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Envisioning Present and Future Land-Use Change Under Varying Ecological Regimes and Their Influence on Landscape Stability

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Envisioning Present and Future Land-Use Change Under Varying Ecological Regimes and Their Influence on Landscape Stability sustainability Commentary Envisioning Present and Future Land-Use Change under Varying Ecological Regimes and Their Influence on Landscape Stability Marcela Prokopová 1, Luca Salvati 1,2,*, Gianluca Egidi 3, OndˇrejCudlín 1, Renata Vˇceláková 1, Radek Plch 1 and Pavel Cudlín 1 1 Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Lipová 9, CZ-37005 Ceskˇ é Budˇejovice,Czech Republic 2 Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Viale S. Margherita 80, I-52100 Arezzo, Italy 3 Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via San Camillo de Lellis, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 30 July 2019; Accepted: 22 August 2019; Published: 27 August 2019 Abstract: Climate change plays an important role in shaping ecological stability of landscape systems. Increasing weather fluctuations such as droughts threaten the ecological stability of natural and anthropogenic landscapes. Uncertainty exists regarding the validity of traditional landscape assessment schemes under climate change. This commentary debates the main factors that threaten ecological stability, discussing basic approaches to interpret landscape functioning. To address this pivotal issue, the intimate linkage between ecological stability and landscape diversity is explored, considering different approaches to landscape stability assessment. The impact of land-use changes on landscape stability is finally discussed. Assessment methodologies and indicators are reviewed and grouped into homogeneous classes based on a specific nomenclature of stability aspects which include landscape composition, fragmentation and connectivity, thermodynamic and functional issues, biodiversity, soil degradation, and ecological disturbance. By considering land-use change as one of the most important factors underlying climate change, individual components of landscape stability are finally delineated and commented upon. In this regard, specific trajectories of land-use change (including agricultural intensification, land abandonment, and urbanization) are investigated for their effects on ecological stability. A better understanding of land-use impacts on landscape stability is crucial for a better knowledge of processes leading to land degradation. Keywords: disturbances; landscape structure; desertification; resilience; Europe 1. Introduction Stability is a concept that involves many aspects and principles from both ecological and socioeconomic perspectives [1–3]. Mechanisms, features, characteristics, and functions make it difficult to assess states or predict future reactions of ecosystems to some drivers of global change, such as land-use change [4–6]. Drivers of changes in biodiversity, ecosystem functions/services, and human well-being are shown in Figure1. Land-use change can be considered one of the most important drivers of landscape stability decline under global changes [7–9]. Specific models separately predicting climate change, land-use transformations, and population dynamics have been proposed in recent times [10–12]. However, models forecasting (landscape) ecological stability based on an integrated and prospective analysis of these three research domains have been relatively scarce and designed for specific local contexts [13–16]. In these regards, some key questions remain unclarified: (i) what are the Sustainability 2019, 11, 4654; doi:10.3390/su11174654 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2019, 11, 4654 2 of 24 implications of these trends (separate and joint) for ecological stability? And, more specifically, (ii) what are theSustainability possible 2019 thresholds, 9, x FOR PEER inland-use REVIEW transformations significantly affecting landscape stability?3 of 24 Figure 1. Drivers of changes in biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. Source: Figure 1. Drivers of changes in biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. Source: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Biodiversity Outlook 2, Montreal, 2006. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Global Biodiversity Outlook 2, Montreal, 2006. Since landscape stability has a very complex character and a multidisciplinary nature, ecological 2. Defining ‘Ecological Stability’ stability is intimately related to land-use transformations and it can be influenced by such changes at the same time‘Ecological [17–19 stability’]. This leads has been to multiple defined as ways the ofabil howity of to a perceivegiven ecosystem and quantify to return it, to depending the initial on of equilibrium state after disturbance [29]. Additionally, this notion has been taken as an intrinsic ability the variety of assessment techniques and particular problems it focuses on, e.g., depending on specific to maintain ecological functions despite disturbance [30]. Ecosystem stability emerges from three issuescomplementary of any given landscape attributes type[31]: resilience, [20–24]. Urbanization, adaptability, and crop transformability. intensification, While and land scholars abandonment have are examplestraditionally of processesconcentrated of on land-use resilience transformation and adaptability, withmore arecently—in strong impact a timeon of global landscape change— stability. It is mostit seems likely that that the concept each landscape of transformability type will is need becoming a diff equallyerent assessmentimportant inof landscape stability ecology depending on which[32,33]. issues that threaten it are the most relevant for that given type [25–28]. Based on this premise, a‘Resilience’ reflection onwas the defined concept as ofa measure ecological of (landscape)the ability to stability absorb change concept (e.g., is proposed disturbance) in this and paper, focusingeventually on assessment recover and methodologies reorganize [34] in so relation that vital to components global change of the processes system (plants that involveand animals) land-use transformations,will still retain climate the same variability, organizational and demographic structure, functions dynamics. (e.g., productivity), and interactions, feedbacks, and identity [35,36]. Resilience was later used to better understand general principles More specifically, the intimate linkage between ecological stability and landscape diversity is governing transformations of socio-ecological systems through cycles of change [37–39]. explored‘Adaptability’ with an aimis the to ability address of a thisgiven pivotal system issue,to adjust considering to changes, dieitherfferent internal approaches (plant succession to landscape stabilityand assessment, management and practices) the impact or external of land-use (rainfall, change temperature, on landscape climate stability change, is and discussed. exchange Assessment rates) methodologiesand thereby and to follow indicators a current are reviewedpredetermined and succe groupedssion trajectory into homogeneous within the current classes stability based on a specificdomain nomenclature [40] and maintain of stability a desirable aspects system’s that include state or landscapefunctions [41]. composition, ‘Transformability’ fragmentation refers to and connectivity,processes thermodynamic altering the nature and of a functionalgiven system issues, [31] and biodiversity, is defined as the soil intrinsic degradation, capacity andto create ecological a disturbance.new stable By landscape considering when land-use existing changeecological, as oneeconom of theic, or most social important structures factorsbecomeunderlying untenable, i.e., climate change,untried individual beginnings components from which of a landscapenew way of stabilityliving evolves are finally[38]. delineated and commented upon. Based on these premises, there has been a conceptual shift in the notion of ‘ecological stability’ In this regard, specific trajectories of land-use change (including agricultural intensification, land over the last century. The original view implying natural balance and equilibrium paradigms, saying abandonment,that biochemical and urbanization) cycles and areenergy investigated flows generate for their self-organizing effects on ecological feedbacks stability. contributing The paperto is composedecosystem of five stability main sections. [22,42,43], Section was 2later provides questioned theoretical and alternatives and operational emerged definitions admitting of ‘ecologicalloose- stability’. Section3 investigates properties of landscape stability. Section4 reviews conditions for landscape stability under land-use transformations. Section5 describes indicators and metrics of Sustainability 2019, 11, 4654 3 of 24 landscape stability. Finally, Section6 re-frames the latent relationship between land-use change and landscape stability with examples from a European country. A brief discussion section provides the necessary conclusion to this commentary. 2. Defining ‘Ecological Stability’ ‘Ecological stability’ has been defined as the ability of a given ecosystem to return to the initial equilibrium state after disturbance [29]. Additionally, this notion has been taken as an intrinsic ability to maintain ecological functions despite disturbance [30]. Ecosystem stability emerges from three complementary attributes [31]: resilience, adaptability, and transformability. While scholars have traditionally concentrated on resilience and adaptability, more recently—in a time of global change—it seems that the concept of transformability is becoming equally important in landscape ecology [32,33]. ‘Resilience’ was
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