Israel and the Middle East News Update

Tuesday, May 21

Headlines:

• PM Dismisses General’s Claims that Annexation Would Endanger • Palestinian Authority to Boycott US-Bahrain Event • U.S.: History Will Judge PA Harshly for Passing Up Opportunity • Israel, Hamas Said to Agree to Six-Month Ceasefire in Gaza • Top Attorneys Launch Campaign to ‘Save the High Court’ • Netanyahu’s Lawyers Ask AG to Put Off Hearing for at Least One Year • Israel’s Economy Booms at Fastest Pace Since 2016

Commentary: • Times of Israel: “How Settler Leaders Worked to Reelect Netanyahu and What They Want in Return” − By Jacob Magid • Ha’aretz: “Trump’s Planning a Wedding in Bahrain. But He Forgot to Invite the Groom” − By Noa Landau

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Yehuda Greenfield-Gilat, Associate Editor

News Excerpts May 21, 2019

Times of Israel PM Dismisses Claims that Annexation Would Endanger Israel Prime Minister responded to former security senior security officials who reportedly warned yesterday against annexing parts of the West Bank. Dismissing the claims that such a move — pledged by the premier days before last month’s elections — would “endanger the citizens of Israel,” Netanyahu says that “regions in Judea and are not just a guarantee of Israel’s security — they are also our patrimony.” “The same ‘experts’ supported the Iran nuclear deal and warned that ‘Bibi is taking a wrong turn and ruining the alliance with America,'” he adds in a tweet. Earlier today, Public Security Minister of Netanyahu’s party said annexation was a “natural and moral” step, and Likud MK Sharren Haskel reportedly filed a bill proposing an annexation of the Jordan Valley.

BICOM Palestinian Authority to Boycott US-Bahrain Event The Palestinian Authority (PA) will not attend the US-led economic conference in Bahrain next month. The PA Social Development Minister, Ahmed Majdalani, who is also a member of the PLO’s executive committee, said: “There will be no Palestinian participation in the Manama workshop. Any Palestinian who would take part would be nothing but a collaborator for the Americans and Israel.” Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayeh yesterday criticised the workshop, saying: “The cabinet wasn’t consulted about the reported workshop, neither over the content, nor the outcome nor timing. Any solution to the conflict in Palestine must be political … and based on ending the occupation.” Palestinian businessman Bashar Masri also said he is rejecting the invitation. Saeb Erekat also criticised the US for its planned conference, saying that “attempts at promoting an economic normalisation of the Israeli occupation will be rejected.” See also, “Drop the cynicism. The Bahrain economic confab is a big step forward” (Times of Israel)

Jerusalem Post U.S.: History Will Judge PA Harshly for Passing Up Opportunity Jason Greenblatt, the US Special Representative for International Negotiations, expressed his frustration Monday from the Palestinian reaction to the economic workshop in Bahrain next month, in which the administration is set to reveal the financial part of its peace plan. “It’s difficult to understand why the Palestinian Authority would reject a workshop designed to discuss a vision with the potential to radically transform lives and put people on a path toward a brighter future,” he told The Post. “Palestinians deserve dignity, opportunity and a better way of life,” Greenblatt added. “Also, by encouraging Palestinians to reject the workshop, the PA is shamefully trying to block their path toward a better future. History will judge the Palestinian Authority harshly for passing up any opportunity that could give the Palestinians something so very different, and something so very positive, compared to what they have today.” See also, “US invites Israel to Bahrain confab on Palestinians” (Times of Israel)

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Times of Israel Israel, Hamas Said to Agree to Six-Month Ceasefire in Gaza Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement for a six-month ceasefire along the Gaza Strip’s border with Israel, Channel 12 news reported Monday. According to the report, the agreement includes a Hamas obligation to halt violent incidents along the border fence, maintaining a buffer zone 300 meters from the border; an end to the launching of incendiary balloons at Israeli communities and nighttime clashes between Gazans and security forces; and a stop to flotillas trying to break In return, Israel will once again allow fishing at up to 15 nautical miles off Gaza’s coast, enable cash-for-work programs, allow medicine and other civil aid to enter the Strip and and open negotiations on matters relating to electricity, crossings, healthcare and funds. through the maritime border between Gaza and Israel. See also, “HAMAS AND ISRAEL DENY REPORT OF SIX MONTH TRUCE” (Jerusalem Post)

Ma’ariv Top Attorneys Launch Campaign to ‘Save the High Court’ Dozens of top lawyers met last night in the offices of the Goldfarb-Seligman firm in Tel Aviv to express their protest and to coordinate their positions against the right wing parties’ intention to curtail judicial overview, to change the immunity law to exempt the prime minister from being prosecuted and to undermine the authority of the Supreme Court and its justices. Zvika Bar Natan, a partner at Goldfarb-Seligman and the person who called the meeting, said to his colleagues: “Today we are all here because we are united in the concrete sense of a danger to the rule of law and to Israel’s existence as a democratic and liberal country. We are all here because we feel a sense of urgency, and we feel that the rule of law is at the edge of an abyss. We realize that, as jurists, we have a greater duty to the rule of law.” Bar Natan thus sent a clear message to the politicians: “You will have to get past us, and you won’t get past us.” The lawyers said that they were planning to form an action committee against the proposed legislation. See also, “NETANYAHU-INSPIRED MK IMMUNITY BILL SUBMITTED TO ” (Jerusalem Post)

Ha’aretz PM’s Lawyers Ask AG to Put Off Hearing for at Least One Year Benjamin Netanyahu’s lawyers have asked Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit to put off the hearing in the three corruption cases against the prime minister for at least a year because of the huge amount of material to be read to prepare Netanyahu properly. Mendelblit, who returned Sunday from a trip to Japan, had asked the lawyers to hold the hearing by July 10, but is expected to agree to a hearing held by the end of September. Monday was the deadline Mendelblit had set for coordinating a date, but an attorney for Netanyahu, Amit Hadad, only collected the evidentiary material last week.

Bloomberg Israel’s Economy Booms at Fastest Pace Since 2016 Israel’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in three years, blowing by analyst forecasts and far exceeding the central bank view of the country’s potential growth. Gross domestic product rose 5.2% in the first quarter from the previous three months on an annualized basis, the Central Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

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Times of Israel – May 21, 2019 How Settler Leaders Worked to Reelect Netanyahu and What They Want in Return While they’ve sparred with him in the past, prominent West Bank mayors put aside differences to campaign door-to-door for PM’s Likud party days after his on-air annexation pledge By JACOB MAGID • The last time two of the most prominent settler leaders were invited to a meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office, they chose not to come. • It was late December, with election fever slowly kicking into gear; but not even a month had passed since a pair of West Bank terror shootings in which two soldiers and a pregnant woman’s baby were killed and nine others were injured. • Arguing that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was using the sit-down for a photo op with Israeli mayors beyond the Green Line, rather than addressing their demands for increased settlement construction and security reinforcements in response to Palestinian violence, Binyamin Regional Council chairman Yisrael Gantz and Samaria Regional Council chairman Yossi Dagan peeled away from their colleagues and stayed away. • Roughly three months later — and just two days before the April 9 vote — Gantz and Dagan were again invited to meet Netanyahu. But this time, not only would they heed the call, but the pair also showed up in Jerusalem bearing gifts. • During the meeting, the two settler leaders detailed their get out the vote strategy for the Likud party on election day. As part of a broader campaign called “Zazim Yemina” (Moving Right), each of them was assigned a city or region of the country where the percentage of potential right-wing voters was high, but the voter turnout in recent elections had been low. They, along with hundreds of activists from their municipalities, would go door-to-door on election day encouraging Israelis to vote. For part of the time, Gantz and Dagan would be joined by Likud ministers Ze’ev Elkin and , providing those who opened the door a not-so-subtle hint at who they should vote for, without explicitly calling on them to support Netanyahu’s party. • “The combination of a minister at your door and someone from Judea and Samaria telling you it’s very important for his future that you vote is very powerful,” said Gantz. • Explaining the decision to go door-to-door on behalf of someone they felt wasn’t taking the security of their residents seriously less than four months earlier, both Gantz and Dagan told that the ramifications of a Netanyahu defeat were too serious for petty politics. • “We could have very easily woken up to a reality of a left-wing government, which would have harmed the settlement movement,” Gantz said.

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• Dagan used rhetoric almost identical to Netanyahu’s in the days ahead of the election. “If in the last election, the media tried to convince everyone that the left would win, this time they tried to play it as if Netanyahu was going to win in a landslide,” the fiery settler leader explained. • “Thank God, the people are nationalist and we helped wake them up from the media-imposed stupor in the nick of time,” Dagan added, apparently concluding that this reporter had not been involved in the “left-wing plot.” • In the coastal southern city of Ashdod where Dagan canvassed along with 1,000 other volunteers from his municipality in the northern West Bank, 39,499 people voted for Likud — nearly 4,000 more than in the 2015 elections. • In the nearby town of Kiryat Gat where Gantz campaigned, 11,506 residents voted for Likud — nearly 2,000 more than in 2015. • “The prime minister called me in the middle of the day concerned about voter turnout. I told him Mr. Prime Minister, we’re currently in Ashdod with a thousand people, everyone here is supporting you. When you help the Shomron [Samaria, or northern West Bank], the Israeli public is with you,” Dagan recalled. • After a day full of campaigning, Gantz and Dagan headed to Tel Aviv for the Likud election party. Netanyahu embraced the settler leaders after the results came in, showing Likud and the right-wing bloc had won comfortably. • “Ah! Now here’s a Gantz that I’m happy to see,” the Binyamin Regional Council chairman quoted the prime minister as having said to him moments after defeating Blue and White head . We’ll scratch your back… • While both Gantz and Dagan said that their decision to get out the vote for Netanyahu had been made well before their meeting in the Prime Minister’s Office, it appears difficult to view the sit-down as disconnected from an interview the premier gave the evening before. • Netanyahu told Channel 12 news that he would apply Israeli sovereignty to West Bank settlements if reelected, the first time the prime minister had gone on record in support of annexation. • Gantz admitted to being rather surprised by the remarks and arrived at the meeting with Dagan and two other mayors from their more hawkish flank — Har Hebron Regional Council chairman Yochai Damri and -Hebron Local Council chairman Eliyahu Libman — hoping to get a better understanding of what Netanyahu had meant. • “When I pledged to apply sovereignty, it wasn’t just a slogan and I told this to Trump officials as well. I’m taking this very seriously,” Gantz recalled Netanyahu as having said. • Dagan said he asked the premier whether he was distinguishing between the so-called settlement blocs closer to the Green Line and the isolated communities deeper into the West Bank and Netanyahu told him definitely that he was not.

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• Asked whether he believed Netanyahu’s pre-election sovereignty pledge, Gantz hesitated. “No,” he said, before quickly clarifying. “It’s not really a question of whether I believe it or not.” • “I believe that he wants to enact sovereignty. The question is how much are you willing to commit suicide for it. When do you want enact sovereignty? In 20 years?” the Binyamin Regional Council chairman wondered aloud. • Asked if he felt the fate of the pre-election pledge would be different from some of the other promises that Netanyahu has made to settler leaders for extensive building and funds, which they have argued he has failed to deliver on, Dagan dodged. • The veteran mayor said, “I prefer to look forward and not back. When you have a prime minister who speaks about enacting sovereignty, we must support it.” • As for a time frame, the settler leaders said that Netanyahu avoided giving one. But Gantz said he wanted to avoid having to push the prime minister into making promises just two days before the election. “There’s no point. I just wanted to understand his approach,” said the Binyamin Regional Council chairman, whose municipality serves 49 communities in the central West Bank. • Dagan was more dogged, saying that he expected Netanyahu to start tackling the issue immediately upon the formation of his new government. • “And if that does not occur, we know how to fight,” he clarified, referencing the protests he’s held over the years outside the Prime Minister’s Residence, for which he has even managed to recruit ministers from Netanyahu’s own government. • What Netanyahu did specify, according to Gantz, was that he would legalize all settlements in the upcoming term — not terribly specific, but for the Binyamin Regional Council chairman where hundreds, if not thousands, of homes are built either on private Palestinian land or without the necessary permits, such a move would significantly reduce the burden on those residents who live in a state of unregulated limbo. The Trump in the room • What Dagan and Gantz admitted went less discussed in their meeting with Netanyahu was the Trump administration’s peace plan, which Washington says will be introducing after the Shavuot holiday in June. Predicting that the proposal would require some sort of limitation on the settlement movement, Dagan called on Netanyahu to reject the plan outright. • “I have supported [US President Donald] Trump… and was invited to his inauguration, but you’re allowed to say ‘no’ even to friends,” he said. “Trump will respect that answer more than [former president Barack] Obama would have.” Gantz said he was less worried about the plan, citing Netanyahu’s pre-election annexation pledge as the reason. • “If Netanyahu goes to Trump and says I’m going to enact sovereignty [on the settlements], Trump is not going to commit suicide… by then introducing a plan that the prime minister will fight against [with policies that prevent it from materializing,]” Gantz argued.

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Ha’aretz – May 21, 2019 Trump's Planning a Wedding in Bahrain. But He Forgot to Invite the Groom By Noa Landau • For the moment, the Peace to Prosperity conference that the Trump administration will host in Bahrain at the end of next month is looking like a festive wedding lacking a small but important detail: The presence of the intended partner in marriage. • Representatives of the Palestinian Authority are expected to continue to boycott the United States as an intermediary, so Palestinian businesspeople were invited in advance to represent the nation which the administration proposes to help. • Anyone who has kept track of the murky relations between the Palestinian Authority and the Trump administration to date are not surprised by the declarations of Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh that the PA will not cooperate with the eventthat is mean to symbolize the launching of the United States’ plan for Israeli-Palestinian peace. • “Any solution to the conflict in Palestine must be political ... and based on ending the occupation,” Shtayyeh said at a meeting of the Palestinian cabinet. “The current financial crisis is a result of a financial war waged against us and we will not succumb to blackmailing and extortion and will not trade our national rights for money.” • “The Palestinian leadership will not agree under any circumstances to a formula of improving the lives of Palestinian citizens under the Israeli occupation,” he said on Monday. • His deputy Nabil Abu Rudeineh added: “Any plan without a political horizon will not lead to peace. The Palestinians won’t agree to any proposal or plan that doesn’t guarantee the existence of a Palestinian state and East Jerusalem as its capital.” • The decision to launch President ’s peace deal with its economic phase is well suited to his business-oriented world view – which has been characteristic in the history of U.S. foreign relations: A lot of money can solve a lot of problems. • The U.S. didn’t invent this concept in connection to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Its roots in the region are very old. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself – who meanwhile is not participating in the workshop and is making do with sending Moshe Kahlon, Israel’s candidate for the Finance Ministry – has often said that he supports it. Among other things, in 2008 he declared that “We must weave an economic peace alongside a political process,” adding that “Economic development does not solve problems, it mitigates them and makes them more accessible for solutions.” • Today Netanyahu probably wouldn’t repeat the second sentence, just as he will no longer promote his old slogan: “Making a secure peace.” Today the entire objective of “economic peace” as far as Israel is concerned is to serve the policy of splitting, dissolving and causing despair to the Palestinians’ national aspirations.

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• In recent years, many studies have examined the liberal belief that economic prosperity reduces wars. The prevailing conclusion is that economic growth is likely to help reduce violence, but it will not eliminate it and won’t necessarily lead to peace. As far as the Palestinians are concerned, studies have found, for example, that economic growth in the PA before the was at a relatively high rate of about 9 percent. • But even without this theoretical infrastructure, it’s enough to observe the tension in today’s changing international arena to realize that even economic abundance doesn’t necessary stop the national aspirations of groups and communities. • At this point, it seems that Trump and Netanyahu’s aggressive promotion of the “economic peace” theory, along with the intra-Palestinian rift, the reduction in U.S. financial assistance and Israel’s reluctance to transfer tax money is pushing the Palestinians into an entirely opposite process: greater reliance on Qatari money and more frequent declarations of economic severance from Israel. For instance, Shtayyeh said that as a first step, his government has frozen referrals for medical care in Israel and is trying to encourage local industrial and agricultural production. • The White House, on the other hand, is promising that it will not stop with the economic phase and the conference but will present a detailed political solution as well, probably even before Bahrain. Even in this case, it is hard to believe that the Palestinian leadership will abandon the cycle of boycotts. It would have to be an unprecedented and very enticing political proposal, which speaks not only to people’s pockets but also to their human aspiration for national self- determination.

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