Wind Force 10

WIND FORCE 10 A BLUEPRINT TO ACHIEVE 10% OF THE W O R L D’S ELECTRICITY FROM WIND POWER BY 2020 Wind power today is a success story supplying electricity to millions of people, employing tens of thousands of people and generating billions of dollars revenue. The pace of change and progress has been rapid for such a young industry. The benefits of wind power are compelling; environmental protection, economic growth job creation, diversity of supply, rapid deployment, technology transfer and innovation. The fuel is free, abundant and inexhaustible. Yet these benefits remain largely untapped; most energy decisions taken today overlook wind power, and it faces many obstacles and barriers. On climate change, an emerging international consensus states that business-as- usual is not an option, that the world must move into a clean energy economy. And some argue that tackling climate change is too daunting a challenge, that change is somehow too costly for economies and industry. In this battleground for solutions, wind power is a premier choice to help counter deadlock and delay – an affordable, feasible, mainstream global power force that is able to substitute for fossil fuels. We have produced this rep o r t in order to update our understanding of the contribution that wind power can make to the world – it is deliberately conserva t i v e . The rep o r t is a practical blueprint to show that wind power is capable of supplying 10% of the world’s electricity within two decades, even if we double our overall electricity use in that time. The collaboration of our organisations highlights the triple benefits that wind energy offers the world; for the environment, for industry and for development. Reports are a useful guide, but it is people who change the world by their actions. We encourage politicians and policymakers, global citizens, energy officials, companies, investors and other interested parties to support wind power by taking concrete decisions that will help ensure the 10% target is achieved, and to harness the true force of wind for our common good. Dr Klaus Rave Hans Bjerregaard Corin Millais President Chairman Head of Renewables Campaign European Wind Energy Association Forum for Energy and Development Greenpeace International October 1999 Global Status of Wind Power The report makes clear that the world’s wind Wind power is the most advanced and resources are unlikely to ever be a limiting factor commercially available of renewable energy in the utilisation of wind power for electricity technologies. A totally natural source it provides production. Even with wind power generating power which is both pollution-free and unlikely 10% of the world’s electricity by 2020, this still ever to run out. In recent years it has been the leaves most of the resource untapped. world’s fastest growing energy source. Development of offshore wind sites, expected to By the end of 1998, more than 10,000 MW of take off in Europe in the first years of the next electricity-generating wind turbines were century, contributes further potential for operating in almost fifty countries around the satisfying electricity demand. world. Over the past six years the average annual growth in sales of wind turbines has been 40%. In Europe, the combined wind resource both on land and out to sea will be enough to meet over The most successful markets for wind energy in 20% of the anticipated electricity demand in recent years have been in Europe, particularly 2020. Improved technology and cheaper Denmark, Germany and Spain. There has also foundations could increase this figure been an upsurge in the use of the technology in significantly, especially from offshore schemes. the United States, as well as in many developing countries, including India, China, and South The electricity grid is perfectly capable of America. Wind energy is successful in a diverse accepting large quantities of intermittent wind- range of economies and geographical terrain. powered electricity. In Denmark Government plans are for wind energy to account for 50% of Wind power is also among the cheapest of the electricity by 2030. Around the world, however, a renewable energy sources. At good wind sites it safe assumption is that 20% is an appropriate is already fully competitive with new traditional average figure for the potential penetration of fossil fuel and nuclear generation. Its cost also wind power into national grid systems. continues to fall as the technology improves and the use of individual sites is maximised. The IEA predicts that the world will double its electricity consumption by 2020 under business In recognition of its environmental advantages, as usual. Growing future demand for electricity many countries have supported wind energy means that wind power will need to generate development with government-backed incentives. about 2,500 - 3,000 Terawatt hours of electricity The aim of these has been to stimulate the per year if it is to meet 10% of the world’s market, reduce costs and compensate for the electricity demand within 20 years. unfair advantage currently held by conventional fuels, for example through state subsidies. A The 10% Target range of market stimulation mechanisms have On current expectations, wind power is expected been used in diffe r ent countries. to grow at an annual rate of 20% between 1998 and 2003, resulting in a total of 33,400 MW of Support for research and development initiatives installed capacity around the world by the end of and fair access for wind power generators to the that period. To meet the 10% target, 30% annual electricity grid are also important ingredients for growth from 2004 to 2010 is required, resulting in the technology’s continuing success. a total of 181,000 MW installed. Wind Resources and Electricity Demand From 2010 onwards, wind power annual growth A number of scientific assessments bro u g h t rates of 20% will result in a total of 1.2 million together in this re p o rt have shown that the MW being installed by the end of the year 2020. w o r l d ’s wind re s o u rces are extremely large and This will generate 2,966 Terawatt hours of well spread throughout six continents. The total electricity, equivalent to 10.85% of the expected available wind re s o u rce in the world today that is world consumption of electricity. By 2040, wind technically recoverable is 53,000 Terawatt hours power could be supplying more than 20% of the per year – about four times bigger than the world’s electricity. w o r l d ’s entire electricity consumption in 1998. The growth in wind power will be distributed to d a y ’ s 4.7 UScents/kWh to a level below 3 US around the world, but the fastest rate of cents/kWh by 2013 – only 14 years ahead. By development is expected to be in Europe, North 2020, the figure will have fallen to just 2.5 UScents America and China. per unit of electricity produced. This will make wind power competitive with all today’s new generating The parameters used as a basis for the analysis are: technologies, including large scale hydro. • Data from historical figures since 1990 and The employment implications of the 10% target information from the world’s leading companies are significant; more than 1.7 million jobs will be in the market today. created around the world in both manufacture and installation. • Exploitable wind potential and levels of electricity consumption in different regions of the The Environmental Benefits of the 10% target world, and conservative estimates of regional Annual savings of CO2 will be 69 million tonnes penetration limitations. in 2005, 267 million tonnes in 2010,and 1,780 million tonnes in 2020. • An analysis of “progress ratios” and improvements in the technology shows that the Between 1999 and 2010, there is a cumulative wind energy industry is capable of expanding at reduction of 1,120 million tonnes of CO2, and this fast rate. Wind turbines have been steadily between 2010 and 2020, a cumulative reduction increasing in both power output and efficiency, of 9,530 million tonnes of CO2. trends which are expected to continue. Policy Recommendations Investment, costs and employment In order to achieve 10% wind power the three The annual investment requirements of achieving organisations which have commissioned this 10% of the world’s electricity from wind energy report consider that a number of key political will be US$ 3billion in 1999, reaching a peak of actions are required. $78 billion in 2020. These figures are a fraction of overall global energy investments, which • Firstly, it is essential to establish firm targets averaged $170-200 billion per year in the 1990s. for wind power in every country around the world Of course this fraction will increase relatively, as where it has potential. wind power becomes a major element of the electricity sector. • Secondly, the inherent barriers and subsidies for other fuel sources which currently penalise The economics of wind power are compelling. renewable sources must be removed. The cost of building and operating wind turbines has already fallen dramatically. In Denmark, the • Thirdly, a variety of legally enforced cost of wind energy fell by two thirds between mechanisms must be implemented which secure 1981 and 1995. and accelerate the new market for wind energy. This study indicates that the costs of wind- po w e r ed electricity will further decrease from The basic analysis in this report was carried out by BTM penetration level can contribute to technological/economic Consult, an independent Danish consultancy specialising in progress, in turn justifying an expectation of further progress wind energy.

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