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Ecosystems Mario V. Balzan, Abed El Rahman Hassoun, Najet Aroua, Virginie Baldy, Magda Bou Dagher, Cristina Branquinho, Jean-Claude Dutay, Monia El Bour, Frédéric Médail, Meryem Mojtahid, et al. To cite this version: Mario V. Balzan, Abed El Rahman Hassoun, Najet Aroua, Virginie Baldy, Magda Bou Dagher, et al.. Ecosystems. Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K. Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin -Current Situation and Risks for the Future, Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, pp.323-468, 2021, ISBN: 978-2-9577416-0-1. hal-03210122 HAL Id: hal-03210122 https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03210122 Submitted on 28 Apr 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future First Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR1) Chapter 4 Ecosystems Coordinating Lead Authors: Mario V. Balzan (Malta), Abed El Rahman Hassoun (Lebanon) Lead Authors: Najet Aroua (Algeria), Virginie Baldy (France), Magda Bou Dagher (Lebanon), Cristina Branquinho (Portugal), Jean-Claude Dutay (France), Monia El Bour (Tunisia), Frédéric Médail (France), Meryem Mojtahid (Morocco/France), Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez (Spain), Pier Paolo Roggero (Italy), Sergio Rossi Heras (Italy), Bertrand Schatz (France), Ioannis N. Vogiatzakis (Cyprus), George N. Zaimes (Greece), Patrizia Ziveri (Spain) Contributing Authors: Marie Abboud-Abi Saab (Lebanon), Aitor Ameztegui (Spain), Margaretha Breil (Italy), Thierry Gauquelin (France), llse R. Geijzendorffer (France), Aristeidis Koutroulis (Greece), Jürg Luterbacher (Germany), Moham- mad Merheb (Lebanon), Cesar Terrer Moreno (Spain), Marco Turco (Spain), Elena Xoplaki (Germany) This chapter should be cited as: Balzan MV, Hassoun AER, Aroua N, Baldy V, Bou Dagher M, Branquinho C, Du- tay J-C, El Bour M, Médail F, Mojtahid M, Morán-Ordóñez A, Roggero PP, Rossi Heras S, Schatz B, Vogiatzakis IN, Zaimes GN, Ziveri P 2020 Ecosystems. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 151pp, in press (Final text before page editing for print) 1 Table of Contents 4 Ecosystems ............................................................................................................................ 5 Executive summary ......................................................................................................................... 5 4.1 Marine ecosystems .................................................................................................................... 6 4.1.1 Current condition and past trends .................................................................................................... 6 4.1.1.1 Observed changes ..................................................................................................................... 6 Key habitats undergoing change ....................................................................................................... 8 Coralligenous ................................................................................................................................ 8 Deep sea ecosystems .................................................................................................................. 10 Planktonic ecosystems ................................................................................................................ 10 Large vertebrates ........................................................................................................................ 12 Changes in biodiversity ................................................................................................................... 14 4.1.1.2 Past changes ............................................................................................................................ 17 Response of marine ecosystems to past temperature changes ..................................................... 17 Response of marine ecosystems to past changes in stratification and ventilation ........................ 18 Response of marine ecosystems to past changes in productivity ................................................... 18 Response of marine ecosystems to past changes in pH .................................................................. 19 4.1.2 Projected vulnerabilities and risks .................................................................................................. 19 4.1.2.1 Projected impacts and risks ..................................................................................................... 19 Projected impacts on microbes ....................................................................................................... 20 Projected impacts on primary and secondary production .............................................................. 20 Projected impacts on macrobenthic and pelagic species ............................................................... 22 Corals .......................................................................................................................................... 22 Seagrass ...................................................................................................................................... 23 Mussels ....................................................................................................................................... 24 Jellyfish ........................................................................................................................................ 24 Winners and losers .......................................................................................................................... 24 4.1.2.2 Vulnerabilities .......................................................................................................................... 25 Climate-related vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................ 25 Anthropogenic vulnerabilities ......................................................................................................... 26 4.1.3 Adaptation ...................................................................................................................................... 26 4.1.3.1 Long-term monitoring and adaptation strategies ................................................................... 26 4.1.3.2 The role of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) for adaptation ................................................... 27 4.1.3.3 Management of fisheries and adaptation ............................................................................... 28 4.1.3.4 Adaptation strategies for ocean warming and ocean acidification in the Mediterranean Sea 29 4.1.3.5 Regional observation networks as a tool for adaptation ........................................................ 30 4.2 Coastal ecosystems ................................................................................................................. 31 4.2.1 Current condition and past trends .................................................................................................. 31 4.2.1.1 Observed changes ................................................................................................................... 31 Natural Mediterranean habitats under severe degradation ........................................................... 31 Sandy beaches and sand dunes .................................................................................................. 32 Rocky coasts ................................................................................................................................ 33 Coastal wetlands ......................................................................................................................... 34 Seagrass meadows ...................................................................................................................... 34 Coastal lagoons and deltas ......................................................................................................... 35 Salt marshes ................................................................................................................................ 36 Coastal aquifers .......................................................................................................................... 37 Risks from non-indigenous species ................................................................................................. 37 Phytoplankton ............................................................................................................................. 37 Jellyfish ........................................................................................................................................ 38 Fish .............................................................................................................................................