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Strategic Political Counsel Pre-Election Brief Prepared June

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Strategic Political Counsel Pre-Election Brief Prepared June Strategic Political Counsel Pre-Election Brief Prepared June 30, 2016 Introduction This Brief contains an overview of marginal seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and also provides information about who the current seat is held by, including the incumbent member, the main contestant, and most importantly, the margin by which the seat is currently held. Additionally, this brief includes opinion polls for both the primary and 2PP vote of both upper and lower houses. Executive Summary With the election only a few days away, our research indicates the following; Strategic Political Counsel’s Election Forecast: House of Representatives 1. Labor’s primary vote has dipped across the country, but they are still favoured to pick up a number of marginal seats. 2. The Coalition will win a workable majority of 82-83 seats in the House of Representatives. 3. Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce will retain New England. 4. The Nationals are a strong chance to win the seat of Murray. 5. Luke Hartsuyker will retain Cowper. 6. Natasha Griggs will not retain Solomon. 7. Jamie Briggs will lose Mayo to Nick Xenophon Team candidate Rebekha Sharkie. 8. Christopher Pyne will retain Sturt, defeating the Nick Xenophon Team candidate by a comfortable margin. 9. Cathy McGowan will retain Indi. Senate 1. The Coalition will win 31-32 Senate seats. 2. The Nick Xenophon Team will win between 25% - 30% of the senate vote in South Australia and win 4 Senate seats, with the possibility of a 5th in Western Australia or Victoria. 3. Jacquie Lambie will be re-elected. 4. The Nationals have an opportunity to pick up a seat either in WA or Tasmania. 5. Derryn Hinch will not win a Senate seat. 6. Pauline Hanson is unlikely to win a Senate seat. 43 Phillip St, Sydney NSW 02 8272 0616 2 Political Environment • The double dissolution election has been called for 02 July 2016. • To form government, a party must win 76 seats at an election. • The Coalition currently hold 90 seats, with the ALP holding 55. • The remaining 5 seats are held by The Greens, The Palmer United Party, or Independents. • Since December 2015, the polls have dipped for the Coalition, while Labor have lifted slightly. • Polling for minor parties is relatively high, between 10-15%. Coalition • The Coalition has run an unremarkable campaign, which has seen the polls level out as we approach election day. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is still the preferred Prime Minister, holding a strong lead over opposition leader Bill Shorten. ALP • The ALP has run into campaign problems over the last two weeks, mainly in regards to costings. The result of the Brexit referendum in the UK, and the uncertainty that comes with it, has not assisted their cause. The feeling in the electorate is that communities do not want another change in government. Boundary Changes The re-distribution of electorate boundaries has resulted in the ALP notionally picking up two seats overall. In NSW, the Coalition held seats of Barton, Patterson and Dobell have all become notional Labor seats, while the division of Charlton (a Labor controlled seat) has been abolished. In Western Australia, a new seat has been created (Burt) which is a notional Liberal seat. This means that Coalition notionally hold 88 seats, with Labor holding 57. 43 Phillip St, Sydney NSW 02 8272 0616 3 Key Marginal Seats The following seats have been identified by the Australian Electoral Commission as marginal, or identified by Strategic Political Counsel as marginal due to outside circumstances. NEW SOUTH WALES SEAT PARTY Margin Sportsbet Incumbent Contestant Odds Barton Liberal -4.39 ALP: 1.05 Nickolas Varvaris Linda Burney LIB: 8.50 Patterson Liberal -0.27 ALP: 1.15 Karen Howard Meryl Swanson LIB: 5.00 (Won preselection) Dobell Liberal -0.18 ALP: 1.30 Karen McNamara Emma McBride LIB: 3.30 Parramatta Australian 1.32 ALP: 1.10 Julie Owens Michael Beckwith Labor Party LIB: 6.00 Richmond Australian 1.58 ALP: 1.15 Justine Elliot Matther Fraser Labor Party LIB: 5.00 (Nationals) Kingsford Australian 2.74 ALP: 1.05 Matt Thistlethwaite Michael Feneley Smith Labor Party LIB: 8.50 Banks Liberal 2.8 LIB: 1.20 David Coleman Chris Gambian ALP: 4.20 Eden- Liberal 2.91 ALP: 1.35 Peter Hendy Mike Kelly Monaro LIB: 3.00 Greenway Australian 2.98 ALP: 1.35 Michelle Rowland Yyvone Keane Labor Party LIB: 3.00 Lindsay Liberal 2.99 LIB: 1.27 Fiona Scott Emma Huar ALP: 3.50 Robertson Liberal 3.09 LIB: 1.25 Lucy Wicks Anne Charlton ALP: 3.75 Page The Nationals 3.1 ALP: 1.45 Kevin Hogan Janelle Saffin NAT: 2.60 Reid Liberal 3.33 LIB: 1.15 Craig Laundy Angelo Tsirekas ALP: 5.00 MacArthur Liberal 3.39 ALP: 1.65 Russell Matheson Michael Freelander LIB: 2.15 Gilmore Liberal 3.78 LIB: 1.35 Ann Sudmalis Fiona Phillips ALP: 3.00 Macquarie Liberal 4.48 LIB: 1.52 Louise Markus Susan Templeton ALP: 2.40 Hunter Australian 5.68 ALP: 1.01 Joel Fitzgibbon N/A Labor Party LIB: 16.00 New The Nationals 19.6 ALP: 1.30 Barnaby Joyce Tony Windsor England IND: 3.30 (Independent) Notes New South Wales is predicted to have the largest number of seats changing hands. The re-distribution in NSW turns two existing Coalition seats (Barton and Patterson) into notional ALP seats. Other seats tipped to fall to Labor include Eden-Monaro and Paterson. 43 Phillip St, Sydney NSW 02 8272 0616 4 Tony Windsor is contesting the seat of New England, which has turned a very safe Coalition seat into a marginal seat, with polling in March showing that the contest was 50/50. While many expect Barnaby Joyce to retain the seat, it will be at a much smaller margin. PREDCTION: • Barnaby Joyce to retain New England • Peter Hendy to retain Eden Monaro 43 Phillip St, Sydney NSW 02 8272 0616 5 QUEENSLAND SEAT PARTY Margin Sportsbet Incumbent Contestant Odds Fairfax Palmer United 0.03 LNP: 1.01 Clive Palmer – • Scott Anderson Party ALP: 16.00 Not Contesting (ALP) • Ted O’Brien (LNP) Petrie Liberal National 0.53 ALP: 1.38 Luke Howarth Jacqui Pederson Party LNP: 3.00 Capricornia Liberal National 0.77 ALP: 1.60 Michelle Landry Leisa Neaton Party LNP: 2.25 Lilley Australian Labor 1.32 ALP: 1.05 Wayne Swan David Kingston Party LNP: 8.50 Moreton Australian Labor 1.55 ALP: 1.03 Graham Perrett Nic Monsour Party LNP: 5.00 Kennedy Katter's 2.19 KAP: 1.05 Bob Katter • Norm Jacobsen Australian Party LNP: 8.50 (ALP) • Jonathan Pavetto (LNP) Griffith Australian Labor 3.01 ALP: 1.15 Terri Butler Fiona Ward Party LNP: 5.00 Bonner Liberal National 3.69 LNP: 1.12 Ross Vasta Laura Fraser Hardy Party ALP: 4.00 Oxley Australian Labor 3.77 ALP: 1.05 Milton Dick (Won Bibe Roadley Party LNP: : 8.50 Preselection) Brisbane Liberal National 4.28 LNP: 1.40 Trevor Evans Pat O’Neill Party ALP: 2.75 (Won Preselection) Forde Liberal National 4.38 LNP: 1.40 Bert van Manen Des Hardman Party ALP: 2.50 Rankin Australian Labor 4.78 ALP: 1.01 Jim Chalmers Freya Ostapovitch Party LNP: 16.00 Blair Australian Labor 5.26 ALP: 1.08 Shayne Neumann Teresa Harding Party LNP: 6.00 Leichhardt Liberal National 5.68 LNP: 1.06 Warren Entsch Sharron Howes Party ALP: 9.00 Herbert Liberal National 6.17 LNP: 1.15 Ewen Jones Cathy O’Toole Party ALP: 5.00 Flynn Liberal National 6.53 LNP: 1.20 Ken O'Dowd Zac Beers Party ALP: 3.00 Dickson Liberal National 6.72 LNP: 1.10 Peter Dutton Linda Lavarch Party ALP: 6.00 Longman Liberal National 6.92 ALP: 1.15 Wyatt Roy Susan Lamb Party LNP: 5.00 Notes Fairfax will not be contested by Clive Palmer and is tipped to return to the Liberal National Party. Capricornia is traditionally a safe Labor seat, and is thought to be at significant risk given the swing against the government. The electorate of Petrie is also at risk. 43 Phillip St, Sydney NSW 02 8272 0616 6 VICTORIA SEAT PARTY Margin Sportsbet Incumbent Contestant Odds McEwen Australian Labor 0.15 ALP: 1.08 Rob Mitchell Chris Jermyn Party LIB: 7.00 Indi Independent 0.25 IND: 1.15 Cathy • Matt Corboy NAT: 6.00 McGowan (Nat) LIB: 11.00 • Sophie Mirabella (Lib) Bendigo Australian Labor 1.26 ALP: 1.10 Lisa Chesters Megan Purcell Party LIB: 6.00 Chisolm Australian Labor 1.6 ALP: 1.36 Stefanie Perri Julia Banks Party LIB: 3.00 (Won preselection) Bruce Australian Labor 1.8 ALP: 1.10 Julian Hill (Won Helen Kroger Party LIB: 6.00 preselection) Jagajaga Australian Labor 3.13 ALP: 1.05 Jenny Macklin David Mulholland Party LIB: 8.50 Deakin Liberal 3.18 LIB: 1.20 Michael Sukkar Tony Clark ALP: 4.20 Melbourne Australian Labor 3.56 ALP: 1.25 Michael Danby Owen Guest Ports Party LIB: 4.00 Isaacs Australian Labor 3.86 ALP: 1.01 Mark Dreyfus Garry Spencer Party LIB: 16.00 Corangamite Liberal 3.94 LIB: 1.05 Sarah Libby Coker ALP: 8.50 Henderson La Trobe Liberal 4.01 LIB: 1.17 Jason Wood Simon Curtis ALP: 4.50 Ballarat Australian Labor 4.89 ALP: 1.01 Catherine King • Paul Tatchell Party LIB: 12.00 (Nat) • Sarah Wade (Lib) Melbourne The Greens 5.27 GRN: 1.05 Adam Bandt • Sophie Ismail ALP: 9.00 (ALP) • Philip Liu (Lib) Dunkley Liberal 5.57 LIB: 1.17 Chris Crewther Peta Murphy ALP: 3.50 (Won Preselection) Mallee The Nationals 6.21 NAT: 1.01 Andrew Broad Lydia Senior ALP: 21.00 Batman Australian Labor 10.6 ALP: 1.80 David Feeney • George Souris Party GRN: 1.95 (Lib) LIB: 34.00 • Alex Bhathal (Greens) Notes The seat of Batman was considered a very strong chance to fall to The Greens, however the recent announcement that the Liberal Party will preference the Greens last has made this unlikely.
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