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US POLICY 2019 Fall Forecast

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US POLICY 2019 Fall Forecast US POLICY 2019 Fall Forecast dentons.com • 1 Subcommittee Full Full House/ Conference Signed Committee Senate House 05/15/19 05/22/19 06/25/19 N/A Interior and President Environment** Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A Labor/ House 04/30/19 05/8/19 06/18/19 N/A HHS/ President Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A Education* Legislative House 05/1/19 05/9/19 N/A N/A Branch President Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A Military House 05/1/19 05/9/19 06/25/19 N/A Construction/ President Senate Veterans N/A N/A N/A N/A Aairs** State/ House 05/10/19 05/16/19 06/18/19 N/A Foreign President Appropriations Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A Operations* Transportation/ House 05/23/19 06/4/19 N/A N/A HUD President “If we do a CR, it’ll be short term. When I say short Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A term, no more than 60 days. Shutting down the government is a harmful alternative.” *H.R.2740 combines the appropriation bills for Labor/HHS/Education, Defense, State-Foreign Operations, and Energy & Water **H.R.3055 combines the appropriation bills for CJS, Agriculture, Interior, and —House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) Mil-Con & VA Sources: Congress.gov Work on fiscal 2020 spending bills has been ongoing in the House for months. The House Appropriations Committee has marked up all 12 spending bills, 10 of which the chamber passed by mostly party-line votes. Shutdown? Before leaving for the August recess, Congress passed The Senate will likely use the House bills as a guide as the two a massive budget deal that raised caps on domestic chambers conference over appropriations bills ahead of the and defense spending and suspension of the debt end of the fiscal year. ceiling through July 2021, decreasing the likelihood of Debate over the homeland security appropriations bill, which a government shutdown. Domestic programs will, on ultimately held up negotiations last year and led to a 35-day average, receive 4 percent increases in the first year of government shutdown, will likely be divisive again this year. the pact, with much of those gains eaten up by veterans increases and an unavoidable surge for the US Census. One new issue this year that could divide some Republican Defense will jump to $738 billion next year, a 3 percent hike. appropriators is whether to restrict when and how the administration can reprogram money, especially for border barrier construction. Senators are discussing how they can package together the appropriations bills into some kind of omnibus. Subcommittee Full Full House/ Conference Signed Committee Senate House 05/23/19 06/04/19 06/25/19 N/A Agriculture** President Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A Commerce/ House 05/17/19 05/22/19 06/25/19 N/A President Justice/ Senate Science** N/A N/A N/A N/A House 05/15/19 05/21/19 06/18/19 N/A Defense* President Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A Energy House 05/15/19 05/21/19 06/18/19 N/A and Water* President Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A Financial House 06/3/19 06/11/19 06/26/19 N/A Services/ President Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A General Gov’t Homeland House 06/5/19 06/11/19 N/A N/A Security President Senate N/A N/A N/A N/A *H.R.2740 combines the appropriation bills for Labor/HHS/Education, Defense, State-Foreign Operations, and Energy & Water **H.R.3055 combines the appropriation bills for CJS, Agriculture, Interior, and Mil-Con & VA Sources: Congress.gov 2 • dentons.com Trade For too long, workers here and throughout the developed world have been frustrated by elected officials who talk about the problems resulting from globalization – but do nothing about them. For too long, policymakers here and throughout the developed world have been intimidated by the claim that any effort to shift trade policy in a more worker-friendly direction represents some type of Smoot-Hawley style “protectionism.” But this is nonsense –recent events demonstrate that by using its leverage as the world’s largest market, the United States can create better conditions for U.S. workers, and encourage more efficient global markets. —United States Trade Representative Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer STATUSSTATUS OF PRESIDENT OF PRESIDENT TRUMP’S MAJOR TRADE TRUMP’S ACTIONS MAJOR ACTIONS Complete In progress Stalled United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)/NAFTA renegotiation Countries: Canada, Mexico Implemented Agreement 19942008 Renegotiation reached Signed into law USKorea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) renegotiation Countries: South Korea Implemented Agreement Renegotiation Agreement updated 2012 in principle Sept. 2018 Sect. 232 – nat’l security – steel & aluminum Countries: All countries Exempted indeinitely: Argentina, Brazil, Australia, South Korea, Canada, Mexico Investigation Taris Announced Retaliatory inished enacted taris enacted Sect. 232 – nat’l security – automobiles Countries: All countries Investigation Taris Announced Retaliatory inished enacted taris enacted Sect. 301 – unfair trade practices – intellectual property theft* Countries: China Investigation Taris Announced Retaliatory inished enacted taris enacted Sect. 201 – harm to domestic industry – solar cells and washing machines Countries: All countries Investigation Taris Announced Retaliatory inished enacted taris enacted Sources: Congressional Research Service * 10% tari on approximately U$300 B of Chinese goods goes into eect on September 1st for most and December 15th for certain articles. $250 billion worth of imports from China are already taried at 25%. dentons.com • 3 Value inBillions Value inGoodswithMexico AnnualTrade U.S. 4 can decide extend the USMCA. to every six years, which at point the US, Mexico, and Canada “sunset” after 16 years. The deal is also subject areview to clause —meaning the the of terms agreement or expire, Sunset clause: not liable content theirso for they’re users produce. companies internet for protections and e-books, and music suchdigital economy, as prohibiting duties on things like the with deal to provisions new includes and competition, a pharmaceutical drug generic can from be protected It also extends 50). from the the periodof author (up that years beyondextends 70 the life the copyright of terms to Intellectual property and digital trade: US farmers, abig issue Trump. for market: dairy Canadian the access to more get farmers US hour 2023. by parts must be made who earn workers least at by $16 an Labor provisions: under NAFTA). 62.5 qualify from percentto duty-free (up treatment for components manufactured in Mexico, the US, or Canada trucks 75 must percent have their of value sourced from rules: Country origin of the biggestHere are changes, via VOX: yet. happened both think can they reach aconsensus —but hasn’t that trade official top and Houseprovisions. Trump’s Democrats enforcement environmental and labor tougher seeking are US Congress hasn’t up taken the USMCA, and Democrats the process and in tandem plans move to the with US. The Mexico has the approved agreement. Canada has begun provisions. trade digital and protections, property intellectual standards, labor and environmental stricter pact has been include tweaked to changes automakers, for The USMCA updates. is afew with The essentially 2.0, NAFTA USMCA •dentons.com The US got Canada open to up its dairy to market The agreement adds a16-year “sunset” 40 to 4540 to percent automobile of Passenger vehicles and light The deal deal The Value inBillions Value inGoodswithCanada AnnualTrade U.S. inBillions Value inGoodswithMexico AnnualTrade U.S. $(100) $(100) $300 $300 $400 $400 $(50) $(50) $200 $200 $350 $350 $250 $250 $100 $100 $150 $150 $50 $50 Imports Imports $0 $0 1989 1989 1990 1990 1991 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 Exports Exports 1994 1994 1995 1995 1996 1996 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 ofTrade Balance 2002 ofTrade Balance 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 China “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them.” —President Donald Trump The world’s two largest economies have been locked in a However, US allies pressured Mr Trump at the G7 summit bruising trade battle for the past year that has seen tariffs in France, warning that the trade war is threatening the imposed on billions of dollars worth of one another’s goods. global economy. It’s not just the G-7 countries that argue the The US is trying to force Beijing to reform its trade practices, President’s trade policies are jeopardizing the global economy. arguing that American firms face an uneven playing field due Many in the US, including most Democrats, believe that the to issues such as intellectual property theft. Administration’s China trade/tariff policy threatens to put the US and the global economy into a recession. TIMELINE OF U.S. - CHINA TRADE DISPUTE The U.S. announces 30% tari on imported solar panels and large January 2018 residential washing machines Tari s of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum from all nations, March 2018 including China, take e ect China imposes tari s on U.S. imports worth $3 billion in response April 2018 to the U.S. tari s on steel and aluminum May 2018 U.S. and China reportedly reach an agreement and put the tari s on hold while they work out the details June 2018 Trump imposes tari s on $50 billion in Chinese goods: duties on China retaliates with tari s on $50 billion of U.S.
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