WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25, 2013 ANALYSIS

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Issues A year later, Abe has big ‘to do’ list

By Shingo Ito

year after a landslide national election, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is riding high as his Aplan to rescue the economy earns praise at home and abroad, but chinks in his armour are beginning to show. The unprecedented policy blitz, dubbed Abenomics, ushered in growth that led G7 nations in the first half of the year, stoked a sizzling stock market rally and offered a tantalising end to years of deflation. When Abe formed his cabinet on Dec 26 he had the backing of a large proportion of the population to fol- China’s army its pride and challenge low through with a pledge to reverse two decades of lacklustre growth and debilitating deflation. Then at the beginning of 2013 he declared that By David Lague and Charlie Zhu PLA hierarchy. Within days of taking over from Hu Jintao as head divided between rival political benefactors and regional com- “Japan is back” in a speech to the New York Stock of the Central Military Commission in November last year, Xi pro- mands. While Xi was working his way up, Deng’s successor, Jiang Exchange, saying his prescription of big government t’s part of the lore of modern China. When paramount leader moted Wei Fenghe, commander of the Second Artillery Corps and Zemin, was promoting dozens of senior officers who remain in spending and monetary easing would reinvigorate the Deng Xiaoping was handing over power a generation ago, a member of the CMC, to full general. In late July and early August, positions of power today. Jiang was the man Deng advised to world’s number-three economy. He embarked on a Iwidely recounted tale goes, he had some advice for his succes- he promoted six officers to the rank of four-star general, and 18 to tend to the generals. In retirement, Jiang remains one of China’s roadshow abroad to sell Brand Japan, including signing sor. For every five working days, spend four with the top brass of lieutenant-general. leading power brokers. His military appointments made sure his a nuclear reactor deal in Turkey and focussing on fast- the People’s Liberation Army. The latest leader of China, , Eleven of those 24 officers are political generals, said Bijoy Das, influence would outlast his term. Hu Jintao, who replaced Jiang, growing economies in Southeast Asia. “This has been a shows every sign of applying that lesson. A month after assuming a Chinese expert at India’s Institute of Defence Analysis. “In likewise sought to anchor his position through military promo- very hectic year, travelling a lot overseas,” Abe said in power in November last year, Xi visited the province of essence it indicates that the Party is co-opting a section of the PLA tions and patronage before handing over to Xi. Both Jiang and Hu speech last week, adding he visited over two dozen Guangdong on his first major political tour. Of the five days he echelon to ensure that the ‘Party holds the gun,’” he said. Xi is kept the funding tap wide open for new military hardware and countries since election night. spent there, three were at a military base, according to official cov- shown mixing with the lower ranks, too. Dressed in plain military- substantially improved pay and conditions for the troops. His globetrotting burnished an image of a strong erage of his trip. style khaki slacks and shirt, the solidly built 60-year-old stands in Xi appears set to maintain heavy military spending despite leader committed to getting things done in a country The son of a Communist revolutionary commander, Xi built his mess lines, selects a plate and chopsticks from a stack and is competing needs. A hundred million Chinese still live in poverty, where the pace of policy is often glacial. And Tokyo’s career as a friend of the army, and at times an official in it. But he filmed eating and chatting with soldiers and sailors. according to official measures, and there is growing pressure to winning bid to host the 2020 Olympics gave national still feels compelled to ask his generals for something in return: spend more on health, education and pollution control. Official pride another shot in the arm, as well as promises of loyalty. “First, we must keep in mind that the military must Military Princeling defense spending is set to climb 10.7 per cent this year to $119 bil- further economic benefits. “Abenomics definitely unswervingly adhere to the party’s absolute leadership and obey Xi, like all of China’s Communist leaders, insists the PLA is lion. Much spending takes place outside the budget, however, deserves praise,” said Ivan Tselichtchev, economics pro- the party’s orders,” he said on one of his many military inspection bound with the party’s fortunes. The army delivered political pow- and many analysts estimate real outlays are closer to $200 billion, fessor at Niigata University of Management. “It has tours. er with its civil war victory in 1949 over the Nationalists. It fought second only to the United States. The US Defense Department’s greatly improved sentiment among investors and con- Xi’s injunction that the party comes first is a sign of the insecu- the US to a prestige-enhancing stalemate in Korea. It buffered 2012 budget totaled $566 billion. sumers which is a positive for economy.” Applause for rity modern Chinese leaders feel at the top of their nation’s huge tumult at home in the early decades of the People’s Republic and the two-time premier is a far cry from 2006 when his and increasingly powerful armed forces, military experts say. As it ended the 1989 Tiananmen protests in a bloody crackdown. In his Friendly Generals term ended in ignominy and illness after just a year in grows mightier, the People’s Liberation Army is growing trickier to task of cementing ties with the generals, Xi had a head start. His As Xi came to power at the 18th Party Congress in November office. govern. The PLA’s rising global profile is integral to Xi’s stated father, Xi Zhongxun, was a Communist guerrilla fighter who last year, there was substantial turnover in the Central Military This time around, Abe’s efforts are bearing fruit. His vision for the nation: the “China Dream,” a rejuvenated country policies and those of his new central bank governor that’s both peace-loving and militarily powerful. But Xi is less a Haruhiko Kuroda helped sharply weaken the yen the true military man than Deng and the founder of the People’s unit has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar this Republic, Mao Zedong. He is fundamentally a career bureaucrat, year, giving a boost to exporters - while the stock mar- like his immediate predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. ket has surged more than 50 percent to a six-year high. Like them, Xi has to win over the force that keeps the Economic growth slowed in the third quarter, but busi- Communist Party in power. But he must do so at a time when the ness confidence remains at a six-year high, while a key PLA is more self-confident than ever, mounting the first serious inflation indicator in October rose at the fastest pace challenge to the naval dominance of the United States since the since the late ‘90s. But observers say firms must now end of the Cold War. “It will take time for Xi to take control of the raise wages so employees have more to spend, driving military,” says Huang Jing, an authority on the PLA at the National the economy and giving the corporate sector confi- University of Singapore. “Most of the senior generals were not dence to expand. appointed by Xi. Instead they were all appointed by his predeces- An increase in pay packets is even more crucial sors.” ahead of a sales tax rise next year to 8.0 percent from The rise of a nationalistic leader with military leanings comes 5.0 percent, a move aimed at shrinking Japan’s huge as the People’s Liberation Army, with 2.3 million men and women national debt, proportionately the worst among under arms, is the hard edge of a rising China. China’s annual mili- wealthy nations. The International Monetary Fund, tary spending is now second only to that of the US armed forces. among others, has welcomed Tokyo’s efforts to get its The PLA navy is projecting power further into the Pacific. Years of fiscal house in order, but the tax rise has stoked fears it buying, copying and sometimes stealing technology have helped will derail a recovery. The last sales tax rise, in 1997, the PLA narrow its capability gap with the United States and other foreshadowed the fall into deflation. rivals in Asia.

‘I’m worried about our future’ Beyond Borders And while the economy is moving to move in the Xi, as chairman of the Central Military Commission, is com- right direction, there is a growing disillusionment with mander-in-chief alongside his roles as party general secretary and the leadership. An unpopular state secrets bill, raw ten- president. He now oversees armed forces that are influencing sions with China and South Korea, and growing doubts events far beyond China’s borders. Fleets of Chinese warships about Tokyo’s print-and-spend economic policies are patrol disputed territories in Asian seas. On Dec 5, a Chinese war- beginning to test Abe’s popularity. “My husband’s salary ship forced a US guided missile cruiser, the USS Cowpens, to take has not changed in the past eight years and now rising evasive action in the South China Sea, the US Navy said. The inci- In this June 5, 1989 file photo, a Chinese man stands alone to block a line of tanks heading east on Beijing’s prices are affecting the family’s budget,” said 42-year- dent, in international waters, appeared to be an attempt to pre- Cangan Blvd in Tiananmen Square. — AP vent the US ship from observing sea trials of China’s new aircraft old Tokyo resident Yasuyo Sakata. “Abenomics is for oth- carrier, the Liaoning, naval experts said. became a senior political leader and an architect of the market Commission. Eight of 10 uniformed members of the council were er people. I haven’t felt any positive impact from it, and PLA fighters now scramble to guard the controversial air reforms that ignited China’s economic boom. That makes Xi a replaced. It isn’t clear if there is close patronage or loyalty between I’m worried about our future.” defense zone that Beijing imposed last month off its east coast. “princeling” of the leadership, and he rubbed shoulders with other Xi and his top commanders. But other , Chinese mili- Criticism like Sakata’s is a worry for Abe, whose place The Chinese navy also cruises the Indian Ocean, contributing to offspring of Communist China’s founding elite. tary analysts and foreign military attaches identify several gener- in the history books rests on him convincing ordinary international anti-piracy efforts, while PLA peacekeepers are on Throughout his career, Xi has appeared to march in step with als with whom Xi is on especially good terms. One is Central people that his much-lauded policies will help them, duty in Africa and the Middle East In hardened silos and on the PLA. In his first job after graduating from Tsinghua University, Military Commission member Zhang Youxia. Also close are two rather than just lift company profits and share prices. mobile transporters, the PLA’s Second Artillery Corps is moderniz- he was a key aide in the general office of the Central Military officers outside that top body: army General Yuan and air force For detractors such as Noriko Hama, economics profes- ing China’s modest but expanding armory of nuclear missiles, Commission, the top military council he now runs. Xi was secre- General Liu Yazhou. (The two Lius are not related). sor at Doshisha University in Kyoto, Abenomics is “a Chinese and foreign military analysts say. During Xi’s tenure, likely tary to Geng Biao, a defense minister and former military subordi- Like Xi, these officers are princelings. Zhang Youxia is the son of bunch of all the wrong ideas for all the wrong reasons”, to last another nine years, this force is expected to be bolstered nate of Xi’s father. He held no rank, but his duties were considered General Zhang Zongxun, a celebrated senior commander in PLA’s a money-printing exercise that will saddle Japan with with China’s first effective ballistic-missile nuclear submarines. If military service. “The military sees Xi as one of their own,” says a wars against the Japanese and the Nationalists. The elder Zhang more debt. Critics and advocates alike have warned PLA engineers can make them stealthy, these subs will be capable person with ties to the leadership. As he climbed the rungs of fought civil war battles with Xi’s father in north-western Shaanxi that promised economic reforms - including more flexi- of retaliating if China comes under nuclear attack, according to China’s provincial bureaucracy, Xi had a parallel career as a politi- Province, according to people familiar with both men’s family ble labour markets and free trade deals - are essential Chinese and foreign military assessments. cal commissar in local army headquarters, units of the PLA and background. People close to the military say Xi last year wanted to for the growth plan to work. “Progress on structural All this has been a dramatic change. In the late 1990s, visiting the People’s Armed Police, the party’s paramilitary internal securi- nominate Zhang, now head of the PLA’s General Armaments reforms has been disappointing,” Capital Economics foreign military officers scoffed at China’s poorly equipped army. ty force. Department, as one of the two vice chairmen of the CMC. Retired said.—AFP After more than three decades of soaring military spending, infu- He was careful to defer to important old soldiers. About 10 leaders Jiang and Hu vetoed the move, these people say. sions of foreign and domestic technology and improvements in years ago, when Xi was party chief in Zhejiang Province, a retired Liu Yuan and Liu Yazhou are engaged in what they have training, the PLA is transformed. “There is no question China’s vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, , described as an undeclared war by subversive foreign forces to power is growing,” says Li Nan, an analyst of the Chinese military at visited Zhejiang Province to celebrate his birthday. Xi, then provin- unseat the Chinese Communist Party. They have also warned of All articles appearing on these the United States Naval War College. “That is contributing to a cial party chief, broke with his official duties for several days to the danger that unchecked corruption poses to the party’s sur- pages are the personal opinion of higher level of confidence.” accompany the civil war veteran. “Zhang Zhen was very touched vival. Liu Yuan, 61, is the son of former president , once Reflecting the more complex military challenges China faces, with Xi’s respect for old cadres,” said the individual with leadership designated to succeed Mao before he was brutally purged in the the writers. Kuwait Times takes no Xi has moved to establish a national security commission, thought ties. “Those who came to offer their birthday felicitations all saw Xi and died in custody. The elder Liu was posthu- responsibility for views expressed to be modeled on the US National Security Council. No details next to Zhang. It was a plus for Xi.” Zhang Zhen’s own princeling mously rehabilitated after Mao’s death, clearing the way for his therein. Kuwait Times invites read- about the proposed new body have been released. Foreign diplo- son, general Zhang Haiyang, is now political commissar of the son’s life of privilege. mats believe it is aimed at tightening coordination between Second Artillery Force. In a late start to a military career, Liu Yuan joined the People’s ers to voice their opinions. Please China’s sprawling military, intelligence, diplomatic and internal As China has grown richer and better educated, the middle Armed Police as a political commissar at 41 before transferring to send submissions via email to: opin- security agencies. Xi is likely to head the new body, according to ranks of the PLA have filled with technically trained specialist offi- the army. He is now commissar of the PLA’s General Logistics [email protected] or via snail several people familiar with the move. cers. Along with that have come consistent if muted calls for China Department. Xi has publicly acknowledged his friendship with Liu Xi is keeping his generals close. The military’s top two com- to have a fully professional army: one loyal to the state rather than on a number of occasions. Liu Yuan was also close to the powerful mail to PO Box 1301 Safat, Kuwait. manders are almost always photographed at his elbow on his fre- the party, and free from the parallel supervision of political com- regional party chief Bo Xilai. Bo was sentenced to life imprison- The editor reserves the right to edit quent visits to exercises, frontline units and military schools: army missars who monitor the forces at virtually every level. Amid these ment in September for bribery, embezzlement and abuse of pow- any submission as necessary. General Fan Changlong and air force General Xu Qiliang. He has rumblings, the army remains deeply politicized, military analysts er. Liu first attracted wide attention for a rambling essay he wrote also been quick to begin putting his own men at the top of the say. The PLA has long-standing internal factions and loyalties as a preface for a friend’s book in 2010.—Reuters