FRIANT WATER UPDATE

March 20, 2019 NOTE: Fifteen ALERT items, on pages 2 and 4-7. Data current as of March 18, 2019, unless otherwise noted.

Meteorology, Climate, and Hydrology

Recent Precipitation Events • There was no significant precipitation last week. Statewide snowpack did not change, staying at 153% of the April 1 average.

Water Year 2019 Precipitation (Oct 2018 – Sep 2019) • Sacramento Valley: 131% of normal for this week (Link: HERE) • : 129% of normal for this week (Link: HERE) • Tulare Lake Region: 135% of normal for this week (Link: HERE)

WY2019 Snow Accumulation DWR automated snow sensors for snow water content (Link: HERE). • North Sierra: 151% of Apr 1 average; 152% of normal for this week • Central Sierra: 155% of Apr 1 average; 159% of normal for this week • South Sierra: 150% of Apr 1 average; 154% of normal for this week • Statewide: 153% of Apr 1 average; 156% of normal for this week Note that other snowpack estimates differ in terms of how current snowpack compares to normal for this date. A recent report from the University of Colorado estimated snowpack at 207% of normal for this date in the North Sierra, 187% in the Central Sierra, and 220% in the South Sierra (Link to detailed reports and data HERE)

Looking forward: • The National Weather Service forecasts the arrival of a weak weather system bringing light precipitation on Tuesday evening, continuing through Wednesday night or early Thursday. Another storm system will bring light rain and snow on Friday and Saturday. Total precipitation will be up to 3 inches at high elevations, with greatest precipitation in the north. Snow levels will be above 7,000 feet on Tuesday and lowering to 5,000 – 6,000 feet Wednesday. See maps of the 6-day precipitation forecast (Link: HERE for Sacramento Basin and Eastside streams; HERE for San Joaquin Valley). • The medium-term precipitation forecast is above normal for both the 6- to 10-day and 8- to 14- day outlooks. (Link for 6- to 10-day: HERE; Link for 8- to 14-day: HERE). • DWR’s March 1 Water Supply Index Forecasts were released on March 9 (Link: HERE) o Unimpaired Runoff Forecast: 50% exceedance is 22.7 (127% of average) o Sacramento Valley Water Year Type Index (40-30-30): 50% exceedance is 9.6 (Wet) o San Joaquin Valley Water Year Type Index (60-20-20): 75% exceedance is 3.7 (Above Normal) o The 50% exceedance for the Sacramento and 75% exceedance for the San Joaquin are the values used to make the final water year determination under D-1641. • The March Bulletin 120 Forecasts were also released (Link for Sacramento Basin: HERE, Link for San Joaquin: HERE) • DWR commentary on both the Water Supply Index and Bulletin 120 Forecasts is available (Link: HERE).

Other resources: • An authoritative climate and meteorology blog (Link: HERE). • Interactive, real-time meteorology updates available at Ventusky (Link: HERE). • Weather updates from the National Weather Service Sacramento office are available (Link: HERE).

NASA Airborne Snow Observatory • ALERT: The Airborne Snow Observatory has completed surveys during the past weekend for the San Joaquin Basin’s South Fork and Lower elevations; two military restricted areas of the Kings; and the Kaweah basin. Preliminary SWE results for flown basins will be transmitted beginning Wednesday, March 20 for use in upcoming DWR forecasts and to the USDA ARS for simulating runoff timing. Other basins will be flown as soon as weather permits. (Link: HERE)

North of Delta / Temperature Operations • CVP reservoirs: are now above normal with a total storage of 6,260 TAF. Trinity, Shasta, and Folsom are at 110%, 111%, and 109% of their 15-year average storages for this week, respectively. Releases from Keswick (below ) are at 20,800 cfs decreasing from 40,200 cfs last week. Releases from (below Folsom ) are at 5,300 cfs, decreasing from 15,500 cfs last week. Both Shasta and Folsom are still encroached into their pools and are making releases for flood control, though at reduced levels. • Reclamation’s daily CVP water supply report is available (Link: HERE). • Oroville: storage is at 2,672 TAF, which is 115% of its 15-year average. Releases from Oroville (below Thermalito) are at 6,000 cfs, decreasing from 7,000 cfs last week. This is for flood management purposes. Lake levels will be kept lower than normal this winter to provide operational flexibility and prevent use of the emergency spillway. • Storage levels for CVP North of Delta reservoirs by 182 TAF, and Oroville storage increased by 79 TAF.

Looking forward: CVP Allocation and Operations • ALERT: Reclamation updated the allocation for CVP north-of-Delta contractors on March 15 (Link: HERE). The allocation is as follows: o Agricultural service contractors: 100% of their contract supply o M&I water service contractors (including and In-Delta): 100% of historic use

Page 2 • Reclamation’s March operational forecasts are projecting that end of September storage in Shasta will be 3,194 TAF under a 90% exceedance forecast and 3,397 TAF under a 50% exceedance forecast, allowing for significant carryover into the following water year. • Discussions are ongoing between Reclamation and NMFS on development of a Temperature Management Plan for the upper Sacramento River. According to the Reclamation operations office, the level of snowpack in the watershed upstream of Shasta Reservoir is sufficiently high that they are comfortable that temperature operations on the upper Sacramento River will be effective this summer and fall. • Minutes from the February 21 American River Group meeting are available (Link: HERE). Reservoir Inflows • Inflows to North-of-Delta reservoirs will decrease throughout the week, with small spikes responding to forecasted precipitation events Wednesday and Saturday. State Water Project • DWR is currently forecasting that Oroville Reservoir storage will peak at about 2,450 TAF under a 90% inflow exceedance forecast and 2,900 TAF under a 50% exceedance forecast (Link: HERE). • DWR has completed an operations plan for the 2018-19 flood season which will maintain lower-than- average Oroville lake levels during the winter months. This is to provide operational flexibility to ensure flood protection, meet water deliveries, meet environmental requirements, and prevent use of the emergency spillway this winter, as construction will continue on the emergency spillway into early 2019 (Link: HERE (see other updates)).

Delta/South of Delta Operations Flow values in this section are rounded to the nearest 100 cfs. • Controlling Factor(s) in the Delta: Available Physical Capacity (per DWR Delta Ops report) o There is currently no regulatory limit on exports due to high Delta inflow. Since is full, pumping at Banks and Jones is capped at the level of downstream demands. o NMFS RPA Action IV.2.3 for Old and Middle River (OMR) flow management and FWS RPA Action 3 (to protect larval and juvenile delta smelt) are currently in effect, but are not controlling operations. Both regulations require OMR flows to be no more negative than -5,000 on a 14-day running average and -6,250 cfs on a 5-day running average. The OMR Index Daily Value is currently 100 cfs. o The D-1641 X2 requirement must be met for the entire month of February at Chipps Island (74 km), either on a daily or 14-day average basis. That requirement can also be met with a 3-day average Delta outflow of 11,400 cfs. Currently the requirement is being met with a daily X2 position of 56 km and a 3-day average outflow of 112,300 cfs. The X2 requirement at Port Chicago was triggered for March, but can be met using carryover days from February if needed. This should not significantly affect operations. o The D-1641 E/I ratio export cap of 35% is currently active, but is not controlling. The ratio is currently at 4.8% (14-day average). o The D-1641 baseflow requirement on the at Vernalis is 2,280 cfs for the monthly average and 1,824 cfs for the 7-day average, and is being met with a monthly average flow of 16,100 cfs and a 7-day average flow of 15,900 cfs.

Page 3 o The Delta is currently in Excess Conditions. Reclamation’s COA accounting report currently shows the SWP in debt to the CVP by 39,400 cfs of exports, which equates to about 78 TAF (Link: HERE). This occurred because of SWP pumping of unused CVP water in September and October. Eliminating this debt could allow for increased CVP exports in the future. COA debt is typically settled up towards the end of the year, but it can also be zeroed out if storage in the major reservoir (Shasta or Oroville) of the project that is owed water hits its flood pool. Currently Shasta is encroached into its flood pool. • Daily Delta outflow is 104,300 cfs down from 164,800 cfs last week. • Delta inflow is 104,300 cfs, down from 165,700 cfs last week. Inflow is 66,100 cfs on the Sacramento River at Freeport, 15,200 cfs on the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, 18,400 cfs from the Yolo Bypass, and 4,400 cfs from Eastside streams. • Jones pumping increased to a 2-unit operation of 1,800 cfs on Wednesday March 20, to meet demands on the Delta Mendota (including Section 215 water). This is an increase from prior 1-unit operation of 800 cfs. • Banks pumping has averaged 5,400 cfs over the last week, compared to 4,900 cfs during the prior week. While the State share of San Luis is full, Banks is currently pumping for Article 21 supplies which are being carried past San Luis down the California Aqueduct. There is currently 0 cfs pumping at Banks to wheel water for the Cross Valley Canal. • CVP San Luis storage remains at 964 TAF. CVP San Luis is now full, and storage is at 129% of its 15-year average. CVP San Luis currently holds 210 TAF of rescheduled supplies, of which 60-70 TAF is currently subject to loss due to foregone pumping. Sustained drawdown of CVP San Luis will likely begin in April if weather stays dry and demands increase, with the exact timing dependent on San Joaquin River flow at Vernalis and pumping levels in April under the San Joaquin I/E ratio export cap. • SWP San Luis storage is 1,058 TAF, very close to last week. SWP San Luis is now full, and storage is at 124% of its 15-year average. • Reclamation South of Delta daily operations report is available (Link: HERE). • gates were closed on November 30, and will remain closed until further notice, as is required under NMFS BO Action IV.1.2. This RPA requires that the gates be closed beginning December 1, in order to reduce loss of emigrating salmonids and green sturgeon.

Looking forward: • ALERT: Reclamation released an updated allocation for CVP south-of-Delta contractors on March 15 (Link: HERE). The allocation is as follows: o Agricultural service contractors: 55% of their contract supply o M&I water service contractors: 80% of their historic use • ALERT: Allocation discussion: Reclamation operational forecasts indicate that the 55% allocation for south- of-Delta agricultural water service contractors is supported under a range of forecasted hydrology conditions, from drier future hydrology (the 90% exceedance forecast) to median hydrology (the 50% forecast). The allocations do not increase when moving to the wetter, 50% forecast because the Fall X2 requirement requires about 5,000 cfs more outflow under that scenario, as the compliance location moves westward from 81 km to 74 km east of the Golden Gate Bridge. This counter-balances the additional inflows and would prevent an allocation increase. Conditions wetter than the 50% forecast could provide additional allocations. • ALERT: Reclamation declared the availability of Section 215 water for CVP south-of-Delta contractors on March 12. Section 215 demand estimated by the districts will be pumped at Jones Pumping Plant.

Page 4 • ALERT: On March 20, DWR announced an increase in the State Water Project allocation to 70%, up from the previous 35% allocation announced in February (Link: HERE). • Reclamation’s March operational forecasts are projecting that CVP San Luis will hit a low point of 75 TAF in August under the 90% exceedance forecast, and 29 TAF in November under a 50% exceedance forecast. The lower and later low point in the 50% is again due to the increased Fall X2 requirement. • Flow on the Sacramento River at Verona is projected to fall from 53,800 cfs on Tuesday to 41,000 cfs on Sunday. Flow on the San Joaquin River at Vernalis is projected to rise slightly from 15,200 cfs on Tuesday to 15,600 cfs Sunday.

Friant Division Operations • ALERT: Friant Water Supply Allocation for WY 2019-20 as of 3/15/19: o Class 1 100% Allocation o Class 2 Uncontrolled Season operations have been updated to Unlimited delivery amounts through April 10, up to each District’s maximum contract quantity. This is an increase from the 210 TAF used previously for the period through April 10. • ALERT: On March 14, SJRRP, in consultation with the Restoration Administrator and under the authority of the Contracting Officer, announced the availability of a second block of 2019 Unreleased Restoration Flows (URFs) of 95,000 acre-feet. This is on top of a first block of 37,000 acre-feet (net at the turnouts) announced earlier. These are available to Class 2 contractors, and are Tier 1 URFs priced at $20 per AF, which goes directly to the SJRRP Restoration Fund. These URFs should be scheduled and delivered anytime starting now but before May 1. URFs must be paid for at the time of scheduling. There are no refunds for any undelivered water. Additional URFs will be available later in the year; acceptance or decline of this first block of URFs has no bearing on subsequent URF offerings. Class 2 contractors may participate by either 1) accepting the pro-rata quantity and commitment to purchase, 2) accepting the pro-rata quantity and interest in making a commitment for additional URFs should other contractors not accept their full quantity, or 3) accepting an amount of water less than the pro-rata quantity (or zero). Should Class 2 contractors not commit to all of this water, it may be offered to Class 1 contractors. • ALERT: During Uncontrolled Season, Recovered Water Account (RWA) water is now available to contractors with positive provisional RWA balances, up to a maximum of 50 TAF. This RWA water will be priced at $10. • ALERT: Reclamation is requesting all Friant Division Contractors to provide the following water schedules for CY 2019 (for planning purposes only, not as a declaration of supply) due to the recent and projected hydrology: o Class 1 of 100%, with: . Class 2 residual of 35% (available for the remainder of the Contract Year) . Carryover . Uncontrolled Season: unlimited up to Class 2 contact amount through April 10th . RWA Water: 50 TAF (Friant Contractors with positive provisional RWA balances through April 10th) . URF Class 2 Tier 1 Block 1 of 37 TAF (delivered before April 1st) . URF Class 2 Tier 1 Block 2 of 95 TAF (delivered before May 1st) . URF Class 2 Tier 2 Block 1 of 95 TAF (delivered before June 1st) o Class 1 of 100%, with:

Page 5 . Class 2 residual of 50% (available for the remainder of the Contract Year) . Carryover . Uncontrolled Season: unlimited up to Class 2 contact amount through May 31st . RWA Water: 50 TAF (Friant Contractors with positive provisional RWA balances through April 10th) . URF Class 2 Tier 1 Block 1 of 37 TAF (delivered before April 1st) . URF Class 2 Tier 1 Block 2 of 95 TAF (delivered before May 1st) . URF Class 2 Tier 2 Block 1 of 85 TAF (delivered before June 1st) . URF Class 2 Tier 2 Block 2 of 85 TAF (delivered before July 1st) . URF Class 2 Tier 2 Block 3 of 75 TAF (delivered before August 1st) Email requested water schedules to Craig Mayfield ([email protected]), Rufino Gonzalez ([email protected]) and Gary Perez ([email protected]) by COB, Wednesday, March 20. • ALERT: As of Tuesday March 19, Millerton is currently making releases of 3,000 cfs for flood control. These releases are forecast to continue until at least April under a 90% exceedance forecast and possibly into June under a 50% exceedance forecast. See Figure 1 on page 8 for a detailed schematic of San Joaquin Basin flood control operations. • daily operations report (Link: HERE), CDEC information (Link: HERE), and Water Year accumulation plot (Link: HERE). The final runoff for the October 2017-September 2018 Water Year was 1,348,797 AF.

Looking forward: • ALERT: Millerton is expected to fill in early July. Storage in Millerton was 425,474 AF on March 18. This includes an estimated 22 TAF of Rescheduled Water, which must be delivered before the end of Uncontrolled Season and prior to taking any Uncontrolled Season water. Storage increased by about 900 AF compared to last week. • Inflow forecasts for Millerton are available from DWR’s Bulletin 120 (Link: HERE) and from NWS (Link: HERE). SCCAO and SJRRP agreed on an 80%/20% meld of DWR forecast and NWS forecast data, respectively, for the purpose of preparing the water supply scenarios.

San Joaquin River Settlement Implementation

Restoration Flow Releases • ALERT: On February 26, Reclamation released an updated “Normal-Wet” Restoration Allocation (total Restoration Flow of 411,122 AF above holding contract deliveries) for the 2019-20 water year, based on a 50 percent exceedance forecast. During Normal-Wet Restoration year types, a portion of the allocation to support the Settlement may be met by flood releases, with the remainder expected to be met from reductions in water deliveries to Friant Contractors. The year type and allocation will be updated as conditions warrant. • The current default flow schedule calls for a Gravelly Ford target flow of 1,375 cfs (1,370 cfs of Restoration Flows) and the target at Sack Dam is 1,225 cfs. The RA has not yet submitted a recommended schedule for the remainder of the water year since the February 26 allocation update. With the release of 3,000 cfs of Flood Flows from , the flood flows are considered to be serving the beneficial purposes of Restoration Flows and no additional releases are made as Restoration Flows.

Page 6 The volume of Restoration Flows available at the end of Flood Flow releases is being reduced by the scheduled amount of Restoration Flows.

Recapture/Recirculation • @ Mendota Pool: Reclamation determined that 2,684 AF was recaptured during February (primarily due to limitations on releases past Sack Dam during the pulse flow period) and the water has been distributed to all Friant contractors in accordance with relative Class 2 contract quantities. Reclamation also adjusted the December MP recapture from 1,638 to 1,920 AF and distributed that additional water at the same time as the February MP recaptured water. There is currently no recapture occurring at Mendota Pool, because flood flows are not recapturable. • @ Patterson ID and Banta-Carbona ID: There is currently no capacity in San Luis Reservoir to store recaptured water, so recapture at PID/BCID is unlikely even after Flood Flows are terminated until capacity is available and SLR starts to draw down, likely later in April at the earliest. • Current Recaptured Supplies in San Luis Reservoir: There is currently little or no 2018-19 recaptured water stored in SLR due to the risk of loss when the reservoir fills and starts to draw down. Most or all Recapture water was delivered or transferred by Friant districts prior to the end of February. It is currently unclear how long districts have to move their shares of the 2,684 AF recaptured at MP in February and made available to Friant contractors last week, but it is expected that all Recaptured Water must be removed or it will be lost when sustained drawdown in SLR occurs. • Distribution of Recaptured Water: Because the Class 1 allocation is currently at 100% and is expected to remain at that level throughout the water year, it is expected that all recapture in the current water year will be allocated to Class 2 contractors. • ALERT: Reminder: Schedules for the transfer of recapture supplies are required to be identified as Class 1 or Class 2 so that Reclamation can apply appropriate charges for the water. Transfers without such identification may be subject to potential rejection by SCCAO.

River Settlement, Restoration Area Conditions: • Based on preliminary estimates, the San Joaquin River Restoration Program has captured 377 wild salmon at three rotary screw traps (RSTs) installed in Reaches 1 and 2, as of March 17. This includes 307 fry, 30 parr, and 40 smolts. • Temperature conditions are currently optimal for all life stages of Chinook salmon.

Looking forward: Recapture Supplies in San Luis Reservoir • ALERT: Final Recaptured water for March 2018-February 2019 is shown in Table 1 below on page 9. The distribution of recaptured water by contractor for March 2018-February 2019 is shown in Table 2 on page 10. Fisheries Monitoring • Reclamation's Fisheries and Wildlife Resources Group and the California Department of Fish and Wildlife will perform rotary screw trap monitoring for juvenile spring-run Chinook salmon in Reaches 1–2 of the Restoration Area from November 1, 2018 through June 30, 2019. Data collected for this multi-year study will inform SJRRP fisheries and flow management decisions and habitat rehabilitation efforts that aim to increase Chinook Salmon abundance by reducing juvenile mortality/losses in a highly modified river system.

Page 7 Figure 1. Detailed Schematic of San Joaquin Basin Flood Control Operations

San Joaquin River Basin Kings River Basin

Wednesday, March 20, 2019 8:00 AM Total Upstream Storage 275,858 AF 611,688 Capacity 45% Total Upstream Storage 61,977 AF 251,900 Capacity 25% Millerton Lake Storage 419,422 AF 520,500 Capacity 81% Pine Flat Lake Storage 624,337 AF 1,000,000 Capacity 62% Total Storage 695,280 AF 1,132,188 Max Capacity 61% Total Storage 686,314 AF 1,251,900 Max Capacity 55%

Millerton Available Storage 101,078 AF Available Storage 565,586 AF

Buchanan Res. Hidden Res. Millerton Lake / Friant Dam Pine Flat Dam Capacity in (AF) 150,000 Capacity in (AF) 90,000 Capacity in (AF) 520,000 Capacity in (AF) 1,000,000 Storage (AF) 116,714 Storage (AF) 38,911 Storage (AF) 419,422 Storage (AF) 624,337

Madera Canal Friant-Kern Canal 100 89 Millerton Pine Flat 562 2,924

Kings River South: Target @ Army Weir 2,815 795 Brenda Slough Fresno River Controlled Release to the San Joaquin River Kings River North: Ash Slough from Friant Dam Target @ 522 Crescent Weir

2,117 Gravelly Ford Gauging Station R B 450 Crescent Weir

Bifurcation Structure

Eastside Bypass @ Washington Ave. CDEC Gauge ELN 655 876 BRT 57 Chowchilla Bypass San Joaquin River Below The Bifurcation James By-Pass Gauging Station CDEC Gauge CBP to the Mendota Pool One mile northwest of the intersection of CDEC Gauge SJB American & Placer Ave. at the James By-Pass

San Joaquin River San Joaquin River CDEC Gauge SDP CDEC Gauge MEN Mendota Pool 166 440

Mendota Pool Elevation in ft. Mendota Pool Supply from the Delta Mendota Canal Total Mendota Pool Demands 13.24 550 781 Note: Information in this report is gathered from a variety of sources including DWR-CDEC…BOR…ACOE…KRWA…SJRECWA…SLDMWA along with personal contacts etc. and is for informational purposes only.

Page 8 Table 1. Monthly Recapture Volume during March 2018 – February 2019 for Friant Contractors in acre-feet. Recapture supplies are held in San Luis Reservoir unless otherwise scheduled for delivery by individual contractors. (Source: Reclamation e-mail to Friant Contractors)

At Mendota At Lower Month Pool, AF SJR,AF Total March 552 3,130 3,682 April 1,114 4,200 5,314 May - 3,900 3,900 June - 2,699 2,699 July - 1,503 1,503 August - 2,650 2,650 September - 2,850 2,850 October - 3,200 3,200 November - 3,250 3,250 December 1,920 3,250 5,170 January - 4,680 4,680 February 2,684 2,027 4,711 Total through February 14 6,270 37,339 43,609

Page 9 Table 2. Monthly Recapture Volume during March 2018 - February 2019 for Friant Contractors in acre- feet. Recapture supplies are held in San Luis Reservoir unless otherwise scheduled for delivery by individual contractors. (Note: “2017 Class 2 Recirculation Adjustment” involves overuse by two districts in 2017, and only affects Mendota Pool Recapture available supply total and has no effect on 2018 Lower SJR Recapture.) (Source: Reclamation e-mail to Friant Contractors)

Mendota Cumulative 2017 Class 2 Lower SJR Pool Available Recirculation Recapture, Recapture, through Feb Adjustments AF Contractor AF 28, AF Arvin-Edison WSD - 1,107 6,096 7,203 Chowchilla WD - 640 3,169 3,609 City of Fresno - 125 - 125 City of Lindsay - 5 - 5 City of Orange Cove - 3 - 3 County of Madera - - - - Delano-Earlimart ID - 471 3,926 4,397 Exeter ID - 86 588 674 Fresno Co. WW #18 - - - - Fresno ID - 246 - 246 Garfield WD - 7 - 7 Gravelly Ford WD - 46 - 46 Hills Valley WD - 3 - 3 International WD - 2 - 2 Ivanhoe ID - 15 169 184 Kaweah Delta WCD - 27 - 27 Kern-Tulare WD (10) 17 46 53 Lewis Creek WD - 3 - 3 Lindmore ID - 141 1,180 1,321 Lindsay-Strathmore ID - 57 683 740 Lower Tule River ID - 909 5,417 6,326 Madera ID (308) 788 3,909 4,389 Orange Cove ID - 82 975 1,057 Porterville ID - 130 865 995 Saucelito ID - 153 1,071 1,224 Shafter-Wasco ID - 234 1,892 2,126 So San Joaquin MUD - 350 3,150 3,500 Stone Corral ID - 21 249 270 Teapot Dome WD - 15 180 195 Terra Bella ID - 60 722 782 Tri-Valley WD - 1 - 1 Tulare ID - 526 3,052 3,578 TOTALS (318) 6,270 37,339 43,291

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