Mapping and Navigating the Planetary Crisis Convergence by Michael J
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Crisis and Individuation: Mapping and Navigating the Planetary Crisis Convergence by Michael J. Albert A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland July 2020 © 2020 Michael J. Albert All Rights Reserved Abstract We live in an era of converging global crises, from climate change and mass extinction to political-economic turbulence, energy depletion, food crises, and emerging technological risks. But how will these crises combine and feedback on each other? How might they unfold over the coming years and decades? And what can be done to solve or at least navigate these crises? This dissertation argues that answers to these questions have been hindered by limited efforts so far, both in the field of International Relations and beyond, to develop more holistic analyses of these crises. In large part this is due to the dominance of “isolationist” approaches to the study of global crisis and the social sciences more generally: the tendency to analytically isolate specific systems and problems from other systems with which they’re connected. While isolationist analyses are vital, I argue that they must be supplemented with multidimensional and synthetic analyses in order to adequately grasp the complexity of the contemporary planetary crisis, or what I call the “planetary crisis convergence”, and understand how it may unfold in the coming decades. Overall, this dissertation presents two core arguments. First, that the contemporary world system is on the cusp of a catastrophic discontinuity that will irreversibly transform livelihoods, states, and world order over the next two to four decades. Second, that to see this imminent rupture, understand its causal drivers, and map its possible future trajectories requires a multi-dimensional systems theoretical approach that encompasses political-economic, technological, geological, and ecological processes. To pursue this analysis I develop a theoretical framework drawing from complexity theory, Marxist political economy, and the philosophy of Gilles Deleuze alongside ii natural scientific studies on climate change, food and energy systems, and technological change. In this way the dissertation synthesizes quantitative analyses of key trends in climate, food, and energy systems with qualitative analysis of political economy, technology, power, and resistance in order to illuminate the possible trajectories of the planetary crisis convergence and inform counter-hegemonic responses. It concludes that these crises will most likely force a transition in the world-system towards one of three global-scale scenarios: a Techno-Authoritarian Planetary Leviathan, an Ecosocialist world-system, or a global collapse. It proposes that a democratic ecosocialist world- system is needed to respond to the planetary crisis convergence in a genuinely sustainable and just manner, which would involve a new political-economy based on well-being, post-growth principles, and democratic planning at multiple scales. Defense Committee Daniel Deudney Bentley Allan William Connolly Beverly Silver Simon Dalby iii Acknowledgements There are many humans and non-humans who made this dissertation possible, though I’ll focus mainly on the humans. I first want to thank my primary advisor Daniel Deudney. Dan is one of the great minds and one of the few truly “big thinkers” remaining in the field of International Relations. Very few (if any) others would have allowed such a dissertation to be written under their supervision. His support and inspiration have been foundational to the project, and his critical and constructive feedback have sharpened my thinking throughout my years at Johns Hopkins. Second, I want to give deep thanks to Bentley Allan, who has been a vital source of energy, inspiration, and constructive dialogue throughout the writing of this dissertation. He is doing some of the most important work in the field of IR today and has inspired me to think more deeply about the role IR can play in developing global systemic responses to our planetary predicament. I’ve therefore been honored to have him as an advisor, and I hope (and expect) he will continue to be a rising star in the field of IR and beyond. Third is Bill Connolly, who is one of the most creative and insightful political theorists in the world and the primary reason I came to Johns Hopkins. His generosity, humor, and theoretical eclecticism have made my graduate school experience enriching and energizing from the very beginning. While my thinking has diverged from Bill in some ways since I started at Hopkins, the incredibly deep imprint of his thinking on this dissertation will be utterly obvious to all who are familiar with his work. I am deeply grateful to him for carving a space for those like me who are seeking to develop theoretical work that is radically trans-disciplinary, speculative, and simultaneously planetary, cosmic, and metaphysical in scope. Jane Bennett, Sam Chambers, and Jennifer Culbert have also had a significant influence on the evolution of my thinking, and I’m grateful to them for their input and support over the years. I also want to thank David Scott, who generously agreed to read and help me improve my chapter on Deleuze and Simondon. Beverly Silver and Simon Dalby also deserve great thanks for kindly agreeing to join my dissertation committee, which has really made it an all-star committee all around. Regarding my fellow Ph.D. students, Stephanie Erev, Nils Kupzok, and Jacob Kripp deserve special thanks for taking the time to read drafts of my work and provide incisive feedback. I owe Mason Rayner, Jishnu Guha, Jay Mohorcich, Gregg Tourville, Beth Mendenhall, Quin Lester, and CJ Higgins deep gratitude for our friendship and wide-ranging conversations over these years, which have made me a much smarter human. Mason Rayner in particular got me thinking deeply about political economy at a time when I was allergic to economics, and while I remain economically challenged his influence has made this dissertation far more grounded and attuned to the dynamics of capitalist crises than it would have been otherwise. There are so many others who have shaped my thinking over these years that it is impossible to recount them all. The Johns Hopkins Political Science Department is a powerful cognitive-affective assemblage, and I am so grateful to have been a part of it. There may be no other department where I could have survived as a graduate student. To close, I first want to thank my parents, to whom I owe everything. The privilege they brought me up into, the love and support they gave me, and encouragement iv to find my own path through all its twists and turns, has been all that any human could hope for. I also want to thank Taylor, whose love and support has enriched my life and enabled me to get through the anxiety and stress of simultaneously finishing my Ph.D. and living through a pandemic. Finally, I want to thank the earth, the majestic source of my life (whether indifferent or otherwise) and guiding star of my work. May this dissertation, and hopefully the book to come, be a small contribution to the effort of understanding the immensity of this unprecedented moment in the earth’s history and contributing to the emergence of new forms of life that may bring healing to this world, whether in my lifetime or beyond. Michael J. Albert May 2020 v Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………..ii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………...iv Introduction: Crisis and Individuation…………………………………………………1 The Contemporary Crisis in Historical Context……………………………….......…..7 The Complexity Turn….……………………………………………………………...14 From Marxist Historical Materialism to Deleuzian Planetary Assemblage Theory………………………………………………………………………………...19 Outline of the Dissertation………………………………….………………………...27 Chapter One: The Planetary Crisis Convergence…………………………………....34 The Earth System Crisis………………………………..…………………………….36 The Climate Crisis………………………………………………………………...41 The Structural Crisis of Global Capitalism…………………………………………..47 Global Capitalism and the “Decoupling” Challenge……………………………. .53 The Global Energy Crisis…………………………………………………………….58 Renewable Energy to the Rescue?..........................................................................65 The Global Food Crisis……………………………………………………………....71 Technology as Savior?.................................................................................................76 Nuclear Security……………………………………………………..…………….....83 Biosecurity………………………………...………………………………………….87 Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure………………………………………….....91 State Securitization and Totalitarian Dangers………………………………………..96 Conclusion………………………………………………….………………………...98 Chapter Two: Planetary Crisis, Disciplinary Limits: The Field of International Relations……………………………………………………………………………….100 Biophysical Blindness: Debates on the Future of World Order…………………….104 Isolationism and Agglomerationism………………………………………………...112 Global Environmental Politics…………………………………………………...113 Environmental Security………………………………………………………….123 Foucauldian Critical Security Studies………………………………………………129 Conclusion: Planetary Politics Beyond IR………………………………………….137 Chapter Three: Marxist Analyses of Planetary Crisis (and their limits)…...……..142 Marxist Historical Materialism……………………………………………………...143 Neo-Gramscianism………………………………………………………………….150 World-Systems Theory……………………………………………………………...155 Ecological Marxism…………………………………………………………………168 Beyond