Cheltenham Festival 2010

BETTING SCHOOL INSIDERS NEWS REPORT

Welcome to the Betting School Insiders Club guide to Cheltenham 2010.

As ever the time flies by and the talking will soon be over, yes, the annual highlight of the National Hunt Season will soon be upon us and 26 of the most hotly contested races will be run at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival.

The aim of this guide will be to build a profile of each of these races based on strong historical trends to enable you to narrow the field down to a shortlist of lively contenders.

We hope you find it useful and that you have an enjoyable and profitable festival.

Darren & Steve

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All content is copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent Contents Contents ...... 2 1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle ...... 3 2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase ...... 3 2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase ...... 4 3.20 Champion Hurdle ...... 4 4.00 Cross Country Chase ...... 5 4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle ...... 5 DAY TWO (WEDNESDAY 17th MARCH) ...... 6 1.30 National Hunt Chase ...... 6 2.05 Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle ...... 6 2.40 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase ...... 7 3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase ...... 7 4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle ...... 8 4.40 Fred Winter Novice’s Handicap Hurdle ...... 8 5.15 Weatherby’s Champion Bumper ...... 9 DAY THREE (THURSDAY 18th MARCH) ...... 10 1.30 Jewson Novices Handicap Chase ...... 10 2.05 Pertemps Final handicap Hurdle ...... 10 2.40 Ryanair Chase ...... 11 3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle ...... 11 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase ...... 12 4.40 Kim Muir Cup Handicap Chase ...... 12 DAY FOUR (FRIDAY 19th MARCH) ...... 13 1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle ...... 13 2.05 County Hurdle ...... 13 2.40 Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle ...... 14 3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup ...... 14 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase ...... 15 4.40 Martin Pike Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle ...... 15 5.15 Grand Annual Chase ...... 16

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------2 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent DAY ONE (TUESDAY 16th MARCH)

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle Run over a distance of 2 miles 100 yards and open to novices aged 4 years or older.

Trends

This race always attracts a large field and past experience of racing in large fields is a definite advantage. Irish trained runners have won 7 of the last 10 runnings and the forecasted odds on favourite Dunguib hails from those shores.

- 12 of the last 13 winners won last time out. - ONLY 6 favourites have won in the last 30 runnings and none in the last 5 years. - 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the previous 45 days.

Conclusions: - Dunguib has outstanding claims and as a result has scared off a lot of the potential opponents, however, given his likely price and the record of favourites in this ultra competitive race the value may lie in taking him on. Of those that have claims are Henry King, Blackstairmountain, Morning Supreme and Get Me Out Of Here.

2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Run over 2 miles and open to horses aged 5 years and older.

TrendsThe Arkle often goes to a strongly fancied contender and the top end of the market is a good guide with the biggest price winner since 2000 being Well Chief at 9/1.

- French bred horses have won 7 of the last 15 outings. - 21 of the last 23 winners had finished 1st or 2nd last time out. - ONLY 2 winning favourites since 1992. - 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles.

Conclusions: - Captain Cee Bee is the current forecast favourite and is a past winner at the festival when taking the 2008 Supreme Novices Hurdle. Injuries have kept him to only 4 runs since and he has impressed on the last two starts over the bigger obstacles. He looks sure to have strong claims especially if the going rides on the good side of soft. Others likely to figure are Sports Line, Kangaroo Court and Riverside Theatre.

------3 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Run over 3 miles and 110 yards and an ultra competitive handicap chase. Trends Often features a large field and is won by an improving animal which is well handicapped as a result. Proven stamina is a key factor and the race is generally ran at a fast pace.

- ONLY 2 winning favourites in the last 30 runnings. - Last 10 winners carried less than 11 stone. - Younger horses (10 years or less) have dominated in recent times.

Conclusions: - At this stage it is difficult to highlight potential selections as plans have not been finalised with many of the leading fancies holding multiple entries at The Festival. Once the line up is known concentrate your study on recent solid (winning) form from a younger and likely improving horse and you should get a good run for your money.

3.20 Champion Hurdle The highlight of Day One and the most valued hurdle race to win all season. Past course form and the stamina to stay further that the race distance of 2 miles 110 yards have proved to be a winning formula in past runnings.

Trends - 22 of the last 26 winners won last time out. - 6-8 year olds have dominated. - The market is a strong guide with 17 of the last 19 winners starting in the first 6 in the betting.

Conclusions: - With mixed messages being gleaned from the recent form of the main contenders, this years race has an open feel to it. The current second favourite is Dunguib who we have already discussed to be likely to run in the earlier novice’s race. The 3rd favourite Solwhit has met with a setback and is 50:50 to make the line up. If the going rides good then 2007 winner Sublimity could be in the shake-up (currently a doubtful runner). Others include the current favourite Go Native, Khyber Kim and Medermit.

------4 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 4.00 Cross Country Chase A relatively new race to be added to The Festival and quirky by nature as the inner part of the race course is used along with a whole variety of fence types.

Trends - All 5 winners to date have been from the first two in the betting. - Targeted and invariably won by trainer Edna Bolger.

Conclusions: - A fun race to watch and likely to be dominated by the top two in the market, both trained by Edna Bolger, Garde Champetre and L’Ami.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle Another new race with only two previous runnings at The Festival. Open to mares only and run over 2 miles and 4 ½ furlongs.

Trends - Not enough date to use.

Conclusions: - Likely to include a very short priced favourite in Quevega due to her impressive performance in winning the race last year. Currently the market goes 10/1 bar two, and a lively outside may be Fairyland and Sway.

------5 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent DAY TWO (WEDNESDAY 17th MARCH)

1.30 National Hunt Chase Run over a distance of 4 miles and open to novices aged 5 years or older.

Trends This race is the oldest race at The Festival and there have been 139 runnings, it is also the longest race and the runners are ridden by amateurs. A combination of these facts has made it a very difficult race to predict the winner of, with only two favourites winning in the last 7 years.

- 24% of the last 26 winners finished in the first 4 last time out. - Only one 6 year old has won since 1989 and no 5 year old for over 30 years. - Jonjo O’Neill has won 4 of the last 8 runnings.

Conclusions: – Jonjo saddles the former smart staying hurdler Ringaroses who could go well along with the likes of The Sliotar and Becauseicouldntsee.

2.05 Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle Run over a distance of 2 miles and 5 furlongs and open to novices aged 4 years or older.

Trends Recent winners have come from both top class stayers from the flat and the more old fashioned chasing types. The betting has been a good guide with 22 of the last 24 winners starting in the first 6 in the betting.

- 5 year olds have won 7 of the last 10 renewals. - Older horses (7+) have won only once in the races history - 25 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

Conclusions: - With Dunguib due to run on day 1 a number of potential runners in his race have been re-routed to this one making it even tougher than normal. Some Present and Manyriverstocross are lively outsiders, whilst both Peddlers Cross and Rite of Passage are potential stars of the future. Finian’s Rainbow could be suited by the likely better ground and can also run well.

------6 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 2.40 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase Run over 3 miles and about ½ furlong, and open to novices aged 5 years or older.

Trends Because of the pace that the race is usually run at it can throw up unlikely winners and quite a few favourites have been turned over although the last 3 have actually won.

- Experience counts and the last 10 winners had raced at least 3 times over fences. - 21 of the last 22 finished 1st or 2nd last time out. - Horses aged 7 or 8 have the best recent record, with 13 of the last 15 winners. - 6 year olds have a poor record with only 2 wins since 1978.

Conclusions: - Nicky Henderson has a very strong hand here with both Punchestown and Long Run, with Weapon’s Amnesty also having a good chance. There are a couple of possibles in outsiders Chasing Cars and Hey Big Spender.

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase Run over 2 miles and open to 5 year olds or older.

Trends The feature race on Day Two and the market has been a strong guide in recent times with 10 of the last 11 winners starting at no bigger than 5/1.

- Previous Arkle Trophy winners have a good record with 9 of the last 11 going on to finish 1st or 2nd in this race the following year. - 19 of the last 25 winners had won or been placed at The Festival before. - 26 of the last 28 winners started at single figure odds. - Horses aged 5-9 years old have the best record with 17 winners of the last 20 re­ newals.

Conclusions: - Master Minded has won the last 2 runnings and will be at very short odds to make it a hat trick. For each-way money Kalahari King may be the best option given good going, and Big Zeb looks likely to make the frame.

------7 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Run over 2 miles and 5 furlongs and the first big handicap hurdle at The Festival.

Trends Each year huge gambles take place and the live market can be a good guide but not always for the favourite.

- 6 out of the last 7 won last time out. - Only 1 favourite has won in the last 15 renewals.

Conclusions: - With such a competitive race it may well be the best policy to see where the live market money is going and stakes should be kept to a minimum.

4.40 Fred Winter Novice’s Handicap Hurdle Open to 4 year old novices only, and run over 2 miles and about ½ furlong. Named after a legendary jockey who went on to a glittering training career.

Trends With only 5 runnings of this new race it is difficult to put forward any worthwhile statistics. - 4 of the 5 past winners had won last time out. - Sandown form has had a bearing with 3 past winners having previously won there. - The market has not been a good guide to-date and horses 11/1 or better run be­ yond the price expectations.

Conclusions: - With very few key statistics to go on it might be a race best watched or just for fun find a last time out winner (at Sandown even better) that is priced at 11/1+.

------8 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 5.15 Weatherby’s Champion Bumper The only flat race of the entire Festival and run over 2 miles and about ½ furlong.

Trends The market can be a good guide and previous winners have gone on to great achievements.

- Last time out winners have won 15 of the 17 runnings of this race. - The Irish have dominated with 14 of the 17 winners. - 4 year olds are 0-51 runners since 1995.

Conclusions: - With the Irish winning year after year it is the most likely outcome here. Shot From The Hip and Bishopsfurze should go well but the likely winner is Tavern Times.

One final note to this race is the profit that past runners have gone on to generate by following the strategy highlighted by the method called Bumper Profits which was outlined in the February edition of the Betting School Insiders Report.

------9 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent DAY THREE (THURSDAY 18th MARCH)

1.30 Jewson Novices Handicap Chase Run over 2 miles and 5 furlongs and open to novices aged 5 years or older.

Trends Another recent addition to The Festival with only 5 runnings to date.

- 4 out of 5 winners were aged 7 - 8 year olds have a poor record being 0-29 runners - All 5 past winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

Conclusions: - With only 5 runnings the trends are not strong enough to help find this year’s winner. They currently bet 7/1 the field and it may be another race to watch and savour.

2.05 Pertemps Final handicap Hurdle Run over 3 miles and contested by horses aged 5 years old and upwards and who qualified by running in one of a series of trial heats.

Trends This is another major betting race and monster gambles have happened in recent renewals, however, many of these have gone astray.

- Only 1 winning 5 year old in 35 runnings of the race. - Favourites have had a poor recent record with only 1 winning in the last 15 run­ nings. - 13 of the last 17 winners had previously won over 3 miles. - Last time out winning form has been a good pointer in the last 14 runnings.

Conclusions: - At this stage with plans still to be finalised it is difficult to be confident about any specific runner, but when the going is known focus on last time out winners, especially if they are proven on the going and have won at 3 miles recently.

------10 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 2.40 Ryanair Chase Another new addition to The Festival with 5 previous runnings and takes place over 2 miles and 5 furlongs and open to 5 year olds and upwards.

Trends The market so far has been a good guide with the longest priced winner being @ 6/1.

- All 5 past winners of this race had winning form at the course. - The first 4 in the betting have dominated the race to date.

Conclusions: - Poquelin has solid claims and should be place but Barbers Shop has the best credentials after his excellent runs this season.

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle The top staying hurdle race of the season and in recent times past winners have returned and successfully retained their crown. Run over 3 miles and with the likely good going the race is less of a slog.

Trends The market has been a good guide recently with 8/1 being the highest SP in the last 9 years.

- Not 1 five year old has ever won - No Irish trained horse has won for 15 years. - Only one winner older than 9 years old. - The last 22 winners had finished in the first 4 last time out.

Conclusions: - The market is dominated by last years winner Big Bucks who is forecast to go off as on of The Festival banker, with that in mind each-way value may be found in the shape of Marad and Karabak and Tidal Bay could take advantage of any slip up by the favourite.

------11 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase Run over a distance of 2 miles and 5 furlongs.

Trends Both Venetia Williams and Nicky Henderson have good recent records winning 2 each in the last 5 years.

- An open race with only 1 winning favourite since 1981 - Past Festival form is a good guide with 16 of the last 18 winners having run here before.

Conclusions: - Current betting is 10/1 the field so not a race for the faint hearted. Look for a runner in good recent form (won or placed last time out) who had previously run at The Festival.

4.40 Kim Muir Cup Handicap Chase Run over 3 miles and about ½ furlong and all horses are ridden by amateur jockeys.

Trends A very difficult race to predict with many big priced winners in recent times.

- Only 2 of the last 30 winners were aged 7 or younger. - No Irish trained winner for 27 years. - 8 and 9 year olds have had the best recent record winning 12 of the last 16 re­ newals.

Conclusions: - Favourites can win but are infrequent. With all amateur jockeys it may well pay to concentrate on those with the most experience given the unforgiving nature of the course.

------12 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent DAY FOUR (FRIDAY 19th MARCH)

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle Only open to 4 year old novices and run over 2 miles and a furlong.

Trends In recent times the market has been a better guide with 9/1 being the biggest SP in the last 5 renewals. Ex flat or French bred runners have also become the norm but this still remains a very competitive race.

- 14 of the last 16 winners won last time out - The first 4 in the betting have provided 11 of the last 16 winners. - Experience counts with 14 of the last 16 winner having won at least twice over hurdles.

Conclusions: - Me Voici is a great long term prospect but may need soft going and with the conditions likely to be good, Barizan and Investissement can go well. The likely favourite Alavan could turn out to be a class above the other runners.

2.05 County Hurdle An ultra competitive handicap hurdle run over 2 miles and a furlong. The pace is fast and furious from the off.

Trends

- 32 of the last 35 renewals were won by a horse starting at 16/1 or less, although the last two winners were 20/1 and 50/1! - 5 year olds have had a good recent record winning 7 of the last 11 renewals. - Older horses fair less well with only 4 winners since 1959 being older than 7 years of age. - Top weights tend to struggle with no winners carrying more than 11st 8lb for 50 years.

Conclusions: - A number of the leading fancies hold entries in other Festival races at this stage so it is difficult to put forward strong selections.

------13 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 2.40 Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle Another new race added to The Festival and this will be its 6th running. Open to novices aged 4 years or older and run over 3 miles.

Trends The market so far has been a positive guide with the first 5 in the betting supplying all of the winners to date.

- Past winning Cheltenham form has led to 3 winners - Finishing 1st or 2nd last time out has been significant as 14 of the 15 win and placed horses have achieved this.

Conclusions: - Possible outsiders are Possol and Wymott whilst Shinrock Paddy and The Betchworth Kid have strong claims, however Enterprise Park is a really exciting prospect and may well prevail.

3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup Run over 3 miles and about 2 ½ furlongs, and is being billed as the highlight of this years Festival with the last two winners locking horns once again……..Kauto Star and Denman……………… These two stars encompass everything that is great about the National Hunt scene with Champions returning year after year to provide amazing spectacles.

Trends The market has been a very good guide with 5 of the last 7 renewals being won by the favourite.

- Since 1969 all winners have been aged 10 or younger. - The last 9 winners started in the first 3 in the betting. - 15 of the last 16 winners were aged between 7 and 19.

Conclusion: - It will take an almighty upset for Kauto Star to be dethroned but that is what The Festival can throw up, albeit very unlikely. Denman is the obvious danger but will have to bounce back from a disappointing display last time out. Each way value may be with Calgary Bay or Casey Jones.

------14 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase The amateur riders “Gold Cup” and the top Hunter Chase of the season run over 3 miles and about 2 ½ furlongs.

Trends Has been a target of some of the top trainers in recent years but still in the main won by point-to-point runners.

- 17 of the last 19 winners were aged 10 or younger. - 19 of the last 24 winners won last time out. - Bigger priced winners have prevailed recently with 6 of the last 9 being 14/1 or bigger.

Conclusions: - Baby Run ran well in last year’s race and again has strong claims. At bigger prices Bob Hall and Unowatimeen can go well. The favourite Roulez Cool could well romp home but at the current price may not offer value.

4.40 Martin Pike Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle Only the 2nd running of the race named in honour of the former multiple Champion trainer. The race for potential champion jockeys of the future is run over 2 miles and about 4 ½ furlongs.

Trends With only 1 previous race little can be gleaned.

Conclusions: Look for a last time out winner at a decent price for a fun bet.

------15 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent 5.15 Grand Annual Chase Run over 2 miles and about ½ furlong and open to horses aged 5 years or older.

Trends The market has been a good recent guide with 9 of the last 13 renewals being won by horses at 8/1 or less.

- 11 of the last 13 winners had won over 2 miles 2 furlongs + - 30 of the last 35 renewals were won by horses that started at no bigger than 10/1. - 5 of the last 8 winners had previous course winning form.

Conclusions: - Again plans have not been finalised so it is difficult to be specific. Concentrate on the top end of the market with runners having strong previous course form.

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------16 ------Betting School Insiders News Report Month Year All content is ©copyright 2009 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd and may not be reproduced in any way without prior written consent