OHE Guide to Uk Health and Health Care Statistics

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

OHE Guide to Uk Health and Health Care Statistics OHE guidE tO uK HEaltH and HEaltH CarE StatiStiCS JULY 2011 BY EMMA HAWE, PETER YUEN AND LESLEY BAILLIE OHE Guide British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN-13: 978-1-899040-09-4 Acknowledgements - Office of Health Economics www.ohe.org All rights reserved. Unless where stated as information licensed to be reproduced by OHE belonging to a third party. No part of the OHE Guide to UK Health and Health Care Statistics may be reproduced, resold, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, scanning and recording for any purpose other than the purchaser’s personal use, without the written permission of the Office of Health Economics. Where we have identified any third party copyright material you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned. OHE uses its best endeavours to ensure that the contains fair and accurate representation or interpretation of the original material from which the OHE Guide is drawn, but OHE shall not, for any reason whatsoever, be responsible for any damage, loss, cost, claim or expense incurred by a user as a result of its use or interpretation of, or reliance upon, any material contained in the . Copyright 2011 Office of Health Economics (OHE). OHE Guide Contents List of tables and figures Introduction .................................................................................................. i 1 Population........................................................................................... 1 1.1 Population statistics ......................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Population estimates ....................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Population projections .................................................................... 5 Population Key sources and information .................................................. 9 1.2 Mortality statistics ............................................................................... 10 Mortality Key sources and information .................................................. 16 1.3 Life expectancy .................................................................................... 17 Life expectancy Key sources and information ......................................... 18 1.4 Morbidity ............................................................................................. 19 1.4.1 Primary and secondary care health information ........................... 19 1.4.2 Health surveys ............................................................................... 20 1.4.3 Healthy life expectancy ................................................................. 22 Morbidity Key sources and information ................................................. 24 1.5 Lifestyle factors .................................................................................... 25 Lifestyle factors Key sources and information ........................................ 29 2 Health care expenditure ......................................................................... 30 2.1 Total health care expenditure ............................................................. 30 2.1.1 Total health care expenditure in the UK ........................................ 30 2.1.2 International health care expenditure .......................................... 35 International Key sources and information ............................................ 38 2.2 NHS expenditure .................................................................................. 39 2.2.1 NHS structure ................................................................................ 39 2.2.2 Reporting NHS expenditure ........................................................... 42 2.2.3 NHS funding ................................................................................... 46 2.2.4 Components of NHS expenditure .................................................. 49 2.2.5 Cost of hospital services ................................................................ 52 2.2.6 ‘Payment by Results’ and national tariff (England) ........................ 54 2.2.7 NHS Reference Costs .................................................................... 54 OHE Guide 2.2.8 Healthcare Resource Groups (HRGs) ............................................. 55 2.2.9 Cost of the ‘Family Health Services’............................................... 60 NHS expenditure Key sources and information ...................................... 66 2.3 Private health care expenditure .......................................................... 67 Private health expenditure Key sources and information ....................... 70 3 Hospital activity and workforce ............................................................. 71 3.1 NHS hospital services statistics ........................................................... 71 3.1.1 Health services information collection .......................................... 71 3.2 NHS workforce statistics ...................................................................... 74 3.2.1 NHS workforce classification ......................................................... 74 3.2.2 HCHS medical and dental staff ...................................................... 76 3.2.3 HCHS non-medical staff ................................................................. 80 Hospital workforce Key sources and information ................................... 82 3.3 NHS Hospital and Community Health Services (HCHS) activity .......... 83 3.3.1 Hospital activity data ..................................................................... 84 3.3.2 Hospital admitted patient care (APC) patient-level information ... 85 3.3.3 Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) ................................................... 90 Hospital inpatient activity Key sources and information ........................ 91 3.3.4 NHS available and occupied hospital beds .................................... 92 Hospital beds data Key sources and information.................................... 95 3.3.5 Day cases ....................................................................................... 96 3.3.6 Outpatient attendances and other hospital activities ................... 96 Hospital outpatient and day cases Key sources and information ......... 100 3.3.7 Hospital waiting times ................................................................. 101 3.3.8 Outpatient waiting times ............................................................. 103 3.3.9 Inpatient waiting times ................................................................ 103 3.3.10 Total waiting times .................................................................... 104 Hospital waiting times Key sources and information ............................ 105 3.3.11 Community care ........................................................................ 106 Community care Key sources and information ..................................... 107 4 ‘Family Health Services’ activity and workforce .................................. 108 4.1 Family Health Services (FHS) statistics .............................................. 108 FHS Key sources and information ......................................................... 110 4.2 General Medical Services (GMS) ....................................................... 111 OHE Guide 4.2.1 GMS data sources ........................................................................ 113 4.2.2 GMS workforce statistics ............................................................. 115 4.2.3 The ‘new’ GMS contract .............................................................. 117 4.2.4 Quality and Outcomes Framework .............................................. 119 4.2.5 Estimating the number of GP consultations ................................ 120 GMS Key sources and information ........................................................ 122 4.3 General Pharmaceutical Services (GPS) ............................................ 123 4.3.1 The Drug Tariff ............................................................................. 123 4.3.2 The NHS medicines bill ................................................................ 124 4.3.3 Community pharmacy ................................................................. 127 4.3.4 Prescribing in the community ...................................................... 127 4.3.5 Prescription charges .................................................................... 130 4.4 Prescription statistics ........................................................................ 133 4.4.1 NHS Prescription Services system................................................ 133 4.4.2 Prescription Analysis and Cost Tabulation (PACT) ....................... 135 4.4.3 Prescription Cost Analysis (PCA) .................................................. 137 4.4.4 Branded and generic prescribing ................................................. 139 GPS Key sources and information ......................................................... 142 4.5 General Dental Services (GDS) .......................................................... 143 4.5.1 Dental and dentistry statistics ..................................................... 146 GDS Key sources and information......................................................... 149 4.6 General Ophthalmic Services (GOS) .................................................. 150 4.6.1 Ophthalmic
Recommended publications
  • Prime Ministers Challenge on Dementia 2020
    Prime Minister’s Challenge on Dementia 2020 Implementation Plan March 2016 You may re-use the text of this document (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ © Crown copyright Published to gov.uk, in PDF format only. www.gov.uk/dh Prime Minister’s Challenge on Dementia 2020 Implementation Plan Prepared by the Dementia Policy Team Contents 1 Contents 1. Foreword 3 2. Executive Summary 5 3. Introduction 8 Implementing the Prime Minister’s Challenge on Dementia 2020 8 Reviewing our progress 9 How we engaged on this plan 9 Engaging with people with dementia and carers 9 4. Measuring our progress 11 Metrics and Measurement 11 Public Health England Dementia Intelligence Network 11 NHS England CCG Improvement and Assessment Framework 12 Governance 13 Where we want to be by 2020 13 5. Delivery priorities by theme 16 a) Continuing the UK’s Global Leadership role 17 WHO Global Dementia Observatory 18 World Dementia Council (WDC) 18 New UK Dementia Envoy 18 A global Dementia Friendly Communities movement 18 Dementia Research Institute 19 International Dementia Research 19 Dementia Discovery Fund 19 Integrated development 20 European Union Joint Action on Dementia 20 International benchmarking on prevention, diagnosis, care and support 21 How will we know that we have made a difference? 21 2 Prime Minister’s Challenge on Dementia 2020 b) Risk Reduction 22 Progress since March 2015 23 Key Priorities
    [Show full text]
  • Cardiovascular Disease Prevention (Nice.Org.Uk)
    Cardiovascular disease prevention Public health guideline Published: 22 June 2010 www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ph25 © NICE 2021. All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights (https://www.nice.org.uk/terms-and-conditions#notice-of- rights). Cardiovascular disease prevention (PH25) Your responsibility The recommendations in this guideline represent the view of NICE, arrived at after careful consideration of the evidence available. When exercising their judgement, professionals and practitioners are expected to take this guideline fully into account, alongside the individual needs, preferences and values of their patients or the people using their service. It is not mandatory to apply the recommendations, and the guideline does not override the responsibility to make decisions appropriate to the circumstances of the individual, in consultation with them and their families and carers or guardian. Local commissioners and providers of healthcare have a responsibility to enable the guideline to be applied when individual professionals and people using services wish to use it. They should do so in the context of local and national priorities for funding and developing services, and in light of their duties to have due regard to the need to eliminate unlawful discrimination, to advance equality of opportunity and to reduce health inequalities. Nothing in this guideline should be interpreted in a way that would be inconsistent with complying with those duties. Commissioners and providers have a responsibility to promote an environmentally sustainable health and care system and should assess and reduce the environmental impact of implementing NICE recommendations wherever possible. © NICE 2021. All rights reserved. Subject to Notice of rights (https://www.nice.org.uk/terms-and- Page 2 of conditions#notice-of-rights).
    [Show full text]
  • The Four Health Systems of the United Kingdom: How Do They Compare?
    The four health systems of the United Kingdom: how do they compare? Gwyn Bevan, Marina Karanikolos, Jo Exley, Ellen Nolte, Sheelah Connolly and Nicholas Mays Source report April 2014 About this research This report is the fourth in a series dating back to 1999 which looks at how the publicly financed health care systems in the four countries of the UK have fared before and after devolution. The report was commissioned jointly by The Health Foundation and the Nuffield Trust. The research team was led by Nicholas Mays at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The research looks at how the four national health systems compare and how they have performed in terms of quality and productivity before and after devolution. The research also examines performance in North East England, which is acknowledged to be the region that is most comparable to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in terms of socioeconomic and other indicators. This report, along with an accompanying summary report, data appendices, digital outputs and a short report on the history of devolution (to be published later in 2014), are available to download free of charge at www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/compare-uk-health www.health.org.uk/compareUKhealth. Acknowledgements We are grateful: to government statisticians in the four countries for guidance on sources of data, highlighting problems of comparability and for checking the data we have used; for comments on the draft report from anonymous referees and from Vernon Bogdanor, Alec Morton and Laura Schang; and for guidance on national clinical audits from Nick Black and on nursing data from Jim Buchan.
    [Show full text]
  • DEMENTIA HEALTH NEEDS ASSESSMENT for DEVON September 2014
    DEMENTIA HEALTH NEEDS ASSESSMENT FOR DEVON September 2014 Contents Acknowledgments 3 1 Introduction 4 2 Background 4 3 Dementia and Risk Factors 5 4 Devon Summary 7 Demographics Updated Dementia Strategy for Devon 2013 to 2015 Devon Achievements so far 5 Dementia Characteristics 10 Types and Severity 6 Early Onset Dementia in Devon 12 7 Incidence and Prevalence of late onset Dementia in Devon 14 8 Relevant groups 17 Ethnic minorities, Down’s syndrome, LGBT 9 Projecting Future Need in Devon 20 10 Prescribing trends nationally and locally 23 11 Dementia in Primary Care 24 12 Dementia in Secondary care 27 13 Dementia and End of life care 31 14 Dementia and Social Services available in Devon 32 15 Views of local carer representatives and stakeholders 38 16 Discussions and considerations 44 17 Recommendations 45 Appendices 46 Summary of NICE guidelines / national dementia Strategies Literature review methodology Supplement of Dementia Evidence Review on services in Primary care, Secondary care, End of life care and Social care 2 Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Older People’s Mental Health Working Group and Devon Dementia Partnership Group who took part in the consultative meeting and getting local patients and carers to participate in a survey to enrich this Health Needs Assessment. Dr Nick Cartmell, previously Chair to the Older People’s Mental Health Working Group and Jenny Richards, Dementia Commissioning Manager for reviewing earlier stages of this report and providing information on dementia services locally. The Public Health Directorate; Steve Brown, Assistant Director of Public Health, Public Health Consultants Tina Henry and Mike Wade and Simon Chant, Public Health Intelligence Lead for their support and guidance.
    [Show full text]
  • Woodfuel Resource in Britain Appendices
    WOODFUEL RESOURCE IN BRITAIN Part 2: APPENDICES H. McKay September 2003 1 WOODFUEL RESOURCE IN BRITAIN 1 2 3 4 5 6 A Bijlsma , G Bull , R Coppock , R Duckworth , L Halsall , J B Hudson , R J 7 8 9 10 11 12 Hudson , D Johnson , B Jones , M Lightfoot , E Mackie , A Mason , R 13 14 15 16 17 Matthews , H McKay , N Purdy , M Sendros , S Smith Research Contractors: Forestry Commission and Forestry Contracting Association 1 GIS Data Analyst, Forest Enterprise, (now Forestry Group), Forestry Commission 2 Woodland Surveys Officer, Forest Research, Forestry Commission 3 Systems Manager, Forest Enterprise; now on secondment to the Scottish Forestry Cluster 4 Consultant, Mathematical modelling and software engineer, Duckworth Consultants Ltd. 5 Systems Manager, Forest Enterprise, (now Forestry Group), Forestry Commission 6 Former Chief Executive and Research & Development Team Leader for the Forestry Contracting Association; now Hudson Consulting Ltd - Wood fuel and forestry consultants 7 Projects Manager, Research & Development Department, Forestry Contracting Association 8 Analyst/Programmer, Forest Research, Forestry Commission 9 Head of Technical Development Branch, Forest Research, Forestry Commission 10 Consultant software engineer, Environ – IT Ltd 11 Researcher, Research & Development Department, Forestry Contracting Association 12 Software Development Consultant 13 Research Programme Leader, Forest Research, Forestry Commission 14 Principal Advisor, Policy and Practice Division, (now Forestry Group), Forestry Commission 15 Marketing Officer, Forest Enterprise 16 Researcher, Research & Development Department, Forestry Contracting Association 17 Head of Woodland Surveys, Forest Research, Forestry Commission 2 Appendices Appendix 1 Successful Bioenergy Capital Grant Scheme projects Appendix 2 Principal producers and users Appendix 3 Development of allometric relationships for principal tree components in British forest stands Appendix 4 Development of models of tree size distributions Appendix 5 Data and parameters in BSORT model.
    [Show full text]
  • New Build Homes, Flood Resilience and Environmental Justice – Current and Future Trends Under Climate Change Across England and Wales
    New build homes, flood resilience and environmental justice – current and future trends under climate change across England and Wales Viktor Rözer and Swenja Surminski November 2020 Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 381 ISSN 2515-5709 (Online) Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 353 ISSN 2515-5717 (Online) The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2008 to advance public and private action on climate change through innovative, rigorous research. The Centre is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council. Its third phase started in October 2018 with seven projects: 1. Low-carbon, climate-resilient cities 2. Sustainable infrastructure finance 3. Low-carbon industrial strategies in challenging contexts 4. Integrating climate and development policies for ‘climate compatible development’ 5. Competitiveness in the low-carbon economy 6. Incentives for behaviour change 7. Climate information for adaptation More information about CCCEP is available at www.cccep.ac.uk The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment was established by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2008 to bring together international expertise on economics, finance, geography, the environment, international development and political economy to create a world-leading centre for policy-relevant research and training. The Institute is funded by the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment and a number of other sources. It has 11 broad research areas: 1. Climate change adaptation and resilience 2.
    [Show full text]
  • The Public Health System in England: a Scoping Study
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Edinburgh Research Explorer The Public Health System in England: a Scoping Study David J Hunter Linda Marks Katherine Smith Centre for Public Policy and Health November 2007 School for Health Contents 1. Introduction ___________________________________________________________ 1 Part 1: The State of the Public Health System in England: its evolution between 1974 and 2004 ________________________________________________________ 4 2. Background ___________________________________________________________ 4 3. The Nature of the Public Health System____________________________________ 5 3.1 Whole systems approach______________________________________________________ 5 3.2 Approaches to defining public health systems______________________________________ 8 4. Public Health After 1974: the End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End? ___ 17 4.1 What is public health? _______________________________________________________ 21 4.2 Who does public health? _____________________________________________________ 25 4.3 The emergence of the ‘new’ public health ________________________________________ 27 4.4 Local government and public health ____________________________________________ 36 4.5 Non- governmental organisations and public health ________________________________ 38 4.6 Health protection ___________________________________________________________ 39 4.7 Other developments _________________________________________________________ 40 4.8 How far have
    [Show full text]
  • Mental Health Statistics for England: Prevalence, Services and Funding
    BRIEFING PAPER Number 6988, 23 January 2020 Mental health statistics By Carl Baker for England: prevalence, services and funding Contents: 1. How widespread are mental health problems? 2. People in contact with NHS mental health services 3. IAPT: talking therapies for depression and anxiety 4. Other waiting times 5. Funding for mental health services www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Mental health statistics for England: prevalence, services and funding Contents Summary 3 1. How widespread are mental health problems? 4 1.1 Depression, anxiety and other common mental disorders 4 1.2 Post-traumatic stress disorder 8 1.3 Bipolar disorder 8 1.4 Psychotic disorder 9 1.5 Suicidal thoughts and self-harm 9 1.6 Mental health and physical health 11 1.7 Children and young people’s mental health 11 2. People in contact with NHS mental health services 12 2.1 Age and gender 12 2.2 Ethnicity 13 2.3 Variation between local authority areas 13 3. IAPT: talking therapies for depression and anxiety 15 3.1 National data on talking therapies 15 3.2 Age, gender, ethnicity and other characteristics 16 3.3 Waiting times: local data 20 3.4 IAPT outcomes: local data 23 3.5 Other local IAPT data 25 4. Other waiting times 26 4.1 Early Intervention in Psychosis 26 4.2 Children and young people’s eating disorder services 27 5. Funding for mental health services 28 Finding data on mental health in England • NHS England’s Mental Health Five Year Forward View Dashboard covers information on funding and service activity, both nationally and locally.
    [Show full text]
  • Our History: 40 Years of Alzheimer's Society
    Our history: 40 years of Alzheimer’s Society years 402019 In 2019 Alzheimer’s Society will celebrate 40 years of improving the lives of people affected by dementia, through delivering care, campaigning for a fairer society and driving groundbreaking research. We will use this opportunity to reflect on how far we have come and the changes we have made, whilst recognising there is still much to do until we have a world without dementia. As we look back on 40 years of achievements, we will also highlight how those achievements have laid the foundations for our current strategy, The New Deal on Dementia, and how they complement the three pillars of the strategy. The new The new The new deal on deal on deal on Support Society Research Fundraising 1979 A radio broadcast by Professor Davison on his research into Alzheimer’s disease prompted Cora Phillips, a former carer, to contact him to set up a charity.1 Professor Davison put Cora in touch with Professor Gordon Wilcock who had contacted him about the same suggestion. From then a small group of passionate and determined people who shared an ambition to make life better for carers of people living with dementia united to formed the ‘Alzheimer’s Disease Society’.2 The first Steering Committee took place on 6 November with official charity status commencing on 19 December 1979.3 Meanwhile, Morella Fisher, an ex-carer was interviewed in ‘The Observer’ and her article on 2 December entitled ‘The Sad Quiet Epidemic’ resulted in several hundred letters including one from Cora Phillips inviting her to join the Steering Committee.
    [Show full text]
  • Health Equity in England : the Marmot Review 10 Years On
    HEALTH EQUITY IN ENGLAND: THE MARMOT REVIEW 10 YEARS ON HEALTH EQUITY IN ENGLAND: THE MARMOT REVIEW 10 YEARS ON HEALTH EQUITY IN ENGLAND: THE MARMOT REVIEW 10 YEARS ON 1 Note from the Chair AUTHORS Report writing team: Michael Marmot, Jessica Allen, Tammy Boyce, Peter Goldblatt, Joana Morrison. The Marmot Review team was led by Michael Marmot and Jessica Allen and consisted of Jessica Allen, Matilda Allen, Peter Goldblatt, Tammy Boyce, Antiopi Ntouva, Joana Morrison, Felicity Porritt. Peter Goldblatt, Tammy Boyce and Joana Morrison coordinated production and analysis of tables and charts. Team support: Luke Beswick, Darryl Bourke, Kit Codling, Patricia Hallam, Alice Munro. The work of the Review was informed and guided by the Advisory Group and the Health Foundation. Suggested citation: Michael Marmot, Jessica Allen, Tammy Boyce, Peter Goldblatt, Joana Morrison (2020) Health equity in England: The Marmot Review 10 years on. London: Institute of Health Equity HEALTH FOUNDATION The Health Foundation supported this work and provided insight and advice. IHE would like to thank in particular: Jennifer Dixon, Jo Bibby, Jenny Cockin, Tim Elwell Sutton, Grace Everest, David Finch Adam Tinson, Rita Ranmal. AUTHORS’ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are indebted to the Advisory Group that informed the review: Torsten Bell, David Buck, Sally Burlington, Jabeer Butt, Jo Casebourne, Adam Coutts, Naomi Eisenstadt, Joanne Roney, Frank Soodeen, Alice Wiseman. We are also grateful for advice and insight from the Collaboration for Health and Wellbeing. We are grateful for advice and input from Nicky Hawkins, Frameworks Institute; Angela Donkin, NFER; and Tom McBride, Early Intervention Foundation for comments on drafts.
    [Show full text]
  • Dementia, Equity and Rights
    Dementia Equity and Rights Contents Contributors 1 Foreword 3 Executive summary 4 Overarching themes 5 Introduction 7 Oldest people with dementia 9 Young onset dementia 13 Dementia and disabilities 16 Mental health and dementia 22 Dementia and black and minority ethnic communities 26 Women with dementia 33 Socio-economic status 41 Sexual orientation and gender reassignment 45 Links, resources, and further information 49 References 51 We would like to thank the following organisations for photographs supplied: Jewish Care (page 8); Age UK (page 10); CLS Group (page 12) Contributors Many people contributed to this report, either by supplying a case study, a photograph, or proof reading the document. We are grateful for their help, for without their contribution this unique piece of work would not be complete. The individual chapters were written by the following voluntary and community sector organisations. All the organisations, with exception of Joseph Rowntree Foundation and Young Dementia UK, are members of the Strategic Partners Programme which brings together expertise from the voluntary and community sector. The Programme has 22 programme members, six of which are consortia. Partners work together on key aspects of health, social care, and public health policy with system organisations - Department of Health (DH), Public Health England (PHE) and NHS England (NHSE) - on behalf of patients, service users and the wider public. The strategic partners work directly with policy makers and co-produce specifc projects. This publication is an example of that co-production. Age UK Age UK help people enjoy a better later life by providing life-enhancing services and vital support.
    [Show full text]
  • Universities of Leeds, Sheffield and York
    promoting access to White Rose research papers Universities of Leeds, Sheffield and York http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ This is an author produced version of a paper published in Population Studies. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/76868/ Paper: Norman, P, Rees, P and Wohland, P (2013) The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England. Population Studies: a journal of demography. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2013.810300 White Rose Research Online [email protected] Subnational fertility rates by ethnic group The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England Short title: Ethnic-group fertility rates To project the ethnic-group populations of local authorities in England to 2051, estimates of ethnic-specific fertility rates were needed. In the absence of ethnic information on birth records, we developed indirect estimation methods that use a combination of vital statistics, the census (both microdata and aggregate tables), and survey data (Labour Force Survey). We estimated age-specific and total fertility rates successively for five broad ethnic groups encompassed by all datasets, and for eight ethnic groups encompassed by the 1991 and 2001 Censuses for England. We then used census data to disaggregate the estimates to the sixteen ethnic groups required for the subnational projections and the Hadwiger function to estimate single-year-of-age estimates. We estimated the uncertainty around the fertility estimates and used a logistic model to project rates to 2021, after which we assumed rates would remain constant.
    [Show full text]