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Data Detectives: Tropical Unit 2 – The Life of a

Unit 2 The Life of a Cyclone In this unit, you will learn • What are the stages in the life of a ? • How, where, and why do tropical cyclones die? • How do scientists track tropical ? • How do you determine the intensity of a tropical ? NASA/GSFC

Three satellite images superimposed on the same map show the development of Hurricane Georges on September 25, 1998.

33 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

34 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Warm-up 2.1 Observing tropical cyclones Th e 1900 Galveston Hurricane was the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Why was this hurricane so destructive? Part of the answer is that, in 1900, forecasters had to make predictions based almost exclusively on direct observation. Th e , the tides, and the changing and air pressure were their only clues that a hurricane was coming. Unfortunately, by the time they realized it, the storm was nearly upon them. Th e forecasters had little time to warn the residents to evacuate or to seek shelter. Today’s forecasters use sophisticated tools to locate and track tropical cyclones well before they make landfall. By modeling tropical cyclones Media Viewer web site on computers, researchers are improving their ability to accurately If you have any view of the predict storm tracks. Using satellites and other modern tools, forecasters cyclones.apr project open in observe and measure cyclones remotely. To learn about both direct ArcView, you can click the Media and indirect methods of observing tropical cyclones, point your Web Viewer button and choose browser to the following NOAA Web site: Observing Tropical Cyclones from the media list to open this hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/observation.htm web page in your browser. On the NOAA Web page, click on each of the technologies to learn Who or what is NOAA? more about it. Find out how each tool helps scientists monitor these dangerous storms. In Table 1, list the name of each technology and tell NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. whether it provides a direct or an indirect method of observation.

It is a government agency NOAA that conducts research and gathers data about the , 3 atmosphere, space, and . 1 2 NOAA warns of dangerous weather, charts our seas and skies, guides our use and protection of and coastal resources, and conducts research to improve our 5 6 understanding and stewardship of the environment. 4 Part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA provides Table 1 — Modern weather-observation technologies services through fi ve major organizations. Number Name of technology Direct or Indirect? • 1 • National Ocean Service • National Marine Fisheries 2 Service 3 • National Environmental 4 Satellite, Data and Information Service 5 • NOAA Research and special 6 program units

Observing tropical cyclones 35 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

1. What are the two main types of satellite imagery used in tropical cyclone forecasting?

2. Radiosondes and dropsondes help us understand the structure of tropical cyclones by measuring and transmitting information about which atmospheric properties?

3. What is the most direct method of measuring the speeds within a tropical cyclone?

4. Which two important properties of tropical cyclones are measured using radar?

36 Observing tropical cyclones Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Investigation 2.2 Tracking Hurricane Georges Tropical cyclones do not start out fully developed. Like people, who grow from infant to child to adult, tropical cyclones also experience stages of growth. Unfortunately, instead of “mellowing out,” hurricanes get nastier and generally more dangerous with age. Th is investigation explores the development of a single hurricane, Georges (pronounced zhorzh), that aff ected Atlantic and Caribbean coastal communities in September 1998. Launch ArcView, locate and open the cyclones.apr fi le, and open the Tracking Georges view. Th is view shows the path, or track, of Hurricane Georges as it swept across the Atlantic and the Caribbean. Hurricane Georges was the 19th most deadly tropical cyclone in history. Th e large number of casualties occurred as Georges passed directly over several Caribbean islands. An in the Th is view’s table of contents contains seven themes, labeled by date and time, that show satellite images of Hurricane Georges at diff erent points along its journey across the .

To turn a theme on or off , click its Begin with the 9/15 10:19 UT theme, then turn on each of the checkbox in the Table of Contents. seven hurricane image themes in order by date. Th e hurricane’s clouds were not bright colors like those you see on your screen (Figure 1). Th ese false colors show the temperatures of the cloud tops recorded by the satellite’s infrared sensor. Grays and whites represent the warmest temperatures, whereas greens, yellows, and reds show the coldest (Figure 2). Temperature decreases with Higher cloud tops = Cooler temperatures = Stronger convection red NOAA orange

yellow Lower cloudtops =

green Warmer temperatures = Weaker convection blue

violet Increasing altitude white Decreasing temperature Decreasing

gray

black Figure 1. False-color image of Hurricane Georges. The highest (coldest) cloudtops shown in orange and yellow, indicate where Figure 2. Relationship between color, cloud temperature, and height upward convection is strongest. in false-color satellite images.

Tracking Hurricane Georges 37 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Universal Time (UT) altitude, so colder temperatures indicate higher cloud tops. As the The times listed in the Hurricane upward convection in a storm intensifi es, clouds rise higher into the Georges IR Images layer group atmosphere. Th us, the cloud temperatures tell us about the strength of are in 24-hour Universal Time the convection, which in turn indicates the energy of the hurricane. format. Abbreviated UT, this is the time at 0° longitude, or the prime 1. On what date did Hurricane Georges make landfall on the U.S. meridian. mainland? How many days did it take Hurricane Georges to travel The U.S. Atlantic Coast is 5 time across the Atlantic Ocean before landfall? zones of the prime meridian. Subtract 5 hours from Universal Time to get local time for the Atlantic Coast.

2. Convert the number of days from question 1 into hours.

3. In what direction did Georges travel as it crossed the ocean?

Now you will measure the total distance Georges traveled and use it to fi nd the average rate of travel, or speed of the storm. Using the Measure tool , click on the September 15 storm center. Drag the measuring tool through each of the fi ve storm centers. Double-click on the last storm center (September 27) to fi nish the measurement. Th e total distance Georges traveled (Length) is reported in the status bar. Read distance here (your distance will be different).

4. How far (in km) did Georges travel?

5. Use this distance and the number of hours you calculated in question 2 to fi nd Georges’ average speed (in km/hr) as it crossed the Atlantic Ocean (speed = distance ÷ time).

38 Tracking Hurricane Georges Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

6. An average person walks at a speed of about 6.5 km/hr, and runs at about 10 km/hr. Compare these rates with the average speed you calculated for Hurricane Georges.

7. If a major tropical cyclone is spotted 500 km off shore, how much warning time might a coastal community have before the storm strikes? (time = distance ÷ speed)

On the path of a killer Next you will learn about the countries aff ected by Georges as it traveled across the Atlantic. Look at the Storm Track theme, which shows the path of the center of the hurricane as it crossed the Atlantic Ocean. Turn the Georges images on and off as needed to better see the track. Activate the Countries theme. Using the Identify tool , click on a country or island and read To activate a theme, click on its name in the Table of Contents. the Name of the country in the Identify Results window. If you need to identify U.S. states, activate the States theme before using the Identify tool . 8. Identify these landmarks associated with Hurricane Georges as it crossed the Atlantic Ocean: a. Hurricane Georges formed south of this group of islands off the west coast of : ______. b. Georges passed directly over three large Caribbean island countries and one U.S. territory. Th ese are ______, ______, ______, and ______. c. Th e fi rst U.S. state aff ected by Georges’ heavy rainfall and strong winds was ______. d. Th e U.S. state where the eye of Hurricane Georges fi rst made landfall was ______.

Hurricane formation Click the QuickLoad button , select the Formation and Movement view, and click OK. Turn on the Formation Points theme.

Tracking Hurricane Georges 39 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Each point in this theme indicates where a storm system fi rst showed the typical features of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic between 1950 – 2005. Notice that the points are not evenly distributed. 9. On Map 1, identify and label two areas where hurricane formation in the Atlantic appears to be concentrated. Map 1 — North Atlantic Ocean hurricane-formation regions

Turn on the End Points theme. Look for areas where hurricanes appear to lose strength and die. 10. Identify and label two areas on Map 1 where hurricanes tend to weaken and die out. Turn on the Hurricane Tracks theme. Do not be fooled Th e tangled lines are the paths traveled by Atlantic hurricanes from 1950 Remember that each hurricane to 2005. Each path was defi ned by recording the location of a storm’s track represents the path traveled center at regular intervals and then connecting the dots. Before the by a large and dangerous storm. existence of weather satellites, storm locations were discovered by aircraft Each storm aff ected an area far and by reports from ships at sea. Next, you will determine the number of wider than the thin lines you see. hurricanes that have crossed the Atlantic over the past 50 years. How many hurricanes? Every hurricane is a unique event with its own “personality.” Th is may be one reason why it seems fi tting to give hurricanes human names. Still, most hurricanes go through similar life cycles. Next, you will determine how many hurricanes occurred between 1950 and 2005. Activate the Hurricane Tracks theme. Click the Open Th eme Table button . Read the total number of hurricanes from the status bar above the table (as shown below): Read total here. Your answer will be different.

40 Tracking Hurricane Georges Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

11. How many Atlantic-basin hurricanes occurred between 1950 – 2005?

12. What is the average number of hurricanes that occur each year in the Atlantic Ocean basin? (total number of hurricanes ÷ years)

Close the theme table. Turn off the Formation Points and End Points themes.

Global wind patterns and hurricane tracks Next you will look at wind patterns and determine their infl uence on hurricane movement in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. Turn on the Wind Patterns (km/hr) theme. Prevailing winds — surface winds that generally fl ow in the Use the Zoom In to examine the wind data in the North same direction for long time Atlantic Ocean. periods. In general, winds over the U.S. mainland blow from the Th e arrows indicate the direction of prevailing winds over the Atlantic southwest, and are called the Ocean. prevailing . 13. In what direction do the prevailing winds over the Atlantic Ocean appear to be moving near the ? Reading coordinates The cursor’s longitude and are displayed on the right end of the tool bar. 14. In what direction do the prevailing winds over the Atlantic Ocean longitude appear to be moving near 40° N latitude? latitude

15. Do the prevailing winds over the Atlantic appear to be rotating? If so, are they rotating clockwise or counterclockwise?

Turn off the Wind Patterns (km/hr) theme. Activate the Hurricane Tracks theme. Using the Select Feature tool , click on one of the hurricane tracks. One or more hurricane paths will be highlighted. Repeat this several times at random locations and try to identify any general patterns in hurricane movement.

Tracking Hurricane Georges 41 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

16. Draw the general pattern(s) of hurricane movement on Map 2. Be sure to include arrows to indicate the direction of movement. Map 2 — -movement patterns

Choose View Full Extent to view the entire map. Turn on the Global Tropical Cyclone Movement theme. 17. Describe the relationship between the paths of Atlantic tropical cyclones and global wind patterns.

Quit ArcView and do not save changes.

42 Tracking Hurricane Georges Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Reading 2.3 Classifying tropical cyclones An average tropical cyclone lasts about 12 days. If conditions are favorable, it may progress through four stages of development. 1 – Tropical disturbance A tropical cyclone begins as a low-pressure area with warm, moist air rising from the ocean surface. As the moisture condenses, clouds and form. If the system sustains itself for 24 hours, it is called a tropical disturbance. Winds in a tropical disturbance blow at up to 36 km/hr (22 mph), but the system has very little rotation. NASA/GSFC 2 – Tropical depression As convection intensifi es and the surface pressure decreases further, the tropical disturbance begins to rotate. When the winds reach speeds over Central eye 36 km/hr (22 mph), the system is classifi ed as a tropical depression. Rain bands Eye 3 – Tropical storm wall If a tropical depression intensifi es, with wind speeds increasing to 63 km/hr (39 mph) or higher, it is called a tropical storm, and is assigned a name. Th e eye of the storm may become visible, and the storm begins to resemble a tropical cyclone in many ways.

Figure 1. Tropical cyclone structure. 4 – Tropical cyclone Eye — a region of relatively calm, When wind speeds exceed 117 km/hr (73 mph), the storm is classifi ed as clear air that forms as rising air a tropical cyclone or hurricane. Distinct bands of thunderstorms rotate from the thunderstorms converges around the eye of the storm. Th e eye is an area of calm surrounded by and sinks in the center of the the eye wall, where the winds reach their maximum speed.

storm. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA Eye wall — ring of tall thunderstorms surrounding the eye, where the strongest winds and rain are found. Edouard Rain bands — long bands of tropical cyclone thunderstorms spiraling inward toward the eye wall .

Fran tropical storm Gustav tropical depression Hortense tropical disturbance

Figure 2. Tropical cyclone family portrait. This unique satellite image taken on August 31, 1996 shows systems at each of the four stages described. Hurricane Edouard, Tropical Storm Fran, Tropical Storm Gustav (soon to be downgraded to a tropical depression), and Tropical Disturbance #8 (which eventually developed into ).

Classifying tropical cyclones 43 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

1. If a tropical storm is downgraded to a tropical depression, what does this mean about the wind speeds?

2. Fewer than 10 percent of tropical disturbances evolve into tropical cyclones. Based on what you have learned about tropical cyclones, why do you think this percentage is so low?

Intensity scales Knot — a measure of speed, used Forecasters responsible for monitoring tropical cyclones have developed in air and water travel, equal to scales to describe a storm’s potential for destruction. Th e U.S. uses the • 1 nautical mile per hour Saffi r-Simpson hurricane intensity scale, shown below. Th is scale ranks • 1.852 km/hr hurricanes in fi ve categories from 1, the weakest, to 5, the strongest. • 1.15 mph Table 1 — Saffi r-Simpson Hurricane Scale The word knot comes from an early device used to measure a Saffi r- Maximum sustained Min. Storm surge ship’s speed. The device consisted Simpson surface of a rope with regularly spaced Category pressure knots tied to a weighted wooden mph km/hr knots mb ft m fl oat called a log. The pilot threw the log overboard, and counted Tropical < 39 < 63 < 34 ------the number of knots that ran out depression while a sand glass emptied. This Tropical 39 – 73 63 – 118 34 – 63 ------gave the speed of the ship in storm nautical miles per hour. H1 74 – 95 119 – 153 64 – 82 > 980 3 – 5 1.2 – 1.5 What is the “H” in H1? H2 96 – 110 154 – 177 83 – 95 979 – 965 6 – 8 1.8 – 2.4 In the North Atlantic, tropical H3 111 – 130 178 – 209 96 – 113 964 – 945 9 – 12 2.7 – 3.6 cyclones are called hurricanes, so H4 131 – 155 210 – 250 114 – 135 944 – 920 13 – 18 3.9 – 5.5 “H” stands for Hurricane. Here, it means the same thing as category. H5 > 155 > 250 > 135 < 920 > 18 > 5.5 Why rank hurricanes? Mb — stands for millibar, a metric Th e categories of the Saffi r-Simpson and similar scales used around unit of . the world estimate the potential for fl ooding and other damage from One mb is 1/1000 of a bar, and is tropical cyclones. Wind speed is related to the surface pressure in the equal to 100 Pa (pascals). Standard center of the hurricane. Th e maximum wind speed and air pressure atmospheric pressure at sea level is 1013.25 mb (29.92 in Hg). refl ect the storm’s energy and destructive potential. Category 3 – 5 hurricanes are considered to be major, and are capable of causing tremendous damage.

44 Classifying tropical cyclones Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Measuring wind speed Th e most meaningful way to measure wind speed is to calculate the average surface wind speed over a period of time. It is then reported as the maximum sustained surface wind speed. Th e main diff erence between intensity scales used by the U.S. and other countries is the length of time over which the wind speed is averaged. Th e World Organization recommends using a 10-minute average, whereas U.S. forecasters continue to use a 1-minute average.

NASA/GSFC Storm surge Storm surge can be the most destructive aspect of a tropical storm Path Strongest winds (Figure 3). Storm surge is a mound of water piled up on the leading edge Highest of a tropical cyclone by strong winds blowing across the ocean surface. surge As the surge washes ashore, it temporarily raises sea level over wide areas of the shoreline. Storm intensity and damage Th e Saffi r-Simpson Hurricane Scale provides an estimate of the damage potential of hurricanes based on wind speeds and storm-surge heights. Figure 3. For Atlantic storms, the surge is usually located in the Use the Saffi r-Simpson chart to answer the following questions. right front quadrant, where the storm’s rotation and its forward 3. As a storm grows from a tropical depression to a Category 5 motion add to produce the hurricane, how do the surface pressure and the wind speed change? strongest winds. This satellite photograph shows Hurricane Andrew approaching the Louisiana coast on August 25, 1992. 4. Storm surge adds to the normal tides for a section of coastline. How would the time of day aff ect the severity of the storm surge striking coastal areas?

5. How high would sea level be if an H3 storm made landfall at high tide and the normal tides range ±2 m from mean sea level?

Classifying tropical cyclones 45 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

6. How high would sea level be if the same H3 storm made landfall at low tide?

40 $ 36.2 35

30

25

20

15

10 $ 7.1 $ 7.0 Damage in billions of dollars $ 5.7 5 $ 3.5

0 H1 H2H3 H4 H5 n = 3 n = 4 n = 15 n = 5 n = 4 Storm category (n = number of storms) Figure 4. Bar graph depicting the average monetary damage inflicted by the top 31 most damaging Atlantic hurricanes of varying strength that made landfall between 1950 and 2005.

Use Figure 4 to answer the following questions. 7. In general, what happens to the damage caused by hurricanes as their intensity increases?

8. About how many times more destructive, in terms of dollar damage, is an average H5 hurricane than an average H1 hurricane?

Logically, property damage should increase with hurricane intensity. However, this chart shows that the most destructive H1 hurricanes caused more damage than the most destructive H2 and H3 hurricanes. 9. Describe a situation where a H1 hurricane could strike land and cause more damage than more intense storms.

46 Classifying tropical cyclones Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Investigation 2.4 Monitoring cyclone growth In an earlier investigation, you examined the path of Hurricane Georges across the Atlantic Ocean. In this investigation, you will use measurements of the wind speed to classify the intensity of the hurricane at each point along its path. Launch ArcView, locate and open the cyclones.apr fi le, and open To turn a theme on or off , click its the Tracking Georges view. checkbox in the Table of Contents. Turn on the 9/15 10:19 UT theme. Th e other Georges satellite image themes should be turned off . Turn on the Storm Centers theme. Activate the Storm Centers theme. To activate a theme, click on its name in the Table of Contents. Using the Identify tool , click the Georges 9/15 storm center. Th e Identify Results window provides information about the conditions at the center of the developing cyclone. 1. Record the pressure in millibars (mb) and wind speed in km/hr What is the “H” in H1? for September 15th in Table 1. In the North Atlantic, tropical cyclones are called hurricanes, so Table 1 — Development of Hurricane Georges “H” stands for Hurricane. Here, it means the same thing as category. Hurricane Georges image date Characteristic How to fi nd 9/15 9/17 9/18 9/20 9/23 9/27 Pressure (mb) use Identify tool Wind speed (km/hr) use Identify tool Category Saffi r-Simpson Scale Rotation look at images

2. Use the pressure and wind speed to fi nd the Saffi r-Simpson category

NASA/GSFC (Table 1 on page 44) on this date and enter it in Table 1 above. path strongest winds Early in the development of a tropical cyclone, the storm begins to highest rotate. Look carefully at the image for evidence of rain bands, a central surge eye, or any other visual clue that the storm has begun to spin (Figure 1). 3. Write either N (none), F (faint), or S (strong) for the storm’s rotation in Table 1. Repeat this process by turning on the other Georges satellite image themes and complete the table for the remaining dates. Figure 1. Hurricane Andrew Close the Identify Results window when you are fi nished. approaches the Louisiana coast on August 25, 1992. Answer the questions on the following page using the table and your observations.

Monitoring cyclone growth 47 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

4. When did Georges fi rst reach hurricane status? How did its appearance change from the previous image?

5. When was Georges at peak intensity?

6. What was Georges’ maximum wind speed at its peak intensity?

Using the Measure tool

Use the Measure tool to measure the diameter of Hurricane Georges at its peak, when its wind speeds were the highest (see Sidebar). Read the diameter in the status bar. Read distance here (your distance will be different).

Position the measuring tool cursor on one side of the hurricane, 7. How wide (in km) was Georges at its peak intensity? then click and drag across to the opposite side of the storm. Read the distance in the status bar. Double-click to stop measuring. 8. How did Georges’ structure change aft er it passed over Haiti and the Dominican Republic?

9. Look at the 9/29 image of Georges. How did the storm’s appearance change? What caused this change?

48 Monitoring cyclone growth Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Catastrophic hurricanes Th e fi nal part of this exercise looks at the life cycles of the most powerful hurricanes, using the 80 Category 4 and 5 hurricanes that have occurred between 1950 and 2005. Th ese storms had wind speeds greater than 210 km/hr (130 mph) and were capable of catastrophic damage. As hurricanes develop and move across sea and land, their energy, wind speed, and potential for damage can change. In this section, you will examine some of these changes and identify where hurricane intensity appears to increase or decrease. Click the QuickLoad button , select the Hurricane Intensity view, and click OK. Th is view shows the storm tracks for all of the Category 4 and 5 hurricanes between 1950 and 2005. Changes in the width and color of the tracks indicate changes in the wind speed as the storms progressed from Tropical Storm to a Category 4 or 5. Now you will examine the relationship of wind speed to storm location in more detail. Th e hurricanes in each of the fi ve outlined areas have unique characteristics. Activate the Catastrophic Hurricanes (km/hr) theme. Select the outline of Area 1 (see Sidebar for Area numbers) by Selecting areas clicking on its boundary line using the Pointer tool . Handles To select an area, click its border (small boxes) appear around the boundary to indicate that it has using the Pointer tool . been selected. “Handles” appear when the area is selected. Below, Area 3 is selected. Click the Select Features Using Graphics button . Hurricane tracks that fall within the outline will be highlighted yellow. Click the Statistics button . Calculate statistics for the selected features of the Catastrophic Hurricanes (km/hr) theme, using the Winds Speed (km/hr) fi eld. handle Select the Basic output option and click OK.

Area locator

5 4 2 3 1

Monitoring cyclone growth 49 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

Th e average wind speed for Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in Area 1 (Coast of Africa to Mid-Atlantic) between 1950 – 2005 is reported in the Statistics window as the Mean. 10. In Table 2, record the average wind speed for the Area 1, and whether the area is over land or over water. Round to the nearest whole number.

Area locator Area Average wind speed Over land or km/hr Over water? 5 1 Coast of Africa to Mid-Atlantic 4  Mid-Atlantic to U.S. East Coast 2 3 Caribbean and Gulf Coast 3 1 4 Eastern U.S. 5 North Atlantic

Close the Statistics window. Repeat the selection and statistics procedures for the other four areas to complete Table 2. Click the Clear Selected Features button to deselect the highlighted hurricane tracks. Turn on the August SST (C) theme. Th e August SST (C) theme shows the average sea-surface temperature, in degrees Celsius, for the month of August. Use the sea-surface temperature map and Table 2 to answer the following questions about Atlantic hurricanes: 11. Describe the location(s) and, if available, the sea-surface temperature where the wind speeds are the highest.

12. Describe the location(s) and, if available, the sea-surface temperature where the wind speeds appear to diminish.

50 Monitoring cyclone growth Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

13. Briefl y describe how wind speed (and thus storm energy) changes a. when hurricanes move over warm, tropical water.

b. when hurricanes move onto land.

c. when hurricanes move over colder water.

d. when hurricanes move over the Gulf of Mexico.

Quit ArcView and do not save changes.

Monitoring cyclone growth 51 Data Detectives: Tropical Cyclones Unit 2 – The Life of a Cyclone

52 Monitoring cyclone growth