2009 QUEENSLAND ELECTION Analysis of Results
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2009 QUEENSLAND ELECTION Analysis of Results CONTENTS Introduction ....................................................................................................1 Summary of Redistribution ...........................................................................3 Legislative Assembly Election Summary of Legislative Assembly Results............................................7 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral District .............................. 12 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ........................................... 27 Regional Summaries ........................................................................... 33 By-elections 2007 - 2011..................................................................... 36 Selected Preference Distributions .............................................................. 37 Changes in Parliamentary Membership ..................................................... 39 Queensland Election Results 1947-2007 ................................................... 40 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MP in the previous parliament. Notes indicate where an MP is contesting a different electorate. .... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election. Party Abbreviations ALP Australian Labor Party DEM Australian Democrats DLP Democratic Labor Party DSQ Daylight Saving for South East Queensland FFP Family First IND Independents GRN The Greens LIB Liberal Party LNP Liberal National Party NAT The Nationals ONP One Nation OTH Others Important Dates Legislative Assembly dissolved Monday 23 February 2009 Issue of Writs Monday 23 February 2009 Close of Rolls 5pm Saturday 28 February 2009 Close of Nominations Noon, Tuesday 3 March 2009 Polling Day Saturday 21 March 2009 Return of Writ Tuesday 7 April 2009 Amendment Log 11 Sep 2011 First published 20 Sep 2011 p36, four seats were won by the LNP in the Wide Bay-Burnett region and none by Labor, not the reverse as originally published. 22 Sep 2011 p3 and p4, two incorrect references to Cunningham corrected to read Condamine. 2009 Queensland Election INTRODUCTION This paper provides an analysis of the results of the 2009 Queensland election. The election followed a major redistribution that re-drew the state's electoral boundaries. The number of electorates remained unchanged at 89, but the new boundaries effectively moved three electorates to the state's populated south-east. A summary of the redistribution is provided on page 3. More details of the redistribution can be found in the publication "2008 Queensland Redistribution: Analysis of Redistributed Boundaries based on 2006 Election Results", Antony Green, Queensland Parliamentary Library Research Brief No 2008/43 It was also the first election following the merger of the Liberal Party and the National Party to form the Liberal National Party or LNP. There were no contests between the two parties in 2006, but redistribution calculations meant that many of the new seats had historical votes for both parties based on 2006 results. This has been dealt with by simply merging the 2006 vote for the two parties as the historic vote for the LNP at the 2009 election. Any seat with an LNP majority of the 2-candidate preferred vote has been classed as LNP-held. Format for Electorate Results For each Legislative Assembly electorate, full details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes are provided along with change of vote compared to adjusted results for the 2006 election. The format and calculations used in the electorate results are as follows. First Count: The votes shown for each candidate are the total of first preference votes received. Percentage votes for each candidate are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote. Swing is calculated by subtracting the adjusted percentage vote received by each party at the 2006 election from the percentage received at the 2009 election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. LNP candidate swings are measured against the combined support for Liberal and National candidates in 2006. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the distribution of preferences in an electorate. All ballot papers that did not indicate a preference for one of the final two candidates in the contest are included in the 'Exhausted' total. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for each candidate by the total of votes remaining in the count, or the formal minus the exhausted total. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the final candidates from the previous election adjusted for the redistribution. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the previous election, ghost candidates appear and more than two swing figures are shown. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results Two-candidate Preferred Count: To win an electorate a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. The distribution of preferences is performed by successively excluding candidates with the lowest primary vote and transferring that candidate’s ballot papers to other candidates remaining in the count according to the voter's preferences on the ballot paper. At the end of the count, the vote for the two final candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred vote'. Two-Party Preferred Count: Most Australian elections finish as a contest between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition, or the LNP in the modern case of Queensland. At the 2009 election, 83 of the 89 finished with the final two candidates representing Labor and the LNP. Four electorates finished as contests between the LNP and Independents (Condamine, Maryborough, Nanango, Nicklin), while Dalrymple finished as a contest between LNP and One Nation candidates. There was no LNP candidate in Gladstone and the contest was between Labor and an Independent. In the first five of these electorates an estimate of two-party preferred vote has been calculated based on distributing the Independent or One Nation candidate at the final stage of the distribution of Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 1 2009 Queensland Election preferences. The estimate used has been that 60% of preferences would exhaust, 30% flow to the LNP and 10% to Labor, Similar preference estimates were used to calculate corresponding two-party preferred margins for the adjusted 2006 results. Note that it was impossible to estimate a margin in Charters Towers between the LNP and One Nation so an estimates two-party preferred vote has been used as the historic figure. In Gladstone the two-candidate preferred result between Labor and sitting Independent MP Liz Cunningham has been used as the two-party preferred result for both the 2006 and 2009 elections. Redistribution Calculations As noted earlier, all redistribution calculations are drawn from "2008 Queensland Redistribution: Analysis of Redistributed Boundaries based on 2006 Election Results", Antony Green, Queensland Parliamentary Library Research Brief No 2008/43. These details are summarised on page 3. Disclaimer All results are based on details made available by the Electoral Commission Queensland. However, responsibility for all calculations and omissions is taken by the author. The author also takes responsibility for estimated two-party preferred results in the six seats where two-party results are not available. Antony Green September 2011 2 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 2009 Queensland Election SUMMARY OF REDISTRIBUTION Party Composition Following 2006 Election and Based on New Electoral Boundaries S e a t s H e l d b y P a r t y Labor Liberal National Other Total Old Boundaries 59 8 17 5 89 New Boundaries 62 ---- 23 ---- 4 89 Note: Analysis of the new boundaries takes account of the newly amalgamated Liberal National Party. The analysis does not take account of by-elections or members who have resigned from their party since being elected at the 2006 election. Explaining the Change in Party Numbers The redistribution effectively moved three seats to the state's south-east corner. In the north Fitzroy was abolished while Charters Towers and Tablelands were largely amalgamated as the new seat of Dalrymple. In the south Cunningham and Darling Downs were abolished and the seat of Condamine created in their place. The new seats were Buderim on the Sunshine Coast, Morayfield in the Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor, and Coomera in the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor. Labor lost Fitzroy (abolished) but notionally gained the new seats of Coomera and Morayfield. The LNP seats of Charters Towers, Cunningham and Darling Downs were abolished but the party notionally held the new seats of Buderim, Condamine and Dalrymple. Four seats changed notional party status, the Labor seat of Glass House becoming a notional LNP seat, while sitting LNP members in Burdekin, Clayfield and Mirani re-contested seats that had become notional Labor seats. Swing for Change of Government Old Boundaries New Boundaries Seats Swing Seats Swing For Labor to lose majority 15 7.2 18 7.6 For Liberal National majority 20 8.3 22 8.3 Re-named Electorates (3) Electorate Old Margin New Margin Comments Mermaid Beach LIB 2.5 LNP 2.8 New name for the abolished electorate of Robina Pine Rivers ALP 12.4 ALP 13.3 Largely replaces