www.africa-confidential.com 29 August 2003 Vol 44 No 17 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL RWANDA 2 RWANDA Tightening budgets Western aid is likely to be more A victory foretold conditional as international Kagame defeats ethnic arithmetic in the first presidential poll since concern about authoritarianism the genocide of 1994 and human rights abuses General Paul Kagame was right when, a few days before the presidential election on 25 August, he told increases. Africa Confidential: ‘Most likely I am going to win. RPF is going to win.’ The big question is what he does with his landslide victory, amounting to 95 per cent of the votes cast (turnout was over 80 per cent). 3 He says the resulting ‘increased legitimacy’ would give the ruling Front Patriotique Rwandais ‘more confidence’ – something it has not seemed in need of. Abroad, the result will not deflect mounting Basri’s heirs criticism of the FPR’s authoritarianism at home and continued meddling in Congo-Kinshasa. A new younger security line up has Not a natural campaigner, Kagame made wooden attempts at populism, awkwardly leading election emerged to tackle the challenge rallies in party chants and swapping military fatigues and sober suits for baseball caps, polo shirts and posed by growing Islamist activity. designer tie-dye shirts fresh from the packet. With regimental efficiency, his campaigners distributed Political parties are still dominated Kagame umbrellas, tee-shirts and hats, and his beaming portrait gazed down from election posters across by ageing leaders, but the power of the old Fes-based establishment the country. ‘I think that it’s going to be pleasant to get a feeling that the majority of the people of this is waning. country support our leadership, support what RPF has ushered in,’ he enthused. The electoral triumph has defeated the ethnic arithmetic which argued that Kagame’s Tutsi, with 13 per cent of the population, could not win mass support from the Hutu 85 per cent without widespread fraud NIGERIA 4 and intimidation. The result may be sweeter still since Kagame rejected the advice of his former ally, Mob rule President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, to abjure multi-party politics in favour of a Ugandan-style no- party system. Plenty of election irregularities and a heavily skewed playing field were not enough to Mafia-style politics from Anambra discredit Kagame’s landslide. A relentless cycle of election songs in Kinyarwanda from a local rap band State make for a cracking yarn, but boomed through megaphones in marketplaces. Rallies of tens of thousands, many of them bussed in for are a sad reflection on the methods of recently reelected President the event, waved FPR flags. Many voters, it seems, voted for security and knew little or nothing about Olusegun Obasanjo’s government. rival candidates. The party (or state) coffers overwhelmed the rivals. Intimidating statistics SOUTH AFRICA 5 Many find the FPR’s record impressive, too. The restoration of security in most of Rwanda after the Busy bees genocide of more than 700,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu in 1994 is the dominant achievement upon which the regime’s political and economic strategy has been built. For those without contentious political views, The Oppenheimer mining dynasty Kigali is one of Africa’s safest cities. has entered the debate on black Economic success overshadows political gripes. Since the FPR took power in 1994, real gross economic empowerment with its own set of proposals for the white- domestic product has doubled, according to Finance Minister Donald Kaberuka, and it rose by 9.4 per dominated private sector. The cent last year. Rwanda has soared away from the poorest states on the United Nations’ development government, too, is keen to ensure ratings, ranking 158th last year, ahead of Nigeria. Britain’s Department for International Development, that its empowerment initiatives Kigali’s staunchest foreign ally, says Rwanda will achieve the UN’s millennium development goals by enrich more than just the elite. 2015 in areas such as primary education. Most universities closed in 1994; new ones are opening. One FPR official called the party’s election strategy ‘measured democracy’. The new constitution, GAMBIA 7 voted in by referendum, and the state-controlled election commission, set down strict rules against exploiting ethnic sentiment. Several supporters of Kagame’s main challenger, Hutu leader Faustin Friends new and old Twagiramungu, were arrested and accused of breaching them. President ’s ties to Poor farmers in the north-west said they hadn’t seen a Twagiramungu poster and weren’t sure what he former Liberian leader Charles looked like. His campaign material, including 20,000 leaflets setting out his manifesto, was held at Taylor seem to have escaped customs. British-based Amnesty International was highly critical, reporting that his former party, the scrutiny as relations warm between Mouvement Démocratique Républicain, was banned this year (AC Vol 44 No 12). Twagiramungu’s new and conservatives in political group, the Alliance pour la Démocratie, l’Equité et le Progrès-Mizero (ADEP-Mizero, which Washington. means ‘hope’ in Kinyarwanda) was denied legal status because of its foreign funding; its leaders were called in daily for police questioning and some are said to have had their passports seized. The other two POINTERS 8 presidential candidates, Jean-Nepomuscene Nayinzira and Alivera Mukabaramba, were also intimidated, said Amnesty. Sudan, Côte d’Ivoire, Critics accuse Western states (which, writhing in guilt over their inaction during the 1994 genocide, Congo-K/Uruguay & provide about 70 per cent of Rwanda’s aid) of selective indignation on election malpractice: Rwanda Congo-K/Morocco good, Zimbabwe bad. France, Belgium and the United States want credits from the World Bank and 29 August 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 17 Winning hearts and budgets Doubts about President Paul Kagame’s landslide election victory are travelling with the Foreign Minister: a glimmer of hope for Kagame’s unlikely to bring a fall in Western aid to Kigali but funding will come under opponents that will not affect the Netherlands’ longer term aid to Rwanda. heavier scrutiny as concern grows about authoritarianism and human rights French and Belgian policy remains resolutely sceptical, if not actively abuses. The biggest concern remains Rwanda’s operations – overt and hostile, towards Rwanda. Some in the Quai d’Orsay worry that a policy covert – in neighbouring Congo-Kinshasa. of ‘containing’ Rwanda’s regional ambitions might become too successful General Kagame got on well with United States President George W. and prompt the ultra-martial faction in Kigali to oust the fragile power- Bush in Washington in March, thanks to the Rwandan leader’s diplomatic sharing government in Kinshasa. French Foreign Minister Dominique de skills and strong endorsement from National Security Council Africa Villepin and his British counterpart Jack Straw are due in Kigali and Director Jendayi Frazer. But Assistant Secretary of State for African Kinshasa next month to endorse the new order there and warn Rwanda Affairs Walter J. Kansteiner, sceptical on Kagame, wasn’t informed of against more adventures in Congo. the visit. A strong letter advising Kagame to set up an inquiry into Rwandan Even if the Foreign and Commonwealth Office has doubts, Britain’s looting in Congo and asking about the whereabouts of ‘disappeared’ Department for International Development remains Rwanda’s staunchest oppositionists has been sent from Kansteiner’s State Department. foreign ally. Development Minister Baroness Valerie Amos, visiting US Ambassador to Kinshasa Aubrey Hooks, close to William Swing Kigali in July, offered funding for the presidential and parliamentary (the United Nations Secretary General’s Special Representative in Congo), elections (unlike the European Union) and pledged continuing strong is also sceptical about Kigali. So far, US diplomats have done little more budgetary support. DfID officials say in reports to Whitehall they list than abstain on votes for credits to Rwanda at the World Bank and security as a component of this. International Monetary Fund. If Rwanda overtly sent its troops back into If defence was soaking up 20 per cent of government spending, a DfID Congo, that would almost certainly prompt a US ‘no’ vote on future loans. official said, that was ‘factored in’ (Finance Minister Donald Kaberuka During a pre-election visit to Kigali, Netherlands’ Foreign Minister insists just 3 per cent goes to defence). DfID says it doesn’t ‘pretend that Jaap de Hoop Scheffer made much of his decision to withhold 250,000 it all goes to education’ but it sees defence (and security reform) as vital euros (US$272,000) because of human rights and accountability concerns. to development. So it’s unperturbed by Kigali’s acquisition of 32 T-54 But the move, announced after what appeared to have been an otherwise tanks via Israel, which were sent north towards the Ugandan border affable meeting with Kagame, appears to have been aimed at Dutch earlier this year. The tanks, DfID says, were funded openly from the opinion. The new tough line was relayed by the 20 Dutch journalists Defence Ministry budget. International Monetary Fund to be conditional on Rwanda ending its to be demonised for what I have been and what I did.’ Congo operations but care less about its internal politics. The FPR’s tactics may strengthen Hutu extremists at the expense of moderates such as Twagiramungu. There is a lengthening list of Hutu, A monopolised landscape untarnished by genocide, who have disappeared or fled into exile. Twagiramungu says he will not recognise a Kagame victory. Five senior figures have disappeared this year, including Lieutenant Interviewed just before the elections, he seemed a beaten man. ‘I don’t Colonel XC Cyiza, a former Vice-President of the Supreme Court, have umbrellas, I don’t have hats and I don’t have buses,’ he complained. and former member of the transitional national assembly Léonard His campaign could not book stadiums because the FPR had booked Hitimana, who testified against génocidaires at the Arusha Tribunal. them all in advance. The electoral commission kept him busy in Kigali Even friendly Western governments are asking questions. Kagame fending off charges that his campaign material broke the rules against appears to be aligning himself with the Tutsi of regions such as ethnic divisiveness. Twagiramungu insisted, not altogether plausibly, Ruhengeri and Gisenyi, where Hutu power originated. that there was a printer’s error in his literature. Yet, despite lack of Unreconstructed Hutu supremacists may reckon that working with funds, disorganisation and a humble headquarters, he still rattled the Kagame offers a route back in to power; they believe he needs them FPR and attracted several thousand supporters to the few rallies he and will give them jobs and influence. There are growing fears about managed to organise. The state-run New Times described that audience attempts to stir up ethnic sentiment among the army’s other ranks, as 200 jeering school children. more than half of whom are Hutu. Keeping Hutu soldiers busy FPR officials did not expect Twagiramungu to tackle prickly issues elsewhere may have been one motive for Rwanda’s Congo intervention. such as land rights. In recent years, tens if not hundreds of thousands Middle-class Hutu are not convinced that the FPR has in practice of poor Hutu farmers have been relocated, and former Tutsi exiles have rejected ethnic politics; few are employed in senior government and been moved on to the land, which in some areas already has more than security positions. 275 people per square kilometre. Twagiramungu promised to return Kagame refused Twagiramungu any credit for political restraint – all redistributed land to its original owners; that came close to an ethnic in fact rather the opposite. ‘One can’t rule out 100 per cent that such appeal, since Hutu farmers would be the main beneficiaries. He also dangers [of ethnic politics] are likely to be there, especially when some called for the fund for genocide survivors to be open to all. Hutu who politicians have nothing else to offer apart from appealing to ethnic lost family members in the genocide get no compensation; the FPR’s sentiments’, Kagame said. ‘With good leadership, with clarity of official line was that the genocide killed only Tutsi. politics, we are going to change this situation. We cannot accept that The government’s critics were almost totally shut down. Alison we be condemned to be perpetually divided on ethnic terms.’ DesForges of Human Rights Watch was labelled a Hutu supremacist, If Twagiramungu had won 20-30 per cent of the vote, it would have civil society activists were agents of foreign interests. The state- bolstered hopes for a multi-party system and the growth of a dominated media made no pretence of balance. Twagiramungu, constitutional and loyal opposition. That might still happen if opposition described as a ‘Nazi’, responded bitterly: ‘I am suffering because I parties do well in next month’s parliamentary elections but that looks have not been divisive... My brothers and their children were killed unlikely. An authoritarian FPR government, boosted by a landslide during the genocide because of the positions I took. I did not expect mandate, could provoke a resurgence of extremism. When a US 2 29 August 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 17

Agency for International Development report sounded these warnings, it was quickly buried after government protests. Crises to come Proposed new land laws would limit title to farms of a hectare or Whoever governs Morocco faces daunting social problems and the more. The declared aim is to consolidate land ownership and encourage challenge of creating a more responsive political system. The old Fes- commercial farming; Hutu advocates argue that it will reduce many of based establishment no longer dominates politics or business, though their people to landless labourers, widening the gap between rich and major Fassi families still wield considerable power, often from their poor, urban and rural. Most economic growth is in the towns, where offices in the commercial capital, Casablanca. In two decades, Fes has people have more choices; the more than 90 per cent of Rwandans who fallen from third-ranked economic centre to eighth; Marrakesh has long farm or raise cattle are under growing pressure to boost production. overtaken it to become the tourist capital. There is a widespread feeling Tea is again Rwanda’s biggest export earner, having overtaken coffee the city is dying – and is ready to explode into violent riots again, as it did and colombo-tantalite (whose price has crashed after several boom in the early 1990s. years for Rwanda’s military entrepreneurs in Congo). The justice Parties are dominated by ageing leaders but rapid social change is system will also come under pressure as the grassroots ‘gacaca’ court catching up even with them. Profession rather than community often hearings, whose initial stages have identified as many as 100,000 war decides political affiliation; thus Istiqlal and the Union Socialiste des criminals, move into the next phase. Even more people may be Forces Populaires are no longer Fassi fiefs but rather are dominated by crammed into Rwanda’s bursting gaols. teachers and lawyers from all over the country. Even the Berber parties, FPR supporters argue that the presidential and parliamentary a bastion of the late King Hassan II’s system of control across his diverse elections will consolidate bottom-up democracy. Their opponents say kingdom – have come into the melting pot as Moroccans have urbanised. the FPR has used the traditional hierarchical and authoritarian structures The Berber-based Mouvement Populaire (MP) now depends on urban (which facilitated the genocide) to instruct poor farmers to vote the seats and has Arab parliamentarians and voters. Old-time Berber politicians right way. Breaking those patterns would require a socio-economic such as Mahjoubi Aherdane remain powerful local barons but are slowly revolution. Few expect the parliamentary elections to loosen the being replaced by younger politicians with very different perspectives, FPR’s political control. As he declared victory on 26 August, Kagame like the MP’s and the Ambassador to France, Hassan said he wanted a broad-based government, working with opposition Abouyoub. politicians. Twagiramungu immediately rejected the offer. If Kagame The economic mood is surprisingly upbeat after good rains during the cannot open up the government, his opponents may find the FPR’s growing season, which means the dams are full. This also means there will authoritarian style a powerful recruiting sergeant. be good harvests of wheat and the cash cow of the informal economy, kif (cannabis), grown in the north. Yet there is trepidation about the future, with growing pressure for agricultural reform, which in the next decade MOROCCO will force millions more people off the land. Already the rural exodus is accelerating to levels not seen for years. In the period to 2010, reform in the countryside could add some two million Basri’s heirs people to Casablanca’s residents and perhaps 5-7 million to the overall urban population. With most routes to legal migration closed, most people A new generation of security chiefs responds displaced from the land will find their way into the bidonvilles (shanty to the Islamist challenge towns) that spawned the groups responsible for the 16 May attacks. A new security elite has finally risen to the top in Morocco, buoyed up by popular demands for security and more incisive government. This includes the notorious Temara interrogation centre, once more the focus comes three and a half years after King Mohammed VI made his of attention from human rights activists and expected to feature in a single most important political decision to date, to sack Driss Basri, forthcoming report on the authorities’ response to 16 May by the his father’s coldly efficient Interior Minister. It more immediately Fédération Internationale des Droits de l’Homme (FIDH, International follows the 16 May suicide bombings in Casablanca, details of which Federation of Human Rights). Another of Laânigri’s DST stalwarts, are emerging through trials and press interviews that are fascinating Noureddine ben Brahim, now heads the Interior Ministry’s security- Moroccans this summer. There is even a potboiler entitled 16 Mai, related Direction des Affaires Générales along with Yacine Mansouri. written and just published by Ahmed Beroho. Such is the climate of Laânigri’s star has been rising for some time, and he has been showing speculation that some critics believe the all-action novella is passing undoubted loyalty to M6, notably during the Palace struggles with royal messages from the security services about what really happened, cousin Moulay Hicham ben Abdallah (AC Vol 43 No 3). Most though this looks improbable. recently, his success at rounding up an Islamist cell linked to Usama bin The public has been hoping that Mohammed (popularly known as Laden’s Al Qaida, which had identified targets including shipping in ‘M6’), who celebrated his 40th birthday on 21 August, might now start the strategically sensitive Strait of Gibraltar, won him extra credits with to act with more decisiveness than in his first years in power. Key the Palace. Laânigri was seen to have performed especially well when players in the new security configuration are Secretary of State for the compared to the lacklustre performance of older generals in tackling the Interior Fouad Ali el Hima and General Hamidou Laânigri. El Hima security challenge that followed 11 September 2001. These included is a former schoolmate and key Palace aide of the King and wields his long-time rival Gen. Hosni Benslimane, who is now expected to considerably more influence than his nominal boss, Interior Minister spend even more of his time focusing on business, as well as his Mustapha Sahel. Laânigri now heads the Direction Générale de predecessor at the DGSN, Gen. Hafid ben Hachem. Sûreté Nationale (DGSN). Energetic and ruthless, he is expected to Not everyone is so happy. ‘The Gibraltar gang’ included three Saudi galvanise the national police department, while also retaining control Arabians, now gaoled in Morocco. Riyadh has put Rabat under extreme of his much smaller – and secret – former department, the Direction pressure to hand them over. M6 personally intervened to block this, well de Surveillance du Territoire. The DST is now under his protégé understanding what the United States’ reaction would be, as well as the Ahmed Harari, who previously ran its Casablanca operation. This impact it would have on his authority at home. 3 29 August 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 17

The small group of M6’s ‘college friends with influence’ also elections; it has some respected candidates but could be overstretched: includes royal secretaries Mohamed Rachdi Chraïbi and Mounir its apparent strategy is to field a few candidates who could win, Majidi (AC Vol 42 No 25). The group is not all-powerful, however, thereby giving the impression it could have done really well had it sparring with established royal counsellors such as veteran economic chosen to stand everywhere. Even so, the Interior Ministry is genuinely aide André Azoulay and powerful lobbies outside the Palace walls. worried; its Election Department, which Brahim Boufous heads since They are not a popular group of people, increasingly publicly criticised M6’s July reshuffle of senior officials, is especially concerned that a for policy shortfalls and Rabat’s handling of the Western Sahara issue. very low turnout will favour the PJD. The critical problem of Moroccan party politics is the established Suspicious death parties’ inability to evolve as quickly as the society around them. Outside Islamist circles and some concerned individuals, public Mohammed has asked a trusted technocratic advisor, Abdelaziz opinion seems only faintly concerned by heavy-handed security Meziane Belfkih, to push rejuvenation on the parties. Istiqlal under crackdowns. Brothers and cousins of Islamist suspects have been has shown some inclination to change. The USFP rounded up and interrogated at unidentified centres, as have their more remains embroiled in its succession battles, with Youssoufi yet to obviously involved relatives. stand down despite renouncing the premiership. Another Two key figures in the Casablanca attacks have died in custody. septuagenarian, veteran socialist apparatchik Mohammed Elyazghi, Salafiya al Jihadiya leader Abdelhak ben Tasser (known as ‘Moul is favourite to succeed Youssoufi, who has proved an impossible act Sebbat’) officially died of a heart attack. Yet independent witnesses to follow. Urbane National Education Minister Khalid Alioua is who saw the corpse say he had been tortured, as had Mohammed among those who’d like the job but he lacks political weight. Dissident Bounnit, an Islamist based in the desert resort of Taroudent. One trades union leader Noubir Amaoui would provide a radical alternative witness told Africa Confidential one of Moul Sebbat’s eyes had been but is now outside the USFP machine. forced out of its socket. In private, senior officials have admitted he did not die in his bed; according to one version of events, he was beaten up in transit by police officers too junior to have been guarding him NIGERIA and as a result, died of a heart attack. The FIDH is investigating this along with other torture allegations and other abuses. Unlike in the bad old days of King Hassan II’s rule, the majority of Mob rule detainees do not seem to have been tortured. This has given rise to conspiracy theories that Moul Sebbat was killed because he was linked Mafia-style politics in the south-east raise more to the security services, which have long infiltrated radical groups, and doubts about President Obasanjo’s election victory could have yielded up compromising evidence of an intelligence The kidnapping of Anambra State Governor Chris Ngige and the failure. There is no concrete evidence of this, though. subsequent impunity of those involved have dealt another blow to the The authorities will continue to hit Islamists hard. Senior officials credibility of President Olusegun Obasanjo’s post-election say over 600 are in captivity and this could rise to over 800. Independent government (AC Vol 44 No 13). Obasanjo was already under public estimates put the number far higher. Independent monthly Telquel attack by former allies such as Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka and reported that anything from 2,000 to 5,000 people could have been former Inspector General of Police M.D. Yusufu. Worried about held. However, the government has resisted calls to ban the Islamist military reaction to growing lawlessness, the Chief of Defence Staff, Parti de la Justice et du Développement (PJD), the third largest party General Alexander Ogomudia, warned senior officers at the War in parliament (AC Vol 44 No 11). It has kept a low profile since 16 College in Abuja to keep out of the Ngige affair, leaving it for civilian May and has committed itself to fielding only a few candidates in the politicians to resolve. planned 12 September local elections. The PJD is undoubtedly a vehicle for bringing Islamist politicians into the mainstream, with the ‘Kill and go’ biggest radical movement, Sheikh Abdessalam Yacine’s Al Adl wal The plot reads like a scene from ‘The Godfather’. On 10 July, Ngige Ihsane (Justice and Charity) banned. It takes care to play by the rules, ‘disappeared’. Then the Anambra State Assembly was convened to accepting the monarchy’s leading role and expelling some high- hear his letter of resignation read out and his deputy, Okey Udeh, was profile members who argued for the immediate imposition of Sharia sworn in to replace him. It then emerged that Ngige had been arrested (Islamic law). They include lawyers now representing four well by Mobile Police (popularly known as ‘Kill and go’). The unit was led known Islamist clerics – known in the French-language press as the by an Assistant Inspector General of Police, Raphael Ige. Ngige was ‘prêcheurs de la haine’ or ‘preachers of hatred’ – who the authorities kept in a hotel room, from which he managed to alert Vice-President say were the spiritual fathers of Salafiya al Jihadiya and other groups. Atiku Abubakar, using a smuggled telephone. On a crackling line, Backing the security group is Prime Minister , a Ngige denied he had resigned. He was rescued and restored to office. Casablanca businessman who has emerged among M6’s best trusted The kidnapping, Ngige said, was the brainchild of 37-year-old aides (AC Vol 43 No 21). Jettou had previously brought his management Chris Uba, a chieftain of Obasanjo’s People’s Democratic Party skills to helping to dismantle the old Basri empire in the Interior (PDP) and self-styled godfather in Anambra State. His elder brother, Ministry. He has used the post-bombing mood to regain the initiative Nnamdi Uba, is a doctor with major oil industry interests and one of over political rivals gathered around the main political parties, including Obasanjo’s closest advisors. According to a Senate report, the police the Union Socialiste des Forces Populaires (USFP) and Istiqlal were accompanied by Senator Ike Abana (since removed by the (Independence). These formed the core of the previous government Electoral Commission) and House of Representatives member Chuma led by USFP chief and are strongly Nzeribe. Nzeribe was said to have ‘been next only to Chief Uba in represented in its successor. executing the plan’, coercing State Assembly officials at gunpoint to The traditional parties are challenged by the PJD, even though it is act on the resignation letter and installing a new governor. Then it seeking not to make too big a splash during September’s local emerged that Ngige had signed a letter of resignation before the

4 29 August 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 17 election: reportedly there is a videotape of him doing so in a toilet. ‘transformed’ corporations should be rewarded with tax cuts. ‘Non- Such tactics are said to have been pioneered by Obasanjo, who insists transformed’ companies may find themselves paying more taxes; his appointees sign undated letters of resignation before being sworn already, the ‘transformation’ credentials of companies are being used into office. as key criteria for awarding government contracts. Uba’s relationship with Ngige was a strictly business one: he would Black economic empowerment (BEE) deals, struck since the finance Ngige’s election campaign and in return, the Governor would African National Congress’s return from exile in 1990, on the whole obey instructions on contract awards and appointments. Relations have done little more than to enrich ‘black fat cats’ and public opinion soured badly when Uba’s demands on the state treasury proved has turned against this form of empowerment. Now, Minister of Trade excessive and when he insisted on appointing the Governor’s personal and Industry Alec Erwin is piloting through parliament a ‘broad- staff (contrary to the terms of their agreement). based’ BEE bill, incorporating changes proposed at public hearings by Far from being contrite, Uba insisted that Ngige was ungrateful and business, labour and politicians. The new legislation seems to reflect had broken their agreement and prevented him from recouping his most of the key points of the Oppenheimers’ Brenthurst Initiative (BI), investment. Uba holds no public office but his home is guarded by 15 as their proposal is called, after the family estate in Johannesburg Mobile Policemen and four State Security Service officers. Even where it was launched in early August. The government is meanwhile hardened observers of Nigerian politics are shocked by the lack of distancing itself from the idea of BEE as a meal ticket for fat cats and action on the kidnapping: there are growing calls for those involved to has tried to broaden its definitions of empowerment. be charged with treason. When the Senate called for ‘a judicial The Oppenheimers believe ‘transformation’ must go hand in hand commission of inquiry’ into the kidnapping ‘to identify and prosecute with economic growth, so that the two can kick-start South Africa’s all those found culpable’, PDP Chairman Audu Ogbeh called for stalled domestic and foreign direct investment. They propose a ‘forgiveness’. The only sanction against Uba so far has been his National Transformation Scorecard to monitor companies’ performance expulsion from the PDP and Ogbeh suggested this might be reversed. so that businesspeople know where they stand. The BI envisages the The Police Commission retired Ige but he was going anyway. ‘transformation’ process being in place for 10-15 years, after which Nevertheless, Uba has taken the matter to the High Court to block further large-scale support for BEE should be unnecessary. They attempts to prosecute him. The hearing was presided over by Justice propose that once a rate has been fixed for tax rewards, it should Wilson Egbo-Egbo, who issued an ambiguous ex-parte motion, remain fixed – so that the goalposts are not moved at a later date. interpreted by some as prohibiting Ngige ‘to parade himself as Without certainty over their future commitments to ‘transformation’, governor’ and protecting Uba from prosecution. The action was the Oppenheimers say, investors will stay away. Rightly or wrongly, denounced by judges, such as Justice Paul Onumajuru of the Owerri SA is seen as a relatively high risk destination for investment. Judicial Division who called it a ‘scar left on the system’. Some analysts hope the exchange of views will lead to SA’s first The affair has deepened divisions between Obasanjo and Abubakar, non-racial debate about race. The BI offers this guidance: translate the who took the emergency call from Ngige, visited him afterwards and obsession with risk into a mood of confidence; see ‘transformation’ as condemned the abductors. It must be intensely irritating to Obasanjo voluntary rather than enforced. As debate unfolds, President Thabo for the much abused Atiku to take a moral stand on a political matter. Mbeki could be caught between the black elite and the black masses, Obasanjo’s deafening silence on the Ngige affair may be due to his who account for most of the ANC’s political constituency and who are political debts in the south-east. Such was the unpopularity of becoming restive over the government’s failure to deliver on its Obasanjo’s PDP there, it had to work with godfathers such as Uba to election promises. If Mbeki sticks with BEE in its present form, he bring in votes in the 19 April presidential election. Quite how Uba and could be seen as siding with aspiring black Oppenheimers. his associates brought victory for the PDP (in some areas the votes outnumbered the voters), the party barons in Abuja aren’t eager to A family affair discover. Whatever the truth, Uba believes he deserves protection. Nicky Oppenheimer is Chairman and his 31-year-old son Jonathan is However, in case public outrage gets out of hand, Uba and family are a director of De Beers, the world’s biggest diamond company. The BI currently enjoying an extended holiday in the United States. was launched at Little Brenthurst by Nicky for the benefit of about 100 hand-picked guests, mainly business, academic and political leaders, SOUTH AFRICA including Mbeki, Erwin and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel. De Beers and the Anglo American Corporation are not formally included in the BI. The Oppenheimer family has a 45 per cent interest in De Beers but a mere 3 per cent stake now in Anglo American, which Busy bees in turn has a 45 per cent interest in De Beers. The Oppenheimers, therefore, through their stake in Anglo, have a controlling edge in De The Oppenheimer mining dynasty clambers Beers. The remaining 10 per cent in De Beers is held by Debswana (of on to the black empowerment bandwagon Botswana, where De Beers has substantial mining operations). Steam is building in the empowerment debate. Now the Oppenheimer The BI bears uncanny similarities to an earlier Oppenheimer initiative. family, which for 100 years has dominated South African gold and In the 1960s, under pressure from the apartheid regime, the diamond production, has made another of its ‘strategic interventions’ Oppenheimers sold the General Mining company cheaply to Afrikaners, in national politics and economics. Its latest initiative is rocking a a people largely excluded from the industry. It was a kind of Afrikaner divided business community by calling on the white-dominated private economic empowerment. ‘In that way, they [the Oppenheimers] sector to commit itself to supporting black ‘economic transformation’. enabled white Afrikaners to enter the market. Now they realise that Current clan leaders Nicholas (Nicky) and Jonathan Oppenheimer blacks also have to enter,’ notes labour consultant Duncan Innes. have launched a national debate on their proposal, presenting voluntary The line-up for and against BI shows how economic/political transformation as preferable to enforced change and as an opportunity viewpoints are being reshuffled. Mbeki has given his blessing to the rather than a threat. In return, they have proposed that racially BI principle but not the details; mainstream capital will follow the

5 29 August 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 17 Background to Brenthurst In 2002, the draft of government legislation on a mining charter was leaked discussion in small workshops of experts and by November, father and son to reveal that 51 per cent of the mining industry was earmarked for black were able to present their plan to Mbeki. Later, they briefed senior African ownership by 2014. This caused a crash in SA mining equities and although National Congress officials. Mbeki then directed the Oppenheimers to his the charter which emerged months later lowered the black ownership target Finance and Trade and Industry Ministers, Trevor Manuel and Alec to 26 per cent, the damage had been done. An estimated eleven billion rand Erwin, to test their reactions and refine the plan. Manuel showed a (US$1.5 bn.) flowed out of SA in six months, caused by uncertainty over reluctance for tax incentives – differentiated tax systems in this context possible future demands on potential investors, plus the cost of doing could create an administrative nightmare. He and Erwin pointed to incentives business in the country. The capital outflow of R11 bn. contrasted with an that were already in place to reward companies active in black empowerment. average foreign capital inflow over the preceding seven years of R19 bn. SA Mbeki gave the plan his overall blessing at a meeting with the now has net capital inflows but has not recovered those lost. Oppenheimers on 19 June, without specifically endorsing any of the After the crash, President Thabo Mbeki asked mining industry captains proposals. He gave the presidential blessing at a public debate about to help prevent a recurrence and executives such as Anglo American’s Tony transformation in the library at Little Brenthurst. The Brenthurst Initiative Trahar and Anglo Platinum’s Barry Davison appeared with ministers in debate is likely to gather momentum in the months ahead, at formal a government-business road show that visited London, Britain, to calm conferences on ‘transformation’ and at more informal exchanges between investor fears. During this after-shock, which hit both government and the leading opinion makers. It could also spark a revival of the Brenthurst mining industry equally, Mbeki despatched his legal adviser, Mojanku Group, a gathering of top business and political leaders which met in the Gumbi, to the Oppenheimer residence to seek the family’s assistance. early 1990s and eased Mandela’s transition from the primal nationalisation Nicky and Jonathan Oppenheimer approached the Bain consultancy in proposals of the Freedom Charter, a broad policy document of progressive London, a firm retained by De Beers. By August last year, a plan was under forces which the ANC had adopted in 1956. Oppenheimers, even if some companies are sceptical; the media, measures are weighted. Scorecards are particularly relevant for firms especially financial, have been favourable; and most economists and seeking government contracts or licences. analysts accept that ‘transformation’ needs a complete rethink. The charters, essentially partnerships with the private sector, will be Manuel and Erwin have separate doubts. Manuel has pledged ten developed in strategically important sectors, as defined by government. billion rand (US$1.36 bn.) for empowerment but the two ministers They include mining, finance, and information and communication differ in approach. Erwin has problems with the practicalities of technology. Some sectors are drafting their charters, government will implementing the Transformation Scorecard and applying it in tandem initiate others. The Minister of Minerals and Energy, Phumzile with a differential tax system, though he is not opposed to tax Mlambo-Ngcuka, one of government’s most vocal and active incentives as such. Manuel has problems with the administration of a proponents of BEE, describes the process as ‘inclusive capitalism’. differential tax system but is not opposed to the Transformation One leading critic of the empowerment strategies adopted so far is Scorecard. Some critics say the Oppenheimers have not taken the Moeletsi Mbeki, brother of the President, a businessman and deputy measure of Mbeki, who could get the most out of the initiative, avoid Chairperson of the Oppenheimer-funded SA Institute of International cutting corporate taxes and later demand more black empowerment. Affairs. With a long history of criticising the ANC from the left, Among the invited guests at the launch were African BEE Moeletsi worked as a journalist in exile and was regarded by colleagues heavyweights, now in the firing line as ‘fat cats’: Mvelaphanda’s as a Maoist. On his return, he worked for Cosatu and tried to set up a Tokyo Sexwale, Nail’s Saki Macazoma, Real Africa’s Don Ncube, newspaper that would support the ANC-Cosatu-SACP alliance. He Safika’s Moss Ngoasheng and even Cyril Ramaphosa (AC Vol 44 has since acquired a range of business interests, including television No 9), once the then President Nelson Mandela’s choice for SA’s production and African railroads. Moeletsi says BEE leaders are not presidency. Other guests were Inkatha Freedom Party leader and the entrepreneurs but political agents and SA will ‘end up with politicians Minister of Home Affairs, Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, ex-President running the private sector, and that is a recipe for disaster’. He Frederik Willem de Klerk and Democratic Alliance leader Tony dismisses all BEE transactions as ‘involving the transfer of marginal Leon (each of these has his own reservations about the BI). assets to politically connected individuals’ and promoting a class of For the Congress of SA Trade Unions and the SA Communist Party, business people who live off pre-existing entreprises which they did the BI does not focus enough on training and employment equity and not help to create. ‘What we need are entrepreneurs, people who start it bypasses workers. Significantly, the SACP has welcomed the BI new businesses, take risks and create new jobs,’ he says. Under BEE, debate. Also scornful of the BI are free market economists such as people take no risks and are encouraged ‘to live off the fat of the land.’ Brian Kantor (ex-Cape Town University economics professor) who Cosatu also notes that BEE has benefited only a small elite of black argue that growth best drives ‘transformation’, and Standard Bank South Africans. It supports the principle underlying BEE but argues economist Iraj Abedian, who says BI thinking is 20 years out of date. that it must empower the black majority – the poor and the working In September, parliament is due to pass the Broad-Based Black class, who it says have reaped little benefit aside from a few highly Economic Empowerment Act, which for the first time establishes a publicised schemes and community projects. Empowerment, in legislative framework for promoting BEE and sets out guidelines and Cosatu’s view, is about creating jobs, improving wages and developing incentives. The government has opted not to overregulate BEE but small business and community cooperatives. This brings Cosatu into instead to provide what it calls ‘firm guidance’. Two important tools conflict with government and those black businesspeople, like Thami in the legislation are scorecards and charters. The scorecards will be Mazwai, owner of Mafube Publishing, who believe the creation of a used to measure companies’ progress, looking at equity in ownership, black wealthy class is part of the ‘normalisation’ of South African management and employment, at the degree to which skills of the society. This is unacceptable, says Cosatu, when unemployment has historically disadvantaged are developed and at procurement levels risen from 16 per cent of the work force (excluding those people not from black-owned business. Each of these and other, sector-specific looking for work) in 1995 to 30.5 per cent in 2003. 6 29 August 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 17

the countries that have signed the controversial Article 98 agreement GAMBIA not to hand over US citizens to the International Criminal Court. Jammeh would like his conservative friends in Washington to help Gambia develop as a transshipment hub for African oil and gas but there is tough competition along the Gulf of Guinea for this job and Friends new and old Banjul will need all the help it can get. It remains to be seen whether Jammeh must keep new friends in D.C. away good relations with Washington will be enough to dissuade Jammeh from old mates in Tripoli and Monrovia from keeping in touch with his old friend Taylor. Anywhere but in Gambia, such an eccentric and autocratic regime In recent years, President Yahya Jammeh has quietly established as Jammeh’s might have attracted more attention. However, it is himself as one of former Liberian President Charles Taylor’s best tolerated fatalistically and there seems little likelihood of regime allies in West Africa. Their relationship seemed to grow as Taylor’s change, though the Jola ethnic group, which constitutes just 10 per alliance waned with President Blaise Compaoré of Burkina Faso, cent of the population, dominates it. Jammeh himself came to power once the linch-pin of his regional network. A few days before leaving in a coup, legitimised himself under pressure and still relies on the Monrovia for Calabar, Liberian former First Lady Jewel Taylor flew military and security services to keep him in power. Jammeh has to Banjul with a large group of family members, apparently to set up benefited from confusion in the ranks of the opposition and the a fallback in case the Nigerian deal fell through. complicity of an indulgent international community. If his human The most direct connection between Taylor and the Gambian leader rights violations are less blatant than at first, there have been other is through one of Jammeh’s closest confidants, Baba Jobe, a key doubts over aspects of his regime. Members of his government had figure in the ruling Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction been associated with unorthodox financial dealings. (APRC), the political party Jammeh set up when he converted himself Accusations surfaced earlier this year that a part of the oil purchased from soldier to politician before the 1996 presidential election. Jobe, under a contract with Nigeria was being diverted for sale abroad but like his boss a Jola from Foni Division (province), rose through the were strongly denied by State House. The groundnut sector has been party youth organisation known as the July 22 Movement, which was in confusion since February 1999 when the government seized officially dissolved in 2001 after complaints of thuggery. processing plants belonging to Swiss firm Alimenta, which had been In January 2002, Jobe stood for parliament and became majority handling groundnut marketing. The government accused the company leader in the Assembly, though six months earlier the United Nations of using Groundnut Corporation as a front for money had described him as an arms trafficker and put him on a travel laundering but Alimenta challenged the action in international courts blacklist because of his role in Liberian support for the rebel and won a compensation award of US$11.4 million for lost earnings Revolutionary United Front (RUF) in Sierra Leone. His Gambia and investment. The settlement was not achieved without a few New Millennium Air company helped to supply arms via Banjul and threats from donors. Monrovia, and his brother was a senior officer in Taylor’s militia. Meanwhile, there are signs that there may soon be a new surge from Taylor, who had resented former President Sir ’s the opposition, despite rivalry between United Democratic Party enthusiastic support for the force sent to Liberia in 1990 by the leader Ousainou Darboe and the vociferous Lamin Waa Juwara of Economic Community of West African States (known as the Ecowas the National Democratic Action Movement. The former ruling People’s Monitoring Group, Ecomog) visited Jammeh in 1996 and described Progressive Party (PPP) is now led by Jawara’s former Agriculture him as like-minded. Other Gambian connections to Liberia date back Minister, Omar Amadou Jallow (‘OJ’), whom Jammeh has gaoled to the start of Taylor’s rebellion and include Gambia’s own best- more than once. Jallow spent some time in Britain and the USA known rebel, the maverick Kukoi Samba Sanyang, one of the earlier this year drumming up support, and the PPP plans its first putschists who tried to overthrow Jawara in 1981. He drew attention congress in more than a decade before the end of this year. to himself a few years ago by calling on Jammeh at State House in the company of Jobe, and as another fellow Jola from Foni, appears to be Correction – AC Vol 44 No 16 – Somalia: ‘Arta I, Arta II: we said that Puntland an old friend of the President. President Abdullahi Yussef had served in the late President Mohamed Siad Early in his presidency, Jammeh presented himself as a devout Barre’s security. In fact, Abdullahi took arms against Siad Barre in 1979. It is Muslim keen to halt the corruption of the past, and while many states Somaliland President Mohamed Dahir Riyale Kahin who was in Siad’s security shunned his military regime, he cultivated ties with backers such as when it was fighting to destroy the Somaliland nationalism he now represents. Libya. Yet ties have more recently warmed with the United States Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com and since the 11 September 2001 attacks, Jammeh has been trying to Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. ingratiate himself in Washington as a warrior against terrorism. They Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. are unlikely allies but old friends: in 1990, the young US-trained Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk Lieutenant Jammeh headed the Gambian bodyguard for George W. and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Bush on his only official foreign visit representing the US government Confidential in advance: before becoming President. This foreign relations volte-face probably Institutions: Africa £328 – UK/Europe £385 – USA $970 – ROW £502 explains Jammeh’s current support for proposals to ban Muslim girls Corporates: Africa £424 – UK/Europe £472 – USA $1093 – ROW £589 from wearing the veil in school, which has created a much publicised Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £91 or USA $131 African Studies Assoc. members: UK/Europe £70 – Americas $102 – ROW £70 rift with State House Imam Abdoulie Fatty. All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept In November 2000, Jammeh was the first head of state officially to American Express, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. congratulate Bush on winning the presidency, even before the settlement Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 1354, 9600 of the ballot dispute. In recognition of what it sees as increasing Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2XG England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 778315 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 471775 democratisation, the USA reinstated military aid to Gambia in 2002, Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. a key diplomatic indicator, and it is no surprise to find Gambia among ISSN 0044-6483

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d’Ivoire also face worsening conditions. Though Pointers CÔTE D’IVOIRE the new UN force could be deployed by 15 September, Paris officials say early October is a SUDAN more realistic exit date. Paris plotters The UN force is meant to deploy throughout As relations worsen between President Laurent Ituri, where over 250 people have been massacred Peace or what? Gbagbo and Prime Minister Seydou Diarra, a in the past month, on a tough Chapter VII peace After collapsing on 24 August, peace talks will coup plot is no great surprise. But the plotters, a enforcement mandate. That has sparked a political resume on 10 September, with ‘final agreement’ group of mercenaries led by veteran troublemaker row in Uruguay, which sent 700 troops to Bunia in due on 20 September. As the National Islamic Staff Sergeant Ibrahim Coulibaly (‘IB’), were April to tackle growing violence after Ugandan Front tries to sabotage the talks and the Sudan arrested not in Abidjan but by French security troops left. Uruguay’s troops, then under a weaker People’s Liberation Army agrees everything agents at Paris’s Méridien Montparnasse hotel mandate, were told to shoot only in self-defence mediators propose, this will show whether and Roissy-Charles de Gaulle airport. or to protect UN bases. Yet Congolese blamed mediators want a quick fix or real peace (AC Vol This time, IB seems to have been acting on his them for not stopping over 600 people being 43 No 15) and raises questions about Egypt. own account rather than in alliance with any of murdered in Bunia in May alone. More macho After attempts in July and August at a final Gbagbo’s opponents. A leader of the 1999 coup Uruguayan soldiers want to correct that image. agreement, a deafening silence from SPLA and that toppled President Henri Konan Bédié and a Uruguay’s leftist parliamentary opposition mediators spoke volumes. Since it condemned key figure behind the September 2002 rebellion, threatened to vote against deploying troops under the mediators’ Draft Document in July, the NIF IB left his Burkina Faso refuge for France on 20 the tougher mandate and were unconvinced by has unremittingly attacked Machakos. President August after falling out with President Blaise Defence Minister Yamandu Fau’s claims that Omer el Beshir told the mediators to ‘go to hell’ Compaoré. IB’s relations with Ivorian opposition troops would be safer with a more ‘flexible’ amid a campaign to undermine the chief mediator, leader Alassane Ouattara have deteriorated and mandate. Parliamentarians also accused the General Lazaro Sumbeiywo (to fuel differences he is said to be jealous of Guillaume Soro, head Defence Ministry of failing to tell Uruguayans between ex-President Daniel arap Moi’s security of the Mouvement Patriotique de la Côte d’Ivoire, about conditions for the soldiers: the press reported chief and the new Nairobi government). Mediators for taking the mantle he feels is rightly his. 700 were staying in barracks meant for 200 and refer to this as ‘posturing’ but the SPLA expects Even if the plot didn’t represent a new front that several had nervous breakdowns after the NIF to resume full-scale war. against Gbagbo, it shows how bad things have got witnessing massacres. Some Sudanese fear Cairo plans a military role. (AC Vol 44 No 10). Diarra avoids appearing on Some Uruguayan troops are prepared for the This may not be the result the United States the same platform as Gbagbo, and senior opposition risks. ‘In a year of peacekeeping, they earn as intended if, as many believe, it has swapped figures fear for their security. Bédié, who returned much as they would in 10 years of service,’ a Egypt’s acquiescence on Iraq and Israel for to Abidjan on 8 August after seven months in senior officer said. Soldiers in Congo earn silence on the NIF. Cairo shouts about defending Paris, does not feel safe enough to stay long. US$500-$700 a month, plus their salaries and a 50 the unity of an ‘Arab country’ and the Nile Waters, A gloomy 8 August United Nations’ report per cent bonus. Montevideo defence sources said thereby defending the same NIF which tried to highlighted the activities of loyalist militias in the armed forces would earn some US$20 million murder President Hosni Mubarak. Since Sudan Abidjan but if anything, underestimated the gravity from peacekeeping missions this year – that’s cannot remain united under an Islamist government of the security situation. Shipping sources say the almost 10 per cent of the defence budget. except by force, this will not bring peace. government is still bringing in arms; loyalist Under its Sudan Peace Act, the USA reviews in militias are training not just in Abidjan but in Bété CONGO-K/MOROCCO October whether parties are negotiating in good villages in the west, and the first peacekeeper faith. Backed by Cairo, Khartoum is working to fatalities, two French soldiers, were killed by get the SPLA blamed for failure. ‘What is needed rebels on 25 August in the western security zone Ties that bind now is to influence Garang and not the government that was supposed to be weapons-free. Having given sanctuary to late President Mobutu of Sudan, which expressed good intentions’, said Sese Seko, Morocco is maintaining close ties with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Mahir. CONGO-K/URUGUAY Joseph Kabila, some of whose intelligence and Sudanese daily El Ray el Aam is campaigning close protection agents are being trained by against self-determination (agreed to by the NIF Moroccan security. Morocco has agreed to train in all of its ‘peace agreements’, most recently at No French leave some 250 agents over three years and some 50 Machakos in 2002). All this just reinforces After weeks of denials, the French-led Interim have undergone training in Kenitra. Congo-K has southern resolve. Emergency Multinational Force is to stay in traditionally backed Morocco over Western Although the USA is keen to ‘solve’ Sudan Congo’s north-east Ituri district past its declared Sahara, where Rabat feels it has few friends. quickly, President George Bush’s own exit date of 1 September to assist United Nations The two states maintain close ties, with 550 constituency won’t allow a sell-out of southerners. peacekeepers to deploy under a UN Security Moroccans serving in the UN Congo mission, and With much debate in Washington, the NIF cannot Council resolution of 26 August. The planned Congolese central bank officials regularly yet count on appeasing the USA. John force – of 700 Uruguayans, about 1,200 attending training seminars at Bank Al-Maghrib Prendergast (ex-National Security Council, now Bangladeshis, and more Nepalese and Pakistani (central bank of Morocco), which is helping Congo at International Crisis Group) provoked NIF wrath troops – won’t be ready on time to tackle the draw up anti-money laundering legislation. on Al Jazeera television by talking of possible war growing threat from Ituri’s armed groups. Meanwhile, Mobutu’s widow, Bobi Ladawa, crimes trials for NIF leaders if they destroy French military planners, who opposed the has preferred to leave the Rabat villa where she Machakos. Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Congo deployment but were overruled by President and her family had lived comfortably among the Ismael refused to meet Prendergast, an architect Jacques Chirac, will be further dismayed by this Congolese community since the Leopard’s death of Bill Clinton’s policy of isolating Khartoum. slippage, especially when French troops in Côte in 1997 and is finalising a move to Portugal.

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