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Climate Change and the Victoria Bushfire Threat: Update 2017

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Climate Change and the Victoria Bushfire Threat: Update 2017 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VICTORIA BUSHFIRE THREAT: UPDATE 2017 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Thank you for supporting the Climate Council. The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-1-925573-06-0 (print) 978-1-925573-07-7 (web) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2017 This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Professor Lesley Hughes Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this Climate Councillor license visit http://creativecommons.org.au. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Climate Change and the Victoria Bushfire Threat: Update 2017 by Professor Lesley Hughes and Dr David Alexander. The authors retain sole responsibility for the contents of this report. Dr David Alexander — Researcher, Image credit: Cover Photo “Burning Trees” by Flickr user Sascha Grant Climate Council licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. facebook.com/climatecouncil [email protected] twitter.com/climatecouncil climatecouncil.org.au CLIMATE COUNCIL I Contents Key Findings ....................................................................................................................................................................................ii Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................1 1. The Nature of Bushfires ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 2. What is the Link Between Bushfires and Climate Change? ..................................................................................... 6 3. Observations of Changing Bushfire Danger Weather in Victoria ........................................................................ 10 4. Future Projections of Fire Activity in Southeast Australia ...................................................................................... 13 5. Impacts of Bushfires in Victoria ......................................................................................................................................16 5.1 Health Impacts 17 5.2 Economic Costs 19 5.3 Environmental Impacts 23 5.3.1 Impact on water quality and quantity 23 5.3.2 Impacts on ecosystems 24 6. Implications of Increasing Fire Activity ....................................................................................................................... 26 7. Tackling Climate Change is Critical for Protecting Australians ...........................................................................30 References 32 Image credits 36 Fire Danger Rating 37 Preparing for a Bushfire 38 II CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VICTORIA BUSHFIRE THREAT: UPDATE 2017 Key Findings 1 2 3 Climate change is increasing Victoria is the state in Australia The economic cost of bushfires the risk of bushfires in Victoria that is most afected by in Victoria is projected to more and lengthening fire seasons. bushfires and is on the frontline than double by 2050. of increasing bushfire risk. › Extreme fire weather has › Victoria has sustained around increased since the 1970s in › The 2016–17 bushfire season in half of the Australian economic the east and south of Australia, Victoria is expected to be ‘above losses from bushfires despite including Victoria, with the fire normal’ for the majority of the comprising only 3% of the season length extending from state including the Melbourne continent. October to March. hinterland. › The annual economic cost › Climate change is now making › Severe long term rainfall of bushfires in Victoria is hot days hotter, and heatwaves deficits remain across much approximately $180 million. longer and more frequent. of western Victoria and West Drought conditions have and South Gippsland, which › By around the middle of the been increasing in Australia’s may increase fire risk. Very wet century these costs could more southeast. winter and spring conditions than double to $378 million. has led to high levels of grass These projections do not › Climate change is driving growth and above average fuel incorporate increased bushfire an increase in dangerous loads, particularly in the north incident rates and severity due fire weather, which in turn is of the state. to climate change, so the total increasing the frequency and cost is likely to be much higher. severity of bushfires. KEY FINDINGS III 4 5 6 Bushfires will continue to In the future, Victoria is Reducing emissions is critical adversely afect human and very likely to experience an to protecting Australians. environmental health. increased number of days with extreme fire danger. › Australia must cut its emissions › More than two thirds of known Communities, emergency rapidly and deeply to join global civilian bushfire fatalities in services and health services eforts to stabilise the world’s Australia have occurred in across Victoria must keep climate and to reduce the risk Victoria (more than 450 fatalities preparing. of even more extreme events, since the start of the 20th century). including bushfires. › Fire severity and intensity › Bushfire smoke can seriously is expected to increase › Australia’s very weak target of a afect human health because it substantially in coming decades 26-28% reduction in emissions contains respiratory irritants, as in Victoria. The fire season will by 2030 compared to 2005 well as inflammatory and cancer- continue to lengthen, further levels – and we are on track to causing chemicals. Elderly, infants reducing the opportunities for miss even this target – leaves and those with chronic heart or safe hazard reduction burning. Australia lagging well behind lung diseases are at higher risk. other OECD countries. › Melbourne’s rural-urban fringe › After the 2009 Black Saturday is among the most vulnerable bushfires, some members of in the world to bushfires. The the community developed population of Melbourne Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, is continuing to spread, major depressive episodes and encroaching into surrounding increased alcohol use. bushland, increasing risk to life and property from bushfires. › Fires can afect water infrastructure. The Black › An increased likelihood of Saturday fires afected about dangerous fire weather and 30% of catchments supplying a lengthening fire season Melbourne’s drinking water, with will strain Victoria’s existing estimated recovery costs totalling resources for fighting and more than $2 billion. managing fires. › Increasing fire frequency can cause rapid ecosystem change. After successive fires in 2003 and 2006–07, acacia shrublands replaced some mountain and alpine forests, putting at risk vertebrate species including the endangered Leadbeater’s possum. climatecouncil.org.au 1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VICTORIA BUSHFIRE THREAT: UPDATE 2017 Introduction Residents of Victoria have Australians have always lived with fire and experienced the serious its consequences, but climate change is consequences of bushfires. increasing fire danger weather and thus the Although Victoria comprises only risks that fires pose. These risks will continue 3% of Australia’s land mass, 67% of to increase in coming decades. all known civilian fatalities since the beginning of the 20th century, This report provides an update to the and around 50% of the economic previous Climate Council report on losses due to bushfires have bushfire risk and Victoria (https://www. occurred in the state. climatecouncil.org.au/be-prepared-climate- change-and-the-victorian-bushfire-threat). We first describe the background context of fire and its history in Victoria. We then outline the link between bushfires and climate change, before considering how bushfire danger weather is increasing in Victoria and what this means for the immediate future. We explore the impacts of fire on people, property, water supply and biodiversity, before considering the future influence of climate change on bushfires, and the implications for Victorian fire managers, planners and emergency services. CHAPTER 01 2 THE NATURE OF BUSHFIRES 1. The Nature of Bushfires Fire has been a feature of the Victoria has been afected by bushfires Australian environment for at least throughout its history. A study by Blanchi 65 million years (Cary et al. 2012). et al. (2014) reveals that there have been a Human management of fires also total of 825 known civilian and firefighter has a long history, starting with fire fatalities in Australia from 1901 to 2011. Of use by Indigenous Australians (‘fire- the known civilian deaths, more than two stick farming’) up to 60,000 years thirds have occurred in Victoria (454/674) ago. Typically, between 3 to 10% of (Blanchi et al. 2014). Extreme fires have also Australia’s land area burns every destroyed and damaged property more year (Ellis et al. 2004). frequently in Victoria than in any other state (Haynes et al. 2010). Significant bushfires in In Australia, the Forest Fire Danger Index Victoria’s recent history that have damaged (FFDI) is used to
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