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Q1 09 Fundraising Update

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Q1 09 Fundraising Update www.preqin.com Preqin Ltd. Q1 2009 Private Equity Fundraising Update Special Report 23rd April 2009 © 2009 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 2 ◄ Q1 2009 Fundraising Update Q1 Overview The Coming Turn in Fundraising As everyone is painfully aware, Fig. 1: fundraising conditions in Q1 2009 were dire. Looking across all private Final Close vs. Original Target equity fund types (venture, buyout, mezzanine, distressed, fund of funds etc.), a total of only 78 funds worldwide achieved fi nal closes, raising $49 billion between them. This represents a return to the kind of levels we were experiencing in 2004 following the trough of the previous fundraising depression. As bad as these headline statistics are, they actually disguise just how bad fundraising conditions had become. Faced with a very diffi cult market, many managers who were on the road decided to cut their losses and declare fi nal closes for funds that may have two-thirds of all funds closed were equity fundraising is set to rebound actually raised most of their funding achieving between 80% and 120% strongly: in interim closes six or twelve months of their targeted amount. Around previously – hence much of the money 15% of funds fell short by more than • LP Intentions: Preqin regularly in the ‘fi nal closes’ total was actually 20%, while 20-25% of funds exceeded surveys LP intentions, and even raised in previous quarters. Very little their targets by 20% or more. The in the depths of the credit crisis new money was committed in Q1 situation deteriorated markedly in Q4 in December 2008 these LPs 2009. 2008 and Q1 2009: only 7% of the were telling us that they generally funds that succeeded in having a fi nal intend to maintain or increase their Although the market has seen close managed to exceed their targets allocations to private equity. There fundraising occurring at a similar pace by 20% or more, while a growing is widespread recognition that the to that of 2004, is important to note proportion, 44% in Q1 2009, fell short 2009 and 2010 fund vintages are that fi ve years ago there were far fewer by more than 20%. likely to be very profi table; managers on the road, and as a result • Valuations Flowing Through: the recent drop in fundraising signals So, is the outlook for fundraising for during Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 far tougher conditions for managers the rest of 2009 equally gloomy? most LPs were in the dark: raising new vehicles than was the case they knew their private equity back then as a result of the increased Absolutely not. At the time of writing portfolios were going to be hit by level of competition. there is much talk of ‘green shoots lower valuations, but the likely of recovery’ in the global economy. extent was unknown. The logical The point is illustrated well by looking Let’s hope that this is indeed the case, answer to this uncertainty was: at the relationship between the but for the sake of our analysis let’s do nothing. Hence the fundraising fi nal close achieved and the fund’s assume that this is a false dawn, and hiatus. September 30 valuations original target (Fig. 1). Throughout the there are further signifi cant troubles are now available, and December fi rst three quarters of 2008, around ahead. Even in this scenario, private 31 fi gures are starting to come © 2009 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 3 ◄ Q1 2009 Fundraising Update ... It would take a brave man to give a detailed forecast “ for fundraising in 2009, but some things are clear. Q1 2009 will prove to have been the low point in this cycle, “ and conditions will now start to improve, probably more rapidly than most people expect... through. LPs’ strategies are Fig. 2: starting to unfreeze, and already during April a growing number of Interim Closes for Funds on Road major investors have announced plans to make further commitments during 2009. Anecdotally, many of the LPs we speak to at conferences and elsewhere talk about making new commitments in Q3 and Q4 to participate in the opportunities they see in the market; • Market opportunities: LPs and GPs know that there will be great investment opportunities in the next couple of years for many fund strategies. Over 1,600 new funds are currently on the road. Competition to raise the money will be fi erce, but the opportunities are and 2005 was 70% above 2004 over the course of 2009. We will see there; levels in terms of aggregate capital more targets being lowered, more • Fundraising Momentum: despite commitments. fi rms holding interim closes and more the challenging conditions, a managers being forced to shelve their historically high proportion of the It would take a brave man to give a fundraising efforts entirely. However, funds currently on the road (44% - detailed forecast for fundraising in although investors will not have the see Fig. 2) have at least achieved 2009, but some things are clear. Q1 same levels of capital to invest as an interim close. These fund 2009 will prove to have been the low they have had in previous years, managers know that conditions are point in this cycle, and conditions will institutional support for private equity diffi cult and fundraising is taking now start to improve, probably more remains strong, and good managers longer than it used to, but they are rapidly than most people expect – Q2 with compelling propositions and LP- achieving traction; may be better, Q3 almost certainly will friendly terms will succeed in raising • Historical Precedent: things be. their funds. looked pretty bleak for fundraising in late 2003 during the last With over 1,600 funds on the road, fundraising trough, but they turned competition will be intense, and a around more quickly than most signifi cant number of managers that people expected: 2004 saw over are currently on the road will be forced double the amount raised in 2003, to re-evaluate their fundraising plans © 2009 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 4 ◄ Q1 2009 Fundraising Update Fundraising Spotlight Global Fundraising Update Q1 2009 Overview downturn in the fi nancial markets as receiving aggregate commitments of the willingness of investors to commit $6.4 billion. The most sizable venture Private equity fundraising remains capital has diminished. Additionally, fund to reach a fi nal close in this period affected by the downturn in the global Q1 2009 shows a 70% decrease in is managed by Palo Alto-based Essex economy, with the number and value the aggregate value of closed funds Woodlands Health Ventures. The fi rm’s of vehicles raised in Q1 2009 showing compared to the corresponding period eighth fund closed with $900 million in a decline from the numbers seen in in 2008. committed capital, 14% of the entire previous quarters. Fundraising has amount secured by all venture funds deteriorated compared to Q3 and Fundraising in Q1 2009 by Fund during the quarter. Q4 2008, suggesting that it may take Type some time before the private equity Fund of funds was the other private fundraising market recovers from the 16 buyout funds raised an aggregate equity sector to record signifi cant impact of the tumultuous economic $22.8 billion during Q1 2009, a fall fund closings during the fi rst quarter environment. from the $68.3 billion garnered by 48 of 2009, raising $6.1 billion in the funds in Q4 2008. The largest buyout process. Three mezzanine funds A total of 78 private equity funds fund to realise a fi nal close during closed, securing $800 million, while reached a fi nal close during Q1 2009, the fi rst quarter of 2009 was CVC other types of funds, including raising aggregate commitments of European Equity Partners V, an €11 turnaround, special situations and $49 billion. This represents a 62% billion fund managed by London-based secondaries funds, raised around $1.6 decrease in capital commitments CVC Capital Partners. billion in total. from the $129 billion raised by 203 funds during Q4 2008, and a 55% Real estate funds raised the second Funds in Market decrease from the $109 billion secured highest amount of capital during Q1 by 170 funds in Q3 2008. With Q4 2009, securing $12.7 billion from There are currently 1,673 private traditionally a stronger quarter than investors across 21 funds. The largest equity funds in the fundraising market, Q3, it is no surprise to see a decrease of these is the $2.6 billion Goldman 48 more than was reported in Q4 between the conclusion of 2008 and Sachs Real Estate Mezzanine 2008 and 262 more than the 1,411 Q1 2009. Nonetheless, the scale Partners fund. Consistent with previous funds that were on the road in the of the drop makes it clear that the quarters, more venture funds closed corresponding period in 2008. The private equity industry continues during Q1 2009 than any other type aggregate target being sought by funds to be heavily infl uenced by the of private equity fund, with 25 funds currently in market stands at $879.9 Fig. 1 & 2: Quarterly Fundraising: Q1 2007 - Q1 2009 Q1 2009 Fundraising by Fund Type © 2009 Preqin Ltd. / www.preqin.com 5 ◄ Q1 2009 Fundraising Update Fundraising Spotlight Global Fundraising Update Q1 2009 billion, which is a decrease of 3% from Fig. 3: the $903.2 billion capital sought in Q4 2008. This is the second quarter Quarterly Number and Aggregate Target of Funds in Market: Q1 2007 - Q1 2009 in succession where a decrease in the aggregate capital sought has been recorded, which suggests that fund managers are reining in their ambitions in the fundraising arena as a consequence of the global economic crisis.
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