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Cheltenham 2006: Main Index Tuesday 14 March Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tuesday 14 March Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Smurfit Champion Hurde Tuesday 14 March William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Sporting Index Cross Country Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Royal & SunAlliance Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Queen Mother Champion Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Coral Cup Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Weatherbys Champion Bumper Thursday 16 March Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase Thursday 16 March Ryanair Steeplechase Thursday 16 March Ladbrokes World Hurdle Thursday 16 March Racing Post Plate (A Handicap Steeplechase) Thursday 16 March National Hunt Steeplechase Challenge Cup Thursday 16 March Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) Friday 17 March JCB Triumph Hurdle Friday 17 March Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle Friday 17 March Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Friday 17 March Christie's Foxhunter Steeplechase Friday 17 March Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeplechase Friday 17 March Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: £100,000 Distance : 2m 1/2f Race Stats: 13 renewals and 264 runners 4 year olds have it all to do (1-21). 7 year olds are 0-28. 6 year olds have the best record but You want either a 5 year old (4-109) or 6 year old (7-97) Horses that ran within 15 days struggle (1-32) Female horses are strong (3-8) because of a generous fillies allowance You must be 1-2-3 last time out and ideally 1st last time out (8-101) . Others were 0-77 Horses that were not 1-2-3-4 on their penultimate race as well were 0-41 English Horses that had 5 or more career races are just 1-100 Horses coming from a Handicap are 0-34 Horses that lost by 4 lengths or more last time out are just 2-104 Horses coming from Class 4 (0-46) ,Class 5 -6-7-8 (1-61) underpreform. Class 3 last time is best (4-29) Ireland have the best record (7-64) . Ireland had the 1-2 in '04 and '03 and only Best Mate + a Faller cost it them in 2002 and 2001 The Tolworth Hurdle is not a strong trial and is more so a trial for the Sun Alliance on the Wednesday Flat Breds are best despite NH Bred winners in 2003/2003 - Last years winner was flat bred Return to Tip Index © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: £140,000 Distance : 2m Race Stats: This race was unsuitable for Stats research. Return to Tip Index © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Smurfit Champion Hurde Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: £340,000 Distance : 2m 1/2f Race Stats: 13 renewals and 200 runners Horses with less than 9 career starts are just 2 from 92 and both were Group 1/2 winners on the Flat 5 year olds have a terrible 0-36 record and 10 years or older are unproven (0-10) Horses beaten 4 lengths or more last time out are just 1-87 You want a last time out winner (11-70) and those not 1-2-3 last time were 0-60 Previous Cheltenham form is important. 11 of the last 13 winners had it. Flat Bred horses have a better record than National Hunt bred horses and won 9 of the last 12 No Northern trained horse has won since Sea Pidgeon 24 years ago and many have been fancied The previous years Supreme Novice Hurdle winner has a poor record when trying to win this Horses at 12/1 and over were just 1-138 Front Runners and Prominent Racers have the best record. Many Hold up "Place" but few win Horses coming from Haydock (0-20) underperform All 11 horses that came from a Novice race lost Return to Tip Index © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: £80,000 Distance : 3m 1/2f Race Stats: 14 renewals and 201 runners Horses with less than 7 career starts are just 1-28 Horses with less than 3 runs this season were just 1-44 Horses aged 11 and older are just 1-40 Horses aged 6 are best opposed and havent won since 1994 You want a 1-2-3-4-5-6 placing last time out (others 1-52) Horses coming from a Non Handicap underperform (1-39) From 29 Favourites and second favourites only 2 managed to win Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade2 races last time out are 0-21 Horses that ran 80 + days ago are just 1-25 Horses that had ever worn headgear are 1-38 Crucial Grand National trial so be wary of horses looking laid out for Aintree Henry Daly's runners are always worth a second look despite not winning yet Martin Pipe has a 0-26 record (only 4 placed) and had last years beaten favourite Look away from horses carrying 11st or over . They are outscored by light weights . Return to Tip Index © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Sporting Index Cross Country Steeplechase Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: £40,000 Distance : 3m 7f Race Stats: This race was unsuitable for Stats research. Return to Tip Index © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Tuesday 14 March Prize Money: £75,000 Distance : 2m 1/2f Race Stats: This race was unsuitable for Stats research. Return to Tip Index © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: £100,000 Distance : 2m 5f Race Stats: 13 renewals and 262 runners Horses coming from Warwick (4-19) or from abroad (3-29) are best 5 and 6 year olds dominate taking 12 of the last 13 renewals 4 year olds are 0-16 . Horses aged 7 + are just 1-59 Horses that ran within 15 days are 0-41 Horses that ran 80 or more days ago struggle (0-20) Horses that lost by 2 lengths or more last time out are 0-108 Horses at 16/1 and over are just 1-182 You have to have been 1st or 2nd last time out (Others 0-83) the last to do this was 1982 Horses coming from Class D (0-47) & Class E(0-53) are best avoided Horses that came from a 2m race underperform (1-55) Horses coming from a Handicap are 0-39 Only Gallileo (2002) won with less than 2 races that year and he had ran 3 times on flat 17 of the last 20 winners had ran at least 4 times over hurdles that season Martin Pipe hasnt won this since 1990 and his last 31 runners in this race lost Phillip Hobbs has had just 1 placed horse from 9 runners National Hunt Bred horses are best and dominate over Flat bred horses Return to Tip Index © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Royal & SunAlliance Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: £140,000 Distance : 3m 1/2f Race Stats: 13 renewals and 163 runners Horses coming from Kempton fair very well(4-17) 5 yr olds (0-5) are unproven but all 5 ran well and the weight allowance is generous. 6 year olds struggle unless they are top class (Florida Pearl). Several have been beaten . 9 yrs + (1-24) underperform and the last winner was back in 1992 7 year olds (6-73) dominated in recent years (5 of last 6 winners) Horses must be 1-2-3 last time out - Others 0-39 28 of the last 31 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out Horses that ran at 2m 4f or less last time are 0-32 Horses that win the Feltham Chase (Boxing Day) havent won this since 1975 Flat Bred runners struggle. Only 3 were placed in the last 11 years Return to Tip Index © 2006 www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Queen Mother Champion Steeplechase Wednesday 15 March Prize Money: £290,000 Distance : 2m Race Stats: * Age - Ideally You need a horse aged between 7 and 10 years old. Horses aged 11 and older rarely have the Speed to win. Moscow Flyer achieved this last year but prior to that there had not been one since 1977 and prior to Moscow Flyer (who had already proved himself a champon) all previous runners wererun off their feet and well beaten. There has also not been a 6 year old winner in 32 Years so they need opposing with maximum confidence. * Betting Market -Such are the demands that this race asks of horses the Market really gets it wrong. The Front 3 in the Market usually provide thewinner and they have done so in 40 of the last 46 years. It is not a race for shocks. * Cheltenham Form - This is Vital. 17 of the Last 21 winners Had Finished either 1st 2nd or 3rd at a Previous Cheltenham Festival. From the 4 that had not done so 2 of them has won Quality races at Cheltenham at other times. * Recent Form - The Last 26 winners all Ran 1st 2nd or 3rd on their latest start. * Stamina - Despite the 2m Trip this is a race for certain stayers. From the last 16 winners 12 had previously won over asfar as 2.5 Miles and 14 of the 16 had won at Trips of further than 2 Miles.
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