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Short-Term Weather Forecasting for Disaster Preparedness in Venezuela

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Short-Term Weather Forecasting for Disaster Preparedness in Venezuela Short-term Weather Forecasting for Disaster Preparedness in Venezuela INGRID GARCIA-SOLERA DEPARTMENT OF RISK MANAGEMENT, MARACAIBO, VENEZUELA; THE CENTER OF SCIENTIFIC MODELING; LATIN AMERICAN OBSERVA- TORY OF EXTREME EVENTS South America l Disaster Risk Reduction INTRODUCTION The Department of Risk Management of Maracaibo in the Zulia state of Venezuela distributes a Meteorological News Bulletin that details the local and regional weather forecast for a three-day time horizon. The bulletin explains current daily precipitation as well as forecasted cumulative precipitation, relative humidity, wind, and temperature. In addition to forecast information, the bulletin provides recommendations regarding disaster prevention measures, which are meant for local government agencies and national-level interest groups. The Meteorological News Bulletin reaches key socioeconomic sectors and decision makers, and is an important link in the chain of climate information dissemination throughout western Venezuela. The Department of Risk Management falls within the Civil Protection and Disaster Administration in the municipality of Maracaibo. This bulletin, however, extends beyond Maracaibo in geographic scope and provides data for the entirety of the state of Zulia and the municipalities within it. This case study focuses primarily on the municipalities of Maracaibo and Guajira. Information used in this initiative comes primarily from two institutions within the Observatorio Latinoamericano de Eventos Extraordinarios Figure 1: Reservoirs (embalses) in Mara. Mara is located in the northwest (Latin America Observatory of Extraordinary Events, OLE2 ) network: region of Zulia and is bordered by La Guajira municipality to the north, the Center of Scientific Modeling (CMC) of Zulia University, and the Jesús Enrique Losada and Maracaibo municipalities (not pictured the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Venezuela here) to the south, Maracaibo Lake to the east, and the Republic of (INAMEH). The bulletin specifically relies on the weather products Colombia to the west (Rodriguez 2012). available on the OLE2 web portal and in the Observatory’s Climate Bulletin. In the past, the containing walls of both reservoirs have broken during The bulletins were originally created in 2007 by Roberto J. Rodriguez, heavy rain events, resulting in riparian flooding and severe inundation who was then the coordinator of the Department of Risk Management in the surrounding areas of Guajira. Heavy rainfall can also lead to of Maracaibo. These bulletins continue to be produced and distributed flooding in urban areas because the region’s drainage system is under the leadership of Rodriguez, who edits the climate projections inadequate and poorly maintained. and produces the bulletin, and with the continuous support of CMC. Due to the rains throughout the municipality of Guajira in December 2011, for example, flooding as high as 1.3 meters caused damage to SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUND housing and street infrastructure. The flood also caused the electric, The northern region of the Zulia State has two reservoirs, Manuelote phone, and potable water services to be suspended. The same heavy and Tulé, both within the Mara municipality (Figure 1). rains also affected the Las Navas region of Maracaibo, creating mudslides and overwhelming the drainage system. The resulting flood carried refuge into the streets, affecting transportation infrastructure, damaging over 10,000 homes, and causing four deaths (Image 1). Such flood events also affect the public health sector, as they cause an increase in the occurrence of diseases such as malaria, dengue, cholera, leptospirosis, and yellow fever. Climate Services Partnership 1 Image 1: Citizens transporting one of the flood victims (La Radio del Sur 2011). TARGET AUDIENCE CLIMATE AND CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION The Meteorological News Bulletin is most influential on the municipal The climate of Venezuela varies seasonally: the dry season lasts level. When the bulletin was in its earlier stages, it was sent primarily to from November to March, while the longer rainy season, which brings the Marcaibo City Hall and fire department, which used the information frequent and intense precipitation events, lasts from April to November. to support decision making and planning. Assuming a proactive (as The Maracaibo Lake basin also experiences climate variability due to opposed to reactive) approach to disaster management allowed the the effects of geography: the Maracaibo Lake, the Andes mountain both actors to minimize their financial expenditure and safeguard the range, and the Perijá mountain range are particularly influential. community. Soon after, government officials at the Guajira City Hall Most of the yearly precipitation occurs to the south of the lake, with approached Rodriguez and also expressed interest in the bulletin. more than 2.800 mm/year. Lastly, Venezuela also experiences El Guajira has since become an active user of the Meteorological News Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the effects of which have a major Bulletin, which serves as an important tool for disaster mitigation in influence on Venezuelan society (Las lecciones de El Niño, 1997-98). the region. Abnormally high precipitation events in the northwestern region The bulletin also informs decision making at the national level. of Venezuela are responsible for yearly flooding and mudslides, Organizations such as Petroleum of Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) use which have been more common in the past decade (Figure 2). The the bulletin’s information to guide their daily offshore operations and Meteorological News Bulletin specifically focuses on the factors minimize the risk of weather-related accidents. The Venezuelan that influence these disasters, and provide decision makers with Hydrated Alcohol Manufacturer (PRALCA) is a public sector the necessary tools to monitor weather events, fortify preparatory petrochemical company that similarly uses the bulletin to prepare in measures and safeguard communities. advance of strong electric storms. Today, Rodriguez distributes the news bulletin by email to 217 recipients, and his user list continues to expand. Figure 2. Annual floods and mudslides in the northwestern region of Venezuela from 1960-2009 (Campos, Jose Miguel and Lelvs Bravo de Guenni 2011) Climate Services Partnership 2 Rodriguez creates the Meteorological News Bulletin every three days of Maracaibo. They continue today under the leadership of Rodriguez, based information obtained through the websites of organizations who edits the climate projections and produces the bulletin. within the OLE2 network: the Center for Scientific Modeling (CMC), the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Venezuela Various information providers within the OLE2 network are involved (INAMEH), University Center of the Coast, Bolivarian Aviation with the production of the bulletin. The primary contributors, however, Meteorological Service, and the Institute for Hydrology, Meteorology, are CMC and INAMEH. and Environmental Studies of Colombia (IDEAM). Additional institutions contributing data include the Weather Channel and the OLE2 is a regional collaborative network aimed at increasing the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The efficiency of the decision-making processes throughout Latin America. majority of the data used for the bulletin are provided by CMC and Specifically, OLE2 is focused on obtaining accurate environmental INAMEH. The bulletin is edited without any formal funding, as both information and encouraging organizations within its network to institutions have agreed to provide the necessary resources for free exchange experiences regarding methodologies and scientific on their respective websites. products. The partners of this collaboration involve national weather services, airport authorities, universities, and research institutes from In addition to the climate information published in the bulletins, Central America, the Andean countries, and from southeast South Rodriguez also provides explanation for the maps. He uses simplified America. language to ensure the information’s accessibility to all users, even those without a scientific background. Presently, OLE2 is coordinated by the Center of Scientific Modeling (CMC) of the Universidad del Zulia, in Venezuela. CMC is also one When the climatic projections show an extreme event for the region, of the main contributors to the Meteorological News Bulletin initiative such as higher than normal precipitation, the Department of Risk and is responsible for providing the weather model outputs, which are Management warns the director of civil protection of Maracaibo. The focal point of the bulletin. CMC has also provided Rodriguez with the director then calls a meeting to discuss the possibility of raising an training needed to interpret the CMC’s climatic models and a laptop alert. If the meeting committee decides that an alert is necessary, for Rodriguez’s work. they notify the mayor of Maracaibo, who is responsible for warning the community about the potential extreme event. If the mayor does INAMEH is the national meteorological service of Venezuela, a not support an alert announcement, the Department of Civil Protection partner within the OLE 2 network, and the other main source of data and other local groups (the fire department, the police department, used in the bulletin. INAMEH functions mostly on the national level and community volunteers) will take basic measures to prepare
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