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Friant Water Update

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Friant Water Update FRIANT WATER UPDATE March 20, 2019 NOTE: Fifteen ALERT items, on pages 2 and 4-7. Data current as of March 18, 2019, unless otherwise noted. Meteorology, Climate, and Hydrology Recent Precipitation Events • There was no significant precipitation last week. Statewide snowpack did not change, staying at 153% of the April 1 average. Water Year 2019 Precipitation (Oct 2018 – Sep 2019) • Sacramento Valley: 131% of normal for this week (Link: HERE) • San Joaquin Valley: 129% of normal for this week (Link: HERE) • Tulare Lake Region: 135% of normal for this week (Link: HERE) WY2019 Snow Accumulation DWR automated snow sensors for snow water content (Link: HERE). • North Sierra: 151% of Apr 1 average; 152% of normal for this week • Central Sierra: 155% of Apr 1 average; 159% of normal for this week • South Sierra: 150% of Apr 1 average; 154% of normal for this week • Statewide: 153% of Apr 1 average; 156% of normal for this week Note that other snowpack estimates differ in terms of how current snowpack compares to normal for this date. A recent report from the University of Colorado estimated Sierra Nevada snowpack at 207% of normal for this date in the North Sierra, 187% in the Central Sierra, and 220% in the South Sierra (Link to detailed reports and data HERE) Looking forward: • The National Weather Service forecasts the arrival of a weak weather system bringing light precipitation on Tuesday evening, continuing through Wednesday night or early Thursday. Another storm system will bring light rain and snow on Friday and Saturday. Total precipitation will be up to 3 inches at high elevations, with greatest precipitation in the north. Snow levels will be above 7,000 feet on Tuesday and lowering to 5,000 – 6,000 feet Wednesday. See maps of the 6-day precipitation forecast (Link: HERE for Sacramento Basin and Eastside streams; HERE for San Joaquin Valley). • The medium-term precipitation forecast is above normal for both the 6- to 10-day and 8- to 14- day outlooks. (Link for 6- to 10-day: HERE; Link for 8- to 14-day: HERE). • DWR’s March 1 Water Supply Index Forecasts were released on March 9 (Link: HERE) o Sacramento River Unimpaired Runoff Forecast: 50% exceedance is 22.7 (127% of average) o Sacramento Valley Water Year Type Index (40-30-30): 50% exceedance is 9.6 (Wet) o San Joaquin Valley Water Year Type Index (60-20-20): 75% exceedance is 3.7 (Above Normal) o The 50% exceedance for the Sacramento and 75% exceedance for the San Joaquin are the values used to make the final water year determination under D-1641. • The March Bulletin 120 Forecasts were also released (Link for Sacramento Basin: HERE, Link for San Joaquin: HERE) • DWR commentary on both the Water Supply Index and Bulletin 120 Forecasts is available (Link: HERE). Other resources: • An authoritative California climate and meteorology blog (Link: HERE). • Interactive, real-time meteorology updates available at Ventusky (Link: HERE). • Weather updates from the National Weather Service Sacramento office are available (Link: HERE). NASA Airborne Snow Observatory • ALERT: The Airborne Snow Observatory has completed surveys during the past weekend for the San Joaquin Basin’s South Fork and Lower elevations; two military restricted areas of the Kings; and the Kaweah basin. Preliminary SWE results for flown basins will be transmitted beginning Wednesday, March 20 for use in upcoming DWR forecasts and to the USDA ARS for simulating runoff timing. Other basins will be flown as soon as weather permits. (Link: HERE) North of Delta Reservoirs / Temperature Operations • CVP reservoirs: are now above normal with a total storage of 6,260 TAF. Trinity, Shasta, and Folsom are at 110%, 111%, and 109% of their 15-year average storages for this week, respectively. Releases from Keswick Dam (below Shasta Lake) are at 20,800 cfs decreasing from 40,200 cfs last week. Releases from Nimbus Dam (below Folsom Reservoir) are at 5,300 cfs, decreasing from 15,500 cfs last week. Both Shasta and Folsom are still encroached into their flood pools and are making releases for flood control, though at reduced levels. • Reclamation’s daily CVP water supply report is available (Link: HERE). • Oroville: storage is at 2,672 TAF, which is 115% of its 15-year average. Releases from Oroville (below Thermalito) are at 6,000 cfs, decreasing from 7,000 cfs last week. This is for flood management purposes. Lake levels will be kept lower than normal this winter to provide operational flexibility and prevent use of the emergency spillway. • Storage levels for CVP North of Delta reservoirs by 182 TAF, and Oroville storage increased by 79 TAF. Looking forward: CVP Allocation and Operations • ALERT: Reclamation updated the allocation for CVP north-of-Delta contractors on March 15 (Link: HERE). The allocation is as follows: o Agricultural service contractors: 100% of their contract supply o M&I water service contractors (including American River and In-Delta): 100% of historic use Page 2 • Reclamation’s March operational forecasts are projecting that end of September storage in Shasta will be 3,194 TAF under a 90% exceedance forecast and 3,397 TAF under a 50% exceedance forecast, allowing for significant carryover into the following water year. • Discussions are ongoing between Reclamation and NMFS on development of a Temperature Management Plan for the upper Sacramento River. According to the Reclamation operations office, the level of snowpack in the watershed upstream of Shasta Reservoir is sufficiently high that they are comfortable that temperature operations on the upper Sacramento River will be effective this summer and fall. • Minutes from the February 21 American River Group meeting are available (Link: HERE). Reservoir Inflows • Inflows to North-of-Delta reservoirs will decrease throughout the week, with small spikes responding to forecasted precipitation events Wednesday and Saturday. State Water Project • DWR is currently forecasting that Oroville Reservoir storage will peak at about 2,450 TAF under a 90% inflow exceedance forecast and 2,900 TAF under a 50% exceedance forecast (Link: HERE). • DWR has completed an operations plan for the 2018-19 flood season which will maintain lower-than- average Oroville lake levels during the winter months. This is to provide operational flexibility to ensure flood protection, meet water deliveries, meet environmental requirements, and prevent use of the emergency spillway this winter, as construction will continue on the emergency spillway into early 2019 (Link: HERE (see other updates)). Delta/South of Delta Operations Flow values in this section are rounded to the nearest 100 cfs. • Controlling Factor(s) in the Delta: Available Physical Capacity (per DWR Delta Ops report) o There is currently no regulatory limit on exports due to high Delta inflow. Since San Luis Reservoir is full, pumping at Banks and Jones is capped at the level of downstream demands. o NMFS RPA Action IV.2.3 for Old and Middle River (OMR) flow management and FWS RPA Action 3 (to protect larval and juvenile delta smelt) are currently in effect, but are not controlling operations. Both regulations require OMR flows to be no more negative than -5,000 on a 14-day running average and -6,250 cfs on a 5-day running average. The OMR Index Daily Value is currently 100 cfs. o The D-1641 X2 requirement must be met for the entire month of February at Chipps Island (74 km), either on a daily or 14-day average basis. That requirement can also be met with a 3-day average Delta outflow of 11,400 cfs. Currently the requirement is being met with a daily X2 position of 56 km and a 3-day average outflow of 112,300 cfs. The X2 requirement at Port Chicago was triggered for March, but can be met using carryover days from February if needed. This should not significantly affect operations. o The D-1641 E/I ratio export cap of 35% is currently active, but is not controlling. The ratio is currently at 4.8% (14-day average). o The D-1641 baseflow requirement on the San Joaquin River at Vernalis is 2,280 cfs for the monthly average and 1,824 cfs for the 7-day average, and is being met with a monthly average flow of 16,100 cfs and a 7-day average flow of 15,900 cfs. Page 3 o The Delta is currently in Excess Conditions. Reclamation’s COA accounting report currently shows the SWP in debt to the CVP by 39,400 cfs of exports, which equates to about 78 TAF (Link: HERE). This occurred because of SWP pumping of unused CVP water in September and October. Eliminating this debt could allow for increased CVP exports in the future. COA debt is typically settled up towards the end of the year, but it can also be zeroed out if storage in the major reservoir (Shasta or Oroville) of the project that is owed water hits its flood pool. Currently Shasta is encroached into its flood pool. • Daily Delta outflow is 104,300 cfs down from 164,800 cfs last week. • Delta inflow is 104,300 cfs, down from 165,700 cfs last week. Inflow is 66,100 cfs on the Sacramento River at Freeport, 15,200 cfs on the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, 18,400 cfs from the Yolo Bypass, and 4,400 cfs from Eastside streams. • Jones pumping increased to a 2-unit operation of 1,800 cfs on Wednesday March 20, to meet demands on the Delta Mendota Canal (including Section 215 water). This is an increase from prior 1-unit operation of 800 cfs. • Banks pumping has averaged 5,400 cfs over the last week, compared to 4,900 cfs during the prior week.
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