MONTHLY REVIEW > AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE NINTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 7vsx B. Mxrca:u., Chairman of the Board Cva:xs L 3Saaxt :s J. F. $a=xaocs ~a Federal Ruerne Agent AsairWnt Federal Rererre AYexu Serial VoL IV ~rvo, lfs} Minneapolis, Minnesota February 2$, 197 DISTR.IGT SUMMARY FAR THE MONTH January business in this district was in smaller volume than during the same month of last year . The total money value, as reflected by individual debits during January at representative homes in seventeen cities, was fi per cent less than lass year, all reporting cities showing declines, except Billings, Forgo, Sioux Falls, Winvna and La Crosse. The total physical volume, as reflected in car-loadings during the month of January, totaled 2 per cent less than during the same period in the preceding year, The reasons for this decline are revealed in part by the detailed classification of carloading fig- ures, there being substantial declines for grain and .~ .:a._` grain products, coke, loess[r ck and faxest products. J9~L .l..ia~~ :7 L~2~~~i~sas.Sz^L_~~7~,~_rs2s-l ~~2~-~ Shipments reported by manufacturers of flour, lin- Freight Carloadirsga of Miscellaneous Commodities in Car- seed products and lumber registered substantial de- load Lota and 11Rercharadise in Less-than-carload Lots in the clines in January, as compared with last year, Northwestern District. The curses in the upper portion of the chart have been adjusted to eliminate seasonal changes . During the The diagram in the lower part of the chart shows the rela- first two weeks in February, individ- tionship between the two curves in the upper part of the ual debits were 11 per cent smaller than in the shank to if[ustrate the exfent of forward Guying. corresponding period last year. All reporting cities showed declines except La Crosse, Sioux Falls, and The money value of business transacted in this Winona. district during January, as compared with Decem- ber, reflected by total debits at hanks in seventeen Wholesalers and retailers reported January sales representative cities, declined l6 per cent, which below a year ago. 'The percentages o¬ decline in is a decline of 2 per cent mare than is customarily wholesale trade ranged from 35 per cent in shoes expected at this time of year. Declines were shown tv 12 per cent in farm implements . The only group For all cities* except Winona. Decreases were shown showing an increase was groceries. Sales at retail in January as compared with December for ship- by department stores declined slightly. Sales of xnents by manufacturers of $our, lumber and lin- lumber by over 500 retail yards scattered seed products, in sales at wholesale of hardware, throughout the district declined 2~4 per cent in the shoes and dry goods and in sales at retail by de- number of board feet said. partment stores. Increases were shown in lumber cut by manufacturers, in sales at wholesale of farm The fact of an increase in the loadings of less- implements and in sales at retail by lumber yards than-carload lots of merchandise, while carload lots scattered throughout the district, measured in money decreased, indicates mare hand-to-mouth buying value. than last year, and reflects the cautious sentiment Northwestern banking conditions prevailing in general trade. Merchandise stocks at in the middle the end of February presented the contrast of growing ease of January were smaller than a year ago in the larger cities and of reduced deposits and far hardware, shoes and dry goods held by whvIe- salers ; and department stares reported a reduction slightly larger borrowings in the country sections. in inventories of 10 per cent. Stacks of lumber Prospective business activity, based upon build- held by retail yards remained practically unchanged, ing operations as reflected in the total valuation of while stocks increased for lumber held by manu- building permits granted at eighteen representative facturers and far groceries and #arm implements cities in this district, was 12 per cent smaller in held by wholesalers. January than a year ago. All the reporting cities IO AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS C~NDITI~NS February za, E9s~ ~" Average p¢r~entag¢ of SMl1T 3NfCCTCD WHEAT1925 . f~`F~ By Counties-V.S .RA, <ti~r r~ 4 " 4X >. ~ (p r,odEe) 3 " 24 registered declines, except Butte, Eau Claire, Iron- for wheat, corn, flax and rye. As compared with wood, Minneapolis, Rochester and 5ivux Falls. As the preceding month, the median prices of all compared with December, the total valuation for varieties computed in Lhis office declined, except the reporting cities registered a slight decline. for barley and rye. Total terminal stacks of the Huilding contracts awarded in this district during grains were less at the end of Jatkuary than a year January are reported as having the smallest total of ago. This was due entirely to declines shown in any ,January since 1919. Figures recently brought holdings of oats and barley, as the holdings of all down to date by this office covering houses and other grains increased. apartments available for rental in the larger cities, indicate apparently a stoppage of the trend toward Livestock receipts at terminais in this district dur- increased vacancies and lower rents, but it would be ing ,January exhibited gains for sleeeg, calves and unwise to draw conclusions frakxs cvknparisans with cattle, anal a decline for hogs. ks'_~a~pare~ ~nirl~ .-...._ last year of figures pertaining solely to the winter a year ago, the median prices for the varieties com- months. puted in this office exhibited a general downward trend, although one or two varieties were slightly Grain receipts at terminals in this district during higher. As compared with a month ago, the medi- January were one-third less than receipts of a year an prices far practically all varieties were higher. ago and about one-seventh less than in the preced- Feeder shipments as compared with a year ago were ing month of December. The only grain showing much greater for calves, hogs and sheep and some- increased terminal receipts, both as compared with what Iess for cattle. last month and a year ago, was corn. The median prices for the grains during January, as compared The smut situation menacing spring wheat con- with a year ago, exhibited mixed trends, the aggre- tinues serious, although some progress was made gate gains in price per bushel shown for durum, last year in its control. All seed wheat should be oats and barley being much mare than offset by chemically treated again this spring to assure free- the aggregate declines in price per bushel shown dom from the disease. In addition, country eIeva- sAAUr [NFECTEO WlIEAT ~sza r~ ~rxi ~i r -iii-i-"1 care ;r.a l~ rrrreiia~~}aid ,E+.2 mrcrw~llllll" Smut Infection in Spring Wheat (Including I]ururrs) in 1925 and 1925. Since the data for the two yeara are oat exactly comparable, ;he :yskems of shading in the two maps are different. NINTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT tvxs are strongly recommending testing of all seed Reports indicate a reduction in the rye area seeded wheat throughout the world, but with average or better than for germination an account of the large pro- average yields, the portion of the last crap production in 192 7 may make the total which was exposed to world supply equal to or greater than in the past year, moisture and frost. eo that rye prices are likely to show little change From the present. TOPICAL REVIEWS UnIesa livestock production is held at about the present level, allowing far increase in population from year to year, The commercial loans of twenty-four reporting present prices cannot be maintained. city mennher hanks---(the "all other" classification} With beef cattle marketings in 1927 probably materially continued less than in 1926, and the demand for beef maintained, to decline during the first half of Febru- prices of slaughter and feeder cattle are expected to aver- ary and have been reduced 8 per cent since the be- age spmewhat higher than in 192fi. C7n the whole, cattle ginning of the year. In each of the last few years, prices are expected to continua the upward price swing be- commercial loans at these banks have remained gun in 1922 . practically stationary during this season of the year. Hog producers have a favorable outlook this year. The Meanwhile, deposits at these hanks Dave not been market supply of hods probably will be little iF any larger than in 1926, and domestic demand is expected to continue reduced, and the funds released from commercial strong. Hog prices ate likely to be maintained near the loans have been placed in bonds and in loans se 1926 level. Prices now prevailing can be continued through cured by stocks and bonds. On February 16, de- 1928 only if formats hold dawn hog production tv the posits of these banks were about at the same level level of the past two years. as a year ago, while commercial Ioans were 12 per Sheep production is expected tv continue to increase cent smaller, loans secured by stocks and bonds moderately, and lamb supplies this year may be slightly larger than in 192fi. Strong consumptive demand for were 17 per cent larger and investments were 3 lamb is expected, Gut feeder demand may 6e leas active per cent larger. than last year in same sections . The wool market appears firm, with no marked price changes in sight. The condition of country hanks has apparently The dairy industry is on a stronger basis than a year shown no change in recent weeks.