This publication was supported by the National Endowment for Democracy under a project coordinated by GLOBSEC, Bratislava-based think tank.

LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES

In preparing this review, online comments on social media and on comment sections on news portals were examined from approximately a week before to a week after the first round of parliamentary elections in . This study also incorporated news articles from a variety of outlets over the same time period but also extending farther back to capture relevant contextual information. Five particularly dubious portals, some of them arguably outright propaganda/disinformation outlets, deemed prominent, moreover, were ins- pected. Additional sources to those mentioned above were also consulted but less extensively.

Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic and the considerable fi- nancial difficulties that have ensued in its wake, the Lithuanian elections proceeded rather peacefully on the information front, with the – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD, Conservatives) taking the largest number of seats. The TS-LKD subsequently launched coalition negotiations with two liberal parties – the Liberal Movement and the Fre- edom Party, with both of these performing above the expectations set by pre-election opinion polling.

Narratives perpetuated by problematic sources continued to follow rather familiar lines of thought, geared towards portraying Lithuania as a country that is Russophobic and brainwashed by the West and/or corporate inte- LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 2

rests. Their purpose – to undermine the motion of drug and alcohol abuse to the legitimacy of the country’s democratic loss of cultural identity to the proliferati- system and the elections themselves. on of various “antitheses” to traditional Discussed in detail in the next section, culture like LGBTI rights. While these is- one Sputnik article1, in particular, featu- sues are not exactly new targets for the res a compilation of greatest hits and is various disinformation and propaganda emblematic of all the different core tal- narratives present in the public domain, king points typically employed. they gained newfound attention this election cycle on account of the Free- Beyond these central themes pinpoin- dom Party, which has been particularly ted in the Sputnik article, there are other vocal, among other items, in its advoca- issues to take note of in examining the cy of, for example, LGBTI rights6. These elections from a broader vantage point. issues, representing genuine societal This includes, for example, the matter questions in need of broader discussi- of electoral turnout. It is an unfortunate on and resolution, are often exploited fact that despite some improvements, by problematic groups to galvanize the voter turnout remains woefully low in public, typically through hyperbolised Lithuania, with 47% of eligible voters depictions. Perceptions of the LGBTI casting ballots in the first round of the community and its rights are illustra- elections and second round turnout tive in this regard, with a study from tumbling all the way down to 39% (the earlier this year finding that a sizeable most passive district posted just 29% segment of society (36%) feels that the turnout).2 This pattern could be tied LGBTI community poses a threat to to vastly negative views in society to- their identity and values.7 wards political parties3, with there being a strong sense that it does not matter It is particularly curious to note how the who is in power. The sentiment that political landscape in Lithuania appears “they are all thieves/incompetents any- to have changed rather suddenly this 4 way” is indeed rather prevalent. election cycle. The country has seen a The turnout angle also plays into other swath of veteran politicians from across “traditional” narratives like the notion the political spectrum fail in their bids that the country’s citizens have emigra- to be returned to parliament, including ted en masse, with those that remain former Prime Minister Kirkilas, incum- being either “indoctrinated” or simply bent Minister of Foreign Affairs Linas incompetent, not to mention being Linkevičius and dozens of others. It is oppressed by “leftist” elites who are notable though that many of the most selling out the country to figures like prominent figures not re-elected come George Soros.5 from parties that identify with the po- litical left. With the elections being nominally (and fully once/if coalition “Leftism” negotiations complete) won by parties identifying as right wing, in fact, the “left “Leftism” was perhaps the most pro- wing” finds itself in the opposition. minent storyline when it came to the elections, blamed for various perceived This is where the concept of “leftists”, wrongs in society, ranging from the pro- as presented by disinformation and LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 3

propaganda outlets, clashes with how edom Party being arguably more asser- the parties are arranged in reality, with tive in regards to some topics including there being very few parties that outri- LGBTI rights and the decriminalisation ght espouse solely left- or right-wing of light narcotic substances. ideological thought. The liberal parties The success of the two liberal parties (and to a lesser extent even the Conser- is indicative of the fact that disinfor- vatives) might be described as “leftists” mation and propaganda might not have by some of the more dubious commen- been able to adjust swiftly enough this tators. This approach, however, relies election cycle (plausible in light of the on merely cherry picking one aspect of fact that the usual suspects are like- their policies (primarily social and cul- ly currently focused on other matters tural policy). The majority of parties in including Khabarovsk, Belarus and Lithuania, nonetheless, operate on the COVID-19). While the propaganda and basis of hybrid models meaning that disinformation narratives8 eventually although they might be socially and/ primarily ramped up against “leftism” or morally conservative, they could be with the seeming intention of evoking fiscally liberal or vice versa. The parties a sense of dread among those opposed attracting the most support, meanwhi- to LGBTI rights and the legalisation of le, are rather centrist with some left- or cannabis, the strategy appears not to right-wing bent. Consequently, unsur- have been especially successful. Poli- prisingly, we find that the concept of tical parties that are either proponents “leftism” is rather used as an umbrella of LGBTI rights or not overly inclined term and rallying cry to evoke image- against, in fact, made significant gains ry of unbridled anarchy and hedonism in both rounds. than as a coherent argument. The new coalition, meanwhile, is taking over the reins of government in a chal- Conservative-Liberal coalition lenging climate, with a second wave of the pandemic stirring. This backdrop back for another crisis presents certain parallels to the last The government will be formed now by time the Conservatives formed a go- a coalition led by, following two terms vernment (one also previously suppor- in opposition, the Conservatives and ted by the liberals), back in 2008, ri- spearheaded by three female leaders. ght on the cusp of the global financial This includes Ingrida Šimonytė, who is crisis. During the election campaign, due to become the second female pri- there were indeed some political moves me minister of Lithuania and the first advanced to instil fear that a Conserva- since Kazimiera Prunskienė served as tive government would lead to a return prime minister following the country’s of austerity. Corresponding to memo- independence from the Soviet Union. ries of the 2008-2009 global financial Alongside the Conservatives, the coali- crisis, these spending cuts, if enacted, tion will include the Liberal Movement would presumably prove incredibly and the Freedom Party, two parties that painful and vastly unpopular across advocate for liberal values, with the Fre- the social spectrum. This talking point LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 4

especially made use of a comment from prioritization of tasks rather than the former Prime Minister , distribution of political positions. There who led the Conservative government are, nonetheless, challenges still yet to of 2008-2012, that budgeting decisions overcome. While the Homeland Union under the incumbent coalition and the has endured criticism from conservati- pandemic could lead to a “painful han- ve pundits and politicians for a suppo- gover” and the need to tighten belts sed overly liberal turn, the party’s lea- next year.9 nings, in fact, still tilt in a conservative direction with respect to its social and This jostling may, however, have had moral agenda. This orientation stands only a limited impact given that the in contrast to the liberal parties, mean- Conservatives still managed to obtain while, with the Freedom Party pledging 50 parliamentary seats of a 141 total up that it will push for the legalisation of for grabs, a solid performance in a coun- same-sex partnerships and the decrimi- try where political parties are generally nalisation of light narcotic substances unpopular. This general lack of politi- within 100 days of the start of term. cal party popularity in Lithuania might The parties also hold different econo- have, in fact, aided the Conservatives, a mic policy goals. While the Conserva- party that attracts a more dependable tives, for example, are wary of tax cuts supporter base than other groupings. (even if not vehemently opposed to the Though its support is perhaps confined idea), the liberals have foreclosed any to certain segments of the population, possibility of raising taxes and have with total voter turnout under 50%, the instead expressed potential interest in fact that they are high propensity voters tax relief. Despite a number of points of might have proven a crucial factor. contention, a previous episode of con- An alternative explanation making sense servative-liberal cooperation during the of the Homeland Union’s success links challenging 2008-2012 (parlia- it to the COVID-19 outbreak in Lithua- ment) term suggests that these issues nia. While the government’s approach could be surmounted though. Some towards the virus saw general approval, pundits, however, still question whether the situation began to severely deterio- this coalition might not have set itself rate before the election, reflecting incre- an excessively high bar to reach and asingly poorly on the parties in power. expectations to fulfil.10

In terms of the coalition’s prospects for As it relates to the current relatively being successful, both positive signs tame media landscape, with Sputnik and stumbling blocks abound. If loo- being the only outlet featuring disinfor- king to be an optimist, look no further mation that managed to (just barely) than the fact that the three women he- enter the top 50 most visited Lithua- adlining their respective parties appear nian domains in October this year, two to have a positive working relationship. factors are paramount.11 Firstly, the This partnership has already been evi- Lithuanian public sphere has been pre- denced in their quickly coming to terms occupied with two major issues this on numerous points of the coalition year, COVID-19 and events unfolding in agreement with an emphasis on the Belarus. Given the significance of these LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 5

two challenges to the Russian regime, an ever constant flow of texts brimming which is ordinarily otherwise a primary with Russian-propagated narratives. source of disinformation and propagan- Articles that provided coverage on the da in Lithuania12, considerable resour- Lithuanian Seimas elections were no ces and attention were likely siphoned exception. away from endeavours like those tar- A story published following the first geted towards influencing elections in round of elections that was authored foreign countries. At the same time, the by Jurgis Nevėžietis and titled The Vic- election results proved to be something tory of Rainbow Liberalism in the Electi- of a surprise, with the rapid shift in voter ons – why did it happen and what does it preferences perhaps rendering disrupti- mean? exemplifies the general strategy ve efforts as ineffective and resulting in pursued in these articles15. Though the misfires. Secondly, likely due to ongoing rather brief and readable text itself did counter-disinformation endeavours in not draw widespread attention – only Lithuania, including the work of digi- 20 Facebook interactions, 6 shares and tal “elves”, and/or a lack of a sufficient a possible reach of around 2,800 peo- campaign on the part of propaganda ple16 – it is notable for its use of the full sources, the Lithuanian media landsca- spectrum of propaganda clichés emplo- pe has been gradually heading on cour- yed in Lithuania and across the demo- se for improvement and maturity13. The cratic world. fact that engagement and readership of propaganda outlets, among the few that persist, is rather low is particularly pertinent14. That said, it could be argued Anti-Sovietism, Russophobia that disseminators and recipients of di- and pandering to a rotten West sinformation narratives and the content “In most key questions, both sides itself are simply isolated in certain so- maintain the same views that comprise cial media bubbles, some of which mi- the Lithuanian ‘establishment’ political ght be difficult to identify and access. consensus: anti-Sovietism, Russopho- Nevertheless, within more mainstream bia and pandering to the West.” Just information feeds, developments appe- this single quote alone encapsulates a ar to be somewhat positive. number of propaganda clichés:

First, “anti-Sovietism” is indicated as CASE STUDY: a flaw of establishment politics. Some studies show that there are differences Focusing on Sputnik within Lithuania on the perceptions of propaganda – history, the Soviet Union’s occupation that still foreign policy and influence political attitudes. This fact is reflective of social differentiation within society’s ills the population (the divide between the Sputnik currently remains the only winners and losers, for example, of in- news portal based in the Russian Fede- dependence)17. These surveys, however, ration to consistently report news in Li- also underscore the fact that the Soviet thuanian. The outlet’s reporting is often era is increasingly perceived in a negati- pro-Kremlin and its op-ed section hosts ve light by the country’s citizens. Accor- LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 6

ding to a representative public opinion When respondents are posed with the survey commissioned by the Eastern question of whether “Lithuanian fore- Europe Studies Centre in spring 2020, ign policy is too strict toward Russia”, around 20% of the Lithuanian populati- there has been a marked decline from on think that life was better during the 42% affirming this statement in 2016 to Soviet era. The number of those disa- only 32% in 2020. The number of those greeing with this sentiment, meanwhile, disagreeing that Lithuania’s approach has been gradually rising and currently is too stern, meanwhile, experienced a exceeds 50%. In the same study, it was rise from 24% in 2016 to 38% in 2020. found that 66% of respondents disa- Russia is indeed judged to be an unf- greed with Russian President Vladimir riendly state by the population (68% of Putin’s claim that the Soviet Union’s respondents believe so) according to downfall was the greatest geopolitical the EESC study.19 catastrophe of the 20th century. There were only 9% of respondents who agre- Another segment in the Sputnik text, ed with this statement.18 This example steering criticism in the direction of underlines the argument that so-called the West, purports: “While today, the 20 “anti-Sovietism” is not a policy impo- winning side with the TS-LKD at the sed by the Lithuanian establishment forefront supports Lithuania’s com- but rather a point of view that instead plete dissolution in the swamp of the finds considerable pre-existing public rotting Western world – through both support within the country. neoliberal economic policies and throu- gh cosmopolitism, LGBTI and so-called A more extensive analysis, in fact, re- same-sex marriage legalisation – the veals that the descriptions used by the LVŽS21 (and the powers that side with it, Sputnik author to describe Lithuanian for example Waldemar Tomaszewski’s politics are standard narratives used as Poles) are at least trying to retain some part of Kremlin propaganda. The author remnant of Lithuania”. This line of rea- makes parallels between Lithuanian soning meshes with prototypical Rus- “Russophobia” (the term being used to sian propaganda that depicts a collap- describe Lithuania’s strident position sing West that is seeking to dismantle towards the Kremlin) and pandering to nation states and destroy traditional va- the West (a phrase constantly used to lues. These clichés are also mirrored in characterize Lithuania’s relationship other leitmotifs presented by propagan- with the EU and NATO allies). This Rus- dists that portray a thriving Russia, glo- sian propaganda campaign appears rify the USSR era and present Moscow targeted towards igniting disputes in Li- as a defender of traditional values.22 thuanian society in the absence of a ge- neral public consensus of a Lithuanian Such claims are not novel and are often policy on Russia. A part of society still directed against countries that were sees Russia as a valuable trade partner formerly part of the USSR but have now and a country that Lithuania is too small charted a pro-Western course. Efforts to influence. Survey data, however, sho- to exploit a lingering societal nostalgia ws that the appeal of Russian foreign for the Soviet Union are especially targe- policy has been declining in Lithuania. ted to individuals who suffered from the LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 7

bloc’s downfall. These include people anyone claiming that the West is per- who fondly remember their youth or the fect, these assertions are not aimed at senior positions they held at the time. sparking constructive discussions on These arguments are paired with narra- challenges but rather in sowing doubts tives that portray Lithuania’s strident po- about the West’s core values like demo- sition on the Kremlin as “Russophobic”, cracy. This point is illustrated further ergo directed against Russia and the down in the Sputnik text. Russian nation. These claims, however, are unfounded. Senior Lithuanian offici- als, in fact, take care to emphasise that Capitalist oppression of Lithuania’s grievances and overall stan- minorities ce towards the Russian Federation are The Sputnik article also sought to rai- directed not against the Russian nation se doubts about the legitimacy of the or its citizens but rather its chief offici- elections and democratic processes in als and military officers that are respon- Lithuania more generally by drawing up sible for pursuing a foreign policy that clear social antagonisms and expres- generally finds unacceptable23. sing scepticism about the ability of ci- The overarching purpose of these sto- tizens to freely choose their representa- rylines is to create rifts within society tives in the elections. and to aggrieve subsets of the populati- The author, for example, questions the on by making them feel unrepresented state of Lithuanian independence and and/or excluded from decision making continues by heaping scorn on voters processes in their country (i.e. the no- too: “After all, a new generation has gro- tion that politicians dictate decisions wn up, not just in “independent Lithua- based on their personal preference re- nia”, but a generation that has grown up gardless of what society wants). These alongside all the modern brainwashing fissures are subsequently exploited on technologies, a generation whose heal- social media during elections. A posi- thier representatives usually emigrate, tive development can be noted on this while the rest, those who don’t turn to point though, namely that very few Li- alcoholism and turn to depravity, usu- thuanian politicians are, in fact, deplo- ally are also assimilated in the urbanite ying these specific divisions as a part of environment of Vilnius, Kaunas or Klai- their political agenda. pėda.” This single sentence contains four well-trodden assertions that could The prevalent use of a “rotten West” be labelled as manipulation. narrative, in which Lithuania will soon dissolve, is probably not surprising to Firstly, Lithuania has, in fact, been an many analysts. Fierce criticism of the independent and democratic republic Western world and the clinical diagno- for more than thirty years now. This is sis of its death have become a frequent exemplified in the fact that the author talking point employed by politicians himself can write articles like the one that either hold radical political positi- being discussed here while Sputnik ons or openly engage in propaganda. can operate freely in the country. Such Although it would be difficult to find claims should be viewed as nothing LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 8

less than an attempt to deny Lithuania’s fact, celebrated 13 consecutive months achievements over the past thirty years of positive migration indicators.25 The of independence and evoke reservations “emigration problem” narrative will like- in the quality of Lithuanian democracy. ly remain part of public discussions in This line of reasoning, moreover, serves Lithuania for the foreseeable future. The as an extension of the idea that Lithua- only way to effectively combat this ar- nia is being dissolved by the West. gument lies in not only resolving social problems but also engaging in broader Then there is, secondly, the matter of discussions on the detrimental effects “brainwashing technologies.” This is an of emigration and the challenges it po- example of a frequently deployed tech- ses. Frank discussion can, in this case, nique that makes use of statements become a robust strategy for averting that are challenging to factually refu- hostile propaganda from exploiting this te. This claim is, however, not unique and other social problems. to Lithuania – the notion of societal “brainwashing”, with technologies even These themes are ultimately combined occasionally being employed for this with the author opining that “In other purpose is constantly suggested by va- words, an effectively organised and ide- rious propagandists around the world ologically processed minority is, in this and especially by conspiracy theorists. case, imposing itself on the majority.” That said, no precise arguments are This statement seeks to fully discredit ever put forward on how societies are democracy in Lithuania and the out- come of the parliamentary elections, exactly influenced and programmed. demonising them as the oppression of These assertions rather simply seek to an effective and indoctrinated minority dismiss those who disagree with the against the majority. author as being somehow influenced or programmed to think differently. This could indeed be an attempt to sow do- ubt in the results of the elections and Key findings from this case the free will of voters. study analysis There are not necessarily any novel nar- Thirdly, this sentence also includes the ratives put forward in the Sputnik article talking point of a Lithuania on the move as it relates to propaganda and disinfor- through emigration. This narrative, un- mation in Lithuania. The piece, however, fortunately, remains well alive in Lithu- stands out, among others, in its unique anian society and among certain po- posture of combining numerous propa- liticians. Lithuania has for a long time ganda messages on Lithuanian domes- struggled to cope with the challenge of tic and foreign policy into a single co- emigration owing to which the Europe- herent whole. an Union has even granted extra finan- cial tools to compensate for economic The article sought to raise doubts losses.24 There is no mention within among readers on the democratic cre- this argument of the latest develop- dentials of the Lithuanian elections and ment though, that of a reversing trend. the country’s political system and geo- At the beginning of 2020, Lithuania, in political leanings. It draws on broader LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 9

attempts to exploit Lithuanian history, da but we must also not forget to con- geopolitical choices and social pro- tinue developing an ever more robust blems to divide and misinform society. civic dialogue on key questions concer- Lithuania, nevertheless, can take pride ning Lithuanian foreign and domestic in its multiple civic and state initiatives policy. This is particularly the case when that seek to challenge fake news and engaging with sensitive topics that fake propaganda, decode propaganda mes- news disseminators seek to exploit. sages and present true accounts. Openness and extensive dialogue in- deed can instead serve as an effective These types of beneficial initiatives are vehicle for barring such articles from re- crucial in combating hostile propagan- aching the hearts and minds of people. LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 10

References 1 https://sputniknews.lt/columnists/20201018/13451932/Vaivorykstinio-liberaliz- mo-pergale-rinkimuose-kodel-ji-ivyko-ir-ka-ji-reiskia.html).

2 https://rinkimai.maps.lt/rinkimai2020/aktyvumas/

3 https://www.globsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Voices-of-Cen- tral-and-Eastern-Europe-read-version.pdf

4 A discussion of the public’s views on the parliament: https://www.bernardinai.lt/ko- del-as-nebalsuosiu-uz-hari-poteri/

5 Some examples: https://bukimevieningi.lt/vaidas-zemaitis-lietuvoje-rinkimus-laime- jo-sorosas-video/; https://lt.rubaltic.ru/politics/28102020-rinkimai-lietuvoje-konserva- toriai-ven-ia-pergal/; https://laisvaslaikrastis.lt/22511-2/

6 https://fnf-europe.org/2020/10/23/liberal-parties-in-lithuania-enter-second-ro- und-of-parliamentary-elections-on-a-stronger-note/

7 https://www.globsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Voices-of-Central-and-Eastern- Europe_read-version.pdf

8 Many of the narratives can be found in this comment section (including comments al- leging zoophilia, pedophilia, drug abuse, etc...). See: https://kauno.diena.lt/naujienos/ lietuva/politika/laisves-partija-zada-legalizuoti-kanapes-iteisinti-seksualiniu-mazu- mu-santykius-978391?komentarai

9 https://www.respublika.lt/lt/naujienos/lietuva/lietuvos_politika/akubilius_ir_dirzas__ neatskiriami_dalykai/

10 https://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu/lietuva/koalicijos-sutartyje-naujoji-valdzia-uz- sikele-auksta-kartele-bet-ar-uz-jos-neuzklius-56-1403512

11 https://rating.gemius.com/lt/tree/59

12 https://vilniusinstitute.lt/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/VIPA_Andriukaitis_2020_Iv4- 1%D0%B5.pdf

13 The assessmnet of the media in Lithuania by the Reporters Withouth Borders proves the quality of the media landscape, the country was ranked 28th in the 2020 World Press Freedom Index.

14 http://prismua.org/en/9065-2/

15 (https://sputniknews.lt/columnists/20201018/13451932/Vaivorykstinio-liberaliz- mo-pergale-rinkimuose-kodel-ji-ivyko-ir-ka-ji-reiskia.html)

16 According to data from CrowdTangle

17 Ainė Ramonaitė, “Kas ilgisi sovietmečio? Ekonominio statuso, socialinės aplinkos ir ver- tybinių nuostatų įtaka sovietinei – antisovietinei skirčiai Lietuvoje”, Sociologija. Mintis ir veiksmas, 2013/2 (33), p. 267

18 Linas Kojala, et. al., “Research on the assessment of the geopolitical situation and per- ception of threats”, 2020, EESC. https://www.eesc.lt/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ v02-web_Research-of-Perception-of-Threats_paper_A4.pdf LITHUANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2020: NOTABLE NARRATIVES 11

19 Linas Kojala, et. al., “Research on the assessment of the geopolitical situation and per- ception of threats”, 2020, EESC.

20 Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats party.

21 Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union party.

22 https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Pillars-of-Russia%E2%80%99s-Di- sinformation-and-Propaganda-Ecosystem_08-04-20.pdf

23 For example, in 2014 Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė (2009-2019) called Russia a terrorist state and Foreign Affairs Minister Linas Linkevičius (2012 – now) agreed with the usage of this term. https://lithuaniatribune.com/foreign-minister-linkevicius-says-li- thuanian-president-was-right-to-call-russia-a-terrorist-state/

24 Baltic News Service, EU to compensate Lithuania for emigration, 2020.

25 Baltic News Service, Lithuania records 13 straight months of positive migration, 2020.