FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK MAURITANIA A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. E-mail: TEL: (222) 25 39 18 FAX: (222) 25 39 18 [email protected] MONTHLY REPORT FOR FEBRUARY 2002 RAPPORT MENSUEL DU MOIS DE FEVRIER 2002 This report, prepared in conjunction with the Mauritanian Office of the World Food Program, covers the period from January 23, 2002 to February 28, 2002. Summary Storm damage in the Trarza, Brakna, and Gorgol regions from January 9-11 has exacerbated crop production shortfalls, forcing disaster victims to alter their traditional lifestyles. Mauritania needs to find way to make up this year's production shortfall, estimated at 165,298 metric tons (MT) as of October 2001, and to handle the fall out from the January storms. As of February 20, losses of stock animals linked to these storms are estimated at 89,720 sheep and goats, 14,720 head of cattle, and 1,011 camels. These preliminary figures could go even higher since, according to herders, the new vegetative growth emerging in the wake of the January rains is beginning to dry up and grazing animals are having problems digesting the dry plants. There is also extensive damage to irrigated crops in the harvesting stage and to stockpiled rice crops. Adding up estimates of losses by regional agricultural services, aggregate losses could be as much as 33% of nationwide rice production, 13% of total "walo" or flood recession crop production, and 7% of bottomland crop production in Aftout. Conditions in dammed areas of Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, and Assaba are predictable, but area farmers are keeping their guard up in the face of heavy pressure from the large animal population. Delivered aid is inadequate to meet the needs of disaster victims, and the food situation of farm families, which was already precarious in the wake of poor rainfed ("dieri") and irrigated crop performance, is steadily deteriorating. Herders who, up until this point, had been enjoying good grazing conditions, suddenly found themselves in the same predicament as the farm population in the wake of massive losses of livestock (particularly small stock animals). Many herders raising small stock animals have taken to migratory routes previously reserved for cattle and mixed herds (cattle and sheep). For herders throughout the entire southwestern part of the country looking to safeguard their remaining capital, seasonal migration is no longer simply a stock management system, but has become a survival strategy. The destinations of choice are southeastern Gorgol and Guidimakha. However, in all likelihood, larger stock animals will move on into Mali. Bottomland crops in the eastern regions of the country (Assaba and Hodh) are in the heading and early maturation stages of the growing cycle. Given the current stage of development of these crops, farmers in this area are expecting near-normal yields (the norm for this part of the country is 0.8 MT/ha). However, large bird populations in these areas pose a serious threat to crop production. The only grazing areas still in good condition are in Hodh El Chargui and the eastern portion of Assaba. Brush fires in Hodh El Gharbi have seriously weakened the carrying capacity of range areas in Tintane and Kobonni Departments, forcing local herders to hasten the start of their seasonal treks. Traditional grain prices continue to rise despite ongoing emergency relief programs. The volumes of wheat injected into markets in disaster areas are simply not large enough to control price hikes. Prices in urban areas, which had leveled off over the course of January, have since rebounded, despite the opening of retail outlets by the National Import and Export Company (SONIMEX) selling grain at subsidized prices. I. NATURAL CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION FACTORS I A. RAINFALL Sand storms throughout the southwest coming on the heels of the January rains have engulfed new herbaceous plant growth in disaster areas, weakening their carrying capacity. The cold winds sweeping these areas have been responsible for increasing numbers of already seriously enfeebled animals developing pulmonary problems. I B. GRAZING CONDITIONS Grazing conditions throughout the entire southwestern part of the country (the southern Trarza and Brakna regions and northwestern Gorgol) have rapidly deteriorated in the wake of the rains that pelted the area January 9-11. Withering grasslands have begun to rot and new vegetative growth from the germination of falling seeds at the end of the rainy season is so dry by now that it is a danger to grazing animals. Overgrazing is rampant in grazing areas in good condition in the south and southeast along the Malian border, from the southwestern part of Selibaby Department in Guidimakha to the southeastern part of Bassikounou Department in Hodh El Chargui. These areas, used to accommodating only animal herds from regions with structural fodder deficits (Tagant, Adrar) at this time of year, are being besieged by animals surviving untimely winter rainstorms in the Trarza, Brakna, and Gorgol regions of the country. Herders from Tintane and Kobonni Departments have already crossed into Mali. This transit area for migratory herds heading into Mali does not normally accommodate migratory herders and their animals from other regions of the country until the beginning of May. Conditions are such that it is difficult to establish regular patterns of migration as migratory movements by herders become increasingly erratic. This trend is marked by stepped-up short- term migration to: 1) keep up with demand on the milk market, requiring that they remain close to points of sale; 2) benefit from aid handouts to storm victims, requiring that they remain close to seats of local government;, and 3) meet their needs for pasture, requiring that they travel longer distances. Herders are dividing their herds into different units and engaging in rotational migration, feeding the momentarily fixed or nonmigrating unit with feed purchased with part of their income from milk sales. It is difficult to accurately assess the number of animals lost by herders in disaster areas as a result of the January storms, as the after-effects of storm-related ailments continue to claim the lives of small stock animals (Table 1). Moreover, many migratory herders away from their home bases have been overlooked by assessment missions, resulting in their losses not getting recorded. Table 1: Updated assessment of storm-related losses as of February 20, 2002 REGION SHEEP & GOATS CATTLE CAMELS TRARZA 35,300 4,654 103 BRAKNA 46,800 8,264 891 GORGOL* 7,620 1,802 17 TOTAL 89,720 14,720 1,011 Source: Local emergency response committees/Food Security Commission (CSA)/FEWS NET. Local emergency response committees are made up of government officials, mayors, and heads of local agricultural services. I C. PRODUCTION FACTORS BY TYPE OF FARMING SYSTEM The January rains caused extensive damage to upland, "walo" (flood recession), and bottomland crops in the heading stage, as well as to vegetable crops. Combined losses are estimated at 15 percent of corresponding harvest forecasts (see Table 2). In contrast, the rains benefited crops in the height-growth stage, strengthening the water balance of area soils and driving away many crop pests. A number of farmers in the Senegal River Valley are preparing to begin planting hot off-season crops, but are having problems securing necessary inputs and are concerned about wandering animals. The deterioration in grazing conditions has forced migratory herders to hasten the start of their seasonal treks. Bottomland crops: After bringing in their harvests of rainfed bottomland crops, farmers in Aftout promptly began harvesting upland crops planted in dammed areas in early November. Yields from these crops, whose submersion times, like those of rainfed bottomland crops, were extremely short, were mediocre at best. Farmers are not expecting much in the way of yields from crops planted in lowland areas, which are showing good progress in the wake of the January rains. Large animal and bird populations are putting heavy pressure on the small surface areas under these crops. Pink stalk borer (Sesamia Clamistis) infestation levels for crops in the maturation stage of the growing cycle are low. However, infestation levels of crops in the heading and milk grain stage are quite high. A cross-sectional study of data from agricultural services in Monguel, Magta-Lahjar, M’Bout, and Aleg Departments indicates a 7 percent slippage from preliminary harvest forecasts for these crops issued back in November by the FAO/CILSS/Mauritanian government mission. Crops in dammed areas of Assaba, Hodh El Chargui, and Hodh El Gharbi are showing good progress, but animal populations in these areas are extremely large and farmers are forced to guard their fields around the clock. Irrigated crops: By now, all harvests of irrigated crops have been brought in. Production shortfalls from shrinkages in cropped areas and lower yields were exacerbated by the destruction of a portion of the harvest (non-warehoused crops, crops stored outside in preparation for hulling) by the January rains. Losses are estimated at 33 percent of nationwide production. The Trarza region suffered the heaviest losses of both rice and vegetable crops. This is turning out to be an especially hard year for the countless farmers who decided to forego planting "walo" or flood recession crops to concentrate on truck farming activities. A number of farmers are endeavoring to grow hot off-season crops, but their efforts are being thwarted by a lack of credit. Their main fear is the destruction of their fields by wandering animals. Walo (flood recession) crops: "Walo" crops are doing poorly everywhere. The countless fields of withered crops abandoned by farmers are expected to cut output by nearly 13 percent compared with previously issued forecasts. Crops planted in November are well into the maturation stage of the growing cycle, but their heads remain small.