MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook Update August 2011 Food security conditions remain stable Key Messages • Currently, food security conditions are generally stable with minimal acute Figure 1. Most likely food security food insecurity, even in the areas that were affected by this year’s mid‐ outcomes, August 2011 season dry spells and localized flooding. Throughout the outlook period, the majority of rural households countrywide, and middle and better off households in the areas of concern (parts of Changara, Chemba, Mutarara, and Machaze in the central region; and Massangena, Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Mabalane, Mabote, Funhalouro, and Panda in the south) will be food secure. However, close monitoring is required in these areas as some of the very poor and poor households will experience acute food insecurity. • Areas deserving special focus over the outlook period include southern parts of Massangena district and the north of Chigubo district. In these areas, chronic adverse agro‐climatic conditions, compounded by this year’s abrupt and early cessation of rains, affected crop yields, reducing food availability and constraining access. Households in these areas will experience Stressed food insecurity conditions (IPC Phase 2) from September onwards. • Prices of maize, the main staple food, were stable between June and July, and decreased in some markets such as Manica, Gorongosa and Tete. In Source: FEWS NET general, prices of all monitored food commodities including maize, beans and rice are still above the five‐year average but similar to or below those of Figure 2. Most likely food security last year in most markets monitored by the Agricultural Market Information outcomes, September-December 2011 System (SIMA). Updated food security outlook through December 2011 While SETSAN/GAV is planning for a countrywide annual vulnerability assessment in August/September, the current food security situation for the majority of rural households appears to be generally stable with minimal or no acute food insecurity conditions in most parts of the country, including in those areas affected by this year’s mid‐season dry spells and localized flooding. However, starting in October, which marks the start of the lean season, low‐ income and resource poor households, particularly those in semi‐arid, arid, and remote areas, will face food access constraints. Food security in these areas this year has been affected by low food stocks due to poor crop yields as a result of erratic and early cessation of rains in late January when crops were still in need of moisture. Other contributing factors include the foot and mouth disease outbreak that prevented animal sales; above‐average food prices; and persistent Source: FEWS NET lack of potable water. For more information on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale This report provides an update to the July 2011 FEWS NET Food Security Outlook report which estimated food security outcomes in Mozambique from July through December 2011. The next Outlook report will be released in October and will cover the October 2011 through March 2012 period. FEWS NET Mozambique FEWS NET Washington Maputo 1717 H Street NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +258 21 460 588 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/mozambique MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook Update August 2011 Identified areas of concern requiring close monitoring include the Figure 3. Districts (in orange) covered by the FEWS districts of Changara, Chemba, Mutarara, and Machaze in the NET rapid assessment, 1-5 August, 2011 central region and Massangena, Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Mabalane, Mabote, Funhalouro, and Panda in the south. While the majority of households in these areas, especially the middle and better off, are expected to be food secure (IPC Phase 1) throughout the outlook period, some of the very poor and poor will face acute food insecurity conditions from September onwards. As food stocks dwindle and access becomes increasingly problematic, households will engage in insurance coping strategies to meet basic food needs. In Massangena and Chigubo however, households identified as food insecure exceed 20 percent of the district population, and therefore both districts have been classified in IPC Phase 2 for the period September to December (Figure 2). From June to July, prices of maize, the main staple food, were quite stable, even registering drops in some markets. However, despite these trends, prices of all monitored food commodities including maize, beans and rice remain above the five‐year average but are similar to or below those of last year. In order to verify the prevailing food security conditions in the areas of concern, FEWS NET carried out a rapid qualitative food security assessment during the first week of August 2011 covering Chicualacuala, Massangena and Chigubo districts in northwest Gaza Province (Figure 3). The assessment consisted of key Source: FEWS NET informant interviews with district agriculture authorities, community leaders, farmers, district based NGOs, and household representatives; as well as observations from community visits. Areas identified as deserving special focus are located in southern Massangena district and northern Chigubo district, where the main crops are millet, sorghum and cowpea. In these areas, chronic adverse agro‐climatic conditions compounded by this year’s abrupt and early cessation of rains affected crop yields, resulting in reduced food availability. Food reserves for most households are fast running out, and by the beginning of September the majority of the very poor and poor will have exhausted all food stocks. These households will experience Stressed food insecurity conditions (IPC Phase 2). Poor households in these two areas earn very little income, even in normal years, which limits their ability to make up for production losses through purchases. For instance, the sale of crops contributes very little to poor households’ income since they sell little of what they produce. Furthermore, income earned through the sale of natural products (such as grass and building poles), and other goods and crafts is also negligible. Consequently, to meet food needs, households normally employ a range of typical coping strategies, including consumption of wild foods, exchanging labor for food, and receiving gifts and remittances. It is expected that from October until the end of the lean season in February, households will intensify the use of these strategies. Wild foods consumed will include wild roots (xicutso and matiwo), wild fruits (macuacua, malambe and massala), and drinking wild fruit juice (utchema). Also, as the area is surrounded by three major national parks, small game plays an important role as a source of food which is intensified during the lean season as a coping strategy. Land preparation which starts in September will provide opportunities for poorer households to exchange labor for food. Although remittances are no longer as important a source of income as they were in the past, FEWS NET observed that some families were already receiving these from relatives in South Africa and elsewhere. In Massangena and Chigubo district, no second season is practiced, and water availability has already become a problem although this is a chronic situation in the area. The scarcity of water is forcing households to travel longer distances in search of water, resulting in failure to engage in other activities such as farming and school attendance. The shortage of water will force people to use water from less potable sources, including livestock watering points, which may result in disease outbreaks such as cholera and diarrhea. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook Update August 2011 Findings from Chicualacuala district on the other hand, suggest relatively stable food security conditions, as rains performed reasonably better compared to other adjacent districts, allowing for slightly better development of crops such as maize, millet, sorghum, and cowpeas. In addition, rearing and sale of livestock, and production and sale of charcoal are important for livelihoods in the district. These can all be intensified to meet basic food needs when food stocks run out. In August 2011, the ban on livestock sales imposed by agriculture authorities was partially lifted. Livestock sales have thus resumed, though at lower rates than is normal for this time of year. In all assessed areas, livestock body condition is good and pasture still widely available. Overall, acute food insecurity conditions in this district are minimal. Nonetheless, close monitoring (especially over the lean season) is required in the Administrative Post of Mapai, where FEWS NET observations point to much tighter food reserves. Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 .