TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR INFORMATION PAPER Uwe Remme, Nathalie trudeaU, dagmaR gRaczyk aNd PeteR tayloR 2011 February TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR INFORMATION PAPER Uwe Remme, Nathalie trudeaU, dagmaR gRaczyk aNd PeteR tayloR This information paper was prepared for the Energy Technology Perspective Project of the International Energy Agency (IEA). It was drafted by the Energy Technology Policy Division of the International Energy Agency (IEA). This paper reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat, but does not necessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries. For further information, please contact Uwe Remme at [email protected] 2011 February INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. 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The European Commission The terms and conditions are available also participates in online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp the work of the IEA. © OECD/IEA 2011 Technology Development Prospects for the Indian Power Sector Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ 5 Executive summary......................................................................................................................... 7 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 11 Page | 3 Chapter 1: Overview of current situation ..................................................................................... 13 Global context ....................................................................................................................... 13 The Indian context ................................................................................................................. 14 Power sector .......................................................................................................................... 19 Resource availability .............................................................................................................. 25 Chapter 2: India energy technology strategies and development activities ................................ 41 India’s energy policies ........................................................................................................... 41 India’s current and planned technology development activities ............................................ 46 Chapter 3: Power sector scenarios in India .................................................................................. 59 Electricity demand projections .............................................................................................. 59 Power capacity and generation projections .......................................................................... 61 Scenario variants for the Indian power sector ...................................................................... 64 Investment needs .................................................................................................................. 66 Conclusions: Towards a power sector decarbonisation strategy ............................................ 68 Annex A: Regional results of the BLUE Map Scenario ................................................................... 71 Annex B: The IEA power sector model for India ........................................................................... 73 Annex C: Abbreviations and units ................................................................................................. 75 Annex D: References ..................................................................................................................... 79 List of figures Figure ES.1: Contribution of emission reduction options on a global level, 2010‐50 ..................... 11 Figure 1.1: Reduction of CO2 emissions in the BLUE Map Scenario by sector, 2010‐50 ................ 13 Figure 1.2: Total primary energy supply in India ............................................................................ 16 Figure 1.3: Total final energy consumption in India ....................................................................... 16 Figure 1.4: Final electricity demand in India by sector and by region in 2006/07 .......................... 18 Figure 1.5: India’s electricity use breakdown in commercial and residential buildings ................. 18 Figure 1.6: Development of total installed capacity in India .......................................................... 20 Figure 1.7: Age structure of existing power capacity ..................................................................... 20 Figure 1.8: India’s electrical generation capacity and gross generation, 2007/08 ......................... 21 Figure 1.9: Transmission capacities among India’s five regional grids at the end of 2008............. 24 Figure 1.10: Major coalfields and mining centres in India .............................................................. 27 Figure 1.11: Regional distribution of CO2 storage potentials in geographical model analysis ....... 30 Figure 1.12: Regional distribution of existing hydropower capacity and remaining resources ............ 33 Figure 1.13: Regional distribution of India’s onshore wind resources ........................................... 37 Figure 1.14: Regional distribution of geothermal resources .......................................................... 38 Figure 2.1: Possible scenario for electricity generation mix in India’s Integrated Energy Policy ... 46 Technology Development Prospects for the Indian Power Sector © OECD/IEA 2011 Figure 2.2: Regional distribution of existing coal capacity in India and planned UMPPs ............... 47 Figure 2.3: Regional distribution of existing gas capacity in India .................................................. 50 Figure 2.4: Existing and planned nuclear capacity in India ............................................................. 51 Figure 2.5: Existing and planned nuclear capacity in India ............................................................. 53 Figure 2.6: Existing biomass capacity in India ................................................................................. 54 Page | 4 Figure 2.7: Existing wind capacity in India ...................................................................................... 55 Figure 3.1: Electricity demand projections 2007‐50 ....................................................................... 60 Figure 3.2: Power capacities by region in the BLUE Map Scenario, 2050 ....................................... 63 Figure 3.3: Electricity demand projections for India in the power sector variants, 2007‐2050 ..... 65 Figure B.1: Map of India showing simulation model structure ...................................................... 73 Figure B.2: Map of India: distances in kilometres ........................................................................... 74 List of tables Table 1.1: High‐level energy indicators for the world and four regions, 2007 ............................... 15 Table 1.2: Indian renewable power generation capacities, 31 March 2010 .................................. 22 Table 1.3: Proven fossil energy reserves in India, China, OECD Europe, the United States and the world ..................................................................................................... 26 Table 1.4: Renewable energy resource potentials ........................................................................