Donnelly and the Braun Campaign Divide Republican’S General Campaign Vastly Different Than His Primary Victory by BRIAN A
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V24, N9 Thursday, Oct. 11, 2018 Donnelly and the Braun campaign divide Republican’s general campaign vastly different than his primary victory By BRIAN A. HOWEY WESTVILLE, Ind. – Call it the Janus Factor in the Indiana U.S. Senate race. From November of last year through his upset May primary victory over two congressmen, Mike Braun ran one of the most compelling, effec- tive campaigns with legendary optics. Since his pri- mary victory through Monday night during his first debate with U.S. Sen. Joe Donnel- ly, we’ve seen a split personality with the Braun campaign. Gone is later Braun ads are duller and industrialized, whereas Don- the clever and cunning wit we saw with his “two cardboard nelly and his allies are carving away the Republican’s cred- cutout” ads that skewered Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke ibility on the actions of his companies and on the topic of Messer. Donnelly and his super PAC allies have created a health care, issues which had worked to Braun’s advantage significant money gap, to the point where it seems like there are two Donnelly ads for every one for Braun. The Continued on page 4 Pence and Haley By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – When Vice President Mike Pence strides into the J.W. Marriott Friday night for the Republi- can Fall Dinner, and then the Saturday GOP “Right Track Barnstorm Tour” kickoff, he finds himself at the apex of “This unsubstantiated story from Trump World. The president’s approval over 26 years ago is unequivocally popped up to 41% in CNN track- ing. Unemployment is the lowest false. My engagement of Linda in 50 years. Trump achieved Pence, a well-respected attorney his remake of NAFTA, and that has bought him some time with and Democrat, was for the pur- Hoosier farmers and manufactur- pose of protecting my reputaton ers still nervously awaiting some resolution to the shotgun $200 from a false story by the India- billion tariffs aimed at China. Most Hoosier farmers are sticking napolis Star.” with the president even as their - Speaker Brian Bosma Page 2 bottom lines take a hit. tricably linked to his legacy. The first is On that front, Pence thrust obvious: President Trump. Pence has himself fully into the China fray this been undyingly loyal to a president past week by warning the emerging that insists upon that attribute among Pacific powerhouse that it mustn’t those in his winnowing inner circle. meddle or assault our elections, and The second fully emerged on it had better keep away from our Tuesday, abruptly and unexpectedly: ships, that latter notice coming after a United Nations Ambassador Nikki Howey Politics Indiana close call with the USS Decatur and a Haley. She caught the Washington and Chinese interceptor ship. “The United foreign policy establishments un- WWHowey Media, LLC 405 States Navy will continue to fly, sail awares by tendering her resignation. Massachusetts Ave., Suite and operate wherever international Here’s my prediction: In a 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 law allows and our national interests post-Trump era, the likely rivalry will www.howeypolitics.com demand,” Pence said at the Hudson be between Pence and Haley. The two Institute. “We will not be intimidated; put on a good, friendly face Tuesday we will not stand down.” when she stopped by Pence’s White Brian A. Howey, Publisher It conjured memories of House office for a photo op. They Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Pence as a congressman Cameron Carter, Editor years ago, forecasting a Joel Weyrauch, Editor probable war between Mary Lou Howey, Editor the U.S. and China by mid-century. The Hudson Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo Institute speech was Jack E. Howey, Editor called “very ridiculous” Emeritus by Beijing, but the New York Times and Wall Street Journal columnist Subscriptions Walter Russell Mead (see HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 page 20) saw it as a pre- HPI Weekly, $350 cursor to something else: HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly “Behind closed doors, Ray Volpe, Account Manager however, Mr. Pence’s remarks probably left few 317.602.3620 doubts among China’s email: [email protected] leaders that Washington was embarking on a Cold War that would force the country to even attempted to share a top aide Contact HPI dig in for a prolonged multifront battle until Trump nixed it early last summer. [email protected] with the United States, analysts said.” But these two characters bring all the Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 “This will look like the decla- elements of a future political war. Washington: 202.256.5822 ration of a new Cold War, and what In breaking down this scenar- Business Office: 317.602.3620 China may do is more important than io, the first question is, when does the what it will say about Pence’s speech,” Trump era end? He is in a full-mount Zhang Baohui, professor of interna- reelection mode, with a Pence nephew © 2018, Howey Politics tional relations at Lingnan University embedded in the campaign. Trump is Indiana. All rights reserved. in Hong Kong, told the NYT. fabulously popular with the GOP base, Photocopying, Internet forward- As for elections, Pence so a nomination showdown within the ing, faxing or reproducing in believes that Beijing seeks regime party would be the proverbial fool’s change, here in the U.S. of A. “China errand. any form, whole or part, is a wants a different American president,” Having said that, Trump was violation of federal law without Pence said. “By one estimate, more the oldest elected president. His diet permission from the publisher. than 80% of U.S. counties targeted and health are potential problems. His by China voted for President Trump in approval never seems to crest above 2016; now China wants to turn these 45%. And there’s that Robert Mueller voters against our administration.” probe that keeps the president up late As for Pence’s own political at night and tweeting. Could Mueller’s future, there are now two people inex- report, should it be made fully public, Page 3 sow the seeds of impeachment? versial aspects of Trumpism. She insisted that Justice Unlikely. Impeachments are national tragedies. Kavanaugh’s accusers should be heard. When pressed There’s never been a successful impeachment and, given by a reporter on her advocacy of sanctions on Russia the political lay of the land, it is nigh impossible that that seemed to go against the president’s stance, Haley two-thirds of the U.S. Senate would vote that way. While snapped, “With all due respect, I don’t get confused.” the Mueller probe is a legal exercise, the most potentially By exiting when she did on her own terms, with- lethal impacts to Trump will be political. Should Mueller’s out the demeaning twitter fire and degradation, Haley findings be damning, the Trump base is likely to hold, but finds her reputation fully intact. At age 46, with two terms you can imagine the wider center tumbling away. The left as South Carolina governor and two years at the United is already in full “Resistance” mode. Nations, she now has a compelling domestic and foreign The legal aspects of Mueller, particularly indict- ments of sons or in-laws, could have unpredictable consequences. Some specu- late Trump might cut a deal and leave the scene in order to spare blood and kin. But the PBS “Frontline” episode “Trump’s Showdown” is steeped in the legacy of the late Roy Cohn, a McCarthy- ite and ultimate New York insider who brawls, turns lies into truths, defeats into vic- tories, all while shooting up the messengers. Roy Cohn’s credo lives vibrantly within President Trump. My bet is that Trump runs for reelection and he legacy. has a real shot at winning. Filmmaker Michael Moore, Vice President Pence is fully invested in all things one of the few who predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, Trump. He has morphed his positions on free trade and explained on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” recently, “I wake up spiraling deficits and debt, as well as support for the Mus- every day to the fact that this could be a two-term Trump lim ban. It will be hard for Pence to find separation from presidency. People two years ago didn’t take him seriously. Trump policy and liabilities. Of course, that could cut both He’s just a joke, he’s crazy. He’s cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs. ways: If the Trump tariffs gnaw at the farm belt bottom- He out-smarted everybody. He’s still doing it. He’s the line and force Hoosier manufacturers out of business, master distractor and the king of the misdirect. The left Pence assumes that liability. If the president is right, and and liberals didn’t understand that.” brings President Xi and Beijing to their knees on trade, But Trump’s health, legal liabilities and potential and the tax cuts pay for themselves and erode the deficits, loss of everything but his ardent political base is the cere- Pence can assume that victorious mantle. bral arena for those who would follow him in office. Pence Having said all that, if the Trump reelect is full and Haley will lead that list. steam, and polling shows the need for a female on the Haley leaves the Trump administration widely and ticket, well, loyalty with Donald J. Trump has proven to be highly regarded by the foreign policy establishment and a one-way street. It’s not probable, but some in the Pence even the Eastern press. The New York Times editorial sphere might want to do a little historical research on board, under the headline “Nikki Haley will be missed,” Hannibal Hamlin and Henry Wallace.