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Computer Simulation of Historical Processes and Phenomena: the Russian Experience Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences 7 (2016 9) 1562-1571 ~ ~ ~ УДК 930.2:004.94 Computer Simulation of Historical Processes and Phenomena: the Russian Experience Leonid I. Borodkin* Lomonosov Moscow State University 1 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia Received 07.04.2016, received in revised form 29.05.2016, accepted 18.06.2016 Simulation of historical processes has specific features characterized by the fact that it does not aim at prediction of future development. Over 40 years of its development, it has been a long way for this area of historical computer science in Russia. In this paper we propose a typology of approaches to such simulation in economic and social history, provide a brief overview of the experience gained by the Russian historians in this developing area. Keywords: computer simulation, mathematical models, counterfactual simulation, synergetics, cliodynamics. DOI: 10.17516/1997-1370-2016-9-7-1562-1571. Research area: history. The problem of historical processes and reality that actually existed. It is a measuring phenomena simulation is of a strongly marked simulation based on the detection and analysis of specificity, characterized by the fact that statistical interactions in the system of indicators, simulation in this case (as compared to most characterizing the process or the object under social sciences) is not aimed at prediction of future the analysis. Here the matter is testing of the development. In our country the first works on hypotheses with the mathematical statistics computer simulation of historical processes were methods (these are mostly regression models). published in the second half of the 1970s and Computer models, the application of which caused heated debates (Guseinova, Kuzishchin, is not limited to source data processing, were Pavlovskii, Ustinov 1976; Koval’chenko 1978). also taken up. These models may be aimed at reconstruction of missing data on the dynamics Typology of computer models of the analysed process at a certain time interval; of historical processes analysis of the historical development alternatives; Three types of computer models can be theoretical study of possible behavior of the distinguished, the types being approved by the analysed phenomenon (or class of phenomena) on historians. Models of the first type describe the developed mathematical model. This model the reality under the analysis invariantly, the type can fit into simulation and analytical ones © Siberian Federal University. All rights reserved * Corresponding author E-mail address: [email protected] – 1562 – Leonid I. Borodkin. Computer Simulation of Historical Processes and Phenomena: the Russian Experience (Borodkin 1995). In the study of the past, when a) the states of the system at a given time a researcher deals with an already accomplished are uniquely identified through the system reality, simulation modeling has its own specifics parameters, input data and initial conditions. It is compared to the simulation of the subsequent a case of the so-called deterministic models; development of current reality. The experience b) the above ratios can help to identify gained makes it possible to distinguish two types (uniquely as well) only the probability distribution of simulation models: simulation-counterfactual for the system states, if the probability distributions and simulation-alternative models of historical for initial conditions, system parameters and processes. input data are specified. This model is termed as Computer models can be an effective tool probabilistic (stochastic). for studying alternative historical situations. 2. In the aspect of the method of the Simulation of one or another possible outcome mathematical model development and its further will result in a deeper understanding of application to study the system under the analysis the real course of historical development the models can be divided into analytical and and the objective meaning of the struggle simulation ones. of social forces for one or another variant (a) Analytical models imply that processes of of this development (Koval’chenko 2003). the system elements functioning are written in the In 1980s-1990s computer models helped to form of certain functional relations (equations). The get significant results in the study of social analytical model can be analyzed either analytically mobility in NEP period (Borodkin, Svishchev in order to obtain explicit dependencies (decisions) 1995), population and demographic processes for the dependent variables in their general form in the Paleolithic era (Nosevich 1994), etc. or numerically in order to obtain numerical results Publication of “Mathematical Modelling of using the computer specialized software packages the Historical Processes” collected works if it is impossible to solve these equations in a in 1996 (Matematicheskoe modelirovanie… general form. 1996) summed up the results of the first twenty b) Simulation models approximately years of the development of the methodology of reproduce the analysed process in its functioning computer simulation of historical processes in over time. They simulate elementary phenomena the USSR/Russia. The problem of correlation of of the process at preserving their logical structure a model of the analysed historical process, the and sequence of flow in time. Modelling algorithm theories that explain them and the empirical data makes it possible to obtain data on the states of available as well as the problem of verification the process at each subsequent step basing on the of models of different types were set up at this data containing information about the initial state stage. It was shown that mathematical models of the process (input data) and its parameters. of a deductive type can be classified on the basis As compared to analytical models, the main of various principles. In our previous works advantage of simulation models is a possibility (Borodkin 1990) we focused on two significant to simulate quite complex processes (with a large aspects of such classification. number of variables, nonlinear dependencies, 1. It is worth while starting with the ratios feedback loops) that are not subject to analytical expressing the dependence between the states research. and parameters of the simulated system. The It shoud be noted that in the 1990s there following possibilities arise here: appeared the historians’ work in which these – 1563 – Leonid I. Borodkin. Computer Simulation of Historical Processes and Phenomena: the Russian Experience types of models are “intertwoven” and go that there is no ambiguity as to the specifics, beyond the scope of this classification. Thus, limitations and application possibilities in the A.L. Ponomarev’s works (Ponomarev 1996) history of different models with a dominating demonstrate the possibilities of the “combined” deductive origin, as well as to their application simulation for solving the tasks of reconstructing while developing one or another mathematical the data which are missing in the source under apparatus. Identification of the ratio of simulation the analysis. The author refers to two different and analytical models, that are not related to subjects of the Byzantine history of the XI- reflective measurement ones, is of some interest. XIV centuries, analysed with one method, in The problems of the ratio of a model of the fact. The method applies the known Zipf’s law analysed historical process, the theories that (or, rather, its modification) to extrapolate the provide its explanation and the empirical data number of objects, the frequency of which in the available as well as the problems of verification of population under the research is equal to zero. models of different types seem to be essential in Another area of historical knowledge, where this context. We hope that consideration of these “mixed type” models are successfully applied, is issues will improve the adequacy of computer historical demography. V.L. Nosevich (Nosevich models used in historical research. 1996) considers the possibilities of modelling the Computer analytical models focused on the dynamics of historical (or, rather, prehistorical) research of unstable historical processes have communities evolving towards self-organization. been developed in the course of the last decade. This approach naturally leads the author to the discussion of the concepts of synergetics. His Nonlinear models computer model of the early Paleolithic society of historical processes dynamics simulates the process of a demographic A.Yu. Andreev’s, L.I. Borodkin’s and reproduction of the “economic groups” while I.M. Levandovskii’s, et al. works (Andreev, taking into account a cultural factor as well Borodkin, Levandovskii 1998) reflect a growing as random fluctuations in the state of natural interest of global science in nonlinear dynamics environment causing the intensification of models as an effective approach to the analysis migration processes. The simulation model of nonstationary, unstable processes. Such made it possible to “trace” the process of many concepts as “catastrophe theory”, “synergetics”, genealogical lines’ survival in the course of “bifurcation”, “chaos”, “strange attractors” are in tens of thousands of years, having identified the lexicon of different sciences, approaching the geographical areas in which certain populations brink of what has been defined as “cognizing the dominated. complexity” by I. Prigogine, a Nobel prize winner. Domestic quantitative history has some These
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