disappeared into dissertation issues. Most importantly – Christian – thank you for thinking it was a great idea of mine to quit my job to become a PhD student. And for never stopping supporting me, even if it meant staying home alone with 3 children while I was on repeated trips to Tanzania. This brings me to our lovely daughters who have the power to make life wonderful even when regression models do not go up. 6 Table of contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 13 1.1 Motivation and main aim .............................................................................................. 13 1.2 Literature review ........................................................................................................... 16 1.3 Gaps in current literature and contribution ..................................................................
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