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“The Proxy War Between Iran and Saudi Arabia: the Case of the Yemeni Civil War Sociologia e Políticas Publicas Departamento de História “The proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia: the case of the Yemeni Civil War " Maria Maddalena Settembrini Dissertação submetida como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estudos Internacionais Orientador: Doutora Giulia Daniele, Professora convidada ISCTE – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Setembro de 2019 2 Per i miei genitori e i loro sacrifici, per la mia orientatrice che mi ha guidato passo dopo passo con affettuosità e professionalità, per le persone che hanno sempre creduto in me, per mia nonna, mia insegnante di scuola e di vita. 3 RESUMO O entendimento convencional do termo Guerra Proxy ou Guerra por Proxy foi definido durante o período da Guerra Fria como um confronto entre duas grandes potências usando atores substitutos para evitar um confronto direto (Bar-Siman-Tov, 1984). Com foco na região do Oriente Médio, é amplamente reconhecido que o Irã e a Arábia Saudita estão envolvidos em uma animosidade de longo prazo que causa um desequilíbrio estratégico nas políticas regionais. A Revolução Iraniana de 1979 catapultou estes dois estados em uma rivalidade amarga. Com a queda de Saddam Hussein, o estabelecimento de um Iraque xiita e as Primaveras Árabes de 2011 aumentaram as tensões entre a Arábia Saudita e o Irã. Ambos os países não têm enfrentado militarmente, mas certamente dividiram a região em dois campos armados, com base em ideologias políticas e religiosas, buscando aliados regionais e continuando a exploração dos países mais fracos da região em uma série de guerras por procuração, os conflitos no Iraque, a guerra na Síria e o recente conflito iemenita. Esta tese vai analisar a atual rivalidade Arábia-iraniana e como isso afeta a guerra civil no Iémen. A relevância em analisar esse conflito deriva da situação de esquecimento em que se encontra no debate internacional, que já pode ser considerada a pior crise humanitária da última década. Palavras-chaves: Guerra por procuração; Irã; Arabia Saudita; Guerra civil no Iémen; MENA 4 ABSTRACT The conventional understanding of the term Proxy War or War by Proxy was defined during the Cold War period as a confrontation between two great powers using substitute actors to avoid a direct confrontation (Bar-Siman-Tov 1984). Focusing on the Middle East region, it is widely acknowledged that Iran and Saudi Arabia are involved in a long-term animosity that causes a strategic imbalance in regional policies. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 catapulted these two States into bitter rivalry. The fall of Saddam Hussein, the establishment of a Shiite Iraq and the Arab Springs of 2011, have increased the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both countries have not a direct military confront yet, but they have undoubtedly divided the region into two armed camps, based on political and religious ideologies, seeking regional allies and continuing the exploitation of the weakest countries in the region in a series of proxy wars, from the conflicts in Iraq to the war in Syria and the recent Yemeni conflict. This thesis will analyse the current Saudi-Iranian rivalry and how it affects the Civil War in Yemen. The relevance in analyzing this conflict derives from the situation of oblivion in which it finds itself in the international debate, which may already be considered the worst humanitarian crisis of the last decade. Keywords: Proxy war; Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemeni civil war, MENA 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... 3 RESUMO .................................................................................................................................. 4 ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................... 6 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 7 The research question and its relevance ..................................................................................... 8 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 9 1 - The concept of war by proxies: the “war on the cheap” ....................................................... 10 1.1 Proxy war- definition and theories in the literature ......................................................... 10 1.2 Causes, effects and new applications in the contemporary crisis ..................................... 14 1.3 The rise of proxies in the MENA region ......................................................................... 16 2- Focus on the historical rivalry between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia ......... 17 2.1 From Iran point of view .................................................................................................. 21 2.2 From Saudi Arabia point of view .................................................................................... 25 3- The specific case of the Yemeni civil war ............................................................................ 30 3.1 Conflict overview: a shuttering war ................................................................................. 30 3.2 The opposed coalitions .................................................................................................... 35 3.3 Saudi and Iran connection with Yemen ........................................................................... 41 4 – CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................. 49 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................. 55 6 Introduction The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s instability is not something new in the page of world history. Since the collapse of the Ottoman empire, the region has been involved in a continuous struggle for dominance and supremacy. Western colonial powers, starting with the Sykes-Picot agreement or also called Asia Minor agreement between the United Kingdom and France, divided the region in their mutually agreed spheres of influence. Many historians and diplomats accused this agreement to have designed borders without considering internal complicate religious differences and current tribal networks. The result was the creation of irregular States, impossible to rule with stability. These two Western powers, UK and France, created the humus determining difficult relations within the Arab-Muslim world and towards the Western World as well. However, as Steven Cook argued in his publication, the Sykes-Picot agreement cannot be blamed as the only “cause of the region's dysfunction”. 1 Among others, two major causes are required to be analysed, as the historical schism between Sunni and Shias that has been there since the 7th century and the external interventions stimulated in the post- first world war period nationalist fervors across the MENA countries. Although many factors and forces have played a role in contemporary Middle East and North Africa, this dissertation will mostly focus on the controversial effects of the ongoing antagonism between Saudi Arabia and Iran since it can be considered “the best framework for understanding the regional politics of the Middle East”2 in which the two countries have played preeminent roles. The control competition over the region has historic roots and goes back in time to the origin of Islam, but the contemporary hostility started 40 years ago with the Iranian revolution in 1979. At that time, Iran passed from being a Western and Saudi ally, with Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s monarchy, to an Islamic Republic lead by Ayatollah Khomeini. In the Iranian Marjah point of view, Riyadh was the worst enemy of the Islamic world, an USA’s agent that need to be destroyed. Iran never recognized the religious legitimacy of the Saudi Kingdom and its control over Islamic places of worship such as Mecca and Medina. In Khomeini words “Muslims should curse tyrants, including the Saudi royal family, these traitors to God’s great shrine, may God’s curse and that of his prophets and angels be upon them”.3 1 Cook, Leheta, Traub, Walt and Zenko (2019). Don’t Blame Sykes-Picot for the Middle East’s Mess. [online] Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/13/sykes-picot-isnt-whats-wrong-with-the- modern-middle-east-100-years/ [Accessed 5 July 2019]. 2 Gause III, G. (2014). Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle East Cold War. Brookings. 3 Farhang, M. (2016). It's complicated: Why Iran and Saudi Arabia don't get along. [online] Middle East Eye. Available at: https://www.middleeasteye.net/big-story/its-complicated-why-iran-and-saudi-arabia-dont-get- along [Accessed 5 July 2019]. 7 In more contemporary times, fofollowing the Arab Spring outcomes, the two sectarian states have started influencing the critical scenario that blew up in the near countries. Nowadays, Tehran and Riyad fight each other in a no-direct way by supporting or financing local realities in Syria, in Yemen, Lebanon but also in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria. In such a panorama, the use of war by proxies seems to be the only way for the Iranian Republic and the Saudi Kingdom to establish themselves as regional powers. The research
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