Extratropical Cyclones Mid-Latitude Cyclones
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A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes
Garner, J. M., 2013: A study of synoptic-scale tornado regimes. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 8 (3), 1–25. A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes JONATHAN M. GARNER NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK (Submitted 21 November 2012; in final form 06 August 2013) ABSTRACT The significant tornado parameter (STP) has been used by severe-thunderstorm forecasters since 2003 to identify environments favoring development of strong to violent tornadoes. The STP and its individual components of mixed-layer (ML) CAPE, 0–6-km bulk wind difference (BWD), 0–1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH), and ML lifted condensation level (LCL) have been calculated here using archived surface objective analysis data, and then examined during the period 2003−2010 over the central and eastern United States. These components then were compared and contrasted in order to distinguish between environmental characteristics analyzed for three different synoptic-cyclone regimes that produced significantly tornadic supercells: cold fronts, warm fronts, and drylines. Results show that MLCAPE contributes strongly to the dryline significant-tornado environment, while it was less pronounced in cold- frontal significant-tornado regimes. The 0–6-km BWD was found to contribute equally to all three significant tornado regimes, while 0–1-km SRH more strongly contributed to the cold-frontal significant- tornado environment than for the warm-frontal and dryline regimes. –––––––––––––––––––––––– 1. Background and motivation As detailed in Hobbs et al. (1996), synoptic- scale cyclones that foster tornado development Parameter-based and pattern-recognition evolve with time as they emerge over the central forecast techniques have been essential and eastern contiguous United States (hereafter, components of anticipating tornadoes in the CONUS). -
Weather Charts Natural History Museum of Utah – Nature Unleashed Stefan Brems
Weather Charts Natural History Museum of Utah – Nature Unleashed Stefan Brems Across the world, many different charts of different formats are used by different governments. These charts can be anything from a simple prognostic chart, used to convey weather forecasts in a simple to read visual manner to the much more complex Wind and Temperature charts used by meteorologists and pilots to determine current and forecast weather conditions at high altitudes. When used properly these charts can be the key to accurately determining the weather conditions in the near future. This Write-Up will provide a brief introduction to several common types of charts. Prognostic Charts To the untrained eye, this chart looks like a strange piece of modern art that an angry mathematician scribbled numbers on. However, this chart is an extremely important resource when evaluating the movement of weather fronts and pressure areas. Fronts Depicted on the chart are weather front combined into four categories; Warm Fronts, Cold Fronts, Stationary Fronts and Occluded Fronts. Warm fronts are depicted by red line with red semi-circles covering one edge. The front movement is indicated by the direction the semi- circles are pointing. The front follows the Semi-Circles. Since the example above has the semi-circles on the top, the front would be indicated as moving up. Cold fronts are depicted as a blue line with blue triangles along one side. Like warm fronts, the direction in which the blue triangles are pointing dictates the direction of the cold front. Stationary fronts are frontal systems which have stalled and are no longer moving. -
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS a Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Re
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts in Geography By Ilya Neyman May 2013 The thesis of Ilya Neyman is approved: _______________________ _________________ Dr. Steve LaDochy Date _______________________ _________________ Dr. Ron Davidson Date _______________________ _________________ Dr. James Hayes, Chair Date California State University, Northridge ii TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE ii ABSTRACT iv INTRODUCTION 1 THESIS STATEMENT 12 IMPORTANT TERMS AND DEFINITIONS 13 LITERATURE REVIEW 17 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 24 TRADITIONALLY RECOGNIZED TORNADIC PARAMETERS 28 CASE STUDY 1: SEPTEMBER 10, 2011 33 CASE STUDY 2: JULY 29, 2003 48 CASE STUDY 3: JANUARY 19, 2010 62 CASE STUDY 4: MAY 22, 2008 91 CONCLUSIONS 111 REFERENCES 116 iii ABSTRACT FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS By Ilya Neyman Master of Arts in Geography Thunderstorms are a significant forecasting concern for southern California. Even though convection across this region is less frequent than in many other parts of the country significant thunderstorm events and occasional severe weather does occur. It has been found that a further challenge in convective forecasting across southern California is due to the variety of sub-regions that exist including coastal plains, inland valleys, mountains and deserts, each of which is associated with different weather conditions and sometimes drastically different convective parameters. In this paper four recent thunderstorm case studies were conducted, with each one representative of a different category of seasonal and synoptic patterns that are known to affect southern California. In addition to supporting points made in prior literature there were numerous new and unique findings that were discovered during the scope of this research and these are discussed as they are investigated in their respective case study as applicable. -
History of Frontal Concepts Tn Meteorology
HISTORY OF FRONTAL CONCEPTS TN METEOROLOGY: THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE NORWEGIAN THEORY by Gardner Perry III Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June, 1961 Signature of'Author . ~ . ........ Department of Humangties, May 17, 1959 Certified by . v/ .-- '-- -T * ~ . ..... Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Chairman0 0 e 0 o mmite0 0 Chairman, Departmental Committee on Theses II ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research for and the development of this thesis could not have been nearly as complete as it is without the assistance of innumerable persons; to any that I may have momentarily forgotten, my sincerest apologies. Conversations with Professors Giorgio de Santilw lana and Huston Smith provided many helpful and stimulat- ing thoughts. Professor Frederick Sanders injected thought pro- voking and clarifying comments at precisely the correct moments. This contribution has proven invaluable. The personnel of the following libraries were most cooperative with my many requests for assistance: Human- ities Library (M.I.T.), Science Library (M.I.T.), Engineer- ing Library (M.I.T.), Gordon MacKay Library (Harvard), and the Weather Bureau Library (Suitland, Md.). Also, the American Meteorological Society and Mr. David Ludlum were helpful in suggesting sources of material. In getting through the myriad of minor technical details Professor Roy Lamson and Mrs. Blender were indis-. pensable. And finally, whatever typing that I could not find time to do my wife, Mary, has willingly done. ABSTRACT The frontal concept, as developed by the Norwegian Meteorologists, is the foundation of modern synoptic mete- orology. The Norwegian theory, when presented, was rapidly accepted by the world's meteorologists, even though its several precursors had been rejected or Ignored. -
Observed Cyclone–Anticyclone Tropopause Vortex Asymmetries
JANUARY 2005 H A K I M A N D CANAVAN 231 Observed Cyclone–Anticyclone Tropopause Vortex Asymmetries GREGORY J. HAKIM AND AMELIA K. CANAVAN University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received 30 September 2003, in final form 28 June 2004) ABSTRACT Relatively little is known about coherent vortices near the extratropical tropopause, even with regard to basic facts about their frequency of occurrence, longevity, and structure. This study addresses these issues through an objective census of observed tropopause vortices. The authors test a hypothesis regarding vortex-merger asymmetry where cyclone pairs are repelled and anticyclone pairs are attracted by divergent flow due to frontogenesis. Emphasis is placed on arctic vortices, where jet stream influences are weaker, in order to facilitate comparisons with earlier idealized numerical simulations. Results show that arctic cyclones are more numerous, persistent, and stronger than arctic anticyclones. An average of 15 cyclonic vortices and 11 anticyclonic vortices are observed per month, with maximum frequency of occurrence for cyclones (anticyclones) during winter (summer). There are are about 47% more cyclones than anticyclones that survive at least 4 days, and for longer lifetimes, 1-day survival probabilities are nearly constant at 65% for cyclones, and 55% for anticyclones. Mean tropopause potential-temperature amplitude is 13 K for cyclones and 11 K for anticyclones, with cyclones exhibiting a greater tail toward larger values. An analysis of close-proximity vortex pairs reveals divergence between cyclones and convergence be- tween anticyclones. This result agrees qualitatively with previous idealized numerical simulations, although it is unclear to what extent the divergent circulations regulate vortex asymmetries. -
Extratropical Cyclones and Anticyclones
© Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION Courtesy of Jeff Schmaltz, the MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC/NASA Extratropical Cyclones 10 and Anticyclones CHAPTER OUTLINE INTRODUCTION A TIME AND PLACE OF TRAGEDY A LiFE CYCLE OF GROWTH AND DEATH DAY 1: BIRTH OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ■■ Typical Extratropical Cyclone Paths DaY 2: WiTH THE FI TZ ■■ Portrait of the Cyclone as a Young Adult ■■ Cyclones and Fronts: On the Ground ■■ Cyclones and Fronts: In the Sky ■■ Back with the Fitz: A Fateful Course Correction ■■ Cyclones and Jet Streams 298 9781284027372_CH10_0298.indd 298 8/10/13 5:00 PM © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION Introduction 299 DaY 3: THE MaTURE CYCLONE ■■ Bittersweet Badge of Adulthood: The Occlusion Process ■■ Hurricane West Wind ■■ One of the Worst . ■■ “Nosedive” DaY 4 (AND BEYOND): DEATH ■■ The Cyclone ■■ The Fitzgerald ■■ The Sailors THE EXTRATROPICAL ANTICYCLONE HIGH PRESSURE, HiGH HEAT: THE DEADLY EUROPEAN HEAT WaVE OF 2003 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER ■■ Summary ■■ Key Terms ■■ Review Questions ■■ Observation Activities AFTER COMPLETING THIS CHAPTER, YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO: • Describe the different life-cycle stages in the Norwegian model of the extratropical cyclone, identifying the stages when the cyclone possesses cold, warm, and occluded fronts and life-threatening conditions • Explain the relationship between a surface cyclone and winds at the jet-stream level and how the two interact to intensify the cyclone • Differentiate between extratropical cyclones and anticyclones in terms of their birthplaces, life cycles, relationships to air masses and jet-stream winds, threats to life and property, and their appearance on satellite images INTRODUCTION What do you see in the diagram to the right: a vase or two faces? This classic psychology experiment exploits our amazing ability to recognize visual patterns. -
NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
Unified Surface Analysis Manual Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Honolulu Forecast Office November 21, 2013 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers…………….3 Chapter 2: Datasets available for creation of the Unified Analysis………...…..5 Chapter 3: The Unified Surface Analysis and related features.……….……….19 Chapter 4: Creation/Merging of the Unified Surface Analysis………….……..24 Chapter 5: Bibliography………………………………………………….…….30 Appendix A: Unified Graphics Legend showing Ocean Center symbols.….…33 2 Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers 1. INTRODUCTION Since 1942, surface analyses produced by several different offices within the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service (NWS) were generally based on the Norwegian Cyclone Model (Bjerknes 1919) over land, and in recent decades, the Shapiro-Keyser Model over the mid-latitudes of the ocean. The graphic below shows a typical evolution according to both models of cyclone development. Conceptual models of cyclone evolution showing lower-tropospheric (e.g., 850-hPa) geopotential height and fronts (top), and lower-tropospheric potential temperature (bottom). (a) Norwegian cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) and (III) narrowing warm sector, (IV) occlusion; (b) Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) frontal fracture, (III) frontal T-bone and bent-back front, (IV) frontal T-bone and warm seclusion. Panel (b) is adapted from Shapiro and Keyser (1990) , their FIG. 10.27 ) to enhance the zonal elongation of the cyclone and fronts and to reflect the continued existence of the frontal T-bone in stage IV. -
December 2013
Oklahoma Monthly Climate Summary DECEMBER 2013 A frigid and sometimes icy December seemed a fitting way to 1.53 inches, about a half-inch below normal, to rank as the close out the boisterous weather of 2013. Preliminary data from 59th wettest December on record. That total is possibly an the Oklahoma Mesonet ranked the month as the 17th coolest underestimate due to the frozen precipitation, although the December on record at nearly 4 degrees below normal. Records moisture pattern across various parts of the state was quite of this type for Oklahoma date back to 1895. The statewide clear. Far southeastern Oklahoma received from 3-5 inches average temperature as recorded by the Mesonet was 35.2 during the month while western areas of the state received degrees. As chilly as it seemed, however, that mark provided less than a half-inch, in general. little threat to 1983’s record cold of 25.8 degrees, but also far cooler than 2012’s 42.1 degrees. There were two significant The cold December propelled 2013’s statewide average winter storms during December, each creating headaches for annual temperature to a mark of 58.9 degrees, 0.8 degrees travelers and power utility companies. The first storm struck on below normal and the 27th coolest calendar year on record for December 5-6 in two separate waves and brought freezing rain, the state. That mark stands in stark contrast to 2012’s record sleet and snow across the state. Significant snow totals of 5-6 warm year of 63.1 degrees. -
Meteorology – Lecture 19
Meteorology – Lecture 19 Robert Fovell [email protected] 1 Important notes • These slides show some figures and videos prepared by Robert G. Fovell (RGF) for his “Meteorology” course, published by The Great Courses (TGC). Unless otherwise identified, they were created by RGF. • In some cases, the figures employed in the course video are different from what I present here, but these were the figures I provided to TGC at the time the course was taped. • These figures are intended to supplement the videos, in order to facilitate understanding of the concepts discussed in the course. These slide shows cannot, and are not intended to, replace the course itself and are not expected to be understandable in isolation. • Accordingly, these presentations do not represent a summary of each lecture, and neither do they contain each lecture’s full content. 2 Animations linked in the PowerPoint version of these slides may also be found here: http://people.atmos.ucla.edu/fovell/meteo/ 3 Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and drylines 4 This map shows a dryline that formed in Texas during April 2000. The dryline is indicated by unfilled half-circles in orange, pointing at the more moist air. We see little T contrast but very large TD change. Dew points drop from 68F to 29F -- huge decrease in humidity 5 Animation 6 Supercell thunderstorms 7 The secret ingredient for supercells is large amounts of vertical wind shear. CAPE is necessary but sufficient shear is essential. It is shear that makes the difference between an ordinary multicellular thunderstorm and the rotating supercell. The shear implies rotation. -
An Examination of the Mesoscale Environment of the James Island Memorial Day Tornado
19.6 AN EXAMINATION OF THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT OF THE JAMES ISLAND MEMORIAL DAY TORNADO STEVEN B. TAYLOR NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE CHARLESTON, SC 1. INTRODUCTION conditions also induced weak cyclogenesis along the front near the vicinity of KVDI. By 1200 UTC A cluster of severe thunderstorms the surface low was located between KNBC and moved across portions of south coastal South KCHS. This low and its influences on the Carolina during the early morning hours of 30 kinematic environment as well as the eventual May 2006. Around 1135 UTC, a severe position of the surface frontal boundary will prove thunderstorm spawned an F-1 tornado in the to be the main contributing factors leading to the James Island community of Charleston, SC. The development of the James Island tornado. tornado produced wind and structural damage as it moved rapidly NE through several residential neighborhoods. The tornado was on the ground for approximately 0.1 mi before it emerged into the Atlantic Ocean as a large waterspout near the entrance to the Charleston Harbor. Timely tornado warnings were issued by the NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office (WFO) in Charleston, SC (CHS), despite the event occurring during a climatologically rare time of day. This study will concentrate on the mesoscale factors that supported the genesis of the tornado and its parent severe thunderstorm. Radar data generated by the KCLX WSR-88D will also be presented. 2. SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT The synoptic environment supported the development of scattered convective precipitation Fig 1. Map of eastern SC/GA across much of the coastal areas of the Carolinas and Georgia. -
ESSENTIALS of METEOROLOGY (7Th Ed.) GLOSSARY
ESSENTIALS OF METEOROLOGY (7th ed.) GLOSSARY Chapter 1 Aerosols Tiny suspended solid particles (dust, smoke, etc.) or liquid droplets that enter the atmosphere from either natural or human (anthropogenic) sources, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Sulfur-containing fossil fuels, such as coal, produce sulfate aerosols. Air density The ratio of the mass of a substance to the volume occupied by it. Air density is usually expressed as g/cm3 or kg/m3. Also See Density. Air pressure The pressure exerted by the mass of air above a given point, usually expressed in millibars (mb), inches of (atmospheric mercury (Hg) or in hectopascals (hPa). pressure) Atmosphere The envelope of gases that surround a planet and are held to it by the planet's gravitational attraction. The earth's atmosphere is mainly nitrogen and oxygen. Carbon dioxide (CO2) A colorless, odorless gas whose concentration is about 0.039 percent (390 ppm) in a volume of air near sea level. It is a selective absorber of infrared radiation and, consequently, it is important in the earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. Solid CO2 is called dry ice. Climate The accumulation of daily and seasonal weather events over a long period of time. Front The transition zone between two distinct air masses. Hurricane A tropical cyclone having winds in excess of 64 knots (74 mi/hr). Ionosphere An electrified region of the upper atmosphere where fairly large concentrations of ions and free electrons exist. Lapse rate The rate at which an atmospheric variable (usually temperature) decreases with height. (See Environmental lapse rate.) Mesosphere The atmospheric layer between the stratosphere and the thermosphere. -
Surface Station Model (U.S.)
Surface Station Model (U.S.) Notes: Pressure Leading 10 or 9 is not plotted for surface pressure Greater than 500 = 950 to 999 mb Less than 500 = 1000 to 1050 mb 988 Æ 998.8 mb 200 Æ 1020.0 mb Sky Cover, Weather Symbols on a Surface Station Model Wind Speed How to read: Half barb = 5 knots Full barb = 10 knots Flag = 50 knots 1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour = 1.15 mph = 65 knots The direction of the Wind direction barb reflects which way the wind is coming from NORTHERLY From the north 360° 270° 90° 180° WESTERLY EASTERLY From the west From the east SOUTHERLY From the south Four types of fronts COLD FRONT: Cold air overtakes warm air. B to C WARM FRONT: Warm air overtakes cold air. C to D OCCLUDED FRONT: Cold air catches up to the warm front. C to Low pressure center STATIONARY FRONT: No movement of air masses. A to B Fronts and Extratropical Cyclones Feb. 24, 2007 Case In mid-latitudes, fronts are part of the structure of extratropical cyclones. Extratropical cyclones form because of the horizontal temperature gradient and are part of the general circulation—helping to transport energy from equator to pole. Type of weather and air masses in relation to fronts: Feb. 24, 2007 case mPmP cPcP mTmT Characteristics of a front 1. Sharp temperature changes over a short distance 2. Changes in moisture content 3. Wind shifts 4. A lowering of surface pressure, or pressure trough 5. Clouds and precipitation We’ll see how these characteristics manifest themselves for fronts in North America using the example from Feb.