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The Impact of Demographic Change on European Regions

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The Impact of Demographic Change on European Regions The impact of demographic change on European regions This report was written by Erik Gløersen, Marius Drăgulin, Sebastian Hans (Spatial Foresight GmbH), Jiannis Kaucic, Bernd Schuh, Florian Keringer (ÖIR) and Pietro Celotti (t33 Srl). It does not represent the official views of the Committee of the Regions. More information on the European Union and the Committee of the Regions is available online at http://www.europa.eu and http://www.cor.europa.eu respectively. Catalogue number: QG-01-16-274-EN-N ISBN: 978-92-895-0867-4 doi:10.2863/26932 © European Union, 2016 Partial reproduction is permitted, provided that the source is explicitly mentioned. Table of Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 5 1 Overview of demographic changes and projections .................................. 9 1.1 Overall demographic trends in Europe and its neighbourhood .............. 10 1.2 National and regional patterns of natural change ................................... 26 1.3 Gender imbalances .................................................................................. 32 1.4 Migratory patterns ................................................................................... 34 1.5 Projections ............................................................................................... 44 1.6 European Union initiatives addressing demographic change ................. 50 2 Impacts of demographic change on public expenditure: Challenges and policy responses .................................................................................... 55 2.1 Local and Regional government in the face of demographic change ..... 56 2.2 Health care, prevention and quality of life .............................................. 62 2.3 Education/Lifelong learning ................................................................... 72 2.4 Labour market policies ............................................................................ 80 3 Opportunities and perspectives for local economic development .......... 87 3.1 Silver economy ........................................................................................ 87 3.2 Volunteering ............................................................................................ 93 3.3 Residential economy ............................................................................... 99 3.4 Remittances ........................................................................................... 110 3.5 Self-perception and branding as instruments to influence demographic development .......................................................................................... 113 4 Recommendations ..................................................................................... 119 Figures Figure 1 Population change between 2000 and 2014 by NUTS 3 regions ............................................................................................... 12 Figure 2 Population change within a 50 km radius 1961-2011 .................... 14 Figure 3 Population change between 2004 and 2009 by NUTS 3 regions ............................................................................................... 15 Figure 4 Population change between 2009 and 2013 by NUTS 3 regions ............................................................................................... 16 Figure 5 Annual growth rate between 2000 and 2010in Europe and its neighbourhood .................................................................................. 18 Figure 6 Evolution of GDP discontinuities along borders in Europe and itsneighbourhood between 2000 and 2012................................. 19 Figure 7 Population change between 2000 and 2011by LAU2 units .............. 21 Figure 8 Evolution of urban-rural demographic polarisation between 2001 and 2011 ................................................................................... 23 Figure 9 Population change (2000-2012) in relation to total GDP (2000) by NUTS regions ................................................................... 23 Figure 10 Demographic trends in urban and rural parts of transnational mountain massifs ............................................................................... 25 Figure 11 Natural growth by NUTS2 regions ................................................... 27 Figure 12 Fertility rates by NUTS 2 regions (2013) ......................................... 28 Figure 13 Effect of rise of unemployment on birth rates .................................. 29 Figure 14 Natural population change by NUTS 3 regions (2005-2009) ........... 30 Figure 15 Natural population change by NUTS 3 regions (2009-2013) ........... 31 Figure 16 Women to men ratio in the age group 25-39 year by NUTS 3 regions (2014) ................................................................................... 33 Figure 17 Migratory balance by NUTS 2 regions ............................................. 36 Figure 18 Migratory population growth by NUTS 3 regions (2005- 2009) ................................................................................................. 37 Figure 19 Migratory population growth by NUTS 3 regions (2009- 2013) ................................................................................................. 38 Figure 20 Emigration and immigration in Europe, 2009 and 2010 .................. 40 Figure 21 Total number of asylum applications in EU28 Member States between January 2012 and November 2015 ..................................... 42 Figure 22 Main irregular entry points in the EU (2010-2015) .......................... 42 Figure 23 Number of asylum applications per inhabitant between January 2012 and November 2015 ................................................... 43 Figure 24 Old-Age Dependency Ratio, 2005, DEMIFER Scenarios 2050 ...... 46 Figure 25 Projected annual population change between 2014 and 2040 based on the 2013 version of Eurostat’s baseline scenario ............... 48 Figure 26 Projected annual population change between 2040 and 2060 based on the 2013 version of Eurostat’s baseline scenario ............... 49 Figure 27 Circular flow of incomes in the revised economic base theory ...... 100 Figure 28 Proportions of transfer income in total household income in Finland, Norway and Sweden (2001) ......................................... 102 Figure 29 Tax sharing transfers to municipalities per capita in Austria, 2013 ................................................................................................. 103 Figure 30 Links between demographic trends, identity and economic development in so-called ‘Inner Peripheries’ ................................. 115 Figure 31 Work ability and its various components ....................................... 120 Tables Table 1 Examples of ETC programmes addressing demographic change ...... 52 Table 2 Division of responsibility for legislating, financing and delivering long-term care services for the elderly in EU countries ..................... 64 Table 3 Levels of school autonomy in primary and general (lower and upper) secondary education .......................... 75 Table 4 Division of responsibility for legislating, financing and delivering employment services for the elderly in EU countries ....... 81 Text Boxes Text Box 1 Demographic coaching in Thuringia, Germany .......................... 57 Text Box 2 Innovative tools to manage oversized public infrastructure in Slovenia ................................................................................... 61 Text Box 3 Telemedical services in Małopolska, Poland .............................. 67 Text Box 4 Active ageing as driver for social inclusion in Delfzijl, the Netherlands ............................................................................ 70 Text Box 5 Senior Plus: Keeping the elderly healthy and active, Austria-Czech Republic ............................................ 73 Text Box 6 Silver economy in the health sector – the case of medical startups, Italy ............................................... 88 Text Box 7 Ristijärvi Seniorpolis: turning ageing into an asset, Finland.......90 Text Box 8 Ageing together in large communities, Ireland ........................... 95 Text Box 9 Senior Mentor programme, Hungary .......................................... 97 Text Box 10 Retirement migration from other parts of Europe, Spain ......... 104 Text Box 11 Residential economy – Appenzell Ausserrhoden, Switzerland ............................................................................... 108 Text Box 12 Remittances as drivers of economic and social development, Romania ............................................................. 112 Text Box 13 Innovation circle –targeting youth to enhance attractiveness and improve long-term development perspectives .......................... 116 List of abbreviations AWG EPC Working Group on Ageing Populations and Sustainability BBSR Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung CAP Common Agricultural Policy CEEC Central and Eastern European Country CICOPA International Organisation of Industrial, Artisanal and Service Producers' Co-operatives EPC Economic Policy Committee ESIF European Structural and Investment Funds ESPON European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion EU27 European Union of 27 Member States, before the accession of Croatia in 2013 EU28
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