Present and Future Wind Energy in the U.S.
Jose Zayas Manager, Wind Energy Technology Dept. Sandia National Laboratories
www.sandia.gov/wind [email protected]
Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
History of Wind Energy pre - 1970
Prehistoric – Maritime (Greek, Viking) Medieval – Persian, Greek, England 20th Century – Great Plains First Energy Shortage -- 1974 History of Wind Energy post - 1970
U.S. DOE develops significant research program in response to the energy crisis of 1974 History of Wind Energy California Boom
Installed Capacity
1400
1200
1000 Livermore, CA -1982 800 CA
MW 600 rest of World
400
200
0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
AWEA, CEC, Renewable Energy World, Power Engineering, Earth Policy Institute, UC-Irvine History of Wind Energy California and World
Installed Capacity
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 MW
30000
CA 20000 rest of World
10000
0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
AWEA, CEC, Renewable Energy World, Power Engineering, Earth Policy Institute, UC-Irvine Current U.S. Installation
Wind Energy Today (end of 2007) • Total installed capacity: 16,879 MW (34 States) 5,244 MW installed 2007
45% increase from 2006 Accounted for 30% of new installed capacity in 2007 • Over 9 billion dollars invested in 2007 • Installed cost: ~5-8¢/kWh Installed capacity in the USA Cumulative end 2007: 16,879 MW 8,000 24,000
7,000 21,000
6,000 18,000
5,000 15,000
Almost 5.5 TW Available Resource 4,000 12,000 MW (Total U. S. Electric Capacity ≈ 1 TW in 2007) 3,000 9,000 Cumulative MW 2,000 6,000
1,000 3,000
0 0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Installed MW Forecast Cumulativ e Cumul. f orec ast The 10 Largest Markets by end of 2007
Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share % Germany 18,445 20,652 22,277 23.7% 24% USA 9,181 11,635 16,879 18.0% 42% Spain 10,027 11,614 14,714 15.7% 57% India 4,388 6,228 7,845 8.3% 66% P.R. China 1,264 2,588 5,875 6.2% 72% Denmark 3,087 3,101 3,088 3.3% 75% Italy 1,713 2,118 2,721 2.9% 78% France 775 1,585 2,471 2.6% 81% UK 1,336 1,967 2,394 2.5% 83% Portugal 1,087 1,716 2,150 2.3% 86% Total 51,303 63,203 80,415 Percent of World 86.4% 85.1% 85.5% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Germany On-Land Potential ≈ 100,000 MW USA on-Land Potential > 1,200,000 MW Wind Power’s Share of World Power Generation Generation Electricity gen. Electricity from all Wind Power's share Technology by Wind Power gen. sources of the world's electricity (BTM-C) (incl. Wind) IEA generation: Year: TWh TWh % 1996 12.23 13,613 0.09% 1997 15.39 13,949 0.11% 1998 21.25 14,340 0.15% 1999 23.18 14,741 0.16% 2000 37.30 15,153 0.25% 2001 50.27 15,577 0.32% 2002 64.81 16,233 0.40% 2003 82.24 16,671 0.49% 2004 96.50 17,408 0.55% 2005 120.72 17,982 0.67% 2006 152.35 18,576 0.82% 2007 194.16 19,189 1.01% 2012 (forecast) 605.4 22,571 2.68% 2017 (est.) 1573.8 26,549 5.93% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 ; World Figures: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 Phenomenal Growth Global Wind Industry
Cumulative Global Wind Power Development Actual 1990-2007 Forecast 2008-2012 Prediction 2013-2017 700,000 25% annual growth 600,000 rate, 1990-2007 (actual) 500,000
400,000 25% annual growth MW rate 2008-2012 (BTM) 300,000
200,000 19% annual growth rate 2013-2017 (BTM) 100,000
0 1990 2007 2012 2017
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Prediction Forecast Existing capacity 2007 Installed Energy Mix (U.S) Wind Basics Wind Power Basics
Air Density Rotor Area Wind Speed
1 3 Wind Power output is WindPower = ρ PVAC ∞ proportional to wind 2 speed cubed. (Drag) CP max ≅ 3.0
(Lift) CP max ≅ 59.0 The Betz Limit 1 VV= iw3
16⎛⎞ 1 3 PAV= ⎜⎟ρ w 27⎝⎠ 2 The Physics of the Power Curve Drives Technology Development
Facts about Wind Technology
Power in the wind is proportional to wind speed cubed At best, we can capture 59% (the Betz limit) “Rated Power” governs the size and cost of the entire turbine infrastructure Energy is power multiplied by the amount of time spent at that power level Capacity Factor is the ratio of total output to what would have been generated if always operating at Rated Power – Meaningful metric Wind shear puts higher winds at greater elevation Performance Enhancement Options
Power Resource
Pow er Curve Wind, Energy
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Power(kW) 1000 500 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Windspeed (m/s) Windspeed (m/s)
Turbine pow er Betz Pow er Rayleigh Probability Weibull Probability Larger Rotor Taller Tower Rotor costs increase Tower costs with diameter cubed, increase with height Rotor power grows with to the fourth power the diameter squared
We can only win this battle if we build rotors that are smarter and components that are lighter to beat the squared-cubed law. U.S. Wind Resource Maps
Wind Power Classification
Wind Resource Wind Power Wind Speeda Wind Speeda Power Potential Density at 50 m at 50 m at 50 m Class W/m2 m/s mph 14.3 - 15.7 3 Fair 300 - 400 6.4 - 7.0 15.7 - 16.8 4 Good 400 - 500 7.0 - 7.5 16.8 - 17.9 5 Excellent 500 - 600 7.5 - 8.0 17.9 - 19.7 6 Outstanding 600 - 800 8.0 - 8.8 19.7 - 24.8 7 Superb 800 - 1600 8.8 - 11.1 a Wind speeds are based on a Weibull k value of 2.0
Copyright © 2008 3TIER, Inc. All Rights Reserved. For permission to reproduce or distribute: [email protected] Power Curve and Wind Speed Distribution at Low Wind Site Current Technology and Energy Cost Wind Power
Small Wind (1-1000 kW) Utility-Scale Wind (1-5 MW) 1
2 American Wind Energy Association www.awea.org Current Wind Turbine Systems
Conventional Drive Train
Hub
Gear Box
Direct Drive System Pitch System Yaw System Generator
Tower Blade Typical Turbine Installation
Gamesa (Spain)
Vestas (Denmark)
GE (US)
Enercon (Germany) Wind Industry Trends & Costs Size $0.40 Cost per kWh 1.5-5.0 MW $0.30 Towers: 65-100 ~5-8 cents/kWh meters $0.20 Blades: 34-60 $0.10
meters $0.00 Weight: 150-500 1980 1984 1988 1991 1995 2000 2005 tons
Typical Wind Farm Components
Turbine Foundations Electrical collection system Power quality conditioning Substation SCADA Roads Maintenance facilities Offshore Wind Background
Shallow Transitional Deepwater Land-based Water Depth Floating Technology Technology Technology Technology
0m-30m
30m-60m
60m-900m Offshore Wind
Technical challenges, higher costs Close to load centers 1000 MW installed in Europe Limited shallow depths in U.S. Proposals in U.S. • Cape Cod (Cape Wind) • Long Island (LIPA) Understand External Conditions To Define the Design Conditions Problems and “Problems” Production Fluctuates
• Load fluctuates significantly • Even an all-fossil power system must ramp up and down to follow the load • Day-ahead wind forecasting • Wind is a “negative load” • Effects ramp rates
EIA: 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Bird Collisions & Mortality
Problem documented in Altamont Pass • One of nation’s largest concentrations of federally-protected raptors • Abundant prey base (migration path) • Heavy year-round raptor use Acoustic Emission -Noise
Mod 1 Boone, NC
AWEA 20% Wind Energy U.S. DOE Report, May 2008
Addresses Scalability 20% Wind Scenario
20% Wind Scenario would 305 GW require large ramp-up of wind
Installed Capacity as of January 2008 = 16,904 MW Scenario Installed Capacity vs. Current Installed Capacity 18
16 Capacity additions in 20% Scenario 14
12
10
8
6
Actual installations 4
2007: 5,329 MW Projected installations Annual Installed Capacity (GW) 2008: 7,500 MW* 2
0 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Annual GW Installed Source*: AWEA, 2008 CO2 Emissions from the Electricity Sector 4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
(million metric tons) (million metric 1,500
Emissions in the Electric Sector in the Emissions 1,000 No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 2 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissions CO 500 USCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050
0 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Challenges for Technology from the Analysis Results
Massive growth in installations • ~12GW in 2006 • over 300GW in 2030 Widely distributed across the nation • Many high wind sites • Substantial installation in moderate resource areas • Some offshore is needed Performance is critical • Capital cost • Capacity Factor • O&M Benefits of Wind Power
Economic Development • Lease payments, tax revenue
Cost Stability
Resource Diversity • Domestic, inexhaustible, reduced risk
Environmental
• no CO2, SO2, NOx, mercury no mining or drilling • • no waste • no water use
EIA: 20% Wind Energy by 2030 World-Wide Growth in Energy Demand Will Require all Available Energy Technology Options Integrated into a System
A complete portfolio of supply options: renewables, fossil, nuclear Highly efficient and environmentally benign technologies Fault-tolerant, self-healing infrastructures Enhance physical and cyber security and safety “…we could generate up to 20% of our electricity needs through wind…”
President George W. Bush - February 21, 2006
ThankThank You!!!You!!!