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Present and Future Wind Energy in the U.S

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Present and Future Wind Energy in the U.S Present and Future Wind Energy in the U.S. Jose Zayas Manager, Wind Energy Technology Dept. Sandia National Laboratories www.sandia.gov/wind [email protected] Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. History of Wind Energy pre - 1970 Prehistoric – Maritime (Greek, Viking) Medieval – Persian, Greek, England 20th Century – Great Plains First Energy Shortage -- 1974 History of Wind Energy post - 1970 U.S. DOE develops significant research program in response to the energy crisis of 1974 History of Wind Energy California Boom Installed Capacity 1400 1200 1000 Livermore, CA -1982 800 CA MW 600 rest of World 400 200 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 AWEA, CEC, Renewable Energy World, Power Engineering, Earth Policy Institute, UC-Irvine History of Wind Energy California and World Installed Capacity 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 MW 30000 CA 20000 rest of World 10000 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 AWEA, CEC, Renewable Energy World, Power Engineering, Earth Policy Institute, UC-Irvine Current U.S. Installation Wind Energy Today (end of 2007) • Total installed capacity: 16,879 MW (34 States) 5,244 MW installed 2007 45% increase from 2006 Accounted for 30% of new installed capacity in 2007 • Over 9 billion dollars invested in 2007 • Installed cost: ~5-8¢/kWh Installed capacity in the USA Cumulative end 2007: 16,879 MW 8,000 24,000 7,000 21,000 6,000 18,000 5,000 15,000 Almost 5.5 TW Available Resource 4,000 12,000 MW (Total U. S. Electric Capacity ≈ 1 TW in 2007) 3,000 9,000 Cumulative MW 2,000 6,000 1,000 3,000 0 0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Installed MW Forecast Cumulativ e Cumul. f orec ast The 10 Largest Markets by end of 2007 Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share % Germany 18,445 20,652 22,277 23.7% 24% USA 9,181 11,635 16,879 18.0% 42% Spain 10,027 11,614 14,714 15.7% 57% India 4,388 6,228 7,845 8.3% 66% P.R. China 1,264 2,588 5,875 6.2% 72% Denmark 3,087 3,101 3,088 3.3% 75% Italy 1,713 2,118 2,721 2.9% 78% France 775 1,585 2,471 2.6% 81% UK 1,336 1,967 2,394 2.5% 83% Portugal 1,087 1,716 2,150 2.3% 86% Total 51,303 63,203 80,415 Percent of World 86.4% 85.1% 85.5% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Germany On-Land Potential ≈ 100,000 MW USA on-Land Potential > 1,200,000 MW Wind Power’s Share of World Power Generation Generation Electricity gen. Electricity from all Wind Power's share Technology by Wind Power gen. sources of the world's electricity (BTM-C) (incl. Wind) IEA generation: Year: TWh TWh % 1996 12.23 13,613 0.09% 1997 15.39 13,949 0.11% 1998 21.25 14,340 0.15% 1999 23.18 14,741 0.16% 2000 37.30 15,153 0.25% 2001 50.27 15,577 0.32% 2002 64.81 16,233 0.40% 2003 82.24 16,671 0.49% 2004 96.50 17,408 0.55% 2005 120.72 17,982 0.67% 2006 152.35 18,576 0.82% 2007 194.16 19,189 1.01% 2012 (forecast) 605.4 22,571 2.68% 2017 (est.) 1573.8 26,549 5.93% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 ; World Figures: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 Phenomenal Growth Global Wind Industry Cumulative Global Wind Power Development Actual 1990-2007 Forecast 2008-2012 Prediction 2013-2017 700,000 25% annual growth 600,000 rate, 1990-2007 (actual) 500,000 400,000 25% annual growth MW rate 2008-2012 (BTM) 300,000 200,000 19% annual growth rate 2013-2017 (BTM) 100,000 0 1990 2007 2012 2017 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Prediction Forecast Existing capacity 2007 Installed Energy Mix (U.S) Wind Basics Wind Power Basics Air Density Rotor Area Wind Speed 1 3 Wind Power output is WindPower = ACρ P ∞ Vproportional to wind 2 speed cubed. (Drag) CP max ≅ 3.0 (Lift) CP max0≅ . 59 The Betz Limit 1 VV= iw3 16⎛⎞ 1 3 PAV= ⎜⎟ρ w 27⎝⎠ 2 The Physics of the Power Curve Drives Technology Development Facts about Wind Technology Power in the wind is proportional to wind speed cubed At best, we can capture 59% (the Betz limit) “Rated Power” governs the size and cost of the entire turbine infrastructure Energy is power multiplied by the amount of time spent at that power level Capacity Factor is the ratio of total output to what would have been generated if always operating at Rated Power – Meaningful metric Wind shear puts higher winds at greater elevation Performance Enhancement Options Power Resource Pow er Curve Wind, Energy 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Power (kW) 1000 500 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Windspeed (m/s) Windspeed (m/s) Turbine pow er Betz Pow er Rayleigh Probability Weibull Probability Larger Rotor Taller Tower Rotor costs increase Tower costs with diameter cubed, increase with height Rotor power grows with to the fourth power the diameter squared We can only win this battle if we build rotors that are smarter and components that are lighter to beat the squared-cubed law. U.S. Wind Resource Maps Wind Power Classification Wind Resource Wind Power Wind Speeda Wind Speeda Power Potential Density at 50 m at 50 m at 50 m Class W/m2 m/s mph 3 Fair 300 - 400 6.4 - 7.0 14.3 - 15.7 4 Good 400 - 500 7.0 - 7.5 15.7 - 16.8 5 Excellent 500 - 600 7.5 - 8.0 16.8 - 17.9 6 Outstanding 600 - 800 8.0 - 8.8 17.9 - 19.7 7 Superb 800 - 1600 8.8 - 11.1 19.7 - 24.8 a Wind speeds are based on a Weibull k value of 2.0 Copyright © 2008 3TIER, Inc. All Rights Reserved. For permission to reproduce or distribute: [email protected] Power Curve and Wind Speed Distribution at Low Wind Site Current Technology and Energy Cost Wind Power Small Wind (1-1000 kW) Utility-Scale Wind (1-5 MW) 1 2 American Wind Energy Association www.awea.org Current Wind Turbine Systems Conventional Drive Train Hub Gear Box Direct Drive System Pitch System Yaw System Generator Tower Blade Typical Turbine Installation Gamesa (Spain) Vestas (Denmark) GE (US) Enercon (Germany) Wind Industry Trends & Costs Size $0.40 Cost per kWh 1.5-5.0 MW $0.30 Towers: 65-100 ~5-8 cents/kWh meters $0.20 Blades: 34-60 $0.10 meters $0.00 Weight: 150-500 1980 1984 1988 1991 1995 2000 2005 tons Typical Wind Farm Components Turbine Foundations Electrical collection system Power quality conditioning Substation SCADA Roads Maintenance facilities Offshore Wind Background Shallow Transitional Deepwater Land-based Water Depth Floating Technology Technology Technology Technology 0m-30m 30m-60m 60m-900m Offshore Wind Technical challenges, higher costs Close to load centers 1000 MW installed in Europe Limited shallow depths in U.S. Proposals in U.S. • Cape Cod (Cape Wind) • Long Island (LIPA) Understand External Conditions To Define the Design Conditions Problems and “Problems” Production Fluctuates • Load fluctuates significantly • Even an all-fossil power system must ramp up and down to follow the load • Day-ahead wind forecasting • Wind is a “negative load” • Effects ramp rates EIA: 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Bird Collisions & Mortality Problem documented in Altamont Pass • One of nation’s largest concentrations of federally-protected raptors • Abundant prey base (migration path) • Heavy year-round raptor use Acoustic Emission -Noise Mod 1 Boone, NC AWEA 20% Wind Energy U.S. DOE Report, May 2008 Addresses Scalability 20% Wind Scenario 20% Wind Scenario would 305 GW require large ramp-up of wind Installed Capacity as of January 2008 = 16,904 MW Capacity additions in 20% ScenarioScenario Installed Capacity vs. Actual installations Current Installed Capacity 2007: 5,329 MW Source*: AWEA, 2008 2006 18 2008 Projected installations 2008: 7,500 MW* 16 2010 14 2012 12 Annual GW Installed 2014 10 2016 8 2018 6 4 2020 2 2022 Annual Installed Capacity (GW) 0 CO2 Emissions from the Electricity Sector 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 (million metric tons) 1,500 Emissions in the Electric Sector Emissions 1,000 No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 2 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissions CO 500 USCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050 0 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Challenges for Technology from the Analysis Results Massive growth in installations • ~12GW in 2006 • over 300GW in 2030 Widely distributed across the nation • Many high wind sites • Substantial installation in moderate resource areas • Some offshore is needed Performance is critical • Capital cost • Capacity Factor • O&M Benefits of Wind Power Economic Development • Lease payments, tax revenue Cost Stability Resource Diversity • Domestic, inexhaustible, reduced risk Environmental • no CO2, SO2, NOx, mercury no mining or drilling • • no waste • no water use EIA: 20% Wind Energy by 2030 World-Wide Growth in Energy Demand Will Require all Available Energy Technology Options Integrated into a System A complete portfolio of supply options: renewables, fossil, nuclear Highly efficient and environmentally benign technologies Fault-tolerant, self-healing infrastructures Enhance physical and cyber security and safety “…we could generate up to 20% of our electricity needs through wind…” President George W.
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