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Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches Web Book of Regional Science Regional Research Institute 2020 Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches Helen Briassoulis University of the Aegean Follow this and additional works at: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/rri-web-book Recommended Citation Briassoulis, H. (2020). Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches. 2nd edn. Edited by Scott Loveridge and Randall Jackson. WVU Research Repository, 2020. This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the Regional Research Institute at The Research Repository @ WVU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Web Book of Regional Science by an authorized administrator of The Research Repository @ WVU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Web Book of Regional Science Sponsored by Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches By Helen Briassoulis Department of Geogaphy University of the Aegean Lesvos, Greece E-mail: [email protected] Published: 2000 Updated: October, 2019 Editors: Scott Loveridge Randall Jackson Professor, Extension Specialist Director, Regional Research Institute Michigan State University West Virginia University <This page blank> The Web Book of Regional Science is offered as a service to the regional research community in an effort to make a wide range of reference and instructional materials freely available online. Roughly three dozen books and monographs have been published as Web Books of Regional Science. These texts covering diverse subjects such as regional networks, land use, migration, and regional specialization, include descriptions of many of the basic concepts, analytical tools, and policy issues important to regional science. The Web Book was launched in 1999 by Scott Loveridge, who was then the director of the Regional Research Institute at West Virginia University. The director of the Institute, currently Randall Jackson, serves as the Series editor. When citing this book, please include the following: Briassoulis, H. (2020). Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches. 2nd edn. Edited by Scott Loveridge and Randall Jackson. WVU Research Repository, 2020. <This page blank> Contents Introduction 7 1.1. Overview of Issues Related to Land Use Change .....................7 1.2. The Purpose of the Analysis of Land Use Change .................... 13 1.3. Defining Land, Land Cover, Land Use, Land Cover Change and Land Use Change 15 1.3.1. Land.............................................. 15 1.3.2. Land Use and Land Cover.................................. 15 1.3.3. Land Use Change and Land Cover Change......................... 17 1.4. Land Use Change: Bio-Physical and Socio-Economic Drivers ............. 18 1.5. Land Use Change: Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts ........... 21 1.6. Land Use and Land Cover Classification Systems ..................... 24 Brief Historical Overview of Studies of Land Use Change 28 2.1. Introduction ............................................ 28 2.2. The Early Period – George Perkins Marsh and von Thunen .............. 29 2.3. The First Half of the 20th Century .............................. 29 2.4. The Other (Last) Half of the 20th Century ......................... 31 2.5. The New Millennium ...................................... 34 Theories of Land Use Change 36 3.1. Introduction ............................................ 36 3.2. Theories of Land Use Change – Classification ....................... 38 3.3. The Urban and Regional Economics Theorization Tradition .............. 43 3.3.1. Micro-Economic Theoretical Approaches .......................... 43 3.3.2. Macro-Economic Theoretical Approaches .......................... 48 3.3.3. Other Theoretical Approaches in Regional Science..................... 50 3.4. The Sociological (and Political Economy) Theorization Tradition ........... 52 3.4.1. Functionalist – Behaviorist Theories ............................. 53 3.4.2. Structuralist - Institutionalist Theories ........................... 57 3.4.3. Core-Periphery Theories ................................... 59 3.4.4. Unequal Exchange and Dependency Theories ....................... 60 3.4.5. Uneven Development – Capital Logic Theories ...................... 61 3.5. The Nature-Society Theorization Tradition ......................... 65 3.5.1. Humanities-Based Theories ................................. 65 3.5.2. Natural Sciences-Based Theories .............................. 68 3.5.3. Social Sciences-based theories ................................ 70 3.6. A Summary Evaluation of Theories of Land Use Change ................ 71 Models of Land Use Change 76 4.1. Introduction ............................................ 76 4.2. Models of Land Use Change – Classification ........................ 78 4.3. Statistical and Econometric Models .............................. 84 4.3.1. Statistical Models....................................... 84 4.3.2. Econometric Models (EMPIRIC).............................. 89 4.4. Spatial Interaction Models ................................... 92 4.5. Optimization Models ....................................... 100 4.5.1. Linear Programming Models................................. 101 4.5.2. Dynamic Programming Models............................... 107 4.5.3. Goal Programming, Hierarchical Programming, Linear and Quadratic Assignment Problem, Nonlinear Programming Models......................... 108 4.5.5. Multi-Objective/Multi-Criteria Decision Making models (MODM/MCDM)....... 119 4.6. Integrated Models ......................................... 123 4.6.1. Econometric-Type Integrated Models............................ 125 4.6.2. Gravity/Spatial Interaction Type Integrated Models.................... 127 5 4.6.3. Simulation Integrated Models................................ 132 4.6.4. Input-Output-Based Integrated Models........................... 173 4.7. Other Modeling Approaches .................................. 181 4.7.1. Natural-Sciences-Oriented Modeling Approaches ...................... 182 4.7.2. Markov Chain Modeling of Land Use Change ........................ 183 4.7.3. GIS-Based Modeling Approaches .............................. 186 4.8. A Summary Evaluation of Models of Land Use Change ................. 188 Summary and Future Research Directions 195 5.1. Theories and Models of Land Use Change: The Main Issues ............. 195 5.2. Future Research Directions: Theoretical, Methodological and Practical Needs .. 202 APPENDICES 204 APPENDIX 1.A.............................................. 204 APPENDIX 1.B (websites)........................................ 212 APPENDIX 5.A.............................................. 213 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES 214 ACRONYMS 216 GLOSSARY TERMS 218 REFERENCES 227 6 Introduction 1.1. Overview of Issues Related to Land Use Change Land is the stage on which all human activity is being conducted and the source of the materials needed for this conduct. Human use of land resources gives rise to “land use” which varies with the purposes it serves, whether they be food production, provision of shelter, recreation, extraction and processing of materials, and so on, as well as the bio-physical characteristics of land itself. Hence, land use is being shaped under the influence of two broad sets of forces – human needs and environmental features and processes. Neither one of these forces stays still; they are in a constant state of flux as change is the quintessence of life. Changes in the uses of land occurring at various spatial levels and within various time periods are the material expressions, among others, of environmental and human dynamics and of their interactions which are mediated by land. These changes have at times beneficial, at times detrimental impacts and effects, the latter being the chief causes of concern as they impinge variously on human well-being and welfare. Lay and scientific interest on land use change has a long history as there have been no instances in which people used land and its resources without causing any harm. Ancient writers, philosophers, scientists and the like but also lay people have left records of the unwanted consequences of changes in the uses of land in the form of pieces of literature, philosophy, science and folklore. The magnitude of land use change varies with the time period being examined as well as with the geographical area. Moreover, assessments of these changes depend on the source, the definitions of land use types, the spatial groupings, and the data sets used. A few indicative figures are given here to show salient changes in major uses of land. Table 1.1a contains data on global and regional land use and population change in the last 300 years for three main land use types. 7 Figures 1.1a, 1.1b, 1.1c, 1.1d, 1.1e, 1.1g depict these changes. 8 Table 1.1b presents the magnitude of change in each of the three major land use types distinguished in Table 1.1a as percent of total 1980 land area of each regional grouping and for the world as a whole. What is important to note in these Tables and the associated Figures is the variability of changes among the major land use types as well as the geographical variability of land use changes within and between land use types. Population change is used as a proxy measure of changes in the area of human settlements especially in urban areas. These latter changes are difficult to assess unambiguously as they are haunted by definitional and data problems (Douglas 1994). Changes in the uses of land which cause major concern are associated 9 with conversion to
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