Earthquake Insurance of Rural Community in Yunnan Province: Investigation on Willingness of Householders and Pilot Research on Insurance Rate

Home , Dali City, Eryuan County, Ludian County, Suijiang County, Tengchong, Weixin County

Kunming University of Science and Technology

2017.12.31

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Earthquake Insurance of Rural Community in Yunnan Province: Investigation on Willingness of Householders and Pilot Research on Insurance Rate ...... 1 Introduction ...... 1 Research Background ...... 1 Earthquake insurance status quo at home and abroad ...... 2 Content and Significance ...... 6 Research objectives ...... 8 Part 1 Earthquake Insurance of Rural Community in Yunnan Province: Investigation on Willingness of Householders ...... 10 Chapter 1 An Survey on Yunnan Earthquake Insurance Pilot Project ...... 11 1.1 The Basic Situation of Yunnan Earthquake Insurance ...... 11 1.2 The Characteristics of Yunnan Earthquake Insurance ...... 13 1.3 Problems in Earthquake Insurance ...... 15 1.4 Suggestions for Improving the Catastrophe Insurance System ...... 16 1.5 The Main Content and Significance of Researching Catastrophe Insurance System ...... 18 1.6 The Potential Application in Other Countries ...... 19 Chapter 2 Study Design on the Willingness of Earthquake Insurance ...... 22 2.1 Sample Selection ...... 22 2.2 Research Forms ...... 25 Chapter 3 Analysis of the results from the survey ...... 27 3.1 Methodology ...... 27 3.1.1 Selection Principles of Farmers ...... 27 3.1.2 Measuring Method of Farmers Demand and Willingness to Pay for Earthquake Insurance ...... 27 3.1.3 Data Analysis Method ...... 28 3.2 Survey of farmers' distribution ...... 29 3.3 The Basic Conditions of the Farmer ...... 29 3.4 Rural Housing Structure ...... 33 3.5 The Risk Perception Ability of Farmers ...... 36 3.6 The Impact of Government Behaviors on Earthquake Insurance Demands...... 41 3.7 Farmers’ Earthquake Insurance Demands and Willingness to Pay ...... 43 3.8 Analysis of statistical Data ...... 45 3.8.1 Regression Analysis of Parameter ...... 45 3.8.2 Regression Analysis of Nonparametric ...... 46 3.8.3 ACE Regression Deals with Survey Questionnaire Data ...... 47 Part 2 Catastrophe Risk Model of Urban and Rural Residential in Earthquake ...... 57 Chapter 4 Earthquake Risk Model ...... 58 4.1 Seismic Hazard Analysis ...... 58 4.2 Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazard in Eryuan County, Dali County ...... 62 4.2.1 Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazard in NiujieTown ...... 63 4.2.2 Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazard in SanYing Town ...... 65 4.2.3 Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazard in Bihu Town ...... 68

4.2.4 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Yousuo Town ...... 71 4.2.5 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Dengchuan Town ...... 74 4.2.6 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Fengyu Town ...... 77 4.2.7 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Qiaohou Town ...... 79 4.2.8 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Liantie Town ...... 82 4.2.9 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Xishan Town ...... 85 Chapter 5 Earthquake Vulnerability Model of Building ...... 88 5.1 Seismic Vulnerability of Structure ...... 88 5.2 Seismic Vulnerability Matrix of Buildings in Yunnan Province ...... 90 5.3 Seismic Vulnerability Curve of Buildings in Yunnan Province ...... 93 Chapter 6 Forecasting Model of Building Vulnerability in Eryuan County, Dali Prefecture ...... 98 6.1 Seismic Hazard Analysis Results ...... 99 6.2 Estimation Model of Housing Construction in Eryuan County ...... 101 6.2.1 Calculation Example of Earthquake Damage Prediction Model for Housing Construction in Eryuan County ...... 101 6.2.2 Earthquake Damage Prediction Model of Township Buildings in Eryuan County ...... 104 Conclusion and Suggestion ...... 121 References ...... 123 Appendix ...... 126 Appendix 1 Questionnaire ...... 126 Appendix 2 Field research ...... 130 FieldResearch in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture...... 130 The Field Research in Honghe Hani Autonomous Prefecture...... 132 The Field Research in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture ...... 134 The Field Research in Baoshan ...... 136 The Field Research in Zhaotong ...... 137 Appendix 3 Housing situation ...... 137 Basically intact ...... 137 Slight damage ...... 139 Security Risks Exist ...... 140 The Strengthening of Rural Houses ...... 143

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 3.3- 1 MALE FEMALE RATIO ...... 30 FIGURE 3.3- 2 PROPORTION OF ALL AGES ...... 31 FIGURE 3.3- 3 HOUSEHOLD INCOME(RMB) ...... 31 FIGURE 3.3- 4 THE LEVEL OF EDUCATION OF THE SUBJECT ...... 31 FIGURE 3.3- 5 FAMILY POPULATION STRUCTURE ...... 32 FIGURE 3.3- 6 INCOME TO MEET HOUSEHOLD EXPENSES ...... 32 FIGURE 3.3- 7 ASSESSMENT OF FAMILY STATUS ...... 32

FIGURE 3.5- 1 RESIDENTS' EARTHQUAKE EXPERIENCE ...... 39 FIGURE 3.5- 2 THE EXTENT OF FEAR OF EARTHQUAKES ...... 39 FIGURE 3.5- 3 WHETHER TO UNDERSTAND THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS ...... 39 FIGURE 3.5- 4 WHETHER THEY HAVE PREPARED EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES ...... 40 FIGURE 3.5- 5 THE NEED FOR GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES TO REBUILD AFTER THE DISASTER ...... 40

FIGURE 3.6- 1 KNOWLEDGE PUBLICITY FOR DISASTER PREVENTION AND DISASTER REDUCTION ...... 42 FIGURE 3.6- 2 STRENGTHENING OF HOUSING CONSTRUCTION ...... 42 FIGURE 3.6- 3 HAS THE GOVERNMENT PROVIDED AN EMERGENCY PACKAGE ...... 43 FIGURE 3.6- 4 GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE AFTER THE DISASTER ...... 43

FIGURE 3.7- 1 FARMERS' WILLINGNESS TO INSURE ...... 44 FIGURE 3.7- 2 POLICY FARMHOUSE EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE MAXIMUM WILLINGNESS TO PAY ...... 45 FIGURE 3.7- 3 COMMERCIAL EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE MAXIMUM WILLINGNESS TO PAY ...... 45

FIGURE 3.8- 1 THE PROCEDURE OF OBTAINING RS RELATIONSHIP ...... 47 FIGURE 3.8- 2 THE WEIGHT OF THE INPUT VARIABLE X TO THE OUTPUT VARIABLE Y1 ...... 52 FIGURE 3.8- 3 THE WEIGHT OF THE INPUT VARIABLE X TO THE OUTPUT VARIABLE Y2 ...... 52 FIGURE 3.8- 4 THE WEIGHT OF THE INPUT VARIABLE X TO THE OUTPUT VARIABLE Y3 ...... 52 FIGURE 3.8- 5 THE WEIGHT OF THE INPUT VARIABLE X TO THE OUTPUT VARIABLE Y4 ...... 53 FIGURE 3.8- 6 THE WEIGHT OF THE INPUT VARIABLE X TO THE OUTPUT VARIABLE Y5 ...... 53

FIGURE 4.2- 1 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY OF PEAK ACCELERATION AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF NIUJIE TOWN ...... 65 FIGURE 4.2- 2 ANNUAL INCREASE PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF THE PEAK ACCELERATION OF SANYING TOWN ...... 68 FIGURE 4.2- 3 ANNUAL INCREASE PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF THE PEAK ACCELERATION OF CIBIHU TOWN ...... 71 FIGURE 4.2- 4 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY OF PEAK ACCELERATION AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF YOUSUO TOWN ...... 73 FIGURE 4.2- 5 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY OF PEAK ACCELERATION AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 76 FIGURE 4.2- 6 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION OF FENGYU TOWN . 79

FIGURE 4.2- 7 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY OF PEAK ACCELERATION AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 82 FIGURE 4.2- 8 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY OF PEAK ACCELERATION AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF LIANTIE TOWN ...... 84 FIGURE 4.2- 9 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY OF PEAK ACCELERATION AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF XISHAN TOWN ...... 87

FIGURE 5.2- 1 FRAME STRUCTURE VULNERABILITY MATRIX BAR GRAPH (%) ...... 91 FIGURE 5.2- 2 BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE VULNERABILITY MATRIX BAR GRAPH (%) ...... 91 FIGURE 5.2- 3 BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE VULNERABILITY MATRIX BAR GRAPH (%) ...... 92 FIGURE 5.2- 4 CIVIL STRUCTURE VULNERABILITY MATRIX BAR GRAPH (%) ...... 92

FIGURE 5.3- 1 DIFFERENT DAMAGE STATE AND VULNERABILITY CURVE ...... 93 FIGURE 5.3- 2 FRAME STRUCTURE VULNERABILITY CURVE...... 94 FIGURE 5.3- 3 BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE VULNERABILITY CURVE ...... 95 FIGURE 5.3- 4 BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE VULNERABILITY CURVE ...... 96 FIGURE 5.3- 5 CIVIL STRUCTURE VULNERABILITY CURVE ...... 96

FIGURE 6.1- 1 MONTHLY SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE CURVE OF ACCELERATION IN CATTLE STREET ...... 100

FIGURE 6.2- 1 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 102 FIGURE 6.2- 2 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 103 FIGURE 6.2- 3 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 103 FIGURE 6.2- 4 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 104 FIGURE 6.2- 5 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 104 FIGURE 6.2- 6 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 105 FIGURE 6.2- 7 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 106 FIGURE 6.2- 8 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF CIVIL STRUCTURE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 106 FIGURE 6.2- 9 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN CIBI LAKE TOWN...... 107 FIGURE 6.2- 10 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN CIBI LAKE TOWN ...... 107 FIGURE 6.2- 11 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN CIBI LAKE TOWN ...... 108 FIGURE 6.2- 12 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF THE RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN CIBI LAKE TOWN ...... 108 FIGURE 6.2- 13 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF THE RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN YOUSUO TOWN ...... 109 FIGURE 6.2- 14 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN YOUSUO TOWN ...... 109 FIGURE 6.2- 15 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN YOUSUO TOWN ...... 110 FIGURE 6.2- 16 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN YOUSUO TOWN ...... 110 FIGURE 6.2- 17 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 111 FIGURE 6.2- 18 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 111 FIGURE 6.2- 19 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 112 FIGURE 6.2- 20 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 112 FIGURE 6.2- 21 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN FENGYU TOWN ...... 113 FIGURE 6.2- 22 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN FENGYU TOWN ...... 113 FIGURE 6.2- 23 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN FENGYU TOWN ...... 114

FIGURE 6.2- 24 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN FENGYU TOWN ...... 114 FIGURE 6.2- 25 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 115 FIGURE 6.2- 26 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 115 FIGURE 6.2- 27 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 116 FIGURE 6.2- 28 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 116 FIGURE 6.2- 29 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN LIANTIE TOWN ...... 117 FIGURE 6.2- 30 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN LIANTIE TOWN ...... 117 FIGURE 6.2- 31 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN LIANTIE TOWN ...... 118 FIGURE 6.2- 32 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN LIANTIE TOWN ...... 118 FIGURE 6.2- 33 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN XISHAN TOWN ...... 119 FIGURE 6.2- 34 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN XISHAN TOWN ...... 119 FIGURE 6.2- 35 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN XISHAN TOWN ...... 120 FIGURE 6.2- 36 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN XISHAN TOWN ...... 120

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 3.2- 1 DISTRIBUTION OF FARMERS SURVEYED ...... 29

TABLE 3.4- 1 BASIC SITUATION OF FARMHOUSE STRUCTURE IN RESEARCH AREA ...... 35 TABLE 3.4- 2 SURVEY OF EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE OF RURAL RESIDENTS IN YUNNAN PROVINCE ...... 36

TABLE 3.8- 1 EACH VARIABLE DEFINITION ...... 48 TABLE 3.8- 2 SUMMARY STATISTICS ...... 50 TABLE 3.8- 3 EACH INPUT CORRESPONDS TO THE WEIGHT OF THE OUTPUT ...... 51

TABLE 4.2- 1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARTHQUAKE VIBRATION AND EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY OF CLASS II SITE ...... 63 TABLE 4.2- 2 THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE MAIN POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO THE RISK OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARD OF NIUJIE TOWN ...... 63 TABLE 4.2- 3 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION VALUE OF NIUJIE TOWN ...... 64 TABLE 4.2- 4 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE OF NIUJIE TOWN ...... 65 TABLE 4.2- 5 CONTRIBUTION OF THE MAIN POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PROBABILITY OF SAN YING TOWN ...... 66 TABLE 4.2- 6 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION VALUE OF SUN YING TOWN ...... 66 TABLE 4.2- 7 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 68 TABLE 4.2- 8 CONTRIBUTION OF THE MAIN POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO THE SEISMIC HAZARD PROBABILITY OF CIBIHU 69 TABLE 4.2- 9 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION VALUES OF CIBIHU TOWN ...... 69 TABLE 4.2- 10 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF CIBIHU TOWN ...... 71 TABLE 4.2- 11 CONTRIBUTION OF MAJOR POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PROBABILITY OF YOUSUO TOWN ...... 72 TABLE 4.2- 12 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION IN YOUSUO TOWN . 72 TABLE 4.2- 13 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEISMIC INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF YOUSUO TOWN ...... 74 TABLE 4.2- 14 CONTRIBUTION OF MAJOR POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PROBABILITY OF DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 74 TABLE 4.2- 15 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAKACCELERATION IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 75 TABLE 4.2- 16 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEISMIC INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 76 TABLE 4.2- 17 CONTRIBUTION OF MAJOR POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PROBABILITY OF FENGYU TOWN ...... 77 TABLE 4.2- 18 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION OF FENGYU TOWN . 78 TABLE 4.2- 19 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEISMIC INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF FENGYU TOWN ...... 79 TABLE 4.2- 20 CONTRIBUTION OF MAJOR POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PROBABILITY OF QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 80 TABLE 4.2- 21 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY OF PEAK ACCELERATIONAND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 80 TABLE 4.2- 22 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEISMIC INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE IN QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 82

TABLE 4.2- 23 CONTRIBUTION OF MAJOR POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PROBABILITY OF LIANTIE TOWN ...... 83 TABLE 4.2- 24 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION IN LIANTIE TOWN .. 83 TABLE 4.2- 25 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEISMIC INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF LIANTIE TOWN ...... 85 TABLE 4.2- 26 CONTRIBUTION OF MAJOR POTENTIAL SOURCE AREA TO EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PROBABILITY OF XISHAN TOWN ...... 85 TABLE 4.2- 27 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION IN XISHAN TOWN .. 86 TABLE 4.2- 28 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEISMIC INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF XISHAN TOWN ...... 87

TABLE 5.1- 1 LOSS RATIO OF NON-SIMPLE HOUSES（%） ...... 90 TABLE 5.1- 2 LOSS RATIO OF SIMPLE HOUSE（%） ...... 90

TABLE 5.2- 1 VULNERABILITY MATRIX OF FRAME STRUCTURE BUILDINGS BASED ON SPECIFIC INTENSITY（%） ...... 90 TABLE 5.2- 2 THE VULNERABILITY MATRIX OF BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE BUILDINGS BASED ON SPECIFIC INTENSITY （%） ...... 91 TABLE 5.2- 3 THE VULNERABILITY MATRIX OF BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE BUILDINGS BASED ON SPECIFIC INTENSITY（%） 91 TABLE 5.2- 4 THE VULNERABILITY MATRIX OF CIVIL STRUCTURE BUILDINGS BASED ON SPECIFIC INTENSITY（%） ...... 92

TABLE 5.3- 1 THE DAMAGE CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF THE FRAME STRUCTURE UNDER DIFFERENT SEISMIC INTENSITIES （%） ...... 94 TABLE 5.3- 2 THE DAMAGE CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF THE BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE UNDER DIFFERENT SEISMIC （%） ...... 94 TABLE 5.3- 3 THE DAMAGE CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF THE BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE UNDER DIFFERENT SEISMIC（%） ...... 95 TABLE 5.3- 4 THE DAMAGE CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF THE CIVIL STRUCTURE UNDER DIFFERENT SEISMIC（%） ...... 96

TABLE 6.1- 1 ANNUAL SURPASSING PROBABILITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF PEAK ACCELERATION VALUES OF NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 99 TABLE 6.1- 2 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEISMIC INTENSITY AND ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 100

TABLE 6.2- 1 RELATIONSHIP OF ANNUAL INCIDENCE OF NIUJIE TOWNSHIP EARTHQUAKE INTERVAL ...... 101 TABLE 6.2- 2 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 102 TABLE 6.2- 3 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 102 TABLE 6.2- 4 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 103 TABLE 6.2- 5 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN NIUJIE TOWNSHIP ...... 103 TABLE 6.2- 6 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 104 TABLE 6.2- 7 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 105 TABLE 6.2- 8 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 105 TABLE 6.2- 9 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN SANYING TOWN ...... 106 TABLE 6.2- 10 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN CIBI LAKE TOWN ...... 106 TABLE 6.2- 11 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN CIBI LAKE TOWN ...... 107 TABLE 6.2- 12 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN CIBI LAKE TOWN ...... 107 TABLE 6.2- 13 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF THE RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN CIBI LAKE TOWN ...... 108 TABLE 6.2- 14 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF THE RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN YOUSUO TOWN ...... 108

TABLE 6.2- 15 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN YOUSUO TOWN ...... 109 TABLE 6.2- 16 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN YOUSUO TOWN ...... 109 TABLE 6.2- 17 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN YOUSUO TOWN ...... 110 TABLE 6.2- 18 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 110 TABLE 6.2- 19 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 111 TABLE 6.2- 20 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 111 TABLE 6.2- 21 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN DENGCHUAN TOWN ...... 112 TABLE 6.2- 22 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN FENGYU TOWN ...... 112 TABLE 6.2- 23 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN FENGYU TOWN ...... 113 TABLE 6.2- 24 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN FENGYU TOWN ...... 113 TABLE 6.2- 25 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN FENGYU TOWN ...... 114 TABLE 6.2- 26 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 114 TABLE 6.2- 27 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 115 TABLE 6.2- 28 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN QIAOHOU TOWN ...... 115 TABLE 6.2- 29 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN QIAOHOU TOWN...... 116 TABLE 6.2- 30 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN LIANTIE TOWN ...... 116 TABLE 6.2- 31 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN LIANTIE TOWN...... 117 TABLE 6.2- 32 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN LIANTIE TOWN ...... 117 TABLE 6.2- 33 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN LIANTIE TOWN ...... 118 TABLE 6.2- 34 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL FRAME STRUCTURE IN XISHAN TOWN ...... 118 TABLE 6.2- 35 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-CONCRETE STRUCTURE IN XISHAN TOWN ...... 119 TABLE 6.2- 36 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL BRICK-WOOD STRUCTURE IN XISHAN TOWN...... 119 TABLE 6.2- 37 EXPECTED DAMAGE RATIO MATRIX OF RURAL CIVIL STRUCTURE IN XISHAN TOWN ...... 120

Introduction

Research Background

Yunnan is one of the most violent areas of modern crustal movements and strong earthquakes in mainland China and around the world. It has been affected by the double dynamic of the Indian plate along the Yunnan-Burma to the eastward seduction and the Qinghai-Tibet block from north to south. The earthquake activity of Yunnan is characteristics by high frequency, strong intensity, wide distribution and heavy damage of disaster [1]. According to the statistics, Yunnan accounts for only 4% of the country's land area, but released more than 20% of China's earthquake energy. Yunnan has devastative and strong destructive earthquakes in the region which accounts for 84% of its total land area. Only about 20 years, Yunnan Province and its adjacent areas occurred destructive earthquakes of different levels more than 80 times, the average of annual incidence in destructive earthquakes is 4 times / year and the vast majority of destructive earthquakes caused by the direct economic losses of more than 100 million RMB scale. From 2000 to the end of 2011, there have been 36 earthquakes in Yunnan, for a relatively calm period, after the Myanmar’s 7.2 earthquake in 2011, Yunnan had into a new round of strong earthquake active period. However, the ability of resistance and decentralization to natural risks of Chinese farmers is still quite limited[2]. Following are the reasons: first, the economic conditions of Chinese farmers are extremely limited; second, compared with the urban residents, the farmers often lives in the area where the disaster happens frequently; third, the housing structure of village is not as good as the stability of urban buildings; finally, farmers are limited by the level of education, the prevention awareness of risks is weak. Based on these, it has great significance for Yunnan province how to make full use the advantages of government and the market configure resources, to solve damage insurance’s compensation issues caused by the earthquake disaster. 1

Earthquake insurance is underwriting the subject of earthquake hazards and earthquake disaster damage, a long-term earthquake prediction prevention method, also the method for treatment and management of dangerous[3]. Its essence is the individual insured person's earthquake damage to all the insured to share. As an effective way of capital reserve and financial compensation, earthquake insurance can be accomplish social mutual aid, reduce the national economic burden and improve the ability of earthquake disaster reduction. The policy earthquake insurance is an important part of the national disaster prevention and mitigation system. It has three functions: economic compensation, capital financing and social management. It will play an increasingly important role in disaster prevention and mitigation, stabilizing society and promoting post-disaster reconstruction[4].

Earthquake insurance status quo at home and abroad

At present, with world's economic losses and insurance coverage caused by earthquake, the economically developed countries and developing countries have significant differences in earthquake insurance payment. This is not only the gap of economy, concept, consciousness of insurance between different countries, but also affected by other factors such as the level of earthquake insurance construction and the degree of popularity of earthquake insurance. In the view of the huge potential risks posed by the earthquake disaster to the social and economic life, there are more than a dozen countries in the world to establish a government-supported earthquake insurance system to provide corresponding insurance protection for the residents' buildings. Especially in several typical earthquakes, insurance has played a role in reducing the economic losses for the affected people[5]. (1) New Zealand The New Zealand earthquake insurance system is one of the earliest established in the world. It is also one of the most successful disaster insurance systems in the world. Its main feature is the state to establish a legal form in line with national conditions of the multi-channel catastrophe insurance dispersion system, taking the road combining

2 government participation with market operation, as much as possible to spread the catastrophe risk. (2) Japan Japan's earthquake insurance system has worked for more than 40 years as a major and irreplaceable role after several major earthquake disaster tests. The characteristics of the Japanese earthquake insurance system are: earthquake insurance co-operation by the government and non-life insurance companies instead of pursuing the profit; people can participate voluntarily instead of non-mandatory. The commercial insurance companies co-sponsored the formation of the Japan Earthquake Reinsurance Company. At the same time, the Government bears the corresponding risk liability, the formation of insurance companies, reinsurance companies, and shares the risk of responsibility system. The object of earthquake insurance is residential residents and life-related property. The earthquake insurance cannot be purchased separately but must be in the purchase of residential fire insurance, residential insurance, general fire insurance and other risks, as an additional risk to buyers. In terms of rate determination, the insurance companies are required to implement a uniform rate standard. The premium rate is determined by factors such as seismic resistance, fortification performance and construction age differences. The corresponding tax support is provided[6]. (3) The United States US earthquake insurance is mainly responsible for the private insurance companies and the California Seismological Bureau. The resident can join insure voluntarily both as a separate earthquake insurance can also be used as a fire insurance additional insurance, mainly for residential individual housing, insurance mainly by the earthquake caused by the loss of housing and house items. The earthquake caused by fire, explosion, theft and other losses do not provide protection[7]. (4) The status of domestic earthquake insurance China has been carrying out theoretical research and practice exploration for the earthquake insurance system, forming a lot of valuable experience[3]. From the perspective of property insurance, China's earthquake insurance system has experienced the following stages of exploration. 3

The first stage: the early 50s of the 20th century, in accordance with the decision of the Central People's Government of the State Council, the People's Insurance Company of China is responsible for specific promotions, state organs, state enterprises, cooperators, the vast majority of property are for property compulsory insurance, which belongs to the basic Limitation of Liability. At the same time, some provinces also provide the risk protection of earthquake for agricultural production. During this period, China had a wide supply of earthquake insurance. However, due to historical reasons, in 1959 China completely closed the domestic insurance business, earthquake insurance system construction so stagnant for more than 20 years. The second stage: in 1979, the State Council decided to gradually restore the domestic business of insurance. With the strong support from the government, the earthquake insurance system has been developed rapidly. For the enterprises and institutions in China, residents of families, farmers of engineering insurance, property insurance and agricultural insurance are all including the earthquake disaster risk protection, earthquake insurance to achieve a sufficient supply. At the time of a series of earthquake disasters, earthquake insurance also played a role. The main problem during this period is the weak consciousness of insured and the coverage is low. The third stage: in 1996, taking into account the lack of scientific actuarial basis for China's earthquake insurance business the People's Bank of China decided to include "all losses caused by the earthquake" in the vast majority of property insurance exemption clause to ensure the safe operation of the insurance company. Yunnan earthquake insurance Business is subject to strict restrictions while the relevant earthquake insurance research work accelerated. The fourth stage: on the basis of earthquake insurance research has achieved a certain result, taking the needs of earthquake insurance into account. In January 2000, China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice, for major projects and lifeline projects, in the case of risk control, allowing expansion of earthquake liability. In October 2001, China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Corporate Property Insurance to expand the guiding principles in regard to the responsibility of earthquake ", to further relax the underwriting restrictions, and in the coverage, reinsurance 4 arrangements, financial management and other aspects of the regulatory requirements. At the same time, the research work on earthquake insurance of family property is also actively promoting, in 2003, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission completed and submitted the "establishment of China's family property earthquake insurance research report", has been highly valued by the State Council, the Government actively support the development of earthquake insurance, and promote the basic research work of earthquake insurance system. At present, China has no real the business of earthquake insurance. But a small number of domestic insurance products began to design the responsibility of earthquake risk, which marks the earthquake insurance business in China has begun to take shape. Such as China Life and Heng On Life in 2008 has launched the earthquake liability- related personal insurance, which makes the insured if they get the personal injury in the earthquake disaster, then they will receive a certain amount of personal injury compensation. At the end of 2012, led by the Yunnan provincial government, approved by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, China PICC Property Insurance, Cheng Tai Property and Insurance and China Reinsurance three insurance companies in Yunnan Chuxiong to jointly carry out the pilot work of the policy-based earthquake insurance business for agricultural housing. August 20, 2015, Dali City, Yunnan Province, the policy of agricultural land earthquake pilot ceremony held in Kunming, Yunnan. In Yunnan, about 50% of the rural housing for the civil structure, these houses are often a major earthquake disaster, earthquake catastrophe, which also makes the rural areas, farmers become the most in need of earthquake protection of the region and groups. To ensure that the insurance program can be recognized by the government, the people and the community, Chengtai Insurance and Dali state government and other relevant departments within a year of nine rounds of face-to-face communication and eight modifications of scheme. Finally, the scheme begins with the highest risk and most expensive earthquake disaster of agricultural housing, which guarantees both the property and the injured. Dali State Bureau on August 7 officially signed the Dali state of Yunnan Province policy of agricultural insurance earthquake insurance policy, Cheng Tai Insurance issued a policy 5 and at the same time to the four co-insurance companies issued a single order, officially for the Dali state 82.43 million rural housing and 356.92 million urban and rural residents to provide 500 million yuan per year earthquake catastrophe insurance protection. The program provides the effective guarantee of insurance for the direct loss of rural houses caused by the earthquake of 5 or more in the pilot area, the cost of restoration and reconstruction and the rescue of residents' death. Rural housing limit of insurance compensation (index insurance) from 28 million Yuan to 420 million Yuan, so that insurance claims in different scales under the file to play a disaster relief role. Resident insurance compensation limit (earthquake disaster relief insurance) per death limit of compensation is 10 million, the cumulative insurance limit of compensation is 80 million Yuan per year. Yunnan Dali state policy of rural housing earthquake insurance pilot in the country to take the lead in the establishment of the earthquake risk liability-based catastrophe insurance system, both consistent with international practice, but also consistent with the national policy guidance; the first to develop magnitude trigger index insurance, with information transparency, rapid claims, low transaction costs, the risk of diversification of the advantages of the first to build a database of earthquake risk, the establishment of cloud housing vulnerability curve in Yunnan, accurately determine the earthquake pure risk rate[8].

Content and Significance

Policy-oriented rural housing earthquake insurance is a government-led mode in Yunnan province, which means that governments present demands and provide partial subsidies to achieve the sharing of risk and policy benefits[8]. The coverage scope is residential housing within rural communities and rural residents. According to international experiences, to expand the participation of the people is not only realistic demand of sharing the government's stress, but also the essential requirements of achieving social management functions for the insurance[9]. Insufficient demand for earthquake insurance is one of the most crucial factors blocking the earthquake catastrophe insurance system. Further study on the influencing factors of catastrophe

6 insurance demand is significant for the next step to develop the catastrophe insurance system in China. In order to explore the issues related to earthquake insurance in rural communities, this project aims to carry out research activities on households' perception of earthquake risk and demand of earthquake insurance in rural communities with backward economy state. Earthquake risk is set as the research object, and the willingness-to-insure(WTI) and willingness-to-pay (WTP) are set as two proxy variables of catastrophe insurance demand, and the rural communities are set as the research samples, on-the-spot investigation research method will be applied to explore the situations and influencing factors of earthquake catastrophe insurance demands. Investigations on the implementing of commercial earthquake insurance in rural communities will be carried out. Effective results as well with measures and references will be provided for other provinces and neighboring countries that are of similar situation to Yunnan, like South Asia, East Asia and other regions, so as to propel the earthquake insurance. Therefore, the Kunming Institute of Technology Task Force in December 2016 in July 2017, in Yunnan Province Insurance Regulatory Bureau, Yunnan Seismological Bureau and Cheng Tai Property Company with the assistance of the organization of ten researchers on the Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture, Honghe Hani Autonomous Prefecture, Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Baoshan City and Zhaotong City to carry out rural earthquake risk and earthquake insurance needs of the field investigation work, a total of more than 1,200 valid questionnaires were collected. The following are problems solved by Task group : First，according to the basic conditions of the farmers, including the gender, age, education level and family income, population structure, etc; second, the living conditions of farmers, including the structure of housing types, housing status, area and reconstruction costs; third, the farmers’ risk perception of the earthquake, the response capacity of risk and the tendency to take measures to prevent risk; fourth, the impact of government actions on farmers' acceptance of earthquake insurance demand; fifth, the demand for earthquake insurance for the earthquake, the highest willingness to pay for earthquake insurance.

On the other hand, due to the fact that earthquake disaster is a rare catastrophe, the number of samples is insufficient to determine the insurance rate, which has caused great difficulties. Yunnan Province, as an earthquake-prone area, has accumulated a lot of earthquake-based data, which would be a useful basis for determining the rural community earthquake insurance rates. Based on those data, our research group has developed preliminary predicting model of seismic vulnerability of rural communities, collected the historical earthquake disaster assessment reports, established seismic vulnerability matrix and seismic vulnerability curve and estimated the earthquake disaster losses at different seismic intensities. Therefore, the research group has studied the model of earthquake risk of Yunnan and the seismic vulnerability model of housing construction. The main jobs are as follows: 1. Probability of peak acceleration in a given area and specific period is given. : The annual incidence of peak acceleration range corresponding to IV-X degree is in the next five to ten years in the nine townships of Eryuan County. Based on the earthquake statistics, the vulnerability matrix and the vulnerability curve of the earthquake-stricken buildings in Yunnan Province are given respectively. Based on the seismic hazard analysis, the risk model of urban and rural residents in Eryuan County is given.

Research objectives

1. Through this field survey, the basic situation of earthquake insurance purchase willingness in rural areas of Yunnan Province was summarized. It was a bit diffused to explore the promotion or implementation of policy-based rural housing earthquake insurance or commercial earthquake insurance in economically backward rural areas. The possibility of the size of the implementation of the corresponding proposal to provide constructive measures. 2. Through the analysis of the survey on the purchase intention of earthquake insurance for rural households in Yunnan Province, the factors that directly affect the purchase intention of farmers are identified. By gradually changing these

8 influencing factors, farmers' willingness to purchase earthquake insurance is changed. 3. Analyze the implementation of the earthquake insurance pilot program in rural China and the claims received by farmers after the earthquake. Through data analysis, the effect of earthquake insurance implementation is obtained. Provide reference for earthquake insurance in East Asia and South Asia. 4. Through the questionnaire form, understand the family's situation, the structure of the house and the basic situation of the farmers' risk perception. Then through the analysis of the survey data, the key factors affecting the purchase of earthquake insurance for the farmers are obtained. 5. Establish an earthquake catastrophe risk model, analyze the seismic hazard and vulnerability of the housing structure, and assess the structural earthquake safety through data comparison. The use of risk assessment data as a preliminary basis for the determination of rural community earthquake insurance premium rates provides theoretical data support for rural earthquake insurance claims in the future.

Part 1 Earthquake Insurance of Rural Community in

Yunnan Province: Investigation on Willingness of Householders

Chapter 1 An Survey on Yunnan Earthquake

Insurance Pilot Project

1.1 The Basic Situation of Yunnan Earthquake Insurance

The Underwriting Situation In August 2015, Dali Prefecture, Yunnan Province, the pilot project of the policy- related rural houses earthquake insurance (hereinafter referred to “Yunnan earthquake insurance”) was officially launched. This project provided an earthquake insurance cover for 0.8243 millions farmhouses and 3.5692 millions urban and rural residents in Dali Prefecture totally, in which the insurance cover for rural houses was 420 millions Yuan, for urban and rural residents was 80 millions Yuan. 32.15 millions annual premium were all financed by the governments, of which the provincial government was 60% and the state and local governments were 40%[10]. The Champion Property and Casualty Insurance Company and other five companies found the Earthquake Insurance Community and signed an underwriting contract for 3 years. The insurance of the subject matter included the main production and living space of the rural residents (including the residents from the rural to urban area) and the urban and rural residents in the insuring area (including the sponsors). Insurance Liability: First, the direct loss of insuring rural houses and the death of urban and rural residents within the insuring area caused by the 5.0 magnitude quake and more serious earthquakes (including landslides, mud slides, collapse, barrier lake, floods, land subsidence, ground fracture, fire, explosion and other secondary disasters). Second, the direct loss of insuring rural houses and the death of urban and rural residents around the insuring area caused by the 5.0 magnitude quake and more serious earthquakes (including landslides, mud slides, collapse, barrier lake, floods, land subsidence, ground fracture, fire, explosion and other secondary disasters). Third, the reconstruction costs resulting from the direct loss of the subject matter because of the

11 insured liability mentioned before (including the infrastructure reconstruction expenditure). Insurance Premiums Raising Mechanism: To embody the concern for people’s livelihood and gradually cultivate the awareness of the modern insurance and financial services in local village, the provincial government, the municipal government and county government would fully cover the cost of the policy-related earthquake insurance premiums during the pilot period. Compensation Modes: Adopting the compensation modes with different levels according to the earthquake magnitudes, starting from 5.0 magnitude quake, a division of every 0.5 magnitude quake (5.0-5.4; 5.5-5.9……above 7.0 magnitude), there are five levels in all. Once reaching to the corresponding magnitude, can the compensation be realized. According to each national earthquake disaster evaluation report, the claim amount of epicenter in surrounding areas was on the basis of the proportion of rural houses earthquake loss in the total earthquake houses loss in insuring area.

The Compensation Status During the pilot period, there were three earthquakes received reparations compensations amounting to 63.5376 millions Yuan. The first compensation was a 5.1 magnitude quake occurred in Changning County, Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, on October 30, 2015, which caused damege to eight villages and towns in Changning County and Longyang District in Baoshan City, and Yongping County in Dali Prefecture, and directly brought a total economic loss of 24.2 thousands Yuan and the houses loss of 166.4 millions Yuan. And there was a house collapsed, 326 houses brokedown seriouly and 626 houses damaged generally, which all led to a direct economic loss of 44.8 millions Yuan in Yongping County, Dali Prefecture. The rural houses erthquake insurance indemnity which received 7.5376 millions Yuan in this erthquake accounted for a proportion of 16.83 in the houses economic loss in Dali Prefecture. This compensation would benefit 953 peasant households and provide an important financial support for the post-disaster reconstruction work. The second compensation was a 5.0 magnitude quake occurred in Yunlong County, Dali Prefecture, on May 18, 2016. This earthquake caused 46.43 thousands people affected, 4 people 12 injuried, 32 houses collapsed, 1319 houses seriously damaged, and 5769 houses generally damaged, resulting in a economic loss of 13480 Yuan. The third compensation was a 5.1 magnitude quake occurred in Yangbi County, Dali prefecture on March 27, 2017, which involved in 26913 people, caused one people to injury, made 4920 people lose their houses and directly led to a economic loss of 172 millions Yuan in Yangbi County, Eryuan County and Yunlong County. Yunlong and Yangbi earthquake got the rural houses earthquake insurance indemnity of 28 millions Yuan which would effectively support the earthquake relief and post-disaster reconstruction work.

1.2 The Characteristics of Yunnan Earthquake Insurance

Yunnan earthquake insurance is designed to a kind of triggered magnitude index insurance based on the actuality of Yunnan[8]. During the year of pilot, earthquake insurance has experienced the whole process from the underwriting to the claim. And compared with the traditional insurance products, earthquake insurance shows the following characteristics: First, the compensation standard is transparent and strongly credible. Dali Prefecture earthquake insurance is a kind of triggered magnitude index insurance. Whether or not the compensation and the amount of compensation should be are based on the standard of earthquake magnitude reaching to a pre-set magnitude, and the confirm of magnitude should take the data released by the State Seismological Bureau as a standard. In the whole process of claim, the information to each is same, so there is no asymmetric problem and that could avoid the potential claims disputes. Second, the cost of the underwriting insurance claim is low but the claim is efficient. The earthquake insurance whether compensate or not is based on the corresponding magnitude, rather than the actual loss of the earthquake. This insurance could reduce the expenditure on the front-end undertaking inspection and the back-end claim survey and loss assessment and other aspects, save costs and create a space for the reduction of premiums; after the official announcement of the magnification, the insurance

13 company can make a compensation on standard, which could shorten the claim time and improve the efficiency of claim. Third, the claim fund could be widely and flexibly used. According to the agreement, in addition to the earthquake compensation for the urban and rural residents, no more than 30% of the insurance claim can be used to the infrastructure reconstruction of the disaster areas. To some extent, this could help to speed up the work pace of the post-disaster reconstruction, and effectively promote the disaster relief work. Fourth, this insurance can prevent the moral hazard and play a good guiding role. It is necessary to confirm the insurance compensation through the earthquake magnitude rather than the actual loss of earthquake. To some extent, this would avoid the behaviors of the man-made increasing disaster loss and lying of the disaster situation, and some moral hazards. In addition, because of the fixed value of the insurance claim amount, this insurance doesn’t directly link with the loss. For the affected people, the less they lose, the more they get, this would play a positive role in guiding the affected people, which would make people take an initiative attitude to reduce the disaster loss and do the self-rescue. Fifth, the finance acts more effectively and the pressure of disaster rescue get relieved. In Yunnan, the earthquake insurance premiums are all subsidized by the financial funds of 32.15 millions Yuan per year. After the apportionment, the insurance premium of Yongping County in Dali Prefecture is 2.1239 millions Yuan, and “10 • 30” Changning earthquake in Yongping County is insured with an indemnity of 7.5376 millions Yuan, and according to this, the financial effect is about 3.55 times than before; Yunlong, Eryuan, Jianchuan, these three counties bear the premium of 7.5402 millions Yuan, in “5 • 18” Yunlong earthquake, they get the insurance claim of 28 millions Yuan, according to this, the financial effect is about 3.7 times than before. The subsidy of the financial fund to the earthquake insurance premiums not only make the earthquake insurance have the effect of “pre-disaster prevention---disaster compensation---post- disaster reconstruction”, but also is the concrete manifestation of the government “tangible hand” moving the market “invisible hand”[11]. This insurance improved the 14 financial efficiency and effectively relieved the disaster relief pressure of the local government.

1.3 Problems in Earthquake Insurance

Yunnan earthquake insurance is not only the first pilot project of the rural houses earthquake insurance in China, but also an important trial in the developing process of the national catastrophe insurance. There is no experience to learn, so the main problems are as follows: First, the source of the premium is simple, which is against the development of the pilot. At present, Yunnan earthquake insurance premiums are financed by the provincial, state and county levels governments. But because of the relative backward economy of Yunnan and the gap in financial fund, if continue to use the current subsidy in following pilot, the gap in Yunnan financial fund would be expanded further. In addition, the economic development of rural areas in Yunnan is seriously behind the national level. In 2015, per capita disposable income of rural areas in Yunnan is 8,242 Yuan, only being equal to 72.16% of the whole country. Due to the lack of economic capacity and awareness of the catastrophe level risk, the rural residents are unwilling to pay the insurance for themselves. If the sources of premium only rely on the local finance or the farmers, and without the support of the central government finance, the earthquake insurance pilot would not be kept. Second, the range of the pilot is small, which is against the effective dispersion of the risk. From the point of risk diversification, the earthquake insurance should be kept in a cross-region, cross-cycle and multi-causes catastrophe risk smoothing system. However, the current earthquake insurance pilot area in Yunnan is small, the pilot time is limited, the causes of the disaster are simple. There is no comprehensive and effective risk diversification system at all, so that if some super-expected catastrophe occur in future, the insurance companies would have to face a huge risk. The earthquake insurance pilot in Yunnan set up no more than one year, and there are only two compensation earthquakes which amounted to 35.5736 millions Yuan, much more than

15 the premium income of 32.15 millions Yuan, and the simple rate of compensation is more than 100%. This greatly reduced the enthusiasmof the insurance company to underwriting, which is also against the sustainable development of earthquake catastrophe insurance. Third, the supporting policy is not perfect, which is against the further development of the pilot. At present, there is no specific law and regulation related to earthquake insurance, and there is nothing involving in the central government subsidies, tax relief, catastrophe reserve, catastrophe fund, the innovation of catastrophe financial products and other related policies. Under the circumstance of no national catastrophe risk management system to spread risks, Dali earthquake insurance can only rely on the mechanism of the insurance industry, which is a huge operational risk for the insurance industry and is against the further development of the earthquake insurance.

1.4 Suggestions for Improving the Catastrophe Insurance System

Yunnan earthquake insurance pilot has an important referential value for the development of catastrophe insurance[8]. In order to continuously promote the development of catastrophe insurance and further provide reference function for the national catastrophe insurance system, on the basis of the experience of earthquake pilot, the relevant recommendations are as follows: First, exploring the legislation of earthquake insurance. Yunnan earthquake insurance pilot is an important trial to explore the construction of catastrophe risk management system in China. But there is no special legal norm in the current earthquake insurance, the protections and supportive policies only scatter in different provisions, and it is even blank in some provisions. It is suggested that the relevant policies on the earthquake catastrophe insurance should be further clarified on the basis of the pre-earthquake insurance pilot project. The system should be raised to legal level. If necessary, through the local legislation of earthquake catastrophe insurance it could provide support for the publishment of Earthquake Catastrophe Insurance Regulations. 16

Second, trying to gain fiscal subsidies of the central government. The catastrophe insurance covers a wide range and has a large demand for funds. However, the economic development of Yunnan is relatively backward, there are 88 poor counties in 129 districts and counties in Yunnan, its proportion is close to 70%. Widespread poverty in rural areas, and there is a large gap in local financial fund. In order to solve the constraints of insurance, it is recommended that Yunnan earthquake insurance pilot should be upgraded to a national pilot project, and should be given the policy support and financial subsidies of the central government. Third, taking a pre-trail of preferential tax policy. Earthquake catastrophe insurance risk is smooth and long, the current annual tax policy is inconsistent with the operation characteristics of the insurance. In addition, the smooth demand for the earthquake catastrophe insurance is huge. For the reason that the national catastrophe risk dispersion system has not been established, and catastrophe risk hedging instruments are not rich enough, it is recommended to firstly try “earthquake catastrophe insurance loan loss provision pre-tax expenses” and “earthquake catastrophe insurance deduction from income tax” and other preferential tax policies, and to expand the basis of counting and withdrawing loan loss provision and increase the safe cushion for earthquake insurance fund. Fourth, expanding the earthquake insurance pilot. Earthquake insurance pilot is of great significance for the economic and social development in Yunnan and the national catastrophe risk management system, which is an important way to stabilize and benefit the people’s livelihood, and it is necessary to promote pilot expansion. It is proposed to further extend the pilot, broaden the region and enrich the content. Through expanding the pilot business to smooth the operational risk of the insurance industry, to provide more people with the protection of earthquake risk and promote the development of earthquake insurance. Fifth, enriching the risk hedging tools. It is suggested that we should further integrate social resources, in the way of financial innovation to explore some earthquake catastrophe financial products, such as financial catastrophe bonds, catastrophe lottery tickets, catastrophe funds and so on, so as to provide as much risk 17 mitigation and hedging tools for catastrophe insurance. At the same time, it is recommended to guide the insurance companies to make full use of the government disaster relief system, with the relevant government system resources to enhance management level of the insurance industry for earthquake catastrophe. Sixth, establishing the catastrophe risk management think tank. It is recommended to encourage and guide the insurance companies to actively cooperate with organizations such as higher education institutions and scientific research institutions, and integrate resources to explore and establish an open and integrated disaster risk management think tank with production, teaching and research integration. Continuously studying and improving catastrophe risk management techniques is important, too. At the same time, we should encourage and guide the insurance companies to actively train men for professional catastrophe risk management in future insurance industry, to provide a broader and more diverse catastrophe risk management service, and to reserve human resources, and promote the construction of catastrophe risk management system.

1.5 The Main Content and Significance of Researching Catastrophe Insurance System

The main topics of this research: (1) The statistics of Yunnan earthquake disaster loss assessment in past years; (2) The supplement of some domestic earthquake disaster damage assessment data to increase the number of samples; (3) Through the computer numerical simulation analysis, shaking table test simulation analysis of single seismic disaster simulation data collection, supplementing the vulnerability of the new type of modern house building lacking in earthquake disaster over the years; (4) Data processing of the above information to establish the vulnerability curve of housing construction in Yunnan.

Earthquake insurance is an effective way to achieve social mutual aid, reduce the national economic burden, and improve earthquake-resistant, disaster-reducing abilities and emergency support capabilities. It plays an important role in preventing earthquakes, compensating post-earthquake and mitigating earthquakes. At present, in order to solve the problems caused by the earthquake, the earthquake insurance systems have been established in some developed countries and regions. Its purpose is to accumulate funds for earthquake compensation and provide funds for post-disaster reconstruction so as to ensure that citizens could quickly rebuild their homes and resume normal life after a huge disaster. The research on the vulnerability of housing construction in Yunnan Province is conducive to the smooth implementation of earthquake insurance and reconstruction after the earthquake. To be specific, there are at least three realistic meanings: (1) To objectively and effectively compensate for the losses caused by the earthquake disaster; (2) To provide reference for the government departments to reduce the financial and social burdens and improve the intervention process of disaster relief funds. (3) By participating in insurance, people can get some financial compensation after the disaster so as to make people economically protected after the disaster and to play a vital role in maintaining social stability.

1.6 The Potential Application in Other Countries

On November 25, 2016, the Champion Property and Casualty Insurance Company and Kunming University of Science and Technology held a joint seminar on exploration and research on earthquake insurance in Chenggong Destric, Kunming City, Yunnan Province. The representatives of insurance regulator from Cambodia, India, Laos, Pakistanis, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Hong Kong and other countries and regions, and some Chinese insurance regulatory agencies officials and other relevant people gathered to learn more about Kunming’s urban construction and insurance business.

The Champion Property and Casualty Insurance Company continuously makes great innovation and breakthrough on disaster risk management in Yunnan. It is beneficial to continuously improve the development of catastrophe insurance system and promote the disaster risk management capabilities in Asia, which also could push the cross-border and inter-regional cooperation and development, share resources and win-win future. The Champion Property and Casualty Insurance Company takes the initiative to serve and integrate into the overall world economic development. It also makes full use of the strategic position of “bridgehead” in Yunnan Province and the advantages of CHAC Headquarters platform in Yunnan, which would deepen the exchange and cooperation with the international insurance market in areas, such as catastrophe risk,

20 and joint efforts to promote the development of earthquake insurance. At the same time, it provides all-out support for the neighboring countries in South and Southeast Asia to develop the economic and improve people’s livelihood. Yunnan is located on the southeast side of the collision zone between India and Eurasia plates. It is one of the provinces with the largest numbers and the most serious earthquakes. The seismic design intensity of Yunnan province is above 6 degree. There is 84 percent of Yunnan province's area where the seismic design intensity is 7-9 degree. According to the subject research, the earthquake investigation has been carried out on several earthquake prone areas in Yunnan province. The survey sites include Honghe, Dali, Baoshan, Zhaotong and Xishuangbanna. Xishuangbanna is located in the southernmost tip of Yunnan, connected with landscapes of Laos and Myanmar, and is adjacent to Thailand and Vietnam. Therefore, the results of this survey also have certain potential prospects of application for several neighboring countries in South and Southeast Asia. On the basis of the tentative plan of Yunnan, some changes should be made lightly with other countries’ own economic conditions. The neighboring countries should cooperate with each other to jointly solve the threat of catastrophes to personal and property security of people in all countries. Yunnan Province is located in the intensity of the earthquake. The earthquakes occur from time to time. From the geographical location, some adjacent countries in South and Southeast Asia are similar to Yunnan, where are also prone to earthquakes. Some countries are in the same seismic intensity zone or fracture surface with Yunnan Province, which is also facing a tremendous earthquake disaster threat to the personal and property security of people in the area. Moreover, the types of housing construction in Myanmar, Thailand and other areas around Yunnan are similar to those of some ethnic minorities in Yunnan. Therefore, the influence on the construction survey types for the demand of earthquake insurance could be taken as a reference for neighboring countries. Compared to some relatively developed countries, several neighboring countries in South and Southeast Asia are developing countries as China. There are obvious deficiencies in the catastrophic risks of capital investment and institutional improvement in developing countries. Therefore, only by strengthening mutual 21 cooperation between neighboring developing countries and China in catastrophe insurance can we achieve a considerable strength with the developed countries in coping with catastrophic risks and win-win cooperation among developing countries as soon as possible.

Chapter 2 Study Design on the Willingness of

Earthquake Insurance

2.1 Sample Selection

In combination with the research purpose and operability of this subject, the rural households in different regions (Dali, Baoshan, Xishuangbanna, Zhaotong and Honghe) of Yunnan province were chosen as the research object according to the frequency of earthquake occurrence, geographical location and level of farmer income. Xishuangbanna is located in the southernmost tip of Yunnan province, which is connected with Laos, Myanmar by mountains and rivers, close neighbors of Thailand and Vietnam. The land area is nearly 20,000 square kilometers, the border up to 966

22 kilometers. From the characteristics of regional seismic activity, Xishuangbanna is located in two famous earthquakes activity belts in Yunnan, the northeast side is Simao- Pu'er earthquake area, northwest is Gengma-Lancang earthquake area. Earthquakes in the area are mainly controlled by two major seismic zones. The earthquakes affected most in this area were the M 7 earthquake in Mengzhe on December 26, 1941, the M 7 earthquake in Daluo on February 3, 1950, the 1988’s M 7.2 and M 7.6 earthquake in Lancang and Gengma. Three earthquakes have made the prefecture capital Jinghong city suffer 6 degrees damage. There are three faults in the area related to seismicity: the Lancangjiang fault, the Muga fault and the Daluo-Jinghong fault. Among them, the most active activity is Daluo-Jinghong fault activity. On February 3, 1950, a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred on the China-Myanmar border in the western end. On June 23, 2007, the China-Myanmar border of 5.6 and 5.8 magnitudes also occurred at the western end of the fracture. It shows that the Daluo-Jinghong fault is a strong earthquake tectonic belt. Hani-Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Honghe is located in the southeast of China's Yunnan province, east of Wenshan state, south of the border with Vietnam, whose west is adjacent to Yuxi and Simao, and north is adjacent to Kunming and Qujing. The prefecture owns 13 counties and cities, with a land area of 32,931 square kilometers and a population of 4.13 million. The state terrain is northwest high, southeast low. The highest elevation is 3,074 meters, and the minimum elevation is 76.4 meters. The border is up to 848 square kilometers. The Honghe is located in the intersection of the famous Honghe fault and the Xiaojiang fault, and the geological structure is complicated. The secondary primary activity in the area, such as Shiping - Tonghai fault, etc. High frequency of earthquake, strong intensity, wide distribution, shallow source and heavy disaster, the area is one of the earthquake-prone areas in Yunnan province. Since 1965, there were 27 earthquakes with a magnitude of 4.0 and a magnitude of 4.0. Among them, there were 20 earthquakes from 4.0 to 4.9 magnitude and 7 times of magnitude from 5.0 to 5.9. Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture is located in the central part of Yunnan province, east of Chuxiong prefecture, south of Pu'er city and Lincang city, the west is connected 23 with Baoshan city and Nujiang state, north of Lijiang city. Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture is located on the west side of the middle section of the Honghe fault, between the Honghe fault and the Lancang River canal fault, but close to the Lancang River fault. Since the 1992 disaster assessment, Dali occurred a total of 6 destructive earthquake, respectively, on November 2, 2009 Binchuan 5.0 earthquake, March 3, 2013 Eryuan 5.5 earthquake, April 17, 2013 Eryuan - Yangbi 5.0 earthquake, October 30, 2015 Yunnan Province Baoshan city Changning (related to Dali Yongping county), May 18, 2016 Dali Yunlong 5.0 earthquake, March 27, 2017 Dali Yangbi 5.1 earthquake. Baoshan city is located in the southwest of Yunnan province, east of Dali, south of Lincang area, west of Dehong prefecture, the north is connected with Nujiang prefecture and northwest of the border with Burma. Baoshan city is located in the southern section of the Hengduang Mountains. Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture is located in the central part of Yunnan province, east of Chuxiong prefecture, south of Pu'er city and Lincang city, the west is connected with Baoshan city and Nujiang prefecture, north of Lijiang city. Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture is located on the west side of the middle section of the Honghe fault, between the Honghe fault and the Lancang River canal fault, but close to the Lancang River fault. Since the disaster assessed in 1992, Dali occurred a total of 6 destructive earthquake, respectively, on November 2, 2009 Binchuan’s M 5.0 earthquake, March 3, 2013 Eryuan’s M 5.5 earthquake, April 17, 2013 Eryuan-Yangbi’s M 5.0 earthquake, October 30, 2015 Yunnan Province Baoshan city Changning (related to Dali Yongping county), May 18, 2016 Dali Yunlong M 5.0 earthquake, March 27, 2017 Dali Yangbi M 5.1 earthquake. Hengduan Mountains, Qing, Tibetan, Yunnan, Burma, Indonesia giant "evil" font structure of the middle and meridian structure of the composite site. The whole city is divided into east and west areas by the great rupture of the Nu River. The east and the

Lancang River fault passed by. There are Tengchong volcanic fault zone and Cass fault zone in the city, and there are Longling-Ruili-Shidian fault zone and Dayingjiang fault zone in the northeast faults. These faults have had strong earthquakes in recent times. Baoshan city is one of the three seismicity zones in Yunnan Province, with high frequency and strong intensity. From 1900 to 2002, there were 32 quakes in the city of 24

Baoshan, including 9 earthquakes from M 6.0 to M 6.9, twice magnitude 7 and above, causing great loss to people's life and property. Zhaotong city is located in the northeastern part of Yunnan province, along the Jinsha river the western and northern regions across the Sichuan province, the easten border with Guizhou province, and the south is connected with Qujing and Dongchuan city. The land area is 23,000 square kilometers with over 5.1 million people. The city has jurisdiction over 10 counties, such as Zhaoyang District, Ludian County, Qiaojia County, Zhenxiong County, Yiliang County, Wenxin County, Yanjin County, Daguan County, Yongshang County, Suijiang County, Shufu County, etc. The seismic fortification intensity is all over 6 degrees, and 9 degrees area for Qiaojia Country, 8 degrees area for Yiliang, Daguan, Yongshang County, 7 degrees area for Zhaoyang District and Yanjin, Shuifu, Suijiang, Ludian County, 6 degrees area for Zhenxiong and Weixin County. The city is located in the southern section of the north-south seismic belt, the western margin of the Yangtze River fault, the East Bu Ma-Yiliang fault. A three-dimensional climate forms multiple earthquakes and rises from 242 meters to 4041.6 meters. The main tectonic structures are the Margaret-Yiliang fault zone, Qiaojia-Lianfeng fault zone and Sichuan Yibin fault zone. There were 37 destructive earthquakes in the city since records began in 1844.

2.2 Research Forms

In order to obtain the data of microcosmic individuals, to understand the farmers for the earthquake risk perception, risk response capacity, the demand for earthquake insurance situation and the highest willingness to pay for earthquake insurance, we carry out the research of rural residents’ opinions about earthquake insurance[29]. To ensure the truth and reality of data, the survey selected 10 graduate students with professional earthquake knowledge to obtain and collect the questionnaires in the form of one-to-one communication in the research site. Through the communication and counseling of the subjects, the knowledge of the earthquake and the demand for earthquake insurance were aquisited. In this form, we can not only acquire farmers'

25 demands and acceptance of earthquake insurance in time, but also can popularize earthquake knowledge to prevent and mitigate the disaster. Based on the overall consideration, the questionnaire should contain various factors that may affect the farmers' acceptance of earthquake insurance. This questionnaire carried out mainly based on the following aspects: 1. The basic information of farmers, including gender, age, family income, Level of education, population structure, etc; 2. The housing conditions of the farmers, including the structure type of the house, the status of the house, the acreage and the reconstruction expenses, etc; 3. Farmers' perceptions of earthquake risk, the coping capacity of risks and tendency of risk prevention measures. Risk perception in human behaviors playing a very important role, people usually adopt behaviors that can reduce ,avoid or transfer risk in high-risk environments to alleviate the inner pressure. In general, there is a positive correlation between individual risk perception and individual risk prevention behaviors. Risk perception can increase individual demands for catastrophe insurance; 4. The effect of government actions on farmers' acceptance of earthquake insurance demand; 5. The farmers' demands for earthquake insurance and the maximum willingness to pay for earthquake insurance.

Chapter 3 Analysis of the results from the survey

3.1 Methodology

3.1.1 Selection Principles of Farmers

Five sample areas (Xishuangbanna, Honghe, Dali, Baoshan and Zhaotong) were selected for the survey. Several representatives of villages and towns were selected from all regions. For small villages and towns, the survey adopts a house-to-house survey. For villages and towns with relatively large population, we select samples from middle- level farmers in villages and towns and conduct one-on-one interviews based on the principle of equal proportion of men and women and reasonable age structure. Meanwhile, selective researches will be conducted proportionally according to the condition of their families and households' oldness. As for the age of the research objects, we selected residents from 18 to 75 years old to conduct survey and inquiry. Such group are capable of making independent judgment, and the survey data can be more realistic and reasonable.

3.1.2 Measuring Method of Farmers Demand and Willingness to Pay for Earthquake Insurance

To investigate rural households' demand and willingness to pay for earthquake insurance, this paper adopts the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM)[13], a typical stating preference assessment method, which directly investigates and inquires people about a certain Willingness to Pay (WTP) for an environmental or resource conservation measure or Willingness to Accept (WTA) the loss of environmental or resource quality. At present, overseas researches on WTP for catastrophe insurance all adopt this method. This paper uses CVM method to survey into two willingness for earthquake insurance. One is Willingness to Insure (WTI) and the other is the maximum amount one is willing to pay(WTP). 27

The WTI and WTP measurement are simple. We may ask farmers whether they want to buy while providing them with specific context and hypothetical products. After ensuring that farmers have understood the situation, they are asked about their purchase intention for earthquake insurance and the maximum premium that they can pay each year. If the farmer can answer the maximum payment willingness under the correct guidance of the investigator, this part of survey is finished. If farmers are still hard to choose after many questions, we may use the Bidding Game (BD) method to guide them. First, ask farmers whether to buy earthquake insurance at the initial price (P0). If the peasant's answer is "willing to buy," continue with a higher price (PU) and ask consumers whether the earthquake insurance is still willing to be purchased at such price until the peasant responds "not willing to buy" and the price is determined as WTP; if the consumer's answer at the initial(P0) price is "do not want to buy", continue to ask at a lower price (PD) until the farmer responds "willing to buy" to determine the price as WTP.

3.1.3 Data Analysis Method

Data processing and analysis are important components of the research questionnaire on earthquake insurance. In scientific research, we need to deal with a large amount of data. The data processing and analysis determine whether the purpose and the definite conclusion of the survey can be achieved. How to extract useful information from these disorganized survey data and use it to guide scientific research? We need to select a reasonable data analysis method to process the data. There are many kinds of data analysis methods, including regression analysis, analysis of variance, factor analysis and correlation analysis[14]. Regression analysis is a powerful tool for data analysis. It can reveal the relationship between variables and study the non-deterministic causal relationship between variables. Therefore, regression analysis becomes the main method in data analysis. Regression analysis includes parametric regression, non-parametric regression and semi-parametric

28 regression. In this paper, we use non-parametric regression to analyze part of the data in the process of data processing.

3.2 Survey of farmers' distribution

Combined with the research purposes and operability, part of small villages and towns in five research sites (Xishuangbanna, Honghe, Dali, Baoshan, Zhaotong) were selected in accordance with the earthquake frequency, geographic location, income level of farmers and other factors concerning earthquake. The survey basically achieved evenly distribution in research location and the balance of gender proportion and age structure. Because of many human factors in the research process, there is a little error in the data, but the error is small, especially for a large sample, it can be ignored. Table 3.2- 1 Distribution of farmers surveyed City County Town Family Proportion Jinghong、Menghai、 Chengzhi、Mannazhuang、 Xishuangbanna 285 18.46% Mengla Yinhejiuzu、Mengla、Menglun Honghe Jianshui、Shiping Linan、Nanzhuang、Xizhuang 329 21.31% Binchuan、 Binju、Qiaodianlijiao、Changxin、 Dali Yunlong、Yangbi、 676 43.78% Fuheng、Changjieshuixie Yongping Baoshan Changning Goujie、Zhujie 30 1.94% Longtouhsan、Wenpin、Tuanjie、 Zhaotong Yongsha、lLudian 224 14.51% Maolin

3.3 The Basic Conditions of the Farmer

In terms of the age of the farmer surveyed, the average age was 44.25 years old, of which the youngest was 16 years old and the largest was 75 years old. The vast majority of the samples lie in the rang of 31 to 60 years old, accounting for 71.76% of the total research objects. The proportion of male to female subjects was 1:1.1238, including 817 males and 727 females. The level of education takes educational degrees as the standard, that is, no education experience, primary school, junior high school, high school, university. Samples from primary school and junior high school account for a large

29 proportion of about 77.39%. The higher degree of education they got, the more knowledge of the insurance they acquired, and the desire of viewing insurance as a means of risk management will be stronger. The average annual household income of the surveyed objects was 23,750 Yuan, among which the highest up to 200,000 Yuan. Large disparity exists between the rich and poor sample, with annual household income below 10,000 Yuan sharing 32%, from 10,000 to 20,000 Yuan accounting for 26%, and those from 20,000 to 30,000 Yuan about 18%, from 30,000 to 50,000 Yuan about 12%, from 50,000 to 80,000 Yuan nearly 7%, 80,000 Yuan and above accounting for 5%. At present, the rural insurance market is an revenue-based market. The acceptance of premiums increases as their income grows. Therefore, the higher income farmers gain the stronger willingness they have to pay for earthquake insurance[29]. Low incomes pose a challenge for farmers to voluntarily participate in earthquake insurance programs. The average family member of the surveyed households was 4.84, with a maximum of 14, of which the average of labor force is 2.47, no more than 6. Family labor force is the main force against external risks. Since the majority of young people who have strong workforce have chosen to be migrant workers, those stay at home are often the elderly and the infant who are unable to work, so the research objects are lacking in the resistance to risks.

male female ratio

male female

47% 53%

Figure 3.3- 1 male female ratio

Figure 3.3- 2 Proportion of all ages Household income(RMB)

0～10000 10000～20000 20000～30000 30000～50000 50000～80000 more than 80000 5% 7%

32% 12%

18% 26%

Figure 3.3- 3 Household income(RMB)

educational status none primary school junior high school senior high school Graduate and above

6% 3% 13%

37% 41%

Figure 3.3- 4 The level of education of the subject

Family population structure (number of households)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3% 1% 1% 1% 5% 5% 11%

19%

26%

28%

Figure 3.3- 5 Family population structure

Income to meet household expenses

YES NO

18%

82%

Figure 3.3- 6 Income to meet household expenses Assessment of family status

affluence well general bad

21% 15%

60%

Figure 3.3- 7 Assessment of family status

3.4 Rural Housing Structure

Yunnan housing construction mainly includes reinforced concrete shear wall structure, frame shear wall structure, frame structure, inner frame structure, reinforced concrete workshop, brick and concrete structure, brick structure, brick and wood structure, wooden frame houses, adobe houses and so on. There are a small number of circular huts with regional ethnic characteristics (located in Lijiang, Ninglang Lugu Lake Yi ethnic group’s area), surrounding by a bamboo wall or wood wall with column and tie structure(distributed in southern Yunnan, Dai and Wa areas in southwestern part of Yunnan). In order to facilitate the work in earthquake site, after associating the specific characteristics of the earthquake-stricken areas with the actual situation of the earthquake site over the past years, according to the building's seismic performance and difference prices of construction units, the housing construction in Yunnan is roughly divided into 5 categories: reinforced concrete structure, multi-layer masonry, brick and wood structure, civil structure and other structures, with reference to the relevant norms[16] (National Seismological Bureau of Earthquake Defense Division, 1993; China Seismological Bureau .1998; National Quality and Technical Supervision , 2000), 1. Reinforced concrete structure The structure includes a cylinder structure, a frame shear wall structure, a frame structure, an inner frame structure and a reinforced concrete plant. The most common is the reinforced concrete frame structure. Beams and columns are used to load bearing, and bricks to fill walls, prefabricated panels or cast-in-place slabs and roofs. The rural areas only have a small amount of reinforced concrete frame structure, less than 10% of the local buildings; shear wall structure, cylinder structure and other modern structures are exclusive to high buildings in the state-level cities or a few economically developed county-level cities. 2. Multi-storey masonry houses (Brick and concrete structure) The structure is mainly loaded by the brick wall, most with reinforced concrete structural columns, prefabricated panels or cast-in-place slabs and roofs, and few have 33 reinforced concrete beams. All have 2 to 6 layers, including brick and concrete structure and brick structure. As a common type of structure, it is widely distributed in urban and rural areas, and is mainly for old houses in urban areas. This year, it is used in self-built houses and reconstruction of housing, affordable housing and other projects in rural areas. 3. Brick and wood structure The structure uses brick or brick wall as load-bearing. And wooden roof truss is placed on the brick, tile roof or asbestos tile roof. It also can be a tile roof house built by bricks wall and equipped with column and tie structure. A few adopt wooden partition. 4. Civil structure The structure adopts column and tie structure as load-bearing, wooden frame is mounted on the stone pier and the wall is built by the rammed earth or adobe brick. It has slope roof, mostly the three-bay, one or two layers. Of this kind are the wall-loaded or brick-loaded houses with shelf beam. In Yunnan, Brick and wood structure and civil structure are common types of structure in the rural areas and few scatter in urban areas. Some areas that is economically underdeveloped or lacking in vegetation resources (such as Zhaotong) mainly use post-and-lintel construction. Without column and tie structure as load- bearing, the seismic performance is poor. Brick and wood structure or civil structure in Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture is an opposite example. The region is rich in timber resources and the size of wood frame is large. A wooden pillow can be encircled by three or four adults. 5. Other structure Owing to the rich natural resource background, housing construction consume more wood in Yunnan than in other regions, especially in many seismic regions. In some areas, the houses are solidly built, such as Dai wooden house, bamboo house, X- house and wall-hung house of Lahu group, wood-edged houses in Yao areas, Tibetan and some Yi areas, all-consuming a great amount of wood. With wooden pillars buried underground (1 building have 20 to 30), the house can be very solid; the upper roof 34 truss is made of a bucket, the connection is firm; the fence is made of wood or bamboo. All achieved good integrity; Roof is made of light material such as grass, wood or tile, so seismic performance is very good. The majority of the houses surveyed are civil structures and brick and concrete structures, which account for 34.26% and 40.61% of the total samples, followed by brick and wood structures about 13.73%, Houses with frame structure take up 10.17% which have the strongest earthquake resistance capacity, other structures account for only 1.23%. Brick and concrete structure become popular only in recent years, since the earthquake have damaged or destroyed some old houses with civil structure. And then brick structure began to be adopted in farmhouse restoration, which occupied large proportion of houses surveyed. Table 3.4- 1 Basic situation of farmhouse structure in research area Farmhouse Count the basic situation Seismic capacity classification number Reinforced concrete frame load - Frame structure Better earthquake resistance 10.17% bearing Stone foundation, brick wall, brick-concrete In the Ⅵ degree earthquake intensity concrete beam, floor as the main 40.61% structure will not be a big damage phenomenon load-bearing structure Brick and wood Wearing a wooden frame load or In the Ⅵ degree earthquake intensity 13.73% structure brick, brick wall load will not be a big damage phenomenon The main load-bearing structure Only in the Ⅵ-Ⅶ degree earthquake of the column and beam is to Civil structure intensity does not appear under the big 34.26% maintain the wall or the wall of damage phenomenon rammed earth Eg.The stilt style architecture: A resist the damage of the earthquake Other structure frame structure with beam 1.23% intensity of VIII-IX column Yunnan Province has more than 70% of the population living in rural areas, there are more than 870 million households, with construction area about 800 million square meters. About 20% of houses fail to meet the standard of seismic fortification, about 60% of the houses need to be dismantled, reconstructed or armed with seismic reinforcement. According to this analysis, about 640 million square meters of rural residences are lower in seismic capacity, which can hardly withstand a destructive

35 earthquake or an VI degree earthquake of minimum intensity ; only 20%, about 160 million square meters of houses can be resistant to a VI degree earthquake. The main types of house structures in Yunnan, building materials, construction technology, the time of construction, the basic costs are shown in the following table.

Table 3-4-2 Survey of earthquake resistance of rural residents in Yunnan Province Table 3.4- 2 Survey of earthquake resistance of rural residents in Yunnan Province Building the time of Construction Distribution The basic structure type materials construction technology area cost Reinforced Formal design and All regions are frame After 1990 800 concrete construction available Brick, Not formal design All regions are Brick mixed After 1990 600 concrete and construction available Design and Brick and All regions are Brick, wood In 1960 ~ 1990 construction of rural 400 wood available craftsmen Design and All regions are Civil Soil, wood Before 1960 construction of rural 300 available craftsmen Each area is a Self-designed Soil shelves soil Before 1960 small amount 100 construction of existence Design and Dehong, Dai clan style traditional wood construction of rural Xishuangbanna 925 building building craftsmen and other cities Over the years, rural residential construction lacks effective arrangement in the planning and siting, design and construction, quality and safety, seismic fortification and other links, resulting in low quality of rural residences, poor seismic performance and the prevalence of security risks. 20% of rural residences cannot meet the standard of seismic fortification, which need to be dismantled or reconstructed, about 60% of rural residences need to strengthen the earthquake reinforcement.

3.5 The Risk Perception Ability of Farmers

Risk perception is a dynamic process of change, and there are several different risk assessment criteria in everyone’s mind. Some extreme events manipulate the results of people's risk perception in a very complex way. The individual's perceived level of

36 specific risk has a prejudice in the initial social and cultural environment. When the key event occurs, through the direct experience of individuals and indirect experience to obtain relevant information, the risk influences, adjusts, and reshapes a priori perceived level so as to revise the previous, basic assumptions, and then produce conscious ideas and risk perception levels after this process, and then provide the subjective evaluation and internal motivation for willingness to take the next move and make some specific decisions错误!未找到引用源。. This paper focuses on four main factors that affect the perception of earthquake risk among rural residents, namely, the characteristics of individual socio-economic characteristics, the degree of risk exposure, disaster experience and government behavior[17]. All the literature of the study on natural disaster risk perception involves the impact of social factors of individuals on risk perception, in which gender is the most important one as women tend to have a higher risk perception compared with men, and at the same time, age, income and education also affects individuals’ risk perception level. It is found that the age of individuals is positively correlated with the risk perception level of natural disasters. The older individuals are, the higher the risk perception level of the natural disaster is; the level of education is negatively correlated with the level of risk perception as people with higher income tend to have lower risk perception levels, while lower-income people tend to be more afraid of earthquake risk. The previous 3.3 which is about the basic conditions of farmers offers detailed data about personal socio- economic characteristics to prove the above. As for the impact of risk exposure on farmers' risk perception, this paper takes the housing types of rural residents, and whether houses are reinforced as agent variables of risk exposure. Housing Reinforcement Project is a set of comprehensive measures launched by the local government of Yunnan Province to improve disaster prevention and mitigation of farmers. For some of the farmers of higher risk levels, the Government provides free reinforcement works[17]. The housing type for residents is in details in Table 3-4-1. In addition to the existing structure of the housing types of local residents, a preliminary statistical survey is also 37 conducted to show the existing housing situation and housing area of residents. 53% of the current housing are in basically good state and 38% have got a slight damage. In addition, 9% have security risks. In terms of the variable of housing reinforcement, the government plays a key role. In the course of the survey, 20% of the respondents have got housing reinforcement by the government. It is mentioned above that 20% of rural residential buildings simply do not meet the requirements of seismic fortification and need to be demolished and reconstructed, while about 60% of rural residential housing need to be strengthened for earthquake resistance It can be seen that the Government needs to increase the scope and intensity of housing reinforcement. Many studies have shown that individuals experiencing disasters often take a higher risk perception level so as to tend to have a positive risk prevention behavior. Through the questionnaire survey, interviewees are asked whether they have experienced an earthquake, are afraid of the earthquake，understand the hazards of the earthquake, prepare emergency items for the earthquake and understand the impact of different magnitude on the housing construction. The survey shows that 84% of the households have experienced earthquakes, and 85% of the households show varying degrees of fear of the earthquake. At the same time, 68% of the residents had a certain understanding of the earthquake hazard, but most of the residents did not have too much. More than 10% of the residents themselves prepared earthquake emergency supplies. For the treat of earthquakes with different magnitude on their own housing, the results show that about only 30% of residents do not know or do not understand the damage caused by earthquakes on their own housing, based on which we can see that farmers have a higher perception of earthquake risk. As for the part of earthquake risk perception, about 30% of those interviewed do not know or do not know how to answer, when asked about what level of damage will earthquakes of different magnitude cause respectively on their housing. As this problem is difficult to some degrees for some rural residents, this variable is discarded in the subsequent statistical analysis.

Figure 3.5- 1 Residents' earthquake experience The extent of fear of earthquakes Dimness not afraid A little scared Generally afraid terrified

6% 9%

10%

59% 16%

Figure 3.5- 2 The extent of fear of earthquakes Whether to understand the earthquake hazards

understand 24% Don't understand

68% Dimness

Figure 3.5- 3 Whether to understand the earthquake hazards

Whether they have prepared earthquake emergency supplies

Yes No

10%

90%

Figure 3.5- 4 Whether they have prepared earthquake emergency supplies By asking farmers the whether they need government subsidies for post-disaster reconstruction, we can measure the farmers’ self-defense ability against earthquakes. The farmers who think they can do rebuilding by themselves after the earthquake account for 6.99%, while 93.01% of the farmers think that the government subsidy is needed in the process of post-disaster housing reconstruction. 9.84% believe that a small proportion comes from government subsidies, 27.85% believe that the government needs to pay the half and 40.22% believe that the government needs to bear more than half, while 15.09% believe that the Government should take the entire responsibility. This result shows that, the vast majority of farmers lack the ability to restore their living standards on their own.

The need for government subsidies to rebuild after the disaster

Have the ability to rebuild 7% 15% 10% A small part of the need for government subsidies 28% Half of the need for 40% government subsidies Need more than half of government subsidies

Figure 3.5- 5 The need for government subsidies to rebuild after the disaster

Earthquake disaster reduction propaganda is an important link in the establishment of comprehensive risk prevention measures by local governments. We ask farmers whether they have heard about the "government's disaster prevention and mitigation of earthquake" propaganda to study whether government propaganda can improve the level of earthquake risk perception of farmers. Another governmental action is the government's emergency response package, which includes earthquake disaster relief supplies provided by the Yunnan government for each household (emergency supplies in need when earthquakes occur, including essential drugs, flashlight, etc.). But our survey finds that only 40.74% of the farmers heard of the governmental propaganda of earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation, and 43.65% have received an earthquake emergency package. Some claim that they have not attained the packages. It is, on one hand, because they may forget it; on the other hand, because some governments have not done a good job in this regard.

3.6 The Impact of Government Behaviors on Earthquake Insurance Demands

Our government plays an important role in disaster prevention and reduction, and government behaviors have a substantial impact on catastrophe insurance demands[29]. By means of the questionnaire survey to asked the research objects whether the government has made knowledge propaganda of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction, whether the government shockproof reinforcement have been carried out to your houses, whether the government has provided the earthquake emergency supplies for you, and do you think the government will help you after the earthquake, such several aspects of problems and so on，simultaneously，analyzing the influence of government behaviors on farmers’ risk perception、earthquake insurance demands and willingness to pay. By asking the respondents, only 40.74% of the farmers heard that the government had done publicity on the knowledge of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction, and 59.26% of farmers have never heard or known whether the government has made 41 the propaganda of disaster prevention and reduction. In the building seismic reinforcement, only 19.88% of the farmers have received government support. After the earthquake only 43.65% of the residents received the earthquake emergency supplies from government, and another 1.94% of the residents blear or forgot to receive emergency packages. Most people did not receive the emergency supplies provided by the government after the earthquake. It can be seen that some of the government's policies are not satisfactory. Only 8.31% of the residents think that the government will not help when asked how much help the Government can give to the residents after the earthquake. Most people still believe that the Government will help us to rebuild the housings.

The government has done a knowledge of earthquake mitigation and disaster reduction

YES NO dimness

41%

54%

Figure 3.6- 1 Knowledge publicity for disaster prevention and disaster reduction

Does the government reinforce your house?

YES NO dimness

20%

79%

Figure 3.6- 2 Strengthening of housing construction

Has the government provided an emergency package?

Yes no Dimness 2%

44% 54%

Figure 3.6- 3 Has the government provided an emergency package

Do you think the government will help you after the earthquake?

Little Half Most No dimness

21% 38%

8% 16% 17%

Figure 3.6- 4 Government assistance after the disaster

3.7 Farmers’ Earthquake Insurance Demands and Willingness to Pay

By asking farmers “whether to join the earthquake insurance by themselves advocated by government, and government subsidies undertake most of the insurance”, we can generally understand farmers’ willingness to insure. The survey results show that only 16.45% of farmers are reluctant to insure the earthquake insurance; 57.58% of farmers are willing to insure the earthquake insurance; also 15.41% of farmers believe that they will insure earthquake insurance as long as the price is cheap. Therefore, the overwhelming majority of farmers have a positive attitude towards earthquake insurance[20]. 43

1. Do you have access to and understand the products of earthquake insurance？

Yes No Unclear 8.42% 89.57% 2.01% 2. Do you think your home needs to be insured against earthquake：

Yes No Unclear 34.78% 48.70% 16.52% 3. If the government encourages farmers to insure their own earthquake insurance, and

subsidize the majority of the insurance premium, will you insure it?

Yes No Depending on the price Unclear 57.58% 16.45% 15.41% 10.56% 4.The policy of rural housing earthquake insurance, earthquake insurance to pay an annual

fee, what is your maximum willingness to pay：

0～20% 20%～30% 30%～40% 40%～50% More than 50%

52.56% 31.07% 6.79% 6.94% 2.64% 5. For commercial earthquake insurance, they need to bear the full cost, you can afford the

maximum willingness to pay:

5～50 50～100 100～200 RMB 200～300 RMB More than 300 RMB RMB RMB 55.21% 23.17% 11.66% 7.11% 2.86%

Willingness-to-Insure (WTI)

Yes No Depending on the price Unclear

11%

15%

16% 58%

Figure 3.7- 1 Farmers' willingness to insure

Policy farmhouse earthquake insurance.Williness-to-Pay（WTP） 0-20% 20%-30% 30%-40% 40%-50% above 50%

7% 3% 7%

31% 52%

Figure 3.7- 2 Policy farmhouse earthquake insurance maximum willingness to pay

Commercial earthquake insurance.Wiliness-to-Pay (WTP) unit：yuan 5～50 50～100 100～200 200～300 above 300

3% 7%

12%

23% 55%

Figure 3.7- 3 Commercial earthquake insurance maximum willingness to pay

3.8 Analysis of statistical Data

3.8.1 Regression Analysis of Parameter

The so-called regression analysis of parameter is based on the theoretical hypothesis to derive the model of the function of the relationship, and then through the regression analysis to calculate the function of the relationship between the parameters of the parameters. The parameters of the regression model generally have a clear physical meaning, and if the regression model of the parameter proves to be correct, then the regression result can be extended.

The regression function in the parameter regression analysis is known, but only one of the parameters to be determined and the greatest advantage is that the regression results can be extended, but its shortcomings cannot be ignored. Once the form of regression function is fixed on the more rigid the effect is often poor.

3.8.2 Regression Analysis of Nonparametric

In the actual situation, due to the limitations of people’s understanding, it often cannot correctly assume the form of regression function, thus cannot pass the parametric regression analysis to solve the problem. Therefore, nonparametric regression analysis came into being. Regression analysis of nonparametric and parameter solve the problem on the other way around. It does not assume the specific form of the model, but based on the characteristics of input and output data to find a suitable form of function for complex regression problems with good applicability, and the fitting effect is better, but because of its lack of clear physical meaning of the regression model, it ultimately leads to the extension difficulty of the results. Therefore, the model acquired through the nonparametric regression analysis has some limitations[21]. There are many methods for nonparametric regression. ACE (Alternating

Conditional Expectations) regression is mainly used here[29]. This method is provided in the statistical software S-PLUS and can be used directly. The basic idea of ACE regression is to find the transformations φ1 (x1), φ2 (x2), ..., φm (xm) and the transformations between the input parameters x1, x2, ..., xm and the function y, without assuming the form of the function θ (y) to satisfy the following mapping: θ(y)＝φ1(x1)＋φ2(x2)＋…＋φm(xm)＋ε (2-18) In the formula,ε is the fitting error to reflect the fitting precision. Thus it can be determined that the function y is: y＝θ-1[φ1(x1)＋φ2(x2)＋…＋φm(xm)＋ε] (2-19) If the function form of φ1 (x1), φ2 (x2), ..., φm (xm) and θ (y) can be determined, then the form of function y also will be determined.

Here is the ACE regression. The following is its calculation in the S-PLUS process.

Analysis Parameter Paramete intervals levels Input samples

X1 [X1min, X1max] X11,X12,..,X1n Input sample 1

X2 [X2min, X2max] X21,X22,..,X2n Input sample 2 Questionn FEAM

Xi [Ximin, Ximax] Xi1,Xi2,..,Xin aire Table Input sample j

Xm [Xmmin, Xmmax] Xm1,Xm2,..,Xmn Input sample n

Output samples

Output 1

Output 2 ACE

Output j

Output n

RS relationship

Figure 3.8- 1 The procedure of obtaining RS relationship

3.8.3 ACE Regression Deals with Survey Questionnaire Data

The analysis of the questionnaire about residents’ willingness to study the rural earthquake insurance in Yunnan rural area was carried out. Some of the problems in the questionnaire were selected as relevant variables which had the greatest impact on the residents’ earthquake insurance payment intention in the questionnaire. ACE regression analysis was analyzed in the statistical software S-PLUS . First of all, translate the semantics of input and output in the questionnaire into the corresponding value that is, initially analyzing and statistical describing the above data, and then weighting score to each of the corresponding input in the software, accordingly getting the most direct factor affecting output. The following Table 3.7.3-1 is the definition of each variable after preliminary screening.

Table 3.8- 1 Each variable definition

Variable classification variable question Semantic assignment number

1 = 7 degrees, 2 = 7.5 degrees, Geological X1 seismic intensity 3 = 8 degrees, 4 = 8.5 degrees characteristics of Whether it is earthquake- the survey area X2 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness prone areas

1 = none, 2 = primary school, 3 = Personal X3 education level junior high school, 4 = high school, economic and 5 = university and university above social characteristics Family present situation 1 = poor, 2 = normal, 3 = good, X4 evaluation 4 = excellent, 0 = dimness 1 = frame structure, 2 = civil structure, 3 = brick and concrete Risk exposure X5 Housing structure type structure, 4 = brick and wood structure, 5 = other structure Have you ever experienced X6 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness an earthquake? 1 = not afraid, 2 = a little Are you afraid of the X7 scared, 3 = general scared, 4 = very earthquake? scared, 0 =dimness Do you understand the Input X8 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness earthquake hazard? Have you prepared an Risk perception X9 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness emergency package? 1 = have ability to rebuild, Once the earthquake 2 = government subsidy small happened, your house part, X10 collapsed. Do you have the 3 = government to bear half, ability to rebuild your 4 = government to bear more house? than half, 5 = government to bear all Has the government done knowledge of X11 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation? Government Does the government Action X12 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness reinforce your house? Has the government X13 provided you with an 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness emergency package?

How can the 1 = no help, 2 = can only help a X14 government help you after small part, 3 = can help half, 4 = the earthquake? can help most, 0 = dimness

Have you been exposed to Y1 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness earthquake insurance? Do you think you need Y2 to insure housing 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness earthquake insurance? If the Government implements the policy of 2=Depending on the price， Y3 farmhouse earthquake 1=Yes，0=No，-1=Dimness Earthquake insurance, will you consider Output insurance needs buying? What is your maximum 0-20%———————above annual willingness to pay 50% 1——————— Y4 for policy farmhouse ———5 0 = do earthquake insurance? not want to buy 5-50 yuan——more than 300 What is your maximum yuan 1————————— Y5 willingness to pay for —5 0 = do not commercial insurance? want to buy The 14 input variables X1-X14 and the five output variables Y1-Y5 are introduced into the S-PLUS software. The map values of the 14 input variables and each output variable are calculated by ACE regression. The mapping value of the each input variable is analyzed, we can get the weight of each X to Y, and then according to the weight value, we can see each input variable X on the corresponding degree of the impact of Y, so that the direct factors influencing earthquake insurance needs can be concluded. The descriptive statistics for 19 variables are as follows: Table 3.8- 2 Summary Statistics 3rd Total variable Min 1st Qu. Mean Median Max NA's Std Dev. Qu. N X1 1 2 2.5557 3 3 4 1544 0 0.77686 X2 0 0 0.4385 0 1 1 1544 0 0.49636 X3 1 2 2.4527 2 3 5 1544 0 0.90528 X4 1 2 2.0201 2 2 4 1544 0 0.68612 X5 1 2 2.6159 3 3 5 1544 0 0.88819 X6 0 1 0.8400 1 1 1 1544 0 0.36670 X7 0 2 3.1988 4 4 4 1544 0 1.08962 X8 -1 0 0.5920 1 1 1 1544 0 0.64651 X9 -1 0 0.0894 0 0 1 1544 0 0.29433 50

X10 1 3 3.4644 4 4 5 1544 0 1.08129 X11 -1 0 0.3420 0 1 1 1544 0 0.57007 X12 -1 0 0.1930 0 0 1 1544 0 0.42787 X13 -1 0 0.3685 0 1 1 1544 0 0.57226 X14 0 0 1.7895 2 3 4 1544 0 1.37202 Y1 -1 0 0.0654 0 0 1 1544 0 0.31427 Y2 -1 0 0.1820 0 1 1 1544 0 0.69339 Y3 -1 0 0.7785 1 1 2 1544 0 0.83361 Y4 0 1 1.5777 1 2 5 1544 0 1.06821 Y5 0 1 1.5823 1 2 5 1544 0 1.18523 For each variable X after the ACE regression operation in the software, the following table is obtained for the weighting of the corresponding Y: Table 3.8- 3 Each input corresponds to the weight of the output

variable ty1 ty2 ty3 ty4 ty5 tx1 0.02(0.08) 0.09 0.16 0.04 0.02(0.18) tx2 0.23 0.27 0.2 0.14 0.33 tx3 0.58 0.41 0.64 0.68 0.82 tx4 0.13 0.11 0.05 0.5 0.22(0.31) tx5 0.1 0.03(0.25) 0.24 0.11 0.03(0.12) tx6 0.05 0.06 0.01 0.06 0.08 tx7 0.18 0.24 0.12(0.42) 0.19 0.35 tx8 0.14 0.15(0.28) 0.26 0.27 0.3 tx9 0.13(0.31) 0.16(1.17) 0.01(0.32) 0.08(0.65) 0.13(0.44) tx10 0.26 0.06 0.13 0.43 0.54 tx11 0 0.12(0.25) 0.02(0.25) 0.04 0.02(0.08) tx12 0.11(0.49) 0.03(0.31) 0.06(0.53) 0.11(0.43) 0.03(0.25) tx13 0.02(0.2) 0.04 0.03(0.09) 0.09(0.11) 0.02(0.31) tx14 0.07 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.18 In order to more intuitively display the effect of each input variable on the output variable, it is reflected in the following line graph. The ty represents most of the cases. The point where ty * and ty do not overlap indicates that the input variable X appears individually and presents a large difference.

Y1-X 0.7

0.6 0.58 0.5 0.49 0.4 ty1 0.3 0.31 0.26 ty1* 0.23 0.2 0.18 0.2 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.1 0.08 0.1 0.05 0.07 0 0.02 0 0.02 tx1 tx2 tx3 tx4 tx5 tx6 tx7 tx8 tx9 tx10 tx11 tx12 tx13 tx14

Figure 3.8- 2 the weight of the input variable X to the output variable Y1 Y2-X 0.45 0.4 0.41 0.35 0.3 0.31 0.3 0.27 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 ty2 0.2 ty2* 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.04 0 tx1 tx2 tx3 tx4 tx5 tx6 tx7 tx8 tx9 tx10 tx11 tx12 tx13 tx14

Figure 3.8- 3 the weight of the input variable X to the output variable Y2 Y3-X 0.7 0.64 0.6 0.53 0.5 0.4 0.42 ty3 0.3 0.32 ty3* 0.24 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.1 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.03 0 0.01 0.01 0.02 tx1 tx2 tx3 tx4 tx5 tx6 tx7 tx8 tx9 tx10 tx11 tx12 tx13 tx14

Figure 3.8- 4 the weight of the input variable X to the output variable Y3

Y4-X 0.8

0.7 0.68 0.65 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.43 0.43 ty4 0.3 ty42* 0.27 0.2 0.19 0.2 0.14 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.1 0.08 0.09 0.04 0.06 0.04 0 tx1 tx2 tx3 tx4 tx5 tx6 tx7 tx8 tx9 tx10 tx11 tx12 tx13 tx14

Figure 3.8- 5 the weight of the input variable X to the output variable Y4

Y5-X 0.9 0.8 0.82 0.7 0.6 0.54 0.5 0.44 ty5 0.4 ty5* 0.33 0.35 0.3 0.31 0.3 0.31 0.25 0.22 0.2 0.18 0.18 0.12 0.13 0.1 0.08 0.08 0 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 tx1 tx2 tx3 tx4 tx5 tx6 tx7 tx8 tx9 tx10 tx11 tx12 tx13 tx14

Figure 3.8- 6 the weight of the input variable X to the output variable Y5

The above five groups of line graphs well show the impact that14 input variables make on 5 output variables. The value lager the corresponding impact would be larger too, which plays a decisive role. The specific analysis is as follows: Y1 is whether the residents have contacted or known about earthquake insurance.

By weight comparison, X3 has the greatest influence on Y1. X2 and X10 have a slightly larger impact than other input, and the weight of X9 and X12 is very large, which shows the individual character. It can be seen that the education level of rural residents has a direct impact on whether they have contacted with earthquake insurance, and whether

53 it is earthquake-prone areas and their capacity of housing reconstruction after the earthquake have a certain impact on the output variables, but compared to education level, the impact is slightly smaller. Whether the residents themselves prepared earthquake emergency supplies or not reflects the residents of the earthquake perception is relatively strong, and residents who individually prepared their own earthquake emergency supplies, own strong earthquake awareness. They might have contacted or understood the earthquake insurance. The government's reinforcement of houses for individual farmers also makes some famers aware of the earthquake, and might have contacted or understood the earthquake insurance. Y2 is whether the residents need to insure for the earthquake. According to the weight analysis, X3 has the greatest influence on Y2, followed by X2, X7 and X14, which have a great influence on Y2. Besides, X8 and X11 have a certain influence on Y2, and X5 and X12 have some large weights. It can be seen that the education level of rural residents has the greatest impact on the variable, followed by whether it is in earthquake-prone areas, whether it is afraid of earthquakes and post-earthquake government assistance. If residents feel that they are in the earthquake-prone areas, they need to consider insuring for the earthquake. the residents who be fear of the earthquake may more cherish life, and they also need to insure for the earthquake. The government only to help a small part after the earthquake, most part of reconstruction must be from themselves, which also makes the rural residents feel more need to insure for the earthquake, to reduce their own losses brought by earthquake. For the X5 housing structure category, there are a few people think they need to get earthquake insurance, probably because the house is new, and may because of their abundant economic potentiality, good building structure. This kind of situation will also be a reason to buy earthquake insurance. Y3 is whether the residents will consider the policy-based agricultural housing earthquake insurance. Comparative analysis still shows that the education level has the greatest impact on the variable, followed by the type of housing structure. The understanding of earthquake hazards and post-earthquake government help are also have influence on the insurance. Government help will help farmers to trust the 54 government and support the government’s earthquake insurance policies. X7 and X12 appear individually larger weights. Fear of earthquake indicating high risk perception will increase purchase. Those who have received government housing consolidation will consider buying it.

Y4 is the annual highest willingness of resident to pay for the policy-based agricultural housing earthquake insurance. The variables X3, X4 and X10 have great influence on the willingness, namely, the residents' education level, the assessment of the status of residents’ families, and the ability of housing reconstruction, which directly affects the residents’ willingness to pay. Y5 is the annual highest willingness of resident to pay for commercial earthquake insurance. Also, the biggest influence factor is X3, residents’ level of education. The second is the X10, reconstruction ability of residents after the earthquake. The ability to rebuild indirectly reflects the actual economic situation of the residents. In addition, the four variables of X2, X4, X7 and X8 also play a certain role in Y5. According to the above analysis, we can see that raising the overall education level of rural residents plays a key role in the implementation of earthquake insurance. High degree of education will increase insurance awareness. It will increase the understanding of earthquake insurance and the purchase of earthquakes Insurance. At the same time, some of the government's actions will also affect the residents on their earthquake insurance awareness, so the government should increase the propaganda of earthquake insurance. Through the research we can find that some local government propaganda is not in place, which makes the rural residents lack of earthquake insurance awareness, and affects the implementation of policy-oriented farmhouse earthquake insurance. In addition, the individual perception of the earthquake also affects its demands for earthquake insurance. Therefore, the government can enhance the awareness of the risk of rural residents by increasing the publicity, so as to better promote the policy of agricultural housing earthquake insurance. The smooth implementation of policy-based earthquake insurance will have a very positive effect on the rapid reconstruction of rural residents. Through investigation and study, we found that most of the rural residents facing with the earthquake disaster did 55 not feel they have received enough help from the government. The government’s help for the reconstruction of the post-disaster area is not obvious enough to meet the costs of rebuilding after the earthquake. Most of the post-disaster reconstruction costs for residents are paid by themselves. If the e Policy-based agricultural housing earthquake insurance can fully implementing, it will enable farmers in affected areas to see hope in post-disaster reconstruction, reducing the total dependence of farmers on the government and at the same time, it can reduce the economic pressure on governments to face catastrophe risks The implementation of the earthquake insurance policy can comprehensively improve residents’ awareness of risk perception, raising individual awareness of risk prevention, and can cultivate residents’ awareness of catastrophe insurance and enhance residents’ overall awareness of disaster prevention and mitigation[23]. Therefore, if the policy of farmhouse earthquake insurance system can be implemented on a large scale, the attitude of rural residents in the face of earthquake risk will be greatly changed. The impact of earthquake disaster on farmers will be minimized, and the farmers can be quickly recovered after catastrophe, improving the living conditions of residents after the disaster and reducing the loss of residents’ property after the disaster. In addition, the implementation of catastrophe insurance is conducive to social stability, especially for rural residents, whose education level is not high and t is likely that some of the rumors will result in their improper behaviors. The implementation of policy-oriented earthquake insurance in Yunnan Province will greatly increases rural residents’ awareness of earthquake risks. It will not blindly deal with disasters such as earthquakes, thus greatly reducing the social instability in catastrophe[24]. Through the trial of earthquake insurance pilot, popularizing insurance in disaster areas to protect the personal property safety of the residents is good to improve rural residents in Yunnan province and even the entire society’s comprehensive quality.

Part 2 Catastrophe Risk Model of Urban and

Rural Residential in Earthquake

Seismic disaster risk analysis is to make quantitative analysis and estimate for the possibility of suffering different magnitude seismic disaster in risk areas and the consequences caused by it on the basis of full research on disaster-deducing factors and disaster-bearing factors of risk areas and to measure the extent of disaster risk according to the classification standard of disaster grade, which provides a scientific basis for making corresponding measures to reduce disaster loss[25]. This process includes three important parts: seismic risk analysis, building vulnerability analysis, and seismic harm analysis. This paper puts emphasis on studying the seismic risk analysis and building vulnerability analysis.

Chapter 4 Earthquake Risk Model

4.1 Seismic Hazard Analysis

Seismic hazard analysis refers to the probability method of determining the seismic parameters (intensity, acceleration, velocity, response spectrum, etc.) in a given area which is beyond a given value in a certain period of design reference in the future. Its purpose is to predict the probability of occurrence of various types of earthquakes in a certain period in the future, that is, the probability of occurrence or surpassing of different intensity earthquakes within a certain period of time. At present, both China and other foreign countries adopt the classical method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to compose the national seismic zonal map. Since 1990, China has adopted the method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (CPSHA) in the compilation of zoning maps of earthquakes (seismic intensity)[29]. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method was first proposed by Cornell (1968), and in the initial proposed method of probabilistic seismicity (PSHA), the seismicity of each potential source region fulfills three basic assumptions:: ① Earthquakes in the potential source area are evenly distributed；②The magnitude of the earthquakes in the potential seismic source region satisfies the G-R distribution; ③ The probability of earthquake occurrence in the potential earthquake source area 58 satisfies the Poisson distribution. Based on the theoretical framework, combined with the characteristics of time-space heterogeneity of seismic activity in China, a large number of scientific research results of medium and long-term prediction of earthquake in our country are absorbed, After some key links are improved, the method of probabilistic seismic hazard considering spatial-temporal heterogeneity of seismicity is called CPSHA. CPSHA method is based on the basic principle of seismic hazard probability analysis and the seismic activity model is also improved by the complex hierarchical potential seismic source zone model (Lu Shoude, 2006).It can be seen from the above assumptions that the overall level and intensity characteristics of seismic activity in the future are related to the seismic statistical area ,which are the statistical characteristics of seismicity in all the potential seismic source areas as a whole. However, the local expression of seismic activity in different parts of space is controlled by the potential source regions and is related to the potential seismic source area. According to these three assumptions, the CPSHA method establishes a seismic activity model for potential hypocenters. Combined with the probabilistic model of ground motions, the formula for calculating the hazard of site-based earthquakes can be synthetically obtained. The probability of the peak acceleration of ground motions occurring at the site is greater than or equal to the given value is:

NNm Nz ks       P( A a ) 1 exp(  P(,(,)) A a mj x y ki j1 k  1 i  1 f 2exp[ (m m )]  k ki,0 mj  k j sh(k  m )d x d y ) A 1 exp[  (m  m )] 2 ki k uzk 0 （1） N In the formula: N Z is the number of seismic statistical area; ks is the number of

A potential seismic source area in the kth seismic statistical area. ki is the ith

yx ),( potential seismic source area in the kth earthquake statistics area. ki is the spatial point in the ith potential seismic source area in the kth earthquake statistics

N m area; m is discrete magnitude of the number of files ; j is the center value of the 59

1 1  mmmmm jth magnitude file , j 2 jj 2 , and m is the magnitude

  b ln10 b interval; kk ; k is the coefficient of G-R relationship in the kth seismic

m m statistical area; 0 is the lower limit of magnitude of earthquake statistics; uzk is the

f upper limit of the magnitude of the kth earthquake statistics; ki, mj is the probability

m j of occurrence of files in the ith potential seismic source area . Aki is the ith potential seismic source area in the kth earthquake statistics area. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis mainly includes the collation and analysis of basic data, the analysis of tectonic environment of the earthquake occurrence, the division of potential hypocenters, the determination of seismic activity parameters and the determination of the relationship between the attenuation of ground motions, the calculation of ground motion parameters, the probability of earthquake hazard, ground motion parameters adjustment and other technical aspects. The result of the CPSHA method is the probability of surpassing a given ground motion parameter at a particular site and meets primarily the seismic fortification requirements of the construction project. The seismic risk analysis required for

  earthquake insurance is the annual incidence ( ( 1 aAa 2 ) )of a given peak ground acceleration at a given field point corresponding to the seismic data (seismic intensity). According to the total probability formula, supposing the annual incidence rate of the peak acceleration of ground motion greater than or equal to a given value is   expressed as aA )( , then Eq. (1) can be expressed as:

（  aAP exp(1)( aA ))

 Supposing a given ground motion peak acceleration is aa 21 , then the occurrence rate of a given ground motion peak acceleration range is   ）   ） ( 1 2 () 2 ( aAaAaAa 1 (2)

 Therefore, by the result of the CPSHA method, the annual probability aAP )( is obtained, and the occurrence rate of the given ground motion peak acceleration range   is ( 1 aAa 2 ) .

Since 2000, the state has strengthened the construction of earthquake monitoring system, the layout of the seismic network is more reasonable, achieving full coverage of the Chinese mainland. Implementation of the first phase and the second phase of national GPS observation system have significantly improved China's deformation monitoring and geophysical monitoring capabilities. Throughout the country, the city has conducted active fault surveys and active fault surveys in the main fault zones. Through the monitoring of the observation system and large-scale surveys, a great deal of new information has been obtained. At the same time, the national science and technology plan have been supporting key research projects on the mechanism of strong earthquakes in Mainland China and the key technologies for the prediction of strong earthquakes and have obtained new breakthroughs and understanding of the hazard of strong earthquakes in mainland China. Some advanced models and key technologies have been formed 错误!未找到引用源。. According to the probability expression of the seismic activity model of the CPSHA method, it is known that the seismic activity parameters include the seismicity parameters and the seismic activity parameters of the potential seismic source area. The compilation of the seismic parameter zoning map of China (B18306-2015), fully absorbs and adopts the new information, achievements and understanding. The basic data and model method are used for compiling GB18306-2015,"seismic parameter zoning map of China”. According to the above method, the probability of annual transgression is calculated ( ) and the annual incidence rate of peak acceleration of a given ground motion( )is obtained by locating the government of 9 townships in Eryuan County, Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province. The calculation results show that the probability of exceeding probability of 9 towns and villages in Eryuan County is in accordance with the surface parameters of GB18306-2015 " seismic parameter zoning map of China". 61

The important basic and mandatory national standards for national seismic safety GB18306-2015 "seismic parameter zoning map of China “meet the requirements of today's social and economic development ,which is an inevitable result of the development of science and technology. Benefiting from the significant expansion of basic information, Experiences and lessons from major catastrophic earthquake events can follow the international trends (Gao Mengtan, 2015).

4.2 Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazard in Eryuan County, Dali County

According to the relationship between earthquake statistics area and potential source area, seismic activity parameter and ground vibration attenuation, the seismic hazard analysis package is adopted. Nine villages and towns are calculated separately, Using the conversion method and empirical coefficient in the mapping work of China seismic parameter zoning map".(2001), the calculated peak acceleration of bedrock of 9 towns and villages in Eryuan County is converted into the acceleration peak of general site and the corresponding relationship is as follows:  hs aka rs (3)

1.25 a 62.5 gal  r ks 1.25  ( ar  62.5) /1250 62.5gal ar  375 gal (4)  1.0 ar  375 gal

a In the formula: hs is the peak acceleration for the general field (medium hard); ar k is the peak acceleration of rock ground.； s is the conversion coefficient. According to the relationship between the peak acceleration of ground motion and the earthquake intensity in Class Ⅱ site (Table 4.2-1), the relationship between the seismic intensity of each site and the annual incidence of ground motion peak was obtained.

Table 4.2- 1 Relationship Between Earthquake Vibration and Earthquake Intensity of Class II site Earthquake Ⅵ Ⅶ Ⅷ Ⅸ ≥Ⅸ intensity Earthquake peak  acceleration of 04.0 amax II 09.0 09.0  a  19.0 19.0  a  38.0 38.0  a  75.0 a  75.0 max II max II max II max II Class II/g

4.2.1 Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazard in NiujieTown

Niujie Town, Eryuan County (99.9859E, 26.2568N) belongs to the 0.30g partition of "the zoning map of China earthquake peak acceleration" (GB18306-2015). The calculation shows that the potential sources of the main function of the engineering site are LiJiang V3-2a-27,YongSheng V3-2a-24,DaLi V3-2a-26,WeiXi V3-2b-20,the background source NO.1097, the background source NO.1116.The

results are listed in Table 4.2-2. Table 4.2- 2 The Contribution of the Main Potential Source Area to the Risk of Earthquake Hazard of Niujie Town Amax(gal) P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N V3-2a-27 .754E-01 .589E-01 .222E-01 .109E-01 .237E-02 .264E-03 0 0 0 V3-2a-24 .751E-01 .615E-01 .403E-01 .288E-02 0 0 0 0 0 V3-2a-26 .404E-01 .270E-01 .579E-02 .127E-02 0 0 0 0 0 V3-2a-20 .503E-01 .290E-01 .502E-02 .706E-03 0 0 0 0 0 The background .687E-01 .402E-01 .415E-02 .448E-03 0 0 0 0 0 source NO.1097 The background .295E-01 .118E-01 .379E-03 .117E-04 0 0 0 0 0 source NO.1116 The annual transcendence probability and annual incidence of earthquake

acceleration peak are listed in Table 4.2-2, and the annual rate of the peak of earthquake

acceleration is shown in figure 4.2-1. The black line in the graph is the annual  transcendental probability curve aAP )( , the black line in the graph is the annual

（  transcendental probability curve aA ) , the blue line is the interval rate curve.

（  1 aAa 2 )

Table 4.2- 3 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration Value of Niujie Town Peak Annual Interval annual The peak Annual Conversion accelerationof incidence incidence accelerationof the surpassing l coefficient/ class II field bedrock/gal probability Ks ground （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) motion /gal 5 6.61E-01 1.25 6.25 1.0818E+00 10 4.06E-01 1.25 12.50 5.2088E-01 5.6088E-01 15 2.74E-01 1.25 18.75 3.2021E-01 2.0067E-01 20 2.02E-01 1.25 25.00 2.2565E-01 9.4559E-02 30 1.32E-01 1.25 37.50 1.4156E-01 8.4083E-02 40 9.83E-02 1.25 50.00 1.0347E-01 3.8090E-02 50 7.68E-02 1.25 62.50 7.9909E-02 2.3564E-02 60 6.17E-02 1.25 75.00 6.3686E-02 1.6224E-02 70 5.02E-02 1.24 87.08 5.1504E-02 1.2182E-02 80 4.13E-02 1.24 98.88 4.2177E-02 9.3268E-03 90 3.44E-02 1.23 110.52 3.5006E-02 7.1715E-03 100 2.86E-02 1.22 122.00 2.9017E-02 5.9887E-03 125 1.87E-02 1.20 150.00 1.8877E-02 1.0140E-02 150 1.26E-02 1.18 177.00 1.2680E-02 6.1970E-03 175 8.74E-03 1.16 203.00 8.7784E-03 3.9016E-03 200 6.25E-03 1.14 228.00 6.2696E-03 2.5088E-03 250 3.37E-03 1.10 275.00 3.3757E-03 2.8939E-03 300 1.94E-03 1.06 318.00 1.9419E-03 1.4338E-03 350 1.17E-03 1.02 357.00 1.1707E-03 7.7120E-04 400 7.34E-04 1.00 400.00 7.3427E-04 4.3642E-04 450 4.80E-04 1.00 450.00 4.8012E-04 2.5415E-04 500 3.16E-04 1.00 500.00 3.1605E-04 1.6407E-04 600 1.49E-04 1.00 600.00 1.4901E-04 1.6704E-04 700 7.23E-05 1.00 700.00 7.2303E-05 7.6708E-05 800 3.52E-05 1.00 800.00 3.5201E-05 3.7102E-05 900 1.77E-05 1.00 900.00 1.7700E-05 1.7500E-05 1000 9.46E-06 1.00 1000.00 9.4600E-06 8.2401E-06 According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of ground motion of

Class Ⅱ site in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence (（  aA ) in Table 4.2-3 is linearly interpolated ,through which the annual incidence, corresponding to the interval of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained. Thus, the annual incidence rate corresponding to the intensity is obtained,

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu

0.40

0.20 1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  aA a))A

miu1-miu2（ 1  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 1 Annual Surpassing Probability of Peak Acceleration and Annual Incidence Curve of Niujie Town Table 4.2- 4 Relationship Between Earthquake Intensity and Annual Incidence Rate of Niujie Town Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake Peak acceleration of class II field intensity ground motion/gal （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 )

39 1.3699E-01 Ⅵ 8.6216E-02 88 5.0777E-02 88 5.0777E-02 Ⅶ 3.9447E-02 186 1.1329E-02 186 1.1329E-02 Ⅷ 1.0321E-02 373 1.0083E-03 373 1.0083E-03 Ⅸ 9.4935E-04 736 5.8946E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 5.8946E-05

4.2.2 Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazard in SanYing Town

SanYing Town（99.9974E，26.2286N）belongs to 0.30 g partition of the zoning map of China of earthquake peak acceleration ( GB18306 - 2015 ) . The calculations indicate that the potential sources of the main role of the project site are LiJiang V3-2a-27,YongSheng,V3-2a-24,DaLi V3-2a-26,WeiXi V3-2b-20, the background source NO.1097 and the background source NO.1116.The results are shown in Table 4.2-5.

Table 4.2- 5 Contribution of the Main Potential Source Area to the Earthquake Hazard Probability of San Ying Town

Amax(gal) P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N

V3-2a-27 .741E-01 .576E-01 .215E-01 .104E-01 .232E-02 .277E-03 0 0 0

V3-2a-24 .754E-01 .622E-01 .406E-01 .386E-02 0 0 0 0 0

V3-2a-26 .418E-01 .281E-01 .633E-02 .158E-02 .117E-04 0 0 0 0

V3-2a-20 .486E-01 .276E-01 .447E-02 .531E-03 0 0 0 0 0

The background .693E-01 .406E-01 .418E-02 .453E-03 0 0 0 0 0 source NO.1097

The background .279E-01 .108E-01 .282E-03 .562E-05 0 0 0 0 0 source NO.1116

The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of ground motion acceleration are listed in Table 4.2-6. The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence curve of the peak value of ground motion acceleration are shown in Figure 4.2-2.The black line in the figure is the annual  （  probability curve aAP )( ，the red line is the annual incidence curve aA )

（  and the blue line is the interval annual incidence curve. 1 aAa 2 ) . Table 4.2- 6 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration Value of Sun Ying Town Peak Annual Interval annual The peak Annual accelerationof Conversion incidence incidence acceleration of surpassing class II field coefficient/Ks the bedrock/gal probability ground motion （  1 aAa 2 ) /gal 5 6.62E-01 1.25 6.25 1.0847E+00 10 4.07E-01 1.25 12.50 5.2256E-01 5.6215E-01 15 2.74E-01 1.25 18.75 3.2021E-01 2.0236E-01 20 2.02E-01 1.25 25.00 2.2565E-01 9.4559E-02 30 1.32E-01 1.25 37.50 1.4156E-01 8.4083E-02 40 9.84E-02 1.25 50.00 1.0358E-01 3.7979E-02 50 7.70E-02 1.25 62.50 8.0126E-02 2.3458E-02 60 6.19E-02 1.25 75.00 6.3899E-02 1.6227E-02 70 5.05E-02 1.24 87.08 5.1820E-02 1.2079E-02

Peak Annual Interval annual The peak Annual accelerationof Conversion incidence incidence acceleration of surpassing class II field coefficient/Ks the bedrock/gal probability ground motion （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) /gal 80 4.16E-02 1.24 98.88 4.2490E-02 9.3297E-03 90 3.47E-02 1.23 110.52 3.5316E-02 7.1737E-03 100 2.89E-02 1.22 122.00 2.9326E-02 5.9905E-03 125 1.89E-02 1.20 150.00 1.9081E-02 1.0245E-02 150 1.27E-02 1.18 177.00 1.2781E-02 6.2996E-03 175 8.85E-03 1.16 203.00 8.8894E-03 3.8919E-03 200 6.32E-03 1.14 228.00 6.3401E-03 2.5493E-03 250 3.39E-03 1.10 275.00 3.3958E-03 2.9443E-03 300 1.95E-03 1.06 318.00 1.9519E-03 1.4439E-03 350 1.17E-03 1.02 357.00 1.1707E-03 7.8122E-04 400 7.34E-04 1.00 400.00 7.3427E-04 4.3642E-04 450 4.78E-04 1.00 450.00 4.7811E-04 2.5616E-04 500 3.14E-04 1.00 500.00 3.1405E-04 1.6406E-04 600 1.48E-04 1.00 600.00 1.4801E-04 1.6604E-04 700 7.18E-05 1.00 700.00 7.1803E-05 7.6208E-05 800 3.51E-05 1.00 800.00 3.5101E-05 3.6702E-05 900 1.78E-05 1.00 900.00 1.7800E-05 1.7300E-05 1000 9.56E-06 1.00 1000.00 9.5600E-06 8.2401E-06

According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of class Ⅱ ground motion in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence rate , corresponding to the interval value of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained , by linear interpolation of the annual incidence rate of Table 4.2-7. The annual incidence rate corresponding to intensity is obtained,

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu

0.40

0.20 1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  aA a))A

（miu1-miu21  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 2 Annual Increase Probability and Annual Incidence Curve of the Peak Acceleration of Sanying Town Table 4.2- 7 Relationship Between Earthquake Intensity and Annual Incidence in Sanying Town

Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake Peak acceleration of class II field intensity ground motion /gal （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 )

39 1.3701E-01 Ⅵ 8.5914E-02 88 5.1092E-02 88 5.1092E-02 Ⅶ 3.9658E-02 186 1.1434E-02 186 1.1434E-02 Ⅷ 1.0426E-02 373 1.0083E-03 373 1.0083E-03 Ⅸ 9.4971E-04 736 5.8590E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 5.8590E-05

4.2.3 Probability Analysis of Earthquake Hazard in Bihu Town

Cibuhu town of Eryuan County(99.9452E, 26.1087N) belongs to the 0.3g partition of the zoning map of China of earthquake peak acceleration ( GB18306 - 2015 ) . The results show that the potential sources of the main potentials for the engineering site are Lijiang V3-2a-27, Dali V3-2a-26, Yongsheng V3-2a-24, Visex V3-

2b-20, the background source 1097, the background source 1116 source.The results are listed in Table 4.2-8. Table 4.2- 8 Contribution of the Main Potential Source Area to the Seismic Hazard Probability of Cibihu Amax(gal)

P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N

V3-2a-27 .547E-01 .414E-01 .145E-01 .646E-02 .131E-02 .150E-03 0 0 0 V3-2a-26 .388E-01 .278E-01 .754E-02 .326E-02 .523E-03 .311E-04 0 0 0 V3-2a-24 .583E-01 .481E-01 .294E-01 .122E-02 0 0 0 0 0 V3-2a-20 .361E-01 .200E-01 .271E-02 .383E-03 0 0 0 0 0 background source .525E-01 .299E-01 .315E-02 .360E-03 0 0 0 0 0 1097 background source .190E-01 .666E-02 .131E-03 .127E-05 0 0 0 0 0 1116

The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are listed in Table 4.2-9. The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence curve of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are shown in Figure 4.2-3. The black line is the annual overtaking probability curve, the red line is the annual incidence curve and the blue line is the annual incidence rate curve. Table 4.2- 9 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration Values of Cibihu Town Peak The peak Annual Interval annual accelerationof acceleration Annual surpassing Conversion incidence incidence class II field of the probability coefficient/Ks ground motion （  aA ) （  aAa ) bedrock/gal 1 2 /gal 5 6.37E-01 1.25 6.25 1.0134E+00 10 3.81E-01 1.25 12.50 4.7965E-01 5.3370E-01 15 2.49E-01 1.25 18.75 2.8635E-01 1.9330E-01 20 1.79E-01 1.25 25.00 1.9723E-01 8.9117E-02 30 1.11E-01 1.25 37.50 1.1766E-01 7.9574E-02 40 7.99E-02 1.25 50.00 8.3273E-02 3.4385E-02 50 6.08E-02 1.25 62.50 6.2727E-02 2.0546E-02 60 4.78E-02 1.25 75.00 4.8980E-02 1.3747E-02 70 3.83E-02 1.24 87.08 3.9053E-02 9.9275E-03 80 3.11E-02 1.24 98.88 3.1594E-02 7.4589E-03 90 2.57E-02 1.23 110.52 2.6036E-02 5.5579E-03 100 2.12E-02 1.22 122.00 2.1428E-02 4.6081E-03 69

Peak The peak Annual Interval annual accelerationof acceleration Annual surpassing Conversion incidence incidence class II field of the probability coefficient/Ks ground motion （  aA ) （  aAa ) bedrock/gal 1 2 /gal 125 1.37E-02 1.20 150.00 1.3795E-02 7.6332E-03 150 9.23E-03 1.18 177.00 9.2729E-03 4.5219E-03 175 6.43E-03 1.16 203.00 6.4508E-03 2.8221E-03 200 4.62E-03 1.14 228.00 4.6307E-03 1.8201E-03 250 2.52E-03 1.10 275.00 2.5232E-03 2.1075E-03 300 1.47E-03 1.06 318.00 1.4711E-03 1.0521E-03 350 8.93E-04 1.02 357.00 8.9340E-04 5.7768E-04 400 5.63E-04 1.00 400.00 5.6316E-04 3.3024E-04 450 3.69E-04 1.00 450.00 3.6907E-04 1.9409E-04 500 2.45E-04 1.00 500.00 2.4503E-04 1.2404E-04 600 1.14E-04 1.00 600.00 1.1401E-04 1.3102E-04 700 5.49E-05 1.00 700.00 5.4902E-05 5.9105E-05 800 2.64E-05 1.00 800.00 2.6400E-05 2.8501E-05 900 1.30E-05 1.00 900.00 1.3000E-05 1.3400E-05 1000 6.85E-06 1.00 1000.00 6.8500E-06 6.1501E-06

According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of type Ⅱ ground

motion in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence rate , corresponding to the

interval value of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained , by linear

interpolation of the annual incidence rate of Table 4.2-10. The annual incidence rate

corresponding to intensity is obtained,

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu

0.40

0.20 1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  a)A

miu1-miu2（ 1  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 3 Annual Increase Probability and Annual Incidence Curve of the Peak Acceleration of Cibihu town Table 4.2- 10 Relationship Between Earthquake Intensity and Annual Incidence of CiBihu Town Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake Peak acceleration of class II field intensity ground motion/gal （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 )

39 1.1353E-01 Ⅵ 7.5061E-02 88 3.8471E-02 88 3.8471E-02 Ⅶ 3.0175E-02 186 8.2960E-03 186 8.2960E-03 Ⅷ 7.5255E-03 373 7.7052E-04 373 7.7052E-04 Ⅸ 7.2588E-04 736 4.4641E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 4.4641E-05

4.2.4 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Yousuo

Town

Yousuo town of Eryuan (100.0583E, 26.0238N), belongs to 0.20g partition of the zoning map of China of earthquake peak acceleration(GB18306-2015) The results show that the potential sources of the main potential of the engineering site are Yongsheng V3-2a-24, Lijiang V3-2a-27, Dali V3-2a-26, the background source 1097, Weixi V3-2b-20 source, The results are shown in Table4.2-11.

Table 4.2- 11 Contribution of Major Potential Source Area to Earthquake Hazard Probability of Yousuo Town Amax(gal)

P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N

V3-2a-24 .459E-01 .376E-01 .244E-01 .459E-02 0 0 0 0 0 V3-2a-27 .364E-01 .271E-01 .848E-02 .335E-02 .778E-03 .966E-04 0 0 0 V3-2a-26 .317E-01 .234E-01 .691E-02 .315E-02 .619E-03 .655E-04 0 0 0 background source .417E-01 .244E-01 .246E-02 .270E-03 0 0 0 0 0 1097

V3-2b-20 .231E-01 .124E-01 .990E-03 .722E-05 0 0 0 0 0 The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are listed in Table 4.2-12. The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence curve of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are shown in Figure 4.2-4. The black line in the figure is the annual overtaking probability Curve, the red line is the annual incidence curve and the blue line is the annual incidence rate curve. Table 4.2- 12 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration in Yousuo town Peak Interval annual The peak Annual Conversion acceleration of Annual incidence acceleration of surpassing coefficient/K class II field incidence the bedrock/gal probability s ground （  aAa ) （  aA ) 1 2 motion/gal 5 6.00E-1 1.25 6.25 9.1629E-01 10 3.43E-01 1.25 12.50 4.2007E-01 4.9622E-01 15 2.16E-01 1.25 18.75 2.4335E-01 1.7673E-01 20 1.50E-01 1.25 25.00 1.6252E-01 8.0827E-02 30 9.00E-02 1.25 37.50 9.4311E-02 6.8208E-02 40 6.38E-02 1.25 50.00 6.5926E-02 2.8385E-02 50 4.86E-02 1.25 62.50 4.9821E-02 1.6105E-02 60 3.85E-02 1.25 75.00 3.9261E-02 1.0560E-02 70 3.11E-02 1.24 87.08 3.1594E-02 7.6668E-03 80 2.55E-02 1.24 98.88 2.5831E-02 5.7631E-03 90 2.12E-02 1.23 110.52 2.1428E-02 4.4028E-03 100 1.77E-02 1.22 122.00 1.7859E-02 3.5694E-03 125 1.16E-02 1.20 150.00 1.1668E-02 6.1907E-03 150 7.84E-03 1.18 177.00 7.8709E-03 3.7969E-03 175 5.47E-03 1.16 203.00 5.4850E-03 2.3859E-03

Peak Interval annual The peak Annual Conversion acceleration of Annual incidence acceleration of surpassing coefficient/K class II field incidence the bedrock/gal probability s ground （  aAa ) （  aA ) 1 2 motion/gal 200 3.91E-03 1.14 228.00 3.9177E-03 1.5674E-03 250 2.11E-03 1.10 275.00 2.1122E-03 1.8054E-03 300 1.21E-03 1.06 318.00 1.2107E-03 9.0150E-04 350 7.26E-04 1.02 357.00 7.2626E-04 4.8447E-04 400 4.52E-04 1.00 400.00 4.5210E-04 2.7416E-04 450 2.93E-04 1.00 450.00 2.9304E-04 1.5906E-04 500 1.91E-04 1.00 500.00 1.9102E-04 1.0202E-04 600 8.82E-05 1.00 600.00 8.8204E0 1.0281E-04 700 4.26E-05 1.00 700.00 4.2601E-05 4.5603E-05 800 2.09E-05 1.00 800.00 2.0900E-05 2.1701E-05 900 1.06E-05 1.00 900.00 1.0600E-05 1.0300E-05 1000 5.69E-06 1.00 1000.00 5.6900E-06 4.9100E-06

According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of class Ⅱ ground motion in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence rate, corresponding to the interval value of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained , by linear interpolation of the annual incidence rate of Table 4.2-13. The annual incidence rate corresponding to intensity is obtained, .

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu 0.40

0.20

1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  a)A miu1-miu2 （ 1  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 4 Annual Surpassing Probability of Peak Acceleration and Annual Incidence Curve of Yousuo town

Table 4.2- 13 Relationship Between Seismic Intensity and Annual Incidence of Yousuo town Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake Peak acceleration of class II field intensity ground motion/gal （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 )

39 9.0905E-02 Ⅵ 5.9760E-02 88 3.1145E-02 88 3.1145E-02 Ⅶ 2.4100E-02 186 7.0450E-03 186 7.0450E-03 Ⅷ 6.4208E-03 373 6.2425E-04 373 6.2425E-04 Ⅸ 5.8946E-04 736 3.4789E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 3.4789E-05

4.2.5 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the

Dengchuan Town

Dengchuan town of Eryuan (100.0857E, 25.9895N)belongs to 0.20g partition of "the zoning map of China of earthquake peak acceleration " (GB18306-2015) . The results show that the potential sources of the main potential of the engineering site are Yongsheng V3-2a-24, Lijiang V3-2a-27, Dali V3-2a-26, the background source 1097.The results are shown in Table 4.2-14. Table 4.2- 14 Contribution of Major Potential Source Area to Earthquake Hazard Probability of Dengchuan Town Amax(gal)

P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N

V3-2a-24 .471E-01 .386E-01 .250E-01 .565E-02 0 0 0 0 0 V3-2a-27 .326E-01 .244E-01 .741E-02 .345E-02 .742E-03 .912E-04 0 0 0 V3-2a-26 .346E-01 .253E-01 .745E-02 .273E-02 .622E-03 .839E-04 0 0 0

Background .418E-01 .245E-01 .246E-02 .270E-03 0 0 0 0 0 source1097

The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are listed in Table 4.2-15. The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence curve of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are 74 shown in Figure 4.2-5. The black line in the figure is the annual overtaking probability  （  Curve aAP )( , the red line is the annual incidence curve aA ) , and the blue line

（  is the annual incidence rate curve 1 aAa 2 ) . Table 4.2- 15 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of PeakAcceleration in Dengchuan town Peak Annual Interval annual The peak Annual Conversion acceleration of incidence incidence acceleration of surpassing l coefficient/K class II field the bedrock /gal probability s ground motion （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) /gal 5 6.02E-01 1.25 6.25 9.2130E-01 10 3.45E-01 1.25 12.50 4.2312E-01 4.9818E-01 15 2.17E-01 1.25 18.75 2.4462E-01 1.7850E-01 20 1.50E-01 1.25 25.00 1.6252E-01 8.2104E-02 30 9.04E-02 1.25 37.50 9.4750E02 6.7769E-02 40 6.41E-02 1.25 50.00 6.6247E-02 2.8504E-02 50 4.89E-02 1.25 62.50 5.0136E-02 1.6111E-02 60 3.88E-02 1.25 75.00 3.9573E-02 1.0563E-02 70 3.15E-02 1.24 87.08 3.2007E-02 7.5660E-03 80 2.59E-02 1.24 98.88 2.6241E-02 5.7655E-03 90 2.15E-02 1.23 110.52 2.1734E-02 4.5068E-03 100 1.80E-02 1.22 122.00 1.8164E-02 3.5705E-03 125 1.19E-02 1.20 150.00 1.1971E-02 6.1926E-03 150 8.06E-03 1.18 177.00 8.0927E-03 3.8787E-03 175 5.63E-03 1.16 203.00 5.6459E-03 2.4467E-03 200 4.03E-03 1.14 228.00 4.0381E-03 1.6078E-03 250 2.17E-03 1.10 275.00 2.1724E-03 1.8658E-03 300 1.24E-03 1.06 318.00 1.2408E-03 9.3159E-04 350 7.45E-04 1.02 357.00 7.4528E-04 4.9549E-04 400 4.63E-04 1.00 400.00 4.6311E-04 2.8217E-04 450 2.98E-04 1.00 450.00 2.9804E-04 1.6506E-04 500 1.93E-04 1.00 500.00 1.9302E-04 1.0503E-04 600 8.90E-05 1.00 600.00 8.9004E-05 1.0401E-04 700 4.28E-05 1.00 700.00 4.2801E05 4.6203E-05 800 2.09E-05 1.00 800.00 2.0900E-05 2.1901E-05 900 1.07E-05 1.00 900.00 1.0700E-05 1.0200E-05 1000 5.83E-06 1.00 1000.00 5.8300E-06 4.8700E-06

According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of classⅡ ground motion in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence rate , corresponding to the 75

（  interval value of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained , aA ) by linear interpolation of the annual incidence rate of Table 4.2-16. The annual incidence rate （  corresponding to intensity is obtained, 1 aAa 2 ) .

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu 0.40

0.20 1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  a)A

miu1-miu2（ 1  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 5 Annual Surpassing Probability of Peak Acceleration and Annual Incidence Curve of Dengchuan town Table 4.2- 16 Relationship Between Seismic Intensity and Annual Incidence in Dengchuan Town Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake peak acceleration of class II field intensity ground motion /gal

39 9.1330E-02 Ⅵ 5.9773E-02 88 3.1557E-02 88 3.1557E-02 Ⅶ 2.4312E-02 186 7.2457E-03 186 7.2457E-03 Ⅷ 6.6054E-03 373 6.4028E-04 373 6.4028E-04 Ⅸ 6.0537E-04 736 3.4917E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 3.4917E-05

4.2.6 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the

Fengyu Town

Fengyu town of Eryuan (99.9296E, 25.9903N)belongs to the0.20g partition of "the zoning map of China of earthquake peak acceleration " (GB18306-2015). The results show that the potential sources of the main potential of the engineering site are Yongsheng V3-2a-24, Lijiang V3-2a-27, Dali V3-2a-26, the background source 1097, Baoshan V4-2b-02，Yangbi V4-2a-01source, the results are shown in Table 4.2- 17. Table 4.2- 17 Contribution of Major Potential Source Area to Earthquake Hazard Probability of Fengyu Town Amax(gal)

P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N

V3-2a-26 .318E-01 .245E-01 .745E-02 .371E-02 .107E-02 .143E-03 0 0 0 V3-2a-27 .364E-01 .266E-01 .821E-02 .320E-02 .528E-03 .481E-04 0 0 0 V3-2a-24 .427E-01 .355E-01 .197E-01 .618E-03 0 0 0 0 0 .371E-01 .204E-01 .196E-02 .243E-03 0 0 0 0 0 Background source1097

V4-2b-02 .553E-01 .296E-01 .152E-02 .112E-03 0 0 0 0 0 V4-2a-01 .535E-01 .298E-01 .283E-02 .107E-03 0 0 0 0 0 The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are listed in Table 4.2-18.The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence curve of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are shown in Figure 4.2-6. The black line in the figure is the annual overtaking probability  （  Curve aAP )( , the red line is the annual incidence curve aA ) and the blue line

（  is the annual incidence rate curve 1 aAa 2 ) .

Table 4.2- 18 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration of Fengyu town Peak Annualincide Interval annual The peak Annual Conversion acceleration of nce incidence accelerationof surpassing coefficient/K class II field the bedrock/gal probability s ground motion （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) /gal 5 6.14E-01 1.25 6.25 9.5192E-01 10 3.59E-01 1.25 12.50 4.4473E-01 5.0719E-01 15 2.28E-01 1.25 18.75 2.5877E-01 1.8596E-01 20 1.59E-01 1.25 25.00 1.7316E-01 8.5607E-02 30 9.41E-02 1.25 37.50 9.8826E-02 7.4337E-02 40 6.49E-02 1.25 50.00 6.7102E-02 3.1725E-02 50 4.80E-02 1.25 62.50 4.9190E-02 1.7912E-02 60 3.69E-02 1.25 75.00 3.7598E-02 1.1592E-02 70 2.91E-02 1.24 87.08 2.9532E-02 8.0662E-03 80 2.33E-02 1.24 98.88 2.3576E-02 5.9561E-03 90 1.90E-02 1.23 110.52 1.9183E-02 4.3929E-03 100 1.56E-02 1.22 122.00 1.5723E-02 3.4599E-03 125 9.97E-03 1.20 150.00 1.0020E-02 5.7029E-03 150 6.69E-03 1.18 177.00 6.7125E-03 3.3076E-03 175 4.68E-03 1.16 203.00 4.6910E-03 2.0215E-03 200 3.39E-03 1.14 228.00 3.3958E-03 1.2952E-03 250 1.89E-03 1.10 275.00 1.8918E-03 1.5040E-03 300 1.13E-03 1.06 318.00 1.1306E-03 7.6115E-04 350 7.04E-04 1.02 357.00 7.0425E-04 4.2639E-04 400 4.55E-04 1.00 400.00 4.5510E-04 2.4914E-04 450 3.05E-04 1.00 450.00 3.0505E-04 1.5006E-04 500 2.05E-04 1.00 500.00 2.0502E-04 1.0003E-04 600 9.89E-05 1.00 600.00 9.8905E-05 1.0612E-04 700 4.89E-05 1.00 700.00 4.8901E-05 5.0004E-05 800 2.42E-05 1.00 800.00 2.4200E-05 2.4701E-05 900 1.23E-05 1.00 900.00 1.2300E-05 1.1900E-05 1000 6.66E-06 1.00 1000.00 6.6600E-06 5.6401E-06

According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of classⅡ ground motion in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence rate , corresponding to the interval value of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained , by linear interpolation of the annual incidence rate of Table 4.2-19. The annual incidence rate corresponding to intensity is obtained, 78

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu 0.40

0.20 1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  a)A

miu1-miu2（ 1  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 6 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration of Fengyu town Table 4.2- 19 Relationship Between Seismic Intensity and Annual Incidence of Fengyu town Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake Ⅱ class field ground motion peak intensity acceleration/gal （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 )

39 9.5019E-02 Ⅵ 6.5952E-02 88 2.9067E-02 88 2.9067E-02 Ⅶ 2.3055E-02 186 6.0127E-03 186 6.0127E-03 Ⅷ 5.4012E-03 373 6.1154E-04 373 6.1154E-04 Ⅸ 5.7153E-04 736 4.0009E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 4.0009E-05

4.2.7 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the

Qiaohou Town

Qiaohou town of Eryuan (99.7682E, 26.0992N)belongs to 0.20g partition of "the zoning map of China of earthquake peak acceleration " (GB18306-2015).

The results show that the potential sources of the main potential of the engineering site are Yongsheng V3-2a-24, Lijiang V3-2a-27, Dali V3-2a-26, the background source 1097, Yangbi V4-2a-01 source. The results are shown in Table 4.2-20. Table 4.2- 20 Contribution of Major Potential Source Area to Earthquake Hazard Probability of Qiaohou Town Amax(gal)

P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N

V3-2a-27 .387E-01 .288E-01 .962E-02 .378E-02 .731E-03 .794E-04 0 0 0 V3-2a-26 .270E-01 .195E-01 .513E-02 .214E-02 .549E-03 .852E-04 0 0 0 V3-2a-20 .280E-01 .161E-01 .226E-02 .565E-03 .490E-04 0 0 0 0 V4-2b-02 .657E-01 .385E-01 .351E-02 .534E-03 0 0 0 0 0 .327E-01 .165E-01 .153E-02 .199E-03 0 0 0 0 0 Background source1097

V4-2a-01 .422E-01 .181E-01 .117E-02 .103E-03 0 0 0 0 0

The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are listed in Table 4.2-21. The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence curve of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are shown in Figure 4.2-7. The black line in the figure is the annual overtaking probability  （  Curve aAP )( , the red line is the annual incidence curve aA ) and the blue line

（  is the annual incidence rate curve 1 aAa 2 ) . Table 4.2- 21 Annual Surpassing Probability of Peak Accelerationand Annual Incidence of Qiaohou town Peak Annualincide Intervalannual Thepeak Annual Conversion accelerationof nce incidence acceleration of surpassing coefficient/ class II field the bedrock/gal probability Ks ground motion （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) /gal 5 6.12E-01 1.25 6.25 9.4675E-01 10 3.59E-01 1.25 12.50 4.4473E-01 5.0202E-01 15 2.29E-01 1.25 18.75 2.6007E-01 1.8466E-01 20 1.60E-01 1.25 25.00 1.7435E-01 8.5714E-02 30 9.34E-02 1.25 37.50 9.8054E-02 7.6299E-02 40 6.27E-02 1.25 50.00 6.4752E-02 3.3302E-02 50 4.51E-02 1.25 62.50 4.6149E-02 1.8603E-02

Peak Annualincide Intervalannual Thepeak Annual Conversion accelerationof nce incidence acceleration of surpassing coefficient/ class II field the bedrock/gal probability Ks ground motion （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) /gal 60 3.39E-02 1.25 75.00 3.4488E-02 1.1661E-02 70 2.61E-02 1.24 87.08 2.6447E-02 8.0413E-03 80 2.05E-02 1.24 98.88 2.0713E-02 5.7336E-03 90 1.65E-02 1.23 110.52 1.6638E-02 4.0754E-03 100 1.34E-02 1.22 122.00 1.3491E-02 3.1471E-03 125 8.44E-03 1.20 150.00 8.4758E-03 5.0148E-03 150 5.65E-03 1.18 177.00 5.6660E-03 2.8098E-03 175 3.95E-03 1.16 203.00 3.9578E-03 1.7082E-03 200 2.86E-03 1.14 228.00 2.8641E-03 1.0937E-03 250 1.61E-03 1.10 275.00 1.6113E-03 1.2528E-03 300 9.65E-04 1.06 318.00 9.6547E-04 6.4583E-04 350 6.06E-04 1.02 357.00 6.0618E-04 3.5928E-04 400 3.92E-04 1.00 400.00 3.9208E-04 2.1411E-04 450 2.62E-04 1.00 450.00 2.6203E-04 1.3004E-04 500 1.75E-04 1.00 500.00 1.7502E-04 8.7019E-05 600 8.38E-05 1.00 600.00 8.3804E-05 9.1212E-05 700 4.11E-05 1.00 700.00 4.1101E-05 4.2703E-05 800 2.02E-05 1.00 800.00 2.0200E-05 2.0901E-05 900 1.03E-05 1.00 900.00 1.0300E-05 9.9002E-06 1000 5.57E-06 1.00 1000.00 5.5700E-06 4.7300E-06

According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of classⅡ ground motion in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence rate, corresponding to the interval value of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained, by linear interpolation of the annual incidence rate of Table 4.2-22. The annual incidence rate corresponding to intensity is obtained, .

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu 0.40

0.20 1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  a)A

miu1-miu2（ 1  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 7 Annual Surpassing Probability of Peak Acceleration and Annual Incidence Curve of Qiaohou Town Table 4.2- 22 Relationship Between Seismic Intensity and Annual Incidence in Qiaohou town Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake Peakacceleration of class II field intensity ground motion /gal （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 )

39 9.4058E-02 Ⅵ 6.8058E-02 88 2.6000E-02 88 2.6000E-02 Ⅶ 2.0925E-02 186 5.0747E-03 186 5.0747E-03 Ⅷ 4.5482E-03 373 5.2652E-04 373 5.2652E-04 Ⅸ 4.9294E-04 736 3.3577E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 3.3577E-05

4.2.8 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Liantie

Town

Liantie town of Eryuan (99.8025E, 25.9835N), belongs to the 0.20g partition of "the zoning map of China of earthquake peak acceleration " (GB18306-2015). The results show that the potential sources of the main potential of the engineering site are Lijiang V3-2a-27, Dali V3-2a-26, Baoshan V4-2b-02, Yangbi V4-2a-01 Weixi V3-2b-20, the background source 1267. The results are shown in Table 4.2-23.

Table 4.2- 23 Contribution of Major Potential Source Area to Earthquake Hazard Probability of Liantie Town Amax(gal)

P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N

V3-2a-27 .361E-01 .261E-01 .799E-02 .290E-02 .392E-03 .296E-04 0 0 0 V3-2a-26 .293E-01 .217E-01 .612E-02 .270E-02 .720E-03 .115E-03 0 0 0 V4-2b-02 .670E-01 .403E-01 .414E-02 .870E-03 0 0 0 0 0 V4-2a-01 .539E-01 .305E-01 .374E-02 .477E-03 0 0 0 0 0 V3-2a-20 .254E-01 .141E-01 .142E-02 .217E-03 .218E-06 0 0 0 0

Background .418E-01 .183E-01 .140E-02 .157E-03 0 0 0 0 0 source1267

The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are listed in Table 4.2-24. The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence curve of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are shown in Figure 4.2-8. The black line in the figure is the annual overtaking probability  （  Curve aAP )( , the red line is the annual incidence curve aA ) and the blue line

（  is the annual incidence rate curve 1 aAa 2 ) . Table 4.2- 24 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration in Liantie town Peak Annual Interval annual Thepeak Annual accelerationof Conversion incidence incidence acceleration of surpassing class II field coefficient/Ks the bedrock/gal probability ground motion （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) l 5 6.23E-01 1.25 6.25 9.7551E-01 10 3.70E-01 1.25 12.50 4.6204E-01 5.1347E-01 15 2.38E-01 1.25 18.75 2.7181E-01 1.9023E-01 20 1.66E-01 1.25 25.00 1.8152E-01 9.0287E-02 30 9.69E-02 1.25 37.50 1.0192E-01 7.9600E-02 40 6.52E-02 1.25 50.00 6.7423E-02 3.4499E-02 50 4.70E-02 1.25 62.50 4.8140E-02 1.9282E-02 60 3.53E-02 1.25 75.00 3.5938E-02 1.2202E-02 70 2.73E-02 1.24 87.08 2.7680E-02 8.2585E-03 80 2.15E-02 1.24 98.88 2.1734E-02 5.9451E-03 90 1.72E-02 1.23 110.52 1.7350E-02 4.3849E-03 100 1.40E-02 1.22 122.00 1.4099E-02 3.2507E-03 125 8.73E-03 1.20 150.00 8.7683E-03 5.3306E-03

Peak Annual Interval annual Thepeak Annual accelerationof Conversion incidence incidence acceleration of surpassing class II field coefficient/Ks the bedrock/gal probability ground motion （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) l 150 5.76E-03 1.18 177.00 5.7767E-03 2.9917E-03 175 3.97E-03 1.16 203.00 3.9779E-03 1.7988E-03 200 2.83E-03 1.14 228.00 2.8340E-03 1.1439E-03 250 1.54E-03 1.10 275.00 1.5412E-03 1.2928E-03 300 9.03E-04 1.06 318.00 9.0341E-04 6.3778E-04 350 5.55E-04 1.02 357.00 5.5515E-04 3.4825E-04 400 3.54E-04 1.00 400.00 3.5406E-04 2.0109E-04 450 2.34E-04 1.00 450.00 2.3403E-04 1.2004E-04 500 1.54E-04 1.00 500.00 1.5401E-04 8.0016E-05 600 7.25E-05 1.00 600.00 7.2503E-05 8.1509E-05 700 3.51E-05 1.00 700.00 3.5101E-05 3.7402E-05 800 1.71E-05 1.00 800.00 1.7100E-05 1.8000E-05 900 8.75E-06 1.00 900.00 8.7500E-06 8.3501E-06 1000 4.73E-06 1.00 1000.00 4.7300E-06 4.0200E-06

According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of class Ⅱ ground motion in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence rate, corresponding to the interval value of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained, by linear interpolation of the annual incidence rate of Table 4.2-25. The annual incidence rate corresponding to intensity is obtained,

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu 0.40

0.20 1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  a)A

miu1-miu2（ 1  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 8 Annual Surpassing Probability of Peak Acceleration and Annual Incidence Curve of Liantie town

Table 4.2- 25 Relationship between Seismic Intensity and Annual Incidence of Liantie town Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake Peak acceleration of class II field intensity ground motion /gal （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 )

39 9.7782E-02 Ⅵ 7.0566E-02 88 2.7216E-02 88 2.7216E-02 Ⅶ 2.2062E-02 186 5.1540E-03 186 5.1540E-03 Ⅷ 4.6737E-03 373 4.8033E-04 373 4.8033E-04 Ⅸ 4.5171E-04 736 2.8620E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 2.8620E-05

4.2.9 Probability Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard in the Xishan

Town

Xishan town of Eryuan (99.6745E, 25.9614N)belongs to the 0.20g partition of the "the zoning map of China of earthquake peak acceleration "(GB18306-2015) . The results show that the potential sources of the main potential of the engineering site are Baoshan V4-2b-02, Lijiang V3-2a-27, Dali V3-2a-26, Yangbi V4-2a-01 the background source 1267,Weixi V3-2b-20.The results are shown in Table 4.2-26. Table 4.2- 26 Contribution of Major Potential Source Area to Earthquake Hazard Probability of Xishan Town Amax(gal)

P 5. 10. 50. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. N

V4-2b-02 .798E-01 .526E-01 .774E-02 .201E-02 0 0 0 0 0 V3-2a-27 .221E-01 .157E-01 .431E-02 .128E-02 .129E-03 .295E-05 0 0 0 V3-2a-26 .174E-01 .120E-01 .278E-02 .882E-03 .761E-04 0 0 0 0 V4-2a-01 .535E-01 .297E-01 .389E-02 .303E-03 0 0 0 0 0 .504E-01 .243E-01 .233E-02 .296E-03 0 0 0 0 0 Background source1267

V3-2a-20 .167E-01 .920E-02 .752E-03 .709E-04 0 0 0 0 0 The annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are listed in Table 4.2-27. The annual surpassing probability 85 and annual incidence curve of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration are shown in Figure 4.2-9. The black line in the figure is the annual overtaking probability  （  Curve aAP )( , the red line is the annual incidence curve aA ) and the blue line

（  is the annual incidence rate curve 1 aAa 2 ) . Table 4.2- 27 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration in Xishan town Peak Annual Interval annual The peak Annual Conversion acceleration of incidence incidence acceleration of surpassing coefficient/K class II field the bedrock/gal probability s ground motion （  aA ) （  1 aAa 2 ) /gal 5 6.01E-01 1.25 6.25 9.1879E-01 10 3.54E-01 1.25 12.50 4.3696E-01 4.8184E-01 15 2.24E-01 1.25 18.75 2.5360E-01 1.8335E-01 20 1.53E-01 1.25 25.00 1.6605E-01 8.7548E-02 30 8.48E-02 1.25 37.50 8.8613E-02 7.7442E-02 40 5.40E-02 1.25 50.00 5.5513E-02 3.3100E-02 50 3.72E-02 1.25 62.50 3.7910E-02 1.7603E-02 60 2.70E-02 1.25 75.00 2.7371E-02 1.0538E-02 70 2.02E-02 1.24 87.08 2.0407E-02 6.9644E-03 80 1.55E-02 1.24 98.88 1.5621E-02 4.7854E-03 90 1.21E-02 1.23 110.52 1.2174E-02 3.4476E-03 100 9.66E-03 1.22 122.00 9.7070E-03 2.4668E-03 125 5.73E-03 1.20 150.00 5.7465E-03 3.9605E-03 150 3.60E-03 1.18 177.00 3.6065E-03 2.1400E-03 175 2.35E-03 1.16 203.00 2.3528E-03 1.2537E-03 200 1.58E-03 1.14 228.00 1.5812E-03 7.7152E-04 250 7.72E-04 1.10 275.00 7.7230E-04 8.0895E-04 300 4.03E-04 1.06 318.00 4.0308E-04 3.6922E-04 350 2.21E-04 1.02 357.00 2.2102E-04 1.8206E-04 400 1.25E-04 1.00 400.00 1.2501E-04 9.6017E-05 450 7.27E-05 1.00 450.00 7.2703E-05 5.2305E-05 500 4.38E-05 1.00 500.00 4.3801E-05 2.8902E-05 600 1.63E-05 1.00 600.00 1.6300E-05 2.7501E-05 700 6.31E-06 1.00 700.00 6.3100E-06 9.9901E-06 800 2.46E-06 1.00 800.00 2.4600E-06 3.8500E-06 900 9.51E-07 1.00 900.00 9.5100E-07 1.5090E-06 1000 3.85E-07 1.00 1000.00 3.8500E-07 5.6600E-07

According to the interval value of the peak acceleration of classⅡ ground （  motion in Table 4.2-1, the annual incidence rate , aA ) corresponding to the interval value of peak acceleration of ground motion is obtained , by linear interpolation of the annual incidence rate of Table 4.2-28. The annual incidence rate （  corresponding to intensity is obtained, 1 aAa 2 )

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu 0.40

0.20 1a PRO  aAP )( 1a  Miu（  a)A

miu1-miu2（ 1  aAa 2 ) 0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 4.2- 9 Annual Surpassing Probability of Peak Acceleration and Annual Incidence Curve of Xishan town Table 4.2- 28 Relationship Between Seismic Intensity and Annual Incidence of Xishan town Annual incidence Interval annual incidence Earthquake Peak acceleration of class II field intensity ground motion /gal

39 8.4641E-02 Ⅵ 6.4607E-02 88 2.0034E-02 88 2.0034E-02 Ⅶ 1.6861E-02 186 3.1725E-03 186 3.1725E-03 Ⅷ 2.9872E-03 373 1.8530E-04 373 1.8530E-04 Ⅸ 1.8037E-04 736 4.9240E-06 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 4.9240E-06

Chapter 5 Earthquake Vulnerability Model of

Building

5.1 Seismic Vulnerability of Structure

The seismic vulnerability of the structure refers to the probability that the structure will be destroyed at different degrees under the earthquake action of different levels, or the probability that the structure reaches a certain limit state (performance level). It is the characteristic of the structure, and the vulnerability of different buildings is different because of the influence of materials, construction and other factors. The seismic vulnerability analysis of structure includes two parts which are analysis of probabilistic seismic demand and analysis of probability capability. The seismic vulnerability analysis of the structure is of great significance to evaluate the seismic safety of the structure, to resist earthquake and prevent disaster, and to establish the seismic design standard based on reliability[28]. The seismic vulnerability of structures is usually presented by the Damage Probability Matrix (DPM) or Seismic Fragility Curves. Seismic vulnerability curve is calculated by seismic intensity indicators as X-axis, and the state which structural response exceeds the specified damage limit or probability of earthquake loss as Y-axis. It can be obtained by two methods: empirical method and theoretical analysis method. The empirical method needs to collect a great deal of data of the previous earthquake damage and establish the relationship between the earthquake damage of various structures and the ground motion. The method of theoretical analysis usually requires the numerical simulation and multiple time-response analysis of the structure. It is generally believed that the method of earthquake damage prediction can be divided into "empirical method", "theoretical method" and "semi-empirical semi- theoretical method". For the convenience of narration, the existing empirical method in China is further divided into empirical summary method, direct statistical method, equivalent statistical method and expert evaluation method. The theoretical method 88 includes the structural response analysis method, and the method of seismic damage potential belongs to the semi-empirical and semi-theoretical method. Together with the dynamic analysis method, there are seven methods in total[29]. In this paper, the data of earthquake disaster loss assessment in Yunnan Province (mainly from 1993 to 2015) provided by the Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, the data of earthquake disaster losses assessment in mainland China except Yunnan Province (mainly from 1992-2005) and the earthquake damage data of modern buildings based on earthquake simulation (analysis of computer numerical simulation, analysis of shaking table test simulation) are collected, and this paper also collates the data of disaster loss assessment. According to the data of earthquake disaster loss assessment, the structure of buildings in Yunnan area can be divided into frame structure, brick-concrete structure, brick-wood structure and civil structure. And for the new modern buildings, the structure can be divided into six types which are reinforced concrete shear wall structure, frame shear wall structure, frame structure, brick-concrete structure, tube structure and hybrid structure. The damage grade of building construction: According to the relevant provisions of the " Part 4 in Earthquake Site Work: Assessment of Disaster Direct Losses" (GB2011), the damage grade of “non-simple houses” (frame structure and brick- concrete structure) is divided into five grades: basically intact, slightly damaged, moderately damaged, severely damaged, and completely destroyed, and the damage grade of “simple houses” (brick-wood structure and civil structure) is divided into three grades: basically intact, damaged and destroyed. The damage ratio of the building refers to the ratio of the damaged area to the total area surveyed, which shall be determined by the different types of housing construction and different damage grades. According to the damaged area of the sampled buildings which are at the different damaged grades and the total area of various types of buildings, the damage ratio of various sampled buildings at different damage grade can be obtained. The ratio of building construction loss is the ratio of the cost of per unit area to unite price of rebuilding when repairing or rebuilding a certain type of buildings at different damaged grades. 89

The national standard " Earthquake Scene Work Part 4: Disaster Direct Loss Assessment" (GB/T18208.4-2011) stipulates the range of the damage and loss ratio of buildings (see the table below). During the actual disaster assessment process, the disaster assessment team makes value within the range of the two tables stipulated according to the investigation. Table 5.1- 1 Loss ratio of non-simple houses（%） Completely Severely Moderately Slightly Damage grade Basically intact destroyed damaged damaged damaged Value range 81～100 46～80 16～45 6～15 0～5 Table 5.1- 2 Loss ratio of simple house（%） Damage level Destroyed Damaged Basically intact Value range 80～100 30～50 0～5

5.2 Seismic Vulnerability Matrix of Buildings in Yunnan Province

Note: Seismic intensity classification shown in the following tables is according to China National Standard GB/T17742-2008 “The Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale”. Table 5.2- 1 Vulnerability matrix of frame structure buildings based on specific intensity （%） Earthquake Completely Severely Moderately Slightly Basically intact intensity destroyed damaged damaged damaged Ⅴ 0 0 1 2 97 Ⅵ 0 0 1 15 84 Ⅶ 0 1 7 29 64 Ⅷ 2 9 15 36 39 Ⅸ 2 20 53 24 1 Ⅹ 58 19 14 9 0

Figure 5.2- 1 Frame structure vulnerability matrix bar graph (%) Table 5.2- 2 The vulnerability matrix of brick-concrete structure buildings based on specific intensity（%） Earthquake Completely Severely Moderately damaged Slightly damaged Basically intact intensity destroyed damaged Ⅴ 0 0 4 14 81 Ⅵ 0 1 4 20 75 Ⅶ 2 6 15 30 48 Ⅷ 9 18 27 31 16 Ⅸ 11 38 15 18 18 Ⅹ 67 30 3 0 0

Figure 5.2- 2 Brick-concrete structure vulnerability matrix bar graph (%) Table 5.2- 3 The vulnerability matrix of brick-wood structure buildings based on specific intensity（%） Earthquake intensity Destroy Damage Basically intact Ⅴ 1 15 84 Ⅵ 3 29 70 Ⅶ 11 54 36 Ⅷ 32 56 12

Ⅸ 53 47 0

Figure 5.2- 3 Brick-wood structure vulnerability matrix bar graph (%) Table 5.2- 4 The vulnerability matrix of civil structure buildings based on specific intensity （%） Earthquake intensity Destroy Damage Basically intact Ⅴ 2 31 67 Ⅵ 5 34 61 Ⅶ 19 51 30 Ⅷ 49 44 7 Ⅸ 59 41 0

Figure 5.2- 4 Civil structure vulnerability matrix bar graph (%)

5.3 Seismic Vulnerability Curve of Buildings in Yunnan Province

Seismic vulnerability of building structural is often described by the vulnerability curve. In the vulnerability curve, three parameters are involved: the structural response Z (seismic demand) which represents the structural performance, the boundary value LS of damage limit state (the seismic ability), and the earthquake intensity index Y. It shows the probability that the structure response exceeds the specified damage state based on the different earthquake intensity. The vulnerability curve of seismic ground motion intensity is characterized by PGA and is assumed to be a functional form of log-normal distribution. This vulnerability curves describe the probability of exceeding a destructive state under the given ground motion. It is related to the property of the structure itself, the destruction state and the ground motion parameters. The image below can describe the relationship between the vulnerability curve and the destructive state of a given structure.

Figure 5.3- 1 Different damage state and vulnerability curve

The curves in this chapter are fitted with Matlab，and in this curve fitting formula, f1, f2, f3 , f4 respectively represent for curve fitting formula of slightly damaged, moderately damaged, severely damaged and completely destroyed。 1. The vulnerability curve of frame structure under specific earthquake intensity Table 5.3- 1 The damage cumulative probability of the frame structure under different seismic intensities（%） Earthquake Completely Severely damaged Moderately damaged Slightly damaged intensity destroyed Ⅵ 0 0 1 16 Ⅶ 0 2 10 40 Ⅷ 2 11 26 62 Ⅸ 2 23 75 99 Ⅹ 58 77 91 100

Figure 5.3- 2 Frame structure vulnerability curve The fitting formulas are shown in the figure： −12 3.157푥 푓1(푥) = 1.212 ∗ 10 푒 1.154푥 푓2(푥) = 0.0007452푒 푥−9.777 −( )2 푓3(푥) = 93.42푒 1.627

푥−9.75 −( )2 푓4(푥) = 102.2푒 2.734 2. The vulnerability curve of brick-concrete structure under specific earthquake intensity Table 5.3- 2 The damage cumulative probability of the brick-concrete structure under different seismic（%） Earthquake Completely Severely Moderately Slightly intensity destroyed damaged damaged damaged Ⅵ 0 0 3 21 Ⅶ 0 5 16 47 94

Ⅷ 3 16 46 82 Ⅸ 11 49 64 82 Ⅹ 67 97 100 100

Figure 5.3- 3 Brick-concrete structure vulnerability curve The fitting formulas are shown in the figure： −6 1.777푥 푓1(푥) = 1.288 ∗ 10 푒 푥−11.17 −( )2 푓2(푥) = 128.5푒 2.21

푥−11.34 −( )2 푓3(푥) = 118.2푒 3.172

푥−10.87 −( )2 푓4(푥) = 103.6푒 4.08 3. The vulnerability curve of brick-wood structure under specific earthquake intensity Table 5.3- 3 The damage cumulative probability of the brick-wood structure under different seismic（%） Earthquake intensity Destroy Damage Ⅵ 1 23 Ⅶ 5 53 Ⅷ 26 90% Ⅸ 53 100%

Figure 5.3- 4 Brick-wood structure vulnerability curve The fitting formulas are shown in the figure： 푥−9.235 −( )2 푓1(푥) = 54.42푒 1.445

푥−8.801 −( )2 푓2(푥) = 101푒 2.278 4. The vulnerability curve of civil structure under specific earthquake intensity Table 5.3- 4 The damage cumulative probability of the civil structure under different seismic（%） Earthquake intensity Destroy Damage Ⅵ 1 27 Ⅶ 8 57 Ⅷ 32 90 Ⅸ度* 59 100

Figure 5.3- 5 Civil structure vulnerability curve

The fitting formulas are shown in the figure： 푥−9.255 −( )2 푓1(푥) = 60.67푒 1.58

푥−8.832 −( )2 푓2(푥) = 103.6푒 2.453

It can be seen from the four figures above that the damage degree of the four types of building structure increases from the frame structure to the civil structure, which consistent with common sense and rules. The damage grade of non-simple houses under the earthquake intensity of Ⅵ degree is mostly "slightly damaged" and a small amount of "moderately damaged" (1-3%). Under the earthquake intensity of X degree, the proportion of “destroyed” grade of frame structure houses reaches 57.78%, the proportion of “slightly damaged” grade and the above of frame structure houses account for 100%, the proportion of “destroyed” grade of brick-concrete structure reached 67%, and the proportion of “moderately damaged" grade and the above of brick-concrete structure account for 100%. Under the earthquake intensity of Ⅵ degree, the proportion of “damaged” grade of simple houses reaches 23%-28%, and the proportion of “destroyed” grade is less (1-2%). Under the earthquake intensity of Ⅸ degree, the proportion of “damaged” grade of simple houses reached 100%, the proportion of “destroyed” grade of brick-wood structures reaches 53 percent, and the proportion of “destroyed” grade of the civil structure accounts for 59.1 %.

Chapter 6 Forecasting Model of Building

Vulnerability in Eryuan County, Dali Prefecture

Eryuan County is one of the 9 counties under the jurisdiction of Dali prefecture, Yunnan Province. It is located in the north of Dali and it’s the source of Erhai Lake. There are 6 towns 3 villages in Eryuan County, with 88 village committees and 2 community neighborhood committees in subjection to them: 13 village committees and 2 community neighborhood committees in Cibi Lake Town, 4 village committees in Dengchuan Town, 11 village committees in Qiaohou Town, 10 village committees in Sanying Town, 14 village committees in Youying Town, 9 village committees in Fengyu Town, 11 village committees in Niujie Township, 11 village committees in Liantie Township, 5 village committees in Xishan Township. The area of Eryuan county of Dali prefecture covers the earthquake belt of Xianshuihe in the Qinghai-Tibet earthquake zone to the east area of Yunnan and the earthquake belt of southwest Yunnan. In the area of former earthquake belt, the largest earthquake recorded in history was the 8.0-magnitude earthquake in Chongming Yanglin, Yunnan province on September 6th, 1833, and the magnitude of 8.0 is the upper limit in this belt. In the area of latter earthquake belt, the largest two earthquake recorded in history were the 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Longling, Yunnan province, on May 29th, 1976 and the 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the north of Lancang, Yunnan province, on Nov. 6th, 1988, and the magnitude of 8.0 is the upper limit in this belt. The devastating earthquake which is higher than 5.0 magnitudes in Eryuan County is rare in recent years. There were just two great earthquakes higher than 5.0 magnitudes in recent years, which are the 5.5-magnitude earthquake in Eryuan County on March 3rd, 2013, and the 5.0-magnitude earthquake in the area from Eryuan County to Yangbi on April 17th, 2013. The focal depth of the 5.5-magnitude earthquake in Eryuan County on March 3rd, 2013 was 9 kilometers, which belonged to the shallow earthquake.

In the fifth generation of the ground motion parameter zoning map, Eryuan County is located in 8-degree seismic region where there is certain seismic risk. According to the results of the current housing construction statistics, civil structure building, brick- wood structure building in Eryuan County account for a lot, but the building type of the frame structure accounts for a small proportion.

6.1 Seismic Hazard Analysis Results

Taking the Niujie Town, one of the 9 townships of Eryuan County, as an example, the annual surpassing probability and annual incidence of the peak value of the ground motion acceleration in the first part of the study is listed in Table 6.1-1, the curves of the annual surpassing probability and annual incidence are shown in figure 6.1-1, where the black line is the annual surpassing probability (  aAP )( )curve, the red line is the

annual incidence (（  a)A ) curve, and the blue line is the interval annual incidence

（  aAa ) ( 1 2 ) curve.

Table 6.1- 1 Annual Surpassing Probability and Annual Incidence of Peak Acceleration Values of Niujie Township Annual Interval annual Peak Annual The acceleration Conversion factor incidence incidence acceleration of probability of of ground motion /Ks bedrock /gal transcendence of class Ⅱ/gal

5 6.61E-01 1.25 6.25 1.0818E+00 10 4.06E-01 1.25 12.50 5.2088E-01 5.6088E-01 15 2.74E-01 1.25 18.75 3.2021E-01 2.0067E-01 20 2.02E-01 1.25 25.00 2.2565E-01 9.4559E-02 30 1.32E-01 1.25 37.50 1.4156E-01 8.4083E-02 40 9.83E-02 1.25 50.00 1.0347E-01 3.8090E-02 50 7.68E-02 1.25 62.50 7.9909E-02 2.3564E-02 60 6.17E-02 1.25 75.00 6.3686E-02 1.6224E-02 70 5.02E-02 1.24 87.08 5.1504E-02 1.2182E-02 80 4.13E-02 1.24 98.88 4.2177E-02 9.3268E-03 90 3.44E-02 1.23 110.52 3.5006E-02 7.1715E-03 100 2.86E-02 1.22 122.00 2.9017E-02 5.9887E-03 125 1.87E-02 1.20 150.00 1.8877E-02 1.0140E-02 150 1.26E-02 1.18 177.00 1.2680E-02 6.1970E-03 175 8.74E-03 1.16 203.00 8.7784E-03 3.9016E-03

200 6.25E-03 1.14 228.00 6.2696E-03 2.5088E-03 250 3.37E-03 1.10 275.00 3.3757E-03 2.8939E-03 300 1.94E-03 1.06 318.00 1.9419E-03 1.4338E-03 350 1.17E-03 1.02 357.00 1.1707E-03 7.7120E-04 400 7.34E-04 1.00 400.00 7.3427E-04 4.3642E-04 450 4.80E-04 1.00 450.00 4.8012E-04 2.5415E-04 500 3.16E-04 1.00 500.00 3.1605E-04 1.6407E-04 600 1.49E-04 1.00 600.00 1.4901E-04 1.6704E-04 700 7.23E-05 1.00 700.00 7.2303E-05 7.6708E-05 800 3.52E-05 1.00 800.00 3.5201E-05 3.7102E-05 900 1.77E-05 1.00 900.00 1.7700E-05 1.7500E-05 1000 9.46E-06 1.00 1000.00 9.4600E-06 8.2401E-06

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60 PRO/Miu

0.40

0.20 1a PRO

1a Miu

miu1-miu2

0.00 1 10 100 1000 ACC/(gal) Figure 6.1- 1 Monthly surpassing probability and annual incidence curve of acceleration in Cattle Street Linearly interpolating the peak incidence (  aAP )( ) in Table 6.1-1 according to the peak acceleration of the earthquakes in the class II of Table 4.2-1 will obtain the annual incidence (（  a)A ) which corresponds to the peak acceleration range value,

（  aAa ) and obtain the interval annual incidence ( 1 2 ) corresponding to the earthquake intensity (Table 6.1-2). Table 6.1- 2 Relationship between Seismic Intensity and Annual Incidence of Niujie Township Annual incidence Interval annual incidence The acceleration of ground motion of seismic intensity class Ⅱ/gal

39 1.3699E-01 Ⅵ 8.6216E-02 88 5.0777E-02 Ⅶ 88 5.0777E-02 3.9447E-02 100

186 1.1329E-02 186 1.1329E-02 Ⅷ 1.0321E-02 373 1.0083E-03 373 1.0083E-03 Ⅸ 9.4935E-04 736 5.8946E-05 ≥Ⅸ ≥736 5.8946E-05 The results of the seismic hazard analysis (annual incidence and annual incidence) of the other eight townships can also be calculated by the same way.

6.2 Estimation Model of Housing Construction in Eryuan County

Based on the study of the ground motion parameters and the transcendence probability of nine townships in Eryuan County, this paper deduces the vulnerability prediction model of housing construction in every township of Eryuan County by studying the vulnerability data of earthquake disaster housing construction in Yunnan Province. The basic idea is: the earthquake damage risk of urban and rural residential buildings = encounter earthquake risk * building vulnerability * building quantity.

6.2.1 Calculation Example of Earthquake Damage Prediction Model for Housing Construction in Eryuan County

Note: Seismic intensity classifications shown in the following tables is according to China National Standard GB/T17742-2008 《The Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale》. The obtained annual incidence of the earthquake interval: Table 6.2- 1 Relationship of annual incidence of Niujie Township earthquake interval

The average annual probability of occurrence of local earthquake

Ⅳ 8.6216% Ⅶ 3.9447% Parameter input Ⅷ 1.0321% Ⅸ 0.0949% Ⅹ 0.0059%

101

Table 6.2- 2 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural frame structure in Niujie Township Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0086% 0.0793% 1.3803% 7.1706% Frame Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0840% 0.3846% 1.3033% 2.2781% Structure Ⅷ 0.0151% 0.0931% 0.1596% 0.3827% 0.3970% Ⅸ 0.0022% 0.0192% 0.0501% 0.0226% 0.0001% Ⅹ 0.0034% 0.0011% 0.0008% 0.0005% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 1 Expected damage ratio of rural frame structure in Niujie Township Table 6.2- 3 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Niujie Township Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Ⅵ 0.0026% 0.0276% 0.2173% 1.6743% 6.7317% Brick and Ⅶ 0.0174% 0.1992% 0.5444% 1.2950% 1.9128% concrete structure Ⅷ 0.0250% 0.1320% 0.3246% 0.3661% 0.1863% Ⅸ 0.0104% 0.0362% 0.0138% 0.0171% 0.0011% Ⅹ 0.0039% 0.0018% 0.0002% 0.0000% 0.0000%

102

Figure 6.2- 2 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Niujie Township Table 6.2- 4 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Niujie Township intensity destruction damage Basically good Ⅵ 0.0750% 2.0752% 6.4809% Brick and wood Ⅶ 0.2252% 2.0919% 1.6276% structure Ⅷ 0.2468% 0.6774% 0.1080% Ⅸ 0.0503% 0.0446% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 3 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Niujie Township Table 6.2- 5 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural civil structure in Niujie Township intensity destruction damage Basically good Ⅵ 0.1009% 2.3890% 6.1369% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.3392% 2.1203% 1.4844% Ⅷ 0.2973% 0.6265% 0.1089% Ⅸ 0.0561% 0.0388% 0.0000%

103

Figure 6.2- 4 Expected damage ratio of rural civil structure in Niujie Township

6.2.2 Earthquake Damage Prediction Model of Township Buildings in

Eryuan County

1）Sanying Town Table 6.2- 6 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural frame structure in Sanying Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0086% 0.0790% 1.3755% 7.1455% Frame Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0845% 0.3867% 1.3103% 2.2902% structure Ⅷ 0.0152% 0.0940% 0.1612% 0.3866% 0.4011% Ⅸ 0.0022% 0.0192% 0.0501% 0.0226% 0.0001% Ⅹ 0.0034% 0.0011% 0.0008% 0.0005% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 5 Expected damage ratio of rural frame structure in Sanying Town

104

Table 6.2- 7 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Sanying Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Brick and Ⅵ 0.0026% 0.0275% 0.2165% 1.6684% 6.7082% concrete Ⅶ 0.0174% 0.2003% 0.5473% 1.3020% 1.9230% structure Ⅷ 0.0252% 0.1333% 0.3279% 0.3698% 0.1882% Ⅸ 0.0104% 0.0362% 0.0138% 0.0171% 0.0011% Ⅹ 0.0039% 0.0018% 0.0002% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 6 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Sanying Town Table 6.2- 8 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Sanying Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ Brick and wood 0.0747% 2.0679% 6.4582% structure Ⅶ 0.2264% 2.1031% 1.6363% Ⅷ 0.2493% 0.6843% 0.1091% Ⅸ 0.0503% 0.0446% 0.0000%

105

Figure 6.2- 7 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Sanying Town Table 6.2- 9 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural civil structure in Sanying Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ 0.1005% 2.3807% 6.1154% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.3411% 2.1316% 1.4923% Ⅷ 0.3004% 0.6329% 0.1100% Ⅸ 0.0561% 0.0388% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 8 Expected damage ratio of civil structure in Sanying Town 2）Cibi Lake Town Table 6.2- 10 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural frame structure in Cibi Lake Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0075% 0.0691% 1.2017% 6.2428% Frame Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0643% 0.2942% 0.9970% 1.7426% structure Ⅷ 0.0110% 0.0679% 0.1163% 0.2790% 0.2895% Ⅸ 0.0017% 0.0147% 0.0383% 0.0173% 0.0000% Ⅹ 0.0026% 0.0009% 0.0006% 0.0004% 0.0000%

106

Figure 6.2- 9 Expected damage ratio of rural frame structure in Cibi Lake Town Table 6.2- 11 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Cibi Lake Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Brick and Ⅵ 0.0023% 0.0240% 0.1892% 1.4577% 5.8608% concrete Ⅶ 0.0133% 0.1524% 0.4164% 0.9906% 1.4632% structure Ⅷ 0.0182% 0.0963% 0.2367% 0.2669% 0.1358% Ⅸ 0.0080% 0.0277% 0.0105% 0.0131% 0.0008% Ⅹ 0.0030% 0.0013% 0.0001% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 10 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Cibi Lake Town Table 6.2- 12 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Cibi Lake Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good Brick and wood Ⅵ 0.0653% 1.8067% 5.6423% structure Ⅶ 0.1723% 1.6002% 1.2450% Ⅷ 0.1799% 0.4939% 0.0787%

107

Ⅸ 0.0385% 0.0341% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 11 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Cibi Lake Town Table 6.2- 13 Expected damage ratio matrix of the rural civil structure in Cibi Lake Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ 0.0878% 2.0799% 5.3428% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.2595% 1.6219% 1.1355% Ⅷ 0.2168% 0.4568% 0.0794% Ⅸ 0.0429% 0.0297% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 12 Expected damage ratio of the rural civil structure in Cibi Lake Town 3 Yousuo Town Table 6.2- 14 Expected damage ratio matrix of the rural frame structure in Yousuo Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Frame Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0060% 0.0550% 0.9568% 4.9702% structure Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0513% 0.2350% 0.7963% 1.3918% Ⅷ 0.0094% 0.0579% 0.0993% 0.2381% 0.2470% Ⅸ 0.0014% 0.0119% 0.0311% 0.0140% 0.0000%

108

Ⅹ 0.0020% 0.0007% 0.0005% 0.0003% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 13 Expected damage ratio of the rural frame structure in Yousuo Town Table 6.2- 15 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Yousuo Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Brick and Ⅵ 0.0018% 0.0191% 0.1506% 1.1605% 4.6661% concrete Ⅶ 0.0106% 0.1217% 0.3326% 0.7912% 1.1686% structure Ⅷ 0.0155% 0.0821% 0.2019% 0.2277% 0.1159% Ⅸ 0.0065% 0.0225% 0.0085% 0.0106% 0.0006% Ⅹ 0.0023% 0.0010% 0.0001% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 14 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Yousuo Town Table 6.2- 16 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Yousuo Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good Brick and wood Ⅵ 0.0520% 1.4384% 4.4922% structure Ⅶ 0.1376% 1.2780% 0.9944% Ⅷ 0.1535% 0.4214% 0.0672%

109

Ⅸ 0.0312% 0.0277% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 15 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Yousuo Town Table 6.2- 17 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural civil structure in Yousuo Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ 0.0699% 1.6559% 4.2537% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.2073% 1.2954% 0.9069% Ⅷ 0.1850% 0.3897% 0.0677% Ⅸ 0.0348% 0.0241% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 16 Expected damage ratio of rural civil structure in Yousuo Town 4）Dengchuan Town Table 6.2- 18 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural frame structure in Dengchuan Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Frame Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0060% 0.0550% 0.9568% 4.9702% structure Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0513% 0.2350% 0.7963% 1.3918% Ⅷ 0.0094% 0.0579% 0.0993% 0.2381% 0.2470% Ⅸ 0.0014% 0.0119% 0.0311% 0.0140% 0.0000%

110

Ⅹ 0.0020% 0.0007% 0.0005% 0.0003% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 17 Expected damage ratio of rural frame structure in Dengchuan Town Table 6.2- 19 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Dengchuan Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Brick and Ⅵ 0.0018% 0.0191% 0.1506% 1.1605% 4.6661% concrete Ⅶ 0.0106% 0.1217% 0.3326% 0.7912% 1.1686% structure Ⅷ 0.0155% 0.0821% 0.2019% 0.2277% 0.1159% Ⅸ 0.0065% 0.0225% 0.0085% 0.0106% 0.0006% Ⅹ 0.0023% 0.0010% 0.0001% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 18 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Dengchuan Town Table 6.2- 20 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Dengchuan Town

Brick and wood intensity destruction damage Basically good structure Ⅵ 0.0520% 1.4384% 4.4922%

111

Ⅶ 0.1376% 1.2780% 0.9944% Ⅷ 0.1535% 0.4214% 0.0672% Ⅸ 0.0312% 0.0277% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 19 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Dengchuan Town Table 6.2- 21 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural civil structure in Dengchuan Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ 0.0699% 1.6559% 4.2537% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.2073% 1.2954% 0.9069% Ⅷ 0.1850% 0.3897% 0.0677% Ⅸ 0.0348% 0.0241% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 20 Expected damage ratio of rural civil structure in Dengchuan Town 5）Fengyu Town Table 6.2- 22 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural frame structure in Fengyu Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction Frame damage damage damage good structure Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0066% 0.0607% 1.0559% 5.4852% Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0491% 0.2248% 0.7617% 1.3314%

112

Ⅷ 0.0079% 0.0487% 0.0835% 0.2003% 0.2078% Ⅸ 0.0013% 0.0116% 0.0302% 0.0136% 0.0000% Ⅹ 0.0023% 0.0008% 0.0006% 0.0003% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 21 Expected damage ratio of rural frame structure in Fengyu Town Table 6.2- 23 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Fengyu Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Brick and Ⅵ 0.0020% 0.0211% 0.1662% 1.2808% 5.1495% concrete Ⅶ 0.0101% 0.1164% 0.3182% 0.7569% 1.1179% structure Ⅷ 0.0131% 0.0691% 0.1699% 0.1916% 0.0975% Ⅸ 0.0063% 0.0218% 0.0083% 0.0103% 0.0007% Ⅹ 0.0027% 0.0012% 0.0001% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 22 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Fengyu Town Table 6.2- 24 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Fengyu Town

Brick and wood intensity destruction damage Basically good structure Ⅵ 0.0574% 1.5875% 4.9576%

113

Ⅶ 0.1316% 1.2226% 0.9512% Ⅷ 0.1291% 0.3545% 0.0565% Ⅸ 0.0303% 0.0269% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 23 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Fengyu Town Table 6.2- 25 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural civil structure in Fengyu Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ 0.0772% 1.8275% 4.6945% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.1983% 1.2392% 0.8676% Ⅷ 0.1556% 0.3279% 0.0570% Ⅸ 0.0338% 0.0234% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 24 Expected damage ratio of rural civil structure in Fengyu Town 6）Qiaohou Town Table 6.2- 26 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural frame structure in Qiaohou Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction Frame damage damage damage good structure Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0068% 0.0626% 1.0896% 5.6604% Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0446% 0.2040% 0.6914% 1.2084%

114

Ⅷ 0.0066% 0.0410% 0.0703% 0.1686% 0.1750% Ⅸ 0.0011% 0.0100% 0.0260% 0.0117% 0.0000% Ⅹ 0.0019% 0.0007% 0.0005% 0.0003% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 25 Expected damage ratio of rural frame structure in Qiaohou Town Table 6.2- 27 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Qiaohou Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Brick and Ⅵ 0.0020% 0.0218% 0.1715% 1.3217% 5.3140% concrete Ⅶ 0.0092% 0.1057% 0.2888% 0.6870% 1.0147% structure Ⅷ 0.0110% 0.0582% 0.1430% 0.1613% 0.0821% Ⅸ 0.0054% 0.0188% 0.0071% 0.0089% 0.0006% Ⅹ 0.0022% 0.0010% 0.0001% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 26 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Qiaohou Town Table 6.2- 28 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Qiaohou Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

115

Ⅵ 0.0592% 1.6382% 5.1159% Brick and wood Ⅶ 0.1195% 1.1097% 0.8634% structure Ⅷ 0.1087% 0.2985% 0.0476% Ⅸ 0.0261% 0.0232% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 27 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Qiaohou Town Table 6.2- 29 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural civil structure in Qiaohou Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ 0.0796% 1.8859% 4.8444% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.1800% 1.1247% 0.7874% Ⅷ 0.1310% 0.2761% 0.0480% Ⅸ 0.0291% 0.0202% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 28 Expected damage ratio of rural civil structure in Qiaohou Town 7）Liantie Township Table 6.2- 30 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural frame structure in Liantie Town Serious Medium Minor Basically Frame intensity destruction damage damage damage good structure Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0071% 0.0649% 1.1298% 5.8690%

116

Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0470% 0.2151% 0.7289% 1.2741% Ⅷ 0.0068% 0.0422% 0.0723% 0.1733% 0.1798% Ⅸ 0.0010% 0.0091% 0.0238% 0.0108% 0.0000% Ⅹ 0.0017% 0.0006% 0.0004% 0.0002% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 29 Expected damage ratio of rural frame structure in Liantie Town Table 6.2- 31 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Liantie Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Brick and Ⅵ 0.0021% 0.0226% 0.1778% 1.3704% 5.5098% concrete Ⅶ 0.0097% 0.1114% 0.3045% 0.7243% 1.0698% structure Ⅷ 0.0113% 0.0598% 0.1470% 0.1658% 0.0844% Ⅸ 0.0050% 0.0172% 0.0065% 0.0082% 0.0005% Ⅹ 0.0019% 0.0009% 0.0001% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 30 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Liantie Town Table 6.2- 32 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Liantie Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

117

Ⅵ 0.0614% 1.6985% 5.3044% Brick and wood Ⅶ 0.1260% 1.1699% 0.9103% structure Ⅷ 0.1117% 0.3067% 0.0489% Ⅸ 0.0239% 0.0212% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 31 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Liantie Town Table 6.2- 33 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural civil structure in Liantie Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ 0.0826% 1.9554% 5.0229% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.1897% 1.1858% 0.8302% Ⅷ 0.1346% 0.2837% 0.0493% Ⅸ 0.0267% 0.0185% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 32 Expected damage ratio of rural civil structure in Liantie Town 8）Xishan Township Table 6.2- 34 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural frame structure in Xishan Town Serious Medium Minor Basically Frame intensity destruction damage damage damage good structure Ⅵ 0.0000% 0.0065% 0.0594% 1.0344% 5.3734%

118

Ⅶ 0.0000% 0.0359% 0.1644% 0.5571% 0.9737% Ⅷ 0.0044% 0.0269% 0.0462% 0.1108% 0.1149% Ⅸ 0.0004% 0.0036% 0.0095% 0.0043% 0.0000% Ⅹ 0.0003% 0.0001% 0.0001% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 33 Expected damage ratio of rural frame structure in Xishan Town Table 6.2- 35 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-concrete structure in Xishan Town Serious Medium Minor Basically intensity destruction damage damage damage good Brick and Ⅵ 0.0019% 0.0207% 0.1628% 1.2547% 5.0445% concrete Ⅶ 0.0074% 0.0851% 0.2327% 0.5535% 0.8176% structure Ⅷ 0.0072% 0.0382% 0.0939% 0.1060% 0.0539% Ⅸ 0.0020% 0.0069% 0.0026% 0.0033% 0.0001% Ⅹ 0.0003% 0.0001% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 34 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-concrete structure in Xishan Town Table 6.2- 36 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural brick-wood structure in Xishan Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

119

Ⅵ 0.0562% 1.5551% 4.8565% Brick and wood Ⅶ 0.0963% 0.8941% 0.6957% structure Ⅷ 0.0714% 0.1960% 0.0312% Ⅸ 0.0096% 0.0085% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 35 Expected damage ratio of rural brick-wood structure in Xishan Town Table 6.2- 37 Expected damage ratio matrix of rural civil structure in Xishan Town

intensity destruction damage Basically good

Ⅵ 0.0756% 1.7903% 4.5987% Civil structure Ⅶ 0.1450% 0.9063% 0.6345% Ⅷ 0.0861% 0.1813% 0.0315% Ⅸ 0.0107% 0.0074% 0.0000%

Figure 6.2- 36 Expected damage ratio of rural civil structure in Xishan Town

120

Conclusion and Suggestion

In view of a series of research on the rural earthquake insurance, the following conclusions and suggestions are put forward: 1. Pay attention to the effects of insurance radiation in disaster-prone areas. Catastrophe insurance can be piloted in many disaster-prone areas, and continue to expand the pilot area and pilot depth to achieve "points and areas." At the same time, through the implementation of insurance in disaster-prone areas to protect the personal and property safety of residents, will help improve the overall risk response capacity of society. 2. During the survey, it was found that the basic conditions, risk perception level, and government behavior of residents' households all had an impact on the residents' ultimate purchase intention. Among them, the residents' age, gender, etc. have little impact, and household income, education level, and housing status have slightly greater influence. Residents with high levels of risk perception are generally willing to purchase earthquake insurance. In general, government behavior has the greatest impact on residents' purchase intention. The active publicity of the government and the size of the subsidy to residents' homes have greatly affected residents' understanding of earthquake insurance and their willingness to buy. 3. Through the earthquake insurance survey, it was found that although residents are still not very aware of the implementation of earthquake insurance in the earthquake insurance pilot area, some farmers still adopt an exclusion attitude toward earthquake insurance. Not satisfied with the earthquake insurance claim. Therefore, the government should increase its propaganda, cultivate residents' awareness of catastrophe insurance, and improve residents' comprehensive awareness of disaster prevention and reduction. At the same time, implement earthquake subsidy to farmers and gradually let farmers know the benefits of earthquake insurance. 4. Impact of data processing The main reason for farmers to purchase earthquake insurance is that farmers' risk awareness is not enough. The basic reason is that the

121 overall level of education of rural households is limited. In addition, the government’s propaganda on earthquake knowledge is not enough. Through propaganda and education is the fastest way for farmers to improve their perception of earthquake risk. 5. Evaluate the seismic safety of the structure by constructing an earthquake catastrophe risk model for urban and rural residential houses and analyzing the seismic vulnerability of rural housing structures. Taking Weiyuan County as an example, a specific earthquake risk model was established, vulnerability analysis and assessment were conducted, and survey data and risk assessment data were fully tapped and used as a preliminary basis for the determination of rural community earthquake insurance premium rates. Future rural earthquake insurance claims provide theoretical data support.

122

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Appendix

Appendix 1 Questionnaire

The questionnaire is as follows: Earthquake Insurance of Rural Community in Yunnan

Province: Investigation on Willingness of Householders

All information in this questionnaire is only used for scientific research，please fill in the following questions，or check in the appropriate box.

Research sites and local seismic fortification intensity:

Yunnan Province City (state) county Town /

Township village

Seismic fortification intensity Earthquake prone area

Rural basic situation:

一、Basic information of the research object

1. Basic information

Name Gender Age 2. Education level

No Primary school Junior middle high school University or above

school

3. Family situation and income Age population Average annual income

Meet the needs of life Yes No Family status evaluation：

4. Building structure type

Brick-concrete Brick-timber Soil Joist Frame structure Civil structure Other structure structure structure

126

5. Housing situation

Basically intact Slightly damaged There are security risks

6. Housing area:

7. Reconstruction cost:

二、Risk perception

1. Have you ever experienced an earthquake?

Yes No Unclear

If you have experienced an earthquake, please describe briefly the damage to the building after the earthquake：

Basically Slightly Moderately Severely Completely intact damaged damaged damaged destroyed

If the earthquake has been experienced, whether the government to help rebuild？

No Get a little help Get half help Get most help Unclear

How much money will be needed to repair or rebuild a house after an earthquake：

2. Are you afraid of earthquakes？

Not afraid A little scared General fear Very afraid Unclear

3. Do you understand the hazards of earthquakes?

understand Do not understand Unclear

4. Are you prepared for earthquake emergency supplies？

Yes No Unclear

5. What level of earthquake do you think caused the following damage to your home：

Slightly damaged Moderately damaged Severely damaged Collapse Unclear

6. When the earthquake happened, your house collapsed, do you think you have the ability to rebuild it？

127

Need little help from Need half help from Need most help Need help from No government government from government government completely

三、Government behavior

1. Did the government do the knowledge of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction?

Yes No Unclear

2. Does the government have reinforced your house?

Yes No Unclear

3.Does the government provide you with earthquake emergency supplies？

Yes No Unclear

4. Do you think the government will help you after the earthquake?

No Little Half Most Unclear

5. What other government subsidies have you received for earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction：

四、Earthquake insurance demand

1. Do you have access to and understand the products of earthquake insurance？

Yes No Unclear

2. Do you think your home needs to be insured against earthquake：

Yes No Unclear

3. If the government encourages farmers to insure their own earthquake insurance, and subsidize the majority of the insurance premium, will you insure it?？

Yes No Depending on the price Unclear

4.The policy of rural housing earthquake insurance, earthquake insurance to pay an annual fee, what is your maximum willingness to pay：

0～20% 20%～30% 30%～40% 40%～50% More than 50%

128

5. For commercial earthquake insurance, they need to bear the full cost, you can afford the maximum willingness to pay:

5～50 RMB 50～100 RMB 100～200 RMB 200～300 RMB More than 300 RMB

Researcher：

Accept researcher：

Research time：

129

Appendix 2 Field research

FieldResearch in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture

130

131

The Field Research in Honghe Hani Autonomous Prefecture

132

133

The Field Research in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture

134

135

The Field Research in Baoshan

136

The Field Research in Zhaotong

Appendix 3 Housing situation

Basically intact

137

138

Slight damage

139

Security Risks Exist

140

141

142

The Strengthening of Rural Houses

143

144

145

146