Table of Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 3 Altior ................................................................................................................................... 6 Apples Jade ........................................................................................................................ 7 Ballyandy ............................................................................................................................ 9 Irish Cavalier ....................................................................................................................... 9 Leoncavello ....................................................................................................................... 11 Moon Racer ...................................................................................................................... 13 Native River ...................................................................................................................... 15 Viuex Lion Rouge .............................................................................................................. 16 Sizing Granite .................................................................................................................... 17 Westend Story .................................................................................................................. 18 Willie Mullins Dark horses ................................................................................................ 19 Supreme Racing 5 to follow .............................................................................................. 21 Picks from the Paddock 5 to Follow………………………………………………………………………………23 Page 2 of 26 Introduction Hello there and a warm welcome to Cleeve Racing’s Ten to Follow list for the 2016-17 National Hunt season As usual we have put together a list of horses for you that we expect to generate a level stakes profit if followed through the season - when race conditions are in their favour. ● Willie Mullins dark horses ● Supreme 5 to follow Each entry has a detailed analysis that gives you the rationale behind why the selection has made the list, and underlines the race conditions required to allow them to show their best form. Our advice is to load them into a tracker which will notify you when they are running. We hope you enjoy reading through the list and that it generates plenty of excitement and profit for you throughout the season! Best wishes, The Team at Cleeve Racing Page 3 of 26 Last years Ten to Follow results We unearthed a couple of stars in Thistlecrack (who could have been backed at 20/1 for the World Hurdle at the time of release) and Footpad from the Willie Mullins yard who won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown at a massive 14/1. But there were inevitably some disappointments, notably Clarcam who contested mostly Grade 1 chases but just didn’t seem to be good enough to win any. Also Peace and Co who turned out to be a bit of a fruit cake and Sizing Granite who seemed to fall out of love with the game. Page 4 of 26 Page 5 of 26 1. Altior 6-y-o (06May10 b g) High Chaparral (IRE) (10.6f) — Monte Solaro (IRE) (Key Of Luck (USA) (9.5f)) Trainer - Nicky Henderson Owner - Mrs Patricia Pugh Altior was one of the most impressive winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle I have seen, he came to the race unbeaten from 4 runs after looking particularly impress when demolishing Open Eagle by 13 lengths in the Dovecote in Kempton in a faster time than the then Champion Hurdle holder Faugheen recorded on the same card. It looked briefly as though the Mullins hotpot Min was going to win but Altior who had jumped and travelled well throughout found plenty for Nico de Bonville and Min had no answer when he quickened past him going to the last, which he again pinged and stretched away up the hill to record a 7 length victory in a time that was 4 seconds faster than standard (which equates to about 20 lengths!). He holds a Champion Hurdle entry and I think he has both the class and experience to win that race. The 2015 winner Faugheen has had a lay off with a suspensory ligament injury and may not come back quite the horse he was in fact he may not even run in the race with reigning Champion Annie Power in the same ownership looking so impressive and so Faugheen could even end up in the World Hurdle. Altior handles pretty much all types of going but if the going is good or good to soft then his cruising speed and ability to quicken will make him hard to beat. I actually think that Altior will be a better chaser than a hurdler and look forward to him tackling the bigger obstacles in the next couple of years. I will be interested in him for the Arkle in 2018 and am looking forward to bookmakers pricing that up. I would suggest backing him on ground which is not extreme over two miles up to two miles three furlongs. Lifetime Record Starts Wins 2nds 3rds Winnings Earnings Best TS Best PR OR NHF 3 1 0 1 £1,560 £4,436 91 132 — Hurdle 5 5 0 0 £109,019 £109,019 152 163 160 Rules Races 8 6 0 1 £110,578 £113,455 — — — Page 6 of 26 2. Apples Jade 4-y-o (24Apr12 b f) Saddler Maker (IRE) — Apple´s For Ever (FR) (Nikos (9.7f)) Trainer Unknown at present (was Willie Mullins) Owner Gigginstown House Stud The breaking news as I write this is that Apple’s Jade is one of the 60 horses which Gigginstown have removed from the care of Willie Mullins. This was allegedly in a dispute over training fees which were being increased for the first time in ten years, in which case I think says more about Mr O’Leary than it does about Willie Mullins. The indication at this time is that Apple’s Jade goes to Gordon Elliott... But back to the horses and when Willie Mullins describes Apple’s Jade as his best ever juvenile then you sit up and take notice, considering he has trained novices such as Vautour, Douvan, Faugheen et al. She made her debut in a white hot Knight Frank which is traditionally Ireland’s best Triumph Hurdle trial where she battled it out with the unbeaten Jer’s Girl in very soft conditions to get up on the line. She turned out next in the Triumph Hurdle where prominent for most off the race she took it up round the home turn and jumped the last in the lead but was picked up halfway up the hill by Ivanovich Gorbachev which was no real surprise given his edge in experience and flat class, still she only went down by 1½ lengths and the front two were well clear off the 3rd She reversed that form when absolutely slamming Ivanovich by 41 lengths at Aintree again showing her liking for soft going. Having re-watched that race a couple of times it is still hard to believe just how impressive Apple’s Jade was that day. She was always travelling strongly, jumping fast and clean and simply sauntered clear under a motionless Brian Cooper from 3 out recording the easiest Grade One victory I have ever seen. Her final appearance of the season saw her take the 4-y-o Champion Hurdle at Punchestown in a similarly impressive style by 9 lengths. Page 7 of 26 Interestingly she holds entries in both the Champion Hurdle and the World Hurdle but I am guessing that is more down to the strength in depth that Willie Mullins held in the Champion Hurdle. Now that Apple’s Jade is with Gordon Elliott I would expect her to go for the Champion Hurdle, which should see a clash between her, Faugheen, Min and Altior. and if the ground came up unseasonably soft she could give them all a real run for their money, especially in receipt of her mares allowance. I would suggest backing her anytime she runs on ground softer than good and distances from 2 miles to 2 miles 4 furlongs. Lifetime Record Starts Wins 2nds 3rds Winnings Earnings Best TS Best PR OR Hurdle 5 4 1 0 £129,048 £154,692 135 164 153 Rules Races 5 4 1 0 £129,048 £154,692 — — — Page 8 of 26 3. Ballyandy 5-y-o (06Apr11 b g) Kayf Tara (13.7f) — Megalex (Karinga Bay (12.7f)) Trainer - Nigel Twiston-Davies Owner - Options O Syndicate Ballyandy looks a real tough nut and it looks as though this attitude and his experience will hold him in good stead for his novice season. The winner of 3 of his first 4 bumpers including two listed he went into the Festival bumper the well fancied second favourite. The race is always a tough one with a big and mainly inexperienced field so bad luck stories are common, however BallyAndy was always prominent until they came down the hill where the field bunched a bit and he lost his position and suddenly looked in trouble. Realising this Sam Twiston Davies squeezed him and he immediately quickened and was back in the race, he stayed on really well all the way up the straight and eventually claimed the favourite Battleford as they approached the line. What I really liked about that performance was the fact that the horse battled so hard to come up the hill and win this race. He was then fourth in the Champion Bumper at Aintree but I think that was down to the fact that he had such a tough race only three weeks beforehand. Unlike the majority of runners in that race Ballyandy has already made his novice debut up at Perth where he finished second behind Moon Racer (the 2015 Champion Bumper who also features on this list). He looked to be travelling best as the race hotted up but made a bit of a hash of it two out and came off the bridle. They then had a protracted duel all the way to the line where Moon Racer came out ¾ of a length to the good. That mistake probably cost him the race and I expect him to improve from that first run and win over hurdles next time. I think Ballyandy will win a few hurdles this coming season and develop into a contender at next year’s festival. He seems to cope with any going except fast and I would suggest Page 9 of 26 anything around two miles will be his best distance this season. His size also suggests he will make a fine chaser. LIFETIME RECORD STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST TS BEST RPR OR† NHF 6 4 1 0 £64,205 £72,736 103 137 — Rules Races 6 4 1 0 £64,205 £72,736 — — — Page 10 of 26 4.