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ADO Properties S.A. (Adler Real Estate Group) » Real Estate « Published: 22.04.2020 ADO Properties S.A. (Adler Real Estate Group) WKN: A14U78 | ISIN: LU1250154413 | Bloomberg: ADJ GY BUY Before: - Eagles (Adler) are going to fly Price target EUR 35.00 (-) Initial coverage« Share price* EUR 23.88 (47%) We initiate coverage of ADO Properties S.A. (ADLER Real Estate Group) with a BUY *last XETRA closing price In recommendation and a target price of EUR 35.00 (=~50% upside). Our TP is based Initial 2020e 2021e 2022e on our EPRA NAV valuation (EUR 35.54) for ADO on a stand-alone basis. Rental income 131.7 138.0 143.6 EBIT 162.0 165.1 168.6 NAV per share 63.24 65.20 67.21 New real estate group is created: The integration of ADLER and renaming to ADLER Real Estate Group creates one of the largest German real estate companies with a 55 current gross asset value (GAV) of EUR 8.5bn. For comparison: ADO Standalone had 50 45 a GAV of EUR 3.6bn at the end of 2019, while ADLER will integrate a value of EUR 40 4.9bn. Together, the two companies currently own 75,721 units, with 58,000 units 35 30 25 coming from ADLER. ADO previously operated exclusively in the Berlin region. The 20 15 acquisition of ADLER reduces this regional concentration to 25% of the total 10 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 portfolio. Overall, ADO/ADLER will become a serious German player in the ADO Properties S.A. Germany SDAX Germany CDAX Source: Factset residential real estate sector. Key share data Option to consolidate Consus offers opportunity for sustainable growth: Number of shares (million) 44.2: Currently, the new ADLER holds about 25% of Consus - with an option for additional Free Float (in %) 80% 51% until the end of June 2021. With this step, the new ADLER would also include Market Cap (in EURm) 1055: 290k the fast-growing project developer Consus into the group, which speaks for a clear Trading volume (Ø) High (EUR, 52 weeks) 49.84 fundamental strength and promising strategic orientation. Since ADO and Consus Low (EUR, 52 weeks) 13.00 have already agreed on a strategic cooperation agreement in which both parties Shareholder structure agree to work together on current and future projects, and ADO also has a right to ADO Group 20,4% follow up on offers, ADO can already benefit from Consus' market strength (at- Free Float 79,6% equity result) without having rating problems or even having to pay higher interest rates. Investors have always seen Consus as "the weakest link", but ADO/ADLER Corporate calendar Q1 2020 report 20.05.2020 have taken a strategically valuable path with the cooperation plus option, without having to make direct changes in LTV or net debt. Analysts Impact of COVID-19: As a residential player, ADO assumes only a minor impact Mariya Lazarova Analyst from COVID-19. Which will have an impact, however, is the rent cap in Berlin. [email protected] +49 (0) 69 – 920 389 10 Robel Tesfeom Analyst [email protected] FY end: 31.12.; in EURm CAGR (19-22e) 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e +49 (0) 69 – 920 389 10 Net rental income -5.4% 103.3 128.0 134.1 105.6 109.5 113.6 xxx Contakt EBITDA -3.1% 81.0 96.3 93.8 78.8 82.1 85.2 xx FMR Frankfurt Main Research AG EBIT -35.0% 463.6 499.3 613.9 162.0 165.1 168.6 [email protected] 16 Net income before minorities -42.0% 356.0 386.9 601.9 112.2 114.7 117.4 60313+49 Frankfurt (0) 69 - 920 am 389 Main 12 EPS (EUR) -46.3% 8.07 8.77 13.63 2.02 2.07 2.11 Germany FFO 1 -7.5% 54.3 66.8 63.2 46.9 48.5 50.0 +49 (0) 69 - 920 389 10 FFO 1 per share (EUR) 1.23 1.51 1.43 0.84 0.87 0.90 www.fmr-research.de EPRA NAV 8.7% 1,988.8 2,429.5 2,905.7 3,510.5 3,619.7 3,731.0 EPRA NAV per share (EUR) 45.10 55.05 65.79 63.24 65.20 67.21 DPS (EUR) 0.60 0.75 0.75 0.42 0.44 0.45 Market cap/sqm (EUR) 1,749.1 1,526.2 927.1 1,178.0 1,259.1 1,199.1 EV/sqm (EUR) 3,331.4 2,808.6 2,038.0 3,107.5 2,979.7 2,842.9 FFO 1 Yield (%) 2.91% 3.33% 4.46% 3.53% 3.26% 3.36% Source: ADO, FMR Page 1 of 62 ADO Properties S.A. (Adler Real Estate Group) Inhalt Investment Thesis .............................................................................................................................................. 4 SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 The ADO/ADLER/Consus takeover process ....................................................................................................... 9 Current Group structure .............................................................................................................................. 12 Valuation .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 13 ADO: stand-alone valuation ......................................................................................................................... 14 ADLER: stand-alone valuation...................................................................................................................... 15 Consus: stand-alone valuation ..................................................................................................................... 16 Peer group valuation ................................................................................................................................... 17 ADO + ADLER: combined valuation ............................................................................................................. 18 ADO’s company profile .................................................................................................................................... 20 Group structure ........................................................................................................................................... 20 Management/supervisory board ................................................................................................................. 21 Shareholder structure .................................................................................................................................. 22 ADLER’s company profile ................................................................................................................................. 23 Company history .......................................................................................................................................... 23 Group structure ........................................................................................................................................... 24 Management ............................................................................................................................................... 24 Shareholder structure .................................................................................................................................. 25 Consus’s company profile ................................................................................................................................ 25 Group structure ........................................................................................................................................... 26 Management ............................................................................................................................................... 26 Shareholder structure .................................................................................................................................. 27 ADO’s business model ..................................................................................................................................... 28 ADLER’s business model .............................................................................................................................. 29 The residential portfolio .............................................................................................................................. 29 Acquisition strategy ..................................................................................................................................... 29 Financing strategy ........................................................................................................................................ 30 Key management metrics ............................................................................................................................ 30 Employees .................................................................................................................................................... 30 Research and development ......................................................................................................................... 30 Consus’s business model ................................................................................................................................. 31 Page 2 of 62 ADO Properties S.A. (Adler Real Estate Group) Real estate project development for institutional buyers........................................................................... 31 Real estate development for private buyers ............................................................................................... 32 Development of income properties............................................................................................................
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