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PALASZCZUK’S SECOND YEAR AN OVERVIEW OF 2016 ANN SCOTT HOWARD GUILLE ROGER SCOTT with cartoons by SEAN LEAHY Foreword This publication1 is the fifth in a series of Queensland political chronicles published by the TJRyan Foundation since 2012. The first two focussed on Parliament.2 They were written after the Liberal National Party had won a landslide victory and the Australian Labor Party was left with a tiny minority, led by Annastacia Palaszczuk. The third, Queensland 2014: Political Battleground,3 published in January 2015, was completed shortly before the LNP lost office in January 2015. In it we used military metaphors and the language which typified the final year of the Newman Government. The fourth, Palaszczuk’s First Year: a Political Juggling Act,4 covered the first year of the ALP minority government. The book had a cartoon by Sean Leahy on its cover which used circus metaphors to portray 2015 as a year of political balancing acts. It focussed on a single year, starting with the accession to power of the Palaszczuk Government in mid-February 2015. Given the parochial focus of our books we draw on a limited range of sources. The TJRyan Foundation website provides a repository for online sources including our own Research Reports on a range of Queensland policy areas, and papers catalogued by policy topic, as well as Queensland political history.5 A number of these reports give the historical background to the current study, particularly the anthology of contributions The Newman Years: Rise, Decline and Fall.6 Electronic links have been provided to open online sources, notably the ABC News, Brisbane Times, The Guardian, and The Conversation. Any sources that are behind paywalls, such as the Courier-Mail, are given traditional citations. The TJRyan Foundation is grateful to Sean Leahy for, once again, giving us permission to reproduce cartoons that first appeared in the Courier-Mail. Mr Leahy maintains his own online archive of his cartoons.7 Drafts of this publication were read by various members of the TJRyan Foundation. I am grateful for their insights and advice. However, the authors take full responsibility for the opinions expressed. We are most grateful to Dr Chris Salisbury, who is succeeding Ann Scott as Executive Editor, for his keen editing eye and close knowledge of Queensland political history. Roger Scott February 2017 1 An electronic version of this book will be made available at: TJRyanFoundation.org.au. 2 Scott R and Scott A, Parliament under Campbell Newman 2012-2013 2013; Scott R, Parliament under Campbell Newman 2014, 2014. 3 ‘Queensland 2014: Political Battleground, TJRyan Foundation, May 2015. 4 Palaszczuk’s First Year: a political juggling act, TJRyan Foundation, May 2016. 5 TJRyan Foundation website 6 Scott A (ed) The Newman Years: Rise, Decline and Fall, February 2016. 7 Sean Leahy cartoon archive TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 PART 1: JOBS NOW AND JOBS FOR THE FUTURE 1 ‘THIS BUDGET IS ABOUT GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT’ 1 The Queensland economy in 2016 2 Employment and unemployment in Queensland 3 Estimates of the economic loss 6 Job issues in local areas 6 The double burden on Queensland 8 Policy and employment 8 The harshness of daily life 10 A summary, and the electoral politics of jobs 11 INFRASTRUCTURE 12 SHOVELS IN THE GROUND 12 The State Infrastructure Fund and the 2016 Budget 12 Complexity of arrangements for infrastructure planning and management 13 Recent history of Queensland’s approach to land-use planning 16 CONCLUSION AND CONTRADICTIONS 18 PART 2: EXECUTIVE GOVERNMENT 21 THE POLITICS OF BUREAUCRACY 21 HEALTH 24 Inherited problems 24 Federal/State issues 25 Hospital boards 25 The health of Queenslanders 26 Water fluoridation 26 Immunisation and ‘anti-vaxxers’ 27 The medicinal use of cannabis 27 EDUCATION 29 A TESTING TIME 30 INDIGENOUS EDUCATION: CRISIS IN AURUKUN 32 CURRICULUM ISSUES 34 The crowded curriculum 34 Religious education 35 Sex education 35 Teacher education 36 Capital works: the impact of high-rise developments 37 COMMONWEALTH-STATE RELATIONS 37 Medical education on the Sunshine Coast 37 A continuing scandal over Vocational Education and Training 38 THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM 40 Restoring a demoralised system 40 The Crime and Corruption Commission 40 The judiciary 41 VLAD, OMCGs and other organised crime 41 Lock-out laws 43 Crime and crime statistics 44 Making the punishment fit the crime 44 CRIME BEHIND CLOSED DOORS 45 Domestic violence 45 The abuse of children 45 Children in detention 45 Removing 17-year-olds from adult prisons 46 PART 3: POLITICIANS AND PARTIES 47 PARLIAMENT 47 KAP in Parliament 47 Changing the rules: compulsory preferential voting 47 Changing the rules: fixed four-year terms 48 The continuing significance of Independents 48 Land clearing - Gordon’s vote with the LNP 49 A Human Rights Act for Queensland 50 Social legislation 51 Freedom of speech and the future conduct of election campaigns in Queensland 52 Parliament and North Queensland separatism 52 Snap polls and fixed terms 53 THE DYNAMICS OF THE PARTY SYSTEM 54 Seismic shifts in the political environment 54 Liberal National Party - leadership change 55 The LNP and One Nation 56 Katter’s Australian Party 59 Australian Labor Party and the unions 60 The ALP and the Greens 61 The medium and the message - the Courier-Mail and the Premier 63 Is the old party system getting hit for six? 67 Finding new friends 68 PART 4: CASE STUDIES 70 1: TRANSPORT: REAPING THE WHIRLWIND 70 How Transport became a ‘poisoned chalice’ 70 Opening of the Moreton Bay link - train timetabling problems begin 72 The legacy of staffing cuts 74 2: COAL IN A WARMING WORLD 75 THE ADANI CARMICHAEL MINE 77 Court cases involving Adani Carmichael coal mine 80 The Adani Carmichael mine Land Court case 81 Evidence to the Land Court on financial capability and economic impact 84 Carmichael Coal Mine and Rail project: Coordinator-General’s evaluation report on the environmental impact statement 85 The Australian Conservation Foundation Case: the impact on the Reef 86 Burragubba v State of Queensland [2016]: the economic benefit in Native Title 87 THE NEW HOPE ACLAND MINE 88 Reviewing the approval process for the New Acland mine expansion 89 DISCUSSION: POLITICS AND DECISION-MAKING 91 Addendum: Details of Cases and Judgements about the Adani Carmichael Mine 94 ABOUT THE AUTHORS 97 INTRODUCTION In Part 1 of Palaszczuk’s Second Year: An overview of 2016, ‘Jobs now and jobs for the future’, Howard Guille focuses on the major current challenges for executive government, the budget, infrastructure planning and job creation. The capacity and accountability of politicians and the public service are an undercurrent of much that is happening in Queensland. The Queensland Government (like most Western governments) has less influence over the economy as a result of deregulation, privatisation, commercialisation and competition policy. Economic analysis is a tool in the assessment of infrastructure spending and the approval of mining and other projects. While justified as informing ‘rational’ decision-making this reduces the political discretion of politicians and is a mixed blessing – it might reduce the risks of calamitous folly but requires trust in the theory and practice of the analysis. In Part 2, ‘Executive Government’ we examine the machinery of government and the public service. Like last year, we have not attempted to cover all aspects of public policy. Instead, we concentrate again on the areas which absorb the bulk of direct public expenditure – health, education and the criminal justice system. In Part 3, ‘Politicians and parties’ as in previous years, we provide an overview of the Government’s performance in what remains a finely-balanced Parliament, and examine the policies, personalities, institutions and events that shaped that performance. We have not aimed at major theoretical insights although others may find an evidence base here for such an analysis. In a year when the outcome of elections outside Queensland has been shaped by prejudices dressed up as rationality and justified with ‘alternative facts’, our study may help provide a framework for truthful discussion. As we adjust to the seismic shifts that took place in 2016, in the political environment both at home and overseas, and move into this new and turbulent world, the institutions concerned with the democratic aspects of accountability are coming increasingly under pressure. The turbulence is likely to increase as another State election looms on the horizon, particularly within the major political parties. Finally, we have included two case studies. In the first ‘Reaping the whirlwind’ Howard Guille and Ann Scott consider the background to problems that beset Queensland Rail in the second half of 2016: the history and impact of successive governments’ policy failures. In it they question of ministerial accountability in a corporatised environment. In the second, ‘Coal in a warming world’, Howard Guille examines the processes of decision- making, especially the role of the courts, over coal mining approvals. This also raises important issues of public accountability. All levels of government in Queensland, and many interest groups, are challenged by the deeply divided underlying conflicts between the mining industry and environmental protection. PART 1: JOBS NOW AND JOBS FOR THE FUTURE1 ‘THIS BUDGET IS ABOUT GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT’2 The motif of the Palaszczuk Government is jobs; often in triplicate. The 2015 Budget phrased this as ‘jobs now and jobs for the future’. The 2016 Budget was ‘at its core about one thing, jobs’.3 Queensland Treasurer, Curtis Pitt, has linked jobs growth to economic growth saying, for example, that the 2016 Budget will ‘drive economic growth across all parts of Queensland’.4 Federal Treasurer, Scott Morrison also put jobs and growth together in his May Federal Budget.